From Turkey’s invasion of Syria, perhaps a few days separate us. Today, almost a whole army corps of 1 tank and 2 mechanized divisions with support and support units concentrated on the border with the province of Idlib. For several days, the reconnaissance of the Turkish army has been working intensively in the border zone and is probing the enemy’s positions, which speaks of the army’s latest preparations for the invasion ...
The role of Turkey in the victories of Assad
Turkey controlled Idlib until the summer of 2017, with the help of her special forces and the so-called pro-Turkish opposition detachments. Including thanks to this, the government army at the end of 2016 managed to quickly break the resistance of the militants in Aleppo and agree on the release of their remnants from the city (which is approximately 8 000 people).
Also in the most important months of spring 2017, it was Ankara’s control over Idlib that allowed the CAA to launch large-scale offensive operations to liberate the eastern part of the province of Aleppo, Hama and Homs.
Do not control Ankara Idlib in May-June 2017, the government army would not have been able to prevent the Kurdish offensive on the west coast of the Euphrates and the connection of their units with the attacking militants of the southern front in terms of their political consequences. Then the bill went on for days. And just these days and weeks of the CAA was given by Ankara, which also did not really want to see the land corridor between Jordan and Kurdistan.
As they say, here the interests of Damascus, Moscow and Ankara coincided completely, and therefore there was such cordial understanding and mutual assistance.
The “Answer” of the USA and Allied Problems
The United States could not calmly watch as their plans in Syria collapse one by one, and therefore the coup perpetrated by the An-Nusra militants (banned in the Russian Federation) in July 2017, was a desperate attempt by Washington to thwart the Syrian army’s offensive operations or at least slow down their successful development.
“An-Nusra” is actually in the rear of the main parts of the CAA fighting for ISIS (forbidden in the Russian Federation) - not the best neighborhood, which was shown by the September battles, when the suicide attack of militants in the Maan area was opened and repulsed in time. But the very threat of repetition of such operations binds the forces of the army so far.
And in general, the very presence of Al-Nusra militants in the province of Idlib makes the Syrian reconciliation an impossible dream, and therefore it must be understood that a military operation to enforce peace in this area is to be. And it is very good that Turkey and the “opposition” controlled by it will become the main striking force here.
By the way, Russia, with Damascus and Tehran, is also almost ready to help its Turkish allies in this matter. Akerbat boiler has sunk into oblivion, and the forces in this direction are freed. The government is simply obliged to take control of the Aleppo-Hama highway and the territory east of it. This will ensure the stability of his position in this second most important city of Syria and will allow you to have the best starting conditions at the negotiations after the end of the main hostilities.
Prelude
In general, the situation is ripe and even overripe. And this is best felt in Turkey itself, which, having lost control over the situation in its area of responsibility in Syria, may lose some of the dividends on which it expects. Therefore, there is nothing surprising in the words that Turkish President Recep Erdogan said at the opening of the AKP's 26 consultation meeting in Afyonkarahisar:
“We are expanding the space that we have cleared in the region thanks to Operation Euphrates Shield, taking new steps and working for Idlib’s security. A serious operation is underway in Idlib, which will continue. We cannot say to our brothers who run from Aleppo and arrive in Idlib: "Die or stay." We must give them a helping hand. Steps are being taken now, and they are continuing. At the end of the operation in Idlib, other new initiatives will continue to be taken on this issue. Turkey will not be able to say "welcome" to those who pose a danger to Turkey within its borders and beyond. On the contrary, we must eliminate these threats on the spot at the moment of their occurrence, may Allah give us success in this matter. When we succeed in this, we will be a strong Turkey. At the moment, we have already taken some steps and continue to take them. ”
Turkey needs to break the situation in Idlib at any cost through the knee. If she does not do this, then her role in the region, as a result of the Syrian campaign, could significantly weaken. Not to take control of any significant part of Syria, not to prevent the formation of Kurdish autonomy, even simply and to expect that its interests will be observed, is the height of naivety. Even if they coincide today with the Russian and to some extent Iranian.
So wait. Apparently, the wait is not long.