Military Review

“Caliphate” is getting closer to Russia

24
Islamist terrorists are defeated in Syria and Iraq. The self-styled caliphate not only changes the strategy, moving away from the concept of the “state”, but also searches for new territories. One of the permanent new “bridgeheads” has become Afghanistan, where jihadists are now consolidating and sowing fear through terrorist attacks. Caliphaters are gradually approaching Russia, which creates a very real threat to the country's security.




The militants of the Islamic State (IG, banned in the Russian Federation) are defeated both in Syria and in Iraq and spread throughout the planet. Together with the defeat in the Middle East, the strategy of the self-styled "caliphate" is changing. There are practically no “states” as such, but there are groupings and “branches” under other names that continue the “struggle”. Today, it is clear that the militants of "IG" under other "trademarks" are firmly entrenched in Afghanistan. That is why the US is talking about a new decisive operation against the remnants of the “IG”, entrenched in the country where the Americans have been unsuccessfully fighting terrorism since the fall of 2001. Now it seems that the task will become even more complicated.

In November 2017, it was Afghanistan that became the “bridgehead”, where the IG militants tried to revive the “fight”. The terrorists showed the world that it is here that they intend to continue their bloody work. Several major terrorist attacks, suicide bombings are evidence of this.

In Afghanistan, there is a terrorist group called Vilayat Khorasan, one of the so-called branches, or branches, of the Islamic State. It spreads influence over Afghanistan and Pakistan. Since January 2015, the role of the provincial “ruler” “Vilayat Khorasan” has been played by Hafiz Said Khan.

7 November, the world press reported on the attack by this grouping of the Shamshad office in the capital of Afghanistan. Islamists claimed the murder of twenty people. Subsequently, the militants' lie was revealed: officially, law enforcement authorities confirmed the death of only one employee of the TV channel and a security guard. About 20 people suffered as a result of the attack. One assailant was shot by police. The security forces were able to stop all three attackers and save many Shamshad employees from being killed.

The Taliban disowned this attack: a representative of the radicals, Sabiulla Mujahid, reported on the network that the Taliban (banned in the Russian Federation) was not involved in the attack.

16 November became aware of the next bloody terrorist attack "caliphate." It also occurred in Kabul. As a result of a suicide attack, according to various sources, up to eighteen people died. The bomber gave a blast near the restaurant, where representatives of the Jamiat-i-Islami party organized a meeting.

These high-profile terrorist attacks, which are shared by several days, became a kind of “anniversary” mark: locals “unofficially” learned about “IG” in Afghanistan three years ago. The Vilayat Khorasan group will “celebrate” 2018 in January of the “official” proclamation of the local “caliphate”. It is terrible to even imagine how the militants will mark this “date”.

"Vilayat Khorasan" is a considerable force that threatens the Afghan law enforcement agencies along with the Taliban. In this case, the latter compete for influence with the invading rival. The intransigence of the latter means the desire of the Islamists to gain a foothold in Afghanistan. And the United States, which will have to confront not only the Taliban, but also the new “caliphate”, does not like this very much. However, the Americans treat the new enemy with a strange disregard.

In late November, it became known that US special forces together with local forces in Afghanistan will conduct an operation against the "Islamic state." General John Nicholson, commander of the international coalition forces in Afghanistan, spoke of such plans. By the way, this is the same general who accused Russia of supporting the Taliban. Here is his words“Yes, Russia does support and is trying to legitimize the Taliban.” The scale of this support is difficult to determine, but the problem is that by supporting the Taliban, they help a group that justifies terrorism and prepares terrorists. ” The same Nicholson stated that in order to defeat the Taliban, a foreign military presence in Afghanistan should be maintained and “continue the current strategy.” Will this general now insist on building up a military presence in Afghanistan? After all, it will be necessary to fight against the "IG"! Hardly.

Mr. Nicholson is sure: the attempts of the "Islamic state" to create a "caliphate" cannot be crowned with success. In the course of combat operations, the group already suffers significant losses. "We have largely cut them off from external channels of funding and support, and they have difficulty replacing their leaders," the general said. "Afghanistan.ru".

In addition, according to the head of the “Strong Support” mission, Washington did not receive evidence of the transfer to Afghanistan of IS militants from Iraq and Syria. He believes that the supporters of the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (“IMU”) and former members of the Pakistani Taliban are fighting in the ranks of the Afghan group.

Meanwhile, the November terrorist attacks speak eloquently of the increased activity of ISIS in Afghanistan. Speaking about the desire of the branch "IG" to settle in Afghanistan, we can talk about the imminent desire of militants to penetrate into the countries of Central Asia. On this account there are different (often opposite) opinions of expert analysts and military experts.

The commander of the Central Military District (CEC), Vladimir Zarudnitsky, at the opening ceremony of the Collective Security Treaty Organization Collective Security Treaty Organization in Tajikistan, said that the Russian Defense Ministry is concerned about the situation in Afghanistan, where the number of IG units is growing most dynamically.

“It’s premature to talk about the end of the fight against international terrorism in the Middle East. Of particular concern is the situation in Afghanistan, where we see the growth of the number of ISIL formations as the most dynamic, ”Zarudnitsky said. RIA News".

The need for exercises, according to the commander, is due to the military-political situation in the region of Central Asia, and “primarily in the context of the migration of militants of the so-called“ Islamic state ”squeezed out of Syria and Iraq.”

Zarudnitsky believes that the strategy of these groups threatens the security of not only Afghanistan, but also neighboring countries. “These and other factors formed the basis of our teaching,” he added.

The head of the CSTO joint headquarters, Anatoly Sidorov, stands with him. He notes that the situation in the region is complicated. “The successes of the Russian Federation and other participants in the fight against terrorist organizations, primarily with ISIL, on the territory of the SAR, to a certain extent, contribute to the partial transfer of terrorists to other regions. And, of course, the most probable region is the region of Central Asia, neighboring with Tajikistan, Afghanistan. The situation is restless there ... Therefore, not in terms of a threat, but in terms of training troops, we are conducting exercises in this particular region, ”said Sidorov.

As you can see, the information of the Russian military is significantly different from the statements of the brave American general, who doesn’t see militants from Syria and Iraq in Afghanistan, and has already finished off all other terrorists in words.

In a conversation with a reporter RIA News" Grigory Lukyanov, a lecturer at the HSE, said that Afghanistan is becoming the main center of the surviving IG forces. But Afghanistan is geographically close to the post-Soviet space.

“The situation in this country can be called a dead end,” Lukyanov comments on the current situation in Afghanistan. - Neither the state authorities nor their opponents from the Taliban movement have the resources to cope with the IG. Supporters of the “Caliphate” have secured control over the flows of drug trafficking and smuggling in certain parts of the country, therefore, they are economically invulnerable. In the foreseeable future, the Afghan IG looks stable: almost nothing threatens it either from a military or economic point of view. It is to this grouping that some jihadists defeated in Syria and in Iraq can join. ”

So, the Russian military and experts fundamentally disagree with the statements of the Americans.

And such a depressing state of affairs, when the newly-formed IG not only settled, but already firmly entrenched in Afghanistan, is indeed alarming. The local branches of “IG” really intend to expand their influence in the region, which is confirmed by the recent high-profile terrorist acts, for which IG took responsibility.

So far in the country talked about the Taliban attacks. According to the latest United Nations data, in six months of 2017, in Kabul alone, more than two hundred people died as a result of the terrorist attacks, more than 770 was injured. Almost all these tragedies and deaths are the fault of the Taliban. However, now the sad statistics may change, because this year many large-scale terrorist attacks were staged by “caliphates”, including suicide bombers.

Alas, the bloodthirsty fighters will still show themselves: next year, the three-year anniversary of the “activity” of the latter-day “caliphate” in Afghanistan will be celebrated, moreover, in 2018 and 2019. Parliamentary and presidential elections are to be held in the country.

The situation is extremely tense, and only the brave American General Nicholson can claim the futility of the attempts of the local Islamic State to create a new “caliphate”.

As for Russia, there is a high danger for it: Afghan Tajiks and Uzbeks join the reviving IS. Through them, the influence of the “Caliphaters” can reach Russia itself. This would mean further migration of the “caliphate” across borders. That is why the head of the CSTO joint headquarters, A. Sidorov, pointing to the partial transfer of terrorists to other regions, including Central Asia, says that military exercises in this region are conducted precisely with the aim of training troops. A potential thunderstorm exists, and counteraction to it is practiced. As for the statements of various US military in Afghanistan, these people have been successfully proving their inability to defeat terrorism since 2001.

Observed and commented on Oleg Chuvakin
- especially for topwar.ru
24 comments
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  1. NEXUS
    NEXUS 5 December 2017 16: 04
    +2
    One of the constant new "bridgeheads" has become Afghanistan, where jihadists are gaining ground today and spread fear through terrorist attacks.

    And which is taught and covered by the United States. Syria is not the end of the war with ISIS, and I already said that. There will be Iraq and Libya the same Afghanistan. It is only unclear how we will resolve the issue of these formations in Afghanistan. Although the Russian Federation has clearly indicated that it reserves the right to strike outside its own at terrorist bases and camps. So let's see.
    1. stas
      stas 5 December 2017 17: 15
      +3
      Now in Moscow alone there are more than 200 of thousands of potential Igilovites, ready at any moment at the command of the mullah to become a real and acting basmach.
      Of course we will suppress them, but a lot of blood will be shed.
      1. Grandfather
        Grandfather 5 December 2017 17: 33
        +2
        Caliphs are gradually approaching Russia, which poses a very real threat to the country's security.
        We’ll bomb ... and cho ...
        1. Deniska999
          Deniska999 5 December 2017 18: 49
          0
          All over the world?
          1. Vadim237
            Vadim237 5 December 2017 20: 15
            +1
            If necessary, and around the world.
      2. RL
        RL 6 December 2017 14: 38
        0
        Not so long ago, maybe 5 months ago I was in Moscow. I have not seen any of the last “Russians” who would not swear, but fear. What kind of blood? Who will crush whom? Moscow is no longer Russian, and never was. "The princes are all Tatar, and the Germans are uncountable."
    2. Chertt
      Chertt 5 December 2017 21: 24
      +2
      Quote: NEXUS
      Although the Russian Federation has clearly indicated that it reserves the right to strike outside its own at terrorist bases and camps. So let's see.

      One of the reasons for the military operation of the Russian Aerospace Forces in Syria was precisely to prevent the Caliphate from approaching the borders of Russia. Destroy the militants on faraway bridgeheads. After the victory in the SAR, we will continue on other theater of operations, as they say, “until a complete and unconditional victory” It would be nice to cut off the economic support. But here Russia alone cannot do anything
    3. Nyrobsky
      Nyrobsky 6 December 2017 00: 54
      0
      Quote: NEXUS
      There will be Iraq and Libya the same Afghanistan. It is only unclear how we will resolve the issue of these formations in Afghanistan. Although the Russian Federation has clearly indicated that it reserves the right to strike outside its own at terrorist bases and camps. So let's see.
      Iraq and Libya may be pacified because the forces that can be negotiated with, “support” and “work” with their hands, “run on the ground”, but it’s more difficult with Afghanistan. Here, besides official Kabul, there is no one to negotiate with, for everyone else at the UN level has been declared terrorists and, accordingly, providing open support is problematic. Kabul lies under the Americans and will protect only itself, absolutely not preventing the bearded from switching to neighboring republics and less to nightmare Kabul. So we need to look for (create) a foothold there from the locals, making them a "moderate opposition" in the image and likeness of how the United States acted in Syria.
  2. Same lech
    Same lech 5 December 2017 16: 13
    +3
    Yes, unfortunately Oleg is right ... Russia is flooded with a breeding ground for Igilovites in the form of immigrants from neighboring countries ... among them it is very easy to get lost to a sleeping terrorist or saboteur ... try to find one what
    So far, our special services played excellently at the time, creating an overflow of a dangerous contingent from RUSSIA to SYRIA along the way taking them in pencil.
    Now, after the defeat of ISIS in Syria, they are striving back through different channels ... the danger is that they are already prepared to kill the contingent professionally.
  3. solzh
    solzh 5 December 2017 16: 23
    0
    What for us, for the third time to conduct a military operation in Afghanistan? Or will the military find another way to destroy terrorists in Afghanistan?
  4. Scopolamine
    Scopolamine 5 December 2017 17: 48
    +1
    Americans have nothing to fear from IS in Afghanistan; it is even beneficial for them. Now the forces of the Taliban will be associated with the struggle against the Islamic State and not with the amers. The Ishilovites have little chance there because they are the Muslim international and the Taliban are nationalists. Between them irreconcilable contradictions. The local ideas of the "world caliphate" ala of the New Trotsky state in a Muslim wrapper are generally on the side. Therefore, the Taliban are stronger. Well, Uncle Sam will rule the country and chuckle as his enemy Iran is investing resources in the Taliban supporting him in the fight against IS. Divide and rule
    1. kenig1
      kenig1 5 December 2017 18: 08
      +2
      Why on earth would Shiite Iran invest in the Sunni Taliban? Rather, Pakistan.
      1. Scopolamine
        Scopolamine 5 December 2017 18: 25
        +1
        The Americans in their National Interest wrote that Iran is already helping the Taliban. Apparently because IS is a threat to Iran.
        1. kenig1
          kenig1 5 December 2017 20: 50
          0
          "The Americans wrote," this is of course the truth ... Russia and Trump chose. There are Shia Hazaras in Afghanistan, here Iran helps them, and it’s very American to get dirty in relations with the Taliban.
          1. Scopolamine
            Scopolamine 5 December 2017 21: 16
            0
            The news of Iran’s support for the Taliban originally came from Afghan General Mohammed Sharif Yaftali.
            http://www.arabnews.com/node/1157666/world

            From there, the Americans replicated it. Here are some articles

            https://www.nytimes.com/2017/08/05/world/asia/ira
            n-afghanistan-taliban.html
            https://gandhara.rferl.org/a/afghanistan-iran-tal
            iban-alliance / 28399944.html
            https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific
            / with-us-policy-in-flux-russia-and-iran-challenge
            -american-power-in-afghanistan/2017/04/12/f8c768b
            c-1eb8-11e7-bb59-a74ccaf1d02f_story.html?utm_term
            = .851c06dc5d10

      2. Nyrobsky
        Nyrobsky 6 December 2017 00: 56
        0
        Quote: kenig1
        Why on earth would Shiite Iran invest in the Sunni Taliban? Rather, Pakistan.
        There is nothing to guess here, for the Taliban is a product of Pakistan.
  5. Romey
    Romey 5 December 2017 19: 23
    +2
    What a caliphate !? We defeated him at distant approaches. And already three times at least. The author is certainly an alarmist, all-tramp and agent of the State Department! Atu him! am
    1. Antares
      Antares 5 December 2017 23: 22
      0
      Quote: romey
      What a caliphate !? We defeated him at distant approaches. And already three times at least. The author is certainly an alarmist, all-tramp and agent of the State Department! Atu him! am

      Duc released about 90% (87,4% or 92 cannot agree), and Shoigu, speaking about the fight against terrorists in Syria, said that the area of ​​this country, freed from militants, is ... "998 freed cities and settlements, the freed area is 503 thousand 223 square kilometers. (The total area of ​​Syria is 185 180 square kilometers, which is approximately 2,7 times less than the figure announced by Shoigu.)
      And as far as I remember, the main reason for "helping Assad" was precisely "to stop terrorism at distant approaches." (attributed to both the president and Shoigu, but he talked about the base)
      There is a good example of the United States-climbed on the pretext of the fight against terrorism and got it at home. In general, one of the goals of the war is not achieved ?. The danger of terrorism in the Russian Federation only increased?
  6. bald
    bald 5 December 2017 22: 57
    0
    If they go to the North, they will have to peck, or how the cockroaches will spread across Kazakhstan.
  7. Nemesis
    Nemesis 5 December 2017 23: 04
    0
    In Russia, it is necessary to introduce the death penalty for terrorists and their accomplices, with the confiscation of property ... This will reduce the number of people wishing to serve ISIS ... And not only introduce the death penalty as a law, but also begin its actual use against terrorists and their supporters .. ..
  8. Anyone
    Anyone 6 December 2017 00: 35
    +2
    ... the caliphate not only changes its strategy, moving away from the concept of “state”, but also seeks new territories

    I said for a long time - it wasn’t figs that prevented IS from creating a state in Syria / Iraq. They would live there compactly, act on the nerves of the United States, Saudi Arabia and Israel. No, damn it, they bombed the young state of the Islamic proletariat, so now get a permanent terrorist threat.
  9. M. Michelson
    M. Michelson 6 December 2017 05: 37
    0
    The fact that the Taliban are fighting against IG * is only a hint. It does not paint.
    ________________________________
    * prohibited in the Russian Federation
  10. Krasnyiy komissar
    Krasnyiy komissar 6 December 2017 08: 57
    0
    Very large clusters of bearded donkey lovers should be burned with TNW, smaller ones - with napalm and volume-detonating bombs. States that host terrorist training bases must be destroyed as a result of massive bombing missiles. No humanity, no compromise - just hardcore!
  11. serge siberian
    serge siberian 8 December 2017 18: 56
    0
    And when the Americans drowned in Afghanistan, from there through the Balkans the gorych flowed to Europe and the USA. That's what the General of Russia doesn’t want to let business go there .. At that time, the locals said that here, only Russians can handle in Afghanistan. Of course I didn’t want to would again send our soldiers there, but as they say, an urgent need.