Can a power vacuum be formed in Uzbekistan?
Against the background of frankly scant official reports, more extensive information appears in other Uzbek information sources. In particular, the so-called People’s Movement of Uzbekistan (NDU) reports that the president of the republic suffered a stroke. At the same time, the NDU refers to its own sources in the government and adds that Karimov was hospitalized after a meeting with Uzbek Olympians and drinking alcohol.
Of messages:
In connection with the incident, Karimov was taken to government hospital No. XXUMX. After the course of intensive therapy by Uzbek doctors, doctors from Israel and the FRG were invited to Tashkent, who allegedly confirmed the dire state of the President of Uzbekistan, and that "everything will be decided by the next five days, during which anything can happen."
It turns out that the final conclusions on the state of health of Islam Karimov will be made no earlier than August 31, and this means that the President of the country is unlikely to be able to participate in events to celebrate the Independence Day of Uzbekistan.
To reflect on whether the absolute truth is what the source of the Popular Movement of Uzbekistan reports is essentially meaningless. Here, much more important is not the result of which Karimov was in the clinic, but the fact that he was in it, and not for the first time in recent times. It says that the health of the 78-year-old head of the Uzbek state is hard to say, to put it mildly, and that in Uzbekistan, with all due respect for the current president and the length of his tenure, the changes on the political Olympus are quite possible. And these possible changes are of interest, already because Karimov in the entire post-Soviet space is one of two (along with Kazakhstan’s President Nursultan Nazarbayev) political “long-livers” in the rank of president. Karimov has been the president of Uzbekistan since March 1990, when Uzbekistan was de jure still part of the USSR.
We need to wish Islam Karimov recovery. And yet it would not be too much to allow yourself to reflect on where Uzbekistan can go in the event of a change of its supreme leader, with whom the country has already grown together for 26 over the years, as they say.
Who do Central Asian political scientists currently see as likely “successors” to Islam Karimov?
If I may say so, the youngest daughter of the current President of the Republic of 38-year-old Lola Karimova-Tillyaeva is leading with a large margin. In the republic, Lola Karimova has a high public popularity, including due to the fact that she is the founder of charitable foundations, among which are a foundation from which funds are used to help orphans. In interviews, the daughter of the current head of Uzbekistan has repeatedly stated that the main way for the development of the country can and should be the development of the education system, culture and sports. She graduated from the University of International Economics and Diplomacy in Tashkent, as well as Tashkent State University. For some time she worked as a teacher, served as head of the Uzbekistan gymnastics federation, and later as deputy head of the Moscow State University branch in the republic. Currently is the representative of Uzbekistan to UNESCO.
From the official website of Lola Karimova-Tillyaeva:
However, Lola Karimova’s popularity in Uzbekistan and its focus on inter-civilizational dialogue may not be to the liking of various forces, and not only in Uzbekistan.
First, in the history of its independence, Uzbekistan is accustomed to the fact that at the helm of the state there is a person with a pronounced authoritarian essence, if he is used to dialogue with someone, it is exclusively from the position of understanding his actually monarchical role in the state. Moreover, Uzbekistan is a country with a prevailing Muslim community. All these factors within the country can hardly be put forward as supporting Lola Karimova, if only because she is a woman, and so far without obvious hints of the ability to take over all the power in the republic against the background of her frank secularism. Secondly, there is an external player who is ready to get into his own and not his own business. It's about the United States, for whom the very fact of establishing some kind of constructive dialogue between East and West is like a sharp knife. In the end, we can assume that if Lola Karimova eventually becomes the president of Uzbekistan, then she will obviously have to tighten her position, seek the loyalty of the security forces and seek support in foreign policy. Otherwise, they can sweep away both "their" and others. It is a painful tidbit of Central Asia, Uzbekistan, so that the “partners” would allow a person with humanistic and peacemaking views to sit at the helm of the country. They will obviously want to put either on their board, or simply arrange a bloody discord, as has already been (is) in many countries of the post-Soviet space and not only post-Soviet ...
Here, however, there is another important factor that, by definition, can not be overlooked. Lola Karimova-Tillyaeva herself has repeatedly stated that politics is not her path. Her way - social activities, family, help the needy.
But these statements were up to the complications of the father’s state of health, and now they may even ask Lola ... So to speak, popular appeal, all that.
The second likely candidate for the post of the future president of Uzbekistan is Prime Minister Shavkat Mirziyayev (Mirziyoyev). This person occupies the second most important post in the state for almost 13 years, which means that, by definition, he has the confidence of Islam Karimov. In Uzbekistan, he is considered the "Karimov's man", but at the same time they do not see in him the charisma that the president has in action. Although the question of charisma for the future president of Uzbekistan is open by definition. Who will be able to fully replace the “father of nations” for Uzbeks, what will the doctors say? ..
For obvious reasons, the question of possible elections is now actively begin to work out the opposition forces in the republic. Understanding that a supreme power vacuum can indeed be formed in the country, people who have been feeding on the same American grants for many years can easily rely on what it was done at one time in Georgia or in Ukraine - “the pursuit of democratic values”. Given the fact that millions of economically active citizens of Uzbekistan are outside of it, either in search of work or as those who have already found one, it can be assumed that there is a high probability that the campaign to “reorient” Uzbekistan to all the same “democratic values” among those who sees his life in Uzbekistan unsettled. It remains only to find the "faces of the democrats" - and the Uzbek Yatsenyuk, Turchinov and Tyagnibok can be found quickly. USAID conducted its work in the republic for a reason.
In such a situation, Russia clearly needs to work to ensure that at the helm of a large Central Asian country there are no persons like those who were brought to power in Ukraine by well-known forces. Receiving a territory of contention against the background of the threat of radicalism and terrorism also from the southern underbelly of Russia will become a truly unforgivable mistake, capable of leading to horrendous consequences both for Russia and for Central Asia.
- Alexei Volodin
- government.ru, Lola Karimova site
Information