Military Review

City of London begins its drift from the British Isles

21
Immediately after the announcement of the results of Brexit that are disappointing for Europe, leading European politicians hurried the British to begin the process of leaving the United Kingdom from the European Union. In this field, almost all the leaders of the main structures of the European Union were noted. There are several reasons for that, but the main one is to quickly determine the new financial center in the EU. Finances, as you know, love certainty and do not tolerate long pauses.


City of London begins its drift from the British Isles


English Thames to German Mine?

London is still considered the informal financial capital of the EU. And let the main regulator of the European Union - the European Central Bank (ECB) - is located today in the German Frankfurt am Main, the main banking, investment and insurance companies are located in the British capital. From here, the European Office of Banking Supervision (EBA) oversees the continent. Now for this wealth turned serious struggle.

It all started with the stock sites. Back in February, the two largest European exchanges (Frankfurt and London) decided to unite. Stockbrokers didn’t hold in their thoughts that some Brexit would happen. They planned on the basis of the Deutsche Börse Group and the London Stock Exchange to create a powerful holding, register it under British law with a legal address in London.

The decision of the shareholders of the new holding was based on the fact that in the practice of their relations, transnational structures traditionally adhere to British case law, and the London platform will be very comfortable for them. Now the situation has changed dramatically. Brexit stands in the way of the euro.

In this regard, the German Federal Department for the Supervision of the Financial Sector and the leading German politicians categorically object to the headquarters of the holding being formed to be outside the European Union. In early July, the deal to unite the stock exchanges received the consent of the shareholders, but everything goes to the fact that the main center of the future holding company will be settled in Frankfurt.

The Germans and those of the European leaders who are in favor of strengthening the prestige of Germany in the European Union want to strengthen the position of Frankfurt not only at the expense of the stock market. The city on the banks of the Main in the informal table of ranks is only 14-th line in the ranking of global financial centers. Now, many see it as the new financial capital of Europe.

Many, but not all. Paris, Luxembourg, Amsterdam and Dublin have already presented their financial ambitions. For Dublin - the ability of companies to work in the field of British law convenient for them, the usual Anglo-Saxon culture and the numerous European headquarters of high-tech American companies located in the Irish capital.

Paris has no weaker arguments. In the French capital, in addition to the offices of the largest banks in the country, the European Securities Market Authority (ESMA) is located. If the officials from Brussels also transfer the European Banking Supervision Authority to Paris, this financial center, at a minimum, will not yield to the Frankfurt one.

There are advantages to Amsterdam and Luxembourg. In addition to low taxes and existing close ties with the current London City, here they count on the mood of European officials. Brussels opposes the concentration of European financial institutions in individual centers, as this can lead to increased influence in the EU of individual states and reduce the role of Brussels itself.

The first signals of this have already appeared. Even on the eve of the NATO summit in Warsaw, Lithuanian President Dalia Grybauskaite called on Germany to take a leading role in Europe. In an interview with DPA, Grybauskaite spoke primarily about protection from the Russian "military threat" and, in a sense, even provoked Berlin. She told DRA: “I think the time has come for Germany to believe in itself more, not to look back and not to seek historical sentiment. "

European politicians paid more attention not to this passage of the interview, but to the call for Germany to become the military and political leader of Europe. They have their own view on the possible Germanic unipolarity of the continent after Brexit. Therefore, the approach of Brussels officials in the distribution of financial flows in Europe will most likely prevail. Companies migrating from London will find a place in the capitals of different countries, and the matter is unlikely to end with the stated five.

American party in the European Brexit

Meanwhile, Washington does not sleep. Of course, he will not take control of the movement of the European currency, but he has already called his native dollar home. According to London's The Financial Times, over the past week, American funds investing in Europe have returned over the ocean about 13 billions of dollars. Now these funds have replenished the stock market of the United States.

Meanwhile, this is by no means a one-time action, but a fully formed trend. According to experts, the withdrawal of American money from European assets is already 23 th week. The dollar has recently strengthened, gold prices have grown, and the situation in European banking is only getting worse. Thus, the amount of overdue debts of Italian banks has already exceeded 400 billion dollars. German Deutsche Bank generally predict the sad fate of the American Lehman Brothers, failed in 2008 year.

As we remember, the global financial crisis began with this bankruptcy. The same difficult situation today at Deutsche Bank. His excessive investments in derivatives, which even the bank employees themselves could not really understand now, brought a loss close to seven billion euros last year. The “bad debts” account of Deutsche Bank has long been running in trillions of euros.

Add to this the negative rates on deposits in major European banks, it becomes clear why Americans today repatriate their capital from Europe, where the stock market lost 3 trillion dollars only in the first days after the British referendum.

It may seem that the United States, after the decision on Brexit, is fenced off from Europe. Not at all. Americans here quickly found their interest. On Monday in Brussels at a meeting with foreign ministers of EU countries, US Secretary of State John Kerry offered his recipe for overcoming the negative economic consequences of leaving Britain from the EU. Kerry announced the increased importance of the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership Agreement in the new conditions.

This partnership has been criticized by many European politicians. The French refused to sign the upcoming agreement. Under partnership in Europe, Americans saw an attempt to put the European Union’s economy under their control, to introduce their consumer standards and environmental standards on the continent.

Now, John Kerry is convincing European colleagues that an agreement on trade and investment partnership will cause strong economic growth on both sides of the Atlantic Ocean, will lead to the creation of new jobs, to a qualitatively new labor opportunity for EU citizens. In fact, the United States is only showing interest in the fact that the financial and economic centers of Europe formed after Brexit include American, with its strong roots on Wall Street in New York.

When not happy with the forecasts ...


Emboldened by the President of Lithuania, the Germans also do not sit with folded arms. On the second day after the announcement of the results of the British referendum, the lobbyist group Frankfurt Main Finance opened a hotline for bankers and financiers who want to leave London in connection with Brexit. This gave the result. According to estimates by The Financial Times, referring to an informed source, "from half a dozen" banks from the United States and Switzerland are already planning to transfer their staff from London to Frankfurt am Main. Numerous contacts of the heads of foreign banks with the government of the federal state of Hessen, to which Frankfurt belongs, were confirmed to the newspaper and by the land minister of the economy, Tarek al-Wazir. So the City of London is already in motion.

Britain does not bode well. During the week, the International Monetary Fund gave a pessimistic forecast for the UK economy. Its growth next year will slow to 1,3% of GDP against previous expectations of growth in 2,2%. Significant change. For London, it is all the more painful that in order to save it among the largest economies here, in the year 2014, they began to manipulate GDP figures.

At the initiative of the then British Prime Minister David Cameron in London, even income from prostitution and drug trafficking was taken into account. For the year, they counted as much as £ 12 billion. Accounting criminal business then allowed the UK to surpass France's GDP and become the fifth economy in the world.

What tricks will have to go to the new British cabinet to convince the world and the citizens of the United Kingdom that the country's economy is developing successfully, we can only guess. This will be all the more difficult to do because the IMF has lowered its forecast for GDP growth rates for the leading countries of Europe - Germany, France, Italy, Spain and the Eurozone as a whole.

This is the first price of a “European divorce”. No one is trying to predict all of its negative consequences for the economy of Europe and the world. Obviously, Brexit led the financial centers in a tectonic movement. The City of London was the first to be concerned about its future, but its drift towards the continent is just beginning ...
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  1. Dam
    Dam 21 July 2016 06: 11
    +3
    Amid the instability of Europe, the pound will remain hard currency, plus London will be the closest offshore for European capital. So that there are pros and cons that will win, see
    1. The comment was deleted.
    2. siberalt
      siberalt 21 July 2016 06: 45
      +4
      The most profitable usurious capital. You do not produce anything - you lose nothing but bubbles. But he is also the most sensitive. This is the same as judging the migration of Jews from where something is brewing.
  2. Mavrikiy
    Mavrikiy 21 July 2016 06: 13
    +3
    "The stockists did not even think that some kind of Brexit would happen." And rightly so, where the thoughts come from, there is $.
    drop in GDP for everyone in Europe? Somewhere it means (+), but overseas!
  3. Disant
    Disant 21 July 2016 06: 17
    +1
    Everything is very clear: now someone will warm the hands.
    1. 34 region
      34 region 21 July 2016 07: 21
      +2
      Disant! 06.17. What is warmed is understandable. Although the phrase: According to forecasts ...! Are they there on coffee grounds or on maps guessing? It seems like there is no plan. But! In France, the attacks. German and Italian bank bankrupt. The EU is full of refugees and restless. Russia threatens Europe. An Asia-Pacific Partnership is being created. And the question is. Why is England in the EU? Money loves silence. But in Europe, the noise begins. Maybe Europe. Prepare to drain? Why does a dead man need finance? Will the US help Europe? Why is the dollar a competitor to the euro?
      1. Lyubopyatov
        Lyubopyatov 22 July 2016 00: 16
        0
        "Russia threatens Europe" - why do you have no quotation marks?
    2. PKK
      PKK 21 July 2016 20: 26
      0
      And what Britain was thinking about when it decided to get out of the future caliphate, it’s necessary to pay for everything, and no one will bring it. Now the decline in capitalization, the discontent of the people will grow. Everything has just begun. It’s as if the Hindus will take the diamond from the Queen’s Crown.
  4. demiurg
    demiurg 21 July 2016 06: 19
    +7
    Accounting for crime GDP is strong. 6 technological structure however. Factories-machine tools-energy-chemistry is all the last century. Advanced countries live off prostitution.
  5. parusnik
    parusnik 21 July 2016 06: 24
    +5
    The British are not in vain coming out of the EU .. apparently everything was well calculated ...
    1. Amurets
      Amurets 21 July 2016 06: 47
      +2
      Quote: parusnik
      The British are not in vain coming out of the EU .. apparently everything was well calculated ...

      The British traditionally have strong banking positions in Southeast Asia. These are the exchanges of Singapore, Hong Kong, and Shanghai.
    2. Ivan Slavyanin
      Ivan Slavyanin 21 July 2016 07: 16
      +3
      Before, the British were well-counted in Switzerland and untied their currency from the euro, losing about 500 million euros.
  6. strelets
    strelets 21 July 2016 06: 27
    +5
    The British did not even disdain the proceeds of prostitution and drug trafficking in order to add on their GDP. Forgotten the slave trade and the trade in human organs. You look, they can hold fifth place.
  7. Arkan
    Arkan 21 July 2016 06: 33
    +2
    In the light of Brexit, the soap bubble of the European, and indeed the entire Western, economy was more clearly manifested.
  8. VSZMK
    VSZMK 21 July 2016 07: 11
    +4
    Lithuanian President Dalia Grybauskaite called on Germany to take a leading role in Europe.
    It remains to wait for what the Poles say.
  9. grandfather Mih
    grandfather Mih 21 July 2016 07: 25
    0
    Quote: VSZMK
    It remains to wait for what the Poles say.
    Did you also pay attention to: "The Germans, encouraged by the President of Lithuania, also do not sit idly by"?
  10. Nicola Bari
    Nicola Bari 21 July 2016 08: 01
    +1
    Financial centers, it seems to me, will leave Europe altogether - money loves peace and quiet, guaranteed by force. Perhaps that is why the EU is weakening - Nothing personal - it's just business.
  11. fa2998
    fa2998 21 July 2016 09: 27
    +1
    Quote: Disant
    Everything is very clear: now someone will warm the hands.

    And someone will lose! If business and money will flow out of London, it will cease to be the "financial capital of Europe", it will sharply collapse the real estate market. And our rich people who have invested millions of pounds in English apartments and castles will lose a lot. Well, I think they will find compensation, they own a country in 1/7 of the world. And we will pay! recourse RS.Only left is a political refuge for all creatures. hi
    1. Altona
      Altona 21 July 2016 10: 12
      +2
      Quote: fa2998
      And our rich have invested millions of pounds in British apartments and castles will lose a lot.

      ---------------
      Our rich will lose them anyway. The British do not disdain confiscatory and discriminatory measures, and in relation to the Russians, as they say, and cards in hand. They were not accepted into the "world elite"; they ate little matzo.
  12. Senior manager
    Senior manager 21 July 2016 09: 35
    +2
    I see the financial multi-way drain of the FSA and the strengthening of the Southeast Asian financial center. The squabble between the shadow rulers. An attempt, perhaps, to get away from the third world war, because nobody needs a clay ball.
  13. Altona
    Altona 21 July 2016 10: 09
    +1
    The United States and the United Kingdom are generally strong offshore, offshore jurisdictions. If they include this money in their GDP, they will probably be the first and unattainable. Of course, it's unpleasant that the operations center goes to Frankfurt and to the Germans in general, but "we'll survive this trouble." Apparently that's how they talk on the islands. They'll come up with something.
  14. Avril69Lavigne
    Avril69Lavigne 21 July 2016 14: 30
    +1
    Judging by the NSA intercepted and stolen by Cyberberkut already from the NSA itself, the correspondence through the messengers of Google cones - after the threats, Google did a huge fine to what it could be expected from it. As before, both AOL and Microsoft, Yahoo, and the severely quoted Norwegian Opera treated the confidentiality of data of Russian-speaking users, and Google, only this one acted even more hypocritically, did not transfer or ban all users for the Cyrillic alphabet to the secret services, but simply handed over to Anonymous the hackers working for the CIA passwords and logins, so that they use Russian-speaking Google users as bots in their primitive DDOS attacks on Russians, who hate Washington resources, publicly stating that they were simply stolen from him by Russian Kremlin hackers. It is very instructive, such as Sergey Brin (a big fan of talking nasty things about Russia, from which he was taken away very early and which he does not know and does not want to know) in Siberia, they sat in the USSR, without any mammoths and romantically-minded adventure women with quests, but with very Gothic pick for permafrost - and their children received at school a humiliating son / daughter status of an enemy of the people, washed toilets, even teachers ...