Stratfor: The United States will not be able to directly help Ukraine at the Azov Sea
The Western resource Stratfor, which is related to US intelligence agencies, comes out with a material in which it states "Washington’s understanding of Ukraine’s concerns about the militarization of the Sea of Azov by Russia." The article says that Russia has achieved multiple supremacy over Ukraine in the Azov water area, and this "can also spread the war to the sea".
One of the “problem moments”, as Stratfor analysts say, is the Crimean bridge built by Russia. At the same time, it is added that the bridge “now allows Russia to increase its activity in checking the ships passing under it”.
From the material:
We compared the forces of Ukraine and Russia to the sea. The comparison is not in favor of Ukraine. Its Navy 11 has thousands of military personnel and only 66 warships and auxiliary ships, while Russia has only 25 thousands of seamen in Sevastopol and many times more ships and vessels. And the imbalance is not only quantitative, but also qualitative. Russia in the Sea of Azov keeps around 40 its warships and coast guard boats. This grouping can be easily reinforced from the Crimea. Ukrainian border ships, which are available in Mariupol and Berdyansk, are old. The transfer of ships from Odessa looks problematic.
In the end, analysts of the mentioned structure write that Ukraine needs to rely solely on US assistance in containing Russia in the Sea of Azov. At the same time, the material states that Ukraine should not count on such assistance from Washington, at least in the near future. The arguments are as follows: de jure, the United States does not have the right to send its warships to the Sea of Azov, but even if this happens, it will only “aggravate the nature of the conflict.” That is why Washington is pondering how to "help Ukraine" on the Azov Sea without an American military presence, which is "not yet possible."
One of the “problem moments”, as Stratfor analysts say, is the Crimean bridge built by Russia. At the same time, it is added that the bridge “now allows Russia to increase its activity in checking the ships passing under it”.
From the material:
We compared the forces of Ukraine and Russia to the sea. The comparison is not in favor of Ukraine. Its Navy 11 has thousands of military personnel and only 66 warships and auxiliary ships, while Russia has only 25 thousands of seamen in Sevastopol and many times more ships and vessels. And the imbalance is not only quantitative, but also qualitative. Russia in the Sea of Azov keeps around 40 its warships and coast guard boats. This grouping can be easily reinforced from the Crimea. Ukrainian border ships, which are available in Mariupol and Berdyansk, are old. The transfer of ships from Odessa looks problematic.
In the end, analysts of the mentioned structure write that Ukraine needs to rely solely on US assistance in containing Russia in the Sea of Azov. At the same time, the material states that Ukraine should not count on such assistance from Washington, at least in the near future. The arguments are as follows: de jure, the United States does not have the right to send its warships to the Sea of Azov, but even if this happens, it will only “aggravate the nature of the conflict.” That is why Washington is pondering how to "help Ukraine" on the Azov Sea without an American military presence, which is "not yet possible."
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