Over the course of 2012, the oil price will not fall below 100 dollars per barrel.
Iran threatens to block approximately 20% of world oil supplies, blocking the passage of ships through the Strait of Hormuz, if western countries attempt to prevent oil exports from Iran in an attempt to hinder Iran’s nuclear program. In addition, instability in Iraq threatens the prospects for increased production of Iraqi oil.
According to some investment banks, prices for benchmark oil at New York auction in 2012 will average $ 110 per barrel, while Brent oil, which affects the price of oil in most parts of the world, will be about $ 115 per barrel, write the article authors Rick Gladstone and Dayan Cardwell.
“The possibility of interruptions in the supply of oil in 2012 due to Iran’s countermeasures, I think, added to the cost of oil 10-20 dollars on an ongoing basis,” said Bernard Baumol, the main global economist at Economic Outlook Group. There is a danger that oil will move to 130-dollar mark or even higher. This can happen in the event of increased confrontation. Then we can talk about the prospect of immersion of European countries and the United States in recession. The global economy can expect a significant recession. "
According to economists, prices will remain high, despite the relative weakness of the European and American economies, since the global demand for various petroleum products, primarily diesel fuel, is constantly growing.
"There is an opinion that the high cost of oil will continue throughout the 2012 year. This is due to the premise that the developing economies of the rest of the world will increase fuel consumption," said Tom Clause, who is the main oil analyst at Oil Price Information Service.
At the same time, there is uncertainty in the forecasts - according to some analysts, the cost will eventually drop much lower due to increased production in North America and Libya, or even sharply fall in the event of an economic collapse in Europe.
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