“Favorite” for Baku (News-Azerbaijan)

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“Favorite” for Baku (News-Azerbaijan)Recently, the press has been actively discussing the prospects for Russia’s supplying Azerbaijan with the C-300 anti-aircraft missile systems. Assumptions have been made that Azerbaijan is starting to purchase C-300 exclusively for one single purpose - preparation for an early war with Armenia.

Recently, as a result of a noticeable complication of the negotiation process on the Karabakh settlement, because of the reluctance of Armenia to accept the updated Madrid principles, which the co-chairs of the OSCE Minsk Group insist on accepting and with which, in general, Azerbaijan agreed, the probability of the military Action between Azerbaijan and Armenia.

In this context, this step of Russia has caused a mixed reaction in both Yerevan and Moscow. In Moscow, as the main reason for which Russia decided to sell its C-N00 complex to its southern neighbor, it was right now that it was impossible to implement agreements previously reached with Iran on the same issue, because of sanctions against the Islamic Republic adopted a couple of months ago. Azerbaijan is considered by Russia as one of the alternative buyers of anti-aircraft missile systems, previously intended for Tehran. In addition to Azerbaijan, several other countries appear in the list of potential buyers, for example, Venezuela and Turkey.

At the same time, Russian military experts believe that in the near future it will be difficult to find alternatives to Iran. According to the director of the World Trade Analysis Center weapons (TsAMTO) Igor Korotchenko, the loss of Russia as a result of the refusal of military technical cooperation (MTC) with Iran can range from 11 to 13 billions of dollars.

Recall that the amount of a possible contract with Azerbaijan for the supply of two divisions of the Favorites is 300 million, i.e. almost 15% of the defense budget of Azerbaijan. And the total amount of the contract for the supply of five divisions of the C-300PMU-1 anti-aircraft missile system (ZRS) to Tehran, concluded in 2007, is about 800 million dollars. In case of cancellation of this agreement, Moscow will be forced to pay Iran penalties for violation of the commitments made, which can be up to 10% of the contract value. Thus, the total loss of the Russian Federation due to the cancellation of the contract for the supply of C-300 SAMs can be estimated at 900 million dollars.

But, in all this stories interesting is the assumption that Russia is starting a new, more active military policy with respect to its South Caucasus partner, Azerbaijan.

According to some Russian publications in the Russian military department, Azerbaijani cadets, including those studying C-300, have been studying at the Military Academy of Aerospace Defense in Tver for several years. With regard specifically to the transaction on the sale of Baku "Favorites", then apparently this transaction is only planned, although a fundamental decision on this matter is most likely already made by the government.

By the way, the possibility of purchasing Baku’s C-300 complexes and Russian Ambassador to Azerbaijan Vladimir Dorokhin did not disprove. “We, by virtue of our commitments, give information to the United Nations and other international organizations on the sale of weapons,” the ambassador said diplomatically, “and if such an event took place, we will inform them.” But the deputy head of the press service of the Ministry of Defense of Azerbaijan, Teymur Abdullayev, commenting on the possibility of acquiring the newest air defense system from Russia, stated unequivocally: "Azerbaijan will systematically strengthen its army and will continue to carry out activities in this direction."

The day before, the head of the presidential administration of Russia Sergey Naryshkin was in Baku. During the meetings, he reportedly discussed preparations for the upcoming official visit of President Dmitry Medvedev to Azerbaijan in September. Whether the contract for the acquisition of C-300 PMU-2 was discussed was, of course, not reported.

As Lieutenant-General Yuri Netkachev, who once was deputy commander of the Group of Russian Forces in the Transcaucasus, formally, there are no obstacles to selling new modern air defense systems to Azerbaijan.

Of course, in the current situation, many questions arise. First, why does Azerbaijan need such complexes? Secondly, is it in the interests of Russia to strengthen military ties with Azerbaijan, which, as we know, is in confrontational relations with Moscow’s collective defense ally, Armenia? Yes, to do it on the eve of the informal summit of the heads of the CSTO states not just anywhere - but in Yerevan.

In all likelihood, during the summit Russia and Armenia will sign a protocol, according to which changes are made to the treaty on the Russian military base in Armenia. In accordance with the draft protocol, changes will be made to the base agreement, according to which “the Russian military base on the territory of Armenia, in addition to carrying out functions to protect the interests of the Russian Federation, ensures, jointly with the Armenian armed forces, the security of this republic”. To achieve these goals, the Russian Federation “assists in providing Armenia with modern and compatible weapons, military (special) equipment,” as the draft protocol says.

Under these conditions, some observers are wondering: how will Moscow explain to Yerevan the possibility of selling “Favorite” Baku during this period?

Experts believe that this will not be so difficult. First of all, the “Favorite” is an object weapon, that is, it exists to shield large strategic, industrial facilities from a possible aerospace attack. Therefore, Russian complexes will be located on the Absheron peninsula and will most likely protect the oil terminals of the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline and the city of Baku itself. Yes, besides, the C-300 complex is not a weapon of attack and is unable to change the balance of power in the region.

There are fears that in the near future the United States or Israel may inflict pinpoint strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities, in response to which Tehran will try to interrupt the supply of oil to the United States and other countries, namely, strikes on oil facilities in the Persian Gulf and the Caspian Sea. For this reason, Azerbaijan can use C-300 to ensure the air safety of the oil terminals of the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline, as well as Baku itself.

What is Russia's interest, because if the oil pipelines in this region are somehow paralyzed, Russia will become practically the monopoly supplier of oil on the continent? Why should Russia protect, in general, not its pipes?

Probably, because all this can happen, or maybe not, but 300 million dollars, and even in the face of a practical breakdown of the contract with Iran, are not lying on the road.
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