Kubat Rakhimov: Railway to China - Kyrgyzstan’s civilizational choice against Russia and Kazakhstan
Scheme: The main standards of railway gauge. Source: Wikipedia.
Map: Dissemination of railway gauge standards across the world. Source: US Central Intelligence Agency. CIA Factbook - 2006. Green indicates the Russian standard 1520 mm, which is used in Russia, the CIS countries, Mongolia, Finland, partly in Afghanistan and Slovakia.
Interview of international expert on transport issues Kubat Rakhimov BakuToday:
REGNUM: The Kyrgyz government announced its firm intention to build a China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway. How do you rate this project? What are the pros and cons?
To begin with, let's clarify - often the Chinese themselves call this road simply the “Sino-Uzbek railway”. That is, this is an indicator. They "forget" to mention that 268 kilometers of this railway pass through the territory of Kyrgyzstan. What is the danger? There is a geopolitical aspect and a geo-economic aspect. That is what I am talking about at all events related to transport, the construction of the railway is a conscious civilization choice of Kyrgyzstan. That is, in fact, there are three scenarios. The first is to preserve the vector of orientation towards Russia and the post-Soviet space — not just preservation, but real integration steps. That is, first to the Customs Union, then to the Common Economic Space and the future Eurasian Union. In this case, you just need to be honest and say, “Yes, we are oriented along this axis.” There is a short-term positive effect in the orientation towards China. primarily economic — building a road, China is a rich country, a real investor, a trading partner, etc. But in the long run, the Chinese “entry” will become an expansion.I can give an example of China that is the construction of the Qinghai-Tibet railway From an engineering point of view, this is an interesting project - because some railway stations are located at an altitude of about 5 thousands of meters above sea level, passengers are even given oxygen masks, there are unique bridges and tunnels, etc. But you shouldn’t lose sight of mind the social and economic consequences of the entry of big China into autonomous Tibet. The Chinese who come there from internal China do not come back, and their number is in the hundreds of thousands, that is, there is a massive lyv low-skilled labor.
Due to the construction of the road and the development of deposits that are among the largest copper and nickel miners, the indigenous Tibetans were forced to leave their inhabited territories, receiving only scanty compensation. There is a destruction of the ecological balance. In general, this road gave nothing to Tibetans. Only the flow of tourists has increased, but at the same time, the flow of people who do not recognize local life values has also increased.
Regarding Kyrgyzstan - in the republic, according to official data, 90 of thousands of official Chinese migrants are registered. But, as the experience of all Chinatowns shows, unofficial figures usually exceed this figure 2,5 - 4 times, depending on the level of corruption of law enforcement agencies. Therefore, I think that in Kyrgyzstan the real number of Chinese migrants is already about a quarter of a million. Now consider the population of Kyrgyzstan - its number will be 5,5 million people, of which 500.000 is stable in earnings - in Russia, in Kazakhstan, somewhere else. And instead of these people who are absent in the country, we have already received a quarter of a million Chinese. If there is this railway, then the number of Chinese in Kyrgyzstan will surely grow to half a million - despite the strengthening of the police, customs, immigration and border services. What is Chinese 500.000 is already 10% of the population of the republic. This is already a "critical mass".
REGNUM: What can you say about Chinese migrants? How ideological are they?
The Chinese who come to Central Asia are very passionate. Oddly enough, all these traders, day laborers, farmers - they are very ideological. They are all patriots of "big China", bearers of the imperial ideology. Of course, they do not shout about this at every corner, and the icon depicting Mao is probably worn only on holidays. But, try to communicate with them, and you will understand that they even work abroad for the benefit of the big idea of Zhongguo (Middle State, Celestial Empire as the center of the Universe). Thus, it is possible to come to the conclusion that every tenth citizen of Kyrgyzstan will be Chinese-huaqiao.
The second risk is that the Chinese use the most "barbarous" technology of mining. The development of deposits in Tibet and XUAR showed that economic expediency prevails over other considerations. And, if it is possible to use low-skilled labor of the masses of workers instead of operating expensive modern devices, then the Chinese will prefer to use people. At the first stage, there will be a positive effect from such cooperation, but then, I doubt that the residents of Kyrgyzstan will be happy to see the mutilated landscape - the unclosed tailing dumps destroyed by heavy trucks. The Chinese do not stand on ceremony - in the same Tibet, they destroyed about 15 percent of all pastures. By the way, the important moment is that while we build the above-mentioned railway, the Chinese will have time to break the roads that they themselves are building in Kyrgyzstan now on credit. After all, they do not comply with weight standards. In the end, this will put a heavy burden on Kyrgyzstan - these are loans, albeit long-term ones. With such an attitude of the Chinese to a foreign ecology, nothing will grow in Kyrgyzstan after that.
The third risk. There is on the part of the initiators of the construction of the Chinese-Kyrgyz-Uzbek railway, I would say naive or malicious intent - that the Chinese will create a lot of jobs for the local population. As a transport expert, as a researcher in this area, I can say a few simple things. First, ethnic Han Chinese built the railway in Tibet. That is, the Tibetans did not work there, although, formally, the Chinese had to hire them. One of the reasons was the language barrier. Imagine the interaction of a Chinese foreman and a Kyrgyz worker - do you need to hire another translator? In the project budget, this is clearly not foreseen! Low qualifications also play a significant role - according to the Chinese, the local population has an insufficient level of knowledge and skills and is too lazy.
Next, look who is building the Torugart-Bishkek road? Chinese. Chinese labor, Chinese builders and Chinese equipment. Well, maybe they buy fuel and some food from local suppliers. And that's all ... In fact, they arrived, earned money and left. That is, the effect at the level of the local, local economy is scanty. The same will happen with the construction of the China-Uzbekistan railway. Formally, the creation of 10 thousands of jobs will be announced, and in fact thousands of Chinese will build the road 2-3.
REGNUM: Will they be employees of one of the Chinese corporations?
Not. In China, most of the railways are built by soldiers of the famous PLA railway troops. In this case, the military personnel of the Chinese army, even if they are from railway troops, will be located on the territory of Kyrgyzstan for about 6-7 years. Let them be in civilian clothes and with passports, but we know that in China the railways are being built by the military.
REGNUM: And what does it change? If you wish, China may seize Kyrgyzstan and launching an offensive from its territory ...
We are not talking about capture. We are talking about the "infiltration" of military personnel of the Chinese People’s Liberation Army on the territory of Kyrgyzstan. Albeit with good purposes, but it is - "seepage." As part of the construction of the railway, it will not be negotiated as interaction under bilateral military-political agreements. That is, if it were said that the authorities of the People's Republic of China and Kyrgyzstan sign an agreement on military-strategic partnership, under which the Chinese side delegates thousands of unarmed railway troops to 2, this is one thing. And the fact that such a paper will not be signed is another. I doubt that they will raise this topic at all.
Kyrgyzstan is porto franco for geopolitical games. Whether we like it or not, there is the American “Transit Center”, there are Russian military installations - we still, as they say, lacked only the Chinese. That is, the Chinese military, building the railway. Let us prove a thousand times that they are civilians, but, I repeat, in China, the railroads are built by the military - because the Chinese understand that the railroad implies a strategy. Moreover, military strategy.
REGNUM: Could you explain the moment with the gauge? So that it is extremely clear from the point of view of strategic value.
Rut, it usually has two components: economic and military-strategic or military-tactical in our time. From an economic point of view, it is ideal that there is one standard throughout the world or that the continent has one width of the road, so that you do not have to rearrange anything, do not have to do anything. In India and Pakistan, the widest railways, which were built by the British, they are wider than the Russian. In Spain, the gauge, which differs from the French, Franco-German, relatively speaking, “Stefensson” gauge 1435 mm, is a kind of standard. The Russian track is wider, 1524 mm, so it also happened, and largely because of the military-strategic factor.
Therefore, the Soviet Union, for example, built a broad gauge in the fraternal countries of the socialist camp, for example, in Slovakia and the GDR. In the GDR, it was a ferry crossing, now called Sassnitz. In the Baltic ports, Soviet military equipment, including wagons with manpower, immediately rolled on this ferry, he arrived at Mukran (a large railway port complex on the island of Rugen - IA REGNUM), there it was unloaded in a wide rut, that is, quickly enough and quite effective. The same thing happened in Slovakia, etc. Whether we want it or not, a certain geopolitical map of the world, it was drawn before us. Therefore, a rut gap is important from the point of view of an obstacle to the transfer of large groups of manpower and equipment - any cadet knows this. A year ago, speaking in China, I got the audacity and the Chinese people read a little edification in honor of the fact that they, of course, well done, which they did in 20 years. But I told them that 20 years is a short time, in terms of historical prospects. And the fact that they were able to build 2 railway entry points to Kazakhstan, I mean the resuscitation "Dostyk - Alashankou", and the construction of the passage "Khorgos - Korgas", to the Zhetigen station and further to Alma-Ata, worthy, no doubt. Construction of roads in Central Asia, Western China - Western Europe, in particular, and so on. But the Chinese could not build a narrow-gauge trans-Kazakhstan railway. Although they spent quite a lot of money on pulling the Kazakh elites.
Their idea was simple - a narrow gauge that ends in Alashankou, to move further up to the Iranian border. In Iran, too, a narrow track. And the eloquent Beijing said: “Guys, why do you need an overload? We are friends with you, we ourselves consume your oil, gas, metal. We want to go to the Persian Gulf so that peaceful Iranian comrades could send us peaceful Iranian oil. And there will be happiness for everyone ". Kazakhs say: "Everything is fine, everything is wonderful." But when the Soviet Union collapsed, certain parameters of the collapse of the states were agreed. And one of such parameters (often Kyrgyz politicians forget about it) was the question of the gauge width. The fact that if you want to change the gauge, you must coordinate at the level of intergovernmental associations, the CIS, EurAsEC, etc. We were not born in an orphanage. Kyrgyzstan is a full member of the CIS, a full member of the EurAsEC, the same heir to the USSR with all its rights and obligations. When the Security Council of the Russian Federation recommended to their Kazakh colleagues a little more thorough approach to this issue, they heeded this friendly advice and, as part of their development strategy, namely the creation of the Customs Union and a common economic space with Russia and Belarus, said: I don’t need it. And it’s better for us that both Khorgos and the existing Dostyk were overload stations, where the wheelsets are changing. "
So having refused the 4 billionth project, Kazakhstani elites made their choice. In favor of Russia and in favor of Europe.
For some reason, the Kyrgyz elites did not make such a civilization choice. They want to sit on two chairs, but this does not happen. The last 20 of years shows that the Kyrgyz multi-vector model suffers the most serious flaw - in order to be multi-vector, you need to be interesting to potential partners. The simplest example from life is that if a girl believes that she has the right to be friends with several guys, she must have something above, something must be below and something must be in her head. And slender legs.
I very much doubt that infrastructure, industrial and other projects in Kyrgyzstan meet the criteria of "90-60-90". It's just an element of chance that in 2001, the American base "settled" in Kyrgyzstan. Since this happened, the country has become "feverish." Until 2001, Kyrgyzstan was a quiet, peaceful, “haven”. Some experiments were carried out, "an island of democracy", an island of something else. The elites were fairly calm. After 2001, the balance was broken. The violation of this balance leads to the fact that people do not quite adequately understand their civilizational orientation.
There is a third way. Neither the Eurasian Union is Russian-Kazakh-Belarusian, nor China, but some third way, conditionally speaking, the search for "selfhood". A certain "country of Manas" in white caps, pastures, yurts, no civilization, etc. It is possible, no problem, in many countries this has already passed, each has its own version of autarkic development. The result is known. One way or another, it will be necessary to make a civilization choice.
The following risks. As soon as the first stage will be built, along the route Torugart-Osh-Andijan, I think the Chinese side will quickly forget their promises to build a branch that connects with Balykchy. At best, they will bring the railroad to the deposits they need, and they will stop. Why? Yes, because they are not interested. Then, over time, they may build it in order to “throw” the human mass into the fertile valleys of the Chui oblast, the Issyk-Kul valley. Everything will depend on the instructions of the party and government in Beijing. They will say that it is necessary to squeeze out 250 thousands to the people, so be it. These people will quickly "spread" to the north of Kyrgyzstan and quickly build a road to ensure such subsidence. Not immediately, but in stages. China has no reason to hurry. But the union of the North and the South of Kyrgyzstan is not in the interests of Beijing, they need a weak and conflicting vassal.
I want to emphasize that the Chinese project is purely utilitarian. For China, transit to the Caspian region is important. The PRC does not want to depend on Kazakhstan, because Kazakhstan has already made its choice. They need to let this highway to the south, even through the conflicting Tajikistan and Uzbekistan. The Chinese are masters of diplomacy, and I think that when we tinker with this scheme we will conditionally call “Caspian resources going to China and Chinese goods going to densely populated areas of Asia Minor”, they will find a common language with the Kyrgyz, Uzbek, and Tajik transit, and Turkmen. This is a matter of technology. Therefore, they insist to enter Kyrgyzstan with a narrow gauge in order to extend it, over time, over the territories of other states. This is how the "cancer metastasis" will go. And the development of deposits in Kyrgyzstan as an option. In addition to a large geopolitical task.
REGNUM: Tell me please, what about the price? I noticed that the price is constantly growing. Do not you think that the estimate is too high?
I was very funny to read Mr. Otorbaev one day when he said that building a 3,5 road cost a billion dollars, and the next day Mr. Babanov says that 4,5 is a billion. This suggests that they do not have accurate calculations.
The most important thing now is again returning to the civilization choice of the country. Imagine the situation: you have accumulated a lot of debts, that is, an infrastructure project (we will now return to the cost, they are simply interrelated), exceeds the country's budget. That is, if you take the figures of Babanov - 4,5 billion dollars and the budget of Kyrgyzstan somewhere now 3-3,5 billion dollars. The point is that, roughly speaking, the infrastructure project is very much higher than the annual and, notice, deficit budget of the country. This is all done in debt, no money. In addition, the amount of external debt is also comparable to the above amounts. Whether it is “resources for investment”, or loans, in any case, this is a debt burden for an incomprehensible project. And after that, Kyrgyzstan is going to join the Customs Union, the Common Economic Space, the Eurasian Union.
Over time, in this single economic space, the question of the introduction of a single currency will arise. And we from Kyrgyzstan will get Greece-2? With such projects, our children will get a “Greek syndrome” of a headache, and all debts will be a burden on the population and senior partners in the economic union. I think that neither Russia nor Kazakhstan would like to get such a partner with the railway, which has the character of "hitting the underdogs" within the framework of the agreement on the CSTO. This road, in fact, will cut off the interests of Russia and Kazakhstan from the Fergana Valley, and, in the long term, “hang” huge debts on them. And all because some Kyrgyz politicians wanted to become the first Kyrgyz billionaire.
Rakhimov Kubatbek Kalyevich is an expert on infrastructure development of Central Eurasia. Born on September 8, 1970 in the city of Frunze of the Kirghiz USSR in a family of power engineers and scientists. In 1992 he graduated from the Belarusian State University with a degree in political economy. In 2007 he received an Executive MBA degree from the Polish Academy of Entrepreneurship. L. Kozminsky. Currently an applicant for a Ph.D. on the topic of the dissertation "Formation of the Central Asian railway ring through the construction of the Chui-Fergana trans-Kyrgyz railway". In 2000-2001, he headed the representative office of the railways of Kazakhstan in Belarus, Ukraine and the Baltic countries, was the first deputy representative of the railways of Kazakhstan in the Russian Federation. In 2002, he was appointed advisor to the Minister of Transport and Communications of the Republic of Kazakhstan on the development of transit potential. In 2003-2004, he headed the Center for Integrated Transport Solutions "TransEurasia", Moscow. 2005-2007 - head of the representative office of the Minsk Automobile Plant in Central Kazakhstan. In 2009-2011, he headed an international research group on the study of transport corridors in Central Eurasia. Currently a member of the board of directors of Kazagromarketing JSC, Astana, Kazakhstan, director of the consulting company Smart Business Solutions Central Asia, Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan, head of the CIS representative office of the international company Central EurAsia trade & logistic LP.
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