Military Review

President Lukashenko's Hybrid War: "Goodbye, Baltic States! Hello Ukraine!"

President Lukashenko's Hybrid War: "Goodbye, Baltic States! Hello Ukraine!"

There is no point in listing scandals with requirements for Moscow - the general trend is well known. As well as periodically-regular bans on milk and lobsters grown in the Batin compound. This fight live for benefits and preferences is absolutely normal for any small but very union state. It is enough to remember what scandals happen in the EU - with tractor marches to the capitals and manure dumpers under the ministers' doors.

In order not to spread the idea of ​​the tree, briefly and with minimal numbers. With the start of 2016, Belarus received the right to leave at its disposal an additional million tons of gasoline, previously shipped to Russia from refineries operating on duty-free Russian oil. And sales of gasoline to Kiev immediately increased, bringing two billion US dollars to the Minsk budget.

Zrada? (betrayal)

Do not tell my slippers. Continuation of the hybrid war of Russia on two fronts at once. First, the rapidly growing trade turnover with the Kiev regime allows Russia to keep Poroshenko and all his pack of greedy bureaucrats in check. They are no longer looking at Obama-Trump in the mouth, but at the hand of Moscow, which you can even bite, but with a strict collar and without leaving scratches. At least this hand sausages passed through Minsk.

By the way, Russia did not suffer from the cessation of gasoline supplies from Belarus, increasing every year the volume of its own production per million tons (to 39,9 million tons in the 2016 year). Moreover, Belarusian gasoline for Kiev was more expensive than Russian for 36 dollars per ton!

And gasoline, which is strategically important for Kiev, is by no means the only example of such dressing. Remember how the Old Man scolded that he and the LC / DNR did not recognize, and Poroshenko in Minsk just does not kiss the gums, and in general he is with the Nazis, "Vas-Vas"?

And now guess from one time, against whom Kiev and Washington will not be able to object when it comes to talking about peacekeepers? 20 thousand Daddy does not give, and do not ask, but a couple of hundred of several thousand - yes, easily. Indeed, the host organizer of the Minsk process, the fifth generation peacemaker, can cut the gas line for a tough word from Kiev against his "blue helmets". How can you refuse this?

Therefore, you should not roll a tank car to the Old Man - he plays smoothly and the actions are thought out in both capitals not one turn ahead. And yes, Russia helps to fill the budget of small Belarus, gives loans, creates preferences and strongly supports the independent policy of Lukashenko.

And it effectively supports. It is enough to compare Belarus with the Baltic border limitrs (more). Those from the EU funds each year simply donate billions of dollars. So what? There has been no success on the anti-Russian front over the 25 years. Instead of crowds of Russian ragged scribblers queuing for permits for resettlement in the Baltic States, "Rus-tourist" is frolicking in Riga on weekends and is lazily wondering if the owners are not tired of eating sprats?

But in the same Belarusian gasoline redirected to the “Ukrainian front” there is an important component of the “Baltic front.”

Somehow, quietly and imperceptibly, Russia built its ports on the Baltic, expanded the volumes of transshipment capacities already existing and began to gradually transfer its cargoes from the Baltic ports. Driving into a stupor greed on transit of local officials and owners: "How is it, and we? We are better dogs?"


And it will be even worse. Following our own cargo, our hands reached the Belarusian transit. The same gasoline, other petroleum products, and all the products manufactured in Belarus that are exported through the ports of the Baltic states, have somehow become imperceptibly dried up. Very slowly, but beginning.

Sharp Baltic falcons immediately found. that Russian Railways basely differentiated its tariffs for cargo from Farther First, they gave 25% discounts, then 50, and now they have completely switched to flexible rates. At the same time, Belarusian officials consistently explain that they are linked to the Baltic by long-term agreements, that they will not tolerate any political dictates, that they love their Baltic neighbors dearly (it is not clear why) and will continue to work with them.

Before the expiration of contracts.

Which means about a month and a half (to 2018 year), and where 5 years. But oil products from 23 mln. Tons of annually duty-free Russian oil from Batyana are no longer reaching the Baltic states anymore today. We are adults and we understand that if a friend and brother offers cheaper services, and he also gives you money, no one will work with the enemy. And what about the Baltic states of Belarus is not everyone's friend - at least tomorrow there everyone will start talking like true Bulbashes and turn into Lithuanian flags and Estonia and Latvia.

Potash fertilizers will disappear last from the transit goods market. Which do not depend on Russia in any way and will allow Minsk a few more years to demonstrate to the Balts the breadth of its Russian, but very white soul. Well, get something in return for something useful - as without it.

The transfer of additional cargoes to Russia is also beneficial - they will provide greater loading of their own ports, which, having a multiplicative effect, will ultimately bring profit. Plus jobs and the development of its infrastructure, rather than the Baltic.

Thanks to this step, taxpayers and taxes themselves will remain here in Russia. Due to the large volumes of transport flows, export terminals will expand, which will also pay taxes to the Russian budget. This is the real political economy.

Which in the West is called the hybrid war.

PS Russia's political economy is not an economic theory. These are two different sciences. The practical implementation of economic theories in the West did not lead to the success of their economies — wild capitalism and the abundance of colonies at the start led to them. But the maxims of economic theorists begun to be introduced something surprisingly coincided with a series of incessant crises.

As for our political economy, it is only today that they are beginning to be implemented. Freeing from the accretions of the supposedly "Marxist-Leninist" theory of the period of developed socialism and the tenets of the economists of 90's.

We have our own way and our common future with Belarus. And so who will join the road - the battle will show.
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  1. aszzz888
    aszzz888 16 November 2017 06: 49
    Somehow quietly and inconspicuously, Russia built its ports in the Baltic, expanded the volumes of transshipment facilities of existing ones and began to gradually transfer its cargoes from Baltic ports. Driving into a stupor local officials and owners who fled in transit

    ... when the tribals crawl to us to ask, and they crawl, we need to have a strong memory and a very capitalist calculation and calculation, for everything that was caused to us by the vassals of the mericatosia ... angry
    1. siberalt
      siberalt 16 November 2017 07: 02
      A thought on a tree cannot spread, but a thought (it’s a squirrel in Old Russian), figuratively as many as you like.
      Do not blame the father for the fact that he defends the economic interests of the BR. The reason for this is damned capitalism. However, in recent days there is good news. Belarus voted against the UN resolution on Crimea. We were also supported by Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Armenia. Ukrainian media on this fact broke out curses against Lukashenko, calling it a blow to the back of Ukraine. Another piece of news is that Lukashenko proposed providing his peacekeepers to the ATO zone. And this even more upset Svidomo neighbors. So, not everything is so bad. winked
      1. Basil50
        Basil50 16 November 2017 07: 29
        There is no RB interest in voicing * father *. The interests of the Lukashenko clan ONLY are traced there. Except as the succession of power, by inheritance, the other is not visible. They will cling to power there until the last. Anyone who at least offers inheritance, according to the Azerbaijani version, will be the most for the Lukashenko clan.
      2. antivirus
        antivirus 16 November 2017 07: 43
        And sales of gasoline to Kiev immediately increased, bringing to the budget of Minsk two billion American money

        Is it the price of Minsk2?
        how much more can AHL earn for us?
        who will take the favor from him?
        Fertilizer policy coordination will be?
        only "my" money can pay AHL? -he'll give me something?
        how many km of rural roads were not built due to the support of the AHL?
        1. Sergey Cojocari
          Sergey Cojocari 16 November 2017 11: 11
          Well, of course, that Russia has no roads is to blame for Lukashenko! Or maybe a zagrebny gallery? Or is his gigolo zadolbil all their selfies, or maybe the boyars who row on the same galley, but in the opposite? There is nothing to nod at the mirror, if the very face is crooked!
      3. To be or not to be
        To be or not to be 16 November 2017 09: 51
        If so, he is dependent on the help of the Russian Federation and so great as a politician and strategist .TO let him give up his personal plane. and so on and so on .. and will become the First Belarusian Bogdan Lukashenko (Khmelnitsky) and lead the people of White Russia to Great Russia .. ????
        Or weak? laughing laughing
    2. andrewkor
      andrewkor 16 November 2017 09: 16
      To begin with, I propose that the Baltic states return Russia the money paid for them, and then you can talk, we’re not animals!
  2. Herculesic
    Herculesic 16 November 2017 06: 52
    It’s just not to reproach the Belarusians, they got the leader at best of the regional general store, who managed to usurp power, and become the president of Belarus! This is not his level, a country to lead, a worthy leader does not leave him, hence all the troubles of the Republic of Belarus!
    1. Ingvar 72
      Ingvar 72 16 November 2017 07: 10
      Quote: Herkulesich
      they got the head

      Tell me, are oligarchs and bureaucrats in the Republic of Belarus as presumptuous as in Russia? wink
      1. Herculesic
        Herculesic 16 November 2017 07: 24
        Igor hi -I see Lukashenko’s “attempts” to trade Russia’s kindness towards the PEOPLE of Belarus, I don’t know about their officials what they are! !! hi
    2. antivirus
      antivirus 16 November 2017 07: 47
      they got the head of the district selpo at best,
      1. antivirus
        antivirus 16 November 2017 21: 00
        P. S., in 97, met and escorted a guest from Minsk Amkodor _- "Lukashenko turned out to be a trainee. But our dem opposition all quarreled. They could not unite.
        quarreled themselves, failed "
    3. Sergey Cojocari
      Sergey Cojocari 16 November 2017 11: 17
      One can see what level one has, according to the state of roads and the law and order (Old Man doesn’t shoot policemen in the house, doesn’t mine schools, doesn’t blow up houses; when he came to power, he didn’t shoot tanks from the Supreme Council, there’s still a lot of things NOT to be envied in silence. I wonder what heights you personally have achieved, what can you just so easily determine the level of the country's leader?
      1. antivirus
        antivirus 16 November 2017 20: 55
        I agree with you .. do not shoot in Belarus. difficult to maneuver and not drown.
        my opinion is that the Russian Federation pays subsidies (various sources and benefits) for buying a business in the Republic of Belarus (whatever they allow, they’ll buy it) + geopolitics.
        and who pays 5 billion \ year of subsidies for friendship? - GDP
  3. Rurikovich
    Rurikovich 16 November 2017 06: 56
    I personally two-handedly favor transit through Russian ports.
  4. rotmistr60
    rotmistr60 16 November 2017 07: 00
    fast-growing turnover with the Kiev regime allows Russia to keep Poroshenko and his whole bunch of greedy bureaucrats in check
    This is such a joke or sincere conviction of the author. Which bridle and whom? Regarding Belarus, it has been said more than once that Lukashenko is rushing about in search of benefits from Russia to Europe, while not forgetting to blackmail the first with his tricks. He has such a character - to build his power (the "love" of the people for him) at the expense of others.
    1. antivirus
      antivirus 16 November 2017 07: 52
      it would be more understandable to the horses about the “quick choice” and the price.
      turn the entire economy of the outskirts to the west and become importers of everything.
  5. cedar
    cedar 16 November 2017 07: 47
    "... Belarus and we have our own way and our common future. And whoever joins on the road - the battle will show."

    Not a hybrid war will show who is friend and who is the enemy in reality. Personally, I believe that the Armed Forces of Belarus and their Supreme will be with us in the same trench, and this is important. And the memories of the peacetime of our two countries will recede into the background and will seem from that trench not as bad as they seem to some now.
    1. raw174
      raw174 16 November 2017 08: 20
      Quote: cedar
      Personally, I believe that the Armed Forces of Belarus and their Supreme will be with us in the same trench

      Will not. If the war suddenly and someone attacks Russia, we will be left alone, except that Mongolia, from the old memory, will help with wool and food ... Something the Allies have not gathered in Syria, while NATO often sits shoulder to shoulder in the trench.
      1. Sergey Cojocari
        Sergey Cojocari 16 November 2017 11: 23
        Well, with Syria, it’s just not clear to you. With what hangover, Lukashenko will send Belarusians to die for the Gazprom pipe? And please don’t need about ISIS and the preventive war against terrorists on their territory ..
        1. raw174
          raw174 20 November 2017 13: 27
          Quote: Sergey Cojokar
          Well, with Syria, it’s just not clear to you. With what hangover, Lukashenko will send Belarusians to die for the Gazprom pipe? And please don’t need about ISIS and the preventive war against terrorists on their territory ..

          I don’t even say that we are obliged, the Russian Federation takes out there on my own, I’m saying that all our allies are only on paper, in fact, there’s not even a close partnership that the enemy has. All these snot about the creation of a single union state, a common legal field is a fiction, you do not need to count on Belarus, Kazakhstan and other friends, they are nothing more than partners like China, India, etc.
    2. Ronald Reagan
      Ronald Reagan 16 November 2017 23: 05
      No, Belarus will not get involved in other people's wars and conflicts. stop
      1. kashtak
        kashtak 18 November 2017 18: 39
        Quote: Ronald Reagan
        No, Belarus will not get involved in other people's wars and conflicts

        when Belarus is interested in the duty-free market for its and smuggled goods and discounts on supplies from the Russian Federation, the AHL for some reason does not mean that they are strangers. when those about whom you don’t need to talk about blew up houses in Moscow and the Donbas and AHL planes for some reason didn’t mind that someone put things in order there, but to participate, but with what hangover? And please do not talk about ISIS and the preventive war against terrorists on their territory ... so now tell me Roni whose ally is Belarus and the AHL personally?
  6. XII Legion
    XII Legion 16 November 2017 07: 54
    Belarusian leader - will give one hundred points ahead to everyone else in the post-Soviet space
  7. Brigadier
    Brigadier 16 November 2017 08: 10
    From the article it turns out that Russia needs to pour more and more into Belarus on the terms of Lukash, which operates on the principle - both yours and ours, and not to forget yourself ...
    He exports to Russia ALL ALL products manufactured in BELARUS: even seafood from the Belorussian Sea, even bananas from sunny Belarusian plantations, and he has a lot of money from this. Cool manager, ept!
    What about Russia? And what about Russia? It will be erased again! Friendship is Above All! Indeed, for this friendship Lukash, then, somewhere and someday maybe he will speak out well about Russia and vote a few times in her favor, not forgetting to supply Ukraine with everything necessary to restore that “constitutional order in the Southeast”! Ugh! It's disgusting!
    Lukash is now the same Panikovsky for Russia - "Saw, Shura, saw ..."
    With Ukraine in the early 2000s, it began exactly the same ...
    And then came the Maidan ...
    1. Sergey Cojocari
      Sergey Cojocari 16 November 2017 11: 29
      What happened to Ukraine is entirely the fault of Yeltsin and Putin. One appointed ambassador Chernomyrdin there, and the second Zurabov. We drank and slept, and maybe even worse, sold all the political and economic influence of Russia in Ukraine. I see here they are driving a wave against the Old Man, and I want to ask you "racers", with whom will you stay ??? With Mongolia?
      1. kashtak
        kashtak 18 November 2017 19: 47
        Quote: Sergey Cojokar
        I want to ask you "racers" with whom you stay ??? With Mongolia?

        counterquestion. and with whom are we now?
    2. Starik72
      Starik72 19 November 2017 15: 57
      Foreman. Yes, you are not a foreman, but an auxiliary to the same liberals. So change your signboard!
  8. Cynic
    Cynic 16 November 2017 10: 44
    periodically-regular bans on milk, then on lobsters grown on the Batina Compound.

    And his vast compound, right up to the English Channel and in some places further ...
  9. Sergey Krotov
    Sergey Krotov 16 November 2017 11: 07
    The microscopic level of body movements of the Belarusian Kurkul in our direction is presented as a mythical “standing back to back”. Russia buys Luke's “alliance” at the same rates as Kadyr’s “love of peace”.
    1. Ronald Reagan
      Ronald Reagan 16 November 2017 22: 51
      And there is. But this is too cruel the truth for this forum. laughing
  10. Vikentiy
    Vikentiy 16 November 2017 11: 08
    One should be proud of such neighbors as Belarusians, and not spread rot with the help of the Russian fifth column. This is in Russia the "military good" produced by the people, caviar or counterfeit under caterpillars, we are rich. Investors taking profits leave us only taxes, mineral resources and factories do not belong to the government and the State. Thank God yesterday the tractor driver and welder received a medal - that’s who should be praised, not Kirkorov!
  11. Bat
    Bat 16 November 2017 19: 55
    I sincerely respect Belarusians. Hardworking and hospitable people. I do not mean pro-fascist opposition. But the Old Man, they’ll soon start playing. Crawls back to Russia.
  12. DELOG
    DELOG 16 November 2017 21: 51
    We now make foreign policy money,
    only real friends can’t be bought for money, and you’ll drive your people into poverty!
  13. ship
    ship 19 November 2017 00: 09
    This is not an article, but an informational stuffing, moreover, outlined in some kind of foolish manner.
    The author’s opinion that Lukashenko ",,, plays MUCHLY and the actions are thought out more than one step ahead in both capitals" is untrue, JUST A FALSE ORDINARY.
    Of all the writings written by Mikhail Onufrienko, only one sober thought can be noted - “Belarus and we have our own way and our common future.”
  14. demos1111
    demos1111 20 November 2017 16: 18
    Quote: Rurikovich
    I personally two-handedly favor transit through Russian ports.

    We cannot be independent. Can not. We’ll either be in the west, or with Russia. Better with Russia.