Military Review

The future of Germany. Between puppet and empire

37
The future of Germany. Between puppet and empire



In order to better understand the actions of the German leadership in the international arena, it is necessary to take into account the whole set of challenges that now face Berlin and firmly understand that Ukraine, Syria, ISIL and even relations with Russia as a whole are not a priority for Angela Merkel’s office. The priority place is firmly occupied by the question of the survival of the European project itself and its future, which is not at all cloudless.

The main question that Merkel had to answer at a recent press conference was about ... Italian banks. More precisely, their portfolio of toxic loans for 360 billion euros, which can sink the Italian banking sector, and then cause a wave of bank failures of European banks. You can ask a reasonable question about why Merkel should deal with the problems of Italian banks, but the question will be superfluous. In today's Europe, Berlin is responsible for everything, and at the same time it pleases and scares our Teutonic neighbors.

The exit of Great Britain from the European Union was a shock and a gift from heaven for the German elite in one bottle. On the one hand, the exit of Britain is a severe blow to the European Union, suggesting a sharp deterioration in its image, which the Germans have been working on for decades. On the other hand, Great Britain was the main lever of influence on the European policy from Washington, and therefore, after Brexit, Berlin had a whole range of new opportunities, but also new risks.

Berlin took advantage of some of the possibilities immediately. The negotiations on the "Transatlantic Partnership", which the United States, like air, needs in order to fix the colonial status of the EU has reached an impasse. The French were the official brakes, but the British and American media complain about the behavior of the German negotiators and Vice Chancellor Sigmar Gabriel, who do nothing to unlock the situation. According to the apt source of the Financial Times, the negotiations on the “Transatlantic Partnership” were “finished off” after the “Brexit”.

German financial centers are trying to replace London in the financial sphere of the European Union, and this causes serious irritation to other countries and British banks that hoped to maintain their influence in Europe, despite the exit from the European Union. Buses and special advertising vehicles with posters "Dear Startupers! Keep Calm and Move to Berlin!" - and this is only the most visible sign of the efforts of Germany to "squeeze" the British economic influence from the EU. It is very possible that British banks will face the fact that the European regulator of the banking and financial sector will deny them the so-called "passport", that is, permission to directly provide their services to European companies and individuals, which will lead to huge losses for the British financial sector and significant growth in the client base of German banks and funds.
The pressure of political opponents and business lobbyists makes Angela Merkel publicly resurrect the idea of ​​a common economic space from Lisbon to Vladivostok, of course, with all the reservations necessary to save face in front of Washington, but here the fact of recognizing the need to build some partnerships with Moscow rather than another iron curtain, on which Russophobic segments of the American and German establishment insist so much. The same trend fits well with the position of the German and Austrian foreign ministers, who are in favor of a “gradual lifting of sanctions from Russia”, as quasi-official Brussels media have reported with deep regret.

Statements by the German Foreign Minister, who reprimanded NATO for "sagging weapons"on the Russian border within the framework of the American exercises - also from the same series of actions that run counter to the policy of Washington, which is already dissatisfied with the intensification of Russian-German business cooperation and the fact that German investments in the Russian economy are breaking records despite sanctions.

However, the “German rebellion” cannot but cause quite tangible and even fierce resistance from the pro-American part of the German establishment and radical interventionists from the American elite. Those who are trying to reformat the EU in such a way that it primarily serves the German, rather than American interests, are under heavy pressure, which manifests itself in the economic, political and military sphere. Americans persistently try to repeat the old trick by organizing the most destructive conflict on the European continent, in which Germany and Russia will once again besiege each other. The recent decisions of the NATO summit and the wording about the risks associated with Russia, which are included in Germany’s new military doctrine (White Paper), point to US pressure on Berlin and attempts to force Germany to participate in the militarization of Europe and pay for this militarization directed against Russia .

In economic terms, the main German vulnerability is Deutsche Bank, which has serious problems with its portfolio of 72.8 trillion-dollar derivative contracts and its own capital deficit. The slightest mistake, the default of one of the major counterparties or a large fine from the American regulator (modeled on the fine that Washington has punished BNP Paribas for failing to comply with the restrictions imposed by the State Department) will easily force the flagship of the German economy to sink. Most likely, all parts of the German and American establishments understand that the bankruptcy of Deutsche Bank can lead to a collapse of not only European, but also the American financial system, and this is the only thing that so far gives the bank a chance to continue working.

At the political level, the conflict between supporters of the existence of Germany as a colony of the United States and supporters of independent Germany sometimes spills into public squabbles between members of the Merkel government. An echo of one of these conflicts is public criticism of Foreign Minister Steinmeier by Finance Minister Schäuble, who said that Steinmeier’s statement about NATO "weapon saber" was "not only a rhetorical mistake" and demanded a tougher stance against Russia.

The struggle within the German establishment is far from complete and now it is impossible to say anything definite about the future of Germany and about the future of its relations with the United States, Russia and Europe. However, there are several important time cut-offs for understanding the situation. The first cut-off is the end of 2016 of the year. If by that time the Americans fail to "push through" the signing of the Transatlantic Partnership, this will be a serious defeat for Washington and a great victory for those who are working to separate Europe from the United States. The second cut-off is the end of January 2017. If sanctions against Russia are extended in their current form, this will be a bad sign of the growing influence of the United States and the suppression of the European front, while the decision to gradually lift the sanctions will be a positive signal. The last cutoff is autumn 2017 of the year. According to the results of the elections in Germany, it will be possible to judge who will have a decisive influence on the policies of Berlin and on the future of the entire European project. The defeat of pro-American politicians will mean that the European Union is waiting for radical changes.

Today there are reasons for restrained optimism and for believing that Russian-German cooperation has certain chances for the future. The Kremlin’s strategy in the European direction gives encouraging results, and it’s not long to wait for a final clarification of the situation.
Author:
Originator:
http://politrussia.com/world/budushchee-germanii-mezhdu-642/
37 comments
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  1. hirurg
    hirurg 16 July 2016 22: 10
    +12
    Firstly, Germany, even after the collapse of the USSR, remained essentially occupied.
    Secondly, "no one" knows where the gold and foreign exchange reserves of Germany are. (France also concerns. De Gaulle tried but ..)
    Thirdly, "no one" knows what kind of compromising evidence exists on the Angel, that she is so accommodating.
    Well, the banks are tied.
    Therefore, the whole of Europe will be a vassal of the United States until the US Empire collapses. Either there is no real strong-willed and strong leader who will be ready to sacrifice many things and rally the people around him in this case of Germany.
    1. iliitchitch
      iliitchitch 16 July 2016 23: 33
      +5
      Quote: hirurg
      Therefore, the whole of Europe will be a vassal of the United States until the US Empire collapses. Either there is no real strong-willed and strong leader who will be ready to sacrifice many things and rally the people around him in this case of Germany.


      "And I didn't go, I bought bloodworms and went to the river, I love fishing."
      Do what you want, you need us, and not vice versa, here you go, and we will still think about your behavior. Something in the West diminished confidence after we scored on sanctions. Especially among the Anglo-Saxons, wow they are afraid that we will agree with the Germans, for centuries they have had this terrible dream. But the Bundes and I have common themes, and neither they nor we pursued a colonial policy, we only counted on ourselves. German Ordnung + Russisch creative = move on the throne, mandarin oranges divorced here. The French are already responsible for the robbery of the colonies, and a wave will come to these Euro-American islands, let them prepare. I do not gloat, it’s just that Newton’s 3rd law works not only in physics.
      1. Paranoid50
        Paranoid50 17 July 2016 00: 15
        +4
        Quote: iliitch
        Do what you want, you need us, and not vice versa, here you go, and we will still think about your behavior

        Quite right! From our side - no problems, and full understanding, in the literal sense, because our president speaks German better than half of the current Bundes. The trouble is, they don't seem to quite understand themselves. And the old slogan "Ordnung Huber Alles!" is no longer related to modern Germany, more relevant is "Allahu akbar!" It is a pity, but apart from themselves, "no one will give them deliverance." hi
      2. Tusv
        Tusv 17 July 2016 08: 19
        +2
        Quote: iliitch
        and neither they nor we pursued a colonial policy

        Oops You certainly have not studied the history of the CPSU. It says in black and white that the Second World War is a struggle for the colonies.
        Did Romel come to Africa on a safari or light it up? Generals Lee burned pretty
    2. Ami du peuple
      Ami du peuple 16 July 2016 23: 41
      +11
      Quote: hirurg
      Either there is no real strong-willed and strong leader who will be ready to sacrifice many things and rally the people around him in this case of Germany.
      Like Sarah Wagennknecht? By the way, today is her birthday. I would like to wish success to a clever and truly happy politician for his people. Yes, and just a beautiful woman
      1. iouris
        iouris 16 July 2016 23: 54
        +3
        Rather smart than pretty. However, they do not argue about tastes.
    3. Altona
      Altona 17 July 2016 09: 44
      0
      Quote: hirurg
      Secondly, "no one" knows where the gold and foreign exchange reserves of Germany are. (France also concerns. De Gaulle tried but ..)

      ---------------------
      Where, where, there is gold in Germany, do not worry. The USA just squeezed some of the gold, but it is not there either. The whole peg is now to paper wrappers - US dollar, euro, British pound and Swiss franc. All other currencies are dust. The yuan does not count, it is not yet officially considered "freely convertible". Banks and stock exchanges have long been mired in derivatives, but they cannot do anything because all assets are ugly overpriced. Start popping these bubbles, there will be a big arctic fox in the global economy. Therefore, either new issues or a war to write off losses.
      1. hirurg
        hirurg 17 July 2016 15: 15
        0
        Clamped a PIECE of gold?
        And the yuan is already considered a freely convertible currency! (The decision will enter into force on October 01, 2016)
  2. aksakal
    aksakal 16 July 2016 22: 11
    +4
    Nice analytics, I liked the article ... Anglo-Saxons in their role - and eat a fish, and sit down on something laughing To arrange Brexit, that is, to get rid of some thread of unpleasant obligations in the EU, but at the same time to keep all those nishtyaks (well, the same benefits of "certification" from the EU regulator) that British banks still use, and when interfere with this cunning - still get annoyed laughing
    1. Tusv
      Tusv 17 July 2016 08: 58
      +1
      Quote: Xaxal
      Good analytics, I liked the article

      "Scientist and pedant" (c) Alexander Sergeevich
      A pedant, at the time of Pushkin, a man who knows everything, but superficially, according to Veresaev.
      About BienPi Prab. The Germans threw them from the Dresdner Bank, the Americans stupidly finished off, but the Dresdner bank was devoured by the Alliance, But the mouse pad remained laughing
  3. Mountain shooter
    Mountain shooter 16 July 2016 22: 33
    +4
    The Berlin-Moscow-Beijing axis is Washington’s worst nightmare. It will break into a cake so that this axis will NEVER work.
    1. hirurg
      hirurg 16 July 2016 22: 46
      +15
      Here, the half-axis is enough Berlin-Moscow.
      Second axis: Moscow-Beijing.
      Well, and Moscow differential.
      How do you like this?
      1. Ami du peuple
        Ami du peuple 17 July 2016 00: 20
        +3
        Quote: hirurg
        Well, and Moscow differential.
        How do you like this?
        Super analogy, buddy! good
        1. hirurg
          hirurg 17 July 2016 00: 22
          0
          Thank you)))
    2. iliitchitch
      iliitchitch 17 July 2016 01: 23
      0
      Quote: Mountain Shooter
      The Berlin-Moscow-Beijing axis is Washington’s worst nightmare. It will break into a cake so that this axis will NEVER work.


      Well, let it hurt, look at the slap mayonnaise and then move on.
      1. pioner77
        pioner77 17 July 2016 11: 47
        0
        axis too forgot about india
    3. Mavrikiy
      Mavrikiy 17 July 2016 06: 18
      +1
      Quote: Mountain Shooter
      The Berlin-Moscow-Beijing axis is Washington’s worst nightmare. It will break into a cake so that this axis will NEVER work.

      Right! Stick the "Warsaw" stick into this axle, the wheel will not spin. Warsaw is state-of-the-art and it is required to change the political leader in Europe ... There was England, now there will be Poland.
  4. atamankko
    atamankko 16 July 2016 22: 40
    +1
    It’s evident that Frau got into something very hard,
    therefore, obeys the whistle from the United States.
  5. uzer 13
    uzer 13 16 July 2016 22: 49
    +1
    I have no reason for cautious optimism. Someone has pumped considerable funds into the destroyed post-war Germany to make it an exemplary prosperous capitalist state as an example of the superiority of the capitalist system. It’s not a matter of compromising on Merkel. They just offer to pay off for old things. Therefore and gold cannot be removed from American vaults. Germany will always be a puppet of the United States.
  6. Monos
    Monos 16 July 2016 22: 51
    +5
    I imagine Europeans like that - funny morons.
    Joyfully stomping somewhere where a groovy dude with a guitar leads them.
    1. Sirocco
      Sirocco 17 July 2016 04: 00
      +4
      Quote: Monos
      I imagine Europeans like that - funny morons.
      Joyfully stomping somewhere where a groovy dude with a guitar leads them.

      I have a slightly different idea of ​​what is going on there, I’ll hit them, so to speak, of them, their pipe)))))
      There was such a character in the tale of the Gommel Pied Piper.
  7. xant
    xant 16 July 2016 22: 55
    0
    The future of Germany is the youngest partner of Great Russia! or she just doesn’t have a future.
    1. iouris
      iouris 16 July 2016 23: 57
      +1
      We have united Germany. Now Germany must unite us. We ourselves are not able to do this.
      1. Mavrikiy
        Mavrikiy 17 July 2016 06: 29
        +2
        Quote: iouris
        We have united Germany. Now Germany must unite us. We ourselves are not able to do this.

        And Germany has no other choice. If Germany thinks a lot, the United States will unite Poland with the Ruin, and then Poland will be the leader in Europe. Not economic, but political. Nord Stream 2 will be closed, TAPok will be signed. The states will arm Poland militarily ...
        A united Europe will not be the Reich, but Polonia, "from sea to sea"
    2. Shurik70
      Shurik70 16 July 2016 23: 58
      +8
      Quote: xant
      The future of Germany is the youngest partner of Great Russia! or she just doesn’t have a future.

      Don't talk about "junior", "senior".
      I’m quite happy with just a partner.
      The most adequate nation in Europe (except for the Swiss).
      Without the Germany-Russia alliance, the whole world has no future. Because England and the United States will then inevitably, sooner or later, strike a nuclear strike at us. And we will answer.
      1. yuriy55
        yuriy55 17 July 2016 03: 41
        +1
        Quote: Shurik70
        Don't talk about "junior", "senior" ...


        It is right. Something painfully troublesome thing is seniority, it looks like "let's write ... we shall measure ourselves" ... Without tame Germany there will be no influence of the Anglo-Saxons on Europe. As soon as the strengthening of Germany-Russia ties begins, spray of foam from the mad elephant and donkey fly around the world yes
        These vile overseas leaders will fight to the last, if they smell another potential leader ... It’s time for the world to move away from ambitions and claims to each other and try to live as a developed civilization should be, respecting the right to life, observing moral principles ...
  8. xant
    xant 16 July 2016 22: 59
    0
    Rather, about the future of Germany (what it could be) in 30 years, the German Turks will tell us! laughing
    1. yuriy55
      yuriy55 17 July 2016 03: 46
      +4
      Or, perhaps, confine ourselves to the future of Germany the presence of the titular nation? Turks and Turkey will be quite enough ... It is time to pay attention to their capital: such a swelling is acceptable for bread dough, and not for ... new Constantinople No.
  9. afrikanez
    afrikanez 16 July 2016 23: 46
    0
    Berlin has a whole range of new opportunities
    More neither when nor anything in Germany will not appear. So far, the Yankees run the EU. This is just an illusion of owning a position in Europe and nothing more. Everyone understands perfectly well who "rules" everyone so that there is no need to build unnecessary illusions. Germany will definitely remain a puppet, no matter what and whoever says it.
    1. yuriy55
      yuriy55 17 July 2016 03: 49
      +3
      Quote: afrikanez
      Germany will definitely remain a puppet ...


      Remind the history of ancient Egypt, Rome, Persia? And about what we don’t know yet, it’s better not to speak ... Do not stay in an awkward position yes
    2. kotvov
      kotvov 17 July 2016 10: 31
      0
      . Germany will definitely remain a puppet, whoever and what would not say. ,,
      never say never.
  10. vobels
    vobels 17 July 2016 07: 31
    0
    ".. The struggle within the German establishment is far from over and now it is impossible to say anything definite about the future of Germany and about the future of its relations with the United States, Russia and Europe .." It is necessary to wait for the completion of these "three cuts" and at the same time to influence the sane German establishment, so as not to be left with nothing.
  11. grandfather Mih
    grandfather Mih 17 July 2016 07: 49
    0
    "radical interventionists from the American elite" - from the topic of the article. In Russian for "tse Europe" Nulandikhifik you, not pis.
  12. guzik007
    guzik007 17 July 2016 08: 02
    +2
    Here we have traditionally scolded Frau Merkel. And she is, and so and so. Only the case is much more complicated. But didn’t you think that in Germany there is also a fifth column with its own powerful lobby, like our own. After all, we also do not always fully understand Putin’s actions, which only speaks about the possibilities of these groups. It is understandable that Merkel is forced to maneuver, taking into account both their desires and their capabilities. Otherwise, it will simply be ground to powder.
    With all this, I think that Merkel is well aware that the economy and the future of Germany will be saved only by an alliance with Russia. But there is one more aspect on the political field, where they play not checkers, but chess. And we remember very well how many "checkers", brilliant and bright, flew from this field in our lifetime.
    And among them the overwhelming majority were fans to play "Chapaya"
    Merkel’s fact of political longevity already indicates that she is a grand master, and according to her recent actions, it seems to me that she carefully leads her party to draw closer to us, trying not to hurt the interests of opposing forces.
  13. Bayun
    Bayun 17 July 2016 14: 00
    0
    The world is NETWORKED. It used to be that "civilization" could be overwhelmed by the "assassination of the archduke". Now there is no.

    Yes, the banking system is, in fact, a "HITTING GAME". But the golden ball IS, and it can always be presented to the loser. The only question is who is Russian: the honest of the "spectators" who will beat a sharpie or a "bouncer" paired with a thimble ...

    PS: in the German "thimble", as always, there will be EXACTLY no ball;)