One of the federal officials who announced publicly about the phase-out of the dollar was RF Economic Development Minister Maxim Oreshkin - the one who replaced Mr. Ulyukayev, who went to the dock. While in Kaliningrad, at a meeting on the development of the transport infrastructure of the North-West of the country, Maxim Oreshkin said in the presence of the president that “there is a big trend towards the de-dollarization of the economy.”
Oreshkina quoted RIA News:
The trend to increase the role of the ruble needs to be fully maintained and to withdraw, including from foreign currency loans, because we see currency risks, which can lead to.
At the same meeting, the Russian president was already trying to find out why the transfer of service rates for companies engaged in loading and unloading operations (large ships) in Russian ports from dollars to rubles is still not carried out. We are talking about the so-called stevedore companies. Putin was convinced that January 1 supposedly moved things to a halt, and stevedoring companies would work on ruble rates, which would be another “nail in the coffin of the dollar.”
Citizens who are interested the news from the economic world and the issues of the possible independence of the Russian economic system, after the Kaliningrad statements they seriously decided that the dollar in Russia "is going to be difficult times." Someone ran to exchange the available dollars for rubles, someone who did not have dollars and did not have either in his wallet or in a bank account simply and quietly rejoiced at the prospect of a decrease in the level of currency dependence.
However, in the words of the minister, one oddity crept in It lies in the fact that the Minister literally 4 a month ago announced that the ruble exchange rate had fallen both with an increase and with a decrease in oil prices. In April, Maxim Oreshkin announced that, according to his forecast, the dollar rate against the ruble at the end of the year could reach 68 rubles, which would be associated, among other things, with low oil prices. Then many Russians, deprived of special reverence in relation to the ruble as, perhaps, a strong currency in the future, ran to buy dollars ... These are irresponsible citizens, you know ...
If we compare the Minister’s statements about the inevitable strengthening of the dollar with the words about a “big trend for dedollarization”, then either the Russian economy has not yet seen the trend, or the Minister Oreshkin decided to act as a catalyst for the exchange processes, with the goal that people run to the exchangers, changing the rubles for dollars, then dollars for rubles - for, if I may say so, banking activity.
So, if we assume that the projected depreciation of the ruble against the dollar is in no way connected with the predicted dedollarization, then it is worth considering whether there is that “big trend” or not.
It can be assumed that from January 1 in ports the work of the mentioned stevedoring companies will be transferred to the ruble plane, unless, of course, it happens as with the execution of certain May presidential decrees, when it is time to talk about sabotage by individual “artists” or the initial impossibility of their implementation .
Taking one step, the state will need to do the other.
While we are thinking about how he, this step, will be, involuntarily comes to mind another series of investments of state funds in American debt securities - in fact, with the simultaneous support of the American national currency. At the same time, the Reserve Fund, which, frankly, not a lot, was replenished, according to the reports of the Ministry of Finance from July 1 to August 1 by about 200 million dollars. That is, in July, purchased the US currency. Now the Reserve Fund does not exceed 1,1% of GDP - 16,91 billion dollars (1 trillion rubles). And the main question: did those tens of billions of dollars (even in dollars, even in rubles) really go to infrastructure projects? Or do these same projects with us are implemented with a significant participation of foreign lending, and the reserve funds go to pay off debts to all those to whom we have forgiven the debts? Well, the same Bosnia and Herzegovina, for example ...
In this connection, the only, perhaps, sphere where de-dollarization in the Russian economy is really not just possible, but also “vital” necessary now, is the sphere of crediting. If you continue to lend in dollars under existing conditions, then the growth of the economy can be forgotten in principle. Any growth will be devoured by interest rates and a rising rate. And if the rate continues to grow at a rate that Maxim Oreshkin announced at the end of the year, then dollar loans will simply be finished off.
Another issue is that ruble loans in Russia, despite reports from the Central Bank of the Russian Federation on a significant reduction in inflation (forecast: around 4% for the year), remain extremely expensive. If an industrial enterprise is credited for real 10-12% per annum, or even higher, then it is necessary that either growth overlaps this rate (and this is utopia), or such production, which would come to an acceptable profit after paying off the loan. That's just not every business is up to the end of the loan repayment ...
There is only one conclusion: the real de-dollarization of the economy is an objective necessity for Russia, if it does not want to remain dependent. But on today's part of the road, to achieve complete dedollarization, as Ilyich used to say, is daunting. And even completely impossible. There is an alternative to dedollarization - the development of the economy with the stimulation of domestic demand, the gasification of regions, the construction of roads, the increase in the efficiency of the use of seaports, the attraction of domestic investment without waiting for the next “browsers” as investors- “saviors”.
Here, however, there is one nuance - the implementation of all these projects must be kept under total control, but with control, to put it mildly, not everything is in order. If, according to Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Rogozin, the Vostochny space center alone is “inefficiently spent” up to a quarter of all allocated funds, how to be on a nationwide scale? Who will answer, who will return? .. In general, again "who is to blame and what to do?"
In other words, without ensuring the rule of law, control and order now, and de-dollarization, and economic growth adequate to the possibilities of the Russian Federation, not only our generation, but also the generation of our children cannot wait ... Despite all the forecasts and assurances of federal ministers.