International tension is growing, surpassing the acute periods of confrontation between the USSR and the USA. Many experts in Russia and abroad talk about the real threat of armed confrontation with NATO. Prerequisites occurred in Syria, in Ukraine, and in the zone of the Georgian-South Ossetian conflict in August 2008. If an armed confrontation is viewed as a potential one, then the economic war against Russia is fully fought. The scale of the sanctions exceeds the Western embargo against the USSR. But if the Soviet Union was almost a self-sufficient power, then Russia is to some extent dependent on foreign suppliers for the main part of the nomenclature of industrial products. Replacing foreign products with domestic ones is not possible even in the short term. The import substitution announced by the president is for the most part virtually failed.
An unprecedented scale acquired information war against Russia. The USSR was the leader of a global socialist project, an alternative to capitalism. One can argue about its effectiveness, but many countries have taken this path. And the Western world in the information confrontation with the USSR solved the problem of discrediting the idea, and not the country itself. Social homogeneity of society left minimal opportunities for initiating internal conflicts, including inter-ethnic ones. Today the situation is much more complicated - the country is divided according to property, social and national characteristics. Therefore, the edge of information weapons The West is directed against the peoples of Russia, to incite intergroup and interethnic hostility. At the same time, the country is no longer the leader of a global project, like the USSR, which determines its slave position in the ideological sphere, depriving it of the possibility of effective confrontation. The only thing we can offer the world is the protection of traditional values from clearly antisocial liberal projects. However, their accelerated implementation by Western elites may be slowed down and then Russia will lose this lever of influence on world public opinion. We do not have the ability to effectively confront in the information environment, in particular the cybernetic one, since geopolitical opponents dominate there, primarily the United States.
Entering the cold war, the USSR had a friendly social camp and sympathies of the common people of Europe and the USA. There were strong positions of the Communist Parties, which played a key role in the resistance of fascist Germany. All this, Russia today has not. The economic potential of the USSR was, according to various estimates, from 50 to 80 percent of the American. Today, Russian GDP is less than one tenth of that of the United States. The only trump card of our country is the nuclear potential, for the most part inherited from the USSR. However, this is not enough for a successful geopolitical confrontation.
Another important fact: in the American national security strategy, Russia is defined as one of the three most dangerous threats. This means that the United States openly called our country its adversary. I emphasize: not potential, but carrying an immediate threat. It is necessary to recognize the objective reality: Russia will not stand in the new cold war declared to it, if you do not rely on a reliable and powerful enough ally.
Ally selection
Let us dwell on the criteria by which one can single out a country capable of becoming a real support for Russia. The first is the absence of a conflict of interests, in particular strategic, at the current historical stage. The other is the existence of critical common tasks, especially survival. Indeed, if the two countries have one enemy that threatens their existence and development, they will most likely reject the remaining problems in the relationship and become reliable allies, at least until the final elimination of the threat. Another criterion by which a key ally in a serious fight is determined is its potential: economic and military. A weak partner is not a help, but a burden that diverts forces to protect him and generates additional threats. An important criterion is the sovereignty of the political and economic elites of a potential ally. The dependent top is not able to pursue a course that reflects the real interests of the people. She focuses on foreign "curators", which means that at any time she can begin to act in accordance with their instructions, even contrary to the needs of her country. Significant economic and scientific and technological sovereignty of a possible ally. Dependence on our country increases its reliability and, accordingly, its attractiveness in this capacity. Similar binding to a competitor, on the contrary, makes a potential partner less interesting. It should be noted as a criterion of the geo-strategic position of the candidate allies. The simplicity of organizing reliable communications between countries, spatial proximity to each other and to the theater of operations, the ability to mutually compensate for the weaknesses will be important factors in confrontation with external forces. Finally, pay attention to the complementarity of potentials. There are no perfect countries in the world with all the capabilities. If one of the parties has such a range of advantages that compensates for the weakness of the other and vice versa, this is a very attractive circumstance for reliable allied relations.
Based on these criteria, we consider potential allies of Russia. We note right away: we will look for the main one that could play a key role in the redistribution of the world that has begun. Traditionally in Russia there are three fundamental approaches to the choice of allies. First of all, Westerners are noted, who call for orientation towards Europe and the United States, Western civilization as a whole as a main ally and even “elder brother”. Supporters of the eastern vector advocate rapprochement with the countries of the Asia-Pacific region. Finally, supporters of self-reliance and the closest circle of former Soviet republics remain an influential group. Their slogan is “Russia has only two allies: the army and the navy”.
Westernization does not currently take place for one simple reason: the United States has already declared Russia its adversary and has unleashed a full-scale economic and information war against it; they are preparing, without worrying about secrecy, Moscow Maidan. The potential change of administration from a democratic to a republican is unlikely to change for American purposes with respect to Russia - methods and means can be transformed, but no more. European countries are critically dependent on the United States and transnational corporations: politically (through controlled elites), economically, military-technical and strategic (their forces in the absence of American support are incapable).
We also do not have to count on serious support from the CSTO allies. They are too weak militarily and economically to make a noticeable contribution to Russian efforts in cold confrontation with the West. In addition, some try, playing on global contradictions, to benefit, including in the personal interests of political elites. In any case, at critical moments Russia did not receive effective support from their side.
It remains eastward. Here we can only rely on China. And this country fully meets the above criteria.
Back to back
At the current historical stage, Russia and China have no sharp contradictions regarding the ideas about the desired world order - both countries uphold a multipolar model. We have a common main adversary claiming global domination. This is the United States, which openly declared Russia the main threat to its interests, and China - its main economic (and therefore geopolitical) competitor. Our countries have a powerful military and economic potential, significant political weight in the international arena and are able to provide each other real and effective assistance in confrontation with a powerful global center of power. The political elite of China is sovereign at least in defending the interests of their country, which has been repeatedly demonstrated. The current Russian elite (if not to count the “fifth column”), pursuing its goals on the international stage, to a significant extent protects the interests of the country as a way of strengthening its influence in the world. Both China and Russia are not self-sufficient economically, scientifically and technologically, but mutually complementary. In particular, the lack of raw material base in China is partly compensated by Russian resources, the absence or insufficient production of the necessary industrial nomenclature in Russia is compensated by supplies from China. Its lag behind the world level in military technologies is being filled by Russian developments. At the same time, the United States has repeatedly refused to China military-technological assistance, which brings us even closer. Beneficial for the emergence of allied relations and geostrategic position. Our countries cover Eurasia from the Atlantic to the Pacific, not only in the northern part of the latter (Kamchatka), but also in the south. Geostrategically, we are fighters, standing with their backs to each other and turned to face the enemy in opposite directions: China - to the east, and Russia - mainly to the west.In terms of material production, our country is not a competitor to the United States, especially to Western civilization as a whole. This weakness of Russia can be covered up by the economic power of China, which today officially takes the second place in the world or, according to other estimates, even the first place with a decent margin from the United States and in the near future is ready to surpass the total GDP of all Western civilization. The lack of sufficient reserves of raw materials for its developing economy, dependence on supplies from other regions of the world by sea communications controlled by the United States, is compensated by Russia's resources. It acts as China’s energy rear base. The lack of Russian general-purpose forces (with a population of about 800 thousand, the army cannot effectively solve the tasks of protecting national security across the entire spectrum of possible conflicts without the use of nuclear weapons) is leveled by a crowded and powerful PLA. And the limitations of the Chinese strategic nuclear forces (at this stage, about 60 carriers capable of reaching the territory of the United States) are compensated for by the powerful Russian strategic nuclear forces, which even in retaliation will cause unacceptable damage to the States. The insufficiently mature military-technological base of China is being strengthened by advanced Russian engineering design schools. The events of 2015 and 2016 showed the world that our weapon has only one competitor - America. All other countries are lagging far behind.
We are interested in ensuring each other’s survival. Thus, the defeat of China for Russia will mean that it is left alone with a completely hostile environment controlled by the United States both from the west and from the east. There is almost no chance of surviving in such conditions. In turn, the defeat of Russia will mean for China the beginning of the policy of its forceful strangulation by the United States, including relying on nuclear blackmail. After all, if the US missile defense is unable to neutralize the Russian numerous and high-tech nuclear potential even in the medium term, then the Chinese strategic nuclear forces, based on technologies of previous generations, will cope without difficulty. The attempt of China to occupy the territory of Siberia will be harshly suppressed by the United States by the threat, and possibly the selective use of strategic nuclear weapons. To allow China to acquire enormous resources and nuclear potential, based in this region, military technology and the Russian Pacific Fleet, America can not. With such a development of events, China will become so powerful that the United States will definitely relegate to second roles.
We state: Russia and China can and should become not just economic, but also military-political allies. Our leaders urge the West to abandon bloc politics. However, they do not pay any attention to it. The only military-political bloc in the world remained - NATO, which is only expanding. It's time to get rid of the illusions that our good intentions will stop Western expansion. An adequate response is the creation of a powerful Eurasian military-political bloc, the core of which can only be the Russian-Chinese alliance. It is necessary and sufficient for a successful confrontation with the West and its minions in the Asia-Pacific region.
The outlines of the new world
The creation of a Russian-Chinese military-political bloc will translate the world into a qualitatively different state. There will be a new bipolarity. Its core will no longer be ideological, but spiritual disengagement. The conflict of liberal values of permissiveness and traditional foundations of social construction, extreme individualism and a collectivist world outlook will escalate.
In the geopolitical sense, the classic confrontation of the continental mass of Eurasia and the outer crescent of marine spaces covering it: tellurocracy and thalassocracy. The zone of the main confrontation will be the inner crescent of the intermediate zone - rimland. These are North Africa, the Near and Middle East, Central and South-East Asia, and the Asia-Pacific region.
Around the poles of power - NATO and the Russian-Chinese Union (RCC) - regional communities will be built, formed on a bloc or bilateral basis. The spatial structure of the world will take on this form: the Eurasian core (the RCC and its closest allies), enveloped on both sides by trans-Atlantic and transatlantic partnerships hostile to it.
With the existing indicators, despite the diversity of assessments, sometimes mutually exclusive, it can be assumed that the RCC will be approximately twice as inferior in terms of integral economic indicators to competitors - the United States, European countries and their main allies in the Pacific (South Korea, Japan and Australia). But in terms of energy, the RCC at the expense of Russian resources is more self-sufficient than the West and its allies, who need significant supplies from other regions of the world, in particular the Middle East and North Africa. Although with the current state of affairs, China’s dependence on raw materials from this zone remains significant.
Both units will be technologically self-sufficient, at least militarily. This is largely achieved today. China and Russia are developing weapons of their Armed Forces based on their own developments (China makes extensive use of our know-how). The United States and NATO, their allies, rely on the American and partly European military technology base.
The total potential of the general purpose forces of the RCC Armed Forces will be comparable to the enemy’s similar indicator, yielding about 20 percent in quantitative and qualitative terms. But in the Ground Forces and the Air Force in the Far Eastern theater of operations and in the adjacent waters of the near sea zone, the CSW will surpass the United States, Japan and their allies. In the main part of the oceans, absolute superiority will remain with the naval forces of opponents. But in the near sea zone, especially within the reach of the fighter aviation coast-based, it is possible to achieve a local advantage of the CSF fleets.
In the field of strategic nuclear weapons, a certain parity will emerge: against the 1800 deployed RKS warheads, NATO adversaries have the order of 2900. In part, this imbalance is offset by the superiority of the RCC in tactical nuclear weapons. Here, against roughly 500 units of the American Arsenal, the RCN can expose 2500 warheads. However, we should not forget about the returnable nuclear potential of the United States.
The main strengths of the RCS are the potential possibility of ideological control of the people, their ability to sacrifice themselves, the coverage of the vast territories of Eurasia containing the main reserves of raw materials, significant human potential, and independence from maritime communications. Weaknesses - limited in comparison with the Western bloc information resource, as well as lower opportunities for the control of the seas and oceans, air, space and cyberspace.
The main strengths of the Western bloc include organization, dominance in the structures of international power and the information field of the planet, and control over sea and ocean communications. Weaknesses are high sensitivity to the loss of personnel and the unpreparedness of the population of these countries for war, as well as limited natural resources, territory, and human reserve.
Given the potential of the parties, a direct military clash between the RKS and the West is unlikely, if not impossible at all - there is no one willing to bring the matter to a nuclear conflict on either side. Therefore, armed confrontation will be of a mediated nature and take place mainly in the areas of collision of economic and geopolitical interests. Particularly fierce fighting can unfold in North Africa, the Middle East, Central Asia, the Asia-Pacific region, and individual countries of Latin America.
In the information sphere, the opposition of spiritual values of the liberal and traditionalist type with the projection of these contradictions to armed and economic confrontation by giving them an ideological and religious color will take an important place. The value conflict will become most acute in the space of the main subjects of this confrontation: China and Russia, on the one hand, and the United States and European countries, on the other.
It must be assumed that the economic struggle will become one of the most important tools for directly achieving the main geopolitical goal of the parties - defeating or weakening the enemy to the level at which he is forced to abandon his global project and agrees to the role proposed by the opponent.
The Russian-Chinese alliance, even without taking into account its potential and real supporters, will become the center of power equivalent to the West in the new bipolar model of the world order as an intermediate step towards building a full-fledged multi-polar structure in the interests of equal development of mankind.