German statistics stumbled over the political interests of the authorities
Last Thursday, the Austrian newspaper Der Standard published data losses from sanctions between the EU and Russia. The calculation was carried out by researchers of the Institute for Economic Analysis (WIFO) on the order of the Austrian Ministry of Economics. Deutsche Welle from Germany asked representatives of the German Ministry of Economics and the Federal Ministry of Labor to comment on the results of Austrian researchers. In response, I heard a banal excuse: “We do not make such calculations ...”. Journalists were advised to "treat these numbers with caution.""Clean" counting Austrian researchers
The advice, however, is clearly redundant. For the most part, the German media "did not notice" the publication of WIFO data in an Austrian newspaper. The situation is extremely curious. The world knows the passion of the Germans for statistics, calculations, calculations, analysis of economic results. There was even a kind of meme - "German statistics knows everything."
In fact, the Federal Statistical Office of Germany, comfortably located in the spa town of Wiesbaden, sometimes surprises with its awareness of the life of the country. In the German media weekly published reports, press releases Wiesbaden statisticians. What they just do not have: the number of overnight stays in the German hotel sector, visits to museums, theaters and cinema (with a layout for federal lands and individual cities), shopping in stores, using public transport and much more, apparently useful for the knowledge of burghers.
In releases and reports there is no data only on the losses of the German economy due to anti-Russian sanctions and the resulting job cuts. Do not bother with similar calculations and in the relevant departments. It seems that someone has imposed a taboo on the collection and publication of this extremely important information for the public.
Say what you like, but the main apologist for the current economic sanctions in the European Union are the German authorities and, above all, the Bundes Chancellor Angela Merkel. By putting pressure on Russia at the center of foreign policy, the German government is less concerned about the economic consequences of its actions for its own country.
Most likely, in order to conceal the losses and miscalculations of the sanctions policy, the federal chancellor’s office deliberately keeps the Germans in the dark about the harm caused by the sanctions of Germany and the European Union as a whole. The Austrians answered this. WIFO economists have estimated the losses of the European Union in 2015 year from the sanctions it imposed against Russia and from Moscow’s retaliatory sanctions in 17,6 billion euros. “This led to the loss of nearly 400 thousands of jobs,” Der Standard wrote.
According to data published by an Austrian newspaper, the German economy suffered the most from sanctions. Its GDP losses amounted to more than six billion euros, or, according to another estimate, about 97 thousands of jobs. In terms of GDP losses, Germany, Poland, Italy and the Czech Republic are following closely behind Germany. “According to the number of lost jobs, the order is different,” the newspaper said. “Germany is slightly ahead of Poland, and behind them the Czech Republic, France and Italy go by a large margin.”
The study of the Austrian Institute is remarkable in that it was able to isolate the “pure” data of losses from the sanctions. Earlier, the Center for European Policy Studies in Brussels (CEPS) concluded that sanctions had little effect on the EU economy. The Center has explained the precipitous decline in exports to Russia, above all, by the recession in the Russian economy.
WIFO economists generally agreed with the assessment of Brussels analysts, but they also accounted for a serious share of the sanctions - 44 percent in reducing the volume of trade between the EU and the Russian Federation. Only in the 2015 year, we recall, this led to the loss of "17,6 billion euros and almost 400 thousands of jobs."
Business opposes sanctions
The German media, in order not to disturb their compatriots, tried not to notice the new research of the Austrian Institute. They, moreover, will not pay attention to the calculations of Russian specialists. They were brought already mentioned Deutsche Welle. Referring to the assessment of the Deputy Minister of Economic Development of Russia Alexei Likhachev, she called the losses of the EU countries from the sanctions in the same 2015 year in 50 billion euros. Russia's damage amounted to 25 billion euros, or one and a half percentage points of GDP.
Not everyone in Germany is so easy on the losses from Merkel’s cabinet sanction policy. Take, for example, the Eastern Committee of the German economy. This is a very reputable organization. For many years she has been developing economic ties with Eastern Europe, Russia. Now the Eastern Committee is actively in favor of lifting the sanctions.
The head of the organization, Wolfgang Büchele, believes such a cancellation is in the interests of German business. In a recent article in a German business newspaper, Handelsblatt Büchele provided estimates from economists from the universities of Bremen and Leipzig. According to their data, the total losses from the sanctions against Russia made in Germany in 2014-2015 amounted to 13,5 billion euros.
From the very beginning, the German business considered sanctions against Russia as a non-economic measure. Back in May, 2014, when only limited cooperation between Western countries and the Russian Federation was discussed, the flagships of the German business BASF, Siemens, Volkswagen, Adidas and Deutsche Bank spoke out sharply against the proposed measures, but were not heard by the German authorities.
Then business associations joined in, such as the East Committee of the German Economy. They still continue a stable political line on the abolition of existing sanctions and the development of mutually beneficial cooperation. So far, however, without much success. The thing is that the containment policy of Russia is the personal attitude of the Bundeskanzler, Angela Merkel, to our country and its leader.
Merkel determined this position immediately after she came to power in 2005. She then said that she speaks Russian and Putin speaks German, but this does not mean that they will find a common language. So the new chancellor declared her, later confirmed, course for confrontation with Russia. The experts found it difficult then to determine the reasons for such a radical turn in the politics of Berlin.
Later, the British Sunday Times will give its version of Merkel’s tough stance towards Russia. According to the newspaper, during one of the first meetings with Angela Merkel (by the way, the daughter of a Lutheran pastor), Putin criticized the refusal of the European elite from Christianity. He called the modern political tendency in the European Union "the decline of values" and the "moral decay of the West."
The Russian leader sharply criticized the European authorities for endowing homosexual people with the right to create same-sex families, which destroys the classical family, for other moral liberties from the point of view of classical Christianity.
According to the British edition, Merkel, in the narrow circle of those close to her, called Putin’s thinking “ultraconservative” and said that “Putin can only be dealt with on his own terms, which is both unacceptable and impossible.” “The Chancellor has now become the strongest supporter of the new strategy for containing Russia,” she said. “She started creating a united European front against the Kremlin.”
The fruits of this policy appeared very soon. The Bundes Chancellor, following the example of the Americans, began to look for "human rights violations" in Russia. In the winter of 2009, Merkel essentially supported Ukraine’s illegal selection of transit gas. With her active participation, the European Union imposed restrictions on the supply of Russian energy resources. So the new continental gas pipeline "Nord Stream-1" actually began to work in poltruby.
There was much more before the introduction of sanctions: from the active support of the scandalous antics of the punk band Pussy Riot to the boycott of the opening of the Olympics in Sochi. Now, when even the most short-sighted politicians have become clear the key role of Ukraine in the crisis in the Donbas, Merkel continues to persist in the extension of sanctions. It is explainable. Sanctions against Russia have become, for the Bundeskanzlerin, perhaps the only tool with which it can unite European countries around the goals of the German government.
Business is another matter. Nobody compensates his losses. It is not by chance that even under the conditions of sanctions, German companies manage to maintain their ties with Russia. As the German Die Welt writes, “Many German firms suffer from sanctions against Russia. But some bypass the restrictions: instead of exporting goods to this gigantic country, they buy enterprises there. ” Last year, direct investment from Germany alone rose to 1,78 billion euros.
As an example, the newspaper cites the manufacturer of agricultural equipment Claas, the company supplying the Russian market of hard cheese Deutsche Milchkontor, the pharmaceutical company Bionorica and others. This year Bionorica launches its own production in Voronezh. The company has invested in a new project 30 million euros.
German business is learning to circumvent sanctions and incur losses within Germany itself. Both of these circumstances characterize Chancellor Merkel’s sanctions policy as a failure. That is why the German authorities are trying to hide information about the real state of affairs from their fellow citizens. Gagged even the all-knowing German statistics. But the truth is still gradually making its way into society. How does it comprehend this truth, show autumn elections to the Bundestag ...
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