Military Review

Is there life without a dollar?

33
For a long time it was considered an axiom that to live without a dollar is to live in complete isolation, like North Korea or, like the USSR, behind the iron curtain. However, the reality is increasingly testifying: this is not quite so, even not at all.




Decades after Bretton Woods, any country that is ready to classify itself as "civilized", in the hope of financial and economic stability, relied on the dollar. The status of the American currency as virtually the only reserve supported the global financial system since the Second World War. Even the socialist camp, including the Soviet Union, was looking at the dollar, and was happy to accept "green", for example, from the third world countries.

Charles de Gaulle tried to drive a ship with dollars to American shores in exchange for natural gold, and it cost him the presidency. Then, somehow, Britain rattled up with its unsinkable pound, but George Soros and Co. brought it down immediately. Iran, for just one hint of the refusal of dollar payments for oil, was immediately driven under sanctions.


Perhaps, in the basis of the dollarization of Russia - the sympathy of its first president of Russia to George Soros?

Recently, there have been several attempts to get away from the hard dollar press, but they all failed. But only for the reason that the protesters, as a rule, acted alone. However, after China and Russia, having managed to attract as remaining observers of the remaining BRICS members, took up the development of a system competing with SWIFT (a community or association of international interbank wire transfers), the prospect of a mass rejection of the dollar can hardly be considered so fantastic.

It seems that the Federal Reserve System of the United States brings faith in their own unsinkability. Strange as it may seem, so far this belief is underpinned by not the economic, or even the military might of the United States, but ... do not be surprised at the exorbitant scale of American debt. After all, it is still considered, and not without reason, that it is more expensive to act against the dollar.

The thing is that for many years, and not only for the last seven decades of the omnipotence of the dollar, the American financial system has virtually enmeshed the whole world with a colossal debt network. Despite the fact that almost all of them owe the United States, but the United States owes the world to almost everyone. Most of all must, of course, their own people, but now it is not so important.

From their own, you can somehow pay off, even for years, even for centuries. And even it is not so important that state staff may, on occasion, ask from anyone for past dollar infusions. More importantly, they will not leave any chance not to recover any of the old debts. What is there to return, the interest will not pay.

But the well-being of very, very many financial institutions around the world is built just on the American percentage. The 2008-2009 crisis, when only a couple of pebbles collapsed from a monumental dollar debt wall - the notorious foundations of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, demonstrated this quite brightly. But in the current situation, going to exacerbate the political confrontation with several potential partners at the same time, and at the same time to trade wars with those with whom it was hardly worth fighting at all, the United States, one might say, asked for it.

There are more and more countries under American sanctions now, and this actually pushes them into each other’s arms. So far, integration structures like BRICS or our post-Soviet EAEU are too weak, and in economic terms they are largely superficial. Moreover, due to internal contradictions, they are not at all prepared to come out in a united front against the same dollar. Moreover, there is still no real financial interest. Again, more expensive.

The volume of transactions on the scale of the EEU, and even more so BRICS, is just scanty compared to the turnover, one way or another tied to the dollar, even through the euro, even through the yuan. So far, the costs of organizing mutual settlements in own currencies significantly exceed the losses incurred by the inevitable conversions into dollars and back - this kind of dollar dues.

But this is only for now. Recall that when the prospect of rapid growth in domestic trade turnovers in the same EAEU was real, Presidents Nazarbayev and Lukashenko talked to each other about the single ruble, and about Altyn. Only the president of Russia kept his composure, who rather soberly assessed the contribution of Eurasian calculations to the total volumes of Russian foreign trade. In addition, he understood that at the first complications fraternal friendship may turn out to be, so to speak, not very fraternal. And to all proposals of Russia to carry out calculations in Russian rubles, all our allies and today invariably refuse.

Nevertheless, quite a few countries have already turned up in the anti-dollar ranks. Keep silent about North Korea, but ignoring the same Iran or Venezuela, with all the American pressure on them, will be far from all. The financial systems of Cuba, Sudan, Zimbabwe, Myanmar and the Democratic Republic of the Congo are already set up almost unequivocally against the dollar, but this, you see, weak support in case of a really serious currency war.

Unlike these countries with microeconomics, China, Pakistan and even Iran, not to mention Turkey, are unable to give up dollar incomes. Although it is Turkey, with its growing economy, no matter what, the economy has, for this, perhaps the best starting points. And, alas, it is unlikely that Russia can be counted on the anti-dollar front, as some foreign media have already done. Our oil and gas contracts for years ahead are billions of dollars and euros. It would seem possible to demand rubles instead, but how will we spend them then? Are pensions a hundred times higher? But with the obligatory hyperinflation in this case, that is exactly what will happen.

Nevertheless, day after day with the filing of the US administration, which means that it is not without taking into account the views of the Federal Reserve System, which is responsible for the dollar, lists of people who are actually excluded from the dollar turnover are replenished. We are talking about the sanctions lists, which not only citizens, but also business structures fall mainly from the countries listed above. But not only, people and banks from the second row have already begun to fall - from among those who do business with representatives of the first row.

The situation begins to resemble a snowball, which in the end is capable of absorbing just everyone. And is it possible to stop such a com, that is the question? After all, it is known that anyone who conducts transactions through a US bank or simply calculated in US dollars is automatically subject to the US legal system. In this regard, any unilateral sanctions, be they against Iran or Russia, put the governments of all other countries, as well as companies, banks and private individuals before the dilemma: either you suspend business with those who fell under sanctions, or out of the American economy - still number one in the world.

There is a persistent feeling that not so much the American establishment as the American business is ready for confrontation with the whole world. And whether all this will now cost Donald Trump the presidency, let the Americans themselves figure it out, but there is no doubt that it cannot but cost the dollar dearly.



However, one should not doubt that the Fed has professionals who can benefit if not for the dollar as such, then for American finance from any critical situation. It is enough to understand that a completely possible weakening of the American currency will only reduce the same debt burden on the US budget and, in addition, will give a competitive advantage to American manufacturers.

It remains to be recalled that post-reform Russia has, by the way, its very successful experience of living without a dollar. Today, few people remember that it was perhaps the first international decision of Prime Minister Yevgeny Primakov after he was put in charge of the government. And it was the turn of the aircraft over the Atlantic. Airplane flying to Washington for new US loans. Of course, the dollar.

Is there life without a dollar?


The authoritative “Kommersant” in those days estimated the premier’s decision at 150 billions of “greens”. And the country, meanwhile, under Primakov, not only did she not get into new debts, but paid off all the old ones, including the Soviet ones. Moreover, only a few months after the default, the domestic economy began to stir, in which the first step was to increase the enormous “non-payments”, including the currency ones.

Another effective means that helped to rise from the knees of the Russian industry and agriculture, was extremely hard currency control. Striking contrast with current decisions on currency liberalization. Yes, the country continued after 98 after August, and now continues to earn currency mainly due to the sale of oil and gas. But if twenty years ago, the internal turnover managed to get rid of the dollar overnight and make it exclusively ruble, then today we only have to dream about this.

Not so long ago, in the days of the “Crimean aggravation” and the war in the Donbas, the United States seriously considered “isolating” Russia from the dollar. Someone from the most patriotic Duma members immediately dropped: “That would be a glorious reason to say“ Thank you! ”To the US federal reserve.



Although the real reason for the euphoria then, alas, was not. One can imagine how much “green” would cost on the black market in Russia. But ... something did not come together at the Federal Reserve. Whether the subcontractors have failed, or Tel Aviv and Riyadh, in unison, screamed: “Nooo!”
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33 comments
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  1. Henderson
    Henderson 12 September 2018 10: 23
    +4
    However, one should not doubt that the Fed has professionals who can benefit if not for the dollar as such, then for American finance from any critical situation. It is enough to understand that a completely possible weakening of the American currency will only reduce the same debt burden on the US budget and, in addition, will give a competitive advantage to American manufacturers.

    the same professionals work in Russia who constantly benefit from the dollar in any situation.
    1. lucul
      lucul 12 September 2018 10: 50
      +3
      Quote: Henderson
      the same professionals work in Russia who constantly benefit from the dollar in any situation.

      Yeah - Zionist professionals))
    2. Greg Miller
      Greg Miller 12 September 2018 11: 23
      +8
      In Russia, they are simply led by those who, starting in the 90s, constantly robbing the country and exporting the loot abroad, translating it into dollars. For them, life without a dollar is impossible ....
      1. Andrey Yuryevich
        Andrey Yuryevich 12 September 2018 13: 29
        +5
        Is there life without a dollar?
        ... all my life I have been without him ... manure in the garden, I only buy in rubles. yes
        1. Henderson
          Henderson 12 September 2018 14: 09
          -1
          dung is possible for free, and when you need something sensible - prepare dollars
    3. podymych
      12 September 2018 15: 32
      0
      That's the point! Professinals, who seem to have passed control at the Fed, the KGB rests ...
    4. pudelartemon
      pudelartemon 12 September 2018 20: 24
      0
      Yes, only for yourself, not for the country
  2. parusnik
    parusnik 12 September 2018 10: 33
    +8
    Yes, the country continued after August 98, and now continues to earn foreign currency mainly due to the sale of oil and gas
    ... Port charges, it seems, until 2016 were charged in cu ... Now, the rates of these charges in rubles ... and the calculation is in rubles ...
  3. Zolotse
    Zolotse 12 September 2018 10: 34
    +1
    Yes, Russia is full of "professionals" who, under the pretext of sanctions, are helping to "drop" the ruble, and it would be more difficult for them to explain if the Americans hadn't rushed in with the sanctions ...
  4. igorbrsv
    igorbrsv 12 September 2018 10: 54
    0
    What does it mean to oppose the dollar is more expensive request Who prevents the oligarchs from storing the loot in another currency. But the rest of the debt and gold still will not be returned. There was simply no country with a national currency capable of competing with the dollar. Here yunan will do now. You can’t go far on gold, it’s not enough for everyone.
  5. orphan 63
    orphan 63 12 September 2018 10: 54
    +12
    laughing In a very rich Jewish family, old Moysha teaches his grandson:

    - And now, Yosik, I will reveal to you the biggest secret of our prosperity. One day the president will say that he does not change a mediocre government just because "these are already experienced" and "survived crises." From now on, you must be on your guard. Remember?
    - Remember, grandfather.
    - Then the head of this very government will suddenly say that he advises everyone to keep money in rubles. Here you have to get ready, collect all your rubles in one pile. And even take them wherever you can.
    - Well, grandfather.
    - Well, when the Minister of Finance begins to reassure: "Do not buy dollars. The government and the Central Bank have all the tools to ensure the financial stability of the state" ...
    - Then I have to calm down?
    - Coming! Just at that moment grab this whole bunch and urgently, you hear, URGENTLY run to the bank to change them for dollars! This 100% means that the smart-assed poets from the government want to throw everyone and again muddied the crisis.
  6. helmi8
    helmi8 12 September 2018 11: 02
    +5
    And the country, meanwhile, under Primakov, not only did not begin to climb into new debts, but paid off all the old ones, including the Soviet ones. Moreover, only a few months after the default, the domestic economy began to stir, in which the colossal “defaults”, including currency ones, were expanded first.

    Unfortunately - we still haven’t seen yet another Primakov ... Earth he rest in peace ...
    1. prapor55
      prapor55 12 September 2018 19: 43
      +2
      Primakov at that time ordered to pay off the arrears of monetary allowances with the military until the end of 1998. There were 5 (five) weeks and five months of debt left and each week we were given money. The man of word and deed was hi
    2. gurta
      gurta 12 September 2018 22: 12
      -1
      Quote: helmi8
      Unfortunately - we still haven’t seen yet another Primakov ... Earth he rest in peace ...
      Duck left Primakov then. To Haifa, Tel Aviv with suburbs, Jerusalem. There are many in the USA, Canada. And they’ll leave Russia. Leave is listed. Mikhanov and stayed ...
  7. Ros 56
    Ros 56 12 September 2018 11: 08
    +1
    After all, we live, we don’t die. And before the Second World War they lived without it. And they lived even when this country was not in the project.
    1. Henderson
      Henderson 13 September 2018 00: 44
      -2
      You do not confuse life and survival.
  8. Strashila
    Strashila 12 September 2018 11: 24
    +7
    "Is there life without a dollar?" ... is there life without foie gras ... of course there is ... you just need to work honestly, and not tear the loot and throw it out of the country ... Evgeny Primakov has proved this in modern history that it is necessary think about the homeland, and not about how to look beautiful in the eyes of Americans.
  9. Antares
    Antares 12 September 2018 12: 03
    +2
    Primakov, of course, well done, but the current situation is far from that. He would not be able to play by these rules. The conditions had changed and he would not have been given a blank check.
    1. Barnaul, Altai
      Barnaul, Altai 12 September 2018 21: 41
      +2
      Then the situation was much worse!
  10. Berkut24
    Berkut24 12 September 2018 12: 32
    +3
    It seems that it is possible to demand rubles instead, but how will we spend them later?

    Yes, it’s just that you don’t need to be afraid. It is necessary to strive for this. Yes, we will sell for rubles, but where will the buyer get these rubles? That's right - in the foreign exchange market. The essence of this option is that the ruble will become an international convertible currency, and the Central Bank of the Russian Federation will become the operator of the entire ruble-dollar-euro. Thus, intricate operations with the withdrawal of foreign currency from resource mining companies are cut off. And the rest too. If you want to pay a large sum for the cordon - go to the bank, justify the expenses and pay in rubles. Next, automatic conversion on the course and forward. Well, if you could not justify ....
    1. Henderson
      Henderson 12 September 2018 14: 15
      0
      Quote: Berkut24
      If you want to pay a large sum for the cordon - go to the bank, justify the expenses and pay in rubles. Next, automatic conversion on the course and forward. Well, if you could not justify ....

      this will automatically lead to the heyday of the black foreign exchange market and an even greater fall of the ruble. With all the consequences.
  11. shinobi
    shinobi 12 September 2018 12: 44
    +2
    Leaving under the green is a forced measure. The United States is preparing the world for a new global slaughter and we have already been identified as enemies. Most likely it will be in Ukraine after some bloody provocation on the border with Russia according to the 2008 scenario. We will introduce a contingent, NATO will rush to defend the ruin. And away we go. Although they can organize a batch of China & Japan according to the Falklands scenario.
  12. Cottager452
    Cottager452 12 September 2018 16: 20
    -3
    The abandonment of the dollar in the current conditions will lead to unbridled issue of the ruble and devaluation.
  13. samarin1969
    samarin1969 12 September 2018 17: 48
    +3
    In the XNUMXth century, they did not dare to take a vodka monopoly for a long time. Now it is enough to introduce strict controls on the American currency and on the "new Americans" themselves in the Russian Federation.
  14. Bazarov
    Bazarov 12 September 2018 18: 05
    +5
    Is there life without a dollar?

    There is life without a dollar, but not with a dollar.

    Under Stalin, the declared gold content of the ruble was 0,222168 grams of pure gold, i.e. rubles were issued under the already perfect labor and goods became cheaper every year, in the United States dollars are issued under the promised labor (inflated treasury bills), therefore inflation was built from the beginning, not all the "promises" are fulfilled, for example, the promise to repay $ 21,475 trillion http: / /webdiscover.ru/v/22301 has remained a promise, and the "money" against these "bills" has already been issued and spent.

    Hence the "Koscheevy eggs" dollar.
    Each bill for which $ is issued has its own yield and maturity. There are three types of "collateral" $:
    - Treasury bills (Treasury bills, T-bills) - short-term up to 1 year;
    - Treasury notes (Treasury notes) - from 1 year to 10 years
    - Government bonds (Treasury bonds) from 10 years to 30 years.

    The latter are the most important for "securing" the dollar. The last trading on them yesterday stopped at the promised yield of 3,09% over 10 years and 3,06% for Treasury bonds for 20 years.
    https://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=longtermrate

    And now attention, the inflation rate in the USA is approaching 3,8%
    https://www.statbureau.org/ru/united-states/inflation-calculators?dateBack=2017-1-1&dateTo=2018-1-1&amount=1000

    And this means that all long-term US obligations are now unprofitable.
  15. plant15
    plant15 12 September 2018 19: 56
    0
    Almost unambiguously against the dollar, the financial systems of Cuba, Sudan, Zimbabwe

    A small note. Zimbabwe abandoned its own currency because of its complete hopelessness, replacing it with just the bucks.
    "On April 12, 2009, it became known about the ban on the circulation of the Zimbabwean dollar. Instead, residents of the country began to use US dollars, British pounds sterling, as well as the currencies of neighboring countries with a more stable economy."
    "On May 4, 2016 the Reserve Bank announced its intention to issue obligations in the form of banknotes (English Zimbabwe Bond Notes) in denominations of 2, 5, 10 and 20 dollars. The need to issue obligations is caused by a shortage of cash in circulation. The bank's message notes that the dollar The United States has practically displaced other currencies used in the multicurrency system (rand, euro, pound sterling, yuan, pool, Australian dollar, Indian rupee, yen) from circulation. Since 2009, the share of the US dollar in money circulation has increased from 49% to 95% and the share of the rand decreased from 49% to 5%. " Wiki.
    Quite a voluntary choice. Not rands, but bucks.
    It does not seem in any way that they are "definitely against the dollar", rather the opposite. They are inside the dollar and practically without an intermediary in the form of the national currency.
    By the way, the well-known colonel, for some reason, was also not "unambiguously against the dollar", but kept funds in dollars and a little in euros, but not in the national currency.
    Stupid, it’s immediately obvious that he didn’t read the correct articles in RuNet.
    1. Bazarov
      Bazarov 13 September 2018 09: 08
      +1
      On May 4, 2016, the Reserve Bank announced its intention to issue bank notes (Zimbabwe Bond Notes) in denominations of $ 2, 5, 10, and 20. The need to issue liabilities is due to a shortage of cash in circulation.

      This means that if a regular dollar is issued under treasury bonds with a maturity and% income, then Zimbabwe Bond is simply printed and most likely under Zimbabwe obligations. It's like a fairy stone story on about. Yap. http://zagadki-istorii.ru/dengi-2.html
      When a German official put black crosses on huge stone “money” as belonging to Germany and the island became poor, and then they built roads and infrastructure on the island and he erased these crosses as their salary for work and again they felt rich.
      Money is only an agreement within society to use something as a means of payment ...
  16. bandabas
    bandabas 12 September 2018 20: 53
    +2
    Primakov, in contrast to the nonesh unsinkable "ministers", was a person. And today's government is a "team" of saboteurs and saboteurs.
  17. Darth gazgkull
    Darth gazgkull 12 September 2018 20: 58
    +2
    Down with this lousy green piece of paper!
  18. Barnaul, Altai
    Barnaul, Altai 12 September 2018 21: 39
    +1
    And as an article, minus one for this moronic phrase:
    "Our oil and gas contracts for the years to come are billions of dollars and euros. It seems like it is possible to demand rubles instead of them, but how will we spend them later? Are we really going to increase pensions hundreds of times? But if hyperinflation is mandatory in this case, this will be the case."

    This is what fright will hyperinflation, the author, explain? Monetization of our market is underestimated at least four times. This is indicated, for example, by the same Glazyev. That is, we can increase the money supply several times without inflation at all!
    1. Bazarov
      Bazarov 13 September 2018 09: 25
      +2
      ... we can increase the money supply several times without inflation at all!

      We cannot do without inflation, but another thing is that 10,4 trillion rubles were taken from the budget for the reorganization of PJSC Bank FC Otkritie, PJSC Binbank, PJSC Promsvyazbank. The result was the effect of the "Great Depression" of 1929-1933, when artificially the United States created a shortage of cash, and there was no other money at that time.
  19. Appraiser
    Appraiser 15 September 2018 11: 52
    0
    As long as the shadow world government will exist and the dollar will exist .... Their state of wealth is the "gold currency" reserves. Abandoning the dollar and paying in gold for gas and oil (energy resources) will lead to a third world war ... hi
  20. nikvic46
    nikvic46 18 September 2018 10: 46
    0
    A large cash supply for one state is a weakness, for another it is a weapon. In the second case, the country sets the base for its own currency and throws dollars into the foreign market. But different opinions
    on this, the law for a bachelor who erases the collar of a shirt and lapels of sleeves reminds me, and believes that
    shirt in lace. In the absence of competition inside, we have a formidable external. We change the laws according to
    concepts, although there is a Constitution, and a violation of any article should be punishable by law, It is unfortunate that no such law was invented. Any change or amendment to the Constitution should be published
    in the media.