Military Review

Turkish attack Afrina: who will win this game

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Turkish attack Afrina: who will win this game



Turkish President Recep Erdogan called on the US military "to remove the YPG stripes" so that they do not become a target for the Turkish military, who, according to him, will solve the problem of Afrin and Manbij once and for all. So, will the Turkish leader decide to go to war? Will we see a direct confrontation between the two NATO countries in Syrian territory?

For several days, the media have reported that the so-called pro-Turkish oppositionists have finished regrouping and are ready to attack the small Kurdish enclave of Afrin in western Syria. The main striking force of the upcoming operation should be the Ankara-formed 20-thousandth army, which, naturally, will be supported by the Turkish Air Force, artillery, special forces, as well as armored formations. Of course, the Kurds will not withstand the concentrated strike of such forces (and de facto today they are almost completely surrounded by pro-Turkish forces). Is their fate already predetermined and no one can save them? Yes, the position of Afrin is risky, but not hopeless.



The idea to destroy the Kurdish military detachments in the north of Syria has been hatched by the Turkish leader for a long time. In August, 2016, he ordered the launch of Operation Euphrates Shield. The plan of the operation assumed complete cleaning of the western bank of the river from Kurdish influence. But then the Americans were able to keep the Turkish army from the rash step, pushing its military to the front. Recep Erdogan did not dare then strike and retreated. The risks were too great for him.

Why? Turkey, like Ukraine, is trying to play in the two-vector. Playing on the contradictions of Russia and the United States, Erdogan is trying to get the maximum possible, and while he succeeds. Based on this, it is unprofitable for him to finally break off relations with either of the parties. A blow to the Kurds made him an unequivocal enemy of the United States and completely surrendered him to the power of Russia. I think it was precisely this consideration that ultimately played its part: the Turkish Supreme Commander did not dare to give the order to storm Manbij.

Also, the position of Moscow is working against Ankara, which, during the heat of the passions, agreed to the request of the Kurds to take control of the buffer zone between them and the Turkish army.



The position of Russia is easy to understand. Today, it does not have enough power and influence to keep the Middle East under its total control. Therefore, she also tries to play on the contradictions of regional players among themselves. And also on their separate contradictions with the former hegemon of the region - the USA. So far she has been doing this, but such a game is possible only as long as there are counterweights against each of the “partners”. It is for this very reason that Russia today is unprofitable the complete destruction of a cut off Kurdistan from all sides. It is much more reasonable to save it, but ... under our own control, not American control. For peacekeeping reasons, naturally.

By the way, for the same reason, today Moscow is unprofitable and the complete destruction of Saudi Arabia, which, along with Israel, is the best counterbalance to its other rapidly growing ally - Iran.

At the same time, today, an ideal situation is emerging for Moscow: it can, using the contradictions between Turkey and the United States, dramatically weaken the positions of both and increase the influence of the legitimate government of Bashar Assad. If the leadership of the Afrinsky enclave really believes in Turkey’s determination to launch an attack, it can go to the only saving solution for them, namely, to raise the flag of Syria over the city and recognize itself as a territory completely under the control of the legitimate government.

Moreover, the example of Afrin can later become an example for Manbij and for the entire territory, which is under the control of the SDF today. Using the Turkish club brought over them, Moscow and Damascus will be able to at least take control of a part of the country’s territory without risk and loss, and, as a maximum, create and then deepen contradictions within the SDF units of different tribes, completely destroy this alliance and thus end the Syrian war. which has obviously entered the next igilov stage (the IG is prohibited in the Russian Federation)), where the former rivals in the fight against the “caliphate” become the main rivals.

Thus, it is early to think that the fate of Afrin is predetermined. While there are several strong opponents who want to get this piece of territory under their control, there remains a fork of solutions. True, all these options for the Kurds - losing. By linking their future with the United States, they became a legitimate victim not only for the Turkish army, but also for Russian diplomacy. Therefore, they have only two options: either die in an unequal struggle with the Turkish "occupiers", or surrender to the mercy of the legitimate government.

And I think that as soon as the Kurds really smell fried, they will turn to Damascus with a request to take them into "citizenship." And the Russian “invaders” will be asked once again to save them from the Turkish thugs, which they will do with pleasure.

PS The most "funny" in this situation is that Moscow in any case remains in the win. If Erdogan attacks, it will finally push him “into the clutches” of Putin, and if not, he will help Russia solve a very important problem for her.
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  1. siberalt
    siberalt 16 January 2018 06: 31
    +2
    Erdogan started a dangerous adventure. His statement of intent may not be true. It makes no sense to fight the Kurds, the people cannot be defeated. To spoil the American coalition, and for what purpose? It is easier in Turkey to de-energize American bases. It seems that there is some kind of multi-way. Wait and see.recourse
    1. Chertt
      Chertt 16 January 2018 07: 06
      +5
      Quote: siberalt
      It makes no sense to fight the Kurds, the people cannot be defeated.

      Erdogan's nightmare is a union of Kurdish enclaves in northern Syria. And if US bases strengthen on this territory (what is already happening), Erdogan will suffer a complete collapse of all his New Ottoman plans.
      1. dSK
        dSK 16 January 2018 08: 57
        0
        Hello Alexey! A battle won is not a victory. Turkey is a member of NATO. Assad has nothing to bombard the US bases, he should have signed a peace treaty with Israel, he will not be able to recapture the Golan Heights, for 60 years the Israelis have built up underground bunkers there unintentionally. hi
        1. andj61
          andj61 16 January 2018 09: 13
          +8
          Quote: dsk
          Hello Alexey! A battle won is not a victory. Turkey is a member of NATO. Assad has nothing to bombard the US bases, he should have signed a peace treaty with Israel, he will not be able to recapture the Golan Heights, for 60 years the Israelis have built up underground bunkers there unintentionally. hi

          He cannot now sign a peace treaty with Israel - he is immediately accused of compromising with the enemy Arab and betraying the interests of Syria and trading in national territory in order to strengthen personal power. And any allies - Iran and Hesbollah will push away. The conclusion of a peace treaty with Israel is a cross on Assad’s political future and, in general, a cross on his future. A similar agreement can be concluded with a strong position and control of the country - Assad has neither one nor the other. hi
          1. dSK
            dSK 16 January 2018 13: 34
            +1
            Hello Andrey!
            Quote: andj61
            The conclusion of a peace treaty with Israel is a cross on Assad’s political future
            Egypt and Jordan did this a long time ago, they did not lose territory. Syria has not recaptured the Golan for 60 years and it has practically no chance of it. If she does this and gives autonomy to the Kurds - will receive a peaceful respite to rebuild the country. She can not squeeze out the IS from under the capital, Damascus. Weapons get a loan. Turkey and the USA - NATO; USA and Israel, children and parents. These three will not lift the blockade. There remains a piece of the coast, covered by Russian bases, neutral Lebanon and bought by the States of Jordan. hi
            1. andj61
              andj61 17 January 2018 14: 16
              0
              Quote: dsk
              Egypt and Jordan did this a long time ago, they did not lose territory. Syria has not recaptured the Golan for 60 years and it has practically no chance of it. If she does this and gives autonomy to the Kurds, she will receive a peaceful respite for the restoration of the country. She can not squeeze out the IS from under the capital, Damascus. Weapons get a loan. Turkey and the USA - NATO; USA and Israel, children and parents. These three will not lift the blockade. There remains a piece of the coast, covered by Russian bases, neutral Lebanon and bought by the States of Jordan.

              You are saying everything correctly, but Assad among Muslims is supported only by radical Shiites. And they have one slogan - Israel must be destroyed!
              Egypt agreed to a peace treaty with Israel, being confident in the support of the United States, as well as military, diplomatic and financial assistance from the United States. Jordan actually fixed the situation: the king refused to support the Palestinians, especially since these Palestinians themselves tried to overthrow the king at one time. And with the king, there was simply nothing to share with the king - if you proclaim Jordan as a Palestinian state (there are reasons for this - the territory of Jordan, as well as the west coast and the Gaza Strip were part of the British Mandate Territory of Palestine), then you can lay claim to Gaza and the west coast, but you enter into confrontation not only with Israel, but with the United States - the king could not do this. Moreover, King Hussein on 26.10.2016 did not sign this agreement; the Prime Minister did it for him. Jordan even received something from the treaty:
              The Jordan River was established as an approved border, and it was agreed that if its channel changed, the Jordanian border would follow a new channel. In addition, Israel transferred 300 square kilometers to Jordan, including the so-called “island of peace”, as well as 2850 dunams (2.85 km ²) in the Arava desert (Muvlaat Tzofar). The border from Ein Gedi to Beit Shean has not been established, as Jordan has stated that the Palestinian Authority must be a partner in establishing that border.

              Pope of the present Assad did not go to the signing of the agreement (Israel repeatedly conducted a probe on this subject until 1981) - he demanded that the Golan be returned in advance, which was unacceptable to Israel. And then Israel recognized the Golan as its territory. And already for him it became unacceptable to agree on the Golan at all. And without the Golan, the chance of supporting a peace treaty with Israel in Syrian society is minimal. hi
        2. karish
          karish 16 January 2018 22: 31
          +1
          Quote: dsk
          Assad has nothing to bomb, he should have signed a peace treaty with Israel

          Israel will not sign a peace treaty with Assad, and no one else will negotiate with him. Even if suddenly Assad really wanted to.
          Assad does not control the country, is not a legitimate leader of the country for the majority of the population - what is the point of talking with someone whose future is not just foggy, but simply hopeless.
          1. gafarovsafar
            gafarovsafar 17 January 2018 13: 31
            +1
            Well, how can one solve such a problem without real life?
      2. NEOZ
        NEOZ 16 January 2018 09: 20
        0
        Erdogan's Nightmare, a union of Kurdish enclaves in northern Syria
        - why? What are the dangers for Turkey? what could be the consequences?
        And if US bases strengthen on this territory (what is already happening), Erdogan will suffer a complete collapse of all his New Ottoman plans.
        - US bases are in Turkey! there is even a Yankee nuclear weapon! how critical are the bases in Turkey and how critical are the bases in Kurdistan for Turkey?
        1. Chertt
          Chertt 16 January 2018 09: 39
          0
          Quote: NEOZ
          - why? What are the dangers for Turkey? what could be the consequences?

          Turkish expansion, both military and political and economic, based on geography. directed south. And if a hostile quasi-state formation is located along the southern border of Turkey, this will nullify any plans of Erdogan
          1. Normal ok
            Normal ok 16 January 2018 13: 43
            +4
            Quote: Chertt
            And if a hostile quasi-state formation is located along the southern border of Turkey, this will nullify any plans of Erdogan

            But it is beneficial to Russia. Allies like Turkey should always be kept under control.
    2. Alber
      Alber 16 January 2018 22: 21
      +1
      Quote: siberalt
      Erdogan started a dangerous adventure. His statement of intent may not be true. It makes no sense to fight the Kurds, the people cannot be defeated. To spoil the American coalition, and for what purpose? It is easier in Turkey to de-energize American bases. It seems that there is some kind of multi-way. :

      But what is the point of preserving or strengthening Saudi Arabia to the detriment of Iran?
      Saudis are still that abomination ...
      1. ando_bor
        ando_bor 16 January 2018 23: 10
        +1
        Quote: Alber
        But what is the point of preserving or strengthening Saudi Arabia to the detriment of Iran?
        Saudis are still that abomination ...

        “Are the Iranians white and fluffy?”
    3. karish
      karish 16 January 2018 22: 33
      0
      Quote: siberalt
      Erdogan started a dangerous adventure.

      US will not support Kurds in Afrin
      According to Anadolu Agency, the US does not support members of the Kurdish PYD group in Syria in the Afrin region and does not consider them as part of operations to combat the Islamic State terrorist organization, a Pentagon spokesman said. “The US does not train or support forces operating outside the Syrian Democratic Forces,” he said.

      Regarding US participation in the anti-terrorist operation in Afrin, he said that Washington will not take part in it and "calls on the parties to abandon steps leading to an escalation of tension." Earlier today, the representative of the International Coalition Against the Islamic State, Colonel Ryan Dillon, said the Pentagon would not impede Turkey’s possible operation in Africa.
  2. zzdimk
    zzdimk 16 January 2018 06: 59
    +3
    And if you look at this situation from a different angle? Is this a pat? A rat, cornered, will fight back very violently.
  3. rotmistr60
    rotmistr60 16 January 2018 07: 04
    +3
    raise the flag of Syria over the city and recognize yourself as a territory completely controlled by the legitimate government
    What is unlikely, because it goes against the policy of the United States. And the Kurds today depend on the Americans not only in supply but also in cover.
  4. vladimirvn
    vladimirvn 16 January 2018 09: 26
    0
    If Putin leaves, who will continue to weave further, in the interests of Russia, this cunning eastern ligature? On this and the calculation?
    1. Normal ok
      Normal ok 16 January 2018 13: 42
      +2
      Quote: vladimirvn
      If Putin leaves, who will continue to weave further, in the interests of Russia, this cunning eastern ligature? On this and the calculation?

      It is not Putin who weaves, Oriental diplomats weave (the old Soviet school), Putin only approves / disapproves of the proposed solution.
  5. Normal ok
    Normal ok 16 January 2018 13: 40
    0
    At the same time, for Moscow today, the situation is just perfect: it can, using the contradictions of Turkey and the USA, sharply weaken the positions of both and strengthen the influence of the legitimate government of Bashar al-Assad.

    After the attack on the Russian base, committed on the territory controlled by the Alavites (read Assad-controlled), the legitimate question arises - do Russia need further strengthening of Assad ?!
    1. Yurasumy
      16 January 2018 14: 37
      +6
      You still say that at the command of Assad))) Well, why stoop to this kind of initiation. Primitively ...
      1. ando_bor
        ando_bor 16 January 2018 23: 13
        +1
        Quote: yurasumy
        You still say that at the command of Assad))) Well, why stoop to this kind of initiation. Primitively ...

        Yes, partners hire a primitive friend.
  6. flicker
    flicker 16 January 2018 16: 29
    +3
    Thanks to the author for quality analytics.
  7. Moscow landing
    Moscow landing 16 January 2018 18: 30
    +1
    Quote: Chertt
    Turkish expansion, both military and political and economic, based on geography. directed south. And if along the southern border of Turkey, a hostile quasi-state entity will be located


    Erdogan and Turkey are not concerned about the mythical expansion to the south, but about the strengthening of the Kurds, who quite naturally dream of their own state.
  8. anosoff
    anosoff 16 January 2018 18: 47
    +2
    Erdogan will not go beyond words. Too dangerous game. You can run into an American economic kick and Western sanctions.
  9. turbris
    turbris 16 January 2018 19: 09
    0
    I think Erdogan will not dare to directly oppose the USA, most likely he is bluffing and no concrete actions will follow these statements.
  10. Hadji Murat
    Hadji Murat 17 January 2018 03: 06
    0
    Breaking news:
    1) In Damascus, East Ghouta, tension is growing, a new front has been opened near Harasta, the SAA has taken several more positions and buildings in the south and southeast of East Ghouta.
    2) In Daria, the capture of a new village by ISIS is reported. SSA are shooting with ISIS and SAA.
    3) In Yarmouk, there was again a skirmish between the SSA and ISIS.
    4) In DEZ ISIS again invaded the liberated SDS Garaing. The fighting in Hajin continues.
    5) A major OVSSA attack is planned in Idlib, even more new and well-equipped armored cars from the UAE are seen.
    6) In Hama, the SAA is planning an attack on ISIS from the south, with the goal of pulling the militants back to defend the village and weakening the protection of the narrow isthmus between the future boiler and Abu Duhur.
    7) There are shootings in Homs.
    8) For the first time such a large-scale arrival of Turkish troops has been outlined in Afghanistan, the probability of an offensive is extremely high, I recall that the loyal Turkish SSA from the city of Aazaz will also take part in it.
    Speaking of Afghanistan, Yemen, Iraq, the Philippines and the wars in Africa, there are losses on both sides, but large-scale changes are not visible.
  11. Altona
    Altona 18 January 2018 16: 36
    +1
    Quote: karish
    Assad does not control the country, is not a legitimate leader of the country for the majority of the population - what is the point of talking with someone whose future is not just foggy, but simply hopeless.

    --------------------------
    Israel as a country is also not a legitimate territorial entity, it supports ISIS terrorists.
  12. Awaz
    Awaz 18 January 2018 18: 02
    +1
    here something is seen in this story that someone stupidly continues to strain the situation. Peace and order in Syria and in the environment is not beneficial only to Israel and the United States. The Turks are simply used, it seems to me, to pressure some unruly Kurds from the United States. Erdogan cannot control everything, but there are many different trends in Turkey, and who knows who and why Erdogan’s ear tells such a continuation of the story ..
  13. Buka001
    Buka001 19 January 2018 08: 48
    +1
    It is strange that the theme of the treachery of the Turks who knocked out a Russian plane on their own territory is constantly being discussed, but about the obvious betrayal of the Kurds everyone turns a blind eye !!! Citizens article writers you really make a choice. Is it not better to openly cover the betrayal of the Kurds and, in general, all other factors harmful to Russia. How to attract facts against friendly Turkey. The union of Russia and Turkey is the strongest deterrent for the Yankees. Take care of this alliance and strengthen it.
    1. Nikolai Grek
      Nikolai Grek 21 January 2018 01: 11
      +1
      Quote: Buka001
      but about the obvious betrayal of the Kurds, everyone turns a blind eye!

      an interesting approach ... how to sit down at a table and agree on a single state, so the Kurds in themselves and do not care at all ... as current matters came to a serious mess, they immediately screamed about the "betrayal" of the Kurds !!! recourse recourse wassat wassat wassat request request request