Go Russia? West does not let!
In the West, there is no doubt that in the coming year, Moscow will rush to the offensive on all geopolitical fronts, crowding past formidable opponents. In 2017, Russia will take full advantage of the discord in the ranks of the European Union in order to achieve its goals. At the same time, the Russians will try to advance on the former Soviet "periphery". The only question is whether they will succeed.
According to Eugene Chausovsky, an expert of the famous American analytical center Stratfor, Russia uses the weaknesses of the West in 2017. This analyst said in an article published on the portal "Market Watch".
Eugene Chausovsky is an analyst whose interests include political, economic and security issues related to the territories of the former Soviet Union, Europe and Latin America. Before settling at Stratfor, he worked at the University of Texas, where he studied Russia's demographic trends and their influence on the country's political and electoral systems. The expert has a degree in international relations from the specified university.
Chausovsky believes that in the 2017 year, Russia can finally realize what she was “looking forward to”.
Over the past three years, this country has “suffered numerous strategic defeats,” the analyst believes, and faced “considerable pressure from the West.” "Euromaidan" in Kiev, developed into a real uprising, opened a period of expansion of cooperation between Ukraine, the European Union and NATO. Other “strategic countries” located at the “periphery of Russia”, for example, Moldova and Georgia, at the same time followed Ukraine, moving closer to the West and NATO. And another thing: US and NATO forces expanded their presence and activity along the borderlands - from Poland to the Baltic countries and Romania.
Meanwhile, Moscow tried “in some cases” to influence the events in the European Union and the United States, intending to “undermine Western unity,” the author admits.
The United States and the European Union didn’t do anything either: they “imposed and constantly extended” sanctions against the Russian Federation, justified by the latter’s actions in the Crimea and in the east of Ukraine. Restrictive measures created an additional burden on the Russian economy. This economy, the expert reminds, plunged into recession after the fall in oil prices in the middle of 2014.
In order to "knock out" its place at the negotiating table with the West, Moscow began to participate in the Syrian conflict. However, this strategy did not lead to the desired result (with respect to not the Syria, but the conflict in Ukraine).
Yet 2017 year may be the start for a new stage in the confrontation of Russia with the West.
The past year showed the weakness of the West: Brexit showed deep cracks in the European Union, and the victory of Donald Trump - a split in the presidential elections in the United States. These events can serve as the beginning of a breakthrough in Washington’s policy toward Moscow. Another break could happen in Europe, where elections will be held in 2017. The centers of change can be France, the Netherlands, Germany, and also, probably, Italy. This may further deepen the differences in the continental block and even "challenge the future of European integration."
Therefore, Russia has opportunities to counter the West in the 2017 year. They were before. Moscow is already working in this direction, influencing events in the European Union and the United States, undermining Western unity through “propaganda campaigns, cyber attacks and political maneuvering.” Most likely, Russia will intensify these efforts in the 2017 year, the author admits. The goal will be to mitigate or end the regime of sanctions imposed earlier by the US and the EU. At the same time, successes in Syria can improve the position of the Kremlin in negotiations with the administration of Donald Trump "on a number of issues," the expert notes.
In addition, Moscow will restore the former influence of "the post-Soviet periphery," indicates Chausovsky. Given the turmoil in the European Union, Brussels will hesitate for a long time before new members join in 2017. As for the prospects for integration with the European Union and NATO, are there any such Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia? The expert does not even rule out that all three states “will reconsider their relations with Russia”. There are grounds for this today: at the recent presidential elections in Moldova, Igor Dodon was elected, a candidate who pledged to expand the country's ties with Moscow and reconsider the conditions for integration with the EU. Ukraine and Georgia are unlikely to follow his example, but they can still approach relations with Russia more pragmatically.
At the same time, Moscow may strengthen its influence in Azerbaijan and Uzbekistan, which have maintained neutrality with respect to Russia since the collapse of the Soviet Union. Moscow recently signed agreements with each country to expand military cooperation. Transactions do not mean “strategic regrouping” either for Baku or for Tashkent, but they will nevertheless increase Russia's influence in these republics. In parallel, Moscow will try to play a more active role in ensuring security in Central Asia.
As for Belarus, Armenia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, these states in 2017 year, according to the expert, "will double their cooperation with Russia." Many of these countries have already signed agreements with Moscow regarding the deepening of security integration.
However, there are no guarantees that Moscow will succeed. Russia's return “to a big game is far from guaranteed,” the analyst writes. The United States and NATO are unlikely to completely withdraw their forces from the European borderlands. In addition, Russia will not be able to dominate Eurasia. Finally, various forces in the United States and the European Union will prevent the lifting or easing of sanctions against Moscow. Ukraine and Georgia will not necessarily look in the direction of Russia. According to the analyst, they will estimate the possibility of creating their own alliances with neighboring countries (Poland, Turkey) in order to "strengthen themselves against Moscow."
Russia itself is unlikely to “act too aggressively”. The expert believes that Moscow “will be cautious,” since it has “lingering economic and political problems” at home.
Nevertheless, the author believes, Russia "can make significant progress" in negotiations with the West and on the former Soviet periphery in 2017.
While an expert from the Stratfor analytical center points out Moscow’s activity in the international arena and attempts to influence certain forces in Europe, which can lead to a change in the geopolitical balance, the United States does not intend to weaken sanctions, but introduces new ones before the New Year , on the personal initiative of Mr. Obama, who was left to steer America nothing at all. And that's not all: US senators hurry to enter one more (this time “all-encompassing”) sanctions against Russia, which, like the New Year's “gift” from Mr. Obama, are tied to “cyber interference” during the November 2016 presidential election. There seems to be no end-edge to these sanctions, and Donald Trump is unlikely to be able to influence this process. Cold War is much easier to start than stop.
According to Eugene Chausovsky, an expert of the famous American analytical center Stratfor, Russia uses the weaknesses of the West in 2017. This analyst said in an article published on the portal "Market Watch".
Eugene Chausovsky is an analyst whose interests include political, economic and security issues related to the territories of the former Soviet Union, Europe and Latin America. Before settling at Stratfor, he worked at the University of Texas, where he studied Russia's demographic trends and their influence on the country's political and electoral systems. The expert has a degree in international relations from the specified university.
Chausovsky believes that in the 2017 year, Russia can finally realize what she was “looking forward to”.
Over the past three years, this country has “suffered numerous strategic defeats,” the analyst believes, and faced “considerable pressure from the West.” "Euromaidan" in Kiev, developed into a real uprising, opened a period of expansion of cooperation between Ukraine, the European Union and NATO. Other “strategic countries” located at the “periphery of Russia”, for example, Moldova and Georgia, at the same time followed Ukraine, moving closer to the West and NATO. And another thing: US and NATO forces expanded their presence and activity along the borderlands - from Poland to the Baltic countries and Romania.
Meanwhile, Moscow tried “in some cases” to influence the events in the European Union and the United States, intending to “undermine Western unity,” the author admits.
The United States and the European Union didn’t do anything either: they “imposed and constantly extended” sanctions against the Russian Federation, justified by the latter’s actions in the Crimea and in the east of Ukraine. Restrictive measures created an additional burden on the Russian economy. This economy, the expert reminds, plunged into recession after the fall in oil prices in the middle of 2014.
In order to "knock out" its place at the negotiating table with the West, Moscow began to participate in the Syrian conflict. However, this strategy did not lead to the desired result (with respect to not the Syria, but the conflict in Ukraine).
Yet 2017 year may be the start for a new stage in the confrontation of Russia with the West.
The past year showed the weakness of the West: Brexit showed deep cracks in the European Union, and the victory of Donald Trump - a split in the presidential elections in the United States. These events can serve as the beginning of a breakthrough in Washington’s policy toward Moscow. Another break could happen in Europe, where elections will be held in 2017. The centers of change can be France, the Netherlands, Germany, and also, probably, Italy. This may further deepen the differences in the continental block and even "challenge the future of European integration."
Therefore, Russia has opportunities to counter the West in the 2017 year. They were before. Moscow is already working in this direction, influencing events in the European Union and the United States, undermining Western unity through “propaganda campaigns, cyber attacks and political maneuvering.” Most likely, Russia will intensify these efforts in the 2017 year, the author admits. The goal will be to mitigate or end the regime of sanctions imposed earlier by the US and the EU. At the same time, successes in Syria can improve the position of the Kremlin in negotiations with the administration of Donald Trump "on a number of issues," the expert notes.
In addition, Moscow will restore the former influence of "the post-Soviet periphery," indicates Chausovsky. Given the turmoil in the European Union, Brussels will hesitate for a long time before new members join in 2017. As for the prospects for integration with the European Union and NATO, are there any such Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia? The expert does not even rule out that all three states “will reconsider their relations with Russia”. There are grounds for this today: at the recent presidential elections in Moldova, Igor Dodon was elected, a candidate who pledged to expand the country's ties with Moscow and reconsider the conditions for integration with the EU. Ukraine and Georgia are unlikely to follow his example, but they can still approach relations with Russia more pragmatically.
At the same time, Moscow may strengthen its influence in Azerbaijan and Uzbekistan, which have maintained neutrality with respect to Russia since the collapse of the Soviet Union. Moscow recently signed agreements with each country to expand military cooperation. Transactions do not mean “strategic regrouping” either for Baku or for Tashkent, but they will nevertheless increase Russia's influence in these republics. In parallel, Moscow will try to play a more active role in ensuring security in Central Asia.
As for Belarus, Armenia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, these states in 2017 year, according to the expert, "will double their cooperation with Russia." Many of these countries have already signed agreements with Moscow regarding the deepening of security integration.
However, there are no guarantees that Moscow will succeed. Russia's return “to a big game is far from guaranteed,” the analyst writes. The United States and NATO are unlikely to completely withdraw their forces from the European borderlands. In addition, Russia will not be able to dominate Eurasia. Finally, various forces in the United States and the European Union will prevent the lifting or easing of sanctions against Moscow. Ukraine and Georgia will not necessarily look in the direction of Russia. According to the analyst, they will estimate the possibility of creating their own alliances with neighboring countries (Poland, Turkey) in order to "strengthen themselves against Moscow."
Russia itself is unlikely to “act too aggressively”. The expert believes that Moscow “will be cautious,” since it has “lingering economic and political problems” at home.
Nevertheless, the author believes, Russia "can make significant progress" in negotiations with the West and on the former Soviet periphery in 2017.
* * *
While an expert from the Stratfor analytical center points out Moscow’s activity in the international arena and attempts to influence certain forces in Europe, which can lead to a change in the geopolitical balance, the United States does not intend to weaken sanctions, but introduces new ones before the New Year , on the personal initiative of Mr. Obama, who was left to steer America nothing at all. And that's not all: US senators hurry to enter one more (this time “all-encompassing”) sanctions against Russia, which, like the New Year's “gift” from Mr. Obama, are tied to “cyber interference” during the November 2016 presidential election. There seems to be no end-edge to these sanctions, and Donald Trump is unlikely to be able to influence this process. Cold War is much easier to start than stop.
Observed and commented on Oleg Chuvakin
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