Military Review

Turkish decomposed. Erdogan, fundamentalists and sad prospects of the country

The attempted military coup in Turkey, which took place on 15-16 in July of 2016, was suppressed quickly and without particular loss for the ruling regime. This is explained, as we have already noted in previous materials of “Turkish breakdowns”, firstly, a significant weakening of the army during the years of Erdogan’s rule - the prudent president carried out unprecedented “cleansings”, as a result of which almost every eighth soldier left the army (and this is, of course , not about soldiers - conscripts, but about generals, senior and middle officers), and secondly - Erdogan’s mass support among religiously and conservatively-minded people. It was to the people of Turkey that Erdogan appealed to take to the streets - and to the streets, of course, people took to the streets. True, not all, but radical supporters of religious fundamentalist organizations. In turn, the military did not enlist the support of the people. And this is explained very simply - the goals that the conspirators set for themselves disagree with the interests of the part of Turkish society most negatively disposed towards the policy of Erdogan - the Kurdish national movement, the Alevis, the left radicals. Erdogan really enjoys great support from the Turkish population, especially since over the years of his rule a new generation of young Turks has grown up, which has already been brought up on the departure from secular values ​​created by Mustafa Kemal Ataturk and more sympathetic to religious and fundamentalist views.

Turkish decomposed. Erdogan, fundamentalists and sad prospects of the country

Erdogan never hid his affiliation with religious and conservative circles and, in fact, was able to come to power precisely because of the disappointment of a large part of the Turkish population in the policies of a secular state. This was facilitated by objective circumstances - for example, globalization, the further expansion of Western mass culture into Turkish society, which could not be perceived positively by its conservative part. In addition, the social component of religious-fundamentalist organizations played an important role - it is no secret that they are actively working with the basic strata of Turkish society, organizing real help to the needy. Finally, Erdogan’s patriotic rhetoric was also important, as were hopes to unite the various ethnic groups that make up the Turkish people with a single religious identity - after all, religion does not know “neither Turk, nor Kurd, nor Circassian,” to paraphrase a well-known statement. Erdogan himself also hoped to solve the Kurdish issue precisely by asserting common religious values ​​for Turks and Sunni Kurds.

The “Arab Spring” and, especially, the war in Syria finally dotted the “i” and demonstrated to Erdogan’s world-wide cooperation with the religious-fundamentalist forces of the Middle East and North Africa. This policy of the Turkish president has caused outrage in the West, primarily in the European Union, which not so long ago very favorably treated Turkey as a secular country. Reproaches and then direct accusations against Erdogan became more and more frequent - that he cooperated with the Islamic State (an organization banned in Russia), with a number of other terrorist and extremist groups in Syria and Iraq, that he pursues a policy of discrimination against the Kurdish population and other national minorities of the country. A demonstration of the changed attitude towards Erdogan was the recognition of the Armenian Genocide in the Ottoman Empire, first by French and then by German parliamentarians. But Erdogan does not count on the support of the European Union - he has long been determined with his own political goals and needs, and with the circle of his closest allies.

When in the Turkish cities suppression of military actions took place, it was radical fundamentalists who took to the streets. Strong men, most with beards, - they were the ones who beat the detained military, arranged for them a “public spanking”, with the silent acquiescence of the authorities, who, it seemed, should have stopped illegal actions. Erdogan spoke about the revival of the death penalty in Turkey. To a certain extent, the failed military coup helped him to further strengthen his own power, once again confirmed the image of a strong and authoritarian leader who is ready to deal with his enemies uncompromisingly.

In Russia, the events surrounding the coup in Turkey caused a mixed reaction. Some welcomed the conspirators, counting on the overthrow of the odious Erdogan, others, on the contrary, blamed the American intelligence services for what was happening and said that the conspirators were no better for Russia, and worse than Erdogan, if only because they could start building openly pro-American politics. Like, Erdogan recently turned again to face Russia, and among the detained putschists there were also air force officers who were directly involved in the attack on the Russian Su-24 aircraft. Maybe this is so, but the main nuance should be taken into account. Recep Erdogan and his supporters and sympathizers belong to a very clear worldview paradigm - this is religious fundamentalism + neo-Ottomanism. Ideologically close forces are waging war in Syria against the troops of Bashar al-Assad, supported by the Russian aviation, and against the Kurdish national movement. It doesn’t matter whether the Turkish military directly participate in this war or not, it is important that the ideology of Erdogan and the Syrian anti-government opposition of a fundamentalist religion is almost identical, with the caveat that the latter are much more radical, and Erdogan is constrained by his status as President of Turkey, in which is inhabited not only by Sunni Muslims, but also Alevites, Shiites, Christians. Of course, Erdogan has a very negative attitude towards national minorities and does not even hide this attitude (for example, he called the Democratic Party of Nations “the party of Armenians” during the election race, although this characteristic is completely devoid of any negative meaning outside the Armenian-phobic coordinate system of Turkish nationalism) but nevertheless he is forced to reckon with the opinion of the world community. At least, he was forced to see how things will be after the suppression of the recent coup attempt, is still unknown.

The strategic interests of religious-fundamentalist organizations, rooted in Turkey and enjoying the support or connivance of the Turkish leadership, have always included extending their influence to the post-Soviet space. We are talking about the republics of Central Asia, Azerbaijan, as well as the territories belonging to the Russian Federation - the republics of the North Caucasus, the Volga region, some regions of southern Russia, including the Krasnodar and Stavropol Territories, the Rostov Region, the Astrakhan Region, and more recently Crimea. Here, at the turn of the 1980-x - 1990-x. radical fundamentalist organizations sponsored by Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Turkey launched an active propaganda and propaganda activity.

For Turkey, as a state claiming to be a regional power, cooperation with religious-fundamentalist organizations brings many benefits and advantages. First of all, it provides an opportunity to form networks and cells controlled by Turkish special services in all regions of strategic interest to Turkey - and this is the Middle East, Central Asia, and the Caucasus, and the Crimea, and the Volga region, and even the Urals and Siberia. On one Pan-Turkism you will not get far, and the ideology of religious fundamentalism allows using even non-Turkic peoples in the interests of Turkey. Therefore, many analysts talk about the prospects for Erdogan’s cooperation with religious fundamentalists. For example, political analyst and orientalist Fahreddin Abbaszoda in an interview with Nezavisimaya Gazeta stressed that Erdogan is likely to continue to make a major stake in radical forces.

However, not all radical-fundamentalist organizations are ready to cooperate with Erdogan, and the Turkish President himself, in turn, does not intend to cooperate with all of them. Rapid suppression of a military coup in Turkey was one of the first to be greeted by Hizb ut-Tahrir al-Islami (KhTI, in the Russian Federation this organization was banned by a court decision). Recall that this is one of the oldest fundamentalist organizations in the world, operating not only in the Middle East, but also in Turkey, Pakistan, Southeast Asia, Central Asia and Transcaucasia. It was created in 1953 by a Sharia judge from Jerusalem, Takiouddin an-Nabhani. 14 February 2003 was declared by the Supreme Court of the Russian Federation Hizb ut-Tahrir al-Islami a terrorist organization and banned in the territory of the Russian Federation. Nevertheless, in Ukraine KhTI continued its activities almost legally - including in the Crimea, where it had a great influence on the radical Crimean-Tatar youth. After the reunification of the Crimea with Russia, the activities of the CTI fell into the range of attention of the Russian special services. A number of operations against the cells operating in Yalta and Alushta were conducted by state security agencies and the police, and a number of lawsuits were conducted against the participants of the organization.

As is known, the main political goal of KhTI is the construction of a caliphate. This goal, in turn, is supported by Recep Erdogan, who is not devoid of ambitious plans to enter history as a restorer of the Ottoman Empire (in other words, the New Caliphate). At the same time, neither KhTI nor Erdogan welcome the activities of the IG (prohibited in Russia), which also adheres to the idea of ​​building a Caliphate. In this position, the CTI and the Turkish president are closing in. The next important point on which the positions of Erdogan and the above-named organization are close is the attitude to Fethullah Gülen and his Hizmet movement. Both KTI and Erdogan are staunch opponents of Gulen and Gulenism - not only because Gulen and the movement created by him are important competitors and rivals in the struggle to influence the minds of the inhabitants of Muslim countries and regions, but also because Gulen, who preaches democracy and tolerance, goes against the more radical and orthodox views of both the Turkish president and religious fundamentalists. Therefore, there is nothing strange in the fact that in Erdogan’s confrontation with supporters of Gulen, the radical fundamentalists were on the side of the Turkish president and, at the first call of the head of state, took to the streets to oppose an attempted military coup.

The most important question is whether Recep Erdogan and his supporters - the religious-conservative and fundamentalist forces of Turkey - will succeed in continuing the course on further abandoning secular values ​​and management models. In the failed coup attempt and mass purges in the Turkish armed forces, we see that Erdogan practically managed to level out the resistance of the Turkish military elite. Part of the military elite is still on the side of Erdogan, being integrated into his financial and political schemes, the majority of unwanted military men have long been arrested or, at best, dismissed.

The police and special services of the country, the judicial system, the prosecutor's office — everywhere Erdogan conducts harsh repressions against the Kemalists and claims his supporters, primarily from the religious-conservative environment. But we must bear in mind that the majority of the population in entire regions of Turkey does not actually recognize the authority of Erdogan. First of all, we are talking about Turkish Kurdistan, where the Kurdish national movement is already leading a real civil war against government forces. Therefore, before modern Turkey today, strictly speaking, there are two ways of development - either further conservation of the existing system and political relations, which will lead the country to totalitarian dictatorship and civil war, perhaps - to disintegration, or a fundamental change in the very model of organization of the Turkish state. But Erdogan will never go on the model offered by the Turkish left, including the Democratic Party of Nations, namely, granting autonomy to the Kurds and other national minorities of the country, stopping discrimination of national and cultural minorities. Accordingly, Turkey faces a very sad prospect.

Of course, after the suppression of the coup attempt, Erdogan will continue to strengthen his regime, suppress civil liberties and opposition, including through mass repression, including extrajudicial killings of objectionable persons. However, a significant part of the Turkish population does not agree with this situation. Mass riots will break out in large cities, guerrilla war will grow in South-Eastern Turkey, and then, quite likely, in other regions of the country. Erdogan is well aware that if Kurdish fighters in Syrian Kurdistan manage to put an end to the threat from extremist religious organizations and turn Rojava into a strong outpost of the Kurdish national movement, then they will inevitably step up their activities in the territory of Turkish Kurdistan.

By the way, in the Turkish Kurdistan in the presidential elections more than 80% voted for Selahattin Demirtas (on the photo) - the candidate of the left Democratic Party of Nations. That is, it is he, and not Erdogan, who, in all fairness, is the real “people's” president of this region. The more Erdogan will “tighten the screws” and persecute the opposition, the more stubborn will become its resistance, and if we consider that in certain regions of the country the opposition enjoys virtually the full support of the population, then it will be very, very difficult to suppress its performances. Sooner or later, Ankara may simply lose control over very impressive territories. In any case, in the situation in which Turkey now finds itself, there is a direct fault of Erdogan’s policy, which has failed to bring the country to political stability, moreover - it put it on the threshold of a full-scale civil war.

Subscribe to our Telegram channel, regularly additional information about the special operation in Ukraine, a large amount of information, videos, something that does not fall on the site:

Dear reader, to leave comments on the publication, you must sign in.
  1. Mountain shooter
    Mountain shooter 25 July 2016 06: 26
    Erdogan doesn't have much time to build a "New Ottoman Empire". And the situation is as tense. And the defeat of its own army does not contribute to the strengthening of Turkey's position as a regional leader.
    1. g1v2
      g1v2 25 July 2016 08: 42
      He had to abandon the construction of a new Ottoman Empire for a while - sadness. lol Well, Erdogan’s Turkey will be much less religious than Iran’s Ayatollah. If we find a common language with Iran and even fight with it in Syria, then what prevents us from finding a common language with Islamic Turkey? hi
      1. volot-voin
        volot-voin 25 July 2016 10: 15
        Quote: g1v2
        If we find a common language with Iran and even fight with it in Syria, then what prevents us from finding a common language with Islamic Turkey?

        Iran has no NATO bases, unlike Turkey. With Turkey, we perfectly find a common language, while the matter does not concern Syrian oil and Erdogan's income.
        1. g1v2
          g1v2 25 July 2016 18: 08
          Syrian oil is a penny for Turkey - more PR. Only 800 million dollars a year, and is divided into Turkish businessmen, ig and Kurds of Barzani. By the standards of the country - crumbs. Erdogan in overthrow of Assad for 5 years poured more than 20 billion greens, including oil here so - a small trifle. hi
    2. Lord_Bran
      Lord_Bran 25 July 2016 08: 44
      But it is beneficial for Russia to weaken Turkey without a direct collapse into pieces.
      1. Reptiloid
        Reptiloid 25 July 2016 10: 38
        It is difficult to measure the quality of "weakening". The stick cannot be overtaken. As if other beneficiaries, under the pretext of protecting a military base, did not become excessively fussy.

        But how to find a common language? If there is meanness and a dream of Turkish Crimea? Edogan would like to weaken Russia. Beaten Edogan is good, but there must be a balance.
  2. Banishing liberoids
    Banishing liberoids 25 July 2016 06: 26
    "Erdogad turned to face Russia" is impossible, because Erdogad is a jo-pa from all sides.
    1. Hunt
      Hunt 25 July 2016 06: 40
      For every cunning opa, there are ..... well, you understand!
  3. parusnik
    parusnik 25 July 2016 07: 11
    The decline of Erdogan's era has begun .. The Turks, while they carry Erdogan in their arms, let's see what happens next .. Let's wait for the massive shouting "Down with!" .. Thank you, Ilya ..
  4. inkass_98
    inkass_98 25 July 2016 07: 21
    Regarding the coup, I will put it more simply: the point is not that Erdogan has support in society, but in the weak preparation of the rebellion. Here is a pure analogue of the State Emergency Committee - everything was captured, and then "the electricity ran out" (C), there were no "violent" leaders. Who is trying to do such things in such a country with the help of a brigade? Again, first it was necessary to at least arrest Erdogan, and then announce the arrival of the new authorities due to the absence of the old ones. So they got it on the horns for haste and stupidity. And hence the version about provocation from the ruling circles arises, it is getting closer to me as this circus unfolds.
  5. aszzz888
    aszzz888 25 July 2016 07: 33
    and secondly, Erdogan’s presence of mass support among religious and conservative sections of the population.

    It is on these "strata of the population" that Erdogan's entire reliance and foreign and domestic policy are set.
  6. Lord_Bran
    Lord_Bran 25 July 2016 08: 43
    The total collapse of Turkey is absolutely not profitable. Another zone of uncontrolled chaos in Russia is useless. But as a shoulder for the lever that will break off a non-acidic piece of NATO-this is simply an invaluable gift. It is necessary to take and break. Turkey, passionately, is not a friend to us, but will nothing hurt us from using it?)
    1. blizart
      blizart 25 July 2016 08: 57
      The author, with his sadness about the future of Turkey, reminded me of Vysotsky's words about his "Song of the Long Distance Runner" - well, about Sam Brook, who is a friend. “I don’t understand the phrases of the commentators - Our Czechoslovak friends threw us another puck ?!” There is no need to be sad and bother with complex matters about the interconnection of all things. Relaxing a neighbor is beneficial period. The relaxation of a dirty neighbor is fair and sweet. If you are intimidated by the export of instability, then you have a buffer, for example Georgia.
      1. Parsec
        Parsec 25 July 2016 09: 10
        Quote: blizart
        If you are afraid of the export of instability, then you have a buffer. And this is, for example, Georgia.

        Herace buffer ...
  7. Nicola Bari
    Nicola Bari 25 July 2016 08: 52
    On the one hand, the defeat and collapse of the Turkish state in its current state is good for Russia, on the other hand, a crazy dog ​​dump will begin, Russia will have to worry about the fate of the straits, which, in turn, will cause hysteria among the "partners". A tense situation looms.
  8. aleksandrs95
    aleksandrs95 25 July 2016 10: 07
    There will be no landfill, Kurdistan will receive a third of the territory, the rest will be Turkey itself. Well, maybe the Armenians will regain the region with Ararat, if they adhere. The Kurds can be dealt with, the Armenians are not at all located in the city. The Tuoki will bring happiness to the state and the strait. stupidity, picking up a big question ourselves. This is only when it will be convenient and profitable for everyone, otherwise in the long run it will be a great political damage to the reputation.
  9. Dimm
    Dimm 25 July 2016 10: 20
    Erdogan carried out unprecedented purges in the Turkish army in 2006 with his friend, Fethullah Gulen. When the army was cleaned up and Gulen’s people were placed in command posts, Erdogan sighed calmly. And suddenly ... the arrests continued. Ministers, officials and entrepreneurs loyal to Erdogan were arrested, and Gulen declared himself a prophet. Erdogan had enough resources to push Gulen out of the country. So former friends became irreconcilable enemies. Erdogan remained president, but most of the key posts, especially in the army, remained with the followers and students of Gulen. The Turkish army from that moment ceased to be Kemalist, now it was led by the Islamists and Erdogan they did not want to obey and not really obey. The attempted coup in Turkey was carried out precisely by radical Islamists, and not by a democratically minded army, in case of victory of which to drag Russia into the war, it would not be at all difficult. The story with our plane, it seems, was really organized not by Erdogan. This also explains the reaction of our president.
    Most Turks hate Erdogan and hate it precisely for flirting with the Islamists. They took to the streets not out of great love for their president, but in order to save their country from radical Islam.
    Why wasn't Erdogan's plane shot down? Very simple. The presidential plane, taking off, includes an electronic notification - "I, the presidential plane." During the flight of Erdogan, several civilian planes took off along with his board. The notification was turned off, it was not possible to guess which plane was with the president and which with civilians. By knocking everything down, the Islamists lost their legitimacy.
    1. Tektor
      Tektor 25 July 2016 11: 49
      Most Turks hate Erdogan and hate it precisely for flirting with the Islamists.
      This is the point: where is the guarantee that radicals will not come instead of Erdogan? They have already entrenched in the territory of Turkey in the famous camps. And here is such a dainty opportunity to get the country in more Syria ... The fact that Erdogan remained in power at the moment is a significant plus for us.
  10. Reptiloid
    Reptiloid 25 July 2016 10: 48
    Thank you very much for the article, Ilya. She will have to re-read ----- many pieces on this board.
  11. Lyubopyatov
    Lyubopyatov 25 July 2016 11: 05
    Turkey as a territory is becoming a breeding ground for the growth of Kurdistan, Armenia, Syria (Hatay province), Cyprus and Greece. Steadily and irreversibly.
    1. Parsec
      Parsec 25 July 2016 11: 36
      Quote: Lyubopyatov
      Turkey as a territory is becoming a breeding ground for the growth of Kurdistan, Armenia, Syria (Hatay province), Cyprus and Greece.

      Heartburn will beat from such a diet.
  12. Yaushev Artyom
    Yaushev Artyom 25 July 2016 21: 12
    We are talking about the republics of Central Asia, Azerbaijan, as well as the territories that are part of the Russian Federation - the republics of the North Caucasus, the Volga region, some regions of southern Russia, including the Krasnodar and Stavropol Territories, Rostov Region, Astrakhan Region, and more recently, Crimea. Here, at the turn of the 1980s - 1990s. radical fundamentalist organizations sponsored by Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Turkey launched active preaching and propaganda activities. Well, Russia needs to develop educational activities both inside the country and develop cooperation with Azerbaijan
  13. Lord blacwood
    Lord blacwood 25 July 2016 22: 55
    Unfortunately for Erdogan, the project of a "new Ottoman empire" failed from the very beginning, since neither Russia nor the United States need a strong Turkey. As a result, both the USA and the Russian Federation will interfere in Turkish politics, and in the end they will destroy both Erdogan himself and his plans.
  14. Raven
    Raven 26 July 2016 06: 41
    soon the wave of the Arab spring will flow over with the bestial grin of religious extremism and Turkey will become Syria, and neither the army, nor the prosecutor’s office, nor the courts will be able to defend the country, and under the ringing fanfare, the second powerful NATO country will become harmless to us. there will be problems, but not dangerous ... we fully support Erdogan in his suicidal course! am
  15. Scorpio05
    Scorpio05 April 5 2018 20: 09
    [/ quote]] For example, political scientist and orientalist Fahreddin Abbaszoda [quote]

    Since when is this mk and renegade Abaszoda living in Yerevan on Armenian grub (or rather, a specific protein supplement laughing ) - Did you shut up with an expert and a political scientist?) PR for this hillbilly, who is quietly sitting on his Armenian knees?)