In addition, the author notes, the stationary material and technical base of Russia, where it accumulates stocks of weapons and military equipment in peacetime, can be moved to Belarus during the immediate threat of aggression.
However, what does the term mean? "Increase of military threat"? Is this definition too subjective? Military observer Alexander Alesin answered these questions.
“We have two groups in common with Russia - a single regional air defense system and a joint grouping of the land forces of Russia and Belarus. All these groups are in a dormant state up to a certain point. Earlier this moment was called the “threatened period” - the period preceding the beginning of the war, when the parties mobilize, transfer their enterprises to the military rails. This period was very accurate, it could be noticed. But now, due to the fact that the notion of “hybrid war” has appeared, when wars are no longer declared, this concept has been replaced by a very subjective one - “military threat buildup”, and you can take anything for it: someone’s words, and hostile actions and spy detection. And compared to what it was, this is a step back and for our country is not very profitable: we can simply say that the threat has come and force to launch all the mechanisms - to transfer a single group of air defenses under a single command, send units and subunits into its composition. In the case of ground troops, everything is more complicated: the Russian part of the grouping can arrive on the territory of Belarus only in the event of the start of military actions, ”said Alesin.
In his opinion, the Russian material and technical base of weapons, which can, if necessary, be transferred to the territory of Belarus, cannot be considered a threat - the base will be under the jurisdiction of Belarus, and the period of presence of the Russian military in the territory of the republic is strictly limited by law
«Это мировая практика. Например, США на случай войны предусматривают переброску из Америки в Европу дополнительных подразделений войск, в том числе tank. Но война идет быстро, а танки в случае ее начала будут идти по океану долго, они их заранее складируют в Европе в законсервированном виде, чтобы при случае можно было воспользоваться. И там есть люди, возможно, американцы, возможно, местные, которые охраняют эту технику. Так же может храниться российская техника у нас», – пояснил эксперт.
He stressed that such a material and technical base would not have the status of a military base.
“Russia will not be able to come and simply use this base - we have many restrictions on military doctrine. In addition, all this equipment will be guarded by the Belarusian military or militarized guards. The Russian military can also be protected, but we have a restriction on the stay of the Russian units, that is, the military, on our territory - this is 2 of the month. In two months they should go down, everything is strictly regulated here. NATO also works in the same way on a rotational basis: one battalion stayed for a while, the second replaces it. But we, unlike NATO in Europe, do not have a permanent deployment of Russian military and bases, so with this we are much stricter. You should not perceive this as a threat, ”said Alesin.
In the Ministry of Defense of the Republic of Belarus, the agreement is not commented on, referring to the fact that they are only an authorized body, and the decision was made at the government level.