Can a power vacuum be formed in Uzbekistan?

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Last weekend, Uzbek President Islam Karimov once again found himself in a hospital. Official Uzbek sources say that Karimov is undergoing inpatient treatment and needs a full medical examination. Details about Karimov’s illness, which led him to the hospital, are not cited by official sources. Against this background, some media outlets in Uzbekistan reported on death of Islam Karimov. However, due to the fact that the official Tashkent did not confirm this information at the time of preparing the material, it is worth reflecting from the standpoint that Karimov still holds his post.

Can a power vacuum be formed in Uzbekistan?




Against the background of frankly scant official reports, more extensive information appears in other Uzbek information sources. In particular, the so-called People’s Movement of Uzbekistan (NDU) reports that the president of the republic suffered a stroke. At the same time, the NDU refers to its own sources in the government and adds that Karimov was hospitalized after a meeting with Uzbek Olympians and drinking alcohol.

Of messages:
26 August 2016, the president of Uzbekistan Islam Karimov fainted a half to two hours after the banquet held at the Durmen residence. The feast lasted from 20.00 to 22.30-23.00 hours. Islam Karimov, who was glad for the victory of our athletes, began to overuse vodka and other alcoholic beverages. The president did not obey even the warnings of Zelimkhan aka (head of the presidential administration Zelimkhan Khaidarov - author's note). Around 0: 00-0: 30, Islam Karimov was still talking with Zelimkhan Khaidarov. The president, who was explaining something, suddenly fainted and fell. The doctors on duty at the medical station of the Durmen residence rendered first aid and diagnosed that a cerebral hemorrhage had occurred - a stroke.


In connection with the incident, Karimov was taken to government hospital No. XXUMX. After the course of intensive therapy by Uzbek doctors, doctors from Israel and the FRG were invited to Tashkent, who allegedly confirmed the dire state of the President of Uzbekistan, and that "everything will be decided by the next five days, during which anything can happen."

It turns out that the final conclusions on the state of health of Islam Karimov will be made no earlier than August 31, and this means that the President of the country is unlikely to be able to participate in events to celebrate the Independence Day of Uzbekistan.

To reflect on whether the absolute truth is what the source of the Popular Movement of Uzbekistan reports is essentially meaningless. Here, much more important is not the result of which Karimov was in the clinic, but the fact that he was in it, and not for the first time in recent times. It says that the health of the 78-year-old head of the Uzbek state is hard to say, to put it mildly, and that in Uzbekistan, with all due respect for the current president and the length of his tenure, the changes on the political Olympus are quite possible. And these possible changes are of interest, already because Karimov in the entire post-Soviet space is one of two (along with Kazakhstan’s President Nursultan Nazarbayev) political “long-livers” in the rank of president. Karimov has been the president of Uzbekistan since March 1990, when Uzbekistan was de jure still part of the USSR.

We need to wish Islam Karimov recovery. And yet it would not be too much to allow yourself to reflect on where Uzbekistan can go in the event of a change of its supreme leader, with whom the country has already grown together for 26 over the years, as they say.
Who do Central Asian political scientists currently see as likely “successors” to Islam Karimov?

If I may say so, the youngest daughter of the current President of the Republic of 38-year-old Lola Karimova-Tillyaeva is leading with a large margin. In the republic, Lola Karimova has a high public popularity, including due to the fact that she is the founder of charitable foundations, among which are a foundation from which funds are used to help orphans. In interviews, the daughter of the current head of Uzbekistan has repeatedly stated that the main way for the development of the country can and should be the development of the education system, culture and sports. She graduated from the University of International Economics and Diplomacy in Tashkent, as well as Tashkent State University. For some time she worked as a teacher, served as head of the Uzbekistan gymnastics federation, and later as deputy head of the Moscow State University branch in the republic. Currently is the representative of Uzbekistan to UNESCO.

From the official website of Lola Karimova-Tillyaeva:
From the first days of their work, L. Karimova-Tillyaeva and her team have been actively developing intercultural dialogue by acquainting the European public with a rich spiritual and culturalhistorical the heritage of Uzbekistan. In the context of the term “clash of civilizations”, which is increasingly used in modern world practice, in his activity as the ambassador of Uzbekistan to UNESCO, Lola Karimova-Tillyaeva pays special attention to supporting education and intercultural understanding, as important factors for ensuring a more constructive dialogue between the West and the East that helps to overcome destructive stereotypes and delusions.


However, Lola Karimova’s popularity in Uzbekistan and its focus on inter-civilizational dialogue may not be to the liking of various forces, and not only in Uzbekistan.

First, in the history of its independence, Uzbekistan is accustomed to the fact that at the helm of the state there is a person with a pronounced authoritarian essence, if he is used to dialogue with someone, it is exclusively from the position of understanding his actually monarchical role in the state. Moreover, Uzbekistan is a country with a prevailing Muslim community. All these factors within the country can hardly be put forward as supporting Lola Karimova, if only because she is a woman, and so far without obvious hints of the ability to take over all the power in the republic against the background of her frank secularism. Secondly, there is an external player who is ready to get into his own and not his own business. It's about the United States, for whom the very fact of establishing some kind of constructive dialogue between East and West is like a sharp knife. In the end, we can assume that if Lola Karimova eventually becomes the president of Uzbekistan, then she will obviously have to tighten her position, seek the loyalty of the security forces and seek support in foreign policy. Otherwise, they can sweep away both "their" and others. It is a painful tidbit of Central Asia, Uzbekistan, so that the “partners” would allow a person with humanistic and peacemaking views to sit at the helm of the country. They will obviously want to put either on their board, or simply arrange a bloody discord, as has already been (is) in many countries of the post-Soviet space and not only post-Soviet ...

Here, however, there is another important factor that, by definition, can not be overlooked. Lola Karimova-Tillyaeva herself has repeatedly stated that politics is not her path. Her way - social activities, family, help the needy.



But these statements were up to the complications of the father’s state of health, and now they may even ask Lola ... So to speak, popular appeal, all that.

The second likely candidate for the post of the future president of Uzbekistan is Prime Minister Shavkat Mirziyayev (Mirziyoyev). This person occupies the second most important post in the state for almost 13 years, which means that, by definition, he has the confidence of Islam Karimov. In Uzbekistan, he is considered the "Karimov's man", but at the same time they do not see in him the charisma that the president has in action. Although the question of charisma for the future president of Uzbekistan is open by definition. Who will be able to fully replace the “father of nations” for Uzbeks, what will the doctors say? ..


Meeting of the Prime Ministers of Russia and Uzbekistan


For obvious reasons, the question of possible elections is now actively begin to work out the opposition forces in the republic. Understanding that a supreme power vacuum can indeed be formed in the country, people who have been feeding on the same American grants for many years can easily rely on what it was done at one time in Georgia or in Ukraine - “the pursuit of democratic values”. Given the fact that millions of economically active citizens of Uzbekistan are outside of it, either in search of work or as those who have already found one, it can be assumed that there is a high probability that the campaign to “reorient” Uzbekistan to all the same “democratic values” among those who sees his life in Uzbekistan unsettled. It remains only to find the "faces of the democrats" - and the Uzbek Yatsenyuk, Turchinov and Tyagnibok can be found quickly. USAID conducted its work in the republic for a reason.

In such a situation, Russia clearly needs to work to ensure that at the helm of a large Central Asian country there are no persons like those who were brought to power in Ukraine by well-known forces. Receiving a territory of contention against the background of the threat of radicalism and terrorism also from the southern underbelly of Russia will become a truly unforgivable mistake, capable of leading to horrendous consequences both for Russia and for Central Asia.
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  1. +4
    30 August 2016 06: 30
    Which direction Uzbekistan will turn the big question. Uzbekistan among the Central Asian republics has always tried to stay apart. A sort of Asian dad. Only unlike Lukashenko. there is no understanding that the moon cannot spin on its own, sooner or later it will have to choose.
    ZY In the piggy bank conspiracy theories. At one time, Niyazov choked on something, and his successor no longer showed up in the expanses of Central Asia. Interesting? Is this just a coincidence?
    1. jjj
      +2
      30 August 2016 08: 17
      I'm afraid this is a new hot spot
    2. +1
      30 August 2016 14: 02
      In general, Uzbekistan has long been on its own and does not turn in any direction, so the question here is not who will rush into the arms of Uzbekistan - China, the United States or Russia, but whether there will be a coup or civil war in Uzbekistan or everything will remain as it is.

      Historically, the Uzbeks in Central Asia constituted and still constitute the largest national community in relation to their neighbors and therefore considered themselves leaders in relation to them. The collapse of the Union did not change their view of neighbors and their land. Conflicts on national soil couldn’t disappear, and constant skirmishes on the border are a vivid example of this.

      As it is known today, there is one "leader" in the world who considers himself to be a benefactor and bearer of democracy, who realizes his principles through coups d'etat and the collapse of countries, so he should be feared in the first place.
  2. +6
    30 August 2016 06: 46
    The disease has drunk ... now the monuments will be created for him, the city will be renamed, against this background, there will be a fierce war for power. The author is whining about the fact that God forbid, the United States will fit ... is it full of those that the United States? This is the Chinese zone of influence, more than a draw. Neither Russia nor the USA have anything to do there. Karimov did not go to the victory parade in Moscow, but he was at the celebration of the end of WWII in Beijing, and how they met Sin Jing Ping in the Oliy Majlis
    Deputies of the parliament of Uzbekistan constantly interrupted the Chinese President Xi Jinping, who was speaking in front of them, with standing applause.

    So the successor will go to Beijing for yasak anyway ...
    1. +1
      30 August 2016 08: 32
      That’s the reason to put your little man on the throne.
      Although we need it?
      1. +2
        30 August 2016 09: 06
        That’s the reason to put your little man on the throne.
        Although we need it?
        The Big Something on the other side of the planet has not historically asked such questions.
    2. +11
      30 August 2016 10: 27
      So the successor will go to Beijing for yasak anyway ...


      According yasak? *))) And how long have we, Uzbeks, conquered China, that he pays tribute to us? *)))
    3. +4
      30 August 2016 12: 04
      I think that now both "ours" and "not ours", and in general everything in a row, will clash there in a struggle for power. If China also gets into this porridge, there will be minced meat with a very unpleasant smell.
      Rehearsal for the Kazakh "redistribution". But Uzbekistan has almost double the population of Kazakhstan, and the Fergana Valley is a wildly explosive area.
    4. 0
      30 August 2016 13: 02
      Quote: Leto
      Karimov did not go to the victory parade in Moscow, but he was at the celebration of the end of WWII in Beijing, and how they met Sin Jing Ping in the Oliy Majlis

      And in addition, the Uzbek Armed Forces are acquiring Chinese military equipment.
    5. +1
      30 August 2016 15: 03
      Quote: Leto
      then the Chinese zone of influence, more than a draw. Neither Russia nor the USA have anything to do there.

      Yes of course. Just because Karimov went to Beijing celebrations? Powerful analytics !!!!!
      Now when you know the real alignment of affairs and strength, then you can talk!
    6. 0
      30 August 2016 18: 16
      Drunk a sick
      There was a message about his death - http://www.fergananews.com/news/25235
  3. +2
    30 August 2016 07: 36
    The people of the USSR realized that the "Great Helmsman" did not last forever after the message: "an excess of sugar was found in Stalin's urine." The Uzbeks are waiting for the same revelations and (God forbid) changes. Because for all the hypertrophied authoritarianism in Uzbekistan, the region as a whole has developed at least a fragile, but equilibrium. Even experts cannot predict where the pendulum will swing in case of unsettled "water" conflicts with Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan. Despite the fact that their relations with the most influential player in Central Asia, Kazakhstan, are cool, to put it mildly. For example, it is much more difficult for me, who has relatives in Uzbekistan, to travel there than to any other country on the planet. By the way, this historical "jealousy" of two closely related peoples is typical. Is not it?
    1. +4
      30 August 2016 08: 56
      the most influential player ... well, well
    2. +1
      30 August 2016 14: 44
      Well, now the balance is over. A-priory. There is no force inside Uzbekistan that can independently restore order in a new way. It is necessary to pincer some of them (in which the raking little hooks have moved) and bring others closer, to re-build the balance ...
      In Asian countries, all this never happened without blood. And in those formations that did not become countries ... In general, who to bet on is the question of the future head of the country. Who will win Uzbekistan? We Chinese or America.
    3. +3
      30 August 2016 15: 19
      Quote: blizart
      Despite the fact that with the most influential player in Central Asia-Kazakhstan
      Yes Yes.
      About the most influential, another friend correctly noted above
      Quote: Leto
      This is the Chinese zone of influence, more than a draw. Neither Russia nor the USA

      Whoever bends under the PRC is "the most influential in the region"
      You can recall dear blizart, because of which mass protests began in Aktau and Atyrau in the spring of this year. And because of what the blood poured in Zhanaozen ????
  4. +3
    30 August 2016 08: 00
    It will be better for everyone if Uzbekistan receives the transfer of power by inheritance, as soon as the Americans get into it with their democracy, and the country goes to war, all the more problems the state has. I think the CSTO heads of state should help ensure the continuity of the transition of power and recognize this power. say the lesser of evils.
    Now the US authorities are busy with the elections, but if they pay attention to Uzbekistan we will get another Ukraine at the borders
    1. +4
      30 August 2016 08: 23
      it will be worse than Ukraine
    2. +3
      30 August 2016 15: 26
      Quote: APASUS
      I think the CSTO heads of state should help to ensure the continuity of the transition of power and recognize this power. This is the lesser of evils, so to speak.

      No, no, no, no ... Believe me, in our civil service people are literate, similar scenarios are calculated for sure. This is exclusively an internal affair of our state and our state will independently deal with everything.
    3. 0
      30 August 2016 15: 30
      I think here the heads of state of the CSTO should help ensure the continuity of the transition of power and recognize this power.


      Thank you very much for your "concern", we'll figure it out somehow ourselves. And the heads of the CSTO would be better off dealing with a real, bloody massacre in eastern Ukraine. You there ... sort it out there, for God's sake, as much as you want ...
      1. +1
        30 August 2016 17: 31
        How do you understand my Uzbeks at work telling me.
        That’s why there’s a serious fear that you won’t understand
        1. 0
          30 August 2016 18: 14
          there is a serious fear that you will not understand


          They can tell you a lot of things ... *) they’ll also call me on kaaak’s work, they’ll start kaaak, all ears are overgrown with noodles - you endure 3-4 hours, since it’s punished, you don’t have to offend citizens strictly, then you begin to bark to speak briefly, the essence and only the case ... *))

          Do not judge the country, not by the main focus groups ... *))
        2. 0
          31 August 2016 20: 28
          Those Uzbeks who say something at your work are those who did not work in their homeland. It is unlikely that they speak Russian well enough for you to understand what they wanted to tell you.
    4. 0
      30 August 2016 18: 18
      It will be better for everyone if Uzbekistan receives the inheritance of power
      Unfortunately, he has a daughter, and the east will not allow women to power.
  5. 0
    30 August 2016 08: 10
    Americans joyfully rub their hands ....
  6. 0
    30 August 2016 08: 38
    I hope that it doesn’t work out like with Ukraine and we already have HSP
  7. +2
    30 August 2016 08: 54
    The only option acceptable for Russia is the annexation of Uzbekistan and the extermination of feudal lords of all calibers.
    It is impossible to leave Central Asia to the Americans or local princes, who, at the first opportunity, become lackeys of either the SGA or Daesh.
    1. +7
      30 August 2016 10: 29
      the accession of Uzbekistan and the extermination of feudal lords of all calibers.


      Start today ... *) Will you "attach and destroy" while sitting on the couch, or at least gallop on a stool, with a plastic saber bald? *))
    2. +5
      30 August 2016 10: 33
      The only option acceptable for Russia is the annexation of Uzbekistan and the extermination of feudal lords of all calibers.


      hmm ... i.e. Do you propose the conquest of a neighboring state? Aren't you afraid of the consequences?
    3. +3
      30 August 2016 10: 33
      and you, apparently, the future president of your country ... and so easily give an order ... I wonder what makes you think that you are allowed to talk about joining an entire country?
      1. +7
        30 August 2016 10: 42
        everything is as usual here - euphoria from "Krymnash" and possibly burned vodka ... smile
    4. +4
      30 August 2016 11: 48
      You will not be forcibly sweet. Why should Russia lose its noble image, why should it capture someone in order to have another outbreak within the country. It is better to provide support to a neighbor, both moral, and financial, and power, if necessary, but it will be required and do not go to a fortuneteller! We need allies, not enemies.
    5. +1
      30 August 2016 13: 11
      Quote: ALEA IACTA EST
      The only option acceptable for Russia is the annexation of Uzbekistan and the extermination of feudal lords of all calibers.

      This is the only unacceptable option. Why should we join Uzbekistan? Isn't it easier to make an ally out of him?
      Quote: ALEA IACTA EST
      It is impossible to leave Central Asia to the Americans or local princes, who, at the first opportunity, become lackeys of either the SGA or Daesh.

      In the event that ISIS appears in Uzbekistan, it is possible to act as in Syria. And there is no need to capture Uzbekistan.
      1. 0
        30 August 2016 13: 50
        Why should we join Uzbekistan?

        Because otherwise
        ISIS will appear in Uzbekistan

        and will have to
        act like in Syria

        losing the best Russians in the war.
        Isn't it easier to make an ally out of him?

        Russia has two allies.
        1. +1
          30 August 2016 14: 54
          Quote: ALEA IACTA EST
          Because otherwise

          Russia now cannot join Uzbekistan for many reasons, of which the very first and simplest - we do not have common borders, moreover, the nearest point of Uzbekistan is located 600 km from the Russian Federation.
          However, the question is not worth it. Uzbekistan is not even a candidate for joining the EAEU. The maximum that Russia can achieve now is Uzbekistan’s entry into the EAEU, the necessary minimum is the continuation of Karimov’s policy.
          As for ISIS, its establishment in Uzbekistan is unlikely, much more dangerous if the Americans manage to provoke a "war of clans" and a battle for the redistribution of spheres of influence between the leaders in Uzbekistan.
        2. +3
          30 August 2016 15: 14
          ALEA IACTA EST

          Russia has two allies.


          Russia has two allies, many friends (including Uzbekistan), but many enemies ... *) One of the enemies is you, a person with the nickname ALEA IACTA EST. You vrazhin small of course, but unpleasant, I assure you ... *))
          1. 0
            30 August 2016 22: 36
            Directly removed from the tongue !! Plus
        3. 0
          31 August 2016 20: 31
          UzBaAgE! You’ll sort it out first with your problems, and there you will see.
    6. +1
      30 August 2016 22: 36
      Act as a provocateur, in no case does Russia need to annex either Uzbekistan or Tajikistan, nor any other camp nor any foreign territory at all. It is generally similar to death and very harmful for the country and people. We have our own underdeveloped territory, and why do we need Uzbekistan to invest a lot of money and effort there and then still turn out to be Russian invaders ?? No, thank God, people are more prudent in managing you :-)) and you either have painful nostalgia for the union, or it's just a provocation. So, gentlemen, the Uzbeks, don’t listen to him, no one will conquer you, and moreover, even if Uzbekistan himself suddenly asks for some reason to be accepted into the Russian Federation, nobody will accept him either! The Uzbeks have their own heads on their shoulders. Let them decide, but we only need mutually beneficial trade and calm, even relations at the state level.
      1. 0
        31 August 2016 14: 25
        Yeah ... ALEA IACTA EST, who were going to conquer there, sickly fool Bullshit ..

        What kind of provocation? negative

  8. The comment was deleted.
  9. +8
    30 August 2016 09: 20
    80 years is the age when Akela will no longer be able to keep the flock under her for a long time, and then the time for a free throne comes. What options are there? Some people name his daughter's candidacy, but this is unlikely - the East, after all. There is a cool bogeyman - an old regional committee member, the current prime minister.
    There is a formal second person on, hehe, the Constitution of Uzbekistan - the head of the Senate, the former prosecutor, the recent Minister of Justice, the newly appointed (in 2015) old khan - but who cares about the Constitution in Central Asia?
    And then there is the world of radical Islam, which will not sit as a poor relative in the corner at the moment when the crown rolled under the bench. With some degree of probability, an acute struggle for power is quite possible, which (not excluded) will be accompanied by a redistribution of influence in the Ferghana Valley - one of the most densely populated areas in Central Asia, the main granary there and the main water node of this arid region - the valley that is now divided between Uzbekistan, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan. I still remember well the bloody Ferghana pogroms of May - June 1989, when our combined detachment of the USSR Ministry of Internal Affairs VVS from Novosibirsk, together with units of VVs from other regions of the country, was urgently sent there to protect civilians, mainly Meskhetian Turks and Russians from Uzbek rioters. These events were openly nationalistic in nature, people were brutally killed precisely on a national basis. In technical events 103 people were killed, 1011 people were injured and injured, 137 servicemen of internal troops and 110 police officers were injured, one of them died; 757 residential buildings, 27 government facilities, 275 vehicles were burned and looted. By 1991, about 100 people were convicted of participating in the riots, and two were sentenced to death. True, some (the former first secretary of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of Uzbekistan Rafik Nishanov) then tried to pass off all this as a domestic conflict - they say they did not divide a plate of strawberries on the market.
    Today, Uzbekistan is the second, after Russia, state in the post-Soviet space, and about 1 million Russians live there. So, the issue of protecting their compatriots is not removed from the agenda.
    1. +5
      30 August 2016 09: 35
      In general, everything is written correctly, only 1 million Russians were 15-20 years ago, now it is much less. Although this is not a matter of numbers.
      1. +3
        30 August 2016 12: 24
        800 thousand are now Russian there. Plus, a certain number of Ukrainians and Belarusians, together in the region of 100 thousand.
    2. +2
      30 August 2016 15: 33
      Quote: demotivator
      These events were frankly nationalistic in nature.

      Key word "WEARED". During the years of independence, or rather in its first years, all types of discrimination on the basis of nationality, as well as on religious grounds and other grounds were completely suppressed in Uzbekistan. As a Russian, born in Uzbekistan, I have never come across manifestations of nationalism in my address.
  10. 0
    30 August 2016 09: 20
    80 years is the age when Akela will no longer be able to keep the flock under her for a long time, and then the time for a free throne comes. What options are there? Some people name his daughter's candidacy, but this is unlikely - the East, after all. There is a cool bogeyman - an old regional committee member, the current prime minister.
    There is a formal second person on, hehe, the Constitution of Uzbekistan - the head of the Senate, the former prosecutor, the recent Minister of Justice, the newly appointed (in 2015) old khan - but who cares about the Constitution in Central Asia?
    And there is also a world of radical Islam that will not sit as a poor relative in the corner the moment the crown rolls under the bench. With a certain degree of probability, an acute struggle for power is quite possible, which (not excluded) will be accompanied by a redistribution of influence in the Ferghana Valley - one of the most densely populated areas in Central Asia, the main granary there and the main water node of this arid region - the valley that is now divided between Uzbekistan, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan. I still remember the bloody Ferghana pogroms of May - June 1989, when our combined detachment of the USSR Ministry of Internal Affairs VVS from Novosibirsk, together with units of VVs from other regions of the country, was urgently sent there to protect civilians, mainly Meskhetian Turks and Russians from Uzbek rioters. These events were frankly nationalistic in nature, people were brutally killed precisely on a national basis. During those events, 103 people died, 1011 people were injured and injured, 137 military personnel of the internal troops and 110 police officers were injured, one of them died; 757 residential buildings, 27 state facilities, 275 vehicles were burned and looted. By 1991, about 100 people were convicted of participation in the riots, and two were sentenced to death. True, some (the former first secretary of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of Uzbekistan Rafik Nishanov) then tried to pass off all this as a domestic conflict - they say they did not divide a plate of strawberries on the market.
    Today, Uzbekistan is the second, after Russia, state in the post-Soviet space, and about 1 million Russians live there. So, the issue of protecting their compatriots is not removed from the agenda.
  11. +2
    30 August 2016 11: 08
    Another war is ensured. Now various Islamists, separatists, tribesmen from Afghanistan, neighboring Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan, and, naturally, carriers of democracy from the USA, will stir.
  12. +3
    30 August 2016 11: 40
    Oh, not at the right time! Another battlefield with the United States drew. The influence of the Yankees in Uzbekistan cannot be allowed. And then they will try to spoil there, they have such a nature - come, see and shit.
    1. +1
      30 August 2016 12: 23
      everything is fine, believe me. we don’t have to solve such problems. don’t think that everything will be so simple. we’ll still change our minds here
  13. +1
    30 August 2016 13: 04
    Karimov and our one misfortune is the lack of sons. Aliyev was lucky in this regard.
    1. 0
      30 August 2016 17: 27
      Yours has a slightly different problem. Daughters are already 3, just like King Lear. And each hypostasis of the parent. And of the son-in-law, the most brave one was probably Aidarchik, the topic quickly cut through and dumped, or maybe just a bruise wide not a comrade.

      Aliyev, as you know - not everyone is lucky.
  14. +1
    30 August 2016 13: 04
    A very important issue. Uzbekistan is a key republic of Central Asia, and the stability of the entire region depends on its stability. It is the largest in terms of population, with the most religious population, with many social problems, moreover, it has no common borders with China or Russia, but it has them with Afghanistan.
    In such conditions, it remains only to wish Karimov health. Although he is a typical perestroika degenerate, he is still a man of the old school, the "post-Soviet" leader on whose personality a lot rested.
    If, nevertheless, misfortune does happen, then for us (Russia) for the PRC, as well as for the people of Uzbekistan itself, in my opinion, it would be best to continue the "Karimov line" in the absence of any significant conflicts associated with the redistribution of influence. Mirziyayev looks preferable to the candidacy of Karimov's daughter.
    You can, of course, dream of such a candidate who would take a course on Uzbekistan’s entry into the EAEU, but it’s hard to say whether Russia has the resources to promote it.
    As for the United States, right now their influence in Uzbekistan is not so great, but they will certainly work. Specifically, they will try to arrange a "war of clans" and provoke social unrest in the capital or in the Fergana Valley (most likely using the moment of the elections as a trigger).
  15. +3
    30 August 2016 15: 01
    Dear comrades (and gentlemen, figs with you, to the heap) ... Boys and Girls .. *)

    Well, why in many of you is such a huge level of hmm ... "geopolitical horseshoe", coupled with tons of bile, please tell me? There are only the words of Nekrasov, - "A man like a bull: he’s going to wind up ... What a whim in his head -... You cannot knock her out with a stake: he’s restrained ... Everyone stands his ground!", - come to mind ... *) Let us, in order:

    1. There will be no war, in any case - Uzbekistan has a very stable political and economic system, and the life of one person, even the most senior, does not solve anything. And to hell with two people will climb the "barricades". We are not Ukrainians, thank God, to try to kill someone with or without reason, and just make noise.

    2. Religion in Uzbekistan does not play any role whatsoever in politics. In society - yes, but it is connected with the patriarchal way of life in our country, with the enormous role of customs and respect, sincere and genuine, to the elders. Moreover, this quality is grafted from young nails, so to speak. That is, the average Uzbek has an attitude to religion, it's just tribute to previous generations living on our earth, no more. We do not suffer from social nihilism, as in the West, and partly in Russia. We don’t turn religion into a fetish - as an example, we can take Russia, where the passion for Orthodoxy already borders on clericalism. With all this, we do not take an example from the Arabs, where Islam is politicized to the point that a person could face the death penalty for disrespect for religion. It is so with us - yes, even if you believe in a pot of manure on the windowsill, the main thing is that you don’t bother your neighbors with this faith.

    3. The Uzbek multi-ethnic society took place. Those who tryndit here about ethnic disagreements still live in the 80s, 90s, the very beginning of the 2000s. Wake up guys, ale ... *)) Here in Uzbekistan, for trying to discriminate on ethnic, social or religious grounds, they will be taken away by the very tonsils, so then you can not go to the ENT for about 20 years ... *)

    4. A person who made a lot of efforts to make Uzbekistan what it is now, got sick. And you, damn it, "analysts" are homegrown, a crowd here raised a howl, even stand, even fall. Yes, damn it, YOUR "forecasts" will come true (the data for these "forecasts", moreover, taken from the ceiling, or reflect all YOUR same deep phobias and complexes) - somehow we can do without them, believe me.

    I personally, I can wish him good health (if not everything is lost, I hope so). Other words, it will be possible to speak only when there is more information. But for any - stability and peace in Uzbekistan - will remain. And nefiga here to pry, how much in vain ... *)
    1. +1
      30 August 2016 20: 24
      There will be no war, in any case - Uzbekistan has a very stable political and economic system, and the life of one person, even the most senior, does not solve anything. And to hell with two people will climb the "barricades".

      At one time I heard this from Moldovans in Dubossary and Chisinau, from Armenians and Azerbaijanis, in 1992 I heard something similar from Georgians, and at the same time from ours (after Dudayev declared independence of Ichkeria, I heard from Ukrainians in the midst of the first Maidan (than the second ended, we all see). Do you consider yourself wiser than everyone ?? Well, well .....
      1. 0
        30 August 2016 21: 15
        I heard it from Moldavians in Dubossary and Chisinau, from Armenians and Azerbaijanis, in 1992 I heard something similar from Georgians


        Yes, for God's sake - heard and heard. It's just that apart from hearing, one should also learn to analyze. Just facts, a stubborn case. from 92nd to 2014th, the war swept from Dubossary and Pyanj to Gori and Donetsk. Have you even heard out of the corner of your ear that something similar happened in Uzbekistan? Yes, there were unrest, small, large. Andijan sample of 2005 can be remembered. The minor unrest of 2008 can also be remembered - which you have never heard of. There were breakthroughs from Afghanistan, Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan. Has anyone got up here in Uzbekistan, really so ... in an "adult" way? All this nonsense and abomination were crushed in the bud. During this time, in Uzbekistan, a normal, politically and relationally indifferent society was able to form, as well as a very powerful state apparatus, with excellent analysts.

        You see, comrade "analyst" - you leave the rumors to yourself, and give the facts, please. *** do not move the logs, man, believe me ... *)
  16. +2
    30 August 2016 16: 09
    Can a power vacuum be formed in Uzbekistan? Can
  17. 0
    30 August 2016 17: 32
    They transferred power in Azerbaijan and in Uzbekistan will also be transferred. But this shows only one thing - the stability of the autocratic regime, where everything is tied to one leader is very small. Yes, as long as the leader is alive and well, everything is fine, but it is worth loosening ...
    And this is one of the reasons why the West rules the planet - their system is more resistant to any shocks. Since there are mechanisms that contribute to the restoration of equilibrium.
  18. 0
    30 August 2016 19: 37
    Quote: de_monSher
    You there ... sort it out, for God's sake, as much as you want ...
    Don’t worry, we’ll figure it out with time ...
    1. 0
      30 August 2016 19: 52
      Don’t worry, we’ll figure it out with time ...


      Yes, I somehow do not worry, do not worry about me ... *))

      I just can’t say that I don’t care what will become of Ukraine, Donbass, and even with Russia - I have a lot of friends, acquaintances, relatives there. This is what makes me different from you, in fact - you, in essence, do not care what will become of my country - you just try and try here, relying on a false sense of "imperial superiority", having nothing to do with RI or the USSR. It's your "parochialism" just woke up, and sticks out ... *)
      1. 0
        30 August 2016 23: 08
        It’s good to kindle everyone, I think and you understand that people are different everywhere and it’s clear to us. I don’t know, I have never been to Uzbekistan, but I wish there was peace and tranquility and people thought of all geopolitics as little as possible, and as much as possible were happy, lived, walked, worked :-)!
  19. +2
    30 August 2016 19: 45
    Quote: Aposlya

    6
    Apostle Today, 10:42 ↑
    everything is as usual here - euphoria from "Krymnash" and possibly burned vodka ...

    Well, let's see when your Nazarbayev will cut the horses .... what fun you will start.
    1. +1
      30 August 2016 23: 10
      Che for wretched thinking? On some incomprehensible insult to wish evil to others .... what’s better for you? That is how losers think and only they. The strong ones love themselves, but they also do not wish harm to others. Change
  20. 0
    30 August 2016 20: 11
    - It's amazing how the death of one old Uzbek freaked everyone out ...
    - You can safely put the old man on a par with Saddam and Gaddafi ... he skillfully rules, he did not look very wide at his big neighbors, but, like everyone else, he was not forever! Maybe for the better?
  21. +1
    30 August 2016 20: 39
    Quote: de_monSher
    Don’t worry, we’ll figure it out with time ...


    Yes, I somehow do not worry, do not worry about me ... *))

    I just can’t say that I don’t care what will become of Ukraine, Donbass, and even with Russia - I have a lot of friends, acquaintances, relatives there. This is what makes me different from you, in fact - you, in essence, do not care what will become of my country - you just try and try here, relying on a false sense of "imperial superiority", having nothing to do with RI or the USSR. It's your "parochialism" just woke up, and sticks out ... *)

    I also don’t "give a fuck" as you put it, what will happen in Uzbekistan, just like you who have friends among Russians and Ukrainians, I have many friends and acquaintances among Uzbeks (who left for Chukotka from a good life in Uzbekistan).
    Pi.Si.I have always considered and still consider the USSR to be my country, therefore, at one time I took part in Transnistria and in the Donbass.
    And the sofa tryndun here we have one ..... and this is you.
    I have the honor.
    1. 0
      30 August 2016 21: 39
      And the sofa tryndun here we have one ..... and this is you.


      Nuuuu ... sofa tryndun, as you put it, this person who, like a jackal, starts to pull up during some events, in order to increase his ChSV. If you noticed, I’m trying to explain to such people nothing more than the essence of their deed.

      About your honor - she is yours, and only yours, do whatever you want with her - at least have it, throw it in the trash, but try to turn off arrogance when you talk about other countries, especially close neighbors. I personally, to Russia, do not arrogantly, if you notice ...

      And when you were in Dubossary, far enough from your country, I stuck out in Tajikistan - next to my country, and did everything so that what was happening in Tadizhkistan would not spread to my homeland.

      Something like this ... good luck to you ...
    2. 0
      30 August 2016 23: 13
      The USSR has long been gone, it is time to open our eyes and understand this. And it will not be, and it is beautiful. I don’t understand what Russia doesn’t like ... Nobody is bothering to be friends with neighbors! It’s better to go home from your communal apartment and go to visit each other, right? And more interesting and the toilet is not shared :-)
  22. 0
    30 August 2016 21: 20
    The man is still alive, and have already succumbed like hens! First, I wish him
    recovery and the faster, the better! Secondly, this is one of the most difficult republics, both politically and nationally, and of course we from Moscow cannot see all the subtleties and oriental nuances! The one who oversees
    this direction in Mead, of course, knows this and let's hope it will be balanced
    to solve problems!
  23. 0
    30 August 2016 22: 01
    The author is whining about the fact that God forbid, the United States will fit ..., is it full that the United States? This is the Chinese zone of influence, more than a draw. Neither Russia nor the USA have anything to do there.
    The same USA, which is pursuing its policy in the CAR: Afghanistan, Pakistan, Tajikistan ... Continue? And what about Uzbekistan's relations with Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan? This is a potential hole for drug trafficking, the Taliban and ISIS. If we pros..m Uzbekistan as well as Ukraine, then the consequences of the "Uzbek Maidan" may not survive. An "explosion" in Uzbekistan could overturn the entire security system in Central Asia with its CSTO, SCO, etc.
    1. 0
      30 August 2016 22: 13
      full of what are the US? This is the Chinese zone of influence, more than a draw.


      Uzbekistan, this is the zone of influence of Uzbekistan, more than a draw. You don’t have to squint your fingers here in an imperial manner. We have had, we have, and will have warm relations with Russia, only because we, unlike you, have a strong historical memory, and we still perceive Russia as our own people.

      But at the moment, trying to "pour" water into someone's one mill is a pleasure, to put it mildly, doubtful. Both the United States, Russia and China are "normal" capitalist countries, with "normal" imperial ambitions and appetites. So it is better not to build too "close relations" with you - first change the system within your country, for a fairer and not predatory one, then another matter. And so, FIG you, not the zone of influence of China. China has its own interests with us, and they will be respected if they do not run counter to the interests of Uzbekistan. The same applies to the United States, Russia and the European Union. If anything, Turkey is an example to you all - when in the 90s, 2000s, it tried to promote its line, in the form of Pan-Turkism, etc., got a pretty kick in the ass, and flew out with a whistle from Uzbekistan.
      1. 0
        30 August 2016 23: 18
        In your words, too, there is a lot of arrogance towards the Russians "we have a memory, you do not." Oh well. Now, if you say so, how do you demand a relationship in return? In general, there is such a thing that some citizens from countries from the former USSR for some reason suddenly began to show arrogance towards the Russians, why would it ... And most importantly, why?
        1. +2
          30 August 2016 23: 27
          In your words, too, a lot of arrogance towards Russians


          Find in my statements at least one word where I somehow disdainfully and arrogantly talked about some kind of "clan showdown in Russia", "our wars with not ours in Russia", "the conquest of Russia", etc. etc.

          As for the "historical memory", I turned DIRECTLY to the contingent of people with whom I was controversial. I apologize if it seemed otherwise.

          As for the USSR, I also grew up in it. My father is a military officer, and I was wandering around all the back streets of the old Empire. I have nostalgia, I will not argue, but at the same time there is an understanding that the USSR is no longer there. There are my wonderful friends, in St. Petersburg, in Kiev, in Lviv, in Murmansk, in Vladik, etc. etc. I am always glad to see them at my place, they are at my place.

          Like that...
          1. 0
            31 August 2016 00: 10
            If so, I support you completely. I don’t know who is talking about the conquest there, of course there are enough fools ... But do not take them seriously perhaps. I think that trade and mutual trips to visit are the keys to prosperity and friendship. Unfortunately, the Americans understand this very well, and it would be worthwhile for us to learn from them.
            1. +1
              31 August 2016 00: 18
              We are neighbors, historically. We ate more than one pood of salt together, and we will eat it - definitely, and with you, and with the Kazakhs, and Belarusians, and Tajiks, and with everyone else. As for the Americans, Uzbekistan and the USA have had about 20 years as strained relations. But even so, we did not quarrel strongly with them, and we do not quarrel.

              And about the statements, just if you are not lazy, read it. For example, the person who commented below, Lumumba, who simply and honestly cited the facts, and added nothing. "I came, looked, I didn't like it. The roads are almost d-e-r-l-m-o, service is absent, customs officers are boors," civilization "is almost absent", bare facts, without pathos ... But I don't know where he came from, probably from Nukus - in those places it is easy to get depressed ... so he was mistaken, because of this, in assessing that "the situation can be easily rocked" ... And customs officers, by the way, are excellent psychologists, like and the hucksters - they saw easy prey, with a touch of "civilization", well, they scoffed at their pleasure - we are still people ... *) And so - I just hate bombast, it pisses me off and that's it ...
      2. 0
        30 August 2016 23: 47
        I was in Uzbekistan last year. A very dull impression. The spirit of total desolation and devastation clearly hovers in the air.

        It began with being stripped to cowards at customs, forced to unblock the laptop (they were looking for porn), well, as they forced: guys go around, they clearly wave their guns. You will be very accommodating here.

        And finally, I stopped in Uzbekistan: Immediately after the transition, civilization ended. There is no electricity, there are no markings on the roads, there are no bumpers, there are no signs (were they handed over to metal or something?). After the border crossing, some muddy cedars emerged from the darkness, offered to exchange currency for local waste paper at a predatory rate. He refused, the remaining bucks were given to the booth for insurance on the car.

        They wanted to go to Samarkand, but then changed their minds (on the wheels of the keel and the reserve was poor), since there were no services or gas stations on the entire 400-kilometer stretch. And what has been abandoned since the days of the USSR is something like monuments. Once a local resident came across with a donkey and eggplant (they didn’t dare to fill this bourd in Lexus). The roads are good, still Soviet freeways, but they are good only because the climate is arid, and there is practically no one to go on them.

        Civilization in Uzbekistan ends immediately beyond the boundaries of a couple of large cities. Tajikistan lives by no means better; I happened to drive through all the former Soviet republics and compare.

        Rocking the situation in such a country is not just easy, but very easy. And the Uzbeks will slaughter each other, like the Tajiks at one time.
  24. 0
    31 August 2016 13: 10
    Dear: Aposlya, jeltman, de Mont Cher, do not pay attention to some couch experts: transitional age (an adult and a smart person thinks with his head), heat and as a result .....
    Ingvar, let me remind you: Benazir Bhuto is a woman and was the Prime Minister of Pakistan.
    Blizart is right: while Karimov is alive, a certain balance is maintained in the country, and as soon as he dies, the balance will be disturbed. In EVERY society there are people who hotzza grab an extra piece of the pie and the death of a leader like Karimov just plays into the hands of such "hunters"
  25. 0
    31 August 2016 16: 07
    Quote: Leto
    This is the Chinese zone of influence, more than a draw. Neither Russia nor the USA have anything to do there.

    There is no large Chinese business in Uzbekistan. There are no elites oriented towards China. In Central Asia, Chinese actions to increase influence are always perceived with tension. understand. that if China comes, the local peoples will "dissolve" and turn into ordinary Chinese. They look with interest at the development of infrastructure (the Great Silk Road), but as a way to cut money. In my opinion, this is the Chinese zone of influence and no one else's is far from true. Central Asia, especially Uzbekistan, is a large powder magazine due to Karimov's internal politics. But it is not beneficial for the world players to explode now, neither for us, nor for the Chinese (which is understandable in itself), nor for the States (in the near future), because in Afghanistan now the US troops and states need safe routes of supply and retreat. So everyone will have to look for how to amicably resolve the situation that has created, clearly not putting a spoke in the wheels, but rather looking for their own leverage over the new leader.
  26. 0
    1 September 2016 11: 10
    This moment has already been passed.
    The arrest of the prime minister put an end to this issue. And if this fact is not confirmed officially, then it means that everything has been done proactively and the applicants have no questions.
  27. 0
    1 September 2016 23: 05
    Well, do not touch Uzbekistan! Karimov is a peculiar personality ... but .... The Uzbeks and I have lived in the same country for more than one year ... not for ten years or even for a hundred years ... Have respect for this ancient people with their own traditions. Uzbeks, I respect you!

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