Military Review

TAPI, or How to turn Afghanistan into a gas transit state?

While the attention of millions was riveted on a straight line with Russian President Vladimir Putin, other events took place in the world ... Attention attracted several such events related to such a region as Central Asia on the eve. Given the fact that it would be strange to push the region beyond the interests of the leading world powers, it is difficult to leave the Central Asian events of the last days unlighted.

One of such events is connected with the expressed interest of official Tashkent (Uzbekistan) in participating in the creation of a gas pipeline through which Turkmen gas will flow to India. For obvious reasons, the project in question is causing huge interest from both India and Turkmenistan. India, as a rapidly growing economy, needs to increase the volume of purchased relatively inexpensive energy. In turn, official Ashgabat is interested in investing in the gas industry, which brings substantial funds to the state budget for the country. The interest of Uzbekistan, which does not want to miss the opportunity to become a participant in the project that promises huge profits, is also clear.

In this regard, the question could arise: if the project is so promising, then why does the very same Uzbekistan show interest in it only now? There are at least two answers here. The first lies in the plane of safety. The second is in the geopolitical changes in southern Asia.

The fact is that the gas transmission project under discussion is the so-called TAPI (after the first letters of the names of the states that initially made the decision on possible construction: Turkmenistan, Afghanistan, Pakistan, India). You do not need supernatural intuition to figure out why security issues may arise during the project implementation ... At least one link in this chain looks weak. And this is Afghanistan.

For reference: the TAPI gas pipeline in planning documents has a length of more than 1,7 thousand km. The approximate cost of the project is about 8 billion dollars. Predicted capacity - 33 billion cubic meters of gas per year. Such capacity should be provided by the largest Turkmen gas field Galkynysh (Galkynyş), located in the Mary region (Mary province). According to international expert groups, Galkynysh has impressive reserves of not only gas (more than 21 trillion cubic meters), but also oil (no less than 300 million tons). The field has already been exploited over the past few years, but Ashgabat wants to use it to the full.

The first stone in the construction of TAPI was solemnly laid in the Turkmen Mary 13 December 2015. Beyond the first stone and work in the Turkmen territory, the process has not progressed much. And the same India would have invested a hundred percent in the project long ago, if it were not for the fact that, first, the gas pipe needs to be “pulled” through Herat and Kandahar, where the official Afghan authorities hardly control the territory even during the day Secondly, about 800 km of the route must go through Pakistan, with which New Delhi has, to put it mildly, uneasy relations.

So why, if the security is “not so simple”, they talked about TAPI again? The fact is that at the recent SCO summit, India and Pakistan were included in the list of countries participating in the organization of cooperation. And if India and Pakistan agreed to join the organization, then cooperation, too, would like to establish, despite territorial claims.

TAPI, or How to turn Afghanistan into a gas transit state?

However, there is still a headache in the form of Afghanistan. And it's not just that you have to go around the mountain ranges. The main problem is complete terrorist lawlessness in this state, which, in the presence of the American military contingent, is clearly not going to stop.

That is why I want, and prickly. The same Uzbekistan, on the one hand, clearly does not want to stay away from the profitable project, on the other hand, the risks are great.

From the statement of the chairman of the board of holding "Uzbekneftegaz" Alisher Sultanov:
The Turkmen side has made us an offer to take part in TAPI. In turn, the President of Uzbekistan ordered the company to work on this issue. However, I specify - now there is no official statement about the entry of Uzbekistan into the TAPI project or about our participation in it.

Tashkent does not hide the fact that it is ready to participate in the project if Ashgabat finds the operator who will take responsibility for the construction of the gas pipeline throughout its length. The whole question is, who can become such an operator who can not only build pipelines of impressive length, but also level down threats during construction.

And then, as if by chance, again in the Central Asian media passed news that Turkmenistan is interested in the passage of TAPI branches not only to the south, but also to the north - to Kazakhstan and Russia. Does this mean that Russia is already making a proposal for the implementation of how profitable, and so risky a project with a large-scale economic entry into the region?

In this regard, it can be assumed that if the project is continued, it will be only on the basis of agreements that could interest the parties to the Afghan conflict. The fact that the West has recently accused Russia of allegedly having contacts with the Taliban (banned in the Russian Federation) is often reported by the media. It’s only for the West that “it is possible” to contact those whom it deems necessary, in their own interests ...

And here it must be stated that Moscow has recently gained substantial experience in the diplomacy that allows negotiating with even those with whom it seems at first glance impossible. As an example, the use of contacts with Turkey and Iran for the cessation of hostilities by the so-called armed opposition in Syria. But one can hardly expect that one “exceptional” overseas power would like all of this, especially considering that the “exceptional” power may well be confronted with the fact - as they put before the fact in the north of Iraq with the Kurdish pipeline to Turkey and the invitation to the Rosneft project.

Is Russia eager to become a member of the TAPI project? - a separate question, the answer to which can be expressed only in the format of assumptions. But the assumption is: it is quite possible that Moscow may even think about participation in the project, taking into account at least the fact that the oil pipeline in the far from the most peaceful North Iraq still managed to interest Russia. However, there, with the Turkish direction, there is still a greater geopolitical interest, and here - Russia has less risky ways to maintain interstate (including economic) relations, if we are talking only about financial returns. It is, of course, quite humanitarian to bury the belligerents for the sake of building gas pipelines, but the main thing here is not to overdo it.

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  1. Strashila
    Strashila 16 June 2017 06: 25
    Because of the gas pipeline project, a war has been going on for a decade, so stubbornly sponsored by Arab sheikhs.
    1. siberalt
      siberalt 16 June 2017 08: 58
      Gas dumb to transport through the same Ukraine, but then decided through Afghanistan? belay Oh well.
      1. Strashila
        Strashila 16 June 2017 18: 48
        Well, it began ... back in the 70s of the last century, during the Soviet era ... then the alignment was different.
    2. RASKAT
      RASKAT 16 June 2017 12: 49
      And how will Iran and the Saudis react to this? Where will Turkmenistan take pipes and an engine for pumping? Somehow all this is too spontaneous.
      1. antivirus
        antivirus 16 June 2017 14: 50
        in India, the customer of the project.
        old aircraft engines will go
      2. cost
        cost 16 June 2017 17: 22
        Where will Turkmenistan take pipes and an engine for pumping?

        Will buy. Turkmenistan, by the way, is one of the richest post-Soviet republics. Turkmenistan is the 4th largest natural gas reserves in the world. It has the second largest gas field in the world. Since 1993, Turkmenistan has had limits on free electricity, salt, water use and gas consumption, which have no analogues all over the world. Turkmenistan has a large network of gas pipelines. Currently, the Caspian gas pipeline and Central Asia Center gas pipelines are operating. In 2009, the Turkmenistan-China gas pipeline was commissioned, and in 2010, the Turkmenistan-Iran gas pipeline. Turkmenistan is actively involved in promoting the construction of the Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India (TAPI) and Nabucco gas pipelines.
        1. art030765
          art030765 16 June 2017 22: 48
          Rich about Turkmenistan, not a word is the antithesis of modern Russia; this is an example of how to deal with national wealth, so don't hurt our souls; media about Turkmenistan not a word if you make a report about this country, believe the Russians will be shocked that everyone will understand that we are ruled by the wrong people and how we were divorced as last suckers
          1. Basarev
            Basarev 18 June 2017 13: 58
            Everything will go smoothly with Afghanistan. Feeding on gas, peasants will lose interest in drugs that are so annoying to the Taliban. And if the nascent cooperation between the Taliban and Russia is true, then there is the prospect of creating a protectorate.
  2. Niccola Mack
    Niccola Mack 16 June 2017 06: 28
    These are all far-away dreams, it is more realistic for India to receive gas from Russia through China.
    The fact that the West has recently accused Russia of allegedly contacts with the Taliban (banned in the Russian Federation) is often reported by the media. Well, only the West can "contact" with those whom it considers necessary, in their interests ...

    It may very well be that when we try to lay the pipeline, our contacts with the "Afghan opposition" will come to life sharply - it’s not very interesting for us when they sell gas without Gazprom !!!
    1. Out
      Out 16 June 2017 13: 08
      Quote: Nikkola Mac
      These are all far-away dreams, it is more realistic for India to receive gas from Russia through China.

      Yeah, really damn real, you saw a map at least, or where the Russian gas pipeline passes and where it leads.
      1. Niccola Mack
        Niccola Mack 16 June 2017 13: 22
        Yeah, really damn real

        Can you try to negotiate with the Taliban? Or have India dramatically improved relations with Pakistan?
        While you agree, just the gas on Earth will end laughing !
        1. antivirus
          antivirus 16 June 2017 14: 51
          chatter - tease the EU and silence them
        2. art030765
          art030765 16 June 2017 22: 51
          Nicola in China is already developing gas fields which, according to conservative estimates, will last for 1000 years
  3. 34 region
    34 region 16 June 2017 07: 25
    Sell ​​gas without an overseas power? And who will provide retarded miners with modern technology? I’m afraid the miners will soon see something colored and the regime becomes inhuman. And who else can build a gas pipeline? Russia? But something is wrapping us up in the West, and China also seems to be turning away from our gas. And Gazprom incurs losses. So at whose expense will the banquet be? And will it be? Yes, and the Empire of Goodness will probably come in hand and will offer to buy gas from their good companies. But they will not agree, so the opposition will appear, popularly explaining by cutting heads. The presence of amercous troops on the territory of Afghanistan is the supervision of convicts so that they do not take up their minds and begin to live peacefully and boost the economy. But if an Afghan company will serve the Afghan pipe, the pipe can and will work without damage. And if not disgusting? Rather, it will not live long. In general, elf politics is understandable. Surround as many regions as possible with a ring of fire and drive them into the Stone Age. hi
    1. NKT
      NKT 16 June 2017 12: 52
      "Retarded miners" have already mastered hydraulic fracturing, including multi-stage fracturing, but there the reservoir gives good flow rates even without hydraulic fracturing
      1. 34 region
        34 region 16 June 2017 17: 50
        12.52.NKT! While they are engaged in small business (by world standards). When asked a lot of money they are wrapped. If Russia is pointed to a place, then what can we say about the small fry. There will be a Libyan script. The future of the emirates does not shine for them. Emirates is certainly a good bait. That's how you can live well on oil! But for some reason other neighboring countries live somewhat differently in wars.
  4. vlad007
    vlad007 16 June 2017 07: 52
    This pipeline will be a headache for the rest of my life, and the main country will receive the money from which they pump - Turkmenistan.
  5. Sergey-8848
    Sergey-8848 16 June 2017 08: 06
    TAPI is a tribe from the 1961 film by Eldar Ryazanov "The Man from Nowhere". The tribe is wild, and found by the hero of Yuri Yakovlev in about the same places. There, with only one savage from this tribe (Sergei Jurassic), the trouble was full of mouth. What can we say about the territories and countries inhabited by tribes, not far gone in development from the very people. Well, they will dance by the fires from this TAPI gas pipeline!
  6. Curious
    Curious 16 June 2017 11: 15
    Twenty years ago, they tried to build a gas pipeline from Turkmenistan to Pakistan and froze it precisely because of problems with Afghanistan.
    In addition, Afghanistan has quite extensive oil and gas reserves. Afghanistan's recoverable natural gas reserves are estimated at 1,67 trillion cubic meters. m, but for production, substantial funding is needed, which no one undertakes to provide.
    To understand the specifics of this country, such an example.
    The Americans built a gas station in Afghanistan, the cost of which amounted to $ 43 million. The special commission, after analyzing the costs, came to the conclusion that the costs were 140 times the amount of capital needed to create a similar facility in Pakistan.
    And one moment. Opium production accounts for slightly less than 50% of Afghanistan’s GDP, and the country is constantly setting new records for the volume of production of this drug. Why should they build gas pipelines?
    1. antivirus
      antivirus 16 June 2017 14: 54
      only grow a new peaceful generation-- then the gas will go
      1. Curious
        Curious 16 June 2017 15: 06
        Afghanistan is a country that no one has been able to conquer for many centuries, although it is located at the intersection of the interests of many states. They do not need another life.
        1. antivirus
          antivirus 16 June 2017 15: 08
          so let them grow their own peaceful new generation.

          Gazprom can not stand? - the tundra is big, there is where to sit down
          and help to cultivate peaceful thoughts is necessary. and return your influence
        2. megajob
          megajob 16 June 2017 19: 54
          Do not repeat this nonsense from a bad movie! am Afghanistan was consistently conquered by all who only wanted to. The only problem is that in Afghanistan - there’s not a damn thing for what it would be worth to rest and make a civilized country there! Therefore, constantly the Conquerors with the words "yes and **** as you like" left and the region again found itself in a civilizational asshole. All the rumors that the USSR was defeated-shove yourself know where. Mattress warriors do not even dream of the level of control over the territory that was at the time of the withdrawal of the USSR troops. bully
          1. Curious
            Curious 16 June 2017 20: 23
            And what kind of film is that? I probably in a hurry inaccurately expressed the idea, although I had in mind the same thing as you.
        3. 34 region
          34 region 16 June 2017 22: 06
          15.06/XNUMX. Sirius! It is not necessary to conquer. It’s more relevant not to let develop. What is being successfully done. If in the days of the USSR, the Afghans launched their astronaut, today they can only launch their shahid or their drug trafficking. That's all. In order not to fight competitors, it is better not to produce them. That is the whole point of conquest or non-conquest.
        4. art030765
          art030765 16 June 2017 23: 30
          it was conquered by Alexander of Macedon, Genghis Khan conquered it and the country will conquer the west. and conquer by the desire for consumption sooner or later, the Avgans will understand that the Avon is better than the Kalashnikov assault rifle that the jeep is better than the donkey
          1. Curious
            Curious 16 June 2017 23: 32
            I randomly counted 11 errors, is that a new grammar?
            1. blind67
              blind67 17 June 2017 09: 56
              No, this is a new troll.
        5. protoss
          protoss 18 June 2017 00: 15
          Quote: Curious
          Afghanistan is a country that for many centuries no one has yet been able to conquer

          the territory of present-day Afghanistan was conquered and ruled by: Persians (Achaemenids and Sassanids), Greco-Macedonians (Alexander, Seleucids, Greco-Bactrians), Kushans, Parthians, Ephthalites, Arabs, Tajiks (Samanids and Gurids), Central Asian Turkic ( Timurids, Mughals), Mongols, Kyzylbashs (Safavids, Nadir Shah).
          1. Curious
            Curious 18 June 2017 00: 17
            Read all the comments, I explained it once. Well, you immediately rush to write.
        6. mac789
          mac789 18 June 2017 16: 34
          Not true. It’s quite conquered to itself ... Uzbek alone ... Tamerlan was called ... He just built a couple of towers in Kabul and won everything ... True, the towers were made of human heads ...
  7. 3 Gradient
    3 Gradient 16 June 2017 17: 04
    One thing is clear.
    TAPI project. It can be implemented.
    And without the participation of Russia.
    But. Normal operation of the gas pipeline. Without the participation of Russia.
    The US will not be able to guarantee security in Afghanistan.
    They couldn’t ... Already beyond the power ...
    It is the negotiation process of Russia with the "informal leaders" of Afghanistan ...
    The only ... TAPI hope ...
    1. 34 region
      34 region 16 June 2017 22: 15
      17.04. Gradient! In my opinion, the Saudis are exactly the same as the Afghans. But the Americans were able to guarantee them safety. And were the Saudis at the forefront of progress? No. Camels grazed peacefully and swallowed sand. That is, at the technological level, they were like the Afghans. But US interests have made the Bedouin country prosperous like Las Vegas! If the gas pipeline in Afghanistan will belong to the Americans, then who knows! Maybe Afghans will compete with the Saudis in terms of living. Given that they (the Afghans) did a good job of self-liquidation.
      1. art030765
        art030765 16 June 2017 23: 39
        Respect 34 region hit the target when we are told that the West wants our bowels Saudi Arabia always comes to mind to destroy the entire population of this region to the West was like two fingers, but they gave technology invested money raised the country the question is why? the answer is trivial to trade cheaper than fighting the cornerstone of Western politics of the 20th and 21st century technology in exchange for resources is an exchange of about 10 to 1 ohm (an iPhone 7+ costs 1000 bucks a barrel of oil a brand average of 50 for one iPhone 20 barrels, and also a Mercedes Ferari and etc.)
  8. aleksandrs95
    aleksandrs95 16 June 2017 20: 38
    I am convinced that the Taliban can agree, Gazprom can build, only what is the reason for Gazprom to promote this project. YES and not least, the Americans may well physically block his work, not even the Taliban. Harnessing Russia here is simply necessary in order to minimize risks. Let them think what to give Russia.
    1. 34 region
      34 region 16 June 2017 22: 23
      20.38. Alexander! Naive guy! Harness Russia is to create competition for the United States. Harness the United States, this is the creation of competition in Russia. This is how private business interests clash with geopolitics. If private business controls the state apparatus (in the USA), then the state, like a policeman, acts in the interests of private business. State interests? No. Pure interest of private business.
  9. core
    core 18 June 2017 11: 39
    the problem is not in Afghanistan, but on its territory. they love bearded money, and on this basis are quite negotiable.
    five years ago it was necessary to recognize the "Taliban movement" as a party to the conflict in Afghanistan.
    and about the Indians, it takes me doubt that they are very smart-assed, they will invest in the project to a minimum, and when the pipe is pulled up to them, they will start to drop the price. and no where to go. money invested in the project must be beaten off.