Military Review

Donbass: a fragile peace or a big war?

27
The situation in the Donbas, which has already become aggravated lately, is becoming more and more alarming. In addition to the intensified shelling and belligerent statements of Ukrainian politicians, another blow to the Minsk-2 is the forced withdrawal of Russian observers from the Joint Center for Control and Coordination of the Ceasefire (JCCC).


Donbass: a fragile peace or a big war?


The need for such a decision in Moscow is due to the actions of, first of all, the Ukrainian side. The Information and Press Department of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation issued a statement in which official Kiev is accused of deliberately creating for Russian military observers "tense moral and psychological environment"And"barriers to the performance of their duties».

So, Russian participants in the JCCC were repeatedly denied access to the line of contact, and even communication with the local population. In addition, according to the Russian Foreign Ministry, the Ukrainian military often disrespected the Russians..

The last straw was that Ukraine intends to introduce new rules for the entry of citizens of the Russian Federation from the beginning of next year. According to these rules, every Russian entering is obliged to disclose in advance their detailed personal data (including information about relatives). It is clear that in the case of military personnel this impossible.

The Russian Foreign Ministry said that “foreign partners” had already been informed about this decision, after which “responsibility for possible consequences falls entirely on the Ukrainian side».

A joint center of control and coordination was once established at the initiative of Ukraine itself. It was not provided for directly by the Minsk agreements. But until then, until the time, the JCC allowed the Russian and Ukrainian military to negotiate for some separate episodes. For example, if the Ukrainian punishers were bombarding an important infrastructure object that caused civilians to suffer, then the Russian military could stop this crime by means of negotiations. In addition, the JCCC cooperated closely with the OSCE Special Monitoring Mission.

On the Ukrainian side, the “hawks” did not actively like this. Therefore, there have been cases of overt disrespect for the Russian participants in the JCCC. Attempts by Russia to save the Center and agree that the new order of entry does not concern the members of this mission are not crowned with success.

Official Kiev, despite the fact that he himself is to blame for the situation, condemns the decision of Russia and calls it "another provocation", Which"significantly undermines the Minsk agreement". Although - who would talk about the arrangements? In this case, they are poked by the side that constantly tramples them.

The current situation, the Maidan regime of Ukraine intends to use in order to once again turn to the West and ask "increase pressure on the Kremlin". In addition, Kiev announced the termination of the activities of its observers in the territory of the DPR and the LPR.

All this can not but cause concern. The Minsk truce, though very fragile, nevertheless, for several years restrained Ukrainian punishers from trying to arrange a great deal of bloodshed. However, it tied the hands of not only Neo-Nazis-Banderovites, but also defenders of the DNR and the LC, who are unable to respond to the shelling. At the same time, Ukrainian fighters repeatedly captured the villages declared demilitarized zone.

In view of all this, the Minsk agreements caused rejection from all sides. Yes, this mechanism still saved many lives. But the constant, almost daily death of one, then two, then three people ... Of course, this gives rise to anger and quite fair questions from the people of the People's Republics (and everyone who sympathizes with them). It may not be the daily death of dozens of people, but still blood and tears flow a lot.

Moreover, people live under the constant threat that the punitive "to go off the chain." The deputy head of the operational command of the DPR, Eduard Basurin, at a recent briefing, said that Kiev is still preparing for war, dragging heavy weapons to the line of contact and increasingly using drones. He called to exert international pressure on the "Poroshenko regime" to prevent major bloodshed.

Another touch to all this - tightening the process of exchanging prisoners by the Ukrainian side. It seemed that it was already practically resolved the issue. But, as the DPR Morozova, the Ombudsman of the DPR, stated, the Kiev side rejected a proposal to exchange prisoners of December 27 (as proposed by the Republic). Although there is still hope that, nevertheless, until the end of the year, prisoners will receive freedom.

Despite the fact that Russia is withdrawing its employees from the JCCC, and Ukraine announced the departure of its observers from the DPR and the LPR, the Donetsk People's Republic still hopes to save this structure. Representatives of the DNI will continue to work in the Center. In addition, the People’s Council of the Republic decided to create special groups to monitor the situation in the shelling zone. According to the Deputy Chairman of the National Assembly of the DPR, Olga Makeeva, this work will be carried out in two formats. First, specific deputies will be assigned to the frontline areas, and secondly, mobile groups will be created that will go to the field in the event of shelling.
All this, of course, will not replace the previous work carried out by the JSCC, but will allow to continue monitoring the situation.

And the killing of civilians continues ... December 18 Ukrainian punitive again opened fire on the cities of Donetsk and Lugansk People's Republics: Gorlovka Pervomaisk and Stakhanov. At the same time in the city of Stakhanov, a 93-year-old pensioner died of a heart attack caused by shelling. One of the residents of the village Golmovsky (near Gorlovka) was wounded.

As for the Russian servicemen, who were supposed to cross the contact line and be in Soledar (controlled by Kiev), according to the plan, the Ukrainian side did not give them appropriate security guarantees. Because at the moment they remain in place.

The withdrawal of the Russians from the CCKK by itself, of course, does not mean that “Minsk” is completely dead. Moreover, this structure was not originally provided for by the Minsk agreements - it was already formed during the execution of the agreements, and not by diplomats, but by the military. But if you take into account the actions of the Ukrainian side, which is increasing the number of shelling, and also recall the recent statements by the United States and Canada about the supply of lethal weapons to Kiev - all this creates a rather gloomy picture of the near future.

But there is still a chance to prevent a big war. To do this, it is necessary to put pressure on the Kiev regime. And then there are two questions. First, how will Western "partners" behave? Practice shows that there is little hope for their prudence. The second and main question remains: What support will be given to the People's Republics? We can not allow the massacre, which so want some "too hot" heads in Kiev ...
Author:
27 comments
Information
Dear reader, to leave comments on the publication, you must to register.

I have an account? Sign in

  1. 210ox
    210ox 19 December 2017 06: 01
    +8
    I did not like the article .. Another nonsense about "there is no alternative to Minsk" ... Yes, and why save something that no one needs.
    1. Andrey Yuryevich
      Andrey Yuryevich 19 December 2017 06: 11
      +7
      Quote: 210ox
      The article did not like

      everything about Ukraine is tired.
      Quote: 210ox
      Another nonsense about "there is no alternative to Minsk"

      insulting Elena is not worthy of a man, she is more “in the subject” as a person dealing with this problem, if you are capable of more high-quality material, “eat” ... let's see what kind of “nonsense” you have. hi
      1. 210ox
        210ox 19 December 2017 06: 49
        +2
        Well, I will take advantage of your proposal .. I thought about it long ago .. And about insulting a woman .. God forbid .. It’s just that all this canoe (oh sure! The chess game has dragged on ..) got everyone. But you have to cut this Gordian knot.
        Quote: Andrew Y.
        Quote: 210ox
        The article did not like

        everything about Ukraine is tired.
        Quote: 210ox
        Another nonsense about "there is no alternative to Minsk"

        insulting Elena is not worthy of a man, she is more “in the subject” as a person dealing with this problem, if you are capable of more high-quality material, “eat” ... let's see what kind of “nonsense” you have. hi
        1. Andrey Yuryevich
          Andrey Yuryevich 19 December 2017 06: 51
          +2
          Quote: 210ox
          Well, I will take advantage of your offer ..

          we wait... yes
          Quote: 210ox
          . It’s just really all this canoe (oh sure! The chess game dragged on ..) all got

          even as I got it ... Satanovsky said well: stop cutting the tail of the cat with rings like sausage ... do something already!
        2. Separ DNR
          Separ DNR 19 December 2017 12: 42
          +3
          Quote: 210ox
          all this canoe (oh sure! The chess game dragged on ..) got everyone. But you have to cut this Gordian knot.

          Yes, as they say, you can’t put it off in the "long box" ...
          But the Kremlin political technologists in the light of the election campaign will still try to do this. Painfully "sensitive", and fraught with undesirable effects, the theme in such a period ...
      2. To be or not to be
        To be or not to be 19 December 2017 09: 56
        +1
        The question is not in Ukraine.
        The question is who and why uses Ukraine. Solving their strategic tasks, not thinking about the fate of the peoples of this country. She was at the junction of two civilizations .. and at the same time being partly one and the other.
        1. Separ DNR
          Separ DNR 19 December 2017 12: 46
          +6
          Quote: To be or not to be
          The question is not in Ukraine.
          The question is who and why uses Ukraine. Solving their strategic tasks, not thinking about the fate of the peoples of this country. She was at the junction of two civilizations .. and at the same time being partly one and the other.

          yes by 99,999% by Russia, and by the remaining "thousandths" from other peoples living in it ...
      3. Separ DNR
        Separ DNR 19 December 2017 11: 41
        +5
        Quote: Andrey Yurievich
        insulting Elena, not worthy of a man, she is more "in the subject" as a person dealing with this problem

        Being a little familiar with what Elena writes, I note that from what is called social articles, she moved on to asking the question:
        What support will be provided to the People's Republics? You can’t allow the bloody reprisal, which some “too hot” heads so want in Kiev ...

        The transformation of the vision of the situation, under the pressure of what is happening in the DPR, as they say, on the face ...
        A woman, not a military expert (!!!), sees that the alignment of forces by 2018, to put it mildly, "not very" ...
        And on my own behalf, I’ll add that for such a situation, I VERY VERY grateful to the various officials from the RF Ministry of Defense who “successfully transformed” (up to most “advisers”) the combat-ready militia into a “people's militia” on rusty huts ...
        And the brake, in the form of "Minsk", which we hitched in 2014m-15m ...
    2. siberalt
      siberalt 19 December 2017 07: 47
      +3
      So, we need to introduce rules: Ukrainians should not be allowed to work in Russia unless they present a scalp of Bandera lol
      1. novel66
        novel66 19 December 2017 09: 38
        +3
        be careful with ideas - because the outskirts are depopulated lol
      2. Separ DNR
        Separ DNR 19 December 2017 11: 51
        +4
        Quote: siberalt
        So, we need to introduce rules: Ukrainians should not be allowed to work in Russia unless they present a scalp of Bandera

        Do you think that the scalp of Bandera is any special, different, for example, from mine or yours?
      3. Akuzenka
        Akuzenka 19 December 2017 11: 52
        +2
        Better to go further, it is necessary to demand the scalp of their owners. Then there will be world peace.
    3. elenagromova
      19 December 2017 11: 41
      +3
      Not "Minsk" need to be saved. And Donbass ...
  2. aszzz888
    aszzz888 19 December 2017 06: 42
    +1
    ... and they did the right thing to leave Banderstan, it was not appropriate for our military to humiliate themselves before the Nazis ... angry
  3. samarin1969
    samarin1969 19 December 2017 07: 00
    +4
    "For this, it is necessary to put pressure on the Kiev regime" ... alas. Last year, everything was rather the opposite .... concessions, "consolations", unfulfilled hopes, the growth of shelling. .... So far, if you believe yesterday’s news from the LPR, the "pressure" is only on the militias and the population of the republics.
  4. Mountain shooter
    Mountain shooter 19 December 2017 07: 01
    +3
    They take their own out when the threat of real battles arises. APU will now climb to the Donbass. Well, Poroshenko is obliged to give such an order. All of his domestic political layout requires ...
    1. beeper
      beeper 19 December 2017 15: 02
      +1
      Still, there was a man who grasped the essence of the "process" - Mountain shooter hi
      Sincerely.
  5. NVD
    NVD 19 December 2017 07: 54
    0
    Porosenko is afraid to climb into the Donbass, because he can scribble like a tie eater, but he will betray him, or this tie eater will take his throne, and he will not be a lot, and then the curators of the cannons throw up, so that war will soon be over.
    1. Normal ok
      Normal ok 21 December 2017 21: 38
      0
      Quote: NVD
      but he surrenders to him, or else this tie eater will occupy his throne,

      Saakashvili was blown away. Poroshenko doesn’t put him in anything.
  6. Aristarkh Lyudvigovich
    Aristarkh Lyudvigovich 19 December 2017 08: 05
    +1
    And the killings of civilians continue ... On December 18, Ukrainian punishers again opened fire on the cities of Donetsk and Lugansk People's Republics: Gorlovka Pervomaisk and Stakhanov. At the same time, in the city of Stakhanov, an 93-year-old pensioner died of a heart attack caused by shelling.

    In 93, you can die for natural reasons. Dear Elena, it is better not to indicate the age of the victims in such cases, if not other examples.
    1. elenagromova
      19 December 2017 11: 48
      +2
      However, what happened happened - she died not sometime, but during the shelling.
  7. cannabis
    cannabis 19 December 2017 09: 09
    +2
    "Late. Late .... And it's too late to love you .... You're leaving like a train ... train ..." This is a song from the movie Love. In this case, with the former territory of the Russian Empire with the modern name Ukraine, it is too late. In 90, ordinary people already had everything clear and understandable, but the Moscow gas industry wanted to become millionaires. And now it's late .....
  8. Romey
    Romey 19 December 2017 09: 57
    +5
    However, there is still a chance to prevent a major war. To do this, put pressure on the Kiev regime. And here two questions arise. First, how will the Western “partners” behave? Practice shows that there is little hope for their prudence. The second and main question remains: what kind of support will be provided to the People's Republics? You can’t allow a bloody reprisal, which some “too hot” heads so want in Kiev ...

    Immediately questions. First, how to put pressure on the Kiev regime, if Moscow has no leverage on Kiev at all, but the owners of Kiev have a huge toolbox of pressure on Moscow? Secondly, how to prevent bloody reprisal? Let’s say that the APU went offensive and crushed the “corps” with ease. What to do? "North wind"? Well, just keep in mind that on the other side the frayers are already broken, and probably the 2014 boilers will not work. We'll have to put a bunch of people again, only now for the sake of Minsk 3. Mlyn, I don’t know, but in order to drive yourself into such a dead end, you really need to be a genius of geopolitics of all time, according to officialdom and enthusiastic fans.
    1. elenagromova
      19 December 2017 11: 51
      +2
      Bitter, bitter truth ...
      Hope for something irrational ...
      That allowed to win earlier, when the situation seemed hopeless.
      But the Republic cannot take it like this ...
  9. AleBors
    AleBors 19 December 2017 10: 32
    +2
    I believe that there will be a war. The junta was originally tasked with drawing Russia into the war. Will retract.
  10. thinker
    thinker 19 December 2017 11: 33
    +1
    Because at the moment they remain in place.

    "In the LPR decided to create a representative office at the CCSK"
    On Tuesday, officers of the RF Armed Forces, members of the joint center, crossed the contact line in the Donbass and left the territory of the DPR. Together with them, officers of the Armed Forces of Ukraine left for the territory controlled by Kiev.

    RIA News https://ria.ru/world/20171219/1511232514.html
    1. elenagromova
      19 December 2017 11: 48
      +1
      Well ... the situation is changing ... there was a weak hope at night that the withdrawal did not take place as a result ...