Military Review

The guarantor guarantees: the victory over terrorism in Syria, but not the end of the war

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Syria’s early return to the pre-war level is hampered by a number of factors, one of which remains Ankara’s two-faced policy in this process. On the eve, the Turkish army, having fired at the quarters of Kurdish formations in Aleppo, once again demonstrated their unwillingness to follow the agreements reached in Astana.


The guarantor guarantees: the victory over terrorism in Syria, but not the end of the war


In addition to Turkey, other Syrian “friends” also bring considerable difficulties. It can already be stated that the plan for the collapse of Syria has failed and now the United States, Israel and other "partners" are not averse to receiving a consolation prize. For Jerusalem, the Golan Heights remains such a tasty morsel, for Washington - oil fields in the eastern part of the country.

Ankara, who pursues ignoble goals, is trying to save the face of a decent player, doesn’t mind making money off of the neighborly good. Taking on the role of a party to the conflict, designed to bring the warring parties to an early reconciliation, the Turkish guarantor still performs the functions of a brake in the peacekeeping mechanism.

In the course of the May talks held in Astna in Russia, Turkey and Iran, the Turkish authorities were able to deploy a small group of troops in Idlib province (one of the four de-escalation zones) to carry out peacekeeping activities. In early October, Ankara deployed the first observation point on the Syrian border, and by mid-month, the first armored vehicles with a red crescent on board entered Idlib. For two weeks, the guarantor was so fascinated by the introduction of his “peacekeepers” that he seemed to stop noticing how the peacekeeping operation began to resemble an act of aggression more and more.

This week, the Syrian neighbor dispelled remaining doubts on his account, having made repeated artillery strikes against the positions of Kurdish formations in the areas of Afrin and Aleppo. In the latter during the Saturday shelling killed 3 civilians.

Obviously, in the actions of Turkey and, in particular, its current leader, Rejep Tayyip Erdogan, a certain “conflict of interests” is now traced. Rendering active assistance to the militants throughout the war, and, in fact, being for them one of the main trading partners, Ankara is forced to observe the inglorious end of its wards and even formally participate in this process. You can not discount the relations of the Turkish president with the leaders of terrorist groups. As is known, he is personally acquainted with some of them.
Be that as it may, the main thing that pushes Ankara to continue to push troops into Syria is a lost opportunity to “chop off” a piece of neighboring land. Understanding this fact pushes the Turkish authorities to mobilize available resources, violate the Astana agreements, bombard the hated Kurds, and even go into conflict with a military ally in the United States. Remarkably, dreaming of “making money” on the problems of a neighbor, Erdogan runs the risk of acquiring problems for himself, spoiling relations not only with the States, but also with Moscow, and ultimately losing the Russian market. Also remains an open question about the creation of Kurdish autonomy.

In the meantime, the next negotiations on Syria begin in Kazakhstan, where the Turkish side, for sure, will declare the need for an early resolution of the conflict, while continuing to prepare a springboard for a full-scale attack on Idlib. The only question is, will the spirit suffice to turn this adventure under the nose of geopolitical heavyweights? With a strong desire, you can pinch the Turkish nose ...
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  1. Grandfather
    Grandfather 1 November 2017 05: 37
    0
    "The guarantor guarantees" .... their work, the guarantors have such ... guarantee ...
    1. Stas157
      Stas157 1 November 2017 08: 51
      +8
      . With a great desire, the Turkish nose can be pinched ...

      The topic is not disclosed. This is how the Turks gathered to pinch their nose? Why, even after the downing of our military aircraft, no one began to pinch them ?? Maybe the reason was too shallow?
      I have always said and still say that the Kremlin has too bright expectations about Turkey. Russia is investing too much in an unreliable partner who has already stabbed in the back and has not been severely punished for it. Therefore, according to the law of the classical genre, the next blow is inevitable. The driver will be the divergence of geopolitical interests that has always existed in our common history.
      1. creak
        creak 1 November 2017 09: 24
        +2
        Quote: Stas157
        I have always said and still say that the Kremlin has too bright expectations about Turkey.

        But how can you aim at the general line ... Turkey and I have another cycle of love now and that’s the point .. You will be told when it will end and when you will have to condemn the duplicity of Turkey and its cunning plans ...
      2. Stirbjorn
        Stirbjorn 1 November 2017 10: 03
        +1
        Quote: Stas157
        The topic is not disclosed. This is how the Turks gathered to pinch their nose? Why, even after the downing of our military aircraft, no one began to pinch them ?? Maybe the reason was too shallow?

        We are pulling the pipe to the Turks at our own expense, as the author was going to pinch his nose with such layouts - Erdogan twists his friend Vlad, as he wants, holding it with this thread on the hook. And the S-400, and the nuclear power plant, now I’ve sold tomatoes! What are the Astana accords ?! wassat
        1. Stas157
          Stas157 1 November 2017 10: 37
          +4
          Quote: Stirbjorn
          We are pulling the pipe to the Turks at our own expense, as the author was going to pinch his nose with such layouts - Erdogan twists his friend Vlad, as he wants, holding it with this thread on the hook.

          And here is the confirmation!
          The Turkish Stream Russian gas pipeline is turning into a blackmail tool that the Turkish authorities skillfully use. ... ... Ankara may demand from Moscow to lift the ban on the construction of the Trans-Caspian gas pipeline, through which Turkmen gas will go through Turkey to Europe, to the delight of the Turks and on Mount Gazprom. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan bluntly stated that Turkey seeks to supply Turkmen gas to Europe through its territory. However, Russia has resisted the construction of the Trans-Caspian pipe for many years, since cheap Turkmen gas will undermine the profitability of Russian export projects
      3. You Vlad
        You Vlad 1 November 2017 12: 30
        0
        Quote: Stas157
        I have always said and still say that the Kremlin has too bright expectations about Turkey. Russia is investing too much in an unreliable partner who has already stabbed in the back and has not been severely punished for it.

        How are you going to supply gas to Europe? belay
        1. Stas157
          Stas157 1 November 2017 17: 46
          +3
          Quote: You Vlad
          How are you going to supply gas to Europe?

          Old worked option! Without intermediaries. Directly to Europe. To Bulgaria. They already agree. They ask themselves!
          1. You Vlad
            You Vlad 1 November 2017 18: 31
            0
            Quote: Stas157
            Old worked option! Without intermediaries. Directly to Europe. To Bulgaria.

            And it's all request Bulgaria cannot make decisions in such situations; it is not an independent state in such matters yes She is an object of politics, not a subject! So she is for, only when we are already pulling the pipeline to Turkey! But when they were pulling to Bulgaria, she said no fellow Let's Stas the second option, deuce! And Stas 50% of the Turkish stream has already been built! Is it at your expense to cover losses? yes
            1. Stas157
              Stas157 1 November 2017 18: 38
              +4
              Quote: You Vlad
              Bulgaria cannot make decisions in such situations

              So agree this hour! Europe needs gas, the adoption of Nord Stream 2, a clear confirmation of this.
              Quote: You Vlad
              Let's Stas second option, deuce!

              And it turns out you love role-playing games! Well, the teacher is one of you, quite frankly, completely useless! Train in the sandbox.
            2. Stas157
              Stas157 1 November 2017 18: 49
              +3
              Quote: You Vlad
              And Stas 50% of the Turkish stream has already been built! Is it at your expense to cover losses?

              Putin will cover. This is his cant. But, by the way, it’s not too late to turn to Bulgaria, look at the flow map, they go one way at the beginning.
              1. You Vlad
                You Vlad 1 November 2017 18: 56
                0
                Quote: Stas157
                Putin will cover.

                And what does Putin have to do with it, just so immediately you have Putin! You thought up to you and pay the bill yes!
                Quote: Stas157
                So agree this hour!
                Oh hard with you crying
              2. You Vlad
                You Vlad 1 November 2017 19: 11
                0
                Quote: Stas157
                This is his cant.

                Well why are you playing like that wink So Bulgaria has left the project, too
                Quote: Stas157
                his cant
                ? wassat Brrrr
  2. Uncle lee
    Uncle lee 1 November 2017 05: 38
    +4
    All this anti-Igil coalition strives to grab, which is still bad. For this, Igil was created and after that he successfully "fights" with him!
  3. Knowing
    Knowing 1 November 2017 05: 46
    +1
    Hmm, that's for sure - "east is a delicate matter" like a thread; and the Anglo-Saxons and the "children of Moses" are trying to tear this "thread" .... The "knots" are knitted by Putin and Assad ... Erdogan (the plant is burning, Russian) like that monkey in a joke ... Although .. .. That "monkey" may miscalculate ...
    1. San Sanych
      San Sanych 1 November 2017 08: 52
      0
      There is a good saying: don’t call the monkey for nuts, eat everything
  4. protoss
    protoss 1 November 2017 09: 24
    +1
    the author does not understand what is happening in Syria. why is it that Turkey was about to "chop off" a piece of Syria? there were no such plans; there were plans to replace the leadership of all Syria with a more loyal and religiously close one. these plans remain with Ankara. Erdogan’s goal was and remains a united, peaceful and loyal to him Syria. while others (Assad, Kurds) seek to capture more square kilometers and oil rigs, the Turks are gathering under their wing a population that will sooner or later become an electorate. there are about 3,7 million people in the idlib, about 600 thousand in the territory of Azaz-Jarablus-Albab, and 3,2 million Syrians in Turkey. In total, after establishing control over the idlib, 7,5 million people are obtained. if after the idlib the Turks cleaned up Afrin and Manbij, then after the expulsion of the RPKashniks from there, they will receive another 1,5 million people. at the same time, in the occupied territories, the Turks are restoring infrastructure, opening schools and hospitals, repairing mosques, and creating the local police. it’s not hard to guess that if Syria is pacified and elections are held, these millions of people will vote for pro-Turkish candidates.
    there was no duplicity or inconsistency in Erdogan’s actions, and he doesn’t, as he called Kurds from the SDS (sdf / ypg) as terrorists, he calls him as he said that he wouldn’t let them “create a terrorist state on the Turkish border”, he does as supported the Syrian opposition, and now they are roofing. everything goes according to plan.
  5. Ural resident
    Ural resident 1 November 2017 09: 35
    0
    Let the Turks understand the Kurds. Assad and the videoconferencing already have enough problems. It turns out the unspoken struggle of the Turks with the amers - it is better to act with their hands.
    After the establishment of order, there will be many years of behind-the-scenes games for influence - and you can raise the question of the political gradual withdrawal of all unnecessary troops from Syria throughout its territory
  6. rotmistr60
    rotmistr60 1 November 2017 11: 47
    0
    two-faced politics of Ankara

    And how not to take advantage of the situation to solve their (Turkish) problems? Therefore, everything is natural. I hope that the Russian side is considering all possible options for Ankara’s actions.
  7. Scorpio05
    Scorpio05 1 November 2017 12: 51
    +1
    The little article is weak, based entirely on empty voices. The author makes unfounded accusations, presenting them as a fait accompli. Turkey "supported", "traded with terrorists" and so on. Turkey is supposedly going to chop off a piece of Syria. Why would it and who would allow it? The position of Turkey has been voiced more than once. Syria will be united and indivisible. The biggest problem for Turkey is the PKK and its Syrian branch. The facts of the author are more like gossip, or even direct defamation and denunciation ... "as you know," "obviously." To whom and how is it known and why is this obvious? Are there any facts confirmed from independent sources or from Russian officials? Why did the author decide so? Questions and not a single answer ...