Military Review

Five points of the Third World War. Where can "shoot" a new global conflict?

20
Uppsala University is the oldest university not only in Sweden, but in all of Scandinavia, founded back in 1477. Carl Linnaeus, Anders Celsius, Juhann Valerius - they all either studied or worked at Uppsala University. Today, this university has a strong school of humanitarian studies, including political science and conflict studies. Recently, conflictologists at Uppsala University presented a forecast of possible epicenters of the outbreak of a third world war. It turns out that at the present time there are five major foci of contradictions of great powers in the world that can turn into the epicenters of a third world war.


The modern world is changing rapidly. It is not only about a large-scale technological revolution, the analogue of which was not known to mankind. On a global scale, new "centers of power" are gaining political and economic weight. Thus, over the past decade, the economic power of many Asian states has seriously increased. There is nothing unnatural in this - their economies are developing rapidly and dynamically, and the high population size implies the absence of a shortage of labor of the most diverse quality.

The current situation reminds us of the period between the First and Second World Wars. Then, after the defeat of Germany and Austria-Hungary, weakened by the First World War, Great Britain and France gradually lost their former power. They have a new strong competitor - the United States of America, which especially strengthened its influence after the Second World War, becoming the strongest power of the bipolar world.

Then, in the first half of the twentieth century, the West managed to completely stop Japan’s attempts to become a full-fledged great power and spread its influence over the entire Asia-Pacific region. Then, the entire second half of the twentieth century, the world lived in the confrontation of two ideological and political systems. The Soviet Union eventually collapsed, the communist ideology suffered a fiasco in all the countries of Eastern Europe and in most of the countries of Asia and Africa that were previously oriented toward the Soviet bloc.



In 1990-ies, the United States felt like the only full-fledged "master of the world", "world gendarme". The European Union is often called the second “center of power” after the United States, but the “old Europe” weakens and loses its position. But China is booming. The United States will not soon be able to be a worthy opponent for China either - and this is not only the difference in population size (there are several times more people in China than in the USA), but also in the specifics of the economy. In addition, India is gaining strength - a country with a billion-dollar population and also a growing economy, which rightly claims a more significant role in world politics.

The modern world can no longer live by the rules that were formed after the Second World War. Why does the same India with a billion people and a dynamic economy not belong to the "world powers", and France or Germany are small compared to it? Naturally, such a model of organization of relations is already outdated, moreover, it is unfair and causes understandable irritation.

Now there are three main "centers of power" in the world. The first is the United States of America, which, despite serious internal problems, maintains world leadership in politics and economics. The United States provides more than 24% of world GDP, and the dollar remains the main global currency, whose competitors are still unable to even come close to its influence. The United States has a strong army, and most importantly, unlimited financial resources that allow it to dictate its position to most countries of the world. Where the US is not sure of its position, they actively use the “fifth columns”, organize coups, uprisings, revolutions and civil wars (Yugoslavia, Iraq, Libya, Syria, Ukraine, etc.).

The United States is trying to neutralize or weaken its real and potential rivals and opponents with the help of various technologies, while at the same time surrounding itself with numerous satellites. For example, in modern Europe, a number of states, being members of the European Union, can rather be considered among the “junior partners” of the United States. Among them - Poland, Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, outside the EU - Ukraine. By actively using the ideology of "democracy", the United States is ready to cooperate with all who benefit, regardless of the true nature of these regimes. We see how Gaddafi or Milosevic viewed the United States as dictators, while in every way supporting feudal monarchs of the countries of the Persian Gulf, who retain archaic medieval regimes with a clear violation of human rights.

The European Union is considered by many as the second “center of power”, but in fact the positions of this supranational association are very shaky. Although the euro is more expensive than the dollar, it has less circulation and influence. There are numerous contradictions between the countries of Europe, including on issues of migration policy, economic development of Europe, relations with Russia and the United States. However, EU countries continue to provide 25% of global GDP - even more than the United States. But if Europe has a good economic position, the “power bloc” is inferior to both the American and the Russian.

China is the most real competitor of the USA in the modern world. In global GDP, the share of China is 14,9%. This is a lot, especially considering that the Chinese economy is developing at a rapid pace and has all the chances to outrun the American one in the very near future. Chinese leaders themselves are talking about their leadership ambitions, not hesitating at all. The leadership of the Chinese Communist Party hopes to turn China into a world leader. In order to win a standoff with the United States, China seeks to extend its influence to as many countries as possible.

Five points of the Third World War. Where can "shoot" a new global conflict?


In particular, China is very actively taking root in the economies of many African countries, ranging from traditional allies like Zimbabwe and ending with Ghana. For example, China is ready to allocate $ 10 billion for the development of the bauxite deposits in Ghana. China intends to invest another $ 40 billion in the Nigerian economy, despite the fact that Beijing had already invested 22 billion dollars in Nigerian projects. Ghana and Nigeria are just a few examples of China’s cooperation with African countries, which tends to grow rapidly. In addition to the African continent, where China competes with the United States, the Celestial Empire seeks to expand its influence on the European Union. At some point, cooperation with China may be just necessary for Europe, especially against the backdrop of competition with the United States. China has a special relationship with Russia. Moscow today has no choice but to focus on the further development of Russian-Chinese relations. Although everyone understands that the resources of the Russian Far East and Siberia, not only raw materials, but also territorial ones, are of great interest to China, which needs somewhere to expand its political and economic space.

It is the growth of China’s political and economic influence that can be the main cause of the third world war. The United States really does not want to lose the world out of its own hands, as in its time the UK was not going to share its influence with Germany. It is not by chance that all five points of potential danger that Swedish conflictologists are talking about are located in close proximity to the Chinese border and, in one way or another, affect the interests of China. Consider these points in more detail.

1. Korean Peninsula.

History the confrontation between the DPRK and the Republic of Korea is rooted in the end of the 1940s — the beginning of the 1950s — in the bipolar world. But communism has long been no threat to the United States. Therefore, it is obvious that now the “Korean question” is being pumped up by Washington not from ideological, but from practical goals - to weaken China, and at the same time to weaken such economic competitors as the Republic of Korea and Japan (they will have to be hit by the DPRK in the event of a war). China will not be able to stay away from the conflict unfolding right on its border. For the ideological justification, the United States will again exploit the myth of fighting the brutal dictator Kim Jong-un, and in the case of cannon fodder, they can use the armed forces of numerous allies, such as the Republic of Korea and Japan.



2. South China Sea.

As you know, in recent years (and this has become especially noticeable with the leadership of Xi Jinping), China is increasingly seeking to establish complete hegemony in the South China Sea, emphasizing its exclusive historical rights. Expanding influence on the South China Sea is a strategic goal of China, which perfectly fits Beijing’s plans for further advancement to the East - to the American possessions in the Pacific Ocean and to the West - to the east coast of Africa. China claims control in the zone where 40% of world sea freight flows. Naturally, this circumstance cannot but disturb the nearest neighbors of China. Japan, the Republic of Korea, Taiwan, Vietnam - these are the states that are most likely to suffer from the hegemonic plans of the PRC. Interestingly, Vietnam is even ready to enlist the support of the United States, who brought so much evil to the Vietnamese people, just to avoid hindering the development of its economy.

3. Spratly Archipelago.

The Spratly Archipelago and the Paracel Islands in Southeast Asia are another “headache” of the modern world. China also claims to these islands, considering them its territory. The tiny Spratly archipelago is of great strategic importance, which explains the territorial claims of six states at once - Vietnam, China, Taiwan, Malaysia, the Philippines and Brunei. On the 45 islands there are small military contingents of Vietnam, China, Taiwan, Malaysia and the Philippines, while Brunei, obviously realizing the futility of their claims, is limited to fishing on the southern reef. In 1988, the ships of the Navy of China and Vietnam had already fought off the Spratly Islands, but then the conflict was “extinguished”. Now it will flare up again - and not without interest on the part of Washington, which hopes to weaken China and other Asian states.



4. Indo-Chinese border.

Relations between China and India have always been tense. The presence of a direct border between the two powers only complicates the situation. India has traditionally stood up for Tibetan Buddhists, sought to keep China out of Nepal and Bhutan, and the PRC supported the traditional sworn enemy of India, Pakistan. Not without the participation of Beijing, the Maoist armed rebel groups have operated for decades in a number of Indian states, primarily in the north and north-east of India. China, of course, controls the Nepalese Maoists as well. India has its own claims to China, and most importantly - the desire to also seriously change its position in world politics. This circumstance will be used by the United States, which already demonstrate full support for Delhi. India is ideally suited for a collision with China - it has practically comparable human resources, but for the time being, India cannot make up the competition for the USA economically. The conflict may begin because of Siliguri - "Chicken neck", a narrow layer of land at the junction of the borders of India, China and Bhutan. In June, the 2017 of China began to build a road to the Doklam Plateau through the disputed territory claimed by both China and Bhutan. Naturally, Bhutan appealed to India for protection.



5. The border of India and Pakistan.

Pakistan is a country with a huge population and a strong army, but with a weak economy. Since the end of 1940's. Pakistan is in a situation of permanent conflict with India, which has already turned into Indo-Pakistani wars several times. At the same time, Pakistan remained an important and reliable ally of the United States in South Asia for a long time. However, Sino-Pakistani ties are also traditionally developed. The provocation of the conflict between India and Pakistan can also be beneficial to the United States in order to weaken neighboring China. China will not be able to ignore the war between the two largest neighboring countries, especially since beyond the Indo-Pakistan border the United States will try to kindle a fire in the unstable Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region of China, where a large Muslim population ethnically and culturally associated not with China, but with Central Asian region.
Author:
Photos used:
https://sputnik-georgia.ru, http://ekd.me, http://tourweek.ru, http://www.artbios.ru
20 comments
Information
Dear reader, to leave comments on the publication, you must to register.

I have an account? Sign in

  1. solzh
    solzh 7 December 2017 15: 07
    +5
    But the Russian-American conflict, type can not be? And the same hot spot in the Donbass is not the same?
    1. Antianglosax
      Antianglosax 7 December 2017 15: 21
      14
      Quote: solzh
      But the Russian-American conflict, type can not be? And the same hot spot in the Donbass is not the same?

      Duc us for people do not consider what the West openly declares on all corners. Our bosses also agree with this approach.
      1. Sergey-svs
        Sergey-svs 7 December 2017 15: 31
        14
        Quote: Antianglosaks
        Duc us for people do not consider what the West openly declares at all angles ...

        Why are they treating us so badly ?! request Indeed, almost every Russian in his soul dreams of going to America ... yes Sadness ... crying
        laughing laughing laughing
        PS - Dad, how much fly to America? - Twenty minutes, son. Mom from the kitchen: - He asks you about the plane, and not about your “Poplars”! lol
    2. dSK
      dSK 7 December 2017 15: 27
      +4
      Quote: solzh
      Russian-American conflict

      Hello Sergey! There will be no direct conflict because of the US habit of "raking in the heat of others." hi
      1. dSK
        dSK 7 December 2017 15: 37
        +3
        After Vietnam, the States took into account its "lessons" and only in Iraq did they introduce a small amount of ground forces. Mostly aviation, cruise missiles, instructors, PMCs, mercenaries of all stripes.
    3. Normal ok
      Normal ok 7 December 2017 18: 28
      +8
      Quote: solzh
      But the Russian-American conflict, type can not be? And the same hot spot in the Donbass is not the same?

      It's just that these are unimportant events in the world. China, India and the United States are now setting the international agenda. Russia is gradually losing its significance. But, of course, if you believe the 1 Channel, the opposite is true. lol
    4. Silver fox_2
      Silver fox_2 8 December 2017 09: 57
      0
      Quote: solzh
      But the Russian-American conflict, type can not be? And the same hot spot in the Donbass is not the same?

      Americans will not even consider such a conflict! second Vietnam they do not need
    5. horhe48
      horhe48 8 December 2017 12: 51
      +1
      In fact, Russia needs about 20 years of peace. Then, when the economy is reoriented from mainly raw materials to mainly industrial and innovative, we will be a self-sufficient world power not only militarily, but also economically. And if conflicts pass us by, then this is only a plus. states deal with China, China with India, etc. which of them is the main one, and we would develop the economy. Russia's main interest is not outside, but inside the country.
  2. zzdimk
    zzdimk 7 December 2017 15: 45
    +2
    And why doesn’t anyone consider Yöp-Burg as the starting point for the collapse of Russia with the ensuing civil war, an approach against everyone? And Yob-purg already banned to call the Russian language native ...
    1. The comment was deleted.
  3. BRDM2M
    BRDM2M 7 December 2017 16: 30
    +1
    Good afternoon, dear forum users, I want to apologize in advance to you and the administration of the Military Review. I myself am from LNR Krasny Luch, who are interested can see on the map. In general, I ended up in an unpleasant situation, I came to Moscow and wanted to earn some money on gifts for my wife and daughter, but after working in a construction office I was told that they no longer needed my services and were asked to release the occupied space, so to speak, and of course not what salary is out of the question. Of course it’s not convenient, but I don’t see any other option yet, I ask you to help me financially to at least go home, I have a Sberbank card 4276 4000 6273 2178 in the name of Alexander Alexandrovich, I can give you a phone number in person if you want to talk in person. Thanks in advance and with respect
    1. igorka357
      igorka357 9 December 2017 04: 14
      +1
      Was it legal in Russia? Worked officially? If everything wasn’t there, you had nothing to do here, and if everything is legal, then contact the police! Here you’re not having a fund to help the Slav brothers, but a military-political forum! You have such a complicated situation there, and you are going to earn money for gifts to your wife and children! Try to defend your republics, here is the best present for your relatives !!!
  4. Siberia 9444
    Siberia 9444 7 December 2017 17: 03
    +1
    You need to adjust the C300 or C400 to reassure Donald
    1. igorka357
      igorka357 9 December 2017 04: 22
      0
      How much you can adjust the complexes 50-100 .. right now we’ll do it, no question .. How can you write such nonsense, even our air defense will reflect 60% -70% of the massive strike of the American Americans, and this is all our air defense-missile defense, and not just S300-S400 , the remaining 30% will fly unfortunately, and after that our anti-aircraft defense will simply cease to exist .. and this is not my opinion, it’s the military’s calculations! And Una has no chance at all ... The fact is that with a massive strike by the Kyrgyz Republic Russia, our military will not think, we have few chances to win without the use of nuclear weapons, the whole world is against us .. our strategic nuclear forces will work in response to this, it is XNUMX% black and white in the doctrine! Therefore, the Americans will cling to us, and they will always stick, but according to Eun, they can easily .. give time!
      1. Siberia 9444
        Siberia 9444 15 December 2017 21: 20
        0
        Start to do! I thought where are the strategists of global war lol and they are nearby, the main thing is exactly everything in percentage good
  5. torbasow
    torbasow 8 December 2017 06: 41
    0
    “Not without the participation of Beijing, there have been armed Maoist insurgent groups for decades in a number of Indian states, and primarily in the north and north-east of India. China, of course, controls the Nepalese Maoists. ”
    This is nonsense and untruth. First, theoretically, all Maoists are enemies of the modern regime of the restorers of capitalism in Beijing. Secondly, in practice, no one has ever been able to give any evidence of such an influence; even directly interested Indian secret services shrugged and admitted that they did not have such facts.
    1. Navigator Basov
      Navigator Basov 8 December 2017 11: 14
      0
      The main thing to blame. There are spoons, but the sediment remains. After the 2008 year, the commission also confirmed that Russia was built in vain, but all the same, it has already gone down in history as aggressors.
  6. Sergey Cojocari
    Sergey Cojocari 8 December 2017 12: 08
    0
    To the question "Where", the answer is unequivocal, "ANYWHERE." The states will not risk fighting with Russia, because the damage from a retaliatory strike will throw them from the top of Olympus into the abyss of Tartarus. All other conflicts cannot be recognized as the Third World War, due to its insignificance, whether it is Indo-Pakistani, whether it is Arab-Israeli conflict. All these hysteria in the media, the escalation of fear among the inhabitants, and hatred between the marginals of both sides of the conflict, serve as a distraction of peoples from internal problems. But these problems are the same everywhere, some do not get drunk, the second are malnourished.
  7. andrew xnumx
    andrew xnumx 8 December 2017 12: 16
    +1
    The main thing for us is that at this time Russia will rapidly strengthen.
  8. turbris
    turbris 8 December 2017 20: 32
    0
    Of course, one can accept such an option for the development of new armed conflicts, but unfortunately this case is not very amenable to logic and any forecasts. Who could have imagined that Russia would be in Syria? According to forecasts, Russia seems to be able to avoid its participation in new conflicts, but when and where did it do without Russia? What will happen next with Ukraine? This is a very unpleasant conflict for us with a not very predictable ending, so we must continue to strengthen Russia's defense capabilities.
  9. sa-ag
    sa-ag 9 December 2017 16: 05
    0
    World war is when all of Europe will take part in it, and so it’s local conflicts, with vigorous blows, except maybe there’s no one who wants to exchange it, therefore everything will remain at the local level ...