News the blocs are full of reports on building up NATO military capabilities at our borders, including in the republics of the former USSR. It was decided to deploy four alliance battalions of one thousand fighters each in the Baltic countries and Poland. Given that the standard battalion is about 300 people, units of a thousand are more likely to be like an advanced echelon of double-based units. And the Polish army itself is quite numerous and well-equipped, and the country's military-political leadership is extremely aggressive against Russia. Discusses the possibility of joining NATO, a traditionally neutral Sweden, and even the former USSR ally, Finland.
All this is when the West turns off activity on the Syrian and Ukrainian directions. The anti-Assad rhetoric is mitigated, the United States proposes to launch joint Russian-American attacks on terrorists in Syria (while refusing to provide data on the location of the “moderate” armed opposition, which is said to be impossible to beat). Even Poroshenkov's provocation with a failed attack on Debaltseve did not provoke a reaction not only from the political elite of the West, but even in their media, although it was a very profitable excuse for promoting another wave of anti-Russian hysteria and accusing Moscow of “violating the Minsk agreements”.
An interesting contradiction: on the one hand, there is an obvious build-up of NATO’s joint forces near our borders, which, if there are no reasons for such actions, should be accompanied by anti-Russian stuffing, and on the other hand, on the contrary, a decrease in the intensity of the information war against Russia and even a demonstration of goodwill gestures. This indicates one thing: the strategy of the West has changed. The question arises: what can it be?
The geopolitical situation in the world and the desire of the Western elites for world domination unequivocally dictate their goal-setting with regard to Russia: complete control or dismemberment with the destruction of our country. The probable method of achieving this goal has hardly changed. The Russian nuclear potential has not gone away and is even being updated, therefore you will not apply brute force here, there remains a hybrid war, for successfully conducting which you must first achieve a significant reduction in authority of the authority corresponding to the economic and socio-political situation within the victim country, as well as a favorable international situation to justify the occupation.
With this just tight. Russia in recent years has shown some success in international affairs. It was possible to thwart the transformation of Ukraine into a full-fledged springboard for western aggression — the Russian Crimea, and the DPR and LPR form a buffer that prevents direct “export of the Maidan.”
In Syria, Russia broke the game of overthrowing Assad, forcing the United States and its allies to accept our rules of the game. In the future, this war can be very dangerous for Russia. However, the minimum goal has been achieved - the immediate defeat of the Syrian statehood and the transformation of the country into a springboard of terrorism has been prevented. And this means that at this stage the possibility of a new deployment of terrorist groups in Russia (through the Caucasus and Central Asia) is excluded.
All this significantly raised the rating of the President of the Russian Federation in public opinion not only here, but also abroad. Attempts by the liberals to organize unrest in the country failed at the very beginning - the people and the real patriotic opposition rejected them, and the authorities demonstrated their determination to use force against the troublemakers.
It became obvious that for the USA to solve the problem of Russia in the framework of the previously adopted strategy of economic and informational rough pressure is unlikely to work. States need a change in the very logic of relations.
TMR - weak link
After the failure of the operation in Ukraine, it will be very difficult or impossible to create a bridgehead of a hybrid war directly on our borders. It remains to look for the regions, to draw Russia into a limited military conflict in which it would look like an aggressor and at the same time could not deploy a significant grouping of its armed forces. In Syria, our country is already recognized by public opinion as a country really fighting terrorism. In Central Asia, in repelling the aggression of the Islamic radicals of the Russian Federation, it will look like a defending side and, in addition, will strengthen its position in the former Soviet republics, acting as the savior of the ruling elites there.
The region remains, due to the peculiarities of the geostrategic position and the current internal situation, which is perfectly suitable for organizing an anti-Russian provocation, in which any of our actions can be a loser. Speech about Transnistria. Sandwiched between Western-controlled Moldavia and Ukraine, which has no access to the sea, it is extremely vulnerable. In case of overlapping of the borders with these hostile countries by both Russia and Transnistrian Moldavian states, the unrecognized republic will be in a position much more difficult than Leningrad in the 1941 year, because it does not even have the Road of Life. In the case of the blockade of the PMR, Russia will face the need to save 200 thousands of compatriots who are citizens of Russia, as well as its armed forces grouping stationed there.
Maidan for Tiraspol
In Transnistria, there is a growing conflict between the legislative and executive branches, and the socio-economic problems are aggravated, largely caused by the actions of the republic’s leadership. So, the internal situation for creating problems of Russia in the TMR is developing favorably.
The local big business makes serious complaints to the president of the republic for the fact that gas prices for enterprises, including Russian ones operating in Transnistria, have risen substantially in the region. As a result, the main investor, Alisher Usmanov, left the PMR. The leaders of the PMR business community are outraged that President Shevchuk has put people close to him to manage the metallurgical plant, the largest enterprise in the region. In the end - a huge loss, which now fell on the entire population. The head of customs appointed friend of the president. Many associate with this increase in smuggling. Persecution of Transnistrian entrepreneurs began in Moldova, and the business community believes that the president of the republic is not taking effective measures to protect its citizens.
In 2015, the executive made a decision to cut salaries by 30 percent. Part of the enterprises were transferred to the four-day. However, representatives of the Supreme Council of the PMR assert: they carried out checks showing that there was money, but for unknown reasons they did not give it to pensioners and state employees.
A number of experts claim that there is a man-made financial crisis in Transnistria. There is currency in the republic, but it is not sold to the population, entrepreneurs and enterprises. The siloviki do not struggle with currency speculators, although this issue can be resolved within 24 hours.
The economic indicators of the republic are also sad. Over the past four years, the fall in GDP was about 20 percent, the national currency was devalued by one and a half, which resulted in a rise in prices for essential goods. Real incomes of state employees and pensioners fell by almost a third. At five - ten percent decreased the level of investment. In the real economy, reduced to ten thousand jobs. The tax burden on the economy increased 1,3 times, the budget deficit for social items reached 10 percent of GDP.
Thus, in the Transdniestrian Moldavian Republic there is a crisis of the ruling elite, reminiscent of the pre-mayor Ukraine. This creates extremely favorable conditions for destabilizing the situation.
The intensity and quality of the work of the western embassies with young people of the TMR and creative people is extremely high and differs by thematic variety, large-scale audience coverage. This activity is supported by various foreign organizations. The British, Americans, Poles, Dutch and Swedes, as well as the European Union, the United Nations and the UNDP, under the program “Supporting Confidence Building Measures”, are showing traditional activity in the public and political life of the republic.
The British focus on working with young people, focusing on the point processing of its leaders. The main channel is the program "Takeoff". It identifies leaders, organizes their training, and monitors further activities. Funding for this project from the British Embassy in the PMR and Moldova for 2016 was doubled compared with 2015.
Americans are mainly focused on the work on the grant system. They pay for various programs (development of democracy, etc.), paying special attention to expanding their influence in the media. In particular, their support is enjoyed by the Transnistrian media center. Center for American Culture at PSU them. T.G. Shevchenko is actively developing cooperation with the student audience. Striving for the fullest coverage of this environment, they, like the English, distinguish people with whom they work more closely.
The Poles, the Dutch and the Swedes finance non-governmental organizations that deal mainly with social issues. Priorities: support of national minorities and women in politics, development of interaction with local administrations. Foreigners allocate funds for the repair of social institutions. Actively support commercial projects in villages.
There is a great activity of the OSCE mission, which works closely with creative unions. This year, UNDP has allocated over three million euros for projects in Transnistria. There is a UN program to strengthen confidence-building measures, which are influenced by leaders in the field of sports and culture.
An analysis of the activities of European embassies and Western NGOs shows that by providing assistance to Transnistria, in which mental affinity with Russia is preserved, the West seeks to gradually squeeze our spiritual presence from the region.
The blockade begins
It can be stated: in the PMR, the internal conditions for organizing a social explosion are in full swing. The West is not limited to "humanitarian" pressure. The latest data from the Transdniestrian Moldavian Republic testify that the neighboring states are preparing for a complete blockade of the republic.
It is clear that from a moral and psychological point of view, it is impossible to take and declare such a thing - it is unlikely that it can be justified by public opinion of the same West, not to mention other countries. And this means that the subsequent actions of Russia, including the most harsh ones, can be understood and even justified. Therefore, apparently, the blockade is introduced gradually.
Numerous stories of citizens of the PMR paint a rather alarming picture. To date, for 200 thousands of Russian citizens have remained the only unclosed exit from this territory and the one on the territory of Moldova - Chisinau Airport. The situation with the movement of residents of the PMR through this transport hub is estimated as follows: “I left Transnistria - there is no way back. Deportation at Chisinau airport. And that's all. Apartment, parents - all out of access. Everything remained in Transnistria. Through Ukrainian posts for men with Russian citizenship exit from the territory of Transnistria is closed. Even if a person travels with his children, wife, parents. In Moldova now there are no pro-Russian political forces. This country is too dependent on the West. ”
The attitude of the Moldovan authorities towards Russia and the PMR is demonstrated by their practical actions: “On May 9 there was a scandal. Local authorities arranged an exhibition of NATO armored vehicles right on the central square of Chisinau on the eve of our common holiday. This is so that children, youth get used to, believe that it should be so. This year in Chisinau, the pedestal was removed historical tank T-34. Before that, the streets were renamed. Alexei Belsky is no longer the hero who raised the Red Banner over the liberated Chisinau in 1944. Everything is very similar to Ukrainian scenarios. Rename, destroy Soviet monuments. ”
Ukraine is not far behind. She cackles weapons near the borders of the PMR. An informed source from the republic’s security agency, who wishes to remain anonymous, says: “You know what is happening in Ukraine. Bringing troops to Transnistria. Although our population is a little over 400 thousand, mostly old people, women, children. Minefields were established at the border. Pull up armored vehicles.
The preparation for a full-fledged blockade of the Transdniestrian Moldavian Republic from Moldova and Ukraine is in full swing and the goal is simple - to make Transdniestrians follow in the footsteps of their neighbors towards European integration. Then the West can agree that the Transnistrian Moldavian Republic remains independent from Moldova by the state, the main thing is to control it, that the Russian bridgehead in the south-western strategic direction be destroyed.
For Moscow, this will be a serious military-political defeat, especially dangerous both militarily and in terms of internal stability.
If Russia will have to solve the problem of a de-blockade of the republic, this can be done only by military means. The country will be represented by the aggressor and NATO will oppose it. It is unlikely that the conflict will reach a nuclear threshold. However, taking into account the military-strategic situation and the peculiarities of the geographical location of the zone of probable conflict, Russia will face a military defeat in it.
If we do not take adequate measures to lift the blockade or Transnistrian Moldavian Republic in the form in which we know it, it will collapse as a result of the Transnistrian Maidan, this will also be a serious political defeat for our country.
Unfortunately, we have to admit that for the time being, Russian support for the PMR is limited to the economic sphere. However, this is not enough. The dense and active work with the Transnistrian population is necessary. Meanwhile, unlike the West of the Russian Federation, it rather imitates its active. According to experts, only RISS and the Union of Russian Communities show noticeable activity in the PMR. Moreover, Europeans outbid pro-Russian organizations - since funding from the Russian Federation does not come in, Western institutions take on the financing of capable active young leaders and their teams, gradually pushing their agenda. It should be noted that in Ukraine for many years preceding the Maidan 2013 – 2014, there was a similar situation. The result we are seeing today. Interestingly, no one bore responsibility for the failure. And it’s a pity, and I’m involuntarily recalled that in 30-s, the title of “Traitor to the Motherland” would have been guilty of such a thing. Probably right.