A chain of pre-escalation events in LDNR and the Republic of Crimea prepares us for a big war.
In the photo 152-mm towed howitzer 2A65 "Msta-B" 10-th artillery brigade LNR
In early July, we prepared extensive material on the situation on the fronts of the yet unrecognized Donetsk and Lugansk People's Republics. It was then that the pre-escalation turmoil on the line of demarcation between the territories controlled by Kiev, as well as New Russia, rushed along the increasing line. It all started with provocative mortar self-shelling by the formations of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on the outskirts of Mariupol, accompanied by disturbing fire at the frontline settlements of the DPR in Azov region - Sakhanka and Cominternovo. The Ukrainian X-NUMX battery of D-122 howitzers, deployed in Vodyanom, opened fire on residential areas of the Comintern on July 30 in 10: 22, temporarily depriving the residents of the village of electricity and gas supply. In the first days of August, these "shootings" turned into real reconnaissance in force and artillery preparations of the junta's troops. The daily number of artillery and mortar shells fired at the territories of the republics increased from a few dozen to 00. This is the figure that was voiced by the DPR MO for 872 August 2.
During the last round of Minsk consultations on resolving the conflict in Donbass, the Ukrainian side completely abstracted from fulfilling any obligations to divert artillery systems and MLRS on key areas of the contact line, and in the evening on July 4, information appeared on the network referring to the Defense Intelligence of Ukraine about preparation of the Armed Forces of Novorossia for offensive operations or reconnaissance in the nearby territories of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the period from 5 to 8 in August. As for the most probable sections of the nomination of the DRG or the regular and assault units of the BCH, Kiev called the cities of Donetsk-Makeevskaya and Gorlovsko-Yenakiyev agglomerations, without mentioning anything newly for the new Azov ON. What is most interesting, even the approximate escalation dates of Kiev are indicated, which are summed up by the “intelligence of the Square” clearly under the start of the Olympics-2016. There is a "Saakashvili syndrome", which is increasingly manifested in the Ukrainian military departments.
The tendency to increase the shelling of the republics with the opening of the opening of the Olympics-2016 was also noted by many servicemen of the DPR army. At the same time, the arrivals of Ukrainian shells themselves (the militia and the population of the republics call them “pluses” or “incoming”) no longer occur in the “gray zone”, as it was in the spring, but in the residential quarters of cities. Kiev absolutely doesn't care about Minsk-2 for a long time.
In connection with what is happening, the plenipotentiary representative of the DPR at the Minsk talks Denis Pushilin, the commander of the operational command of the Donetsk Republic Eduard Basurin, as well as the head of the DPR Alexander Zakharchenko, almost simultaneously said about the possible resumption of large-scale hostilities. Even the main supporter of the “silence” regime and the peace settlement, Pushilin, this time, was very tough in favor of the Ukrainian side, noting that the attempt of the junta’s offensive was more likely to occur, and the LDNR would respond with a powerful counteroffensive. Zakharchenko backed up these words with a statement about the inevitable release of the occupied territories of the republics (Mariupol, Volnovakha, Krasnoarmeysk, etc.), as well as the complete exclusion of the development of the Minsk-3 format.
What did the Minsk-2 give to the civilian population and the LDNR army? The conflict was completely frozen at the tactical positional level: artillery and rifle battles in the Avdeevsky industrial zone, Zaitsevo and under Debaltseve, as well as regular nighttime attacks from the controlled Armed Forces of Ukraine Mariupol. The destruction of the residential infrastructure of Donetsk, Gorlovka, as well as settlements of Telmanovsky and Novoazovsky districts: hundreds and thousands of dead children, women, fathers of Donbass. The constant threat from the Ukrainian OTRK "Tochka-U", "Elbrus", as well as the MLRS "Uragan" and "Smerch", which in the current tactical situation, Ukrainian forces can reach almost any point of Novorossiya.
If the offensive took place back in September 2014, when, on the night of September 6, the punitive squadrons (volunteer battalions) of “Azov”, “Donbass” and “Dnepr” would quickly leave the unsecured Mariupol, and the drivers of the Gradov of the Armed Forces would rush into madness city roads and parks, being completely ignorant of the tactics of the militia, now Mariupol would have been a “pearl” of the DPR for a long time, and the line of demarcation would either merge with the Crimean border, or go from Berdyansk to the border of the DPR with the Dnipropetrovsk region without giving artilla Rhee APU capabilities to reach Donetsk and Mariupol. But then it didn’t happen: “Minsk” stalled the entire progress of the August offensive, only the 85-kilometer march from Amvrosiyivka to Novoazovsk alone cost (protracted battles with “Azov”, “Right Sector” (forbidden organization in the Russian Federation), a breakthrough in Shyrokyne and Pishevik). Apparently, the victorious offensive will have to continue.
“THE PROVOCATION BASE” OF THE UNIVERSITY OF URBAN UNDER MARIUPOL IS COMING INTO MOTION AT THE SAME TIME WITH THE TERMS VOID IN KYIV
In the evening of August 5, a cannonade from large-caliber barreled artillery was heard from several suburbs of Mariupol, as well as Lebedinsky and Shyrokyne. The same front-line settlements of the DPR were under fire. But by the morning, as it happened the last days, the shelling did not stop. Ukrainian howitzers and mortars in Talakovka and Pavlopol joined the work, followed by an immediate artillery response from the Armed Forces of the DPR. In Mariupol, the transport communication through the post-bridge was blocked and the central walk-throughs of the Azovstal metallurgical plant were temporarily closed. According to eyewitnesses, the regiment "Azov" led in the vicinity of the plant video filming of a report about the beginning of hostilities. The personnel were quickly scattered around spontaneous firing points to give the effect of surprise, and then further accusing the militia of unilateral unleashing of hostilities. In other words, Kiev itself provoked an artillery duel and was waiting for a more compelling reason to launch an offensive operation.
In case the proper response from the BCH is not followed, the Ukrainian army deployed up to several dozen artifacts of armored vehicles near Mariupol, the target designation for which was reported by Ukrainian mortar crews. All in the best traditions of the junta. Through the central streets of the city again in full swing the transfer of drugs "Azov" to the position on the eastern outskirts.
NEW UKRAINIAN STRENGTHENING OF THE WESTERN MARIUPOL: A CITY AS A SHIELD AND SUPPORT TO THE DIVING UKRAINIAN TROOPS
Very important news continue to come from residents of the occupied Ukrainian volunteer units and other nationalist movements of Mariupol. In the course of active preparation for an offensive operation, the Ukrainian Armed Forces in a hurry are building a large fortified area in the village of Rybatskoye, which is 4 km from the Primorsky district of Mariupol. If we proceed from the tactics of defense of a large settlement, an additional fortified area should be built either between the villages of Kalinovka and Sartan, or north of the Illichivsk district of Mariupol. Here it is immediately obvious that the Ukrainian formations already have a plan for retreat from Mariupol, and the “opornik” in Fishermen’s and will cover this retreat. The village is located on the Belosaray Spit, due to which the entire coast of the Ordzhonikidze district of the city, up to the village of Sopino, falls into the fire impact zone of the artillery of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. All coastal streets and boulevards of this area automatically become targets for Ukrainian howitzers and self-propelled guns and turn from the once flowering green parks into "death trails". From here to Rybatsky approximately 17 — 17,5 km, which is precisely in the radii of Acacia, Gradov, and Hurricanes. And the following can happen: after knocking out the “Azov” and some parts of the Armed Forces of Ukraine from the Ordzhonikidze district, the post-bridge across the r. Kalmius will be blown up, and the BCH will be forced to hold him under "wild" shelling from Volodarsky and other western settlements, as well as to develop an offensive in the western direction, bypassing the city.
It also serves as the western outpost of the Armed Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine to prevent the formation of a tactical “cauldron” around Mariupol, as Alexander Zakharchenko had already spoken about the advisability of such an attack, which was practiced by the armed forces of the republics with virtually every major Ukrainian city of Donbass. Fortunately, the Mariupolites and the whole republic, for a long time he will not last there and will be destroyed by the DPR’s land units closing the “boiler” from the north, as well as the Azov flotilla republics from the sea. Why did the junta choose this particular village? Firstly, thanks to the perfectly shot through the southern quarters of the city, and secondly, due to the developed transport hub. So, thanks to the village. Mangush to Berdyansk from Rybatskiy can be left on the E58 highway and along the embankment road. There are also roads to Zaporozhye and other settlements of neighboring regions, this helps to quickly deliver ammunition and plan a timely retreat.
It is well known that when it comes time to storm Mariupol, the best units of the Armed Forces of the DPR will take over, such as Sparta, Somalia, Vostok and Kalmius. “Azov” and “Pzam” with “Donbass” will have to be very hard here, since Mariupol is a city with a rectangular type of urban planning and developed residential and industrial areas. In such difficult conditions, the parties have equal chances in the tactics of conducting urban battles. VSN will be able to easily choose various configurations of maneuvers during the storming of the city, while Ukrainian formations have the ability to build numerous defensive tactics, but as we know from experience, even at the very beginning of the escalation (in August 2014 of the year), the DPR units already demonstrated an order of magnitude better skill with the enemy’s numerical superiority that we observed in Ilovaisk, Starobeshevo and Amvrosiyivka. So draw conclusions.
ANXIETY NEWS FROM THE NORTHERN FRONT AND ATTACKING ON THE PLOTNIKSKY - SECONDARY WAR APPROXIMATE FACTORS
All the facts now testify to the preparation of the Armed Forces of Ukraine not for local offensive operations, but for a general offensive along the entire front line. So, 2 of August, on the fake Internet site of the DPR, created by Poroshenkov's henchmen, published preparations for the advance of the DPR army in the Svetlodar bulge area. As we remember, it was here, on the Debaltsevskiy OH, that the APU lost the 2 platoon of the MBT T-64BV platoon, as well as more than a hundred servicemen at the time of the attempt to break through the Lozovoi and Logvinovsky fortified areas. The provocative message was even voiced by another Ukrainian "ace negotiator" in the contact group Yevhen Marchuk. Of course, nothing can be called such a statement, except for the next short and ridiculous "jamb" of the Ukrainian side. But nevertheless, it indicates that the Ukrainian Armed Forces continue to carry out a plan for the tactical cutting off of Donetsk-Makeevka and Gorlovsko-Enakievo agglomerations with the help of the Debaltsev interchange. How did they do it in February 2015 of the year, we remember well about the Debaltsevskiy boiler, now there can be even more losses, because in a year and a half the percentage of efficient units of equipment is no longer 60%, but more than 85-90%. An offensive in this direction will be arrested within a few days, but for the cessation of constant shelling, a counter-offensive will be required on Artyomovsky and Slavic ON.
On the Ukrainian side there is a constant transfer of new “Gradov”, howitzers and armored vehicles to Kramatorsk and Artyomovsk: over the past month, local residents of these cities have seen several similar train echelons, which, after unloading, were distributed to settlements of the Northern Front - Dzerzhinsk, Mayorsk, Konstantinovka, Svetlodarsk and Bakhmut. The beginning of a new round of military aggression in Kiev against the LDNR is also evidenced by the sequence of actions of the Foreign Ministry of Ukraine in the foreign policy arena.
Kiev did not consider it necessary to carry out the procedure for approving the newly appointed Russian ambassador to Ukraine, Mikhail Babich, whose aggrience had been requested by Moscow a little earlier. The deputy foreign minister of “Square” on European integration, Elena Zerkal, “stretching rubber,” said on the air of the pro-Western “5 Channel” that “the question in the form in which it was raised was removed from the agenda”. There was no definite answer, and the official diplomatic relations of Ukraine with Russia are rolling on the inclined still faster - this is “adequate” for Ukrainian diplomacy. At the same time, numerous maydanutyu politicians and analysts have already managed to describe the possible approval of the new ambassador as the introduction of the Russian World into the European integration processes of Ukraine, which may accelerate the start of a coup d'état in the country. Without any reasonable brains, Kiev diplomats see the new after the next “agent of the Kremlin”, the “GRU fighter”, and also the secret specialist of the information war aimed at destroying the “statehood” of Ukraine, which already does not exist.
Now about the attempt on the head of the LC of Igor Plotnitsky. On the morning of August 6 in Lugansk on the way of the car of the head of the Lugansk People's Republic, a powerful high-explosive radio-controlled explosive device worked, mounted on a light pole. Its capacity was about 15 kg of TNT. The blast wave of the Toyota Land Cruiser Prado SUV broke all the windows and the right side was severely deformed. Plotnitsky himself was delivered in serious condition to one of the medical institutions of the city of Lugansk with contusions, barotrauma, multiple injuries to the surface tissues, lung contusion, and trauma to the vitreous body and cornea of the eye. At the moment, carried out several operations, and the head of the LC was transferred to the intensive care unit, his life is safe.
One cannot finally talk about who could be behind this assassination, for it is I. Plotnitsky who stands behind the unscrupulous destruction of the glorious battalion-era GDR (rapid reaction team) and its field commander Alexander Aleksandrovich Bednova. The unit was suddenly attacked by the assault detachment of the Ministry of Internal Affairs of the LPR, orders which were given by Carpenter. Then there were other losses among the field commanders: the commander of the ICBM Alexey Mozgovoy, the commander of the 6-th separate motorized rifle Cossack regiment to them. M.I. Platov Pavel Dremov and military commandant and mayor of Pervomaisk Yevgeny Ischenko. All these people really defended the interests of the people and did not keep backstage arrangements with the militants of the Kiev junta. Thus, it was precisely in I. Plotnitsky’s circles that persons who organized a multi-million smuggling of goods from Ukraine were noticed. It is not possible to prove his involvement in the elimination of the Brain, Dremov and Ishchenko for one hundred percent, but, based on the situation with Bednov and Batman, all thoughts quickly line up in the correct logical chain. All these people were not very profitable for the leadership of the LC, and partly "crossed the road" and hindered the implementation of all the ideas of the republic's leadership associated with the "kicking" interaction with "Square" in the language of big capital.
The current attempt on Plotnitsky has very complex roots, and can be connected both with the sharply changed anti-Ukrainian rhetoric and with the revenge of the internal popular military ideologues for their field commanders.
In the first case, we are talking about the fact that over the past year Plotnitsky’s rhetoric towards Ukraine has sharply tightened. For example, if in February 2015 of the year he, contrary to the opinion of the people, stated that after reforms and federalization, Kiev could keep the republic in the “Square” structure, then in April and May 2016 of the year he noted the real situation, expressing the view that “ unchanged, to the Russian world! ”and directly accused Ukraine of sabotaging the Minsk agreements. And on the eve of the new escalation of hostilities in the Donbass, Plotnitsky’s opinion could well lead to an assassination attempt by the Ukrainian DRGs, which, after being trained by NATO instructors, began to act much more secretively and dangerously (as is well known, today the junta no longer practices sending numerous DRGs, but sends well trained singles who, with the help of modern electronic devices, maintain tactical communications with each other and skillfully conduct subversive activities in the republics). Such a military-political maneuver could be aimed at creating a share of chaos in the leadership of the LC, as well as undermining the morale of the security forces of the republic before a new round of aggression.
The second option is a bit less plausible, but also has a place to be. People’s units that were deprived of their ideological mentors could justifiably take revenge on Plotnitsky with the help of such an action. This could happen only within the framework of a secret agreement and organization between the various parts of the “Narodniks” divisions without the participation of the commanding staff of these divisions, because all of them have long been included in the structures of the people's militia corps of the LC. The variant according to which internal conflicts between Plotnitsky's business elites and rival groups have led to the assassination may also be considered.
ATTEMPT FOR THE BREAKTHROUGH OF THE RUSSIAN-UKRAINIAN BORDER ON THE ARMENIAN DIRECTION - SENTENCE FOR KIEV
By turning Minsk-2 into a pile of obscene waste paper, Ukraine continues to provoke the republics of Donbass and Russia to the most severe asymmetrical response that will forever cover any conversations and plans of the Kiev top leadership to restore constitutional order in the LDNR and the Republic of Crimea.
At about 4 in the morning, 7 in August, on the border of the Kherson region with the Republic of Crimea, in the region of the settlement of Armyansk there was a "breakthrough" of the Ukrainian DRG on the territory of the peninsula. The group consisted of more than 10 militants and tried to pass unnoticed near the checkpoint and the military unit of Armyansk, and then delve into the territory of the peninsula, which it did not succeed. An exchange of fire took place between the border guards and the militants, as a result of which one Russian border guard was killed and three were injured. According to eyewitnesses, the Ukrainian military formation died before the 6 militants, while some could escape persecution deep into the Crimean territory. The situation is in fact out of the ordinary and really threatening the national security of the Russian Federation. Today, more than a dozen militants, tomorrow a couple of armored personnel carriers or infantry fighting vehicles ... And what about tomorrow? "Tornadoes" from Genichesk decide to have fun?
In order to suppress further provocations, reinforced units of the Ministry of Internal Affairs appeared on the streets and in the vicinity of the cities of Dzhankoy and Armyansk, backed by several dozen tanks and armored vehicles, attack helicopters periodically patrol the border. Considering the large number of Ukrainian installations of the barrel and rocket artillery, as well as the huge number of gangs heavily armed to the teeth, represented by the Crimean Tatars, “PS” and the Armed Forces, concentrated in the Kherson region, we can state the “yellow” level of threat, especially since Ukraine is now practically uncontrollable . And note: a sharp aggravation of the situation around the borders of Crimea and LDN is perfectly accompanied by the Olympiad that has begun.
Several versions are being voiced at once regarding the preparation of an attack on the military unit in Armyansk: according to one of them, the main curator of this lawlessness is the Crimean Tatar political figure and entrepreneur Lenur Islyamov, one of the ideologists of the blockade of the Republic of Crimea. Today, a plan has been announced in the Crimea to “intercept” militants who could still break into the territory of the peninsula, and dozens of light and heavy armored vehicles of the Russian Army were launched on the border with the Kherson region
Three interesting, but not brought to a logical conclusion options for the development of the situation in the Donbas described in the publication "Izvestia" the head of the Ukrainian branch of the Institute of CIS countries Denis Denisov.
In accordance with the first formation, the Ukrainian army can launch a general offensive along the entire front line, with the most powerful artillery preparation on the military infrastructure of the Armed Forces of the DPR and the People’s Militia Corps, located both outside and on the territory of the largest cities of Donbass. In this case, the states interpret what is happening by establishing a constitutional order, and the EU countries will only “scold” Kiev for the next non-observance of the Minsk format.
The second and most likely course of events is the rapid transition of the armed forces of Novorossia to a counter-offensive immediately after blocking the offensive operation of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. This time, both the States and the EU will unanimously condemn the actions of the republics, transferring all responsibility to Russia, as well as adding additional sanctions to the existing list of sanctions. In this case, according to Denisov, many international organizations will be involved in the conflict, but this will not have a particular impact.
In accordance with the third option, the general attack of the junta will be stopped, but the borders of the Donetsk and Lugansk People’s Republics will remain at the same place, and no counteroffensive will follow.
In conclusion, Denis Denisov concludes his statement with an absolutely illogical and erroneous result, summarizing that “none of these options promise the LDNR any good,” and insisting on the nonexistent effectiveness of the peace negotiations.
Looking more deeply at the second option with the counter-offensive of the Armed Forces of Novorossia, it becomes clear that when the borders of the republics literally merge with the borders of the former Donetsk and Lugansk regions, silence finally prevails in the central cities. The range of the Grad and Uragan artillery systems of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, as well as the Msta-B, Pion and Msta-S self-propelled howitzers do not exceed 25-38 km, and they do not have much Smerchia. They simply can not do anything, opening fire from the Dnipropetrovsk or Zaporizhia regions only in the fields between Andreevka and Kurakhovo. If they try to attack the cities of the republics with “Dots-U” or “Elbrusami”, the BCH has already had air defense systems for intercepting them for a long time, since nobody has yet canceled the saving “military trade”. The third option, in practice, the June "throw" of the Ukrainian Armed Forces at Debaltseve ON, proved all its ineffectiveness. VSN stopped the breakthrough of the Ukrainian units, rejected them to their former positions in Svetlodarsk, but the shelling by the junta’s artillery did not cease. Artillery exchanges south of Bakhmut are observed daily.
The second variant of Denisov will be simply indispensable for the further advance of the army of Novorossia from Donbas to the Crimean border. Here, the formations of the junta, Turkish mercenaries and the IG, fairly infuriating the Crimean grouping of the Russian troops with constant provocations, will quickly find themselves in the next tactical "boiler" between the invading forces of the DPR and the Russian Federation advancing through Chongar along the Azov Sea. It is not long to wait for “H” hours, and only a successful offensive operation by the armies of the republics can “pull out” the situation and the Russian people of Donbass from this terrible and disastrous military-political quagmire.
Information sources:
http://primechaniya.ru/home/proisshestviya1/avgust_20162/krym_granica_perestrelka/
http://e-news.pro/svodki-opolcheniya/
Information