Military Review

Is Astana-17 a Minsk-15 or Tehran-43?

Is Astana-17 a Minsk-15 or Tehran-43?

On the eve of a meeting in Astana, representatives of the official authorities of the Syrian Arab Republic with the so-called "opposition" began. The main objective of the negotiations is to achieve overcoming differences between the opposition and official Damascus to eliminate the terrorist groups recognized as such by the UN Security Council, and then begin the process of political settlement in the country. Recall that earlier the Syrian authorities stated that in order to resolve the conflict they are ready to go to one of the opposition’s demands - to hold a referendum on constitutional changes, namely, on the introduction of a multiparty system. This issue is on the agenda for discussion in the Kazakh capital.

Official Damascus is represented in Astana by a delegation led by the Permanent Representative of Syria to the UN, Bashar Jafari. The “opposition” side, which already includes 15 of various groups, is headed by one of the representatives of “Jaish al-Islam” Mohammed Alushem.

The negotiations themselves are held behind closed doors - for hundreds of journalists from different countries of the world, including Arab and Western countries, the doors of the meeting room remained virtually closed during the first stage of discussions. Only thanks to the work of the representatives of the press services of the delegations, information about the progress of the negotiation process came to the Kazmedia center, from where it spread throughout the world.

What attracted attention at the first stage of the discussion was that for the first time since the beginning of the conflict in Syria, official representatives of the Syrian authorities and the Syrian opposition appeared at the round table. Previously, those who call themselves “oppositionists” constantly arranged demarches about their participation in the discussion of the settlement process. Thus, none of the meetings in Geneva was ever held, while at the same time discussing at the same table acute Syrian issues by the members of the Damascus delegation and the “oppositionists”. As a result, the Geneva format turned into a farce, and did not lead to any positive results.

Geneva format, which tried to steer the United States, as well as Qatar and Saudi Arabia, January 23 2017 year was replaced by Astana format. Not that it is finally replaced - just another proposal from the Russian Federation, Turkey and Iran. And here it should be noted another important detail. For the first time in many years, representatives of the aforementioned Iran and Turkey appeared at the same table. Previously, it was difficult to imagine that the situation when the discussion of a particular issue is conducted by representatives of Tehran and Ankara is generally possible. The site in Astana showed that there is nothing impossible in the modern world.

The mediators in the dialogue between Damascus and the “opposition” (Russia, Turkey and Iran), who not only the mediators, but also the guarantor countries of the truce in the SAR, not only sat at the same table, but also prepared an important document called the final draft communique What is in the document? And in the document, the agreements that all three states, firstly, support the disengagement of the armed opposition from terrorist groups recognized as such by the UN Security Council, secondly, are working on plans to jointly fight Dzhebhat al-Nusroy and the IG ( banned in the Russian Federation).

Naturally, the implementation of these plans, by definition, cannot do without the participation of official Damascus, namely the Syrian armed forces. Thus, Turkey, whose authorities have only recently exploited the terminology "Assad must leave," today de facto recognize both Assad and the government army. Moreover, Turkey recognizes Iranian interests. But the medal has a downside: Ankara would never have done anything like it if all the other participants in the negotiation process did not recognize Turkish interests in the region. What are the interests in this case?

If you “dissect” all the recent actions of Turkey in Syria, you can draw the following conclusions. To begin with, Turkey wants to receive, as she herself claims, a “security belt” in the north of the SAR. De facto, this territory, which ultimately turns out to be the zone of the strongest influence of Ankara, taking into account its support of the Syrian Turkomans. In parallel with this, Turkey is going to resolve, well, its very Kurdish question. Under loud statements about the fight against the so-called "Islamic state", Turkey will settle scores with the Syrian Kurdish armed formations, which, with the weakening of Ankara, could easily cross the border of Turkey and under the slogan "Freedom and independence of Kurdistan!" .

But here the interests of Iran and Turkey overlap. After all, Kurdistan occupies a part of Iranian territory. In this country, every tenth - Kurd. That is, Kurds at least 7,5 million is also an impressive force that could “ask questions” to official Tehran if something had grown together with the independence or autonomy of Turkish Kurds with the support of Syrian Kurds. Moreover, all of this is taking place against the backdrop of the virtually designated sovereignty of Iraqi Kurdistan from Baghdad. The only thing that unites Baghdad and Erbil today is a map of the world and a joint operation against ISIS. Otherwise, these are actually two different states, or, at best, for the territorial integrity of Iraq - a confederation.

Does Turkish interests end there? Not at all. Their next “package” is related to the interests of those whom Ankara and promoted with the words “Assad must leave” earlier — that is, various groups, including “Jaish al-Islam”. For obvious reasons, the same “Josh ...” today has no “military” chances to win a political place in the sun of Syria. There is no chance to win it under the current Syrian constitution. Therefore, the Turkish puppeteers of “Jash” and other “moderates”, as it were, through negotiations, do everything so that the “moderates” simply do not roll into the sand and concrete crumb after all their “democratic successes” in Syria. If the same “Jaish al-Islam” by means of changes in the constitution, hypothetically adopted at the hypothetical referendum, can enter the Syrian parliament, then for Turkey it is another lever of political influence in the neighboring country.

In other words, all parties, including Damascus, have an interest in the negotiation process in Astana. Damascus, blood from the nose, you need to release power on at least one front, which means you will have to sit face to face with all sorts of “Jaish”, just to gather strength and destroy odious or possessed from “Al-Nusra” and ISIS. Will those who are represented at the talks in Astana from the "opposition" fight these terrorist groups? - frankly, the probability is small. But for Damascus, the main thing is not even that. The main thing is not to beat on the sly against the background of the agreements on the cease-fire.

And what about the interests of Russia? Everything is very clear here - Russia, in any case, has consolidated its position in the Middle East. And if you can achieve at least half of the goals that were set before the start of the Astana discussions, then this is a huge success. Putting Turkey and Iran on one side, plus making the West understand that its influence in this case is scanty, leave legitimate power in Syria and open the way for the political process - everything is great. True, it will be very difficult to retain the guarantee burden. "Moderate" can quickly "reorient" other forces - those who do not participate in Astana meetings. Although with Qatar now, it’s kind of like, Rosneft started working hard - it has sold the share package to the Qatar fund. And such transactions are just not carried out.

In general, the risks are great anyway. And if so, then Astana may well turn into an option of “Minsk” when there are agreements, but at least one of the parties considers that they themselves have the right to exempt them ...

But, as you know, who does not risk, that ...
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  1. Olgovich
    Olgovich 24 January 2017 07: 15
    Is Astana-17 a Minsk-15 or Tehran-43?

    This is Belovezhskaya Pushcha-91, IMHO
    1. 210ox
      210ox 24 January 2017 09: 27
      This is the head of a striped uncle ... After all, he was thrown like a sucker! Probably for the first time in recent history .. tongue
      Quote: Olgovich
      Is Astana-17 a Minsk-15 or Tehran-43?

      This is Belovezhskaya Pushcha-91, IMHO
      1. Talgat
        Talgat 25 January 2017 18: 17
        Quote: 210ox
        This is the slap of a striped uncle.

        Definitely! Now everyone in the world understood this.

        And it's not just a spit in the direction of Uncle Sam - it's just just a scandal and a revolution

        For the first time, neither NATO nor the United States was invited to such important negotiations! This is unthinkable!

        Russia Iran and Turkey were able to come to an agreement and start a dialogue, and at the same time it is SCARY to THINK - without NATO and amers! Regardless of the outcome of the negotiations, this is a precedent. when critical issues are resolved without the involvement of the WORLD GOVERNMENT

        I am sure that China is behind it - and it is he who sponsors this "spit" to the West
    2. siberalt
      siberalt 24 January 2017 11: 40
      Yeah, even if they come to an agreement, Russia will again be guilty for not fulfilling the "Astana Agreements". laughing
  2. Tatar 174
    Tatar 174 24 January 2017 07: 19
    Since the negotiations began, it means people are tired of the war and they will eventually achieve peace. I'm talking about people, not about shaitans, they must, as Trump said, wipe dust off.
    1. siberalt
      siberalt 24 January 2017 11: 42
      For Russia, the main thing is to build bases in Syria and lay the Turkish gas pipeline. And there let them even fight their whole lives. laughing
      1. Cat man null
        Cat man null 24 January 2017 23: 15
        Quote: siberalt
        ... throw Turkish gas pipeline ...

        - some whatExcuse me, gas pipeline?
  3. novel66
    novel66 24 January 2017 07: 52
    I doubt something, civil wars do not end with contracts, only the victory of one of the parties
    1. Stirbjorn
      Stirbjorn 24 January 2017 08: 34
      or just fixing the status quo, as was the case in Bosnia or Moldova
      1. novel66
        novel66 24 January 2017 09: 23
        well, in fact, this is the victory of the separatists, but the opposition in Syria needs all of Syria, and how to convince people with weapons to wait for the elections. they need everything now!
  4. rotmistr60
    rotmistr60 24 January 2017 08: 17
    The main thing has shown that you can try to negotiate without the Americans.
    1. novel66
      novel66 24 January 2017 09: 25
      apparently this will be the main result, maybe for this everything was started
  5. Stinger
    Stinger 24 January 2017 08: 23
    Is Astana-17 a Minsk-15 or Tehran-43?

    This is neither the one nor the other. Agree direct participants in the hostilities.
    1. sa-ag
      sa-ag 24 January 2017 10: 05
      Quote: Stinger
      This is neither the one nor the other. Agree direct participants in the hostilities.

      Something there ISIS in this case is not observed, after all, the party, and yes this is "Minsk", this is "The Russian Center for Reconciliation has firmly pointed out to the command of the Syrian army to observe the ceasefire, which in some cases is violated by individual commanders." very much resembles it.
  6. michajlo
    michajlo 24 January 2017 11: 51
    Welcome all!
    The fact that real negotiations began on Syria in Astana is encouraging.
    But it would be worth restraining the fervor and good expectations of the joyful members of the forum until the end of negotiations and before the start of implementation of the agreements reached, that is, wait 2-3 months, after the negotiations are over, when real results will be visible.

    For Russia itself, the results of military assistance to the official Syrian authorities, have already given much in the international, geopolitical terms and as an advertisement for Russian weapons and the decency and consistency of the Russian authorities in the promised support to a friendly foreign state.
    But besides the fact that Russian servicemen have been risking their lives every day for the second year now, one should not forget that as a result of already 6 years of foreign intervention "disguised as opposition," the country of Syria itself is in ruins. And after the restoration of the world, all these ruins will need to be RESTORED and paid for all construction work and return to the refugeeto their native Syria.
    And the recovery price will probably be with hundreds of billions of current American dollars.

    And to read and write comments on the current VO, my personal desire diminished.
    Especially when you consider that 17-Jan-2017 I was UNKNOWN (moderator, this specialist did NOT write to me about the reasons for his mistake) exposed "permanent ban" for "my allegedly incorrect comment on the article" About the Gaidar Forum ... " from 17-Jan-2017 ", which I just did not fully read, but did not write to her no comments and my last comment was from 12-Jan-2017 "About the 110th anniversary of the Queen ...".
    And only after my appeal by Email to his personal address, to the moderator of the VO site, about the real situation "with a permanent bath" FOR incomplete READING OF THE ARTICLE, the name of which was indicated in the DESCRIPTION OF THE BAN of my NON-EXISTING INTERRUPTION "17-Jan-2017, for me the next day, 18-Jan-2017, this ban was canceled.
    But the answer and clarification "for an oversight BAN due to READING the article", without writing a comment in violation of the RULES of the site VO, I never got it.
    Therefore, probably, it decreased on the COMMENT website, because "similar jaws from a drunken corporal (site moderator)" probably got many forum users, and only in my particular case, justice triumphed, and even then, probably until my first analytical and critical comment, since I very rarely express what is customary for the majority of jingoistic patriots, I express it very rarely, most of all I am concerned about the current problems and the future difficulties and threats, about which the people themselves, the authorities say nothing in advance, feeding them with patriotic slogans and giving out sweet promises that to carry out completely and to the end, as a rule, they forget.
  7. kriten
    kriten 24 January 2017 12: 00
    This is not Tehran 43, it is in the row of Munich 39 and Minsk 15.
  8. pts-m
    pts-m 24 January 2017 12: 19
    The forum in Astana will more likely resemble ... the construction of the Tower of Babel ... in ancient centuries. As a result ... the tower remained only in the history books ... And Hussein will be remembered more than once with a kind word, the principles of tolerance can be observed by the example of geyropa.
  9. Tired
    Tired 24 January 2017 14: 26
    Is Astana-17 Minsk-15 or Tehran-43? This is a transfusion from empty to empty.
  10. Nicholas Gonzalez
    Nicholas Gonzalez 24 January 2017 15: 26
    in general, "zilch", not Astana!
  11. iouris
    iouris 24 January 2017 23: 04
    It is not clear with whom to negotiate, and most importantly how. After the start of financing and the supply of ammunition, these guys will begin to fulfill any order. Now they just pull time to not bombed.
  12. Cat man null
    Cat man null 24 January 2017 23: 23
    ... Although now, it seems, Rosneft has made friends with Qatar - it has sold a share package to the Qatar fund. And such transactions are simply not carried out ...

    - but to ask what kind of "fund" is, and what is the history of relations between the "fund" first with the USSR, and then with the Russian Federation, the author did not have enough time, obviously ...
    - okay .. supplement:

    Glencore - this is the same company that, since 1974, has been a "window to the world" for the USSR, which was under eternal formal and informal sanctions, and then Glencore performed similar functions (selling what is difficult or impossible to sell and buying what is difficult or impossible to buy ) not only for the USSR, but also for Cuba, Libya, Iraq, and so on. By the way, in 2014, when our "Western partners" were pushing Rosneft to default, it was the advance payments from Glencore (according to various estimates about $ 5 billion) that came in handy to stabilize the company's financial situation ...

    - by the way, the sale of a minority stake (Qatari, yes) to Glencore does not mean "friendship with Qatar"
    - here the author is a little ... exaggerates and simplifies wink
    1. iouris
      iouris 25 January 2017 22: 37
      Big bucks love dead silence. Old people say that everything in the sublunar world belongs to one of these two: Rothschild or Rockefeller. The rest is the details. The main detail that the rest get for labor at its market value and try to steal. But these two are very dangerous to steal.
      1. Cat man null
        Cat man null 25 January 2017 22: 39
        Quote: iouris
        But everything belongs to one of these two: Rothschild or Rockefeller. The rest is the details

        - Spyrology horse at a gallop wink
        - that is, there is nothing in the world that does not belong to Rothschild or Rockefeller? And which of them do you belong to?
        - I definitely don’t belong to anyone but myself laughing