Two rings - one end
For a long time, one of the main indicators of the situation in Syria was the state of affairs in the largest city in the north of the country - Aleppo. The defeat of Islamist groups in this province means a radical change in the war and the beginning of its gradual collapse, including because for its main organizers - Qatar, Turkey and Saudi Arabia it becomes absolutely unpromising.
It is indicative that the Chinese think tanks are following what is happening in Aleppo as closely as the American ones, and their conclusions deserve attention, based on the non-engagement of the PRC, which has no own interests in the Syrian confrontation and maintains a balance of relations with all parties to the conflict, including not only the states sponsoring Islamists, but also Iran and Russia. This article is dedicated to the Battle of Aleppo, based on the materials of the experts of IBI, M. V. Kazanin and Yu. B. Shcheglovina.
The estimates and calculations Chinese analysts
Analysts of the Academy of Social Sciences of China and representatives of Chinese intelligence services have been following the development of the situation around Aleppo since July 2012, when this city was partially surrendered by the Syrian army. Airplanes of the SAR Air Force could inflict only pinpoint ineffective strikes with outdated ammunition on the militants. According to Chinese experts, 25 – 27 thousands of militants were transferred to other regions of the country through Aleppo during the armed conflict in Syria. As for the current state of affairs in the city, according to information from the same source, from July 31 to August 9, during the period of active hostilities in the Aleppo area, the Syrian armed forces and anti-government groups suffered significant casualties.
According to estimates by PLA military intelligence analysts, anti-Assad forces from 15 different groups gathered from five to seven thousand militants to unload transport arteries in the Aleppo region, but counterattack attempts were unsuccessful primarily due to the active fire support of Russian government forces aviation. Fighters and bombers of the Russian Federation provide Assad Army units with "surgical" accurate assistance. Plus, the Tu-22M3 strategic bombers over the past two weeks have inflicted powerful attacks on Islamist targets, which makes their commanders be wary of ground operations in other directions. In addition, the states sponsoring the detachments of Assad’s opponents set different tasks for their wards, which reduces the level of coordination of their actions on the ground.
According to the Institute of Contemporary International Relations of the People's Republic of China, the role of Ankara is especially great in the situation around Aleppo. In the city there are several hundred "volunteers" - military units of special forces of the Turkish Armed Forces. Probably, as a result of the bombing, the Turks lost only about a hundred people killed. Chinese analysts also make certain conclusions from the fact that most of the demands for organizing a long-term truce and opening more than at present the number of humanitarian corridors comes to Russia from representatives of the United States, Great Britain and France. This suggests the presence of military advisers or intelligence officers from these countries in Aleppo, who established interaction with a number of Islamist groups in Syria.
According to observers from the PRC, in the past six months, food shortages and medicines have been affecting Aleppo. All seven city hospitals have stopped providing care to the sick and wounded. The Red Cross and Red Crescent channels report that the remaining population in the city is starving, since the groups controlling Aleppo have set extremely high prices for food supplied through Iraq and Turkey. Funds received for the sale of products go into service, ammunition and wages to militants. At the same time, one of the main Islamist ammunition depots is located in Aleppo, through which anti-tank weapons, mortar shots and other weapons were distributed for troops of the Islamic State (IG) and Dzhebhat Fath ash-Sham banned in Russia. According to the PRC, over the past two years, militants in Syria have received from Qatar, Saudi Arabia and Turkey weapons and ammunition totaling more than 1,15 a billion pounds.
The existence and growth of Islamist groups, according to Chinese analysts, is due to the low intensity of the actions of the Western coalition, which has attacked IG infrastructure objects for several years, resulting in more civilians dying than militants. In the PLA, they note: in the presence of five air bases - Al Dhafra (UAE), Al Udeid (Qatar), Isa (Bahrain), Ali al-Salem (Kuwait) and Incirlik (Turkey) piloted and unmanned aircraft of western countries are capable of delivering several hundred air strikes per day against militant positions and infrastructure. The US Navy could be more intensively attracted to carrier-based strike groups that regularly maintain combat duty in the Persian Gulf and the Mediterranean.
The PLA also points to the extremely low effectiveness of the modern reconnaissance-strike UAVs MQ-1 Predator and MQ-9 Reaper, which act in the interests of the Joint Special Operations Command (OXO) created in the United States to detect and destroy terrorists anywhere in the world. The OXO staff consists of the CIA’s counter-terrorism staff and CSCO officers. It is noted that the UAVs use rocket-bomb weapons only in 20 percent of sorties, however, over the entire time of their use, more than 1500 civilians have died, and the losses of the militants have not exceeded a thousand. At the same time, the Western media are engaged in misinformation about the "erroneous air strikes of the Russian Aerospace Forces" against civilians in Syria. "
Chinese experts believe that the intensive work of the Russian Aerospace Forces will allow the Syrian armed forces to deal effectively with the militants. They note that the Russian and Syrian special services need to make more efforts to block the channels of supply of weapons and ammunition to Islamist groups, and also should strictly adhere to plans for a humanitarian operation in the Aleppo area.
Media publications in the PRC state that the recent loss of the Russian Mi-8 helicopter is the result of actions by groups that receive technical assistance and information from the special services of the United States. Chinese military analysts point out that the US Air Force UAVs conduct reconnaissance against the Russian military for most of the time, which has led to a number of successful operations by militants against the Russian Aerospace Forces, specialists and advisers from our country.
Separation on the battlefield
After a week-long offensive, supporters of Dzhebhat Fath al-Sham (formerly Dzhebkhat al-Nusra), at the cost of enormous losses, managed on August 8 to capture the complex of the military engineering school near the Rasmus intersection. This allowed the corridor (about a kilometer 6) to the besieged Islamists in the eastern areas of Aleppo and to block the main road through which reinforcements and ammunition flow into Syrian government forces in the western part of the city. Thus, two rings were formed. In one are the government forces, in the second - the Islamists. But these rings are conditional, especially the one in which government forces. It is impossible to call the functioning of the corridor in the eastern regions of Aleppo sustainable - it is shot through by Syrian troops. The transfer of significant reinforcements and ammunition through it is impossible, the position of the surrounded militants remains unenviable.
9 August Syrian troops and their allies managed to regain control of the height of Tell-Snowbarat in the south of Aleppo, cutting off militants from the corridor to the eastern districts of the city, Al-Manar TV station reported. According to her, the artillery is firing at the enemy, not allowing him to approach the outskirts of Rasmus. According to American intelligence, the corridor was not completely closed, but after the height was captured, movement along it was impossible. At the same time, the Americans are fixing the concentration of militants in the south-east direction from Aleppo, which implies their preparation for a new offensive. In addition, troops of the “Islamic State” are hanging over the city from the north, which can enter into a temporary alliance with Dzhebhat Fath ash-Sham.
It follows from this that the main military task today is to establish stable control over the logistic corridor near Rasmus with the solution of the maximum problem - to return Assad's forces to the control of the military engineering school complex. It is necessary at least to maintain the level of fire impact on the line of contact and in the close rear of the Islamists, not allowing them to concentrate their forces for a new offensive. The gradual advancement of certain groups of government forces into the depths of East Aleppo should begin from different directions with the support of artillery and tanks. This will not allow the enemy besieged in this area to support the offensive Islamists attacking from outside. In this scenario, the participation of Russian strategic aviation in delivering carpet airstrikes outside Aleppo to the main centers of militant gatherings in both the near and far rear can play a decisive role in disrupting the plans of the Islamists to launch a new offensive.
Additional forces of the Assad allies are now concentrated in Aleppo - Hezbollah militants from the Radwan Division elite unit, Iraqi militiamen from Harakat al-Nujaba and Palestinians from the Al-Quds Brigade. The Syrian government forces are also being pulled up - the 15 th battalion of special forces, the Tiger unit and parts of the 4 armored division. This indicates the preparation of a counterattack, the purpose of which will be the maximum distance of enemy forces from the southeast. US military intelligence assesses the situation for the anti-Assad forces as extremely alarming.
RUMO analysts believe that the militants will not succeed in developing a strategic initiative that was intercepted after 6 in August due to losses, depletion of reserves, Ankara’s dual position after the coup and agreements with Russia (today the flow of material and technical assistance from Turkish territory has decreased, and the militants are mainly use the arsenals previously accumulated in Idlib, which weakens the defense of this province), as well as the overwhelming advantage of government forces in firepower. A new attempt to attack can cost the Islamists not only in manpower, but also all military equipment and artillery. To fill this deficit in the current conditions will be unrealistic.
The Americans believe that the main task facing the Islamists is to maintain the image of the “only advocate” of the Sunni population of Aleppo, which gives them an inflow of human reserves. At the same time, Washington has no opportunity to effectively separate the united front of the opponents of the Assad regime into “terrorists” and “moderates”, which remains the most vulnerable point of the US policy in the Syrian direction. The main threat to the success of Assad’s success in Aleppo remains the campaign initiated by the Americans and the French in the UN to declare an 48 hourly humanitarian pause for bringing food, repairing electricity grids and plumbing, etc. In the case of this scenario, the forces of Islamists regroup and support them the population will receive an impulse to refuse to leave Aleppo.
For the dialogue between Ankara and Damascus
The crisis in Syria cannot be resolved by purely military means. This is predetermined both by the demographic-confessional disproportion in the country, and by the course of the Sunni-Shiite confrontation in the Muslim world. The targeted support of the main sponsors of the Islamist Sunni movement in Syria in the face of the Saudis, Qatar and Turkey will continue. The vulnerable link in the alliance is Ankara, which, against the background of improved Russian-Turkish relations and cooling with the West, will show flexibility in Syria in accordance with the political situation. The main means of influencing the position of Ankara remains the Kurdish factor. It is important not only to support the people's self-defense units fighting against the Islamists in Syria, but also the position of Russia to resume the supply of contraband oil from Iraqi Kurdistan to Turkey, in which Erdogan’s entourage is concerned.
Among other things, it is extremely undesirable for Ankara to strengthen Tehran in the Kurdish autonomy of Iraq with the prospect of the departure of Erdogan’s main ally in this region, President M. Barzani, to the opposition. The dialogue with Ankara on the Syrian conflict should be built with an eye to the need to end support for “Dzhebhat al-Nusra”, renamed “Dzhebhat Fath al-Sham”. The allegations of Assad and the Russian Aerospace Forces of Russia from the bombardment of positions of pro-Turkish groups not compromised by participation in jihadist atrocities are possible. In the future, we can talk about the incorporation of pro-Turkish moderate political figures in the state-administrative structures of Syria. It is reasonable to give the initiative in building the architecture of power in Syria in terms of participation in it of pro-Turkish figures and working out a compromise on this issue in the hands of Ankara and Damascus, while preserving the role of Moscow as the main mediator. In this case, the Qatari-Saudi support for anti-Assad forces will fall by several times, if not by an order of magnitude, good, there is a contradiction between the Saudi Muslims and the Muslim Brotherhood in the political life of the Islamic world, their alliance is temporary and dictated solely by common interests in the Syrian direction. . The points of contact between Ankara and Damascus are the separatist ambitions of the Kurds and the impossibility for Turkey of living in the conditions of the Kurdish and leftist terror.
Military actions against the Islamists should have the ultimate goal of creating conditions for the resumption of negotiations from the standpoint of the advantages of Damascus and Moscow. In this regard, American experts close to the Pentagon, assess the battle for Aleppo as a key from the point of view of the prospects for the influence of the opposition in the negotiation process and its ability to act on equal terms with Damascus. It is this thesis that determines the position of the US and the EU (primarily France) regarding the fall of East Aleppo. They strive at all costs to preserve Sunni resistance, even jihadist, as a real self-sufficient force. At the same time, they proceed from the idea of deterring Iranian influence throughout the Middle East.
The checks system that the US violated by overthrowing S. Hussein in Iraq is rebuilt by Washington. This, among other things, explained the deal on the Iranian nuclear program. The capture of Aleppo leads to a turning point in the campaign, sharply increasing the chances of Assad to remain in power. This scenario does not suit the US and the EU due to the increasing influence of Russia and Iran in the region. Hence, Washington’s attempts to freeze the situation in Syria before the arrival of the new administration.
In this situation it is necessary:
continue fighting near Aleppo with the gradual ousting of the Islamists from the city. The capture of Aleppo and its environs will seriously complicate the logistics of Dzhebhat an-Nusra (whatever its name) in Idlib. It is reasonable to use militant attempts to storm Aleppo to exhaust them under fire, including the use of Russian strategic aviation. Taking advantage of the concentration of militants near Aleppo, oust them from their positions in Latakia, Hama, Homs and Deir ez-Zore, while simultaneously controlling the possible concentration of IG supporters under Palmyra using aviation;
It is important to block UN attempts to put into practice long humanitarian pauses in favor of militants with an emphasis on resolving the crisis in Aleppo exclusively during a humanitarian operation conducted by Russia. At the same time, hostilities should not stop and it is necessary to be ready for a mass exodus of civilians from Aleppo, which will require the involvement of the UN in work in refugee camps and the organization of humanitarian interventions;
continue cooperation with the Kurds in the north of Syria to expand their zones of influence along the perimeter of the Turkish border to strengthen the "security buffer", which will create a barrier to the logistical support of the militants. In Syria, in contrast to Afghanistan, the government army can not be used for such purposes. At the same time, it is necessary to work with Turkey to minimize its participation in the supply of the Islamists and encourage Damascus and Ankara to engage in direct dialogue. Achieving a compromise between them is the most optimal way out of the crisis;
to provide the United States with the opportunity to act in and around Raqq, given that the formal taking of this city is the main task of the outgoing US administration. About other geopolitical things there now do not think. Obama has to go "strong president", and the success of the government forces under Aleppo and the failure of the Americans under Raqca level this picture;
continue the diplomatic pressure on the Syrian opposition’s patrons, demanding from them the separation of anti-Assad forces into terrorists and “moderates”, bearing in mind that the United States cannot do it either by virtue of the imminent presidential elections or with the aim of solving the main task of preserving the Sunni military potential resistance;
to conduct the justified practice of agreements with tribal groups and clans for joining the truce.
When conducting negotiations or military actions, implementing economic projects and conducting cultural intervention outside Russia, we should not forget that ultimately the goal of this is to take the most advantageous, optimally, strategic positions for a country with minimal costs, not to the detriment of its relations with partners. In Syria, the situation is built that way, but so far it is only being built.
It is indicative that the Chinese think tanks are following what is happening in Aleppo as closely as the American ones, and their conclusions deserve attention, based on the non-engagement of the PRC, which has no own interests in the Syrian confrontation and maintains a balance of relations with all parties to the conflict, including not only the states sponsoring Islamists, but also Iran and Russia. This article is dedicated to the Battle of Aleppo, based on the materials of the experts of IBI, M. V. Kazanin and Yu. B. Shcheglovina.
The estimates and calculations Chinese analysts
Analysts of the Academy of Social Sciences of China and representatives of Chinese intelligence services have been following the development of the situation around Aleppo since July 2012, when this city was partially surrendered by the Syrian army. Airplanes of the SAR Air Force could inflict only pinpoint ineffective strikes with outdated ammunition on the militants. According to Chinese experts, 25 – 27 thousands of militants were transferred to other regions of the country through Aleppo during the armed conflict in Syria. As for the current state of affairs in the city, according to information from the same source, from July 31 to August 9, during the period of active hostilities in the Aleppo area, the Syrian armed forces and anti-government groups suffered significant casualties.
According to estimates by PLA military intelligence analysts, anti-Assad forces from 15 different groups gathered from five to seven thousand militants to unload transport arteries in the Aleppo region, but counterattack attempts were unsuccessful primarily due to the active fire support of Russian government forces aviation. Fighters and bombers of the Russian Federation provide Assad Army units with "surgical" accurate assistance. Plus, the Tu-22M3 strategic bombers over the past two weeks have inflicted powerful attacks on Islamist targets, which makes their commanders be wary of ground operations in other directions. In addition, the states sponsoring the detachments of Assad’s opponents set different tasks for their wards, which reduces the level of coordination of their actions on the ground.
According to the Institute of Contemporary International Relations of the People's Republic of China, the role of Ankara is especially great in the situation around Aleppo. In the city there are several hundred "volunteers" - military units of special forces of the Turkish Armed Forces. Probably, as a result of the bombing, the Turks lost only about a hundred people killed. Chinese analysts also make certain conclusions from the fact that most of the demands for organizing a long-term truce and opening more than at present the number of humanitarian corridors comes to Russia from representatives of the United States, Great Britain and France. This suggests the presence of military advisers or intelligence officers from these countries in Aleppo, who established interaction with a number of Islamist groups in Syria.
According to observers from the PRC, in the past six months, food shortages and medicines have been affecting Aleppo. All seven city hospitals have stopped providing care to the sick and wounded. The Red Cross and Red Crescent channels report that the remaining population in the city is starving, since the groups controlling Aleppo have set extremely high prices for food supplied through Iraq and Turkey. Funds received for the sale of products go into service, ammunition and wages to militants. At the same time, one of the main Islamist ammunition depots is located in Aleppo, through which anti-tank weapons, mortar shots and other weapons were distributed for troops of the Islamic State (IG) and Dzhebhat Fath ash-Sham banned in Russia. According to the PRC, over the past two years, militants in Syria have received from Qatar, Saudi Arabia and Turkey weapons and ammunition totaling more than 1,15 a billion pounds.
The existence and growth of Islamist groups, according to Chinese analysts, is due to the low intensity of the actions of the Western coalition, which has attacked IG infrastructure objects for several years, resulting in more civilians dying than militants. In the PLA, they note: in the presence of five air bases - Al Dhafra (UAE), Al Udeid (Qatar), Isa (Bahrain), Ali al-Salem (Kuwait) and Incirlik (Turkey) piloted and unmanned aircraft of western countries are capable of delivering several hundred air strikes per day against militant positions and infrastructure. The US Navy could be more intensively attracted to carrier-based strike groups that regularly maintain combat duty in the Persian Gulf and the Mediterranean.
The PLA also points to the extremely low effectiveness of the modern reconnaissance-strike UAVs MQ-1 Predator and MQ-9 Reaper, which act in the interests of the Joint Special Operations Command (OXO) created in the United States to detect and destroy terrorists anywhere in the world. The OXO staff consists of the CIA’s counter-terrorism staff and CSCO officers. It is noted that the UAVs use rocket-bomb weapons only in 20 percent of sorties, however, over the entire time of their use, more than 1500 civilians have died, and the losses of the militants have not exceeded a thousand. At the same time, the Western media are engaged in misinformation about the "erroneous air strikes of the Russian Aerospace Forces" against civilians in Syria. "
Chinese experts believe that the intensive work of the Russian Aerospace Forces will allow the Syrian armed forces to deal effectively with the militants. They note that the Russian and Syrian special services need to make more efforts to block the channels of supply of weapons and ammunition to Islamist groups, and also should strictly adhere to plans for a humanitarian operation in the Aleppo area.
Media publications in the PRC state that the recent loss of the Russian Mi-8 helicopter is the result of actions by groups that receive technical assistance and information from the special services of the United States. Chinese military analysts point out that the US Air Force UAVs conduct reconnaissance against the Russian military for most of the time, which has led to a number of successful operations by militants against the Russian Aerospace Forces, specialists and advisers from our country.
Separation on the battlefield
After a week-long offensive, supporters of Dzhebhat Fath al-Sham (formerly Dzhebkhat al-Nusra), at the cost of enormous losses, managed on August 8 to capture the complex of the military engineering school near the Rasmus intersection. This allowed the corridor (about a kilometer 6) to the besieged Islamists in the eastern areas of Aleppo and to block the main road through which reinforcements and ammunition flow into Syrian government forces in the western part of the city. Thus, two rings were formed. In one are the government forces, in the second - the Islamists. But these rings are conditional, especially the one in which government forces. It is impossible to call the functioning of the corridor in the eastern regions of Aleppo sustainable - it is shot through by Syrian troops. The transfer of significant reinforcements and ammunition through it is impossible, the position of the surrounded militants remains unenviable.
9 August Syrian troops and their allies managed to regain control of the height of Tell-Snowbarat in the south of Aleppo, cutting off militants from the corridor to the eastern districts of the city, Al-Manar TV station reported. According to her, the artillery is firing at the enemy, not allowing him to approach the outskirts of Rasmus. According to American intelligence, the corridor was not completely closed, but after the height was captured, movement along it was impossible. At the same time, the Americans are fixing the concentration of militants in the south-east direction from Aleppo, which implies their preparation for a new offensive. In addition, troops of the “Islamic State” are hanging over the city from the north, which can enter into a temporary alliance with Dzhebhat Fath ash-Sham.It follows from this that the main military task today is to establish stable control over the logistic corridor near Rasmus with the solution of the maximum problem - to return Assad's forces to the control of the military engineering school complex. It is necessary at least to maintain the level of fire impact on the line of contact and in the close rear of the Islamists, not allowing them to concentrate their forces for a new offensive. The gradual advancement of certain groups of government forces into the depths of East Aleppo should begin from different directions with the support of artillery and tanks. This will not allow the enemy besieged in this area to support the offensive Islamists attacking from outside. In this scenario, the participation of Russian strategic aviation in delivering carpet airstrikes outside Aleppo to the main centers of militant gatherings in both the near and far rear can play a decisive role in disrupting the plans of the Islamists to launch a new offensive.
Additional forces of the Assad allies are now concentrated in Aleppo - Hezbollah militants from the Radwan Division elite unit, Iraqi militiamen from Harakat al-Nujaba and Palestinians from the Al-Quds Brigade. The Syrian government forces are also being pulled up - the 15 th battalion of special forces, the Tiger unit and parts of the 4 armored division. This indicates the preparation of a counterattack, the purpose of which will be the maximum distance of enemy forces from the southeast. US military intelligence assesses the situation for the anti-Assad forces as extremely alarming.
RUMO analysts believe that the militants will not succeed in developing a strategic initiative that was intercepted after 6 in August due to losses, depletion of reserves, Ankara’s dual position after the coup and agreements with Russia (today the flow of material and technical assistance from Turkish territory has decreased, and the militants are mainly use the arsenals previously accumulated in Idlib, which weakens the defense of this province), as well as the overwhelming advantage of government forces in firepower. A new attempt to attack can cost the Islamists not only in manpower, but also all military equipment and artillery. To fill this deficit in the current conditions will be unrealistic.
The Americans believe that the main task facing the Islamists is to maintain the image of the “only advocate” of the Sunni population of Aleppo, which gives them an inflow of human reserves. At the same time, Washington has no opportunity to effectively separate the united front of the opponents of the Assad regime into “terrorists” and “moderates”, which remains the most vulnerable point of the US policy in the Syrian direction. The main threat to the success of Assad’s success in Aleppo remains the campaign initiated by the Americans and the French in the UN to declare an 48 hourly humanitarian pause for bringing food, repairing electricity grids and plumbing, etc. In the case of this scenario, the forces of Islamists regroup and support them the population will receive an impulse to refuse to leave Aleppo.
For the dialogue between Ankara and Damascus
The crisis in Syria cannot be resolved by purely military means. This is predetermined both by the demographic-confessional disproportion in the country, and by the course of the Sunni-Shiite confrontation in the Muslim world. The targeted support of the main sponsors of the Islamist Sunni movement in Syria in the face of the Saudis, Qatar and Turkey will continue. The vulnerable link in the alliance is Ankara, which, against the background of improved Russian-Turkish relations and cooling with the West, will show flexibility in Syria in accordance with the political situation. The main means of influencing the position of Ankara remains the Kurdish factor. It is important not only to support the people's self-defense units fighting against the Islamists in Syria, but also the position of Russia to resume the supply of contraband oil from Iraqi Kurdistan to Turkey, in which Erdogan’s entourage is concerned.
Among other things, it is extremely undesirable for Ankara to strengthen Tehran in the Kurdish autonomy of Iraq with the prospect of the departure of Erdogan’s main ally in this region, President M. Barzani, to the opposition. The dialogue with Ankara on the Syrian conflict should be built with an eye to the need to end support for “Dzhebhat al-Nusra”, renamed “Dzhebhat Fath al-Sham”. The allegations of Assad and the Russian Aerospace Forces of Russia from the bombardment of positions of pro-Turkish groups not compromised by participation in jihadist atrocities are possible. In the future, we can talk about the incorporation of pro-Turkish moderate political figures in the state-administrative structures of Syria. It is reasonable to give the initiative in building the architecture of power in Syria in terms of participation in it of pro-Turkish figures and working out a compromise on this issue in the hands of Ankara and Damascus, while preserving the role of Moscow as the main mediator. In this case, the Qatari-Saudi support for anti-Assad forces will fall by several times, if not by an order of magnitude, good, there is a contradiction between the Saudi Muslims and the Muslim Brotherhood in the political life of the Islamic world, their alliance is temporary and dictated solely by common interests in the Syrian direction. . The points of contact between Ankara and Damascus are the separatist ambitions of the Kurds and the impossibility for Turkey of living in the conditions of the Kurdish and leftist terror.
Military actions against the Islamists should have the ultimate goal of creating conditions for the resumption of negotiations from the standpoint of the advantages of Damascus and Moscow. In this regard, American experts close to the Pentagon, assess the battle for Aleppo as a key from the point of view of the prospects for the influence of the opposition in the negotiation process and its ability to act on equal terms with Damascus. It is this thesis that determines the position of the US and the EU (primarily France) regarding the fall of East Aleppo. They strive at all costs to preserve Sunni resistance, even jihadist, as a real self-sufficient force. At the same time, they proceed from the idea of deterring Iranian influence throughout the Middle East.
The checks system that the US violated by overthrowing S. Hussein in Iraq is rebuilt by Washington. This, among other things, explained the deal on the Iranian nuclear program. The capture of Aleppo leads to a turning point in the campaign, sharply increasing the chances of Assad to remain in power. This scenario does not suit the US and the EU due to the increasing influence of Russia and Iran in the region. Hence, Washington’s attempts to freeze the situation in Syria before the arrival of the new administration.
In this situation it is necessary:
continue fighting near Aleppo with the gradual ousting of the Islamists from the city. The capture of Aleppo and its environs will seriously complicate the logistics of Dzhebhat an-Nusra (whatever its name) in Idlib. It is reasonable to use militant attempts to storm Aleppo to exhaust them under fire, including the use of Russian strategic aviation. Taking advantage of the concentration of militants near Aleppo, oust them from their positions in Latakia, Hama, Homs and Deir ez-Zore, while simultaneously controlling the possible concentration of IG supporters under Palmyra using aviation;
It is important to block UN attempts to put into practice long humanitarian pauses in favor of militants with an emphasis on resolving the crisis in Aleppo exclusively during a humanitarian operation conducted by Russia. At the same time, hostilities should not stop and it is necessary to be ready for a mass exodus of civilians from Aleppo, which will require the involvement of the UN in work in refugee camps and the organization of humanitarian interventions;
continue cooperation with the Kurds in the north of Syria to expand their zones of influence along the perimeter of the Turkish border to strengthen the "security buffer", which will create a barrier to the logistical support of the militants. In Syria, in contrast to Afghanistan, the government army can not be used for such purposes. At the same time, it is necessary to work with Turkey to minimize its participation in the supply of the Islamists and encourage Damascus and Ankara to engage in direct dialogue. Achieving a compromise between them is the most optimal way out of the crisis;
to provide the United States with the opportunity to act in and around Raqq, given that the formal taking of this city is the main task of the outgoing US administration. About other geopolitical things there now do not think. Obama has to go "strong president", and the success of the government forces under Aleppo and the failure of the Americans under Raqca level this picture;
continue the diplomatic pressure on the Syrian opposition’s patrons, demanding from them the separation of anti-Assad forces into terrorists and “moderates”, bearing in mind that the United States cannot do it either by virtue of the imminent presidential elections or with the aim of solving the main task of preserving the Sunni military potential resistance;
to conduct the justified practice of agreements with tribal groups and clans for joining the truce.
When conducting negotiations or military actions, implementing economic projects and conducting cultural intervention outside Russia, we should not forget that ultimately the goal of this is to take the most advantageous, optimally, strategic positions for a country with minimal costs, not to the detriment of its relations with partners. In Syria, the situation is built that way, but so far it is only being built.
Information