Military Review

The collapse of the eurozone in 2012. Looks like the issue has been resolved.

24
For anybody, it is not a special revelation that fact that discussions about the future within the framework of elites take place behind closed doors. At an early stage, they can be made available to the general public only if there is a severe split of the elite, although at this stage sometimes experienced analysts can say something. But then the next stage begins - when some decision is made, it must be made customary for society. Only after this stage can one begin to institutionalize it; otherwise, the effectiveness of such an action will be extremely low.

So, it is possible that today the elites of the European Union are at the transition from the first stage to the second - in terms of discussing the future fate of this education.

Note that in order to assess the situation with the prospects of the euro area and the European Union, it was not necessary to be a particularly shrewd specialist - the problems here, as they say, were visible to the naked eye. Another thing is that the range of possible solutions here is so large that it is almost impossible to evaluate the one that is implemented in practice. Again, there are quite large groups of “interested comrades” who are trying to prevent the issue from going in one direction or another. Someone, for example, wants to save the euro at any cost, someone, on the contrary, is ready to put up with the exit of individual countries from this zone, just not to maintain the standard of living of their citizens at some not too low level at their own expense. There are other options that, however, it is not necessary to list - the essence of the matter does not change.

In other words, today there is a conflict inside the elite, and the need to prepare citizens for all sorts of controversial courses of action. And in this situation, you need to very carefully monitor the various leaks of information. And they certainly happen. So the other day, in an interview with the German newspaper Bild, one of the five economic advisers to the German government, Beatrice Weder di Mauro, said unequivocally that while the collapse of the eurozone in 2012 would be a “bad option for all participants”, it cannot be completely excluded . She also warned that if the financial crisis is quickly stopped, it could lead to a recession in Germany, the economy will fall by 0,5% and trigger unemployment. Finally, she clearly stated how Germany plans to combat the lag in the PIIGS countries (Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Greece and Spain): "countries with a high level of debt should provide a long-term program to overcome the crisis."

On the question of who is to blame for the euro crisis, Weder di Mauro said that some countries had a hand in this, creating too much debt, the banking system did not stand aside either. There are great fears now that they may not pay the debts. Markets are nervous now, and politicians are doing too little. "If we manage to take a debt settlement pact and stick together to stabilize the euro, no significant losses are expected. Otherwise, the consequences and costs are incalculable," she said in an interview.

As always, it was not said to talk about exactly how the crisis can be overcome - well, it doesn't matter. The given interview is not the information itself, it is a leak, and you need to pay attention not to the main message, but to additional details. It can be more or less clearly translated as follows: we, of course, understand that it is no longer possible to save the situation, but we cannot speak of this as a fait accompli. We understand that the consequences of the crisis can be grave, and we hint at this, and then - having ears, let it be heard. And in order to make everything clearer, we are directly saying that in order for everything to be good, you need to do a thing that you definitely cannot do.

It all looks rather gloomy and cynical, but there are no options - as I said, in the outgoing year everyone already understood that the old options for life and economics do not go away, and no one has yet come up with new ones - so you have to describe everything within the old models: in our case, the collapse of the eurozone. The fact that this may not help, no one no longer considers it at all, it is already beyond the typical variants that are considered by experts and politicians.

So, it is quite simple to understand the pre-Christmas revelations of a German expert, there is no only an answer, not a question of what will actually happen in the eurozone, and in the European Union. You can, of course, throw Greece, Spain or even Italy out of the euro zone, but the question of the living standards of the population still does not solve - it will no longer be possible to build up debts, and you have not come up with another way to find means to stimulate demand. And this means that the socio-political model of the European Union, that for its current composition, that for the “truncated” one, will not work.

And why politicians, including German ones, say “A” (that there is no more money for the maintenance of the southern European countries in Berlin and Paris), they do not say “B” - that is, there is no money for the maintenance of its own citizens - It's not clear yet.

Theoretically, it can be assumed that this question simply has not yet emerged from the first stage described at the beginning of the article, that is, it is discussed in closed session. However, all sorts of information that comes from behind closed doors, both direct and indirect, suggests that the West European elites are not at all ready to change the model. So, for the time being they will simply increase the flow of information about the inevitability of the collapse of the euro area, and then the European Union, and then put all this into practice. For more complex actions they are not yet ready.
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24 comments
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  1. Vadivak
    Vadivak 3 January 2012 11: 29
    +16
    reasoning about the future within the elite

    What "elites"? Speculators, usurers, traders? Or betray politicians for the sake of momentary gain? It's time to call the "elite" by their proper names
    1. Igor Vladimirovich
      Igor Vladimirovich 3 January 2012 15: 58
      +6
      Well called them by their proper names. So what?
      The one who possesses the resources and better than his opponents manages them wins. This process is endless.
      In the case of Russia, we have the traditional problem of managerial personnel.
      There are resources, but there are no full-fledged leaders. Either honest, but not popular, then popular, but not sensible enough, etc.
    2. Nachkar237
      Nachkar237 4 January 2012 23: 39
      +1
      In my opinion, Mikhail Khazin is just a politically correct person and expresses the essence of what is happening without undue emotions and in the framework of decency.
  2. tronin.maxim
    tronin.maxim 3 January 2012 11: 35
    +12
    The collapse of the eurozone for Europe will be a serious blow, especially for those who have financial debts and suffer in the first place ordinary people and no rallies will help. Pindos is on hand, tpc say increasing the value of the dollar.
  3. SergeySK
    SergeySK 3 January 2012 11: 45
    +15
    Ha Ha Ha Molodzi loaded Greece with debts for 200 years in advance and under her ass go go they say free bread you spoil our economy. Do not forget only to send the favor. And they are poor they just didn’t do to please the older brothers. And they raised the retirement age (they don’t live) and lifted benefits and cut salaries and cut jobs and as soon as they didn’t lick their friends! BRAVO EU.
    1. ab
      ab 4 January 2012 21: 25
      +1
      In general, no one loaded Greece with debts. One must be in Greece and communicate with the Greeks in order to understand. I got the impression. Lazy people, God forbid corruption, warm places - everything is good, 50 days leave, 14 salaries a year, janitor 2000 euros, train 5000, pension taxi drivers, hairdressers and, for some reason, wind musicians - 40 years old. A third of the economy is in the shade, taxes are not paid, prof. alliances every 5min. strike. They deceived the whole of Europe, accumulated debts, and now let the Germans pay for them. My taxi driver in Athens says - Work!? we sell the sun, work not for us. Siesta, evening bar. And where are the grandmas? Industry zero.! 11mln. population 350 billion. Euro debt.
  4. Alexey Prikazchikov
    Alexey Prikazchikov 3 January 2012 13: 26
    +1
    As a person who is a fan of the Russian state, it is pleasant for me that we can thereby absorb Europe in the future, but on the other hand, we must understand that innocent people who, like us, want to live, suffer from all this. By the way, an interesting article of Hungary threatens to be expelled from the European Union ("The Wall Street Journal", USA) http://www.inosmi.ru/europe/20120103/182056397.html
    1. Helmut
      Helmut 3 January 2012 17: 50
      +5
      In war as in war. When we collapsed they did not care about us, they rejoiced and contributed. None of them voted against NATO expansion, although they promised not to accept the former Soviet republics.
      Russia certainly should contribute to the collapse of the eurozone and build the most friendly relations with Germany and support Germany. Yes, the EU pays us a lot for gas, but Germany will replace a client called the EU.
    2. ballian
      ballian 3 January 2012 19: 42
      +1
      Quote: Alexey Prikazchikov
      I, as a person rooting for the Russian state, are pleased that we can thereby absorb Europe in the future

      Nifiga yourself you waved :))))))
    3. Order
      Order 4 January 2012 11: 07
      +2
      This is a place, excuse me, are you going to swallow and how to digest it?
  5. kagorta
    kagorta 3 January 2012 13: 34
    +2
    So in Greece, first of all, they wrote off loans for pension affairs and social services. collateral, and public debt, they simply scrolled it, gave it money to close it, but it only came new debts, and the old ones paid off, but the amount of debts did not decrease, and the conditions became more stringent.
  6. dred
    dred 3 January 2012 13: 41
    +2
    The Greeks were the first to feel the collapse of the eurozone.
    1. t1
      t1 3 January 2012 19: 02
      +1
      And the rest will still be able to drink a bottle of beer, because detonation also has a finite speed.
  7. Kyrgyz
    Kyrgyz 3 January 2012 15: 41
    +6
    A split along the former borders is unlikely, the weak owed too much to the strong, and the Germans will not write off a single euro of invested money, the EU has the strength of 5 countries for the remaining chances of sovereignty, if only to become a vassal of the United States but it is not sovereignty. The pressure of Russia will increase as its economic potential rises, but the Russians will not take the weak money to the last because they understand what they have to give.
    It is the strong that will not allow the EU to disperse, because the EU is practically their colony, although with some representative functions, but the stranglehold of the crisis will finish the army of the weak and blunt their love of freedom
    1. oper66
      oper66 3 January 2012 20: 16
      +3
      All is well that the EU is crumbling, only a question from where will the Ukrainians direct their skis? Again, like in a fairy tale "-Isbushka hut, turn to the forest in front and back to me and lean ..." - that's all the joy of the Ukrainian leaders just gathered to join, but there is nothing to attack. What will the Poles and Labuses sing now? With the collapse of the EU into NATO, organizational problems will definitely arise, because. when dividing, the question arises of who owes whom and how and how to give, in kind (territories with sovereignty) or songs. But with all this, I am personally pleased with the upcoming collapse of the EU and the United States will lose a single ally
  8. Inferno
    Inferno 3 January 2012 17: 56
    +1
    Comrades from the European Union are trying to sit on two chairs - and the people are not very angry and save the economy. It won’t work out that way. Existing governments do not want to take unpopular measures (or who will re-elect them). Perhaps the truth is the EU will fall apart.
    The Greeks themselves are to blame. They don’t like to work, but they want to live no worse than the Germans = beyond their means.
  9. suharev-52
    suharev-52 3 January 2012 17: 59
    +1
    All these are the games of the international financial mafia, under their thumb; and Europe, and America, and Russia, etc. They make money in any crisis. Even on the difference and fluctuation of the dollar and the euro. And our "lawyers" cut the loot on the ruble exchange rate. Who can say why we have not yet switched to settlements for our deliveries in rubles? Because they don’t. We were a bedding in the States, and we remain with it. And LADIES and VVP only puff out their cheeks from the importance in the TV box and know how.
    1. 4 January 2012 16: 15
      0
      Quote: suharev - 52
      Who will say why we still have not switched to settlements for our deliveries in rubles. Yes, because they don’t. We were the litter of the States, and we remain. And DAM and GDP are only able to puff out their cheeks from the importance in the television box and know how.

      1) We need dollars to print rubles
      2) 60% of transactions in the world in dollars. In order for us to participate in world trade (to import, for example), we need dollars, because few people need our ruble.
      3) Medvedev, at one time, already spoke about the need to create a resource market in which we would sell raw materials for the national currency. There is a very strong lobby of extractive companies in the Duma that simply will not pass such a law. One of the schemes to divert profits from taxes: a production company sells part of the oil in Russia under the guise of a well fluid to some offshore company. And this offshore company sells this "well fluid" to the world market as normal oil. The creation of a raw materials market in Russia will make such schemes impossible, therefore the “raw materials” lobby will not allow the passage of this law.
      Another way is the fight against offshores, which, it seems, begins Putin.

      And Putin is not the king who can issue a decree and everyone immediately began to execute it. In our conditions, the Duma and the Federation Council should ratify the bill.
  10. Victor
    Victor 3 January 2012 18: 11
    +4
    It is likely that if the EU begins to crumble, and some Euro-leader countries want to save the euro, these countries will have to collapse NATO, too. at the moment, it was the states that provoked the financial crisis of Europe through their rating agencies. The United States does not need a strong Euro now, it cannot stabilize its own economy and the banking system. A number of countries, including Russia, have begun withdrawing their capital from US government bonds. Only the collapse of Europe and the killing of the Euro will help the states. There is a nascent conflict of interest. In Russia, a huge amount of foreign exchange reserve is concentrated in the Euro. This means that the Russian Federation will, whenever possible, help the main economies of Europe save the Euro, and those will willy-nilly fall into the orbit of Russia's interests with its new structure, the Euroses, where there is a huge sales and investment market. The rest will go like clockwork. Contradictions begin to emerge within the Eurozone and NATO. Ultimately, there is a very high probability of the collapse of NATO and the Eurozone due to economic and financial interests. Go Russia!
  11. wolverine7778
    wolverine7778 3 January 2012 19: 15
    0
    Judging by the pessimistic assessment of situations in the world, the Euro will unfortunately cease to exist until the end of 2012
  12. 755962
    755962 3 January 2012 19: 35
    0
    the dollar is a green piece of paper, the euro will collapse. What will happen? The country is increasing the gold reserve. Probably gold coins will be minted
  13. Bob
    Bob 3 January 2012 19: 46
    +1
    Why German politicians saying “A” (that there is no more money to support the southern European countries in Berlin and Paris) do not say “B” - that is, that there is no money to support their own citizens - it is not clear yet.
    It is very clear - 2012 is an elective or pre-election year for these elites, and they really do not want to make political hara-kiri, hold on to their chairs until the last, summits are held, in general, everywhere, and they have an imitation of violent activity. And in parallel there is a stuffing of information about the impending collapse of the euro in order to prepare the people for the trials.
    It is correctly said that the current elites are a handful of money-lenders, bankers, and any service personnel (underlying). The elite of states was destroyed and the states are driven by completely different ideals - profit and profit. This is definitely the path to the abyss. And they (the elites) understand this, and therefore try to push this end as far as possible, but they cannot prevent it in the existing structure and power system.
    Only for us, this (the European crisis) does not bring anything good, either in the short or medium term. And we may not live to see the long-term. This grateful business is forecasts. The facts speak for themselves - the consequences of the global crisis of 2008 for the Russian Federation amounted to 1,5 trillion. dollars. that is several times more painful than other states - the USA, the EU.
  14. SAMEDOV SULEYMAN
    SAMEDOV SULEYMAN 3 January 2012 20: 45
    +6
    All that has happened recently in Europe is a well-planned operation to undermine the economies of many countries in the eurozone. Really no one foresaw the state of Greece, Portugal, Spain and so on, knowing the economies of these countries, they were given as much money as their National budget didn’t have in the best years, why, and then they need to divide the countries into castes, the country's highest caste who will make decisions, the lower caste that will execute even against their will, there will be ecologically clean countries, and there will be waste collection countries, there will be countries with a moral appearance and there will be countries of a prostitute both literally and figuratively. Here it is!
    1. Kyrgyz
      Kyrgyz 3 January 2012 21: 18
      0
      absolutely true, there is no collapse of the EU, there is a moment of truth, official recognition of the exceptional position of the EU’s strong countries, it’s not entirely clear that they will give to London, they may have thrown nothing more often, but the fate of the weak to go in the lead of the leading countries in silence is stupidly an empire
      Ukraine seems to be moving by inertia captive of the illusions and interests of a narrow circle of people
      the dollar and the euro were and are the main world currencies, I don’t laugh at them like an ant until Mars with cap-and-slogan slogans - they have come up with the entire economy today and continue to write the rules there
  15. Charon
    Charon 3 January 2012 21: 45
    +1
    I do not care.
    My wife is spending the last eureka now. If anyone loses on this, then not me.
    But the sprats, where she dumps these eureka, will soon be smoked on them.
    But I will not buy this good. And I do not advise you, friends.
  16. Ascetic
    Ascetic 3 January 2012 23: 45
    +2
    Not surprising. From the word EBR (oh; her; repair; luxury; opa; standard, etc.) you always need to wait for a dirty trick especially to Russian citizens
  17. Denis
    Denis 4 January 2012 00: 40
    -1
    the road is there for them, the benefit themselves, despite all the attempts of compIdors, they didn’t get involved there, even though they wanted to
    otherwise Greece-2 would have happened or something more abrupt