Military Review

Expert: Afghanistan will be divided into "Islamic Emirate" and "Khorasan State"

11
Expert: Afghanistan will be divided into "Islamic Emirate" and "Khorasan State"The political system of Afghanistan will be confederal, with two segments of autonomous governance: the Pashtun "Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan" under the Taliban and the capital in Kandahar and the "Islamic State of Khorasan" under the control of Tajiks, Hazaras, Uzbeks and Turkmen with the capital in Mazar-i-Sharif. The head of the Center for the Study of Afghanistan (Germany), Aziz Arianfar, stated this at the expert meeting “Regional Security in the Context of Afghan Uncertainty” held in Almaty. An Afghan expert and politician presented his vision of the country's future during the meeting.

According to him, it is absolutely "clear that the international community does not recognize the existence of two state entities in Afghanistan at the same time, but it will be forced to recognize the inevitable de facto division of the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan into two parts under one name." Moreover, given the development of the situation in the context of the national, regional and global aspects of the issue, "we can definitely say that peace in any of its manifestations with the Taliban will not succeed. Thus, according to the scenario written in Washington, the peace process will do nothing and all negotiations are in vain. At the same time, a part of the Taliban, according to the Pakistani scenario, cannot be ruled out to take the side of Kabul to perform a special role and play them as the fifth colony. "

Already in 2014, the main paradigm of rivalry in Afghanistan will take another form: "The US and China are becoming the main geopolitical rivals by this time. Their attraction and tearing Afghanistan into two quasi-states" - the expert concluded.

He focused on the fact that even the very idea of ​​federalism is beneficial to America. With Afghanistan’s federal structure, it can be divided into seven to eight segments so that the current administration of Kabul remains in power. Six or nine provinces will be handed over to the Taliban under this administration, the Kandahar-Gilmand direction will be given to the pro-American local leader, the eastern provinces, and the northern, northwestern and central regions will be surrendered to the power of the indigenous peoples. "

With such leverage, America "will reach the end of the civil war with the least funding, with the assistance of the European Union, Japan, Korea and the Arab countries and will retain control of the country, thereby ensuring security for its air bases in Afghanistan," Aziz Arianfar believes.
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11 comments
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  1. Sergh
    Sergh April 21 2012 07: 21
    +3
    Well, someone doubted that Afghanistan would not be cut like a cabbage, it’s been known for a long time, the question remained, whether it should be chopped smaller or bigger.
  2. sergo0000
    sergo0000 April 21 2012 07: 26
    +1
    This policy is as old as the world!
    Divide and conquer! America's favorite business.
    1. OSTAP BENDER
      OSTAP BENDER April 21 2012 13: 58
      0
      This is a favorite pastime of the Jewish Freemasons!
  3. YARY
    YARY April 21 2012 07: 32
    +1
    No one doubted that the "oilmen" act everywhere, according to the principle of their "mother" of Britain - "Divide and Conquer". recourse
    That's just reconciliation will never be there. fool
  4. Alexander Romanov
    Alexander Romanov April 21 2012 07: 47
    +4
    Whether they can do this far from fact, the Afghan lives by its own laws. The Taliban can’t give a damn about such a statement
  5. Dust
    Dust April 21 2012 07: 48
    0
    Not by washing, so by skating?
    It is unlikely that this will happen — rather, the war will continue inside Afghanistan until a complete victory, that is, until the last Afghan — let them get on each other, there will be no strength and time to carry tension to the neighbors ...
    1. sergskak
      sergskak April 21 2012 11: 47
      0
      Quote: Dust
      there will be no time and energy to carry tension to the neighbors ...

      And now this is exactly what is happening. Let them decide in the West what to do with Afghanistan: the head of the Center for the Study of Afghanistan (Germany) So in the near future the Afghans will not be up to the neighbors. laughing
  6. Tersky
    Tersky April 21 2012 08: 13
    +2
    Well, here it is incomprehensible to make from Afghanistan a sort of mosaic picture with a small feudal lord inside each, in order to distract from the beloved ones all the negativity that the Afghans had regarding the NATO contingent in Afghanistan. And at the same time, a loophole will appear to expose yourself as a peacemaking party, entering this or that feudal showdown.
    1. Yarbay
      Yarbay April 21 2012 09: 12
      +2
      Good afternoon Victor!
      They cannot distract from the negative!
      But the fact that not one possible government in Afghanistan over the past 20-30 years could and cannot properly control the entire territory of the country, I think a fact !!
      1. Tersky
        Tersky April 21 2012 09: 31
        +1
        Quote: Yarbay
        They cannot distract from the negative!

        Good morning Alibek! So it’s clear as God's day, it was not possible for any country in the world who visited with military missions on the territory of Afghanistan. In fact, Afghanistan exists due to wars. If you carefully look at the entire history of military conflicts in Afghanistan, you can easily see this.
        1. Yarbay
          Yarbay April 21 2012 11: 12
          +1
          Dear Victor, I mean the local representatives of the elite!
          The fact that no authority even the Afghans did not control and can not control the entire territory of Afghanistan !!
  7. Ascetic
    Ascetic April 21 2012 09: 13
    +7
    The Taliban will drive the confederation into the confederation, giving them the Pashtun provinces, and they themselves will calmly control the northern drug trafficking. Not one poppy dewdrop should disappear from the Afghan opium fields - this is the main task of strategists from the CIA and the drug mafia controlled by it
    1. Tersky
      Tersky April 21 2012 09: 35
      +3
      Ascetic-Good afternoon, Stanislav! Definitely. Not oil alone and wars in different parts of the world replenish the US budget. Aphorism - "Money does not smell" has a place to be relevant for the American financial system
    2. Yarbay
      Yarbay April 21 2012 11: 14
      +1
      According to my vision, Stanislav always had a confederation in Afghanistan!
  8. vezunchik
    vezunchik April 21 2012 09: 14
    +1
    so what? The struggle for power will continue - Each of the formed states will try to overcome more.
  9. Sapper
    Sapper April 21 2012 13: 28
    0
    Even if Afghanistan is divided into one hundred parts, they didn’t deliver drugs to us.
  10. 101
    101 April 21 2012 13: 30
    +1
    In order to control it is necessary to have leverage of pressure. And how to put pressure on people who have only an automatic machine and a cake of property. It is practically impossible to put pressure and agree only on their conditions. In their poverty, their main strength and independence