Military Review

"Caliphate" is not the same

37
In the American press leaked information about the imminent departure in the deaf underground militants "IG". The builders of the “caliphate” from the “Islamic State” are preparing for defeat on the open battlefield. Bearded men admit that in half a year they lost a quarter of the previously occupied territories. The field commanders are dying, and the survivors are inclined not to military confrontation, but to terrorist tactics.




About the new strategic ideas of the "defeatists" from "IG" told the world the newspaper Washington Post.

Yes, the IG launches terrorist attacks around the globe, and yet the militants are already preparing themselves and preparing their followers for a possible “caliphate collapse”, which “was proclaimed with great fanfare two years ago,” the newspaper notes.

The group commanders publicly admit (especially recently in Syria) that they are losing on the battlefield. And even fear that their fortifications may fall before the onslaught of the enemy.

On the other hand, the terrorists do not intend to surrender. They promise to “continue the struggle” even if the opposing armies “drive” them into the “underground”.

US counterterrorism experts believe that the terrorist attacks in Istanbul and Baghdad with a large number of victims were largely a response to military actions against ISIS in Iraq and Syria. Such terrorist attacks are likely to continue and spread. At least, this will be the case at the initial stage, analysts say, since the network structure of the grouping allows it to carry out just such a strategy and tactics, moreover, “on at least three continents”.

Indeed, if the loss of territory constitutes a serious blow to the Islamic State — severely limiting, for example, the ability of terrorists to raise money, train recruits or plan complex operations, then the decentralized nature of the group’s activities ensures that the threat “for some time” remains. So say some officials from the United States, as well as former employees of various American structures. For example, Michael Hayden, a retired Air Force general who led the CIA from 2006 to 2009, said that at one time, Al-Qaida was a hierarchical and somewhat controlled organization, but “these guys” are something else. Their power is “unpredictable,” and their “populism” is a success.

The Islamists themselves, or rather, their “officials”, in public speeches and in interviews broadcast on Internet radio services, argue that the “Caliphate” project is still viable, but military setbacks imply a change in strategy. They report that their other divisions, as well as capital and “mass media” are moved “to different countries”.

Every day, say the Islamists, people go to the "IG" who want to join the "caliphate." A certain militant himself told the Western media about this, asking not to be named. “But we tell them to stay in their countries and wait patiently for the time to do something there,” the terrorist noted.

All this sounds, of course, frightening. In the meantime, the situation in Syria and Iraq is clearly not in favor of IS, and it promises a defeat for the militants. "Signs of despair are growing inside the caliphate every week," notes the American newspaper. The territory of the “caliphate” has decreased by another 12 percent in the first six months of the year 2016 (according to expert data). In the Syrian enclave "IG" in one province, the activity of the so-called Internet cafes was discontinued. Also, the commanders themselves ordered the destruction of a television station and satellite dishes in another province. Thus, the group will soon be cut off from the outside world.

Over the past six weeks, Islamist “officials” have been receiving more and more open statements about the impending fall of the IG. "Warriors of Allah" are retreating everywhere, from Fallujah in central Iraq to the Syrian-Turkish border.

But just two years ago, jihadist leaders announced the beginning of a “glorious new era in the world stories”, Which will culminate in the establishment of the Islamic“ Caliphate ”.

Now even the “official representative” of the “Islamic state” named Abu Muhammad al-Adnani is preparing his followers for heavy losses.

Cole Bunzel, a doctoral candidate in the Middle East Studies Department at Princeton University, who knows Arabic, believes that terrorists are trying to remind people of the group’s long history, that their organization will continue, as it was in the old days.

Scientist and publicist Will McKents of the Brookings Institution claims that civilians were “relatively easy targets for terrorists” in the bloody attacks in Istanbul’s Istanbul airport and in Baghdad. These attacks were designed to “calm the followers” ​​of the “IS”: they say, the grouping of forces still has a lot. However, according to McKents, "successful attacks abroad show deep concern at home." For several years, the leaders of the organization boasted the invincibility of their army, and now even Adnani admits the losses on the battlefield, even if he tries to show them in the most favorable light.

The “Islamic State” is still operating, an anonymous gunman noted, who agreed to be interviewed. But some of the followers of the group express frustration associated with errors on the part of individual field commanders.

For their part, representatives of European intelligence are already worried that the new phase of the terrorist war is in full swing. One French employee anonymously told the publication that the militants intend to use a different tactic, “much more insidious,” in large cities.

* * *


Recall that at the beginning of this week, the troops of Bashar Assad continued to advance to the east of Syria, while the bearded militants continued to retreat to the northeast of Palmyra.

Syrian army help Russian pilots. Six Tu-22М3, departing from Russia, hit the positions of the terrorist group. According to a report by the Russian Defense Ministry on July 12, six Tu-22М3 long-range bombers delivered a concentrated strike with high-explosive fragmentation ammunition at IG facilities in the east of Palmyra. As a result of the operation was destroyed field camp militants, three ammunition depots and weapons, three tank, four infantry fighting vehicles, 8 vehicles with heavy machine guns and a large number of enemy manpower.

Bearded man is something to give up.

Observed and commented on Oleg Chuvakin
- especially for topwar.ru
37 comments
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  1. Mavrikiy
    Mavrikiy 15 July 2016 05: 52
    +7
    Destroy with the root. Seeds will sprout.
    1. Teberii
      Teberii 15 July 2016 06: 04
      +9
      What happened in France is their new tactic.
      1. castle
        castle 15 July 2016 21: 53
        0
        Alas! This is not a new terrorist tactic. France already passed this in the late 50s, early 60s of the 20th century. Terror is terror. And it doesn't matter if the terrorists are from the OAS (white) or terrorists from the Blackfoot.
    2. Altona
      Altona 15 July 2016 06: 57
      +2
      Quote: Mavrikiy
      Destroy with the root. Seeds will sprout.

      ---------------------
      I have only obscene words about the bearded. Approximately such - "it is necessary to crap these", then it is generally ugly.
    3. Mikhail Krapivin
      Mikhail Krapivin 15 July 2016 09: 08
      0
      Quote: Mavrikiy
      Destroy with the root. Seeds will sprout.


      And how do you plan it for yourself? Destroy by the root in the sense? There are hundreds of millions, if not a billion, they are in all countries, from Syria to Norway, most of them are carefully undercover. Now the authorities are not particularly looking for them and do not bother them, but instead they sit quietly and do not suit Nice every day and in different countries. That completely suits both the authorities and them. And the authorities are unlikely to risk violating this status quo unless absolutely necessary. So, "not a fact, Monsieur Duke."
      1. guzik007
        guzik007 15 July 2016 09: 26
        +2
        And how do you plan this for yourself? Destroy with the root in the sense of? There are hundreds of millions
        -------------------------------------------------- ----------------
        What do we walk around the bush? Forgot Stalin's experience in relocation? Hard? Yes, cruel? Sure. But this, unfortunately, is the only way out. Only from Olya-la nda you can’t wait for it, it’s not that level, it’s too small and cowardly to stay in history.
        1. your1970
          your1970 15 July 2016 10: 51
          0
          "Why are we beating around the bush? Forgot the Stalinist experience of resettlement? Tough? Yes. Cruel? Of course. But, unfortunately, this is the only way out" -you offer France to resettle several million your Arabs (including citizens)? Where? How to technically implement this? ... Well, a number of other (including abusive) questions to you. fool fool
          1. In100gram
            In100gram 15 July 2016 12: 15
            0
            Quote: your1970
            Where? How to do it technically

            Technically simple: a suitcase-station. Where is the other question? France is a small densely populated country. 8% of the population did not send to their Magadan.
            Today in Nice, this tactic worked. Why bombs? One truck, more than 80 lives. And probably he could leave, bastard. Condolences to the dead
            1. your1970
              your1970 15 July 2016 16: 16
              0
              "Technically simple: suitcase-station." - have you tried ??? At least load / send virgin battalion ???
              In Stalin's times, this was possible only and solely due to the fact that there was already experience in mass transportation by rail, including evacuation.
              And now not a single state in the world can massively resettle at least a couple of hundred thousand, physically cannot, there is no experience of forced relocation.
              1. In100gram
                In100gram 15 July 2016 21: 28
                0
                Quote: your1970
                At least upload / send a virgin battalion ???

                Everything is possible. Would be 41 years old.
                Mobilization in the country
            2. Valga
              Valga 16 July 2016 04: 15
              0
              France has colonies in Africa. To their Sahara.
          2. Lyubopyatov
            Lyubopyatov 15 July 2016 13: 30
            +1
            With the current technical means of control (counterintelligence), it is possible to identify terrorists and prevent terrorist attacks quite effectively - there would be political will! And all displacement / internment / imprisonment / liquidation will affect far from millions, as someone fears here, but hundreds of extremists, thousands by force.
            But the pernicious West, with its prayers for human rights, sends seizure groups to the identified addresses of terrorist groups (in Belgium, Fryantsyya, etc.) and the security forces' car stands at the entrance, waiting for eight in the morning, since the law prohibits disturbing the sleep of terrorists who also "citizens". so don't be hysterical, human rights activists!
      2. ver_
        ver_ 16 July 2016 04: 31
        0
        Oh well, and to hell with them .. Pay the bounty hunters, and let them deal with them .. The current is not on our territory, because the Liberals are dispersed, if it leaks somewhere .. Let them be disposed of abroad, so as not to splurge on their guesthouse here. .
    4. Shuttle
      Shuttle 15 July 2016 11: 54
      0
      Quote: Mavrikiy
      Destroy with the root. Seeds will sprout.

      What does it mean with the root? Explain.
      If you are afraid of seeds, then you need to destroy the flowers.
      1. Basarev
        Basarev 15 July 2016 17: 16
        -1
        What is more embarrassing for me is not what is happening in France, but our participation in this conflict. More and more it becomes like a small victorious war. In foreign policy, we all make heroes of ourselves. And inside the country is full of alles.
    5. castle
      castle 15 July 2016 21: 18
      -2
      Specify who you want to "Destroy by the roots." Adherents of a certain religion ?, Parents, brothers and sisters, nephews, and who else, from this idiot? Anyone who knew him? and who, in general, are opponents of his idiology ?!
      As one philosopher said: "It would be great on Earth if there were no people on Earth."
  2. Wolka
    Wolka 15 July 2016 06: 01
    +7
    the operation of the Yankees on the transition of spirits to guerrilla warfare has been in full swing for a long time, I will not be surprised if I hear about new and new "deaths" of the odious leaders of ISIS as a result of Yankee special operations, Islamic thugs will not go anywhere, shave their muzzles, lick their wounds and will sit out for the time being until the time when they are told, the tea is not an open end ...
    1. Lyubopyatov
      Lyubopyatov 15 July 2016 13: 33
      0
      Volka, on the transition of spirits or on the transfer of spirits? .. What operations do the Yankees cause your delight? Who are you?
  3. avg-mgn
    avg-mgn 15 July 2016 06: 08
    +5
    You can play the fight against terrorism endlessly, but the victims will be endless. Today's terrorist attack in Nice confirms this. We also played in a special situation and the emergency mode, but we didn’t forbid the celebration with mass participation - the result of 80 victims and a lot of victims. Eyewitnesses say that the few police on the streets were without weapons (Russia 24). There are no words ...
    Earth rest in peace ...
    1. There are a lot of us
      There are a lot of us 15 July 2016 07: 15
      +1
      While the states of Europe are led, such as Hollande, it will be so.
    2. ver_
      ver_ 16 July 2016 04: 38
      0
      ... what matters to us is that beyond these are the problems of their governments ..
  4. Kos_kalinki9
    Kos_kalinki9 15 July 2016 06: 13
    +1
    Counter-terrorism experts from the United States believe that the attacks in Istanbul and Baghdad, with a large number of casualties, were largely a response to hostilities against the IS in Iraq and Syria.

    Well, Baghdad, yes, I understand that. Bearded people get it in Iraq, albeit with varying success. And what has Istanbul to do with it? Turkey is dearer to the barmaley than mother. And to rest and get medical treatment, everything goes there. Yes, and oil still goes there, in smaller volumes but goes. Or began to act according to the Russian proverb, "Hit your own, will strangers be afraid?" Or do the "experts" from the USA keep back or dissemble?
    1. ivselim
      ivselim 15 July 2016 06: 39
      0
      In Turkey, most likely, there is a struggle for power. The President and his opponents (probably there are), the Kurdish question, Isis and others like them ... all bicker among themselves and solve their problems. The outward manifestation of all this is terrorist attacks. IMHO
  5. Dmitry Potapov
    Dmitry Potapov 15 July 2016 06: 37
    -2
    Glory to the Russian Aerospace Forces! All the same, we wiped our nose striped!
  6. Banishing liberoids
    Banishing liberoids 15 July 2016 06: 41
    +5
    But what about Syria, Iraq, Libya from igil already completely freed? The article, so-so, is nonsense deserving only a minus due to the fact that the author did not see the harsh reality of life - the igil is still very strong, and it will take a long time to fight against it.
    1. Stirbjorn
      Stirbjorn 15 July 2016 13: 15
      +1
      That's right - Mosul and Raqqa both stood and stand - and these are the main centers of bearded men. And as for Palmyra, the news comes that bearded men do not run away from her (although even this is ridiculous - back in March they all seem to run away from there, they all can’t run away), but quite the contrary, they fit in tight.
  7. VSZMK
    VSZMK 15 July 2016 06: 56
    0
    There will be no Syria and Iraq - they will crawl to Nigeria and Bangladesh. Until this is beneficial, you know who ..
    1. ver_
      ver_ 16 July 2016 04: 43
      0
      ".. to hell with her - with Greenland" ..
  8. VadimSt
    VadimSt 15 July 2016 07: 13
    +1
    The United States hides its cockroaches in the box, - until the election of a new president.
  9. Alexander 3
    Alexander 3 15 July 2016 08: 00
    0
    More than one war has not been won by terror, but many ordinary people have been killed. How can these bitches be explained that their relatives can be there?
  10. Million
    Million 15 July 2016 08: 18
    +1
    It’s still not clear to me: why do they always scream Allah Akbar? I read the prayer - Allahu Akbar! Good deed done - Allahu Akbar!
    The attack carried out, the people of the innocent killed, too, Allah Akbar!
    1. Mikhail Krapivin
      Mikhail Krapivin 15 July 2016 09: 11
      +2
      Quote: Million
      It’s still not clear to me: why do they always scream Allah Akbar? I read the prayer - Allahu Akbar! Good deed done - Allahu Akbar!
      The attack carried out, the people of the innocent killed, too, Allah Akbar!


      People must constantly remind themselves that they are committing all these atrocities not for themselves, not out of love for atrocities, but for the sake of a higher goal. Hence "Allah Akbar" for any reason. Protective reaction of the human psyche.
  11. Seraphimamur
    Seraphimamur 15 July 2016 10: 01
    +1
    Terrorism cannot be destroyed as long as there is financial support: the USA, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, maybe I didn’t name everyone. Islamic terrorism is economically viable for Americans. at first they give money for its development by manipulating it, they intimidate unwanted countries. Then they spend taxpayer money on the fight against terrorism. Arms sales are growing in the military-industrial complex delighted. Terrorism is needed to knock money out of the budget, just like the Russian (Soviet) threat.
  12. Zefr
    Zefr 15 July 2016 10: 48
    0
    the decentralized nature of the group’s activities ensures that the threat remains “for some time”. So say some officials from the United States, as well as former employees of various American structures.
    In the sense? Is it they who give them a new installation?
  13. Lanista
    Lanista 15 July 2016 10: 49
    +1
    There are two nuances here.
    1. Suppose ISIS (ZNTR) admits military defeat, evacuates militants disguised as refugees or transfers them to an underground position. And what will the numerous “greens” do? Will they also raise their pseudopodia or will they try to fight to the end?
    2. What is more dangerous - an adversary with whom an open war can be waged, or an adversary who constantly acts stealthily?
  14. basil200
    basil200 15 July 2016 11: 38
    +1
    There will be terrorist attacks around the world and blame Russia and Assad for this. Allegedly, we drove into the ground changed the tactics of the igil from open to terrorism.
  15. Proud.
    Proud. 15 July 2016 15: 36
    0
    "... six long-range Tu-22M3 bombers inflicted a concentrated blow with high-explosive fragmentation ammunition at IS targets in the area east of Palmyra ..."
  16. slavick1969
    slavick1969 15 July 2016 18: 45
    0
    we need to constantly inflict massive blows and not only after tragedies
  17. Zefr
    Zefr 17 July 2016 17: 53
    0
    The impact of one bomber is barely enough to break a couple of sheds. And was it worth it to fly thousands of kilometers, burning tons of kerosene? And on some videos the result is not at all clear. So you can fly for years, tedding sand.