Military Review

All inclusive, even coup

The fact that actually happened in Turkey with 15 on July 16, will argue for a long time. And these disputes began even before the events there ended (at least their active phase). Taking into account the fact that this is an attempt of a coup d’état, or a dangerous one, on the verge of a foul, but a successful provocation designed to finish off the opposition to Erdogan took place in Turkey, it is important for Russia to understand what happened there.

Fortunately, the immediate consequences will be the transformation of this NATO member country into a de facto Islamic republic, the establishment of a personal dictatorship regime for its unpredictable and ambitious president, the subordination of all branches of power to it and its receipt of all the neo-Ottoman revanchist plans that it still then prevented the implementation of the front of the army, judiciary and parliament, including in Syria, Iraq and the post-Soviet space.

In modern Russia, there are enough lobbying interests of Turkey, Erdogan or his Justice and Development Party. Just like the Islamists from the vast family of the Muslim Brotherhood, which in addition to the Turkish AKP includes the Palestinian Hamas, the Syrian "Brothers" opposing Bashar Assad, and the Egyptian "Brothers" leading the war against General Al-Sisi’s regime.

It is not by chance that the voluntary (or paid) lawyers of Turkey and Erdogan immediately after the reports about the “putsch of the military” began a campaign in the domestic media that the Russian plane, the destruction of which caused an acute crisis in relations between Moscow and Ankara, was not shot down by direct order of the President (which was the only one in Turkey that could decide on this), but as a result of the unauthorized actions of the military.

Understanding exactly what internal political processes are currently underway in Turkey, including based on eyewitness accounts. Tens of thousands of Russian citizens in this country live on a permanent basis. Millions visited her annually before the rupture of relations in the tourism sector due to the aircraft crisis. No matter how Turkey changes, its relations with Russia in the economy are significant enough for both countries to come to naught. Although in today's conditions, megaprojects like the Turkish Stream or Akkuyu nuclear power plants would be extremely risky and hardly justified from the point of view of the prospects for which they were designed. Fortunately, current events give every reason to abandon them, referring to the circumstances of force majeure (another question is whether domestic departments will be ready to abandon the planned multi-billion investments from the state budget of the Russian Federation).

The flow of information from Turkey fills the information space. At the same time, it is almost impossible to extract information from it about the real processes taking place in the military and political elite of this country. Meanwhile, much of what is happening there determines not only Turkey’s present and future, but also its relations with its neighbors, including Russia. It is on these processes that the continuation of Ankara’s course towards European integration or its termination, the level of support for political Islamism in the international arena and, ultimately, relations with the countries of the Islamic world, the European Union and the United States depend. The materials prepared for the Institute of the Middle East by its experts Yu. B. Shcheglovin and I. I. Starodubtsev allow to fill in some of the most significant gaps mentioned above.

Few people outside of Turkey (and a little more in this country itself) know that there is a purge of the ranks of the main secret service of MIT. Meanwhile, the plans of the Turkish president are a radical change in the leadership of this service. Her perennial leader Hakan Fidan, one of the people closest to Erdogan and the executor of his most delicate tasks, is tipped as Ambassador to Japan. So far this appointment has been delayed both due to the internal political situation and because he wants to leave as ambassador to the United States. His deputy, Ismail Hakki Moussa, who, in the period of Fidan’s desire to resign and build his own political career on the eve of parliamentary elections in 2015, was acting head of the MIT, has already been appointed ambassador to Paris.

Substitutions in the Kurdish field

Despite the fact that France is a landmark country for Turkey, by bureaucratic measures such a move means a drop in the career ladder, more precisely, an honorary exile before retirement. At the same time, Musa came to the post of deputy Fidan after he worked as the Turkish ambassador in Brussels from 2011 to 2012 a year. In this position, he oversaw the MIT operations to eliminate emissaries and cell management of the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) in Western European countries. Having succeeded in this field, he was transferred to the center. As Deputy Fidan, he first helped him establish a truce with the PKK, and after his breakdown he oversaw the physical neutralization of the PKK leaders in Turkey. There is every reason to believe that it was he who was the organizer of the resonant terrorist attack in Suruç when the pro-Kurdish rally was blown up.

All inclusive, even coup

Musa was recruiting jihadi agents, then sending them to Syria and using provocative resonant terrorist acts in Turkey to organize them. In addition, Ismail Hakki Musa oversaw an attempt to create an analogue of the Kurdish Taliban in northern Syria about two years ago, the backbone of which was the former PKK fighters who had embarked on the path of jihad. This attempt was suppressed by supporters of the Syrian Kurdish Party of the Democratic Union (PDS). Thus, it is clear that Erdogan completely gets rid of the leadership of MIT, which was previously actively involved in solving the Kurdish problem and maintaining contacts with jihadist groups in Syria.

Note that the former Prime Minister A. Davotoglu and the same Fidan at one time appealed to the Turkish President with a demand to change the policy regarding the Kurds and to reach a truce with them. It cost Davotoglu post. The resignation is very likely to overtake Fidana. Does this mean, as well as the disgrace of Musa, that Ankara will begin to transform the policy regarding the Kurdish problem? Probably. But only after the referendum on amending the constitution. Otherwise, there is a high probability that the nationalists will refuse to support President Erdogan. Any flirting with the Kurds means discontent of this part of the population, which now provides its electoral base. The immediate conclusion of peace with the Kurds, which was proposed by Davotoglu and Fidan, was rejected by Erdogan not because of the inferiority of the idea itself, but solely because of its untimelyness for him personally.

What the Turkish president is doing to improve relations with Israel and Russia is nothing but preparing the ground for a fateful referendum and turning Turkey from a parliamentary republic into a presidential one. For this transformation of his views, Moscow can thank the European Union, which also through voting in the Bundestag on the issue of Germany’s recognition of the Armenian Genocide articulated a refusal to provide Ankara with a visa-free regime, and especially from Turkey’s early accession to the EU. This was Erdogan's main trump card in the processing of his electorate on the eve of the referendum. In the case of obtaining a visa-free regime, the Turks would have voted en masse for the proposed changes to the constitution. This did not happen, and the UK referendum on leaving the EU reinforced the feeling of the failure of Turkish policy in the European direction. Erdogan had to look for new trumps. They were the restoration of relations with Russia and Israel. In each case, its own, but purely economic reasons.

The Kurdish issue, or rather, the easing or complete cessation of the Kurdish terror, which has become increasingly reminiscent of the classical guerrilla war, is another backup trump card for the Turkish president to ease domestic tension in the country and reduce investment risks. However, the Kurds no longer trust either Fidana or Musa, whom they accuse of killing their functionaries in Europe and Turkey. New faces are needed who can start negotiations from scratch and will not annoy the other side. And in order for them to appear and receive the appropriate powers, the old team responsible for the Kurdish direction must be removed from the field.

Fidan’s plan “where the whip, where the carrot” is to pacify the Kurds did not work. And it will not work due to the fact that Turkish Kurds received, in addition to Iraqi Kurdistan, a rear base in the north of Syria. This made the guerrilla war in the conditions of continuing the logistical support of the PKK cells in Turkey eternal. Ankara is not in a position to eliminate the rear base in Syria for many reasons, one of which is the open support of the PDS from the United States. Washington believes the Kurds are the main pillar in Syria "on the ground" in opposition to the IG banned in Russia. This is evidenced by the direction to the north-east of Syria at the location of the Kurdish detachments of American troops to carry out the operation to seize Raqqa.

You can stop this process or at least influence it only politically, which forces Erdogan to alter his position. It is painful for him, but even more destructive for him is the loss of personal power and the withdrawal into political non-existence. Perhaps this is the leitmotif of all his maneuvers both within Turkey and abroad. And this can explain all the oddities of the failed military coup, provided that we consider it from the point of view of the achievement by the President of Turkey with his help of personal goals of basic importance to him. It should not be forgotten that his career took place as a politician representing Islamist Turkey. The Turkish army throughout the newest stories This country was the main and consistent enemy of the Islamists.

The generals just shocked

At the time of writing this article, the centers of confrontation between loyalists and supporters of regime change in Turkey remained, but it was clear that a military coup did not take place. Despite the abundance of information thrown out in the media, and mass arrests, neither the number nor the composition of the leaders and the goals of the failed coup is unknown. According to some reports, this is a military prosecutor and a group of senior officers of the 1 th field army in Istanbul and the 4 th army corps in Ankara.

The degree of participation in the events of the Chief of the General Staff of the armed forces, H. Akar, is unclear. He was then taken hostage, then released and took up his duties. Then it was reported that U. Dundar became the acting chief of the General Staff. This indicated that Acar was either injured or himself participated in the attempted putsch. And in this connection, the secret journey of two emissaries of Akar to Damascus at the end of May appears in a different light. On behalf of Assad, the former head of military intelligence I. Peking and the nationalist D. Perenchek met as suspects in the Ergenekon coup d'état case. Experts talked about Erdogan’s attempt to establish a dialogue with Damascus, but now there are doubts that he knew about this visit.

However, this particular. Essentially another. When in recent months domestic political analysts had the theme of a military coup in Turkey, almost everyone agreed that this was unlikely: the army was weakened by serious purges (it was cleaned with equal zeal from both supporters of Ataturk’s line and those of like-minded F. Gulen) demoralized and forever lost ambition to return to the role of the main guarantor of the constitution, as in the good old days.

At the same time, the variant of the attempted coup was quite probable on the part of both Gulen, whose number of followers in state and law enforcement agencies is enough to do this, as well as representatives of the old school military who did not accept Erdogan’s attempts to minimize the role of the army, monopolize power in his hands and secure it by changing the constitution.

These conclusions were pushed by Erdogan’s cautious steps on the question of organizing an intervention in Syria to take control of the “Kurdish buffer” in the north of this country. He was several times close to the realization of such a scenario, but he was stopped by the fronde of the army command on this issue. The Turkish President was clearly not sure about the position of the military, who clearly gave signals that they would not fight in Syria. When the army gives such signals, it is clear that not everything is calm in the country. As far as only the future will tell, it is possible - the nearest. Since Erdogan’s victory may well turn out to be Pyrrhic, it is precisely because he is clearly set on ruthless reprisals against the opposition, true or imaginary, and requires blood. More precisely, the introduction of the death penalty. Which, if he receives the consent of the parliament, will more than likely be applied to the opponents of the Turkish president, regardless of the degree of their real guilt.

Judging by what was and is observed in Turkey, it is obvious that at the first stage almost all of the military command of this country supported the opposition against the president in one way or another. Who is the action. Who is silent. It was important for everyone to know exactly the most important and fundamental thing: whether Erdogan was killed or not. It was only after it became clear that he was alive that military leaders of the highest ranks began to distance themselves from the rebels. And this indicates that the policy of Erdogan and his attempts to transform the constitution have a serious opposition among the Turkish military, and if taken broader - among the old elite of the country. This fronde has strong roots, and in this case we would not dare to assert that the purges of the army after the incident would radically change this situation.

The power swayed, the sultan resisted

The attempt of the coup right now is not connected with the time of Erdogan’s rest at sea. It cannot be ruled out that something else has pushed the rebels to speak. The impetus for the coup attempt was a drastic change in the country's foreign policy course undertaken by Erdogan last month. And not because the military (and the representatives of the old elite behind them) oppose the normalization of Turkey’s bilateral relations with Russia and Israel. This transformation of the foreign policy course revealed the prospects for improving the Turkish economy and its exit from the stage of permanent quarrel with all of its geographical neighbors.

Opponents of Erdogan inside the country relied on his further political isolation, economic stagnation of Turkey, a long and hopeless war with the Kurds, failure of promises to liberalize the visa regime with the EU and other events from the category “the worse the better.” All of this was to ensure the failure of the idea of ​​transforming the constitution in a referendum, and then the defeat in the parliamentary elections of the ruling party and, as a result, Erdogan’s resignation. The gap with Russia, in addition to other failures in the foreign and domestic policy of the Turkish president, gave impetus to the growth of a critical mass of the discontented. Against the background of Turkey’s complex relations with Iran, Egypt and Israel, not to mention the country's participation in the Syrian civil war, this could have become a straw breaking the camel’s back.

If one adheres to the version that the coup attempt was not the result of the work of the special services in the opposition environment, the conclusion is: when it became clear that Erdogan could step on the throat of his own song for the sake of personal power, it became obvious to the organizers of the conspiracy: to stop the Turkish president’s winning move on the economic recovery in the framework of the normalization of relations with Russia and Israel after the failure of his flirting with the EU, can only rebellion. They tried to implement it within their professionalism.

Does this mean that we are witnessing the end of the era of power ambitions of the Turkish military? Hardly. Remains on the agenda (repressions only reinforce it) their discontent. There is a desire to prevent Erdogan from becoming a usurper. Together with the situation in Syria, the serious differences in the leadership of the Justice and Development Party, the Kurdish issue, this means an institutional crisis of the architecture of power in Turkey, which is far from being overcome. In this case, the coup, of course, will play into Erdogan’s hand in an attempt to get electoral support and hold a referendum on constitutional change as soon as possible.

The fruits of a victorious disaster

What trends can be assumed for the near future in Russian-Turkish relations? On the one hand, the repressions in the army will weaken it and undermine the loyalty of the elite to Erdogan. With a negative impact on Turkish influence in Syria, it will weaken support for Aleppo and the Azaz-Jarablus border corridor, which the Islamists had until recently, and simplify the tasks of the Syrian army and Kurdish militias to take these areas under control. Cooling Ankara’s relations with Washington, accused by Erdogan (rightly or not, not so important) in supporting the coup attempt, which requires the United States to extradite his former ally, who has lived there for one and a half decades, and now one of his main critics, Gulen, will contribute to this.

The prospects for issuing a well-known Muslim spiritual authority, who once sharply condemned the 9 / 11 act of terrorism, are unrealistic for the authoritarian leader of Turkey. However, this demand itself significantly weakens the position of the Turkish president in the American elite. Indicative in this regard is the demarche with regard to the Incirlik base of the Turkish leadership and the ban on the US Air Force to use it to attack IG. This clarifies a lot about how NATO works and how much America can rely on Turkey as its regional ally. However, for the VKS of the Russian Federation in Syria, this is no problem at all ...

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    INVESTOR 20 July 2016 21: 39
    This is the Turkish gambit. Russia warned Erdogan about the coup shortly before it began
    1. Khariton
      Khariton 20 July 2016 21: 48
      Our Erdogashka must be ... We grazed him for a long time! US provocation, failed before the election, also in Syria and Ukraine, etc .... heh heh!
      Russia has survived and still will! And we will wet the Ottomans, very subtly and consistently .. They owe us a lot!
      1. Major Yurik
        Major Yurik 20 July 2016 23: 25
        I scratch the question if our people find out, but our people find out that they will overthrow the pig, will they warn or not? Here is the question for filling! what
        1. Temples
          Temples 20 July 2016 23: 32
          the answer to your question is clear as God's day - NO.
          Not any backfill.

          Do you remember the egg?
          No, and they hardly remember him.
          Only when there is nothing to write about to the media, or do they remember him from a hangover.
          That egg, that parashenko - the body.
          Limpless carcasses.

          Who needs them? why the hell to warn them?
        2. Ami du peuple
          Ami du peuple 20 July 2016 23: 38
          Quote: Major Yurik
          ..if our people know, but ours know that they will overthrow the pig, they will warn or not? Here is the question for filling!
          So Putin has already answered your question.Here Erdogan wanted to accept "a helping hand, a hand of friendship." And Don Pedro Waltzman, apparently, firmly "decided to drown and it is already impossible to save him" bully
        3. hirurg
          hirurg 21 July 2016 00: 04
          Poroshenko - just without warning.
          It so came to power.
          1. hirurg
            hirurg 21 July 2016 00: 26
            I scratch the question if our people find out, but our people find out that they will overthrow the pig, will they warn or not? Here is the question for filling!
            Something is all in the heap Poroshenko, Erdogan.
            Poroshenko is in the sink.
            We need to work with Erdogan.
            Another country of chaos is not necessary!
        4. Mavrikiy
          Mavrikiy 21 July 2016 05: 35
          Quote: Major Yurik
          I scratch the question if our people find out, but our people find out that they will overthrow the pig, will they warn or not? Here is the question for filling! what

          Most likely they will warn. We need a stable Turkey, well, at least some. The overthrow can go into the war of all against all with nuclear weapons at the air base. So it seems to me we will put up. By the way, there is an option. If we learn from our sources, then we will admit, if from world masters, then how the task will be set. (listen to the last issue of V. Pyakin. Convincing and reasoned)
        5. Berber
          Berber 21 July 2016 08: 55
          Poroshenko has long been a corpse, or rather a consumable. For example, Saakashvili is more charismatic, but his fate is a foregone conclusion. All of them are essentially "corpses", only they themselves do not know about it. And if we draw an analogy with Berezovsky, then before that they will also squeeze money out.
        6. chikenous59
          chikenous59 21 July 2016 09: 05
          Quote: Major Yurik
          I scratch the question if our people find out, but our people find out that they will overthrow the pig, will they warn or not? Here is the question for filling!

          If there is information that some schizophrenic Parubiy or Lyashko is preparing a coup, for example, Poroshenko will be warned, since at least some negotiations can be conducted with him.
          The rest are specific inadequate.
      2. hirurg
        hirurg 20 July 2016 23: 41
        Yes, wait for the water. We will wet, who will pay debts?
        That's how it turns out!
        Even with Erdoогan’s loyal attitude towards the United States, Turkey itself is in NATO. A bomb was already planted under Erdogan, just in case.
        Who will guarantee that not every EU country has something like that?
      3. stas
        stas 20 July 2016 23: 58
        The Turks read the horror stories of Khariton and surrender everything to prisoners, scary already horror.
        It seems to be an adult man, and such heresy is said by preschool children playing in the sandbox.

        Shredded sofa army.
    2. ,
      , 20 July 2016 22: 16
      Well, the fact that he is not smart is understandable. I really really would like about another Xe1a do we need that Olympics in Rio? Let all these corrupt prostitutes play in Angry Perds there. Let us imagine the games of goodwill, Vladimir Vladimirovich, well?
      1. Tusv
        Tusv 20 July 2016 22: 37
        Quote: andre
        do we need that olympiad in rio?

        I visited a month at the Olympic base of the Soviet Union in Gumista, when ours did not go to Los Angeles. No need to repeat this. Soak them with suits so that their budget burst nafig, but go
    3. SSR
      SSR 20 July 2016 22: 18
      Quote: INVESTOR
      This is the Turkish gambit. Russia warned Erdogan about the coup shortly before it began


      This is fully consistent with Kremlin policy. The Kremlin against bloody coups and outside interference, the Kremlin only welcomes dialogue. Not a drop of hypocrisy, this is the official policy of the Kremlin.
      By the way, this is the core for all ... Regimes and "lords" such as Karimov and Berdi-Mukhammedov, Lukashenkikh.
    4. Dart2027
      Dart2027 20 July 2016 22: 34
      It may be true. Let's see what they say next.
    5. g1v2
      g1v2 20 July 2016 22: 36
      The army - the basis of the southern flank of NATO - has sharply fallen into disrepair. With just a small dose of information in the right ears, our intelligence destroyed the generals and high command of the entire Turkish army, several turntables and put out of action the NATO base inzherlik for some time. Plus, it provided the Syrians with time to resolve the issue of blocking Aleppo. Nda, our MOs have learned to work. It can be stated that VVP can write in its biography a line - "broke the Turks", but the nameless intelligence officers will surely receive a medal - another, well, someone will wash the stars. soldier
      1. Inok10
        Inok10 20 July 2016 23: 50
        Quote: g1v2
        Well, nameless scouts will probably get a medal - another, well, someone will wash the stars.

        ... + ... and how widespread the theme is, how the Author was able to convey, with wide strokes, with a confident hand, all the beauty of what he saw ... the real hand of the Russian Master of Painting is felt ... although it is worth noting, there is some influence or borrowed elements unique to one of the schools of the Mediterranean, which has distinctive features in this region from other schools, in the implementation of some details, although collective creativity or joint discussion of the creative idea can be allowed, since both schools of painting have long-standing family ties ... this can be especially vivid to trace in detail the Airplane and Hotel depicted in the picture in question ... hi
    6. Blondy
      Blondy 21 July 2016 05: 14
      Such gambits are beginning to alarm, one more source:
      Iranian media claim that Russian servicemen decoded Turkish rebel radio communications about the upcoming military coup and warned Turkish intelligence about this several hours before the coup. (Http://
      . That is, it turns out that the situation in Turkey was monitored, who needed to be aware of upcoming events. Then it’s not clear why the Russian tourists were sent in a soft manner by the route to visit the coup, while the competent children of the nasty Erdogan were warned in time. Some kind of strange foreign-domestic policy.
      1. avva2012
        avva2012 21 July 2016 06: 21
        Quote: Blondy Then it’s not clear why Russian tourists were sent in a soft manner by the route to visit the coup, while the competent children of the nasty Erdogan were warned in time. Some kind of strange foreign-domestic policy.

        Negotiations that could detect, could actively begin at the final stage.
  2. Vadim237
    Vadim237 20 July 2016 21: 39
    It was just a good way, sweep out all the unwanted, under one pretext.
    1. Khariton
      Khariton 20 July 2016 22: 10
      Quote: Vadim237
      It was just a good way, sweep out all the unwanted, under one pretext.

      I thought so too ... But doubts are already big (judging by the reaction of the US and the EU)! It’s familiar, as it’s all ..
  3. Observer2014
    Observer2014 20 July 2016 21: 41
    What really happened in Turkey
    Yes, I’m purple and black, what’s going on there! I just saw with my own eyes what they did to a 12-year-old boy. The one who supported (supports) these animals is nothing better. Vakumnuyu "dad of all boibs" in the studio !!! Not one but a dozen in this scum!
  4. Vladimir 1964
    Vladimir 1964 20 July 2016 21: 43
    Evgeny Satanovsky, as always, expressed an interesting vision of the situation in Turkey. I will not say that I agree with everything, but nevertheless, the point of view of the author and, accordingly, the article are, it seems to me, of real interest to readers of the site. Well, I always liked Satanovsky’s analytics, regardless of whether I agree with him or not. hi
    PS Thanks to the author, the article is interesting.
    1. Yura
      Yura 20 July 2016 22: 16
      Quote: Vladimir 1964
      Thanks to the author, the article is interesting.

    INVESTOR 20 July 2016 21: 48
    No matter how Russia relates to Erdogan, the victory of the rebellion and the rise to power of someone unclear under the leadership of the United States would be even worse, much worse. For the sake of strategic Crimea, the Americans swelled a lot of money into the Ukrainian Maidan, and here we are talking about control over the whole Bosphorus. But something is not lucky for them so far with the Black Sea ....

    From the Internet.
    1. SSR
      SSR 20 July 2016 22: 22
      Quote: INVESTOR
      No matter how Russia relates to Erdogan, the victory of the rebellion and the rise to power of someone unclear under the leadership of the United States would be even worse, much worse. For the sake of strategic Crimea, the Americans swelled a lot of money into the Ukrainian Maidan, and here we are talking about control over the whole Bosphorus. But something is not lucky for them so far with the Black Sea ....

      From the Internet.

      Thank you so much for your post, many grunt slogans.
    2. Orionvit
      Orionvit 20 July 2016 23: 37
      I have heard this idea for a long time, either Fursov or Zaznobin, commented on the issue of Turkey as a variant of a new "Third Reich" to unleash a full-scale war in the Middle East. Well, the technology has been worked out. With the help of Hitler, then they practically destroyed the whole of Europe, now they will destroy the entire Middle East, if not more. And those who are not yet at war will be involved. Erdogan in all respects is suitable for the role of the new "Fuhrer", the same possessed and ambitious. By the way, the states have already raised the issue of Turkey's exclusion from NATO. There are many analogies and "coincidences" here. And most importantly, as in the First World War, and in the event of a full-scale war in the Middle East, there will be only one country in chocolate, namely the United States. Here, as they say, you don't need to go to your grandmother, and the cat understands.
    3. Paranoid50
      Paranoid50 21 July 2016 00: 22
      Quote: INVESTOR
      But something is not lucky for them so far with the Black Sea ....

      By the way, about the sea ... According to official information, the Turks (not even two days later) sent planes (F-16) in search of the "rebellious squadron". Fourteen ships, Karl! We went to search in the direction of Greece. Is it really, nevertheless, Cyprus? request Well, and to the heap: Erdogan introduced a state of emergency for a period of three months.
  6. water
    water 20 July 2016 21: 59
    Hats off before our military intelligence! I have not seen such an unexpected, beautiful, strong kick in the ass of the USA for a long time!

    Yes, and the article is also not bad.
    1. Khariton
      Khariton 20 July 2016 22: 07
      Quote: watermark
      Hats off before our military intelligence! I have not seen such an unexpected, beautiful, strong kick in the ass of the USA for a long time!

      Yes, and the article is also not bad.

      We can do it when we want ... The EU is bursting at the seams, and now NATO's turn has come! But it's too early to rejoice .... We are waiting for provocations, I think the Ukrainians were given the command "fas", there will be blood!
    2. thimble
      thimble 21 July 2016 01: 42
      This, guys, is just a game of different games: Americans play cards (you can juggle there), and ours play chess (the Soviet chess school affects). I already wrote to InoSMI even before the Turkish apology that the Americans first leaked the information about the flights of our planes to the Turks, and they probably hinted: if something happens, they would have dumped our SU-24 with all the dope and, of course, ruined it in the end relations with Russia, as required by the United States. But when Erdogash traveled to the USA to the funeral of Muhammad Ali (thinking that he was a hero), his muzzle was on the table there, and even then, Germany (not otherwise by prompting from a puddle) recognized the Armenian Genocide, which had not been recognized for more than 100 years. In short, they pointed to his place.
      Erdogan felt like an outcast (which is worse for his vanity than death), and even our sanctions ("You won't get off with tomatoes") began to affect the Turkish economy. I had to apologize, hoping for a normalization of relations with Russia. But this is no longer in the interests of card players. And immediately one after another: the terrorist attack at the Istanbul airport and the attempted military coup. By the way, I will note that most of the highest Turkish military graduates from American military academies. But then our special services made their chess move, and even ahead of schedule: they warned Erdogan about the impending military coup. For information, see But the game, guys, continues ...
      1. thimble
        thimble 21 July 2016 01: 52
        Stop sculpting the Ukrainian flag for me! I have a rest in Crimea, and Crimea (for the information of the site moderators) is Russia!
  7. Indifferent
    Indifferent 20 July 2016 22: 11
    I'm also surprised by our military intelligence! Apparently it was not for nothing that our "radio amateurs" have been creating electronic warfare and other necessary electronic devices for so many years. There is a reason why Erdogan was warned. Most of the top Turkish officers graduated from West Point and other military establishments of the United States and England. This means they are pro-American.
    So our politicians have calculated and chosen the lesser of two evils. What will happen next will show the meeting of Erdogan and Putin.
  8. AlNikolaich
    AlNikolaich 20 July 2016 22: 51
    An interesting movie, but Uncle Zhenya says less than he knows! Here the combination is much trickier! In general, I believe that a very difficult chess game has been played against "enemies". Including with the help of Erdogan's people! The downing of our plane, defamation of Turkey, mutual enmity, Erdogan's apologies, warming of relations, and then a coup, which was too successfully suppressed ... Now the meeting between Putin and Erdogan! The media are already massaging that the Russian special services had a hand in the collapse of the putschists ... Then everything will only be more interesting!
    In short, popcorn and beer with roach! We wait...
    1. Dm-sl
      Dm-sl 21 July 2016 01: 52
      It’s easy to recognize people who are not distant and poorly educated by trying to open the curtain over insanely insidious conspiracies and cunning combinations ... If I studied at school, we should have taught that in order to comprehend the complex, it should not be complicated, but simplified - divided into components. To build beautiful theories from the rubbish of information that is lying on every corner and thinking up where even with this rubbish a hole does not close up, it can be fun, of course, but only the same old half-educated people who have long forgotten how they deuces set for the fact that they couldn’t solve much simpler tasks either, having read and looked at claims to universal truth, but easily digestible material, which felt fullness and satiety from a garbage can filling an empty head, suddenly decided that they finally became smart and they can impressively discuss the fate of the world.
      1. Simpsonian
        Simpsonian 21 July 2016 03: 15
        That's for sure, for the rest it's all taken for granted laughing
  9. atamankko
    atamankko 20 July 2016 22: 53
    The article is interesting, thanks to the author.
  10. Mountain shooter
    Mountain shooter 20 July 2016 23: 28
    Evgeny Yanovich, as usual, is deep and informative in his analysis. We have professionals, really "in the subject", which means that we will make fewer mistakes.
    Erdogan himself provoked the coup, or he was just warned during the time, it doesn’t matter. The situation is already the way it is, there is a great beating of the opposition, and if the death penalty is introduced, so is its physical destruction. We must look at the result of the meeting with GDP.
  11. Bakht
    Bakht 20 July 2016 23: 31
    The source so far is only Iranian

    Erdogan Alerted of Incoming Coup by Russia
  12. Samurai3X
    Samurai3X 20 July 2016 23: 53
    It’s just painful to look at the comments.
    Couch analytics in action ...
  13. gagauz36
    gagauz36 21 July 2016 00: 05
    Evgeny Yan nicely laid out! Thank .
  14. gagauz36
    gagauz36 21 July 2016 00: 15
    IMHO not everything is so simple in the 'Danish' Turkish Sultanate !! The fact is that Erdogan was really supported by the common people. Simple from the word is not rich, oligarchs, and so on .. Unlike the generals, they (the people) have something to lose !!!! According to my school friend, the mortgage is 0,75 year, auto loan 1,75 year. Questions and answers!!...
  15. onizhe
    onizhe 21 July 2016 00: 18
    What else to wait for? The great economic boom has led to massive urbanization. At the same time, residents of rural areas, for whom Islam is not just a word, became citizens. Erdogan caught this wind, and will use it further. He called, and rallied around him, because he is an Islamic hope for them. Army for democracy? And it does not matter to everyone. Now democrats, even in cities, have become a minority. Now we have to wait. Is secular Islam possible in our time?
  16. mihasik
    mihasik 21 July 2016 00: 49
    In modern Russia there are enough lobbyists for the interests of Turkey, Erdogan or his Justice and Development Party.

    Can I name it? And blah blah again?
  17. The comment was deleted.
  18. Fei_Wong
    Fei_Wong 21 July 2016 05: 10
    Quote: hirurg
    I scratch the question if our people find out, but our people find out that they will overthrow the pig, will they warn or not? Here is the question for filling!
    Something is all in the heap Poroshenko, Erdogan.
    Poroshenko is in the sink.
    We need to work with Erdogan.
    Another country of chaos is not necessary!

    Erdogan is a cunning man. At least, himself he fancies himself very cunning. But both the USA and the EU with NATO (read, the same USA, only a profile view) have already given it a ride in the "Turkish Gambit" he is planning. Simply brazenly and cynically using (as in a gop-company they use a salaga "for divorce from a Mabila sucker" ... only the "sucker" turned out to be a bit tough, and the whole gop-bunch faded away quietly, leaving the salaga to take the rap for hitting). And he, moreover, with his imperial ambitions, must experience it twice as painful. So yes, the salug is worth pitying - if he realized (which no one needs and will not need except in the role mad dog second ruins). Of course, there will be no former trust, decades of slowly built trust relationships are crossed out. But the fact that Turkey will change the vector of its policy, if not to an alliance, then at least to neutrality with Russia, is almost certain. For here Erdogan and the West already have personal accounts, and he will not be led to his next ephemeral lollipop. Well, or the candy should be REALLY BIG and under warranty.
    1. Knizhnik
      Knizhnik 22 July 2016 10: 32
      and the whole gop-company shed quietly, leaving a salag to swell for hitting
  19. taseka
    taseka 21 July 2016 06: 39
    After analyzing in advance the results of this "ridiculous" putsch, as a result of which the goat Erdogan will significantly strengthen his power, V. Putin strategically "forgave" Turkey.