When will the dollar collapse? Wait six months!
2018 of the year was the first when analysts, and after them, politicians began to seriously talk not only about the need, but also about the real possibilities of “giving up the dollar.” Not complete, which in itself may be too dangerous, but at least partial. And the main thing is that now, almost all over the world, a negative assessment of the “dollar monopoly” is perceived as an axiom. This clearly shows that there is a need to provide not only individual countries, but also business some alternative, the possibility not to put all the eggs in one basket. A basket full of dollars.
At the same time, a variety of options are considered, and in addition to being willing to more actively and even aggressively use their own currencies, many are not opposed to making, for example, a bet on gold. Nevertheless, the euro is rightly considered to be the main and really real competitor of the dollar, and obviously all the somersaults of the economic policy of the current US administration are connected with this. It is clear that to trump the dollar by all possible means, including the direct use of force, Trump and Co. in fact forces Washington’s centuries-long dependence on the Federal Reserve System and its printing press.
However, in the States themselves, many now reasonably doubt that they really should hold onto the dollar so tightly. Moreover, more and more specialists are proposing to extract all possible benefits from the opponents' anti-dollar policy. It is characteristic that there are analysts who, with good reason, argue that the Fed has already managed to test the game against the dollar to a certain extent.
It all started at the end of this spring, when, contrary to expectations, many banks in the Fed did not even think to buy extra dollars, more precisely, hundreds of millions, even billions of dollars. These “superfluous” billions appeared in the world turnover after such countries as Russia, China, India, Turkey and a number of others, as well as some European financial structures, began to dump them through various channels. The reset went both in the form of reformatting reserves, which, by the way, was very active in promoting, and through slightly veiled mutual calculations. But in fact, and in another case, there was only a gradual replacement of dollar-denominated assets for any other, and not in the most significant amounts.
There was no question of any co-ordination of such actions, it would have never occurred to George Soros at the beginning of the summer of 2018 to arrange something like a dollar collapse or panic. Moreover, having felt fried, the Americans themselves, too, suddenly took up the dumping of dollars, but directly, offering to many buyers who had previously been denied the most preferential credit conditions or the transfer of various assets into dollar form.
And here everything could well turn into something like a dollar crash. In any case, the dollar lost against the euro in a matter of days, not just a few tenths of a percent, but interest. In Russia, as in the whole world, the rates of two world currencies diverged like the horns of a trolley bus - 14 June, the euro went to the mark of 74,14 rubles, the dollar - 63,12 rubles. Their ratio was at some point 1,1745, almost like the best times for the euro after emerging from the global crisis, although before that the cross rate had fluctuated around the 1,14-1,15 marks. However, we should not forget that 2017 ended the year at the unthinkable level once - 1,26 dollar per euro, but the descent from it, although it was very fast, turned out to be surprisingly calm.
However, almost synchronous growth of the euro and the dollar followed, many stockbrokers even spoke of the fact that the dollar simply sat on the euro wheel. For example, in Russia, currencies over the summer have pressed the ruble by almost 10 percent - to 81, 39 and 69,97 rubles at the Central Bank rate. At the same time, the ratio of the dollar and the euro between them has changed very slightly - to 1,1632. Please note that almost as many were already in July, just a month after the “speculators' games”. And by the end of the summer, the natural reaction of the speculators to American generosity was a buyback of dollars, as a result of which all fears for the dollar disappeared. And all the hype was asleep.
This is exactly what allowed the dollar, which quite recently pulled the euro into a joint decline in relation to all other currencies, and then alone returning to the so-called uptrend. He also turned out to be quite long-term. From early September to the second decade of November, the dollar managed to add even more than it lost during the speculative game - against the euro it now stands at 1,124. This level is widely recognized as a peak, providing the dollar with invulnerability in case of new speculative games. At the same time, the ruble dollar rate has now reached 67,68 rubles versus 76,07 rubles in euros.
However, analysts, who were polled by Bloomberg in the first days of November, believe that it is too early to rely on both the continued growth of the US currency and its collapse. Although according to the majority, the dollar will still return to the downward trend, but not earlier than 2019 of the year. In any case, this will be facilitated by the expected slowdown in the growth of the American economy, which has practically exhausted all the potential acquired through sanctions and trade wars.
In favor of the dollar can only play data from the labor market, where in general, despite the slowdown of the economy, is expected to peak activity, as well as the next "game" the Fed. In addition, the dollar may well take advantage of the impasse, in which, it seems, the Europeans have already entered, along with the British in bargaining over Brexit.
At the same time, holders of dollar assets do not have serious reasons to fear the opposite effect from anti-Iran sanctions. There will be no significant increase in oil prices, even if Iran is forced to completely stop exports. The OPEC countries have all the opportunities to “not notice the loss of a fighter”, and it turns out that the entire calculation was made for a propaganda effect. China and Russia, as well as a number of other countries, in any case will not refuse to cooperate with the Islamic Republic, and the work of Europeans in setting up anti-ban trade channels will continue with even greater effect.
At the same time, a variety of options are considered, and in addition to being willing to more actively and even aggressively use their own currencies, many are not opposed to making, for example, a bet on gold. Nevertheless, the euro is rightly considered to be the main and really real competitor of the dollar, and obviously all the somersaults of the economic policy of the current US administration are connected with this. It is clear that to trump the dollar by all possible means, including the direct use of force, Trump and Co. in fact forces Washington’s centuries-long dependence on the Federal Reserve System and its printing press.
However, in the States themselves, many now reasonably doubt that they really should hold onto the dollar so tightly. Moreover, more and more specialists are proposing to extract all possible benefits from the opponents' anti-dollar policy. It is characteristic that there are analysts who, with good reason, argue that the Fed has already managed to test the game against the dollar to a certain extent.
It all started at the end of this spring, when, contrary to expectations, many banks in the Fed did not even think to buy extra dollars, more precisely, hundreds of millions, even billions of dollars. These “superfluous” billions appeared in the world turnover after such countries as Russia, China, India, Turkey and a number of others, as well as some European financial structures, began to dump them through various channels. The reset went both in the form of reformatting reserves, which, by the way, was very active in promoting, and through slightly veiled mutual calculations. But in fact, and in another case, there was only a gradual replacement of dollar-denominated assets for any other, and not in the most significant amounts.
There was no question of any co-ordination of such actions, it would have never occurred to George Soros at the beginning of the summer of 2018 to arrange something like a dollar collapse or panic. Moreover, having felt fried, the Americans themselves, too, suddenly took up the dumping of dollars, but directly, offering to many buyers who had previously been denied the most preferential credit conditions or the transfer of various assets into dollar form.
And here everything could well turn into something like a dollar crash. In any case, the dollar lost against the euro in a matter of days, not just a few tenths of a percent, but interest. In Russia, as in the whole world, the rates of two world currencies diverged like the horns of a trolley bus - 14 June, the euro went to the mark of 74,14 rubles, the dollar - 63,12 rubles. Their ratio was at some point 1,1745, almost like the best times for the euro after emerging from the global crisis, although before that the cross rate had fluctuated around the 1,14-1,15 marks. However, we should not forget that 2017 ended the year at the unthinkable level once - 1,26 dollar per euro, but the descent from it, although it was very fast, turned out to be surprisingly calm.
However, almost synchronous growth of the euro and the dollar followed, many stockbrokers even spoke of the fact that the dollar simply sat on the euro wheel. For example, in Russia, currencies over the summer have pressed the ruble by almost 10 percent - to 81, 39 and 69,97 rubles at the Central Bank rate. At the same time, the ratio of the dollar and the euro between them has changed very slightly - to 1,1632. Please note that almost as many were already in July, just a month after the “speculators' games”. And by the end of the summer, the natural reaction of the speculators to American generosity was a buyback of dollars, as a result of which all fears for the dollar disappeared. And all the hype was asleep.
This is exactly what allowed the dollar, which quite recently pulled the euro into a joint decline in relation to all other currencies, and then alone returning to the so-called uptrend. He also turned out to be quite long-term. From early September to the second decade of November, the dollar managed to add even more than it lost during the speculative game - against the euro it now stands at 1,124. This level is widely recognized as a peak, providing the dollar with invulnerability in case of new speculative games. At the same time, the ruble dollar rate has now reached 67,68 rubles versus 76,07 rubles in euros.
However, analysts, who were polled by Bloomberg in the first days of November, believe that it is too early to rely on both the continued growth of the US currency and its collapse. Although according to the majority, the dollar will still return to the downward trend, but not earlier than 2019 of the year. In any case, this will be facilitated by the expected slowdown in the growth of the American economy, which has practically exhausted all the potential acquired through sanctions and trade wars.
In favor of the dollar can only play data from the labor market, where in general, despite the slowdown of the economy, is expected to peak activity, as well as the next "game" the Fed. In addition, the dollar may well take advantage of the impasse, in which, it seems, the Europeans have already entered, along with the British in bargaining over Brexit.
At the same time, holders of dollar assets do not have serious reasons to fear the opposite effect from anti-Iran sanctions. There will be no significant increase in oil prices, even if Iran is forced to completely stop exports. The OPEC countries have all the opportunities to “not notice the loss of a fighter”, and it turns out that the entire calculation was made for a propaganda effect. China and Russia, as well as a number of other countries, in any case will not refuse to cooperate with the Islamic Republic, and the work of Europeans in setting up anti-ban trade channels will continue with even greater effect.
Information