Dedollarization: ruble per euro, euro per dollar. Pull-pull ...
With all the ties between the Russian economy and the world economy, it is necessary to weaken dependence on the dollar - you can't argue with the president. However, getting involved in a fight, it would be nice to understand what bumps and bruises you will stuff in it. However, once under the sanctions, you can seemingly never pay attention to anything. Meanwhile, not only business, but also ordinary people, dedollarization can cost too much.
It is clear that various prohibitions and restrictions are always ready to take advantage of all sorts of speculators and unscrupulous officials. All the problems with the national currency are, in fact, largely contrived, since the ruble has long been turned into a kind of surrogate for the dollar, moreover, a surrogate tied to oil. More precisely, the problems of the ruble are not far-fetched, but artificially created by financial regulators, ostensibly in order to maintain financial stability.
Here, it can be said, on one line, the formation of the notorious social budget, and the fight against inflation, and the creation of state reserves for a rainy day. And since the black day for most Russians has come, and for a long time, you can do almost anything with the ruble. But only as long as it does not respond by voting "against" in the elections. The September votes, it seems, the Central Bank and the Ministry of Finance did not seem to be enough, and our financial gurus, among other things, seem to be playing the next “patriotic card” of opposition to the dollar.
And although there was never even a talk about the complete abandonment of the dollar, the threat of dollar savings has already pushed many citizens to withdraw money from foreign currency accounts. It got to the point that banks significantly - somewhere in one and a half, or even twice increased the rates on deposits in dollars and euros. If only customers do not run away. However, this is not a bet, but tears. One and a half percent instead of 0,75 in Raiffeisen Bank and 3,1 percent in VTB, but only for the rich with deposits more 3000 dollars. About the other threat, to cover the direct exchange in banks, let's say at all briefly: after all, those who are lucky enough to go abroad, again, will have to pay for this at an exorbitant price.
There are big doubts that business will benefit a lot from the switch to rubles in commodity trading. In principle, we can force someone to buy rubles for the sake of buying our oil, gas, iron and steel products and even aluminum and military equipment. But it is not entirely clear that we can then purchase for these rubles for ourselves. Technologies, components, food and high-quality consumer goods? And then for the reverse exchange you will also have to overpay, and overpay, most likely, a lot.
Oleg Vyugin, one of the most authoritative and still very popular experts in the journalistic environment, who held various posts related to currency exchange and now teaches at the HSE, recalled that the dollar is not only the world reserve currency, but also the base currency. According to it, all key prices are fixed. And it is not yet known what transactional losses are incurred by those who refuse the dollar on all fronts.
The expert noted that when the whole world trades and is calculated in dollars, it is hardly possible to go alone to settlements in another currency without much damage. In our opinion, the key word in this assessment is “alone.” The euro therefore became a competitor to the dollar, because it was not worked out alone, but at once by all the powerful Old Worlds in industrial terms. It is no coincidence that the European Union and the single euro began sometime with a continental agreement on steel. Yuan is now struggling to find support, by the way, in the same BRICS, so should we with him ruble refuse it?
It is worth noting here that the competitive position of the euro against the dollar today, after almost two decades of its circulation, is, frankly, not the strongest. According to the estimates of the European Central Bank, in international settlements, the turnover in the euro came close to the dollar. Oleg Vyugin recalled that it is still not clear to many in the same Europe why Russia, selling more than half of its energy resources to the euro area, receives dollars for them.
However, the euro, although it became in fact the second world currency, is still noticeably inferior to the dollar in many ways. For example, the shares in the reserves of most countries. The dollar accounts for 62 percent of global debt, and it is unlikely that anyone will convert such debts into other currencies. More than half, more precisely, 56 percent of loans in the world is issued in dollars, while in euros - only 20 percent. Almost half, 44 percent of the turnover of the foreign exchange market, is also dollar, and only 16 percent is denominated in euros. But with all this, one thing is for sure: on the old continent in everyday life it is quite possible to do without a dollar, which is not true of Russia.
However, all this, you see, is reasoning at the level of that same Lenin cook, and the head of state voiced a generally sound idea. Why operate with dollars where their presence is not necessary? And here, making a bet, and a long-term bet, on the ruble, it would be quite nice to adopt the experience of introducing the euro into circulation. Long-term, with careful preparation and support for the growing housekeepers of Germany, France and Italy, although of their currencies only the Deutsch mark was once able to withstand the pressure of dollars.
In this respect, the ruble is compared with both the brand and the euro, which is much harder. No one is in a hurry to go directly into the calculations, although China does not seem to mind paying rubles for Russian oil and gas. But what about China, we cannot understand with the partners in the EAEU in any way, what and what we will consider. As Tigran Sargsyan, chairman of the Eurasian Economic Commission of the EEC, rightly noted, talk about altyn remained as it was, and even the allied Belorussia denies the Russian ruble, not to mention Kazakhstan and others.
However, let us still be objective - it is within the framework of the EAEU that progress in abandoning world currencies is evident. According to the estimates of the same EEC, perhaps slightly embellished, more than half of Eurasian transactions are already carried out in national currencies. The common customs space helps quite well, although, as is known, the growth of mutual trade of the five EAEU member countries after the initial leap has long been seriously stalled.
But far less serious positions of the ruble in BRICS, on the general get-togethers of which, too, much was said about giving up the dollar. Here are just a benefit to refuse? It would seem, it would seem, to aim a blow at a certain currency BRICS project in the image and likeness of the same euro. But here, first of all, it is no less fraternal than European unity, and preparation that is as long and solid as in Europe. And with this, our partners are in trouble. In comparison with the ruble, it is only the yuan that definitely wins, but you can’t say anything about the Indian rupee, the Brazilian real and the South African rand.
Although in BRICS, starting somewhere in the middle of 2016, contracts and transactions denominated in national currencies have already started. Exceptionally bilateral, of course. India, it seems, is generally only for the sake of otvyazki from the American dominance in the IT-sphere is almost ready to rush into China’s arms. With all the global contradictions of these two countries, they are interested in economic cooperation. And here, by the way, the intermediary role of Russia is very important, in whose absolute loyalty neither Delhi nor Beijing doubts.
A ruble can be fully entitled to claim leadership in the EEU, but in BRICS he will have to know his place as a marginal, that is, rarely used currency. No, relying on the yuan, you can at least plan to create some kind of a single means of payment. This will have to be done, and better sooner than later. At least in order to, together with India, South Africa and Brazil, not turn their central banks into branches of the People’s Bank of China. By the way, not quite adapted to the real market work - in the absence of control by the CPC Central Committee.
It seems that the ruble simply has nowhere to go, except to settle in the rearguard of the euro, helping him to become an even more serious opponent to the dollar. But in general, any claims of the ruble to participate in the formation of a new world financial order can become real, alas, only after the lifting of sanctions. And above all, as rightly noted by KPMG experts, sectoral, which relate to access to financial resources of the West. Access to high technology here is generally secondary.
KPMG noted that the abolition of financial sanctions is more realistic simply due to the fact that very few people pay attention to them. Even American banks, traditionally extremely cautious and law-abiding, continue to buy Russian federal loan bonds. How they do it is not our problem, but more than a quarter of Russian sovereign bonds still hold financial investment structures of the USA and Europe. But the new sanctions that were once initiated by the late Senator McCain, along with his colleagues, were precisely the ones that prohibited it.
It is clear that various prohibitions and restrictions are always ready to take advantage of all sorts of speculators and unscrupulous officials. All the problems with the national currency are, in fact, largely contrived, since the ruble has long been turned into a kind of surrogate for the dollar, moreover, a surrogate tied to oil. More precisely, the problems of the ruble are not far-fetched, but artificially created by financial regulators, ostensibly in order to maintain financial stability.
Here, it can be said, on one line, the formation of the notorious social budget, and the fight against inflation, and the creation of state reserves for a rainy day. And since the black day for most Russians has come, and for a long time, you can do almost anything with the ruble. But only as long as it does not respond by voting "against" in the elections. The September votes, it seems, the Central Bank and the Ministry of Finance did not seem to be enough, and our financial gurus, among other things, seem to be playing the next “patriotic card” of opposition to the dollar.
And although there was never even a talk about the complete abandonment of the dollar, the threat of dollar savings has already pushed many citizens to withdraw money from foreign currency accounts. It got to the point that banks significantly - somewhere in one and a half, or even twice increased the rates on deposits in dollars and euros. If only customers do not run away. However, this is not a bet, but tears. One and a half percent instead of 0,75 in Raiffeisen Bank and 3,1 percent in VTB, but only for the rich with deposits more 3000 dollars. About the other threat, to cover the direct exchange in banks, let's say at all briefly: after all, those who are lucky enough to go abroad, again, will have to pay for this at an exorbitant price.
There are big doubts that business will benefit a lot from the switch to rubles in commodity trading. In principle, we can force someone to buy rubles for the sake of buying our oil, gas, iron and steel products and even aluminum and military equipment. But it is not entirely clear that we can then purchase for these rubles for ourselves. Technologies, components, food and high-quality consumer goods? And then for the reverse exchange you will also have to overpay, and overpay, most likely, a lot.
Oleg Vyugin, one of the most authoritative and still very popular experts in the journalistic environment, who held various posts related to currency exchange and now teaches at the HSE, recalled that the dollar is not only the world reserve currency, but also the base currency. According to it, all key prices are fixed. And it is not yet known what transactional losses are incurred by those who refuse the dollar on all fronts.
The expert noted that when the whole world trades and is calculated in dollars, it is hardly possible to go alone to settlements in another currency without much damage. In our opinion, the key word in this assessment is “alone.” The euro therefore became a competitor to the dollar, because it was not worked out alone, but at once by all the powerful Old Worlds in industrial terms. It is no coincidence that the European Union and the single euro began sometime with a continental agreement on steel. Yuan is now struggling to find support, by the way, in the same BRICS, so should we with him ruble refuse it?
It is worth noting here that the competitive position of the euro against the dollar today, after almost two decades of its circulation, is, frankly, not the strongest. According to the estimates of the European Central Bank, in international settlements, the turnover in the euro came close to the dollar. Oleg Vyugin recalled that it is still not clear to many in the same Europe why Russia, selling more than half of its energy resources to the euro area, receives dollars for them.
However, the euro, although it became in fact the second world currency, is still noticeably inferior to the dollar in many ways. For example, the shares in the reserves of most countries. The dollar accounts for 62 percent of global debt, and it is unlikely that anyone will convert such debts into other currencies. More than half, more precisely, 56 percent of loans in the world is issued in dollars, while in euros - only 20 percent. Almost half, 44 percent of the turnover of the foreign exchange market, is also dollar, and only 16 percent is denominated in euros. But with all this, one thing is for sure: on the old continent in everyday life it is quite possible to do without a dollar, which is not true of Russia.
However, all this, you see, is reasoning at the level of that same Lenin cook, and the head of state voiced a generally sound idea. Why operate with dollars where their presence is not necessary? And here, making a bet, and a long-term bet, on the ruble, it would be quite nice to adopt the experience of introducing the euro into circulation. Long-term, with careful preparation and support for the growing housekeepers of Germany, France and Italy, although of their currencies only the Deutsch mark was once able to withstand the pressure of dollars.
In this respect, the ruble is compared with both the brand and the euro, which is much harder. No one is in a hurry to go directly into the calculations, although China does not seem to mind paying rubles for Russian oil and gas. But what about China, we cannot understand with the partners in the EAEU in any way, what and what we will consider. As Tigran Sargsyan, chairman of the Eurasian Economic Commission of the EEC, rightly noted, talk about altyn remained as it was, and even the allied Belorussia denies the Russian ruble, not to mention Kazakhstan and others.
However, let us still be objective - it is within the framework of the EAEU that progress in abandoning world currencies is evident. According to the estimates of the same EEC, perhaps slightly embellished, more than half of Eurasian transactions are already carried out in national currencies. The common customs space helps quite well, although, as is known, the growth of mutual trade of the five EAEU member countries after the initial leap has long been seriously stalled.
But far less serious positions of the ruble in BRICS, on the general get-togethers of which, too, much was said about giving up the dollar. Here are just a benefit to refuse? It would seem, it would seem, to aim a blow at a certain currency BRICS project in the image and likeness of the same euro. But here, first of all, it is no less fraternal than European unity, and preparation that is as long and solid as in Europe. And with this, our partners are in trouble. In comparison with the ruble, it is only the yuan that definitely wins, but you can’t say anything about the Indian rupee, the Brazilian real and the South African rand.
Although in BRICS, starting somewhere in the middle of 2016, contracts and transactions denominated in national currencies have already started. Exceptionally bilateral, of course. India, it seems, is generally only for the sake of otvyazki from the American dominance in the IT-sphere is almost ready to rush into China’s arms. With all the global contradictions of these two countries, they are interested in economic cooperation. And here, by the way, the intermediary role of Russia is very important, in whose absolute loyalty neither Delhi nor Beijing doubts.
A ruble can be fully entitled to claim leadership in the EEU, but in BRICS he will have to know his place as a marginal, that is, rarely used currency. No, relying on the yuan, you can at least plan to create some kind of a single means of payment. This will have to be done, and better sooner than later. At least in order to, together with India, South Africa and Brazil, not turn their central banks into branches of the People’s Bank of China. By the way, not quite adapted to the real market work - in the absence of control by the CPC Central Committee.
It seems that the ruble simply has nowhere to go, except to settle in the rearguard of the euro, helping him to become an even more serious opponent to the dollar. But in general, any claims of the ruble to participate in the formation of a new world financial order can become real, alas, only after the lifting of sanctions. And above all, as rightly noted by KPMG experts, sectoral, which relate to access to financial resources of the West. Access to high technology here is generally secondary.
KPMG noted that the abolition of financial sanctions is more realistic simply due to the fact that very few people pay attention to them. Even American banks, traditionally extremely cautious and law-abiding, continue to buy Russian federal loan bonds. How they do it is not our problem, but more than a quarter of Russian sovereign bonds still hold financial investment structures of the USA and Europe. But the new sanctions that were once initiated by the late Senator McCain, along with his colleagues, were precisely the ones that prohibited it.
Information