Military Review

In Kiev, announced a possible fuel collapse

61
If the supply of Russian oil products ceases, a fuel collapse will break out in Ukraine, leading to RIA News statement by the expert of the Kiev Institute of Energy Strategies Yuri Korolchuk.




Currently, according to the expert, Russia accounts for about 60% of imported fuel, so stopping supplies will cause a catastrophic blow to the Ukrainian market and, accordingly, to the Ukrainians themselves.

This situation in the oil products sector can last up to six months, that is, until the market is reoriented, he said.

Korolchuk reminded that recently a similar situation has already arisen after the reduction of fuel supplies from Russia and Belarus. Gas prices then went up sharply.

The expert noted that Ukraine will not be able to quickly reorient itself, and for her it will be a collapse. In addition, in other markets there may not be additional volumes to cover the Ukrainian deficit. In this case, it is even difficult to assume to what limit the prices of petroleum products will grow. This will really be a catastrophic blow, he added.

At the same time, Korolchuk is confident that Moscow is not interested in stopping supplies, since it will also suffer losses.

In addition, over the past 4, the volume of exports of petroleum products and gas from Russia has only grown, the expert concluded.

Recall that in October Moscow announced the cessation of supplies of petroleum products to Belarus in excess of the needs of the republic. This caused a sharp jump in prices for automotive fuel in Ukraine. According to the Ukrainian media, in some regions prices have increased by 22% or more.
Photos used:
https://ru.depositphotos.com
61 comment
Ad

Subscribe to our Telegram channel, regularly additional information about the special operation in Ukraine, a large amount of information, videos, something that does not fall on the site: https://t.me/topwar_official

Information
Dear reader, to leave comments on the publication, you must sign in.
  1. andrewkor
    andrewkor 12 November 2018 10: 45
    +3
    "Not even half a year has passed ...." It was long ago that this should have been done in relation to both "fraternal" republics !!!!
    1. Voyager
      Voyager 12 November 2018 10: 51
      +11
      What for? The government likes to show itself to be good and noble in the world arena, but you can tighten your belts
      1. hrych
        hrych 12 November 2018 11: 09
        +4
        No, the LPR elections were held, this is a strong move for recognizing independence and moving away from Minsk, and a powerful group was deployed at the border, in 2014 there was a passage yard. Now the elections in Ukraine and to strangle with fuel and in the winter, a very effective measure against the ruling clique, which is similar to the loss of death, do not forget that Poroshenko is an oligarch and the end of hetmanism will lead to the collapse of his business in Ukraine. After all, Gunpowder didn’t conceive auto-feces because of a good life, things were really bad, since it went to the destruction of stability of an already unstable society, but it gave Moscow another reason.
        1. CommanderDIVA
          CommanderDIVA 12 November 2018 12: 17
          0
          The fuel lever to Ukraine will be involved if we are interested in changing the gunpowder to a more adequate leader, for example, Yuli’s now manipulating the lever in Ukraine is not in our interests. Ukrainians will immediately accuse us of influencing the elections and they must support the enemy’s image and we sell them fuel for currency
          1. hrych
            hrych 12 November 2018 12: 25
            +2
            Gunpowder violated the Status Quo with auto-feces, so it is necessary to cool the ardor and put pressure on the wort and this is what the election became, and here is the news. Partly, I had to choose the heads because of the internal coup in the LPR and the assassination of Zakharchenko. But Minsk had clear conditions. And now everything is visible. What is Ukraine’s next stupidity? As with the Nord, they lost the sea, they will get big troubles for crap and cry ...
        2. 210ox
          210ox 12 November 2018 13: 01
          0
          Yes, for their ruling clique it would be a real gift, here they are, "Muscovite reptiles". They are stifling our freedom .. "100% for a second term at least.
          1. hrych
            hrych 12 November 2018 13: 15
            +2
            There’s a double-edged sword, Khrulya will say, but I’ll come to an agreement with the Russian Federation and we don’t forget that most of the population of Nezolozhnaya do not want to fight, nor do they want to suffer for incapacity translates with dictionary wassat Auto-feces, too, is also a double-edged sword, it flirts with the Nazis, but loses believers. In short, porridge and chaos, but unfortunately it is beneficial for us and the sooner this state collapses the better, including for the majority of Ukrainian citizens, a law on citizenship has already been adopted for them and they will receive a Russian passport. It is not known how much more to wait and how much blood will be shed, let’s hope that the elections will end, let the Avakovites, Poltokovtsy, Bandera, Gritsakovtsy and Kolomoites mutter each other tightly.
    2. Machito
      Machito 12 November 2018 11: 02
      +5
      The zrada is overload.
      Ukraine will bend without the fuel of the aggressor country.
      I hope that the sanctions against UkroReykh will be expanded and strengthened until the eofashiks are expelled back to Europe.
      1. dik-nsk
        dik-nsk 12 November 2018 11: 25
        +6
        and what has already been banned from deliveries? this is some kind of supernumerary expert talks about a hypothetical "if .." .. supplies are not canceled, slogans are for the plebs, and business is business - our semi-state oilmen need grandmothers .. but for our own excise taxes we will raise and we will cry about the fuel shortage in the domestic market ..
        1. Nyrobsky
          Nyrobsky 12 November 2018 11: 49
          +2
          Quote: dik-nsk
          and what has already been banned from deliveries? this is some kind of supernumerary expert talks about a hypothetical "if .."

          There is no smoke without fire. If this really happens, then the junta will very quickly have critical days.
          1. kapitan92
            kapitan92 12 November 2018 12: 32
            0
            Quote: Nyrobsky
            There is no smoke without fire.

            hi It turns out that there is! The refusal of the outskirts to supply paid gas turbines for the Russian Navy, significantly adjusted the equipment of our fleet. The problems created for our banks turned into billions of dollars in losses for us. "Kidok" for 3 billion dollars of state debt of the outskirts, constant "assaults" and courts at all levels against the Russian Federation and our companies. This is just a small part of the nasty things we got.
            ,
            Quote: Nyrobsky
            If this really happens, then the junta will very quickly have critical days.

            Why didn't this happen? One gets the impression that our "people's" government warns the junta about possible steps and gives time to prepare for this.
            If you look, then a lot of measures. Of course, the restriction or ban on the export of hydrocarbons and its derivatives, the refusal of Rosatom to extend the life of nuclear reactors and the export of spent fuel. By 2025, they will have 4 reactors shut down, which is 30% of the electricity generated. energy.
            It turns out that Russia is delaying the onset of critical days or is it waiting for something ?! hi
      2. Igor V
        Igor V 12 November 2018 11: 42
        +1
        Quote: Bearded
        Ukraine will bend without the fuel of the aggressor country.

        But experts hope that the aggressor will not be so severe that it will stop deliveries. Rave. Accustomed to say one thing, do another. It's time to end this.
      3. 210ox
        210ox 12 November 2018 13: 04
        +1
        Oh, and by the way ... And why haven’t it yet been bent before? Three winters have survived and still will survive. And do not wait for it to be bent. Once did nothing for this.
        1. Kasym
          Kasym 12 November 2018 20: 47
          0
          It seems to me that the Russian Federation imposed sanctions to block all gray schemes for trade, incl. Fuels and lubricants.
          As if ours did not rush into this market - the refineries have undergone modernization and now instead of deliveries from Russia up to 1 mil. tons of fuel and lubricants we ourselves will have surplus. Although we have near by Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan, which need fuel.
          Kiev can still work out the issue of supplies with Azerbaijan, but the truth is there will not be enough capacity for Nezalezhnaya. Yes, and of the 6 Ukrainian refineries, until recently, only one worked. If others were stolen for scrap, then ... A difficult situation, to which the authorities in Kiev themselves brought. hi
          I wonder how much gas costs in Kiev right now? In Kazakhstan, the AI-95 costs $ 0,45.
    3. Major Yurik
      Major Yurik 12 November 2018 11: 04
      +5
      Quote: andrewkor
      "Not even half a year has passed ...." It was long ago that this should have been done in relation to both "fraternal" republics !!!!

      Well, another achievement of the Sumerians. Along with visa-free gasoline came, you have to limp on foot in Europe! yes And then they took the fashion, on a Russian fuel crowd ride to bomb Russian people, went to Bandera ..... am
  2. Tank jacket
    Tank jacket 12 November 2018 10: 55
    +3
    Lukashenko stopped selling our gasoline in the ATO zone?
    1. Mestny
      Mestny 12 November 2018 10: 58
      +1
      That's what he began to mutter about European integration.
      Russian oligarchs gave a mustache?
    2. Berber
      Berber 12 November 2018 10: 59
      +3
      Oh, this multi-vector. As she fails, leaders of former fraternal republics.
    3. Dym71
      Dym71 12 November 2018 11: 04
      +8
      Quote: Tank jacket
      Lukashenko stopped selling our gasoline in the ATO zone?

      Questions to But father are not very clear, while:
      over the past 4 years, the volume of export deliveries of oil products and gas from Russia has only increased, the expert concluded.
  3. New Year day
    New Year day 12 November 2018 10: 58
    -6
    “You see a speck in a stranger’s eye, but you don’t notice a log in your own eye”
    ------------------
    Rosstat recorded a rise in gas prices in October compared with September by 0,4%, and for 9 months of this year compared with the same period of the past 9,4%. It remains to wait for the statistics of November.
    Rustam Tankayev, General Director of CJSC Infotech-Terminal, leading expert of the Union of Oil and Gas Producers of Russia: “If the agreement between the government and the oil industry lasts long enough, say, within a year, then out of 24 thousand filling stations in Russia, 12 thousand will remain.
    At those gas stations that survive, the prices will correspond to the agreement, only there will be no gasoline there. There will be a deficit. It will be unprofitable to produce and sell it. Therefore, everything that can be done in order not to produce it, the oilmen will do. Soon the canister will cost 5 thousand rubles. This is what awaits us in the near future. "
    1. Alexander Romanov
      Alexander Romanov 12 November 2018 11: 10
      +1
      Quote: Silvestr
      It remains to wait for the statistics of November.

      Today at the gas station Rosneft-Solar 46r. And on the flagship of the solarium 56r. If the flagship is closed, I will not cry. Gas is everywhere
      1. New Year day
        New Year day 12 November 2018 11: 13
        -3
        then in vain Kozak met with oil workers, everything is fine
      2. Tiksi-3
        Tiksi-3 12 November 2018 11: 43
        +1
        Rosneft Solar today - 44.5 rubles on Lukoil - 44,7
    2. Consultant
      Consultant 12 November 2018 11: 22
      +3
      Quote: Silvestr
      gas will not be there. There will be a shortage of it. It will be unprofitable to produce and sell. Therefore, everything that can be done so as not to produce it, the oil industry will do. Soon the canister will cost 5 thousand rubles

      Do you believe what you quote? And by the way, this is only one of the opinions given in the article from which you pulled it out. Here is another:

      We do not have a market relationship, but a bargain, when today they are trying to sniff without thinking about the consumer. Also with oil companies. Do they earn little money? Yes, they make decent money. The poor and unfortunate cannot ensure normal pricing for the domestic market.

      If the state wanted to take a tough approach to these issues, it would be possible to put very strict restrictions on firefighters and say: until you fill the market with products, do not send a liter of gas abroad. It seems that the government promised it, but let's see how it will keep the promise

      http://www.kuzpress.ru/economy/12-11-2018/63839.html

      That is, there are no real reasons for such a price increase? Have the appetites of oil refineries? Well, prescribing the right diet for them is the business of the government’s economic unit, let them work their salaries laughing
      1. New Year day
        New Year day 12 November 2018 13: 43
        -3
        Quote: Consultant
        Do you believe what you quote?

        I believe in price tags at gas stations

        Quote: Consultant
        That is, there are no real reasons for such a price increase?

        Gas taxes
        Income tax - (on the cost of gasoline) - 4,8%
        Excise tax - 12%
        VAT - value added tax - 15,3%
        MET - mineral extraction tax - 16,9%
        If you knock out the total percentage ratio of 4,8 + 12 + 15,3 + 16,9 = 49%.
        How will taxes change from January 2019 and how will this affect the price of gasoline?
        Quote: Consultant
        Well, prescribing the right diet for them is the business of the government’s economic unit.

        the history of this debt is hopeless

        Quote: Consultant
        let salaries work out

        Yeah, work out!
        1. Consultant
          Consultant 12 November 2018 13: 46
          0
          Quote: Silvestr
          Soon the canister will cost 5 thousand rubles

          The canister is 20 liters. That is, you predict the price of 250 rubles. per liter.

          Your graphs in this case should turn into at least a parabola. And they (for five years now) have been posing as direct ... strange, huh? wink
          1. New Year day
            New Year day 12 November 2018 14: 09
            -1
            Quote: Consultant
            The canister is 20 liters. That is, you predict the price of 250 rubles. per liter.

            not me, but those who trade.
            Quote: Consultant
            Your graphs in this case should turn into at least a parabola. And they (for five years now) have been posing as direct ...

            zoom out of the picture.
            If there is no difference between 28 and 37 (92nd) or between between 31 and 40 rubles (95th), then yes. And if you take the prices of 2018, then the differences in 31 and 45-47 rubles for the 95th are really not - the line on the chart is straight
            1. Consultant
              Consultant 12 November 2018 14: 43
              -1
              Quote: Silvestr
              zoom out

              Yes, even as you turn it around - the line will still remain straight laughing

              The graph shows that the price is growing by 2 - 3 rubles / liter. in year. More than two, less than three. To grow up to 250 rubles / liter. within a year, the price should "get" more than 200 rubles for this year. AND it doesn’t fit directly.

              Quote: Silvestr
              not me, but those who trade

              Well, it’s not they who threw it here. And you, too, protect them, not them.

              It smacks of panic. Or provocation. You yourself, what do you think is more like? wink
              1. New Year day
                New Year day 12 November 2018 15: 51
                -1
                Quote: Consultant
                You yourself, what do you think is more like?

                to prepare for higher fuel prices
                1. Consultant
                  Consultant 12 November 2018 15: 59
                  0
                  Quote: Silvestr
                  Quote: Consultant
                  You yourself, what do you think is more like?

                  to prepare for higher fuel prices

                  I’m not about that, you did not understand.

                  Do you think it is more convenient to be considered a panicist or a provocateur? wink
                  1. New Year day
                    New Year day 12 November 2018 16: 34
                    -2
                    Quote: Consultant
                    Do you think it is more convenient to be considered a panicist or a provocateur?

                    realist
                    1. Consultant
                      Consultant 12 November 2018 17: 00
                      -2
                      Quote: Silvestr
                      Quote: Consultant
                      Do you think it is more convenient to be considered a panicist or a provocateur?

                      realist

                      Laudable desire.

                      Little is left to become one. And for starters, stop clogging the Internet with these pictures:

    3. mvg
      mvg 12 November 2018 12: 17
      +3
      24 thousand gas stations in Russia will remain 12 thousand

      And in our area, over the past 3-5 years, the number of gas stations has doubled ... and almost everywhere there are lines. They dig them back?
      And I can't understand why ordinary Ukrainians are to blame, for gasoline for 60-70 rubles ... For example, the price of 45 crushes me. To "drain" the pig, do you need to put a whole, once brotherly people on their knees? Maybe it was necessary to keep an eye on the closest neighbor for these 25-27 years? The politicians miscalculated, and obviously. There was at least some kind of ally, now the closest enemy and problem. Moreover, in both directions.
  4. Consultant
    Consultant 12 November 2018 10: 59
    +5
    in October Moscow announced termination of supplies to Belarus oil products in excess of the needs of the republic. it caused in Ukraine sharp jump in fuel prices

    Something rzhu ... communicating vesselstype laughing
    1. Igor V
      Igor V 12 November 2018 11: 46
      0
      Moscow not only stopped deliveries, but gave a loan in the amount that Belarusians received for the resale of our fuel.
      1. Consultant
        Consultant 12 November 2018 13: 49
        0
        Quote: Igor V
        Moscow did not just stop deliveries

        Not the point. I was simply amused by the explicit indication of where this excess went.
        1. Igor V
          Igor V 12 November 2018 18: 29
          +1
          It was an open secret. smile
          1. Consultant
            Consultant 12 November 2018 18: 38
            -2
            Quote: Consultant
            explicit indication
  5. Ros 56
    Ros 56 12 November 2018 11: 00
    +1
    And-and. what stupid bandera, it's not about the possible, but about the real future fuel crisis and not only about the fuel crisis, but also about the financial crisis. Money for transit - bye-bye. Download further pan-head, bask, after all, winter is coming.
  6. bessmertniy
    bessmertniy 12 November 2018 11: 00
    0
    Let them think with their heads, before blurt out that they will manage without Russia. Buy our gas through other countries more expensive. So it can be with oil. hi
  7. Mamuka Petrovich
    Mamuka Petrovich 12 November 2018 11: 02
    +1
    Yes, how so, WORLDWIDE teamed up with Ukraine against achresore wassat
  8. Servisinzhener
    Servisinzhener 12 November 2018 11: 02
    0
    It was high time to close the faucet for them. And not only for oil but also for other types of raw materials that can be used in the defense industry.
  9. Guru
    Guru 12 November 2018 11: 08
    0
    For a long time it was necessary that tanks and infantry fighting vehicles in the Donbass had nothing to refuel.
  10. Alexey-74
    Alexey-74 12 November 2018 11: 09
    0
    As in a joke ...... "And what about us .....?" .....
  11. sgr291158
    sgr291158 12 November 2018 11: 10
    +1
    Cover them all, let them buy in their fraternal Europe.
  12. taiga2018
    taiga2018 12 November 2018 11: 10
    0
    as long as we have at least one freak in our leadership who believes in "brotherhood", we will continue to provide all the necessary for this misunderstanding ...
  13. Tank jacket
    Tank jacket 12 November 2018 11: 13
    +1
    Quote: Consultant
    in October Moscow announced termination of supplies to Belarus oil products in excess of the needs of the republic. it caused in Ukraine sharp jump in fuel prices

    Something rzhu ... communicating vesselstype laughing

    Ahhh, now I see, thanks.
  14. svp67
    svp67 12 November 2018 11: 25
    +1
    Currently, according to the expert, Russia accounts for about 60% of the imported fuel,
    So explain to me what kind of a war with "Ahressor"
    1. Dym71
      Dym71 12 November 2018 11: 36
      +2
      Quote: svp67
      So explain to me what kind of a war with "Ahressor"

      Hybrid, understand! I remember, I don’t remember there - chamomile! bully
  15. dik-nsk
    dik-nsk 12 November 2018 11: 27
    +1
    Quote: andrewkor
    "Not even half a year has passed ...." It was long ago that this should have been done in relation to both "fraternal" republics !!!!

    and what did you do? in the article not a word about "done", but only "if you do .."
  16. Operator
    Operator 12 November 2018 11: 31
    0
    Damn, we have a shortage of gasoline, prices are rising, but then someone drives him abroad.

    Total sanctions are needed both for Ukraine and Belarus, and whoever violated it should confiscate the refinery from it, and the latter in sunny Magadan.
  17. akudr48
    akudr48 12 November 2018 11: 44
    -1
    Russia will not leave its business partners in Kiev, will help them in difficult times.
    Fuel and how to help them there.
    But what, we are brothers ...
  18. Antares
    Antares 12 November 2018 12: 08
    +5
    deliveries from the solar RF have always been more than from RB. And cheaper!
    By the way, it is more profitable to sell to Ukraine than on the domestic market (more benefit)
    The largest volumes of deliveries were made from Russia: in the first quarter of 2018, diesel fuel produced by Russian refineries amounted to 526,3 thousand tons, which is more than double the volumes for the same period in 2017.
    In the first quarter, deliveries of Belarusian-made diesel fuel decreased by 23,6% - from 553,1 thousand tons to 422,4 thousand tons. One of the reasons is the termination of the Euro-1 standard diesel fuel with a sulfur content from 4 January 10 to 50 mg / kg.
    As a result, the share of Belarusian diesel fuel in import amounted to 39,1%.
    The growth in deliveries from Lithuania amounted to 32,6%: in the first quarter of 2018, 82,1 thousand tons of diesel fuel were sent from the Mazeikiai Refinery to Ukraine, 80% of Orlen diesel fuel was contracted by WOG, SOCAR, KLO, Alliance Oil Ukraine, and AMIC.
    According to fuel laws (switch to Euro 5)
    domestic producers (Kremenchug refinery and Shebelinsky gas processing plant) already produce diesel fuel of only Euro-5 class.
    The Kremenchug refinery (the operator Ukrtatnafta) produces light oil products (A-92 and A-95 gasolines, diesel fuel and jet fuel), dark oil products - fuel oil and bitumen, as well as liquefied gas. The current processing capacity of crude oil at the enterprise is about 10,5 million tons per year. Shebelinsky GPP is a gas condensate and oil processing plant with further production of oil products (gasoline, diesel fuel, liquefied gas, etc.). Today the plant produces Euro-4 and Euro-5 ecological class gasolines and Euro-5 diesel fuel only.
    I hope that now the priority will be to domestic fuel producers — not importers from the Russian Federation and Belarus with Lithuania. For there was a time when they sold the refinery (to the same Russians) and they stopped.
    Nevertheless, to realize the collapse, it is necessary to abruptly stop deliveries under contracts. It will also cost something. And it is profitable for Russians to sell directly to Ukraine and through gaskets in Belarus.
  19. Avior
    Avior 12 November 2018 12: 11
    0
    expert of the Kiev Institute of Energy Strategies Yuri Korolchuk.

    an openly fake "institute" without an address and without a website on the Internet.
  20. Snow_sm
    Snow_sm 12 November 2018 12: 12
    +1
    But what is interesting for almost 5 years that they almost run the equipment in atom / oos? But there aren’t scooters with lawn mowers: (..... cunning @ w @ our posts are off scale ...
  21. BAI
    BAI 12 November 2018 13: 08
    0
    If the supply of Russian petroleum products ceases, fuel collapse will erupt in Ukraine, RIA Novosti reports a statement by Yuri Korolchuk, an expert at the Kiev Institute of Energy Strategies.

    And why did this question arise? Deliveries will never stop.
  22. bratchanin3
    bratchanin3 12 November 2018 13: 16
    +1
    The worse on Krajina, the worse the juntas are to the fascists, the better for Russia. Well, how much can you support the Bandera regime, especially since all normal people have gotten away from there, basically, there are only self-styled people left.
  23. tuts
    tuts 12 November 2018 16: 47
    +2
    Recall that in October Moscow announced termination of supplies to Belarus petroleum products in excess of the needs of the republic. It caused in Ukraine, a sharp jump in prices for automobile fuel. According to Ukrainian media, in some regions, prices rose by 22% or more.

    Belarusians weld well on supplies
    1. razved
      razved 12 November 2018 22: 34
      0
      "Not bad" is sooooo mildly ...
  24. razved
    razved 12 November 2018 22: 33
    +1
    This is an aggressor country !!! Everything else also supplies fuel to its victim ... This is a direct confirmation of the hybrid war against Durkain ...
  25. LeonidL
    LeonidL 13 November 2018 05: 12
    0
    All that you frighten with collapse, all that you make us nervous ... Well, we are waiting for this! We wait! Come on, move it! Collapse, do not be distracted, mother!