Military Review

Where is the bottom for a falling ruble exchange rate? Expert opinion

54
Statements from macroeconomics experts are published on what to expect in the future from the ruble exchange rate in relation to foreign currencies - primarily to the dollar and the euro. Alpari Senior Analyst Anna Bodrova for "Vesti.Ekonomika" declares that the fall of the ruble at this stage is the bottom, and it is located at 66,5 rubles per dollar and 79 rubles per euro.


It is noted that a further fall in the ruble exchange rate, which analysts associate with the introduction of US sanctions against a number of Russian businessmen and 15 Russian public companies, is limited to relatively high oil prices. So far, the structure of the Russian economy is such that it is the cost of a barrel of oil in the 68-71 dollars area that “hinders” the dollar and the euro from delivering a more significant blow to the Russian currency.

Where is the bottom for a falling ruble exchange rate? Expert opinion


Other experts believe that the depreciation of the ruble does not occur without certain operations on the part of the Russian government. On the one hand, such statements may seem untenable, however, the experts' arguments force at least attention to these theses.

From the moment the Urals oil barrel overcame the 40 dollar barrier, the Russian government turned to currency purchases. In this case, since the beginning of 2017, the state monitored the oil and gas revenues of the year. To date, a balance has been achieved in which simultaneous increases in oil prices to 65-70 dollars per barrel of Brent crude and a depreciation of the ruble allow the cabinet to generate impressive revenues from petrodollar operations alone, contributing to the fulfillment of basic social obligations and more for later".

Moreover, the sharp fall in the ruble and the sinking of the entire market of investors, who first began to “run” from the market, “moved” in the opposite direction. So, today, against the background of yesterday's sharp peak, all the main sectors of the Russian economy have gone up: from chemical and petrochemical (+ 3,56%) to telecommunications (+ 2,9%) and metallurgical (+ 5,3%). The MICEX index added almost 4% and again climbed to the 2,1 mark thousand points.
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  1. New Year day
    New Year day April 10 2018 18: 00
    +25
    there’s simply no bottom. It all depends on the perception of this bottom.
    “The financial abyss is the deepest of all the abysses, you can fall into it all your life.” Oh. Bender
    1. Logall
      Logall April 10 2018 18: 02
      +8
      Quote: Silvestr
      O. Bender

      I do not think that this "authoritative" expert was worth quoting here ... Moreover, he is fictional!
      There are enough real ones, but those who are worth listening to will not say anything ... They are now busy with these operations!
      It’s clear that the matter is dark!
      1. SRC P-15
        SRC P-15 April 10 2018 18: 09
        +8
        Where is the bottom for a falling ruble exchange rate? Expert opinion

        The more experts, the more opinions! And that means the bottom can be multi-layered.
      2. dauria
        dauria April 10 2018 18: 14
        +27
        those who are worth listening to will not say anything ... They are now busy with these operations!


        Hehe .... Here the people on the next branch shout about the third world war. Like, cheers and checkers for the battle. And the “people” at the top just weld the loot .. Put the duffel bag and military ID back, you’ve been told - a dollar of 66 per rupee, and continue to live. wassat
      3. New Year day
        New Year day April 10 2018 18: 24
        +12
        Quote: Logall
        There are enough real ones, but those who are worth listening to will not say anything ... They are now busy with these operations!
        It’s clear that the matter is dark!

        it’s just that nothing depends on us. How to establish the course, so be it. Is anyone interested in our opinion and desires?
        A drop in the ruble exchange rate on the government’s hand, all the promises of GDP can be financed.
        1. Logall
          Logall April 10 2018 18: 27
          +21
          Quote: Silvestr
          Is anyone interested in our opinion and desires?

          If "they" listened to my opinion, then they would have died through one! And the rest were sick ...
          1. New Year day
            New Year day April 10 2018 18: 31
            +10
            Quote: Logall
            If "they" listened to my opinion, then they would have died through one! And the rest were sick ...

            I think your opinion is in solidarity with the majority. The hitch is that "they" are not even going to know about this fact
          2. Major Yurik
            Major Yurik April 10 2018 19: 01
            +11
            Quote: Logall
            Quote: Silvestr
            Is anyone interested in our opinion and desires?

            If "they" listened to my opinion, then they would have died through one! And the rest were sick ...

            Well, gentlemen, you are so evil! Today, I gave DAM to Putin enthusiastically talking about macroeconomic indicators, they are on the rise (I did not look further, turned off the TV with spitting). So after brandy, I became absolutely sure of the future! yes
            1. New Year day
              New Year day April 10 2018 19: 34
              +4
              Quote: Major Yurik
              Today DAM Putin talked enthusiastically about macroeconomic indicators, they are on the rise (did not look further, turned off the TV with spitting)

              so it’s all on the rise, while the rest have a fall. Law of energy conservation
              1. Sotskiy
                Sotskiy April 11 2018 11: 40
                0
                Quote: Silvestr
                so it’s all on the rise, while the rest have a fall. Law of energy conservation

                Surely maybe the magnet of energy attraction should already be taken away from a big-age child, or will he cry, and does Putin regret this?
        2. Anti-Corr.
          Anti-Corr. April 10 2018 19: 18
          +3
          Quote: Silvestr
          A drop in the ruble exchange rate on the government’s hand, all the promises of GDP can be financed.

          But what about the 75th article of the Constitution?
      4. vovanpain
        vovanpain April 10 2018 18: 25
        +5
        Quote: Logall
        There are enough real ones, but those who are worth listening to will not say anything ... Oh

        Sanya, one figure knows where the bottom is, but he won’t say it, since the bunks are polishing laughing Do you remember such Ulyukaev, he, too, was looking for the bottom of the crisis. yes
        1. Ingvar 72
          Ingvar 72 April 10 2018 19: 30
          +3
          Quote: vovanpain
          Do you remember such Ulyukaev, he, too, was looking for the bottom of the crisis.

          Now he is looking after his bottom so that his cellmates do not pick. wassat
      5. Freeman
        Freeman April 11 2018 01: 24
        0
        Quote: Logall
        Quote: Silvestr
        O. Bender

        I do not think that this "authoritative" expert was worth quoting here ... Moreover, he is fictional!

        Do not be so categorical. hi
        One of the "literary fathers" of Ostap Bender, Ilya Ilf (at the birth of Jekhel-Leib Arievich Fainzilberg.), Was the son of a bank clerk. And before he became a writer, he managed to work as an accountant. So, in finance, I understood something. What he told through his literary hero.
    2. Maz
      Maz April 10 2018 18: 05
      +1
      Blessed is he who believes
      1. Grandfather
        Grandfather April 10 2018 18: 09
        +2
        Where is the bottom for the falling ruble?
        where is the bottom, where is the bottom ... look up.
      2. rocket757
        rocket757 April 10 2018 18: 12
        +3
        Dark for the uninitiated, it will be more accurate!
        Initiates, consider those interested, this is exactly the point!
    3. siberalt
      siberalt April 10 2018 18: 23
      +1
      Where is the bottom, where is the bottom? And why is the bottom of what is hanging out in the hole, as in the entire post-Soviet space? winked
    4. Captain Pushkin
      Captain Pushkin April 10 2018 18: 40
      +3
      Quote: Silvestr
      there’s simply no bottom. It all depends on the perception of this bottom.
      “The financial abyss is the deepest of all the abysses, you can fall into it all your life.” Oh. Bender

      As soon as the ruble’s fall curve finally breaks the head off with the naibulina (on the spot) and an adequate character is put in its place, the curve will immediately go up.
      1. Lesorub
        Lesorub April 10 2018 20: 18
        +4
        Quote: Captain Pushkin
        As soon as the ruble’s fall curve finally breaks the head off with the naibulina (on the spot) and an adequate character is put in its place, the curve will immediately go up.

        The amount does not change from the change of place of the terms! )), When the centro-bank is nationalized, then maybe something will change, and membership in the WTO is not clear to anyone who benefits.
  2. Serge Gorely
    Serge Gorely April 10 2018 18: 03
    +20
    Even before any Crimean events, Siluanov collapsed the ruble. He bleated something, misunderstood him, but the course did not return. Here the connection is simple - a bit of the electorate in the elections was planted, now it is necessary to return. As they say, there is no reason to raise prices. Therefore, prices will rise without reason.
  3. Altona
    Altona April 10 2018 18: 05
    +11
    I personally do not see any prerequisites for the “bottom”, and the fall of some stock quotes of companies of some derivatives is not a reason for the depreciation of the national currency. The world will not stop from the dog barking and the sky will not collapse to earth. The United States has long been not the hegemon he imagines himself to be. But our financial mongrel logically breshet and profit from the situation.
    1. Xroft
      Xroft April 10 2018 18: 24
      +7
      the euro rose by 9 rubles a dollar by 5 ... well, of course * there is no bottom * only now after 3 months all cars, electronics, clothes, food will go up by 10%. Given that after stabilization, they did not even fall
  4. Apollo
    Apollo April 10 2018 18: 14
    +1
    The process of imposing sanctions is only at the initial stage, therefore it is extremely far-sighted to believe that this will end. This is just the beginning.
    Remember the beginning of 2014 and the end. History tends to repeat itself ...
  5. Comrade Kim
    Comrade Kim April 10 2018 18: 15
    +11
    The Central Bank conducts an attack on the ruble.
    Sahibzadovna fulfills studies in the structure of the State Department?
    Information:
    Elvira NABIULLINA studied at Yale University, and then passed the International Visitor Leadership Program - a leadership training program for foreign personnel. Therefore, the US Embassy was so happy about her appointment as head of the Central Bank
    “Instead of taking standard measures for the financial regulator, the Central Bank leadership promises speculators not to take them, provoking an attack on the ruble,” Glazyev noted and added that the statement that the free float of the ruble dampens external shocks is contrary to common sense: obviously that it, on the contrary, only strengthens them. "
    https://business.tsargrad.tv/news/sergej-glazev-a
    merikanskie-sankcii-mogli-by-voobshhe-ne-povlijat
    -na-kurs-rublja_124429
    1. Captain Pushkin
      Captain Pushkin April 10 2018 18: 48
      +3
      Quote: Comrade Kim
      Elvira NABIULLINA studied at Yale University, and then passed the International Visitor Leadership Program - a leadership training program for foreign personnel. Therefore, the US Embassy was so happy about her appointment as head of the Central Bank

      Help.
      The leadership training program for foreign personnel, by the way, was also held in the USA: Dalia Grybauskaite, Angela Merkel and Teresa May. Nabiulin of the same field is a berry.
  6. ivan0vitch
    ivan0vitch April 10 2018 18: 20
    +3
    there is no bottom. 500r for $, and there the denomination is to cut off zero or two. already, three zeros cut off
  7. samarin1969
    samarin1969 April 10 2018 18: 20
    +9
    If the Americans are announcing sanctions against systemic state-owned banks, then we will see a dollar at 80. This is the price paid for an “open” economy. It’s hard to wait for any real countermeasures: for the “top” it would simply be “unnatural”.
  8. taiga2018
    taiga2018 April 10 2018 18: 23
    +2
    we will argue about this very bottom, while our businessmen and officials will not associate their future with Russia, but with the West ...
    1. sapporo1959
      sapporo1959 April 10 2018 18: 29
      +3
      I do not even know? The guys here write that they’re like for Russia and they’re ready to give the last shirt .. Here I wait when they give it back! By the way, today, Comrade Siluyanov has already advised dear Russians not to hope for the state and to save for retirement themselves. So, young people go ahead!

      https://vz.ru/news/2018/4/10/916922.html
      1. New Year day
        New Year day April 10 2018 18: 34
        +2
        Quote: sapporo1959
        By the way, today, Comrade Siluyanov has already advised dear Russians not to hope for the state and to save for retirement themselves. So, young people go ahead!

        but what about patriotism? Around whom will we rally?
        1. taiga2018
          taiga2018 April 10 2018 18: 44
          +1
          Quote: Silvestr
          but what about patriotism? Around whom will we rally?

          while around the president, unfortunately, no other alternative is visible, we hope that an energetic and resolute anti-Western, Slavophile, who is not afraid to "hold on to the chain" snickering bureaucracy and the bourgeoisie appears ...
        2. Captain Pushkin
          Captain Pushkin April 10 2018 18: 52
          +3
          Quote: Silvestr
          Quote: sapporo1959
          By the way, today, Comrade Siluyanov has already advised dear Russians not to hope for the state and to save for retirement themselves. So, young people go ahead!

          but what about patriotism? Around whom will we rally?

          Are you proposing around whom? To begin with, around Siluanov, around Dvorkovich or around Kudrin?
          Or right around Chubais?
          1. New Year day
            New Year day April 10 2018 19: 11
            +5
            Quote: Captain Pushkin
            Are you proposing around whom?

            around the country's economy. On the drum, but someone has to do the real thing, not play an iPhone. But we don’t give up our
      2. taiga2018
        taiga2018 April 10 2018 18: 39
        0
        Quote: sapporo1959
        So I'm waiting for when they give!

        they’re unlikely to give it back, unless you take it away ...
      3. Bumblebee_3
        Bumblebee_3 April 10 2018 18: 59
        +1
        sapporo1959
        Quote: sapporo1959
        . So the youth come forward!

        Michael, well, with youth it’s clear. And what do you advise me, until retirement another year!
        1. sapporo1959
          sapporo1959 April 10 2018 19: 42
          +1
          Well, if a year, then nothing else! For a year, I think you’ll only have a half-year to increase the release period, so that in a year and a half you will leave safely .. And if there are no military and political merits, then you’ll be counted as 8-9 thousand .. Well, there’s nothing refuse ..
  9. Alex Nevs
    Alex Nevs April 10 2018 18: 33
    +3
    MarxLenin to help ... but not in this life PLANET Earth. Lots of RISES "live in the west"
  10. Seaflame
    Seaflame April 10 2018 19: 09
    +7
    It was not necessary to hold the Olympics and the World Cup. And invest in high-tech industries: shipbuilding, machine tool building, etc. .. Our Sovcomflot, Gazprom, Novatek, etc., hundreds of millions of greenery annually tower Korean shipyards. We cannot build tankers and gas carriers ourselves, what football ...
  11. New Year day
    New Year day April 10 2018 19: 13
    +2
    "The proposed adoption in the United States of a bill banning financial transactions with banks associated with Russian government debt will entail a further collapse of the ruble. There will be a powerful exit for non-residents from ruble bonds, both OFZs and corporate bonds. Since we are talking about $ 50-60 billion , the ruble will simply be rolled to the floor. The Central Bank will again raise the rate for 20% with all the ensuing consequences. That is, it will be 2014 in a difficult version, "said financial analyst Stepan Demura
    1. Awaz
      Awaz April 10 2018 20: 12
      +1
      Stepan, Which, Demura is still a Troll and “anal lytic”. He was already at 15 in the fall already saying that everything, the ruble was rolled away completely and to NG there would be 100 for a dollar and maybe 200. I personally heard it. When he was still commenting on a program at RBC, he was constantly talking nonsense and never gave concrete predictions, all the while bustling.
      In addition, it is a bright crest and worse than that a trader. It is his job to rock the market, create volatility and make money on it.
      In general - this is the most unreliable and commentator, moreover, a completely empty Troll
  12. The Siberian barber
    The Siberian barber April 10 2018 19: 15
    +1
    Here's a freak, grandmother from the farm, to know about oil futures ???))) Why should people camposty brain? Give the simple people to live calmly and predictably !!!
    From the evil one, all this! (((
    Thieves make excuses that other thieves have robbed them ...
  13. tchoni
    tchoni April 10 2018 19: 25
    +3
    4 years ago (as well as 9), the ampereator said: citizens are calm! keep everything in the hallway! (with this, that is, with the promises of stability of the economy altogether and the course of the ruble in particular, a person then generally came to the Kremlin, if anyone does not remember). “Keep money in rubles,” Nabiulina echoed to him ... However ... for the third time, I somehow do not believe in stability ... Oil prices, say !? Look, Qatar yells that he found as much oil in himself as in Russia .... So anything is possible.
    My advice to you, dear fellow citizens, get ready for an average salary of 200 bucks .... (and these are EBN indicators, just a minute)
    1. Horon
      Horon April 11 2018 13: 51
      +1
      200 $ when ebn it was already a big salary! 50-100 $ such a salary was mainly with ebn and the fact that it is not a fact that it will be paid at least six months later.
  14. Vita vko
    Vita vko April 10 2018 19: 28
    +1
    ERR: Russian oligarchs lost $ 16 billion per day due to new sanctions
    Moreover, the Law of Conservation has not been canceled by anyone, if someone is losing, then there will certainly be those who gain. Everyone knows that the Russian oligarchs are a gangster legacy of the 90s and now there is a real opportunity to bring them out like cockroaches. In the place of Putin, they should generally be sent to unfriendly countries as economic saboteurs.
  15. 16112014nk
    16112014nk April 10 2018 19: 30
    +2
    "When I thought I had reached the bottom - there was a knock from below" © Jerzy Lets
    18 years to the bottom + 6 - reach or knock?
    If you look at the collapse of stocks at Mosbirzha, then ....
  16. fa2998
    fa2998 April 10 2018 19: 43
    +1
    Quote: Logall
    I do not think that this "authoritative" expert was worth quoting here ... Moreover, he is fictional!

    And some "experts" put on important posts, certainly proved that the bottom had already passed, and go up. What knocked on the bottom? Have struck the bottom and again looking for the next? request hi
  17. doka
    doka April 10 2018 22: 34
    0
    Introduce a gold ruble, Nationalize the Bank of Russia, trade for rubles and yuan to the dollar, I'm not an economist, but I’ll lower the dollar
  18. Sergey ippon
    Sergey ippon April 10 2018 23: 24
    +3
    to enter?
    and to whom?
    I repeat
    think for yourself — almost all our government has palaces and villas over the hill.
    their offspring study there, they are treated and rest there.
    This is not the Soviet Union.
    they are on the contrary not bad.
  19. sharp-lad
    sharp-lad April 11 2018 00: 25
    0
    The question is not where the ruble’s bottom is, but where is the debt-secured wrapper’s ceiling!
  20. trophy
    trophy April 11 2018 08: 52
    0
    And the profiteers cut theirs and the government earned candy wrappers on social programs, though again at the expense of the very happy "collective farmers" (that is, us). And it would be adequate leadership of the country, and it would be possible to increase the share of the sovereign in the same aluminum and not at very expensive.
  21. kan123
    kan123 April 11 2018 10: 40
    0
    The ruble in the system that is imposed on the world is not a tenant. But all this happened "damned fools - communists" - it was the same everything. Forbidden to trade in grain, forbidden to pay in gold - this is the thirties, twenties. And then all the papers of Russia, the USSR were also leaked - I had to make an isolated economy. Independent. scum, immediately called it "iron curtain" - but the existence of the ruble was impossible, by them. They all extinguished at once - the Soviet economy appeared. And now this same madhouse, we pass again - nothing new. Russian papers, throughout history, only worked on exchanges when they were either to the church or to the World War I when something was needed from Russia. What does the British practically take Siberia from - and then the ruble worked in their system, and then they untied the pound from the ruble, and the February one happened. The ruble fell - the peasants stopped shipping grain, rations at the front fell twice, people began to receive less at factories - strikes began. At the same time, Milyukov was invited to London, he was there with the Lords, well. kissed them, they shared RI there, with these lords worthless. And what do you want? Do they need chtoli? They break the Russian Federation when it is convenient for them. Therefore, you must kill a thousand s, or their accomplices, or a million, then only they will lag behind - they generally understand nothing but war.
  22. Antonio_Mariarti
    Antonio_Mariarti April 11 2018 14: 13
    0
    Mb, it’s profitable for our government or some kind of elite, as the matter is clear that this growth of the ruble is connected only with speculation on the basis of sanction and that’s how the oil prices even went up and at the moment 70b per barrel. The state or other people will simply buy up cheap stocks of the same Derepaska and that's it.
  23. Urantian
    Urantian April 12 2018 10: 51
    +1
    80% of Russians don’t give a damn about exchange rates .., since they buy goods from Russian manufacturers, and let fat cats and any liberals soar as much as they like ...