The failure of the coup orchestrated perfectly
The attempt of a military coup in Turkey, which failed in the night from 14 to 15 in July, ended in unprecedented bloodshed. Poor Mustafa Kemal Pasha Ataturk! In those days, he would have to turn over in his grave in a mausoleum after his name more than once.
WHAT'S IN A NAME
Having spent more than five years in Turkey in the 50s of the last century, I knew well that family names in Turkey were introduced with the squeak and even tooth gnashing of enemies and opponents of the Kemalian revolution. The example was largely shown by Mustafa Kemal Pasha, who acquired the name Atatürk, which means “father of the Turks”. His closest associate, General Ismet Pasha, deserved for military service the name of Inon by the name of a city in Western Anatolia, where he won one of the decisive victories over the enemy in 20-s.
Recep Erdoğan historical no victories. He got his surname from his father, a native of the Georgian Laz family, who could serve in the Turkish army most often as ordinary soldiers. Hence the surname - Erdogan, which means "born to be a soldier." But in life, his relationship with the army did not go well. Perhaps that is why he did not reach the title of Pasha and preferred to serve not in the army, but in politics, or rather, in the “Islamization of politics” and “politicization of Islam”. Erdogan headed the National Progress Party (PNP) he created, bypassing Ataturk's ban on the use of Islam for political purposes and the exploitation of religion by a state based on the principles of a secular state of "laicism."
There are many versions about who could be the initiator and organizer of the failed putsch in Turkey. One of them does not exclude Erdogan himself directly or indirectly. It was here that such a “gizmo” could spin, which turned out to be “stronger than Faust” and more terrible than “Goethe’s thousands of fantasies”.
The time for staging the performance with a coup in Turkey was quite appropriate. After the unprecedented bloodshed with great human sacrifices on the Cote d'Azur in Nice, who could be concerned with Turkey and Erdogan. Probably, all this could not be ignored by the instigators of the conspiracy. But his failure, too, can not but alarm. At least in my memory over the past five decades, at least five coups took place in Turkey, most often culminating in the coming to power of generals. The fifth attempt at such a rebellion ended in failure for the first time. This, too, in its own way inspires suspicion. If the threads of the conspiracy led to Erdogan himself, then he could well now claim the title of general Recep Pasha. However, the service in the army Erdogan preferred a political career. He has long been sympathetic to Islamists associated with the Muslim Brotherhood or the Gray Wolves. Although it was Kemal Ataturk who considered the army as the most reliable guarantor of the secularism and national security of the state.
After becoming president, Erdogan openly began to sympathize not only with the “Muslim Brotherhood” that came to power in Egypt, but also with his own Islamists. Using the rights of the commander in chief, last year he arrested more than 70 high-ranking officers and generals, accusing them of plotting. But that was only the beginning.
The moment of staging the performance with a coup was most likely chosen from both sides. Erdogan after participating in the Warsaw summit of NATO decided to rest for a few days in the resort town of Marmaris. He could well become, but did not become a victim or hostage of the conspirators. But somehow he managed to escape in advance, though rebel helicopters had already been sent there. In addition to helicopters, Air Force aircraft also took part in the rebellion. By that time they had hit the presidential residence in Ankara, the building of the Majlis and other government agencies. This, obviously, gave rise to Erdogan to announce the organizer of the putsch of the Commander-in-Chief of the Turkish Air Force, General Akin Ozturk, with a loud last name “a real Turk”.
The total number of victims of the rebellion has not yet been established. Participated in the coup allegedly more than 5 thousand. Military. In this regard, it cannot but come as a surprise that on the very next day after the coup (according to various sources) the number of those arrested is called from 7 to 10 thousand people.
WHO IS GUILTY
Another, more important circumstance draws attention to itself: the failure of the allegedly disrupted anti-government demonstration was used by the authorities to hold mass demonstrations condemning the conspirators in Istanbul, Ankara. Speaking at one of such rallies, Erdogan himself made it clear that conspiracy threads lead (where would you think?) To Pennsylvania, USA, where the disgraced theologian Fethullah Gulen has been living in political emigration for more than 20 years. He is considered one of the 500 most influential and richest Muslims in the world. He was considered and may still be the owner of several opposition publications in Turkey, publishing his theological works in different languages (including Russian).
Intentionally I quote below the statements of philosopher and theologian Fethullah Gülen 12-old about the tragedy in Beslan: "The Islamic world cannot be built on the blood of innocent children, victims of the tragedy of Beslan." His words and now correspond with his views on the fight and everything that happens in Turkey.
Gülen categorically rejected the accusations against him of Erdogan’s involvement in a bloody play staged by his main character himself. The theologian Gülen could not be involved in the events due to the “jihad of terrorism” he rejected, as well as other forms of violence. In response to Erdogan’s accusations, he condemned the use of force in establishing authoritarian power in the country. In an effort to establish a dictatorial regime, Erdogan surpassed all predecessors. He also shed a lot of blood (the victims of this performance are already in the thousands). Every day, arrests are held in the army, the judiciary and the state apparatus of the country. The total number of those arrested has long gone on thousands. Among them are hundreds of officers and generals, not to mention other regular military personnel. A significant part of them, including the Commander-in-Chief of the Air Force Akin Ozturk, deny their involvement in the preparation of the failed coup.
At the thousands of rallies held in both capitals of Turkey, there were voices about the abolition of the death penalty ban in force since 2004. It is clear: if such a law is adopted, then the question not only about admitting Turkey to the European Union, but also about the continuation of the “strategic alliance” of Turkey and the United States within the framework of NATO, disappears.
Washington immediately refused to comply with Ankara’s demands for the extradition of Gulen without Turkey presenting substantial evidence of his involvement in the rebellion. The United States was seriously alarmed by the fact that the commander was among those arrested. aviation Incirlik base, which until recently housed American nuclear carrier aircraft weapons.
The events in Turkey can be attributed to manifestations of a hybrid quasimirovo war. Its explosive properties can also find manifestations in a chain reaction of unresolved crises in the Middle East, the closest west to Russia - in Ukraine, in North Africa, in troubled Afghanistan, where the tentacles of the Islamic State banned in Russia, DAISH, have reached.
In almost all of these countries I happened to be. But after the start of a new hybrid fight in Turkey, I would not like to return there. In one, especially muddy water does not enter twice ...
Failed, not the first coup attempt in Turkey has caused a controversial reaction in the world. In my memory, this happened more than once. I myself managed to be a witness, even to be involved in the preparation in Istanbul of a group of retired coup officers against Prime Minister Adnan Menderes. The officers' discontent was caused by his desire to implant Islam then through the construction of new mosques. The government of Menderes was overthrown, and he was hanged. But much bloodshed was then avoided. Only Menderes himself and his minions were executed.
This time everything could turn out differently, it is enough to remember how another military coup ended in 1980. He was accompanied by mass arrests in the country. Then there were more than one and a half million people in the black lists of the unreliable. Tens of thousands were forced to emigrate. Among the persecuted dissidents were many religious figures.
In the 90s, two more coups followed, bringing the Islamist party to power, led by Prime Minister Erbakan. But he did not last long in power. Even then, the mayor of Istanbul, Recep Erdogan, began to make his way to power. So Istanbul can be called his hometown, where he began his political career. Before he reached the top of power in 1998, he had to sit in jail for several months, as I heard, for contacting the radical Gray-wolves Pan-Turkist organization. It must be assumed that it was precisely in those years that he had a break with the Turkish theologian-writer and philosopher Fethullah Gülen, who later headed the organization “Ministry” (in Turkish “Khizmet”). It was his Erdogan who, in the very first hours of the coup, hurried to accuse him of organizing.
Now, with fresh and fairly bloodied tracks, it is already possible to arrive at a preliminary conclusion. The coup resulted in a struggle for the power to advance on both sides. As one of the first conclusions, we can already state: the rebellion has failed, but the fight is still ongoing. On the very first day of the coup, Erdogan succeeded in presenting him as an attempt by the enemies to overthrow the legitimate authority in the country. However, in addition to the thousands of rallies of Erdogan’s supporters in his native Istanbul and in the bureaucratic capital Ankara, there are also the second half of the citizens, including those in the army, who hate him. In this case, Turkish society appeared as a kind of complex and explosive hybrid. One would like to say: a hybrid on a hybrid, it is not known by whom and where it is driven.
In this situation, the diplomats cannot be envied ... And there is nothing left for President Vladimir Putin to convey to the former (maybe future) partner condolences through the mouth of Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov wishing to get out of the current situation in Turkey by constitutional means. These words were spoken a few hours before in the EU countries and the United States began to vaguely say something similar.
In the most difficult situation was President Barack Obama. The CIA and other intelligence agencies were supposed to inform the White House in advance about the coup being prepared in Turkey. But it is not for nothing that they slander that in the position of Obama - in the position of a “lame duck” - in the White House not all are home. I do not presume to judge whether he had intelligence information and whether he shared it with obstinate Erdogan.
Most likely the events will continue to develop not only in Turkey in the mode of proactive.
“THE TURKISH BEACH DOESN'T NEED US ...”
The failed coup in Turkey confirmed once again that, both in war and in other similar cases, much depends not on the correlation of forces, but on the actions of pre-emption. This, apparently, was also manifested in Turkey, no matter what version one might adhere to about the preparation of the insurgency. According to the Iranian agency Fars, which refers to reliable Arab sources, Erdogan allegedly received such information about the pre-emption from the intelligence agencies of Russia. Moscow had its own good reasons for that.
Everything could have happened according to the scenario of the overthrow of the government of Adnan Menderes at the beginning of the 60s. Then the military circles connected with the USA overthrew Menderes in order to prevent the visit of the Turkish Prime Minister to Moscow already announced. Everything could happen again this time under the conditions when Erdogan gathered to meet with Putin in the near future. According to information received by the Fars agency, Moscow managed to transmit information about the upcoming state coup at the very moment when Erdogan and his family were on holiday in their residence in Marmaris. Thanks to this, Erdogan literally miraculously managed to escape for 10 – 15 minutes before the coup broke into his hotel, having managed to destroy the guards. The plans of the rebels managed to prevent a detachment of Turkish special forces, responsible for the security of the president.
According to the same Arab sources, Erdogan could receive from the intelligence of Russia and other information. The commander of the air base in Incirlik, Turkish General Bakir Ercan, previously asked the US for asylum in case of a coup failure. But for some reason, the Americans refused him. Moscow regarded this as a signal that the granting of asylum to him would be a signal of the impending putsch. With any succession of events, the Turks were ready to take control of this base with the nuclear weapons there. In case the base was taken by the putschists or the Americans, it was de-energized for several days.
Many people remember a very popular song once with the words: “We don’t need a Turkish coast, and we don’t need Africa”. Since then, tourists from Russia managed to catch the fancy of the Red Sea beaches in Egypt, the Mediterranean in Tunisia and Libya, but most of all - the rest in the hotels of Antalya, where everything is "all inclusive".
Judging by the results of a joint meeting of the National Security Council of Turkey held on July 13 (chaired by “Sultan Erdogan”), a state of emergency is introduced there for three months. Naturally, entry into the country at this time is limited, and the doors of hotels on the coast of Turkey will close. But the doors of prisons for Turkish citizens suspected of involvement in the coup, will open wider! The total number of those arrested and detained has already exceeded several tens of thousands. Many Turkish scientists and teachers of higher educational institutions have been declared restricted to leave abroad. Hundreds of servants of Themis themselves were behind bars. The fate of the law enforcers is also questionable until the clarification of their involvement in the failed coup d'état. This was not in Turkey, even with all the sultans. At a joint meeting, Erdogan again voiced accusations against the Islamic dissident Gülen in organizing the failed putsch.
After all that has been said, and for Turkey itself, the door for its entry into the EU may turn out to be slammed. Already, even in the US, there are voices, whether Turkey should be considered a member of NATO. In the end, even geographically, Turkey has nothing to do with the North Atlantic. The geopolitical address, the so-called location of Turkey, will also have to be clarified by itself. The country was suddenly at the threshold of the long-defunct High Ports. After the battle that has not yet ended in the “advance” mode in Turkey, Erdogan and his successors will have to seriously consider where to go next. And with whom…
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