Old threats to the Russian economy
The oil issue made me speak again after Barack Obama and David Cameron had spoken about possible printing out reserves managed by the International Energy Agency. After the appearance of this kind of information, oil prices rushed down, but then returned to their usual lately marks. It is the high price for “black gold” that today negatively affects the plans of the current American president to remain in the White House for another 4 year. This is due to the fact that in the first months of 2012, due to the rising prices for oil, gasoline prices in the United States sharply jumped up, which also dragged up prices for most goods and services. For natural reasons, ordinary Americans remain unhappy with this state of affairs and more and more actively express their complaints about the financial policy of the current authorities. Against the background of civil discontent, Obama and stretched his hands to the cherished IEA egg pot with oil reserves. After all, if the oil "stabilization" fund is printed, it will cause the world market to be saturated with oil, the supply will exceed the demand for raw materials, and hence the prices for hydrocarbons will go down. For the United States and the European Union on the eve of the embargo on the importation of Iranian oil, the option is quite promising. But for Russia this option can obviously be considered problematic.
Today, thanks to high oil prices, the Russian budget is steadily filled with petrodollars and thus draws the Russian economy in iridescent colors. However, firstly, it is precisely what “draws”, and, secondly, it is worthwhile for oil to lose a quarter of its present value, which is predicted when IEA reserves are used up, as the Russian economy will even lose its luster. True, here it is necessary to make a reservation that even today this gloss is no more than an external impression. The fact that the deal with the Russian financial system in 2012 doesn’t go as well is confirmed by the results published by Russian and international analytical services. So in January of this year, GDP in Russia fell by 0,1%. It would seem that the January recession is quite understandable for our country, but the whole point is that the decline was recorded even without taking into account the 10-day New Year holidays. It turns out that the production process has lost momentum obtained in 2011 year, even with solid prices for hydrocarbons.
One would think that the 0,1% decline in the first month of the year should be perceived as a statistical error, but everything turned out to be much more serious. The decline was also recorded in February. If we extrapolate the data for the whole year, it turns out that the growth of the economy according to the results of 2012 will be no more than 3,9%, which is 0,4% lower than last year. We remind you that with the active growth of oil prices, which looks completely strange to Russia. After all, the price rise of oil has always dragged the domestic economy up, but, as it turned out, not in this case. It turns out that, unfortunately, one cannot expect anything iridescent from the Russian economy even under the scenarios of active demand for “black gold”, and even more so nothing good can be expected if Obama does get to the oil storerooms.
What is the cause of the problems in the Russian economy in 2012? If you do not talk about the formal approach to the financial system, when success in one direction is issued for total financial positive, then it is worth noting that the outflow of capital from our country has only recently grown. It is the same as to put the revenues bit by bit into a large safe box, in the back wall of which someone punched a big hole and simply steals money through it. The outflow of capital in 2011 from Russia amounted to about 84 billions of dollars (more than two annual budgets of a city like Moscow), and this year, obviously, will also be considerable. It is necessary to clarify that 84 billion dollars are only officially recorded figures, which can be represented only as the tip of the iceberg.
At the same time, the Central Bank of Russia predicts just a cardinal decline in the outflow of finances abroad - no more than 11 billions of dollars over 2012 a year. And this figure is by no means small, but unfortunately, it is hard to believe that the outflow will decrease by almost eight times.
It turns out simple arithmetic: the Russian economy in the wake of rising oil prices receives substantial inflows, but at the same time continues to descend down the steps. Theft of funds in our country has reached such a scale that even petrodollar replenishments cannot give the financial system sufficient impetus for sustained development. In this situation, the level of investment in the Russian financial system also decreases. Foreign investors, who previously feared too much administrative resources in the Russian Federation and pressure on business from government agencies, now add to their fears that the Russian markets are not transparent.
Not adding economic optimism for Russia is also Chinese statistics. At the end of February, the Celestial Empire recorded a record trade deficit, and this is also a step towards slowing the growth of the Chinese financial system. If we consider that the Chinese economy today is the second in the world, then this may pull the negative in other economies. The growing trade deficit in China will obviously lead to a decrease in demand for oil, which will force the exchange to lower the price of a barrel of “black gold”.
All of these components suggest that Russia may again have to launch a hand in its stabilization fund to keep the ruble exchange rate. After all, today the Russian currency, in fact, is tied to the oil swing, and if these swings reach a mark with the minimum potential energy, then the ruble will follow them.
The way out of such a peak suggests itself: to give up all forces in order to systematically reduce the outflow of capital from the country. Otherwise, even exorbitant oil prices, which, obviously, will not be forever exorbitant, will not save the Russian financial system from the failure of 2008 of the year.
And, it seems, the Russian special services, at last, have begun to work actively to prevent the outflow of funds abroad. It is reported that the FSB blocked the channel through which Russian capital went to European banks on a colossal scale. The channel used the activities of enterprises that managed to organize a corporate network of clearly criminal nature. It remains to hope that a real barrier will be built up for the work of those who use Russia only as a territory to start moving capital in the right direction for them.
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