The “expert opinion” that we offer to your opinion concerns exclusively the actions of the Turkish army. What was presented as a coup attempt, on closer examination, is more like a farce or a very unfortunate production. We did not specifically address the political and other components, but focused on those issues that, in our opinion, this putsch, more precisely, his attempt, set us. Moreover, one of the writers took part in such events.
One could even draw some analogies dated 1991 the year we have in Russia. But we will not do this, because we have associations with an earlier period in our stories. 1937 came to mind year. But - in order.
So, who mostly took part in the coup. These were the commanders of the level of the battalion brigade, which implies a higher military education. It is known that Turkish officers received education not only at home, but also abroad. As in Europe, by the way, and with us. Yes, there were such times.
And in each, we emphasize, in each army (if it is really an army, and not a militia or gang) there is such a thing as a combat statute, guided by every commander, from branch to division.
When receiving a combat mission, any commander must do the following things:
1. Understand the task.
2. Rate the situation.
3. Decide on how he will act.
4. Conduct a reconnaissance.
5. Based on all of the above, to give a military order to his subordinates.
Next comes the practical implementation on the basis of the done. Verification of personnel, equipment, support, interaction with neighbors and further in the text of the charter. And at the appointed time, after reporting to the higher command about readiness, the combat mission begins.
We look at what happened in Turkey
The first thing that caught my eye was the absence of a putsch commander. It is the one who gives the order to start the operation. Highlighted at least two leaders. It is the leader, but not the commander. The chief military prosecutor and the former commander-in-chief of the Air Force. Doubtful duet, anyway. About the prosecutor simply keep silent, to the address of the former commander-in-chief of the Air Force, we note only that not all heavenly matters are applicable to earthly affairs. But in its place, the commander-in-chief of the ground forces, or at least a combined-armsman or tankman, would have looked more appropriately.
When the coup began, everything seemed to be right, if according to Lenin. Bridges, telegraph and so on. But a sequel ... Even if we consider that, as in the Greek scenario, there was a junta of "black colonels," even in this case, the attempted coup looked more than strange.
Even those of the officers of the level of major-colonel who supported the idea of the coup, in fact, simply did not know their task. From here absolutely fuzzy action of all divisions. We don’t even speak about the soldiers who participated in the putsch; the soldier executes the order given to him by the commanders.
What distinguishes the military from civilians in this regard? One, but an important factor: the military, operating in the area of their deployment (that is what we saw), have knowledge of the area and the environment and are able to block everything and everyone in the area of its location, if not in minutes, then in hours. Proved by the Crimea, if that.
All the talk about the possibilities of the police and special services is about nothing, because, no matter how prepared the specialists, the army team has two important advantages: a quantitative factor and the presence of heavy equipment.
Here we clearly have that, having both personnel and tanks, commanders simply did not use this advantage. Either because they did not know what to do, or ... But more on that later.
You can say a lot about the fact that a tank in a city is not a cake, and surely many will cite Grozny as an example in First Chechen. But the tank in the city is not the best weaponwhen they are waiting for him there. When anti-tank positions are equipped, when these anti-tank players have a place to be. In reality, however, that Ankara, that Istanbul, everything that the police could oppose at the first moment, are MP-5 submachine guns. That is, the police would simply be swept away. What happened in some episodes.
Judging by the way the units acted in Ankara and Istanbul, even the time of readiness was not appointed, we don’t even speak about the time of a clear start. Obviously, it was not. Moreover, the very time of the beginning of the coup was chosen more than strange. This should be said in more detail, I guess.
Why were all significant offensive operations of past wars assigned to the “dog watch”, that is, to the interval from 2 to 6 in the morning? Everything is simple: it is this time that is biologically and genetically “stitched” in the human body as a time of rest. And to “get involved” in what is happening is most difficult, especially if you are not ready for this. Proved and 22.06.1941, and many other historical dates.
Here we have the fact that the coup started at a time when the streets are still full of people. That would definitely lead to a large number of civilian casualties. And led in the end. Strange choice.
The actions of the coup forces themselves also cause mixed feelings. The fact that the Air Force acted on its own, and the ground units themselves, is obvious. But in the actions of the first and second there was no single goal.
Moreover, the use of combat aircraft in urban environments is more than doubtful. An attack aircraft would have been somehow understandable, but a fighter ... Suppose even a fighter-bomber. The attack of the parliament (and the bridge by Erdogan’s supporters) with the help of F-15 took more lives of civilians than caused damage to opponents. Recall the episode in Donetsk, about the same.
For what the aircraft flew, for which the helicopter opened fire on absolutely recognizable civilians, it is not clear.
Unless we take for dogma the fact that we actually have a bunch of organisms (that is) with tanks, airplanes, helicopters, but who absolutely do not understand how to handle all this good. From here and a syndrome of "monkey with a grenade", from here and victims, from here and zero result.
But at the disposal of the putschists was precisely the force that is able to neutralize any special service. And this is not about army intelligence or military special forces. Normal blunt-infantry in sufficient quantities, but with tanks. And support helicopters. We're not an American action movie, are we? All the rembs with leybakom "Made in Turkey" would have remained if something happens there, at the scene, who smeared on the asphalt, who was buried in the rubble after a shot of a tank gun. Turkey is not Russia, who the hell would be with a grenade under the tank rushed in the case of a serious batch.
But "not soared"
Moreover, there was information in the reports that the specialists and the police were collected at home in emergency mode, and it took at least three hours.
Decision-making. The most important item that has not been met. More precisely, some decision was made, but now find out which one is already too late. Yes, and not necessary.
Began the coup. Stupidly, but started. And they started hard. The shelling of parliament, civilians, captured the media, seized the bridge. AND?
And that is all
No one spoke to the media and announced the goal of the putsch and the next steps. That is, to bring to the population and the rest of the goals and objectives. And to proceed further under the same Charter. It was not announced who becomes the leader. The control system has not been implemented.
Accordingly, the BZ was not organized in the field. In the rest of the places, for Ankara and Istanbul are not yet Turkey. Accordingly, most of the army was not aware of what is happening. And to attract this part of the announcement of the overthrow of Erdogan would not be so difficult, given that the military did not personally swear allegiance to Erdogan ...
Such oddities, which are hammered into the head of an officer as early as the first year of any decent military high school, cause the feeling that the coup was organized and planned by civilians. Turkey in its history has already experienced several coups, which were organized by the military, and organized quite successfully. But what we saw here is not similar to the work of the military.
What did tragicomedy, called a putsch, tell us?
First of all, the power and capabilities of the Turkish army must be revised. Yes, in terms of numbers and technology on paper, this is still the second NATO army, but ...
That link of the officer corps of the Turkish army, which should conduct military operations, is not capable of planning, organizing and conducting a military operation. And if the colonel majors are not capable of these actions, then the lowest level of officers will at least be under their pressure. An illiterate person will never teach another to read and write.
Army morale. Those officers who supported the coup, most likely, supported him quite sincerely. Either they really disagreed with Erdogan’s policy, or hoped for further preferences and growth if successful. Naturally, by the way.
However, as soon as the coup stalled, what happened happened. Army units, well-armed, with armored vehicles and tanks, surrendered to the police. Where to laugh, where to cry?
And in order to land on the air force, it took to shoot down one helicopter. Let even with someone from the leaders of the coup. Well, and declare that "we will shoot down all."
In the comments, readers will say that Erdogan is to blame for this situation, who in 2007-2008 persistently destroyed and repressed the officer corps. We will agree.
That is why, at the beginning of our analysis, we took over the comparison line not 1991 year, but 1937. It was in 1937 that the changes occurred in the Red Army, the fruits of which were reaped in 1941.
The situation is similar. In Turkey, there was just such a change of commanders. And that is why we often observe a repetition of the events of New Russia. When yesterday's miners, drivers and grain-growers thrashed the cadre army of Ukraine in the tail and in the mane. And in Turkey, its counterpart - the Kurds. Which quite successfully oppose the second army of NATO. And now it becomes clear why.
About the technique two words. Techniques involved a little, moreover, all of it was used for other purposes. That is also an indicator of the effectiveness of the Turkish military.
We do not know for sure whether Erdogan took off, or whether it was a fake, but this has nothing to do with the topic of our conversation. But what is to capture an airfield or, alternatively, Ataturk Airport?
For this, a smart officer needs a platoon of soldiers. And a little crazy. At a minimum, the tank is able to break through without noticing the cargo gate of the airport and decompose on the runway. In the middle. And that's all. Nobody will sit down, no one will fly. Two lanes? Well, two tanks. And do not think about what or how to shoot down the plane with Erdogan, if you can just not let him fly. For particularly stubborn, there is a tank gun capable of dissuading any Boeing from take-off.
And the most probably interesting question. Was it all necessary for the Turkish army? If you look closely, then, apparently, is not necessary. It is precisely this that can explain so illiterate and unorganized actions. As some excuse, nothing more.
But the most recent and most interesting question: what next?
And then, as we see, there will be arrests and further purging of the army. What has already been arrested around 3 thousands of military, says a lot. And the fact that realizing that the European Union does not shine for him, Erdogan can easily deal with the part of the officer corps that does not suit him. Someone will be executed, someone will be put. There is no doubt about it.
But who will serve will remain? Who, sorry, will fight the Kurds? Yes, there is no official war, but there is fighting. Plus terrorism, with which Erdogan seems to be going to fight. Although terrorism can be fought on paper, as NATO partners.
The reorganization of Turkey as a whole is coming, from democracy to authoritarianism. Coming, of course, and the restructuring of the army from professionalism to loyalty to the regime. Familiar in Ukraine, is not it? "Who does not jump, that in lustration".
But, unfortunately, the Turkish army is not expecting anything good. Yes, she will be obedient to Erdogan, and he will not have to wait for the next coup or another backstab.
However, there is another nuance. Yes, 1937 year performed by Erdogan in 2016 will lead to the fact that many officers of all levels will fall either into the next world or into prison. But much or will remain to serve, under the flag of the fact that the case for him at any time can be taken out of the box, or will be dismissed. Just in case, as not quite loyal.
There is already another rake. Iraqi. Remember where many of Hussein’s officers were after his execution? That's right, in ISIS. And this, we note, were not the worst officers. Many studied and in our institutions. Who will say what is not an option for a Turkish officer, over whom hung the threat of deprivation of life or liberty? And what is not an option for relatives of those executed and repressed in terms of revenge? It is a possible option.
So, in conclusion, we want to summarize our conclusions.
1. The Turkish army turned out to be far from such a steep formation, as we thought before.
2. Turkish officers, who remained after the first wave of purges, do not correspond to the rank of officers of the second NATO army.
3. The army of Turkey is waiting for at least one more wave of repression, which will not have a positive effect on its condition.
And in conclusion we will make one strange conclusion: Russia is not particularly profitable. Yes, we do not consider Turkey an ally. Especially after certain events. However, it is worthwhile to consider what is more profitable: a stable Turkey or a Turkish mess, which Erdogan might not cope with?