Military Review

Other Turkey

52
The domestic political crisis in Turkey, the sharpest since the republic began at the start of the 1920, continues to deepen, before my eyes become overgrown with myths, shaking NATO and threatening to destabilize not only the Middle East region, but also the European Union.


Events in Turkey are far from complete, and how they will unfold depends on many factors, primarily on the degree of support of President Erdogan by his supporters and the level of resistance that his opponents will have on repressions unfolding in the country. Let us consider some aspects of the current situation on materials prepared by the experts of the Institute of the Middle East I. I. Starodubtsev and Yu. B. Shcheglovin.

Iranian "Russian trace"

The Iranian news agency Fars announced that the Turkish president had received a warning from Russia about a military coup in preparation several hours before it began. This message has attracted the attention of domestic media and deserves comment. According to Fars, the information was provided to Arab media by diplomatic sources in Ankara, who claimed that the National Intelligence Organization of Turkey (MIT) had been warned by the Russian security forces "about the inevitable military coup." Information about him obtained by the military in Syria from the interception of negotiations conspirators. It is known that "Fars" is prone to stuffing unverified or made-up information. However, consider it.

It is no secret that the Russian HVAC has a radio intelligence point on its base. Russian ships that serve in the Mediterranean are also watching the radio. But the emphasis is on intercepting messages from opposition field commanders and Turkish territory bordering Syria, including the conversations of pilots and dispatchers of the Incirlik air force base, where the US nuclear bombs are stored. If we assume that the mention of some movements of groups of troops was slipping into communication between the Turkish military (which is doubtful), it is unrealistic to link them with the attempt of the putsch. To do this, you need to know about the attempt to revolt and listen to the phones of its leaders. That is, to lead the development of objects. By the way, if the “Russians” deciphered the negotiations that followed a closed connection, then for Moscow there are no secrets either in Turkey or in NATO, since military cryptography must fit the uniform standard of this organization.

It is necessary to consider the time limit. Messages must be intercepted, translated, compared, analyzed and reported down the hierarchy up to the president. This is a long time. Moreover, it is doubtful that the details of the coup were discussed by open communications or mobile phones without using euphemisms. To understand the meaning of such conversations on the basis of the text is difficult. The reason is not fear of being heard by Russians or Americans (who have much more powerful radio interception capabilities, but the mutiny was a surprise for them), but because the main radio interception station in Turkey was transferred from MIT to the special service for three years. She redirected all her capabilities to the domestic front. The putschists either had to not talk on the air or do it with the maximum degree of encryption.

The main question - why warn Erdogan about the rebellion - remains open. At the moment, the attitude towards him is characterized by a high degree of mistrust, no matter what steps Moscow or Ankara have shown to normalize relations.

What threatened the change of Erdogan to the military-secular regime for the interests of Moscow in the region? Nothing. The military who came to power would no longer trust the Islamist groups in Syria and regard them as a main ally. Their support for the opposition Assad would not have ceased, but the format and the addressees would have changed significantly. The same can be said about relations between Ankara and Doha, as well as Riyadh.

As for the USA, the differences over the support of the Kurds between Ankara and Washington would remain. And if the Turks began to more actively cooperate with the Americans in eliminating the infrastructure of the IS prohibited in Russia, then for Moscow this would be acceptable. The military regime in Turkey would not support the Muslim Brotherhood in Syria, like Erdogan. His overthrow was not a global threat to the interests of Russia. What makes senseless and the intervention of Moscow in the internal political situation in this country, and the message of the agency "Fars".

RFP by law

On July 21, the Turkish Official Gazette No. 29777 published the Council of Ministers resolution No. 2016 / 9064 on the introduction of a state of emergency in the country for a period of 90 days. The regime passed the approval process in the Mejlis: 346 parliamentarians voted in favor (Justice and Development Party and nationalists), 115 voted against, with a low turnout: 461 from 550 deputies. First time in stories The Republic of Turkey PSC is introduced throughout the country, and not in individual provinces, as was the case in the 13 eastern muds of Turkey, in which PSCs continued from 1987 to 2002 a year.

Other TurkeyAt the same time, the hopes in the society that the CPI will not last long are groundless. The previous state of emergency in the east of the country was extended by the 46 Majlis once, and the scale of the events was incomparable with the current one. The fact that the CPI introduced with 21 in July is likely to be extended, according to an interview with Ibrahim Kalyn, press secretary of the president, given by CNN Trk. He rejected the very possibility of reproaches against Ankara by foreign countries after the introduction of the CPI by Paris (after the terrorist attack in Nice).

From the point of view of democracy, Turkey is not France, and, despite the assurances of Ankara that RFP will not affect the daily lives of people, the anxiety of the population is warmed up by thousands of detainees and tens of thousands of dismissed and suspended workers. RFP means putting the country in manual control mode, when government decrees automatically receive the force of law.

Regulated by the RFP Act No. 2935 of 1983. It provides for restrictions on entry, exit and residence in certain regions of the country, evacuation and moving to a new place of residence; suspension of work of educational institutions regardless of their affiliation (public or private) and the closure of dormitories; determination of the mode of operation, closure and suspension of the functioning of places of leisure and entertainment; restriction and cancellation of vacations of relevant personnel; destruction of hazardous buildings, property and food; regulation of the sale, storage, distribution of strategic products and consumer goods, restriction of activities, placing under control and closing of outlets, as well as the necessary measures to ensure order in land, sea and air transport.

The state receives broad powers to intervene in the economy. Control and regulatory functions can be transferred to the Economic Coordination Council of the State of Emergency under the chairmanship of the Prime Minister or the relevant ministry. Among the additional measures, the law gives the government the right to limit the rights and freedoms of the individual; monitor and regulate the activities of the media and cultural institutions; establish special measures for the protection of strategic, public and private facilities; regulate the circulation of hazardous, explosive and chemical substances; to restrict and regulate the holding of mass events and activities of public organizations, as well as to conduct military operations outside Turkey, as agreed with neighboring states.

The first steps to use the authority by the leadership of Turkey have already been taken, including the abolition of August leaves for civil servants and their withdrawal from leave, a ban on their departure from the country (this includes certain categories of other workers, even employees of private universities), the removal of tens of thousands of representatives judicial and police corps, administrative and scientific staff of universities, including all university deans, etc.

Encouraged and endorsed the support of the leadership of the country "simple people". In the media, "the people" play a decisive role in disrupting the attempted coup. Special incentive measures were introduced (free use of Turkish cities, including Istanbul and Ankara, in public transport). Across the country, there are rallies of supporters of the leadership with the requirements of burning out the Gulenov infection.

No survival without NATO

This provoked a corresponding reaction from Western countries, which are beginning to express concern over the attempt to destroy the political opposition in Turkey under the pretext of persecuting supporters of the insurgency. It is clear that President Erdogan is completely reformatting the country's political architecture, starting with the judicial system and ending with the journalists and faculty of the universities. All this gave rise to discussions about the future of Turkey in NATO. According to their logic, it becomes an analogue of Iran, and the alliance will not be able to tolerate an Islamist country in its ranks. The demand for the extradition of Imam F. Gulen will become an insurmountable obstacle in the development of relations between the United States and Turkey, which will accelerate Ankara’s withdrawal from NATO.

The latter is unlikely. Membership in the block is a form of maintaining national security for Turkey, in which it currently can only exist. It is the stay in NATO that opens Ankara to modern types of weapons, communication systems and intelligence of the alliance, as well as material and technical support from alliance partners.

Turkey has been in the NATO standards system for a long time. Rejection of them will cause the collapse of the armed forces without any hope of modernization on their own. Defense spending will rise sharply, which is unprofitable in the midst of a serious financial crisis. Withdrawal from NATO will leave Ankara alone on controversial issues with Greece and the Cyprus problem. In this scenario, the initiation of trials on them in an international court will begin. Finally, withdrawal from NATO will untie the hands of Western countries to discuss the violation of the rights and freedoms of Turkish citizens, which will culminate in economic sanctions and resolutions in the UN Security Council, even if you do not take into account the economic component and sharply increasing investment risks.

It seems that the Turkish leadership is miscalculated. For now, we see Erdogan’s angry rhetoric about EU intervention in domestic affairs and appeals to the United States to prove that they are different. This is an exemplary reaction to the attempted military coup and the hysteria in society to do everything possible to destroy the internal opposition. At the same time, Erdogan understands that after a break with the West in the economic and military spheres, his days as leader will be numbered, and will not cross the “red lines”, which are determined by comments from Brussels. For Erdogan, a declaration of withdrawal from NATO means the beginning of its end, because then the United States will join in to neutralize it. The UK referendum on leaving the European Union did not threaten their strategic interests. The situation with Turkey and NATO is another matter. This is an attempt on the integrity of the American collective security system.

Turkey will not be able to leave NATO without consequences, and conversations on this topic should be considered political speculation. Erdogan is able to change landmarks in one day, as evidenced by the "breakthroughs" in improving bilateral relations with Russia and Israel. But he does not need to turn the EU and the USA into enemies. Do not forget that behind it is only half of the population, and as the economic situation worsens, which the United States can provide quickly, this will not be enough. A proof of understanding of the realities was that the US Air Force aircraft resumed flying from the Incirlik Air Force Base one day after the failure of the coup. Erdogan is trying to convince the West to turn a blind eye to the actions of usurping power - nothing more. A break with NATO can occur only if extreme religious fanatics come to power, which is unrealistic in modern Turkey.

Obviously, the path to the EU for Ankara is closed, and Erdogan has already publicly articulated this. Everything became clear after the German Bundestag voted for a resolution recognizing the Armenian Genocide in the Ottoman Empire.

Russia may extract certain dividends from this “nerve struggle” between Ankara, the US and the EU. Finding Erdogan in the "political blockade" for Russia is beneficial for various reasons, including, of course, and obtaining economic advantages. The only drawback lies in the likelihood that the prospects for large infrastructure projects in the energy sector such as reanimation of the idea of ​​the “Turkish Stream” can be forgotten. The EU will do everything possible to prevent the implementation of the plan to turn Turkey into the main center of gas supplies to Europe. That, however, saves Russia from the corresponding risks.

We are waiting for defectors

In an interview with Reuters, Erdogan announced flaws in intelligence work and promised to reorganize the armed forces. He pointed out that in the near future a new military structure will appear in Turkey. What he said puts an end to media reports that MIT knew about the impending putsch in advance and warned the military commanders of the insurgents ’speech. However, she did not inform the president, and her counterparts at the General Staff were later arrested as “ardent conspirators”.

If we take for granted that all the military and civilian ranks of more than 10 thousand people already detained and suspended from work and service in Turkey participated in the plot, the intelligence service works very poorly. Do not track the plot in advance through an agent network with so many participants is unrealistic. The head of MIT, H. Fidan, was given full possession of the main electronic intelligence station, which was removed from the military. MIT was also handed over to the Kurdish dossier, taking it from the jurisdiction of the gendarmerie. The latter was then cleaned under the pretext of getting rid of supporters of Gülen, as a result of which there was a sharp outflow of qualified personnel and a drop in the level of struggle with Kurdish separatists.

The fact that 180 was fired from intelligence has shown: MIT was not aware of what was happening. The consequence of this will be the removal of Fidan from his post in the near future. Togo has long been dismissed, leaving him the position of Turkish ambassador to Japan. It was considered disgraced, but it seems that for Fidan the case could end up much worse, even to the extent of accusations of participation in the conspiracy. Recall that after he came to the post of MIT head, this structure was awaited by massive purges. The number of emigrants from the armed forces, which under the previous regimes and presidents were 40 – 45 percent, now barely exceeds four percent. As a result, the professional level of employees engaged in operational work fell.

This can be seen in the example of the activities of the MIT embassy residency in Moscow. Previously, there were scouts prepared in training schools in the United States. Then, people from the AKP "party set" took their places. The system of social elevators developed by the Erdogan administration to change the stagnant and hostile state and power apparatus increases the electoral support of the president, but drops the quality of work of the power departments, violating the main principle of functioning of any structure - preservation of the institution of continuity of generations. The same expects the army and the state apparatus of Turkey in the near future.

Creating a new military structure means the arrival in the power bloc of young party functionaries from the ruling Justice and Development Party, who are loyal to the president, but very poorly trained in professional terms. Prior to that, the Turkish military studied in schools in the United States and Europe. Now, owing to the refusal of the Americans to extradite Gülen (there is little doubt that Washington will refuse to do this, if only because the US needs to maintain leverage over the situation in Turkey), these refresher courses are in question. So, there is no question of maintaining the Turkish armed forces at the professional level and technical equipment, and so far they will not go.

President Erdogan embarked on a slippery path of reforming the army along the lines of Iran, where ideology replaces professional qualities. The war in Syria has shown the inability of such an army to fight any successfully for a long time. The Iranians could not hold the front in Syria, which led to the arrival at the theater of military operations there Russian videoconferencing.

The situation with the suppression of the Kurdish uprising in the south-east of Turkey has demonstrated a rather weak training of officers of its armed forces and gendarmerie. The army was not ready for a mine-explosive and urban war. Due to recent events, there are no clear prerequisites for overcoming this state of affairs and it is not necessary to wait for them. The same is true of the police, MIT and gendarmerie. In this regard, we should expect a drop in the level of professional work in the embassy residencies of MIT, including in connection with the cleaning of personnel.

It is already underway, but the main blow of repression will come at the moment of Fidan’s resignation, which the Turkish Prime Minister B. Yıldırım insists. For this, he has personal reasons - in due time, thanks to Fidan, the Turkish press published photos of the shocking behavior of the son of the Turkish Prime Minister at a casino in Singapore. And if the cleaning in MIT acquires the character of mass repressions, we should expect the appearance of defectors from among the employees who work in this special service abroad. What is primarily important is not for the states of the European Union, the USA, Israel, Iran and Egypt (and other countries of the Arab world), but for Russia and the post-Soviet republics, including the countries of Central Asia.
Author:
Originator:
http://vpk-news.ru/articles/31577
52 comments
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  1. ssdfrf
    ssdfrf 27 July 2016 21: 36
    +3
    Mr. Chief Turk will ruin the country with his repressions, he completely "got off the hook", university professors, school teachers, even employees of the Turkish airline "Turkish Airlans" are arrested. Such a stupid policy will lead to the collapse of the country.
    1. ando_bor
      ando_bor 27 July 2016 21: 51
      +7
      These are all agents of American influence, but how do you think America steers Europe? - It was through these institutions, in Ukraine, that they came to power.
      Turkey did not join the sanctions at one time, America does not forgive such rebellion, otherwise their entire system of domination would have collapsed long ago.
      1. Shurik70
        Shurik70 27 July 2016 22: 01
        +10
        Quote: ando_bor
        These are all agents of American influence ... America does not forgive such disobedience

        Actually, it’s fun.
        The American vassal ruins American agents by American methods.
        Well, God forbid.
        Any bloodiest dictator for the region in particular and for humanity in general will be better than an American prostitute.
        There will be less blood, more order.
        1. theadenter
          theadenter 27 July 2016 22: 14
          +2
          It all depends on the sanity of the dictator. The form of the state is such that the entire combat-ready people must will fight with the enemy than with a democratic one, where the people must first be persuaded to fight.
          Of course, I'm talking about real dictators, not legitimately elected representatives of the authorities, whom the United States called dictators for its profitable reasons.
          1. Foxmara
            Foxmara 28 July 2016 03: 37
            +1
            Quote: theadenter
            than a democratic one, where the people must first be persuaded to fight.

            Come on? Just the media need time to promote. And that is not always the case.
        2. ando_bor
          ando_bor 27 July 2016 22: 47
          +9
          It makes sense to talk with any dictator, - there is an option to agree on something, to talk to Europe - it makes no sense, everything is decided in America, - they are entrusted with the maximum voice of the American position.
          1. Kasym
            Kasym 28 July 2016 00: 01
            +21
            You can argue with the author somewhere. Here are a few facts:
            1. Turkish politicians themselves admit that the Russian Federation has provided great assistance.
            2. Erdogan travels to the Russian Federation, and not to the USA. After the coup, they don’t go to the enemies.
            3. In addition to RER, there is probably an agent network, as many Turks lived in the USSR. Large tourist flow and many joint projects (construction for example). And infa could come from very distant countries.
            4. Criticism of the highest ranks of Turkey in Western countries.
            Hence the conclusion that the Russian Federation played an important role in retaining Erdogan’s power.
            Why didn’t they give a coup? Because the generals who trained in NATO countries, it is clear whose tune they will dance - this is the worst option for Moscow. And what will the shattered Erdogan do? I wrote that the west is his color. he will arrange a revolution - it has become painfully independent and uncontrollable for them, he is pursuing an independent policy that contradicts the EU and the USA. So I got it - let's hope that she understands where the chaos wind is blowing.
            Will he leave NATO or not? Let it at least lag behind Syria and become neutral - that's enough. Why, during the NATO invasion of Iraq, the Turks did not allow the use of their territory for the invasion - so now let them be neutralized, and will it be purple for us to join NATO or not ?! And then - let's see what will sing in St. Petersburg (although they are unlikely to tell us) ?! Time is playing on us - Erdogan is "burning" on all "fronts" (Kurds, ISIS, Syria, terrorist attacks, tourists and shuttles) - he may very soon lose his remaining support in the country and the author is right here.
            Erdogan is now beaten-killed - the Kremlin gives him one last chance. Because has experience:
            1. Kurds. The Turks need to find their Kadyrov among the Kurds in order to reconcile.
            2. ISIS and terrorist attacks. Only the Russian Federation was able to defeat the terror on its territory (although the echoes still disturb the region).
            3. Syria and neighbors. Here the United States is definitely not an assistant for peacekeeping.
            4. Economics - everything is clear here. The Germans and Europeans certainly will not appear on the beaches of Turkey, and they will not buy agricultural products, and even more so they will not give gas from nuclear power plants. But what about construction for the 2018 World Cup and other facilities?
            Well, if he continues to be arrogant and does not understand anything, then his place is only in history. hi
            1. Kasym
              Kasym 28 July 2016 03: 14
              +3
              Did the NATO know about the coup? Let's put ourselves in the shoes of the rebellious general who graduated from West Points. The army is presented to us as the elite of Turkish society - literate and smart people, especially in stripes. They probably should have taken care of external recognition - otherwise you can't shoot without cartridges - a common truth for any military man. The Russian Federation is dissatisfied with Erdogan and everything is clear, but it was necessary to consult with the USA and Co. The smart ones had to do just that - take care of the future. Somehow internal problems will be solved, but what about external ones? These generals could not consult with classmates, colleagues, etc. .. Therefore, it is obvious that the CIA, etc. everyone knew. And why not leak - the Russians are FOR, the GDP itself has repeatedly said that the problem is in the hands of Turkey, and not in hardworking Turks ?! But who could know and calculate what GDP would do? In the CIA, they started to take exactly by pull, if they do not see beyond their nose, then it was necessary to hide this from Russia for sure. hi
        3. Lord_Bran
          Lord_Bran 28 July 2016 09: 35
          0
          For us, yes. However, to trust Erdogash after a troubled fuss with the downing of our plane is the height of insanity. I think that his ass was firmly taken from two sides.
    2. theadenter
      theadenter 27 July 2016 22: 08
      +1
      He is not completely ruining the country. It destroys human freedom in the country, building a totalitarian state.
      This is a manifestation of weakness.
      1. Shurik70
        Shurik70 27 July 2016 22: 21
        +12
        Quote: theadenter

        It destroys human freedom in the country

        Freedom, it is different.
        There is freedom of speech.
        And there is freedom to pour slop, and not be responsible for the lies.
        Personally, my opinion - strict dictatorship and absolute censorship specifically for the Turks will only benefit. And the residents themselves, and their neighbors.
        These guys have not grown to a culture of freedom.
        However, censorship will not hurt our media either, at least large fines for intentional lies or reprints of unverified rumors.
        1. theadenter
          theadenter 27 July 2016 22: 35
          0
          The fact that they have not grown is understandable, and the matter is, to a greater extent, in religion and traditions. But the fact that Erdogan is not entirely sane and will be a dictator is not good enough.

          I agree about the Russian media. But only about the central media and popular news publications. Bloggers should have the right to their point of view.
      2. Khariton
        Khariton 27 July 2016 22: 25
        -4
        If we take it on faith that all the military and civilian officials already detained and removed from work and service in Turkey, numbering more than 10 thousand people, were involved in the conspiracy, then the intelligence service is working very poorly.

        It’s bad, and now all the intelligence services in the world are gathering Turkish dissatisfied ... And we will accept Erdogan ... And look into his eyes .. And what will he offer us? Turkey is a member of NATO if anyone forgot! hi
    3. siberalt
      siberalt 27 July 2016 22: 28
      +6
      I present a picture. Residence for the rest of Erdogan. The sultan lies in a hammock in a dressing gown with an wet towel on his head and thinks about his people. On the right hand, a cup of coffee smokes in Turkish, on the left - some servants scurry around with hookah, others drive away annoying flies. The wife, having prepared a sorbet, feeds almonds who have lowered the wings of peacocks from the heat. “Moscow is on the wire,” the security chief ran up to the sultan's cellphone. - Alle, Erdogan is listening. - Listen, how are you there? Is it rare, Jepik! You have 30 minutes to get out of your villa, or you’ll be soaked in the toilet. You understood me? This was followed by short beeps. laughing
      1. Mountain shooter
        Mountain shooter 28 July 2016 01: 24
        +4
        Most likely, it was so! The only person who could call DIRECT, bypassing secretaries, security and so on, so on, so on ... Only GDP. After our intelligence warned the Turkish, and then reported upstairs that there was "no sniffing", and nothing happened. Most likely, that is why this very intelligence is being smashed.
    4. Denis Obukhov
      Denis Obukhov 28 July 2016 00: 02
      +5
      Russia needs control over the straits. Of course, Erdogan is a jackal, not a "goldfish", but why is the shaitan not joking when Allah is asleep ...
  2. dmi.pris
    dmi.pris 27 July 2016 21: 37
    +6
    The title of the article is strange .. What Turkey was, this is what it is. What is "Another Turkey" I still do not understand.
    1. hirurg
      hirurg 27 July 2016 21: 44
      +5
      The author asks a question.
      Can Turkey get out of NATO?
      And here is how to know .. how to know ...
      God works in mysterious ways. Who knows what Erdogan will agree with the GDP. And the meeting is getting ready serious.
      1. cniza
        cniza 27 July 2016 21: 50
        +8
        Turkey may become a sacred victim, the United States, by any, will look for options for punishing Turkey.
        1. hirurg
          hirurg 27 July 2016 22: 04
          +5
          In order to understand a person.
          You need to try to stand in his place.
          If you want, get into his skin.
          So Erdogan believes, in my opinion, that he was thrown both by the United States and the West.
          And not just thrown, but were possible from the reasons for the failed coup.
          At the moment, he does not feel support from outside.
          Therefore, seeking support from Russia.
          But Russia and NATO are incompatible things.
          And by repression, he simply cleans the rear. Excessively tough but effective. After all, an attempted coup is not a joke.
          1. NIKNN
            NIKNN 27 July 2016 23: 15
            +3
            Quote: hirurg
            So Erdogan believes
            He doesn’t think, he knows exactly who and where he was thrown, it’s impossible not to know at such a position even after such events ... and he is going with a specific problem, but we can either assume that they are the most daring to consider.
            Come on, we’ll find out. :)
      2. The comment was deleted.
      3. Alex_Tug
        Alex_Tug 27 July 2016 22: 20
        +3
        hirurg
        God works in mysterious ways. Who knows what Erdogan will agree with the GDP.


        - About NATO is unlikely to be a conversation. In this regard, we can talk about nuclear warheads. Rather, the states themselves are now interested in removing them from Turkey.
        - The main issues are Syria, Kurds, the Black Sea.
        - Possible recognition of the Crimea (how to bargain, if you resume the project of the Turkish gas hub, then it is)
        - tourists, tomatoes - these are trifles. (for 5-10 minutes of conversation)
        1. Kasym
          Kasym 28 July 2016 00: 46
          +6
          Tourists, tomatoes, construction, consumer goods, nuclear power plants and the Turkish stream - these are far from trifles. These are millions of Turks in villages. hoz., service, trade, easily. industry. and construction. These are jobs and good electoral ratings to maintain power. This is energy - the foundation of any economy. This will be the main thing for Erdogan (and not 5-10 minutes) - he needs concessions and the resumption of large projects - but what in return !? He had been stuttering about the TS for a long time - now he probably understood how much he needed it in order to have the sale of traditional goods and access to energy resources.

          GDP can relax and smile sweetly at a meeting, expecting Erdogan to offer - time works for us. With Syria and with the opposition of the Turks will cope. Erdogan is in no condition to supply bearded men in Syria for free - whether he wants to or not, but now there are clearly few sponsors. Therefore, soon everything will end in Syria - without people and ammunition you will not particularly turn around. But GDP can give excellent advice to the Kurds and will surely find with whom Erdogan can sit at the negotiating table - his Kadyrov among the Kurds and the example of Chechnya as a fight against terror. So Erdogan needs GDP like no other; and not vice versa. Therefore, Erdogan needs to offer something worthwhile to the Kremlin. This is obvious - they will just not give us this thrice-beaten eastern bargainer in return. But if GDP gives the go-ahead for Tours. stream, nuclear power plant, etc., then clearly the beaten sultan guaranteed something (it guaranteed - otherwise, who would believe him). hi
  3. Reserve officer
    Reserve officer 27 July 2016 21: 37
    +2
    Repression and purges never made the country stronger. There are a lot of examples.
    This is only a means of strengthening personal power. As a rule, professionals are removed, people of a lower level come, but clearly expressing personal devotion to the ruler.
    As a result, the sovereign’s ambitions are satisfied, and the country's level of development is alas ...
    1. g1v2
      g1v2 27 July 2016 22: 24
      +2
      The question is, which is better - a mega professional who works against you or is waiting for an opportunity to shoot in the back or a professional is worse, but who is on your side? Erdogan acts quite logically, seizing the moment and clearing all opponents. while taking control of all structures. When the dust is scattered in Turkey everything will be beautiful - everyone will together assure Erdogan of loyalty and strictly adhere to the party line. Now does the party line say that Russia is a friend? So everyone will express their desire to be friends with Russia. wink
    2. ando_bor
      ando_bor 27 July 2016 22: 52
      +1
      Putin also says that traditional methods of dealing with the fifth column are not effective, so let's see what Erdogan will do.
  4. Hunt
    Hunt 27 July 2016 21: 37
    0
    Erdogan is so sad in the photo! And in my head there is only one thought "if I were the Sultan I would ....., ......."
  5. Trick shot
    Trick shot 27 July 2016 21: 38
    +1
    T.N. "crisis" among the Turks? How to look at it ...
    So far they have achieved almost everything they require. From everyone with whom they only managed to talk. Let not to the extent that they want, but they organize their Wishlist, where by deflection, where by horror stories supposedly of their "need".
    So let it be mediated, but they organized a crisis with us.
    Those who believe that Turk tomatoes can be pushed out of store shelves, replacing them with their own, have already taken out bank loans and organized greenhouse farms under spring considerable interest.
    And then just in time - the vegetables ripened, you can pay off the loans, but already "the steamers are sailing - Hello boy" with cheap tomatoes from Turkey.
    They will remain on the shelves. And their rot in the ditches ...
    What is not a crisis?
  6. Ramzaj99
    Ramzaj99 27 July 2016 21: 40
    +1
    Not a very competent article.
    It is necessary to take into account the time limit. Messages must be intercepted, translated, compared, analyzed and reported along the hierarchy up to the president. This is a long time. Moreover, it is doubtful that the details of the coup were discussed through open communications or mobile phones without the use of euphemisms. It is difficult to understand the meaning of such conversations based on the text.

    Recently I read the memoirs of one GRU officer, and so, there they learned about some kind of "movements" in the observed country, simply by the increased frequency of radio exchanges. If the usual number of messages in the region through closed and monitored channels increases significantly, it is clear that something extraordinary is happening and all relevant services immediately react to this.
    1. bk316
      bk316 27 July 2016 21: 50
      +2
      Quote: Ramzaj99
      Recently read a memoir of a GRU officer

      Do you read an hour rezun? In the aquarium, such an opus is present.
      This I know why? On a modern closed communication channel it is impossible to understand the number of messages. This was taken care of another 85 years.
      1. Ramzaj99
        Ramzaj99 27 July 2016 22: 02
        +3
        Quote: bk316
        This I know why? On a modern closed communication channel it is impossible to understand the number of messages.

        And you first learn to read carefully.
        closed and TRACKABLE
        If the military suddenly begins an intense radio exchange, for no apparent reason, you don’t have to be a genius to understand that something is happening.
        1. bk316
          bk316 27 July 2016 22: 28
          +2
          It would be possible to attach pictures to the PM, I would send you a picture of the operational on-duty main communication security control center laughing
          And even this is not supposed to. So use the memoirs ....
    2. Alex_Tug
      Alex_Tug 27 July 2016 23: 23
      0
      On the other hand, one does not have to discount the proven method - information from agents. If Erdogan says that he learned about the putsch from his son-in-law, then the probability is high - the message came from a third force. Actually, Turkish intelligence (counterintelligence) would transmit information directly. And for the third force (FIG knows who or what, another intelligence or ...) this method of transmission is the only fast one through relatives.
      Erdogan was saved by the Internet, was able to appeal to the people with an appeal to go out.
      --------
      Personal analytics.
  7. Mestny
    Mestny 27 July 2016 21: 55
    -1
    Quote: hirurg
    The author asks a question.
    Can Turkey get out of NATO?

    Well, what are you, on the contrary! Everything has been clear to the author for a long time. And he actively convinces us that:
    a) When trying to leave Turkey, Turkey kirdyk, because NATO is such an all-powerful organization, a powerful and only guarantor of sovereignty and world peace.
    b) Turkey urgently needs to run to her friends, the United States, which, as the author knows for certain, is the Most Mighty and Fair Country in the world.
    1. Alex_Tug
      Alex_Tug 27 July 2016 23: 34
      +1
      You can have fun, the question of withdrawing from NATO is not on the agenda. Turkey also buys equipment like India with the localization of production. I saw the info about the production of 100 hawk-s in Turkey. I will not look for links now.
    2. Dam
      Dam 28 July 2016 00: 01
      +3
      In vain you are so about Satanovsky, a really smart man. And the fact that he predicts is not quite what we like, well, such karma. Erdogan will not leave NATO, for a bunch of reasons he will not leave. If only because they will not release. But if at the same time he becomes a strikebreaker there, as, for example, the Greeks, then this is already a big victory
  8. BARKAS
    BARKAS 27 July 2016 22: 02
    +1
    The author clearly got excited with some conclusions, for example, there were times worse with the severity of the crisis and the attitude of Americans towards Erdogan after a failed coup will not be openly negative!
  9. Bakht
    Bakht 27 July 2016 22: 09
    +3
    Interception and communication to a potential adversary is clearly not plausible. The article quite correctly noted that this means a plaintext message to Brussels: "we read your ciphers." This is all from the realm of fantasy. Essen has shown how this is done in reality.

    In general, the article is correct. In my opinion, of course.
  10. atamankko
    atamankko 27 July 2016 22: 10
    0
    It takes time to understand what is happening in Turkey.
  11. aba
    aba 27 July 2016 22: 34
    0
    If we take it on faith that all those already detained and removed from work and service in Turkey participated in the conspiracy military and civilian ranks of more than 10 thousand people, then the intelligence service is working very poorly.

    It seems to me that if so many people participated in the rebellion, they would not have failed.
    1. ando_bor
      ando_bor 27 July 2016 22: 59
      +1
      They did not necessarily participate directly, this is a sphere of American influence, here, on the example of Turkey, it can be well considered, they are in power in any country, in many countries, in Ukraine - they seized power, in Europe they control. In Russia there is, but in a depressed state.
  12. fa2998
    fa2998 27 July 2016 22: 49
    +1
    Quote: dmi.pris
    The title is strange in the article .. What Turkey was, such is

    Especially in Russian-Turkish relations. After secret messages to the president (which no one has ever seen), and then denials in the Turkish press, they say, no one apologized. But again, secret telephone conversations between the presidents - TURKEY DID NOT DO ANYTHING MORE! changed the course towards Turkey. And charters, and tourists, and economic cooperation. Anti-Turkish propaganda stopped, helped Erdogan during the coup, surrendered the coup. about "impudent Russia" - invaded the airspace, and about the right measures of Turkey - about the destruction of our Su-24. And then silence! In front of whom beads with a sword? angry hi
  13. Army soldier2
    Army soldier2 27 July 2016 22: 49
    +2
    I consider Satanovsky to be the best orientalist and always read his articles with pleasure. Today for the first time, until I reached the author, I did not understand that this was his article.
    The article is interesting, but there are questions regarding the military aspect and Turkey-NATO relations.
    1. bk316
      bk316 27 July 2016 22: 59
      +4
      Quote: Army 2
      Today for the first time, until I reached the author, I did not understand that this was his article.

      Well, it’s based on the materials of Starodubtsev and Scheglovin, so it’s probably so.
  14. biserino
    biserino 27 July 2016 22: 51
    -1
    fuck turkey.
  15. biserino
    biserino 27 July 2016 23: 04
    0
    Historically, over the past 300 years, the political kisses and divorces between Russia and Turkey have been love to obscure each other's series with the West, which they now associate with us. Haha
    1. ando_bor
      ando_bor 27 July 2016 23: 40
      0
      Turkey and Russia have completely different interests, with the exception of economic interests, but it makes sense to talk with Turkey and will agree on something - it is trying to pursue an independent policy, for which Erdogan is trying to punish, it makes no sense to talk with you, everything is for you in America have decided.
    2. lelikas
      lelikas 27 July 2016 23: 41
      0
      Quote: biserino
      Historically, over the past 300 years, the political kisses and divorces between Russia and Turkey have been love to obscure each other's series with the West, which they now associate with us. Haha

      And why, you, invited Edorgan, on the anniversary of liberation from the Ottoman yoke?
  16. iliitchitch
    iliitchitch 27 July 2016 23: 12
    +1
    To dump a hammock is a new word in politics. And how fast it is! It will be necessary now. And they said - that the FSB is no good ...
  17. Res_Ullus
    Res_Ullus 27 July 2016 23: 22
    +1
    Give a link to the broadcast plz. Where did he say that? Thank.
  18. shinobi
    shinobi 28 July 2016 03: 46
    0
    It seems that it finally came to Erdogan that it is better to be friends with Russia. Unlike the United States, we do not abandon friends as soon as it starts to smell like losses. And we do not scam our partners, that for the Yankees there is "butter on bread on the ground.
  19. Knizhnik
    Knizhnik 28 July 2016 06: 14
    0
    This is illustrated by the activities of the embassy residency of MIT in Moscow.

    Wow sources from Satanovsky ...
    Erdogan's Komsomol members, by definition, have lowered the level of intelligence, the author said. It seems to me that it doesn't matter where the scout "came" from, the main thing is preparation, but here, apparently, the problem is. They have transferred their personnel, they don't want to train in the USA - they will recruit, in Israel they don't want to - the relationship is not very good.
    In general, when you read about the thousands of people arrested, the first thought is - who will work in this country?
  20. isker
    isker 28 July 2016 06: 16
    0
    Withdrawal of Turkey from NATO - the GDP itself will not allow! What a chance now - your "agent of influence"! Information, especially - directly - is never superfluous!
    So there is only one way out - to contribute as much as possible - to the enthronement of Erdog. Endon on his throne, and he in return - a couple of "sweets", because where is he, spat upon by everyone, from the minaret? ..
    at least so, at least for Russia - solid advantages.
  21. capitosha1rang
    capitosha1rang 28 July 2016 06: 17
    +1
    "The main question - why warn Erdogan about the mutiny - remains open."
    What is not clear here? Well-designed and well-conducted operation of the CBP (?).
    Shuganuli of a frantic Turk at the very last moment, leaving him no time to think - and this is the result - thousands of officers, including senior officers, one and a half hundred military prosecutors only, three thousand judges, diplomats, faculty members were incapacitated (arrested or fired) composition, etc. etc.
    The fleet, aviation, intelligence and security are all under suspicion and all under attack.
    Erdogan, whom Putin spent as a crucian, defeated Turkish state institutions in two weeks cleaner than any aggressor. How many years will Turkey restore its former power, five, ten?
    And also - the public opinion of the EU and NATO, after the inevitable executions of the "rebels"?
    No, simpletons like Erdogan are not born every day!
  22. Wolka
    Wolka 28 July 2016 06: 51
    0
    everything on the shelves, everything is simple, everything is predictable, Turkey as before, all the events in it are historically repeated with enviable constancy to one degree or another, everything from the fact that Turkey was always on the edge of a knife in someone else’s fight, although at first glance it seems that Turkey is a completely independent power, and the British and Yankees understand this well, as usual, the narrow-minded bullies are always required ...
  23. komel
    komel 28 July 2016 07: 07
    0
    President Erdogan embarked on a slippery path of reforming the army along the lines of Iran, where ideology replaces professional qualities. The war in Syria has shown the inability of such an army to fight any successfully for a long time. The Iranians could not hold the front in Syria, which led to the arrival at the theater of military operations there Russian videoconferencing.

    Perhaps Turkey and Iran need reforms in the army.
    1. ando_bor
      ando_bor 28 July 2016 08: 53
      0
      Turkey wants to have its own army, and not an American branch of local meat, Turkey has not acceded to anti-Rostis sanctions, you need to understand US policy - such things are not forgiven to the head of the NATO member country, it won’t pass through the elections, a putsch followed, but most likely punishment with the downed Russian plane began.
      And the fact that you call professionals US agents of influence, they also exist in other areas, the media, education, and government officials, Erdogan has well defined this circle, in Ukraine they managed to capture them soberly, the configuration of the agents of influence and their methods of action are similar, with some features .