The analytical program "However," with Mikhail Leontyev 13 March 2012
Humanity breathed a sigh of relief: after five months of torment, Greece was once again saved.
Greece will receive 130 billions of promised assistance. The condition for this was an agreement with creditors on debt restructuring, providing for the cancellation of its two-thirds in 105 billion euros. At the same time, Greece applied the so-called “norm of collective action”, when the consent of the majority of creditors is obligatory for all others. The rating agency "Moody's" rated it as a default.
That is, they have written off more 100 billions, and "Moody's" says: default. In fact, the forced cancellation of debt, even for a part of creditors, is the default. At the same time, servicing new debts is becoming more expensive. In fact, not even in this case. And the fact that all measures for the so-called "salvation" undermine all sorts of chances to pay on debts: Greece's economy is falling, not growing. And in general, this whole miserable upturn in Europe, as the analysis shows, relies only on colossal government injections. In fact, all so-called "rescue plans" are a way to pump money into the economy.
"On the strengthening of positive trends," says the report of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. Of course, the authors note, in the Eurozone, China and Brazil, the indicators are still below the long-term trend ... However, there are signals that the pace of deterioration is slowing.
So strained extrusion of optimism from itself, in general, in itself speaks volumes. However, there were signs that the pace of deterioration is worsening. And they appeared in the most unpleasant place - in China.
“The slowdown in China is much faster than the government expected,” analysts say. “Following the results of February, China recorded a record for all the time of observations and, most likely, for all history China's balance of payments deficit - 31,5 billion dollars. "The average forecast was 5-8 billion deficits. And for the worst case scenario, 23 was expected.
The reason for the shortage is the drop in demand for Chinese goods in Europe and America. What was required to prove: there is no demand - there is no way out of the crisis. If China loses its surplus, then who will buy American debt securities, let alone European ones? That is, we repeat, the question is not how to avoid landing, but when and how tough.
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