Military Review

Oh, Pug, know she is strong ..!

37



"We were born to make a fairy tale come true ...". A terrible tale about how the European facade of the USSR turned into the backyard of the European Union, today made the real-life policies of the Baltic border fences, diligently selling Russophobia, but unable to get economic prosperity in return.

At first glance, the picture looks beautiful - a united Europe encounters Russian bears on the Baltic approaches. The 28 united states, supported by the US and NATO forces, are threatened with an "indestructible wall, steel defense ..." threatened by the "indestructible resolve". But only at first glance.

But on the second, third et cetera, it turns out that there is no unity at all. It’s just that the more experienced, old and rich countries of Europe use the young, the poor and the stupid for their own selfish purposes. And those, in turn, have been friends for a long time and tenderly against each other, trying to bite off a piece of the euro from a neighbor.

About one of these examples, which ended with a public scandal and a fine, we described in the material Rail Wars Baltic Then Lithuania dismantled the railways to Latvia in order to exclude the possibility of delivering oil products to the port of Riga.

Oh, Pug, know she is strong ..!


But this is only a small, albeit a very visual page in the incessant guerrilla war of all against all between the Baltic Limits. Suffice it to recall that wanting to get ahead of competitors again and remove all the cream, Vilnius discarded and leased an LNG terminal from Norway, at the same time signing a take-and-pay 10-year contract with Norway, pledging to buy gas from Norway every year. Or pay for it without even buying.

The idea was brilliant - to resell this expensive gas to neighbors as a symbol of unbreakable unity. But Latvia and Estonia preferred to “sell off to Gazprom and continue to buy gas in Russia - gas is too expensive from EU partners. Lithuania was offended because it would not only incur losses for the remaining 8 years under the contract, but now it cannot count on compensation from the funds of the European Union, since the terminal does not fall under the concept of regional.

And to come to an agreement with the Poles, and there can be no talk. Poland is much richer, bigger and more crowded. And the ambitions of this "folk" extend not only to Galicia in Ukraine yet. but also to the Vilna region with the city of Vilna, "by mistake" today being the capital of Lithuania. Yes, and Memel (Klaipeda) Poland does not hurt. And in Lithuania this is well understood.

As for Klaipeda, it is not so much a matter of historical claims, but how much in economic. It is the largest port in the Baltics, handling a record over 40 million tons of cargo last year. Moreover, five years ago the European Commission included Klaipeda port in the list of 319 most important ports in the world. So there is something to fight for.

Today, the port of Klaipeda is the only port in the three republics, which is increasing its turnover at the time, as all the others have been consistently reducing it. The losses of the ports of Latvia and Estonia from reducing the flow of cargo from Russia exceed a billion euros annually, based on the standard rate of 10 euros per ton of cargo. In fact, the losses are even greater, since both the railways and the entire adjacent infrastructure suffer from a reduction in freight traffic.

Specialists of the Baltic Association of Transport and Logistics do not get tired of reminding that they give 8-9 percent of the GDP of these two republics. And the loss of Russian goods means for Latvia alone a reduction in at least 1,1 percent of jobs, a loss of 1,3 billion euros and 2,4 percent of tax revenues. And goods from Russia account for almost three-quarters of the total freight traffic. The complete cessation of transit that is currently being transferred to the new ports of Russia, which is planned for 2020, will force the closure of ports - no one will pay for loss-making enterprises.

Against this background, the prosperous Klaipeda port evokes no friendly feelings. Especially when Latvian oil products go through it from a refinery owned by Latvians, because the Lithuanians paid the fine, and they don’t rush to restore the dismantled road. At the same time, officials in Vilnius do not cease to rub salt on their wounds, maliciously asserting that Russia will not be able to “drain” the port of Klaipeda, like the others.

Confidence is based on the fact that the bulk of the cargo goes to the port from Belarus. The world leader in the production of potash fertilizers, Belaruskali, even bought out the share of Biryu Krovy Terminas CJSC (owner of the dry bulk cargo terminal at the Klaipeda port). Oil products from the refinery of Belarus, and MAZy and BelAZ trucks leaving the ocean go to the port. In a word, everything that is more profitable to transport by sea, and not across the Polish border. The exception in the export of Belarus - gasoline sold in the Baltic States and Ukraine itself, as well as cargo going to Russia.
In fact, "everything is not so simple," as one hero said. In fact, Russia and Belarus made an informed choice in favor of one port - Klaipeda - without which it is impossible to refuse suddenly and immediately. This is also due to the fact that a product pipeline will be stretched through which diesel fuel is pumped to the port. There are a lot of other reasons, including geopolitical ones - the Kaliningrad region will last at least six months (before the World Cup 2018) will depend on the flow of electricity through Lithuania. Three gas and coal-fired thermal power plants will be commissioned by summer, total output will increase by 6 billion kWh / hours, Lithuania will become even less interesting.

As I once explained to students, in contrast to the laws of physics, the laws of political economy act not explicitly, but no less inevitably and firmly. Thrusting your fingers into the outlet, you will immediately strike a current, having taught this not to do. Violating the laws of political economy in favor of political conjuncture, you often condemn the future generation to death.

Today, Russia, taught by sanctions and pathological Russophobia, builds its ports, translates logistics into them, creates a new one and rewrites contracts for a new reality. This is a long and long-term process. But having started it, no one will break what was built of pity for the Lithuanians or tender love for the port of Klaipeda. The Belarusian partners of Russia, working exclusively on oil from Russia, will agree in the contracts to give products to sell products from this raw material exclusively through Russian ports. And that's all.

By 2020, most of the contracts between Belarusians and Lithuanians for transshipment of cargo (usually they are prolonged for a year) expire. Russian railways have already provided 25-percent discount on the transportation of Belarusian goods to Russian ports in the Baltic. Minsk is asking for a 40 percent discount and is likely to receive it next year (or 30-35%). There will be other overt and covert negotiations and agreements between Moscow and Minsk. But it is precisely these capitals that Vilnius will not decide the fate of the cargo terminals of the port of Klaipeda.

Moreover, honestly, we should admit that the Lithuanian authorities so diligently and for so many years watered Lukashenko with mud and so carefully shattered Belarus, that the President of the Republic of Belarus would gladly make a generous return gesture. He is just a good president, and besides his pleasure, he will try to squeeze out maximum discounts and trade preferences from his Russian friends.



And Klaipeda and Vilnius ... Why? They were incorporated into the modern infrastructure of Europe as a transit bridge between Old Europe and Russia. It was in the USSR that the Baltic States were appointed a trade window to Europe. Everything, alles. The world, infrastructure and logistics have changed - now Vilnius and the whole Baltic are not needed from the word at all. And old Europe too. Well, except that the bark of Russia. And since bark is difficult at the same time, the future of this margin of the EU is obvious.
Author:
Photos used:
https://cont.ws/@mikle1
37 comments
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  1. bankirchik34
    bankirchik34 11 January 2018 15: 17
    +9
    “Lithuania was offended as expected” - it always touched when the authors write in such a bass style, about the whole country (with a population of 3 million people) as a living person))
    Zero analysis by volume, flow, interested groups of people, etc. It is immediately obvious that the author was engaged in verbiage, and this was much successful "As I once explained to students, in contrast to the laws of physics, the laws of political economy ..."
    1. dSK
      dSK 11 January 2018 17: 51
      +4
      Quote: bankirchik34
      Lithuania expectedly offended
      on the flowers, the berries have not yet ripened. Selling politicians are ready to turn their countries into a theater of war, but not everyone will have time to "get their feet off" if the mousetrap is slammed and the mice are turned into "cannon fodder."
    2. Nyrobsky
      Nyrobsky 11 January 2018 23: 53
      13
      Quote: bankirchik34
      Zero analysis by volume, flow, interested groups of people, etc. It is immediately obvious that the author was engaged in verbiage, and this was much successful "As I once explained to students, in contrast to the laws of physics, the laws of political economy ..."
      No, it is impossible to say that the author scribbled the above from the ceiling and gave out wishful thinking. Lithuania (like its Baltic neighbors) comes with an economic harbor and a bottomless debt hole from which it cannot get out, for which they will have it in the tail and mane. In the EU, even if it falls apart, it is unlikely that there will be a country that, as the legal successor of the EU, will pay the debts of Lithuania, in the image of Russia who paid the debts of the USSR for all the former Soviet republics. All that Lithuania will have to do is sell off useless assets in the form of ports and railway sign for the complete loss of sovereignty - political, financial and economic. Ports will not be lost, they will be bought by the same Chinese, improving the logistics of their silk road, and the Lithuanians will work for the Chinese and dream of occupation by Russia. In general, the author also wanted to say that the Balts were miscalculated greatly.
      1. dauria
        dauria 12 January 2018 13: 44
        +3
        Lithuanians will work for the Chinese and dream of occupation by Russia.


        No, the fate of the Lithuanians - the personnel of the military base. And the USA will not go anywhere. And they will feed local staff and Gauleiters at a sufficient level. The Baltic states have something to pay off - a strategically advantageous position. 3 million people will be able to feed themselves under such conditions. We have over 15 million Muscovites feeding on domestic service. laughing
        Actually, it’s dashing to rejoice at the failure of our foreign policy. wink
        1. allaykbar
          allaykbar 14 January 2018 19: 53
          +4
          We have over 15 million Muscovites feeding on domestic service.


          you write about 10% of the population. Replace the city of Moscow - 10% of the population of Russia. Immediately throwing words will not be so wanted.

          You have some kind of Selyuk complex. In Moscow, there are more Volgograd residents with Samara than Muscovites.

          And in terms of industrial potential, Moscow is slightly smaller than the entire Krasnodar Territory

  2. 210ox
    210ox 11 January 2018 15: 36
    +6
    Alles? Let's not be in a hurry. The patient is more likely alive than dead. It's like with a ruin .. Everyone is waiting for when .. Yes, never Countries in an even worse situation exist for decades.
    1. Vanin
      Vanin 11 January 2018 20: 11
      +3
      Quote: 210ox
      Countries in even worse situations have been around for decades.

      There are some, but they don’t earn on Russophobia after all ..?
  3. volodya
    volodya 11 January 2018 15: 45
    +4
    Well, a very bad picture is emerging, for mongrels of the West!
  4. Antianglosax
    Antianglosax 11 January 2018 15: 50
    14
    There is no doubt that in 10-20 years, the tribaltia will turn into a decaying garbage dump with completely destroyed infrastructure. And finally, the miserable remnants of these stupid tribal tribes will be where Russia took them from; they will so desire it. Engaged in subsistence farming, as before before entering the USSR. Welcome to the 19th century, evil, stupid, tribales! laughing
    1. Vadim237
      Vadim237 11 January 2018 20: 01
      +3
      Lithuania Latvia and Estonia on the exit of the last population from this territory - we will fence around and make a huge reserve in this territory.
      1. Gato
        Gato 13 January 2018 14: 24
        +1
        This is not a very constructive position - to enclose oneself with garbage dumps and reserves. Better still vassals and controlled territories.
  5. Dr_engie
    Dr_engie 11 January 2018 16: 18
    +5
    Lukashenko is not a good president, but a parasite.
    1. Vanin
      Vanin 11 January 2018 20: 07
      13
      Quote: Dr_Engie
      Lukashenko is not a good president, but a parasite.

      Lukashenko, when everyone and everything was plundered and bankrupt. in the 90s Managed to save industry and agricultural Belarus, unlike all the former ..! That's why he is hated in the West by our oligarchy in Russia! He’s throwing these swindlers with suitcases of money, he immediately expels them from the country and does the right thing! It’s hard for him, of course, but he does well and independently .. Belorussian products are rare in our stores ... But the quality is top class!
    2. AshiSolo
      AshiSolo 11 January 2018 22: 41
      20
      Quote: Dr_Engie
      Lukashenko is not a good president, but a parasite.


      So yes, but on the other hand, the person who is “spinning” in the case involuntarily begins to inspire respect. Although only in some moments. Of course, we are sitting on the neck of the Russian Federation. And not forgetting to tighten the loot from the IMF. But here already - "give - take, beat - run." I wouldn’t spin - in general xs how we lived now ... I personally, nevertheless, prefer such a leader who does it. Some of the neighbors have the idea of ​​persecuting the presidents on a regular basis, while others - the Nazis do heroes, others - in general, pan-wanna everything and everything. Sometimes, with all the plainness of life in Belarus, you begin to feel like a person ...
      The Russian Federation is our elder brother: both quarrels and slap in the open and protection from the byak and money for beer will throw, not giving up to parents. But the neighbors and their owners - only if as a “daddy”: loot only for direct services ...
      1. BecmepH
        BecmepH 12 January 2018 11: 57
        +4
        Quote: AshiSolo
        The Russian Federation is our elder brother: both quarrels and slap in the open and protection from the byak and money for beer will throw, not giving up to parents. But the neighbors and their owners - only if as a “daddy”: loot only for direct services ...
        You can’t say better. Hammer, Brother
        1. Gato
          Gato 13 January 2018 14: 29
          0
          Ff you patsan
    3. Gato
      Gato 13 January 2018 14: 27
      0
      He is a good president for Bulbash. And to whom he is a parasite - not a problem for Belarusians.
  6. cannabis
    cannabis 11 January 2018 16: 23
    +6
    Until the country comes to power, the national group of statesmen will not change anything. If you recall, you have to admit that the Baltic states normally existed until 1939-40. And after the war they were fatly fed. It was essentially a small foreign country in the Soviet Union. But in the wake of national egoism, they wanted freedom. Have you got it right? Had! They got freedom and got the result. How do they say it in the movies? - Enjoy it!
    1. lance
      lance 13 January 2018 02: 18
      +1
      who is the one who dismisses tales of prosperity in the years 39-40? 30% of the population still existed somehow, and the rest.
  7. Sergeant71
    Sergeant71 11 January 2018 18: 46
    +3
    The author somehow “forgot” that through communications and ports of the Baltic states, there is not only Russian-Belarusian transit, but also Central Asian and, for a minute, Chinese. So let the volumes may decrease, but it will not become fatal for them. They, such "hopeless" and tattered, the economy has been developing more stable and dynamic for more than a decade than ours. So only a fat minus to such an “analytics” based on the author’s speculations and assumptions.
    1. Rostislav
      Rostislav 12 January 2018 09: 00
      +8
      Well, yes, the economy is so “efficiently” developing that in Lithuania there is no family left, one or more of whose members have not left to work. I have many friends in Vilnius, information from them. And my friend’s daughter in Cyprus is working now, a waitress.
    2. lance
      lance 13 January 2018 02: 24
      0
      do your relatives live there to say that? I remember the great “Baltic miracle” from the EU in 90-10 when they declared what salaries and opportunities they had. Now we are happy for any help and are going to drape from there, though in Kaliningrad or in the EU
    3. Gato
      Gato 13 January 2018 14: 33
      0
      Stability and dynamism is a relative concept. The agility of an elephant for a mosquito means "upsten" in the spot.
  8. borys
    borys 11 January 2018 19: 16
    +9
    There is a slight objection to Sergeant71. Central Asian and Chinese cargo before getting into
    Lithuania must first go through the territory of Russia. And if over time Russia does not want to miss
    cargo for Klaipeda through its territory? Or conditions will be created that these goods will be
    It’s more profitable to ship to Russian ports.
    1. 82т11
      82т11 11 January 2018 21: 16
      11
      No if, why should we upgrade our ports in vain?)
      I give a 100% guarantee that the owners of these ports (Russian) will do everything legal and illegal so that the goods go through them, and not some Baltic port.
      So the author is right.
  9. Galaktionych
    Galaktionych 11 January 2018 21: 22
    +1
    Quote: 210ox
    Alles? Let's not be in a hurry. The patient is more likely alive than dead. It's like with a ruin .. Everyone is waiting for when .. Yes, never Countries in an even worse situation exist for decades.

    Well, in general, yes, there are a lot of countries with worse situations than in the Baltic states. Here we are, for example, we live in such a country ...
    1. lance
      lance 13 January 2018 02: 28
      +1
      you just haven’t been to the Baltic states for a long time, take a trip, you will understand everything yourself.
      1. Angler
        Angler 13 January 2018 19: 55
        0
        It was. I support. The center of Riga can somehow be compared with St. Petersburg, but not for the better. And everything else ... All sorts of guides lure on excursions, except that they don’t cling to the sleeve. Prices in stores and cafes were ahead of ours. The exception is the market, it is cheaper there. Homeless people are also missing, including black ones. Drunken British are drawn out, at night urinate on the monument of freedom. Normally live. And at the entrance to the city - some ruins, desolation, dumps. Extinctions, in short.
  10. Terenin
    Terenin 11 January 2018 21: 28
    10
    One gets the impression that we at the forum are more concerned about the socio-economic condition of the Baltic republics than themselves. The Baltic states are obviously satisfied with the role of the offended assigned to them, but how about they seem to be loudly yapping about Russian aggression, and they are paying less for barking. Soon they will be asked to go for open provocations with Russia for the money, but there you can get a shot in the face. crying Yes, damn it, task what
  11. Dimy4
    Dimy4 11 January 2018 21: 53
    +4
    They act like little children, naively believing that NATO will protect them from the Russian threat when Russia attacks them. They were prepared as cannon fodder in case of a serious military conflict between us and NATO. Neither the Germans, nor the French, and even less the Americans see themselves in this role.
  12. Freeman
    Freeman 12 January 2018 02: 38
    +5
    Quote: Sergeant71
    The author somehow “forgot” that through communications and ports of the Baltic states, there is not only Russian-Belarusian transit, but also Central Asian and, for a minute, Chinese.

    Here is a Chinese friend is interested

    I would not be surprised that the Chinese, in order to obtain the most favorable economic conditions, under this pretext, “trobalts” “turned inside out”.
  13. rotmistr60
    rotmistr60 12 January 2018 07: 57
    +5
    Everything is natural. For so many years, stubbornly heated by Europe, they did everything possible to pinch (they are not capable of more) Russia, to squander and ditch everything that was built and worked perfectly under the "occupation" regime. And the end of all this Baltic mess will be even sadder.
  14. Terenin
    Terenin 12 January 2018 11: 43
    +7
    Quote: Dimy4
    ... They prepared it as cannon fodder in case of a serious military conflict between us and NATO. Neither the Germans, nor the French, and even less the Americans see themselves in this role.

    I agree, because only the inside of the lid is visible from the coffin, and the smell of flowers love
  15. bratchanin3
    bratchanin3 12 January 2018 16: 27
    +1
    Hard, but fair!
  16. Dmitry_24rus
    Dmitry_24rus 15 January 2018 20: 28
    0
    Again, the article is shitty in a neighboring state ... Damn. And we fucking good. And the crowd cheers: patriots! Cheers hurt.
    1. Dmitry_24rus
      Dmitry_24rus 15 January 2018 20: 32
      0
      Does anyone on a budget work here? In the mountains. The hospital salary for the last two years fell by 2 times. FSB, Putin, check, this is true.
  17. akm8226
    akm8226 15 January 2018 23: 44
    0
    The gentlemen of the tribalt have made their bid. To the USA. And miscalculated. Now it is only their problem. Nobody will feed them anymore. Regarding the debate about where it is better - gentlemen, it is ridiculous to look at you! One screams that the salaries are large, the other - that they are small - and both are unproven !! Words and emotions alone. The question is - is it possible to prove anything to anyone in one word?
    It's the same ... impossible. But if someone brings a screen of the settlement sheet for s \ n with a date from which the increase or decrease in s \ n will be clearly visible - this will be the argument.
    And then as children ... I have a pipiska more ... no, I have more.