Military Review

This is the sweet word "dedollarization" ...

Representatives of the federal apparatus have recently quite actively declared that Russia literally has already risen, or at least is about to take the path of de-dollarization of the economy. As signs of a decline in the role of the US currency in the country's economy, agreements with China, some CIS countries, and preparation of agreements with India on mutual settlements in national currencies are cited.

One of the federal officials who announced publicly about the phase-out of the dollar was RF Economic Development Minister Maxim Oreshkin - the one who replaced Mr. Ulyukayev, who went to the dock. While in Kaliningrad, at a meeting on the development of the transport infrastructure of the North-West of the country, Maxim Oreshkin said in the presence of the president that “there is a big trend towards the de-dollarization of the economy.”

Oreshkina quoted RIA News:
The trend to increase the role of the ruble needs to be fully maintained and to withdraw, including from foreign currency loans, because we see currency risks, which can lead to.

This is the sweet word "dedollarization" ...

At the same meeting, the Russian president was already trying to find out why the transfer of service rates for companies engaged in loading and unloading operations (large ships) in Russian ports from dollars to rubles is still not carried out. We are talking about the so-called stevedore companies. Putin was convinced that January 1 supposedly moved things to a halt, and stevedoring companies would work on ruble rates, which would be another “nail in the coffin of the dollar.”

Citizens who are interested the news from the economic world and the issues of the possible independence of the Russian economic system, after the Kaliningrad statements they seriously decided that the dollar in Russia "is going to be difficult times." Someone ran to exchange the available dollars for rubles, someone who did not have dollars and did not have either in his wallet or in a bank account simply and quietly rejoiced at the prospect of a decrease in the level of currency dependence.

However, in the words of the minister, one oddity crept in It lies in the fact that the Minister literally 4 a month ago announced that the ruble exchange rate had fallen both with an increase and with a decrease in oil prices. In April, Maxim Oreshkin announced that, according to his forecast, the dollar rate against the ruble at the end of the year could reach 68 rubles, which would be associated, among other things, with low oil prices. Then many Russians, deprived of special reverence in relation to the ruble as, perhaps, a strong currency in the future, ran to buy dollars ... These are irresponsible citizens, you know ...

If we compare the Minister’s statements about the inevitable strengthening of the dollar with the words about a “big trend for dedollarization”, then either the Russian economy has not yet seen the trend, or the Minister Oreshkin decided to act as a catalyst for the exchange processes, with the goal that people run to the exchangers, changing the rubles for dollars, then dollars for rubles - for, if I may say so, banking activity.

So, if we assume that the projected depreciation of the ruble against the dollar is in no way connected with the predicted dedollarization, then it is worth considering whether there is that “big trend” or not.

It can be assumed that from January 1 in ports the work of the mentioned stevedoring companies will be transferred to the ruble plane, unless, of course, it happens as with the execution of certain May presidential decrees, when it is time to talk about sabotage by individual “artists” or the initial impossibility of their implementation .

Taking one step, the state will need to do the other.

While we are thinking about how he, this step, will be, involuntarily comes to mind another series of investments of state funds in American debt securities - in fact, with the simultaneous support of the American national currency. At the same time, the Reserve Fund, which, frankly, not a lot, was replenished, according to the reports of the Ministry of Finance from July 1 to August 1 by about 200 million dollars. That is, in July, purchased the US currency. Now the Reserve Fund does not exceed 1,1% of GDP - 16,91 billion dollars (1 trillion rubles). And the main question: did those tens of billions of dollars (even in dollars, even in rubles) really go to infrastructure projects? Or do these same projects with us are implemented with a significant participation of foreign lending, and the reserve funds go to pay off debts to all those to whom we have forgiven the debts? Well, the same Bosnia and Herzegovina, for example ...

In this connection, the only, perhaps, sphere where de-dollarization in the Russian economy is really not just possible, but also “vital” necessary now, is the sphere of crediting. If you continue to lend in dollars under existing conditions, then the growth of the economy can be forgotten in principle. Any growth will be devoured by interest rates and a rising rate. And if the rate continues to grow at a rate that Maxim Oreshkin announced at the end of the year, then dollar loans will simply be finished off.
Another issue is that ruble loans in Russia, despite reports from the Central Bank of the Russian Federation on a significant reduction in inflation (forecast: around 4% for the year), remain extremely expensive. If an industrial enterprise is credited for real 10-12% per annum, or even higher, then it is necessary that either growth overlaps this rate (and this is utopia), or such production, which would come to an acceptable profit after paying off the loan. That's just not every business is up to the end of the loan repayment ...

There is only one conclusion: the real de-dollarization of the economy is an objective necessity for Russia, if it does not want to remain dependent. But on today's part of the road, to achieve complete dedollarization, as Ilyich used to say, is daunting. And even completely impossible. There is an alternative to dedollarization - the development of the economy with the stimulation of domestic demand, the gasification of regions, the construction of roads, the increase in the efficiency of the use of seaports, the attraction of domestic investment without waiting for the next “browsers” as investors- “saviors”.

Here, however, there is one nuance - the implementation of all these projects must be kept under total control, but with control, to put it mildly, not everything is in order. If, according to Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Rogozin, the Vostochny space center alone is “inefficiently spent” up to a quarter of all allocated funds, how to be on a nationwide scale? Who will answer, who will return? .. In general, again "who is to blame and what to do?"

In other words, without ensuring the rule of law, control and order now, and de-dollarization, and economic growth adequate to the possibilities of the Russian Federation, not only our generation, but also the generation of our children cannot wait ... Despite all the forecasts and assurances of federal ministers.
Photos used:

Subscribe to our Telegram channel, regularly additional information about the special operation in Ukraine, a large amount of information, videos, something that does not fall on the site:

Dear reader, to leave comments on the publication, you must sign in.
  1. vanavatny
    vanavatny 23 August 2017 15: 12
    and how this Oreshkin will drag out the amount received by his predecessor, if it is in rubles: it’s physically difficult ... I feel the slogan is not the first freshness, but as a Russian and a Russian I continue to hope for a miracle. and about Nabiulina: they lifted bets and now each decline is presented as its huge victory
    1. twviewer
      twviewer 23 August 2017 16: 29
      while the ruble exchange rate depends on the whims of speculators and the Central Bank, while capital flows uncontrollably across the border, while the financial system of one-contour and the Central Bank pumps parasites with finances, dedollarization does not bring anything good for the population, speculators have room for creativity, so Oreshkin makes seemingly mutually exclusive statements .
      1. oldseaman1957
        oldseaman1957 23 August 2017 18: 02
        Quote: twviewer
        while the ruble depends on the whims of speculators and the Central Bank,
        - Our ruble is the most volatile currency in the world (fact!). And until those who made it like that, in FIG, "dedollarization" are pressed against the nail!
        1. ADmA_RUS
          ADmA_RUS 24 August 2017 08: 42
          Where is the fact? I have your opinion.
      2. Nikolay K
        Nikolay K 23 August 2017 18: 43
        All this is empty talk. There is no and will not be dedollarization while our most important officials keep their accounts in offshore. For real dedollarization it is necessary:
        1. To abandon the floating ruble exchange rate by tying it to a basket of currencies.
        2. Prohibit the circulation of cash foreign currency in the country (leave only foreign currency accounts).
        3. Introduce the mandatory sale of currency by legal entities within three months.
        4: Introduce a tax on the purchase of foreign currency in the amount of 3-5% to make short currency speculations unattractive.
        5. Introduce the mandatory declaration of all accounts in foreign banks, shares in non-public companies and trusts. For failure to provide information, confiscation of assets.
        6. Refuse from holding reserves in African bonds. Form foreign exchange reserves based on the share of currencies in the basket.
        1. Kenxnumx
          Kenxnumx 23 August 2017 19: 01
          All would forbid you. But in fact, the ruble will be stable and attractive and the dollar will not be needed. And so will the black market. By the way, for trips abroad how to buy. Or forbid too.
   23 August 2017 23: 47
            Nothing to do abroad these days! Rest and work in the Russian Federation.
          2. Nikolay K
            Nikolay K 24 August 2017 09: 54
            . And so will the black market

            The black market appears when it is impossible to buy officially. Refusal of a floating rate does not introduce any restrictions on the purchase and sale of currency. Why buy it from under the floor when you can buy officially. But taking into account item 2 only by bank transfer. For those who want to play it safe this is not important. But such will be less and less, provided the stability of the national currency and the commission for the purchase of a foreign one. As a result, keeping money in foreign currency will simply be UNFAVORABLE and people themselves will refuse it.
        2. ADmA_RUS
          ADmA_RUS 24 August 2017 08: 43
          Point 6. Particularly beautiful. Lord, how are you getting so good. He proposed a solution for the implementation of at least paragraph 6.
          1. Nikolay K
            Nikolay K 24 August 2017 10: 17
            I suggest. As you know, selling government bonds is not technically a problem. The question is where to get the received currency. Attachment Options:
            1. Refinancing of foreign currency loans of our business. We lend to the Fed at 2-3% per annum, while our companies are then credited in the West at 6-9%. We create a fund and lend our own. As you know, this is much more profitable.
            2. Expanding export support through export agencies. For example, a state export agency provides financing to a leasing company that leases our superjets at 3% per annum. This is an additional incentive for their sale (otherwise they won’t buy it at all). As a result, the state retains interest income and increases production and taxes in its country.
            3 Investments in shares of large Western companies, the acquisition of strategically important enterprises in third world countries, during certain periods of investment in commodities.
            4. The released voyuut should be sent for the purchase of equipment to create real import-substituting or export-oriented production.

            You must also understand that a fixed rate will allow you to keep less foreign exchange reserves, because The volatility of the ruble will decrease, it will simply not be interesting to speculators. The course will be influenced by long-term factors, primarily the trade balance.
            1. ADmA_RUS
              ADmA_RUS 24 August 2017 15: 53
              Nikolay, you have some basic mistakes.
              1. How are you going to fix the course? How many reserves do we have to fix it? Read how much China burned reserves so that the yuan did not collapse.
              2. Debt refunding of private companies. And why is this? Private debts, but should the state pay?
              3. Stocks of Western companies are empty pieces of paper. Any normal economist will tell you they are overrated, often an order of magnitude. And besides, this will help the financial system of the West.
              4. Export costs. What is Russia exporting now. Oil and gas. Help them? Food, want an increase in the cost of food domestically? Armament. So here purely economic instruments do not work? Who needs help? How much will it pay off?
              5. Equipment, what to do with it? Who will work on it? Do we have so many specialists? What to produce? To whom and for how much then to sell? Any answers?
              Are you definitely not a pest?
              1. your1970
                your1970 27 August 2017 11: 17
                And such nuances are the abyss. Woeful couch experts are ready in 6 moves to solve the global economic problems of not only the Russian Federation but also other countries interconnected with the Russian Federation
        3. alekc73
          alekc73 24 August 2017 18: 22
          You correctly understand all these statements are clumsy. Everything will remain as it is.
      3. aybolyt678
        aybolyt678 23 August 2017 21: 44
        Quote: twviewer
        therefore, Oreshkin makes seemingly mutually exclusive statements

        Oreshkin does not make mutually exclusive statements. He says that ruble inflation. Those. the ruble will become cheaper. Those on the ruble can buy less dollars. Less phones, Chinese consumer goods, etc. Therefore, you have to do it yourself, at least something. True, Oreshkin refers to oil quotes, but I would like to believe that at least someone thinks about production.
      4. Sling cutter
        Sling cutter 23 August 2017 23: 51
        Quote: twviewer
        while the ruble depends on the whims of speculators and the Central Bank

        What is characteristic, the Central Bank is the main speculator!
        1. Stas157
          Stas157 24 August 2017 07: 06
          Quote: Stroporez
          What is characteristic, the Central Bank is the main speculator!

          And how? As far as I know, the Central Bank is not a commercial organization, and does not conduct commercial transactions. Accordingly, the Central Bank has no profit. So do not consider it.
          1. Sling cutter
            Sling cutter 24 August 2017 07: 20
            Quote: Stas157
            And how?

            Consider the 2014th year. If it’s short and on the fingers, the Central Bank issued steering loans to the affiliated banks, they began to buy foreign currency, the ruble collapsed, they bought rubles for the currency, and this is 2 times welding.
            Katasonov will better explain to you)))
            1. Same lech
              Same lech 24 August 2017 07: 26
              The Central Bank issued steering loans to the affiliated banks, they began to buy up the currency, the ruble collapsed, they bought rubles for the currency, and that's 2 times welding.

              Vague doubts torment me that the Central Bank, with the consent of the government, will more than once throw ordinary citizens in this way with their accumulations in the pipe.
              1. Sling cutter
                Sling cutter 24 August 2017 07: 34
                Kaneshno will throw. yes That's why naibulin is in place. And the president says that the Central Bank is working super-duper.
                The Central Bank is enough to merge Old insiders about foreign exchange interventions and everything is in chocolate, acre of the people.
                but for us, "no denehh, but you hang on there" ..
                Then I found the Old again, you can mint.
                In 2015, Gasgas claims that he sold gas in FeREG for 9 lard, and FeREG declares a purchase for 27 lard !!! belay
                Where else is 18 ????
        2. aybolyt678
          aybolyt678 24 August 2017 07: 26
          Naturally, on the difference in rates, they have a contract in any way with bankers, are they fools? because all the same, at the expense of the people, the well-being of the Banking system is being drained
  2. BNVSurgut
    BNVSurgut 23 August 2017 15: 26
    Or maybe this is not "dedollarization", but the concentration of the currency in the right hands, with the restriction of the unnecessary. And then the state will decide for itself - to whom it is beneficial, and to whom - not.
  3. afrikanez
    afrikanez 23 August 2017 15: 28
    Interestingly, representatives of the federal apparatus keep money in banks in rubles? Most probably not. Then what kind of dedollarization can we talk about. They make a fool of the people. It would be better to have figured out how best to help Russian industry with the ruble rather than the dollar. And you just hear about dollar loans ...
    1. aybolyt678
      aybolyt678 23 August 2017 21: 54
      Quote: afrikanez
      They make a fool of the people. It would be better to have figured out how best to help Russian industry with the ruble rather than the dollar

      only in dollars and Russian industry can be helped. But not only in the form of a loan, but in the form of high-tech equipment for the production of means of production of high-tech goods. For example, equipment for the production of automated lines for assembling telephones, automobiles, in short, machine tools for the production of machine tools. At the same time, it is necessary for some industry to be a cut above the best in the world. At the same time, I myself propose making 3D printers, consumables, and printheads for them. The Soviet Union, for example, had genetic engineering. If anyone forgot in the 90s, genetics fled along with nuclear scientists.
  4. Basil50
    Basil50 23 August 2017 16: 28
    It is high time to introduce PERSONAL RESPONSIBILITY, including for economic failures.
    Engineers are responsible, drivers are literally responsible for everything, up to the condition of roads, the military are responsible and everyone who does at least something is responsible. In RUSSIA, prosecutor judges, economists and legislators are irresponsible together with the government. So until they introduce responsibility to confiscate and confiscate nothing, nothing will change.
    1. 34 region
      34 region 23 August 2017 18: 23
      16.28. Vasiliy! Good idea! Let it be like in a store with sellers! They make up for the shortage from their salary. They stole the budget by 25%, so let them cover the property of their clan! And then half as it turns out. Theft is detected regularly. What about refunds? Enterprise bankrupt, director of a millionaire! The region is depressed, a guide in chocolate! Why do citizens have property confiscation for fines and loans under the law, but they don’t?
      1. Moryarty
        Moryarty 24 August 2017 22: 40
        Why do citizens have confiscation of property for debts on fines and loans under the law, but they don’t

        Who will introduce such laws against themselves?)
    2. your1970
      your1970 27 August 2017 11: 25
      Blah blah blah....
      If we have the equality of citizens before the law, it means that responsibility must be equal ... Many military men know who for pronounced MILITARY operations '' up to confiscation and execution '' ????
  5. Cotnik
    Cotnik 23 August 2017 16: 35
    m-ru Oreshkin always something is missing then the dallars then rubles .... So it declares this about that about the other. ... while in the power of silt there is even at least one liberalist nearby = cultural Petersburger. It is unlikely that something sensible will happen.
  6. sapporo1959
    sapporo1959 23 August 2017 16: 51
    Does de-dollarization come soon? It seems that we have the government and do it not hell, as soon as any nonsense voiced at 60 rubles per dollar? Here's the opposite ...
  7. Altona
    Altona 23 August 2017 17: 31

    While this is happening in our country, “dedollarization” is the next mantra of those in power as the “digital economy”, “modernization”, and “innovation”.
    1. Kenxnumx
      Kenxnumx 23 August 2017 19: 03
      Specify what laws were violated by those about whom you brought the article.
    2. aybolyt678
      aybolyt678 23 August 2017 21: 57
      Quote: Altona
      While this is happening in our country, “dedollarization” is the next mantra of those in power as the “digital economy”, “modernization”, and “innovation”.

      ONANOTEStechnologies forgotten
  8. Altona
    Altona 23 August 2017 19: 05
    Quote: Ken71
    Specify what laws were violated by those about whom you brought the article.

    At least "tax evasion." For example, our statistics record 9 billion trade with Germany, and WTO-27 statistics. Where is the money, Zin?
  9. Megamarcel
    Megamarcel 23 August 2017 21: 24
    One thing is needed for dedolarization. Political will. If we already have a vertical, then let the main vertical official make a decision and follow it. Otherwise, why talk?
    1. aybolyt678
      aybolyt678 23 August 2017 22: 07
      Dedollarization is impossible due to the lack of political Will from Below. If all citizens suddenly refuse from foreign cars, trips to Turkey, they will try to buy only Russian - de-dollarization will come immediately. laughing
      1. 23 August 2017 23: 56
        I'm ready, and you?
        1. aybolyt678
          aybolyt678 24 August 2017 07: 31
          I'm ready, and you?

          I have been living this way since 2009. In principle, everything with my wife we ​​find Russian, except for perfumes, and cell.
  10. samarin1969
    samarin1969 23 August 2017 21: 48
    Dedollarization in the "RF" ???! ... Perhaps it is more realistic to close all the mosques in Sudan Arabia .... "Trend" according to Oreshkin, this is just a slogan with an efficiency below the statistical error. ... What is needed are really restrictive measures, primarily for lending and settlements in dollars.
  11. Klaus
    Klaus 23 August 2017 23: 45
    The de-dollarization process meets the requirement of the Civil Code of the Russian Federation (Article 140) that only the Russian ruble can be the only means of payment throughout the Russian Federation. To do this, you must first reasonably limit internal convertibility, bearing in mind the system of currency exchanges, authorized banks, exchange offices, and currency deposits. Then, the rights of commercial banks to form foreign exchange reserves and keep them abroad should be limited, which at the same time will prevent the outflow of capital. It is necessary to level the influx of foreign investment in the securities market (portfolio investment) by stimulating the investment activity of domestic capital and legislatively establishing the share of the safe presence of non-residents in the ruble debt market. It is required to create a mechanism for higher incentives for saving the population of the Russian Federation in rubles as compared to dollar savings by means of an increased percentage. But the basis for the implementation of these measures is the only one - the development of the real sector of the economy[i] [/ i] (
    In general, Oreshkin set out the vision of the egg not in front, but in profile.
    1. aybolyt678
      aybolyt678 24 August 2017 10: 26
      but it doesn’t seem strange to anyone what to buy abroad is always cheaper than producing at home ??? I believe that the system of currency quotes is vicious. If we make the dollar exchange rate so that everything is decidedly produced by us, then this will be Dedollarization
  12. aybolyt678
    aybolyt678 24 August 2017 10: 28
    Quote: Klaus
    In general, Oreshkin set out the vision of the egg not in front, but in profile.

    but it doesn’t seem strange to anyone what to buy abroad is always cheaper than producing at home ??? I believe that the system of currency quotes is vicious. If we make the dollar exchange rate so that everything is decidedly produced by us, then this will be Dedollarization.
    1. Klaus
      Klaus 24 August 2017 17: 19
      Not so simple.
      In fact, buying good tea, coffee or bananas is cheaper and more profitable than producing at home. Of course, maybe there are fans of Georgian tea and Abkhazian tangerines somewhere, but this is very much for everyone)))
      How are you going to “make” the dollar? In order for everything to be done with us, we must start everything from scratch: machine tool building and machine building in the first place. And without the purchase of imported equipment this is impossible, because the same CNC machine from ... mna and sticks is impossible to mold.
      1. aybolyt678
        aybolyt678 25 August 2017 20: 18
        Quote: Klaus
        How are you going to “make” the dollar?

        Quote: Klaus
        How are you going to “make” the dollar? In order for everything to be done with us, we must start everything from scratch: machine tool building and machine building in the first place. And without the purchase of imported equipment it is impossible

        My comments in this article have a similar thought. However ... to start from scratch, you need this start to be profitable at the exit. Otherwise it will be Conchalo. AvtoVAZ example. No matter how much production is created at the exit, it is always more expensive than buying abroad, even protective duties do not save. The exchange rate is artificial, it is not formed at the market, it is formed by banking manipulations. How are you with the understanding of Marx ??
  13. olimpiada15
    olimpiada15 24 August 2017 16: 26
    I wonder what meaning Oreshkin puts into this term? Our economists studied on the recommendations of the United States, and giving up the dollar is impossible for them.
    In general, when you constantly hear that the ruble is overvalued, when the ruble depreciates due to oil reserves in the USA, an increase in the number of unemployed in the USA, due to an increase in the limit of the US government debt, the thought involuntarily arises: why do we need a fortune-telling ministry? Maybe this mayor, and the office with Kudrin, in addition, will be cut, considerable money will be saved, and if they make a couple of calls to the United States, they know exactly what the ruble expects in the fall, winter, next year.
    Well, neither the MED and the Central Bank taught how to get rid of the dependence of the national economy on the dollar, they do not understand that a country can have a stable developing economy, that GDP can grow from an increase in production and purchasing power of the population, and not from price increases. And inflation, according to which indexation of household incomes should go, should be considered according to the consumer basket, in the consumer basket it is necessary to take into account food products not by the number of bones that can be bought, but by the amount of meat that a person eats. And also, imposing on the population the obligation to maintain a bunch of offices from the housing and communal services, which have grown visibly and invisibly, do not forget to include these expenses in the consumer basket, because you can’t pay, you can stay without housing. And without capital housing in the Russian climate can not survive. Well, we don’t have such a climate where you can go in shorts all year round, live in a hut and bask in the fire. We have many places where, in order not to freeze, we need to mop up 0,5 m3 of firewood per night. I think they don’t know about all this., Subjugating the Statistical Office.
  14. Moryarty
    Moryarty 24 August 2017 16: 57
    First you need to raise the economy, as they did in the PRC ... Only then do you have to think about dedollarization.
  15. mac789
    mac789 24 August 2017 23: 47
    Dedollarization ... Damn ... Economics ... That the Soviet Union had a rather de-dollarized economy ... Collapsed however ... Defense spending was called one of the main reasons for the collapse ... They say that too much of the Gross Domestic Product went to defense ... Excellent !!! And now attention Question !!! What percentage of Russian GDP goes to corrupt officials? Selling deputies? The oligarchs? Other traitors?
  16. iouris
    iouris 25 August 2017 23: 51
    At this age, men very sharply have completely different questions. A strange destination. Without compromising information on this little fellow you will not make out what the essence of this "deadall ..." is. Ugh, you can’t even pronounce it!