Military Review

Last article by S.P. Kapitsa. The article is too good to forget about it.

184
Last article by S.P. Kapitsa. The article is too good to forget about it.



After the collapse of science in our country, I was forced to spend a year abroad - in Cambridge, where I was born. There I was attached to Darwin College; This is part of Trinity College, of which my father was once a member. The college is mainly engaged in overseas scientists. I was given a small scholarship that supported me, and we lived in the house that my father built. It was there, thanks to a completely inexplicable coincidence of circumstances, I came across the problem of population growth.

I have previously dealt with the global problems of peace and equilibrium - the fact that made us change the point of view on the war with the advent of absolute weaponswhich can destroy all problems at once, although it is not able to solve them. But of all the global problems, in fact, the main one is the number of people who live on Earth. How many of them, where they are driven. This is a central problem in relation to everything else, while at the same time it is least solved.
It cannot be said that nobody had thought about this before. People always worried about how many of them. Plato calculated how many families should live in an ideal city, and it turned out about five thousand. Such was the visible world for Plato - the population of the policies of ancient Greece was tens of thousands of people. The rest of the world was empty - just did not exist as a real arena of action.
Strangely enough, such a limitation of interests existed even fifteen years ago, when I began to deal with the problem of population. It was not customary to discuss the problems of the demography of all mankind: just as in a decent society they do not talk about sex, so in a good scientific society they were not supposed to talk about demography. It seemed to me that it was necessary to begin with humanity as a whole, but such a subject could not even be discussed. Demographics developed from the least to the most: from the city, the country to the world as a whole. There was a demography of Moscow, a demography of England, a demography of China. How to deal with the world when scientists barely cope with areas of one country? To get to the central problem, we had to overcome a lot of what the British call conventional wisdom, that is, generally accepted dogma.

But, of course, I was not the first in this area. The great Leonard Euler, who worked in various fields of physics and mathematics, in the 18th century wrote the main equations of demography, which he still uses. And among the general public, the most famous name of another demographic founder is Thomas Malthus.

Malthus was a curious figure. He graduated from the Faculty of Theology, but he was very well mathematically prepared: he finished ninth in the Cambridge math competition. If Soviet Marxists and modern social scientists knew mathematics at the ninth grade level of a university, I would have calmed down and thought that they were sufficiently mathematically equipped. I was in the office of Malthus in Cambridge and saw Euler’s books with his pencil marks there - it is clear that he was completely proficient in the mathematical apparatus of his time.

Malthus' theory is rather slender, but it is built on the wrong premises. He assumed that the number of people grows exponentially (that is, the growth rate is the higher, the more people already live on earth, give birth and bring up children), but growth is limited by the availability of resources, such as food. Exponential growth to the complete exhaustion of resources is the dynamics that we see in most living beings. Even microbes grow in nutrient broth. But the fact is that we are not microbes.



People are not beasts

Aristotle said that the main difference between man and animal is that he wants to know. But in order to notice how much we differ from animals, there is no need to get into our heads: it is enough just to calculate how many of us are. All creatures on Earth from mouse to elephant obey dependencies: the more body weight, the fewer individuals. Little elephants, many mice. With a weight of about one hundred kilograms of us should be about hundreds of thousands. Now in Russia there are one hundred thousand wolves, one hundred thousand boars. Such species exist in balance with nature. And a man is a hundred thousand times more numerous! While biologically, we are very similar to the large monkeys, wolves or bears.

In the social sciences there are few exact numbers. Perhaps, the population of the country is the only thing that is unconditionally known. When I was a boy, I was taught in school that two billion people live on Earth. Now - seven billion. We have experienced such growth throughout the life of one generation. We can roughly say how many people lived during the birth of Christ — about a hundred million. Paleoanthropologists estimate the population of the Paleolithic people at about one hundred thousand, just as much as we expect in accordance with body weight. But since then, growth has begun: at first barely noticeable, then ever faster, explosive nowadays. Never before has humanity grown so rapidly.

Even before the war, the Scottish demographer Paul Mackendrick proposed a formula for the growth of humanity. And this growth was not exponential, but hyperbolic — very slow at the beginning and quickly accelerated at the end. According to his formula, in 2030, the number of mankind should tend to infinity, but this is an obvious absurdity: people are biologically incapable of giving birth to an infinite number of children in a finite time. More importantly, such a formula perfectly describes the growth of humanity in the past. This means that the growth rate has always been proportional not to the number of people living on earth, but to the square of that number.

Physicists and chemists know what this dependence means: it is a “second order reaction”, where the speed of the process depends not on the number of participants, but on the number of interactions between them. When something is proportional to "n-square", it is a collective phenomenon. Such, for example, is the nuclear chain reaction in an atomic bomb. If every member of the Snob community writes a comment to everyone else, then the total number of comments will just be proportional to the square of the number of participants. The square of the number of people is the number of connections between them, the measure of the complexity of the “humanity” system. The greater the complexity, the faster the growth.

No man is an island: we live and die not alone. We multiply, feed, differing little from animals, but the qualitative difference is that we exchange knowledge. We pass them by inheritance, we pass them horizontally - in universities and schools. Therefore, the dynamics of our development is different. We do not just be fruitful and multiply: we are making progress. This progress is quite difficult to measure numerically, but, for example, the production and consumption of energy can be a good criterion. And the data shows that energy consumption is also proportional to the square of the number of people, that is, the energy consumption of each person is higher, the larger the population of the Earth (as if every contemporary, from Papuan to Aleutia, shares energy with you. –Prim.).

Our development consists in knowledge - this is the main resource of humanity. Therefore, to say that our growth is limited by the depletion of resources is a very rough statement of the question. In the absence of disciplined thinking, there are a lot of all kinds of horror stories. For example, a couple of decades ago, they were seriously talking about the depletion of silver reserves, which is used to make film: allegedly in India, in Bollywood, so many films are being made that soon all the silver on earth will go into the emulsion of these films. So, perhaps, it was, but they invented a magnetic recording, which does not require silver at all. Such assessments — the fruit of speculations and voiced phrases that are intended to impress the imagination — bear only a propaganda and alarmist function.

There is enough food in the world for everyone - we discussed this issue in detail in the "Rome Club", comparing the food resources of India and Argentina. Argentina is a third smaller than India by area, but India has forty times the population. On the other hand, Argentina produces so much food that it can feed the whole world, and not only India, if it tense properly. It's not about the lack of resources, but about their distribution. Someone seemed to be joking that under socialism there would be a shortage of sand in the Sahara; This is not a question of the quantity of sand, but of its distribution. Inequality of individuals and nations has always existed, but as the processes of growth accelerate, inequality increases: balancing processes simply do not have time to work. This is a serious problem for the modern economy, but история teaches that in the past, mankind solved such problems - unevenness was leveled in such a way that the general law of development remained unchanged throughout humanity.

The hyperbolic law of human growth throughout history has demonstrated surprising stability. In medieval Europe, plague epidemics carried away up to three-quarters of the population in some countries. On the growth curve in these places, there are indeed failures, but after a century the number goes to the previous dynamics, as if nothing had happened.

The greatest shock experienced by mankind - the First and Second World Wars. If we compare the real demographic data with what the model predicts, it turns out that the total losses of humanity from two wars are about two hundred and fifty million - three times more than any estimates of historians. The population of the Earth deviated from the equilibrium value by eight percent. But then the curve for several decades steadily goes to the same path. The “global parent” proved to be stable, despite the terrible catastrophe that affected most countries of the world.



The link of times has broken

In history lessons, many schoolchildren are perplexed: why do historical periods become shorter and shorter over time? The Upper Paleolithic lasted for about a million years, and only half a million remained for the rest of human history. The Middle Ages - a thousand years, there are only five hundred. From the Upper Paleolithic to the Middle Ages, history seems to have accelerated a thousand times.

This phenomenon is well known to historians and philosophers. Historical periodization follows not astronomical time, which is uniform and independent of human history, but its own system time. Proper time follows the same dependence as energy consumption or population growth: it flows the faster, the higher the complexity of our system, that is, the more people live on Earth.

When I started this work, I didn’t assume that the periodization of history from the Paleolithic to our days follows logically from my model. If we assume that history is measured not by the revolutions of the Earth around the Sun, but by past human lives, the shortened historical periods are instantly explained. The Paleolithic lasted a million years, but the number of our ancestors was then only about one hundred thousand - it turns out that the total number of people living in the Paleolithic is about ten billion. Exactly the same number of people passed through the earth and over a thousand years of the Middle Ages (the number of humankind is several hundred million), and over one hundred and twenty-five years of modern history.

Thus, our demographic model cuts the entire history of mankind into identical (not by duration, but by content) pieces, during each of which about ten billion people lived. The most amazing thing is that such a periodization existed in history and paleontology long before the appearance of global demographic models. Nevertheless, the humanities, for all their problems with mathematics, can not be denied intuition.

Now ten billion people pass through the earth in just half a century. This means that the “historical era” has shrunk to a single generation. Not to notice this is no longer possible. Today's teenagers do not understand what it was singing thirty years ago, Alla Pugacheva: "... and you can't wait out three people at the machine gun" - what kind of machine gun? Why wait? Stalin, Lenin, Bonaparte, Nebuchadnezzar - for them this is what the grammar calls “pluperfect” - a long time past. Now it is fashionable to complain about the rupture of the connection between generations, the dying of traditions - but perhaps this is a natural consequence of the acceleration of history. If each generation lives in its own era, the legacy of previous eras may simply not be useful.



Start new

The compression of historical time has now reached its limit, it is limited to the effective generation time — about forty-five years. This means that a hyperbolic increase in the number of people cannot continue - the basic law of growth simply has to change. And it is already changing. According to the formula, today we should have about ten billion. And there are only seven of us: three billion is a considerable difference that can be measured and interpreted. A demographic transition is taking place before our very eyes - a turning point from the unrestrained growth of the population to some other way of progress.
For some reason, many people like to see signs of impending catastrophe. But the disaster here is more in the minds of people than in reality. A physicist would call this a phase transition: you put a pot of water on the fire, and for a long time nothing happens, just lonely bubbles rise. And then suddenly everything boils. So is humanity: the accumulation of internal energy is slowly going on, and then everything takes on a new look.

A good image is the rafting of a forest along mountain rivers. Many of our rivers are shallow, so they do this: they build a small dam, accumulate a certain number of logs, and then suddenly open the floodgates. And a wave runs along the river, which carries trunks - it runs faster than the flow of the river itself. The most terrible place here is the transition itself, where the smoke is a yoke, where the smooth current at the top and bottom is divided by a section of chaotic movement. This is what is happening now.

Around 1995, mankind passed through a maximum growth rate when eighty million people were born per year. Since then, growth has noticeably decreased. The demographic transition is a transition from a growth regime to a stabilization of the population at the level of no more than ten billion. Progress will naturally continue, but will proceed at a different pace and at a different level.

I think that many of the troubles that we are experiencing - and the financial crisis, and the moral crisis, and the disorder of life - this is a stressful, disequilibrium state associated with the suddenness of the onset of this transition period. In a sense, we got into the thick of it. We are used to the fact that irrepressible growth is our law of life. Our morality, social institutions, values ​​were adapted to the mode of development that was unchanged throughout history, and is now changing.

And it changes very quickly. Both statistics and a mathematical model indicate that the transition width is less than one hundred years. This is despite the fact that it occurs simultaneously in different countries. When Oswald Spengler wrote about “The Decline of Europe”, he probably had in mind the first signs of the process: the very concept of a “demographic transition” was first formulated by Landry demographer using the example of France. But now the process is affecting already less developed countries: the growth of the population of Russia has almost stopped, the population of China is stabilizing. Perhaps the prototypes of the future world should be sought in the regions that were the first to enter the area of ​​transition, for example, in Scandinavia.

It is curious that in the course of the “demographic transition” lagging countries are quickly catching up with those who embarked on this path earlier. The pioneers - France and Sweden - the process of stabilization of the population took a half century, and the peak came at the turn of the XIX and XX centuries. And for example, in Costa Rica or Sri Lanka, which passed the peak of growth rate in the eighties, the entire transition takes several decades. The later the country enters the stabilization phase, the sharper it goes. Russia in this sense is more likely to the countries of Europe - the peak of the speed of growth has remained behind us in the thirties, and therefore it can count on a softer transition scenario.

Of course, there is reason to fear this unevenness of the process in different countries, which may lead to a sharp redistribution of wealth and influence. One of the most popular horror stories is Islamization. But Islamization comes and goes, as religious systems have come and gone, more than once in history. The law of population growth did not change either the crusades or the conquests of Alexander the Great. The laws will also be immutable during the period of the demographic transition. I can not guarantee that everything will happen peacefully, but I do not think that the process will be very dramatic either. Perhaps this is just my optimism against the pessimism of others. Pessimism has always been a much more fashionable trend, but I’m rather an optimist. My friend Zhores Alferov says that there are only optimists left, because the pessimists have left.

I am often asked about recipes - they are used to asking, but I am not ready to answer. I cannot offer ready-made answers to pretend to be a prophet. I'm not a prophet, I'm just learning. History is like the weather. There is no bad weather. We live in such and such circumstances, and we must accept and understand these circumstances. It seems to me that a step towards understanding has been achieved. I do not know how these ideas will develop in the next generations; These are their problems. I did what I did: it showed how we approached the transition point, and indicated its trajectory. I can not promise you that the worst is over. But “scary” is a subjective concept.
Sergey Petrovich Kapitsa - Soviet and Russian scientist-physicist, broadcaster, editor-in-chief of the journal “In the world of science”, vice-president of the Russian Academy of Natural Sciences. Since 1973, he has consistently led the popular science TV program "The Obvious - The Incredible." The son of the Nobel Prize winner Peter Leonidovich Kapitsa.

Originator:
http://www.aum.news/nauka/1206-poslednyaya-statya-s-p-kapitsy
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  1. viktorrymar
    viktorrymar 13 July 2016 19: 01
    +22
    Souls incarnate on earth in order to gain experience and go back, and it doesn’t matter how many of us are a billion or a million, the earth is the place where souls strive for - a place of free will and action ... This is my personal opinion, food and everything else is secondary - people forgot about soul
    1. Muvka
      Muvka 13 July 2016 19: 03
      -13%
      Quote: viktorrymar
      Souls incarnate on earth in order to gain experience and go back, and it doesn’t matter how many of us are a billion or a million, the earth is the place where souls strive for - a place of free will and action ... This is my personal opinion, food and everything else is secondary - people forgot about soul

      So do not eat.
      1. Mahmut
        Mahmut 13 July 2016 20: 12
        +3
        But, if possible, the question is: what can you say about the number of souls?
        How does the number of souls relate to the number of shells (bodies)?
        Is it constant or does quantity change?


        The soul is one for all, everything else is only its reflection in the bodies. When billions of dewdrops reflect sunlight each in its own way, and each dewdrop thinks about its originality and uniqueness until it dries. But the sun does not care how many dews reflect its light and what they think about.
        1. Gall_st
          Gall_st 14 July 2016 04: 55
          0
          The soul is one for all, everything else is only its reflection in the bodies

          God, the highest mind is one for all, and people are the embodiment of his mind, soul. It is in every person at birth that a spark is introduced, a particle of spirituality, which must develop to a certain level (established by the supreme creator), in order to transfer to a different qualitative level of development. For some, this will turn out to be a successful incarnation; for someone, there will be another attempt in the next birth ...
          the earth is the place where souls strive for - a place of free will and action ...

          I doubt the desire, otherwise there would not be so many suicides on earth. The earth is the place of its exile, where the soul goes through school and universities, where its core is forged, tempered and improved. It's my opinion. Sorry for the pathetics.
          1. Penzyac
            Penzyac 16 July 2016 17: 52
            0
            Quote: Gall_St
            The soul is one for all, everything else is only its reflection in the bodies

            God, the highest mind is one for all, and people are the embodiment of his mind, soul. It is in every person at birth that a spark is introduced, a particle of spirituality, which must develop to a certain level (established by the supreme creator) ...

            I could not resist the remark. I am embarrassed to ask: who created the creator? If he was always, then what prevented him from creating everything that is available to us and is not yet available exactly when it was created, why for so long, and maybe quickly created, and is something being created now? Even the universe available to us for observation, according to official science, is not infinite in space or in time, supposedly at first there was a big explosion, and then there will be a slow death, but what really does anyone know? As the hero of Bonionis said in the famous movie: - some believe that there is a god, others believe that there is no god, and both of them are not provable ...
            How long is humanity? And how much religion and how much science? Finally, how much time all this still remains, do we already know more or much more remains to learn? ...
            Questions ..., questions ...
            1. gridasov
              gridasov 16 July 2016 18: 18
              0
              Everything has a dimension! Therefore, admitting the idea that our Creator also has a reasonable precedence, we can and are able to expand the boundaries of our perception. But if we believe that there is more reasonable and perfect, then why not let in the thought that we do not know everything and a lot. So it is necessary with Faith in the soul to subordinate the unfamiliar and unknown to Faith that it is justified by the logic and intuition of perception. At least!
      2. Penzyac
        Penzyac 16 July 2016 17: 26
        +1
        Quote: Muvka
        Quote: viktorrymar
        Souls incarnate on earth in order to gain experience and go back, and it doesn’t matter how many of us are a billion or a million, the earth is the place where souls strive for - a place of free will and action ... This is my personal opinion, food and everything else is secondary - people forgot about soul

        So do not eat.

        The consumption of gasoline is not the main function of the car, but the inevitably necessary condition for its functioning, just as food for the Man is not a goal, but only a means, although, most often, pleasant for him ...
        Otherwise, this animal consumption ...
        1. Astrey
          Astrey 16 July 2016 17: 48
          +1
          Quote: PENZYAC
          Otherwise, this animal consumption ...


          Unfortunately, the majority of the world's population is not able to list the basic human values, respectively - it is in a consumer state relative to humanity. Those. a certain society (of consumers) exists, but it is not Humanity. It is precisely consumption that has become the basis of relations among the population, and only it is most easily counted.

          So, there are many people, but you will not find a person during the day with fire. (
    2. Mowgli
      Mowgli 13 July 2016 19: 08
      +3
      Souls incarnate on earth in order to gain experience and go back, and it doesn’t matter how many of us are a billion or a million ... This is my personal opinion


      Interesting opinion.
      But, if possible, the question is: what can you say about the number of souls?
      How does the number of souls relate to the number of shells (bodies)?
      Is it constant or does quantity change?
      1. Dr. Bormental
        Dr. Bormental 13 July 2016 19: 21
        +16
        Anecdote to the topic, there is a meeting in the State Duma. The deputies who are doing what .. here the priest makes his way to the stage and says -You, they say, those in power, snickering, would think better of their souls .. Then one of the deputies wakes up and says -that is, the right proposal, a shower of 100-150 for personal use, none of us would be hurt smile
      2. The comment was deleted.
      3. Alex777
        Alex777 13 July 2016 20: 18
        +3
        Quote: Mowgli
        Souls incarnate on earth in order to gain experience and go back, and it doesn’t matter how many of us are a billion or a million ... This is my personal opinion


        Interesting opinion.
        But, if possible, the question is: what can you say about the number of souls?
        How does the number of souls relate to the number of shells (bodies)?
        Is it constant or does quantity change?


        A colleague expressed this as his opinion.
        Apparently, to insure against criticism. smile
        I would call it the axiom of existence.
        For experience, the Creator sends souls to Earth.
        He has no problems with bodies. hi
        1. Mowgli
          Mowgli 13 July 2016 20: 36
          +1
          He has no problems with bodies


          I'm not talking about the body. It’s clear with them.
          They are material, made from improvised materials (clay, ribs, self-propagation).
          I'm talking about the number of souls.
          Probably, this is a slip of the tongue and it is necessary to read "he has problems with souls no "? Right?

          UPD It seems that according to the comments the rank from the Russian Orthodox Church went ...
    3. Andrey Yuryevich
      Andrey Yuryevich 13 July 2016 19: 14
      +28
      I adored S.P. Kapitsa's show "the obvious-improbable" ... oh, childhood ...
      1. Khariton
        Khariton 13 July 2016 20: 03
        +17
        Quote: Andrey Yurievich
        I adored SPKapitsa's show "the obvious-improbable".

        Loved her too ...! "And experience, the son of difficult mistakes and the genius of paradoxes friend .." In the beginning, the screen saver was in the transmission! An incomparable transfer, and how many newspapers, magazines, different circles for children, young people developing their intelligence were! Therefore, we were the first in space, etc. ... Now values ​​are being substituted, but you can't take a lie We are on the state, we don't really hope We work with children ourselves, directly and free of charge! soldier
        1. Mordvin 3
          Mordvin 3 13 July 2016 21: 22
          +2
          Quote: Chariton
          Quote: Andrey Yurievich
          I adored SPKapitsa's show "the obvious-improbable".
          Loved her too ...! "

          On Saturday, almost crying
          The whole Kanatchikova cottage,
          I was torn to the TV ... laughing
        2. CONTROL
          CONTROL 14 July 2016 12: 04
          +1
          Quote: Chariton
          Quote: Andrey Yurievich
          I adored SPKapitsa's show "the obvious-improbable".

          Loved her too ...! "And experience, the son of difficult mistakes and the genius of paradoxes friend .." In the beginning, the screen saver was in transmission!

          ... and an intentionally missing line: "... and chance, God the inventor!"
          Then, however, returned!
      2. gavrosh.ru
        gavrosh.ru 14 July 2016 00: 06
        +5
        if only then the Internet would have been taken down by the leading respected forum philosophers hi
      3. clinch63
        clinch63 16 July 2016 13: 55
        0
        There is a version that the full text of A.S. Pushkin should be like this:
        About how many wonderful discoveries
        Prepare the spirit of enlightenment
        And Experience, son of difficult mistakes,
        And Genius, paradoxes friend,
        And Case, god inventor.
        They decided not to remember God and the chance of inventions in the popular program.
    4. sir_obs
      sir_obs 13 July 2016 20: 01
      +2
      On an empty stomach, you can only think about daily bread.
      Another thing is that you do not need to make food from a cult. But then again, someone like that.
      1. CONTROL
        CONTROL 14 July 2016 12: 05
        +1
        Quote: sir_obs
        On an empty stomach, you can only think about daily bread.
        Another thing is that you do not need to make food from a cult. But then again, someone like that.

        ... A well-fed belly to learning is deaf!
    5. Vadim237
      Vadim237 13 July 2016 20: 11
      -7
      Do not eat or drink - others will do it for you - what is the problem.
    6. Vadim237
      Vadim237 13 July 2016 20: 12
      -2
      So to say - share a dry ration with the starving.
  2. Dr. Bormental
    Dr. Bormental 13 July 2016 19: 04
    -20%
    Well, what is it for? Some kind of mathematical and philosophical opus on the number of people on the planet .. I thought something interesting ((((
    1. The comment was deleted.
    2. The comment was deleted.
    3. dzvero
      dzvero 13 July 2016 20: 14
      +8
      At first it seemed boring to me too, but in the end I thought about it ... Why is the 'jump' associated with 10 billion individuals? 10 lards is about three times the length of our genome. Maybe there is an 'enumeration' of changes and 10 ^ 10 is the optimal number for a 'phase transition'? Or something different? There must be some explanation ...
      1. Dr. Bormental
        Dr. Bormental 13 July 2016 21: 18
        +4
        Well, mathematicians, physicists are minus me .. technocrats))) I understand that Kapitsa is a diamond, but I'm a doctor, I have my own diamonds))
        1. Dym71
          Dym71 13 July 2016 21: 37
          +4
          Quote: Dr. Bormental
          Well, mathematicians, physicists and me minus .. technocrats)))


          You are wrong doc, the techies just did not understand the article, because it was written for the humanities, you just missed the "icing on the cake" wink - "The most amazing thing is that such a periodization existed in history and paleontology long before the emergence of global demographic models. Still, the humanities, with all their problems with mathematics, cannot be denied intuition!"
          You will try to read it again after this phrase with your intuition turned on, don't you think that the idea is very similar to the theory of the development of the universe before the "big bang"? - the term should not be taken literally! wink
          1. ICT
            ICT 14 July 2016 07: 24
            +1
            Quote: Dym71
            You’re wrong, the techies just didn’t understand the article,


            stopped half
        2. zennon
          zennon 13 July 2016 22: 57
          +2
          Quote: Dr. Bormental
          I understand that Kapitsa is a diamond,

          Come on! What a diamond! .. His dad was a genius, and on his son, nature had a good rest. The item is empty.
          I cannot offer ready-made answers to pose as a prophet. I am not a prophet, I am only learning.

          And what did he actually write? Have we come to the line of numbers? Yes, that’s understandable! It seems that Einstein wrote that with such a consumption of resources we will need another planet in 50 years.
          In the physics and technology laboratory, where he was trying to teach students, they cut out a page of sheet A4 from boredom so that they got a frame. They put it on the table and looked at it through it, as if he was on TV. This is about the quality of his teaching. memory of the pope and his last name.
          1. Outsider V.
            Outsider V. 16 July 2016 14: 48
            +1
            > ... Einstein also wrote that with such a consumption of resources

            References to Einstein in the demography are ridiculous. Is he in this genius luminary too? The article Kapitsa mentioned more serious figures - from Malthus to members of the Club of Rome. However, I’m not a specialist in demography, I don’t presume to evaluate the article itself.

            > Empty Human

            Still a man, not a man. And, possibly, a person. Usually Ksyusha Sobchak and Khakamada on TV call everyone "little men".

            > The empty man who parasitized all his life in the memory of the Pope and his last name

            And what was parasitism expressed in? And is he so empty?
        3. Bort radist
          Bort radist 14 July 2016 02: 55
          +5
          Quote: Dr. Bormental
          but I'm a doctor, I have my own diamonds))

          Kidney stones and gall bladders)) Joke. smile
        4. Mavrikiy
          Mavrikiy 14 July 2016 05: 16
          0
          Quote: Dr. Bormental
          Well, mathematicians, physicists are minus me .. technocrats))) I understand that Kapitsa is a diamond, but I'm a doctor, I have my own diamonds))

          Do you have diamonds? Drag here, introduce mathematicians, physicists ... technocrats. Or all the same, not so diamonds ....
      2. The comment was deleted.
      3. aksakal
        aksakal 13 July 2016 22: 12
        +17
        Quote: dzvero
        At first it seemed boring to me too, but in the end I thought about it ... Why is the 'jump' associated with 10 billion individuals? 10 lards is about three times the length of our genome. Maybe there is an 'enumeration' of changes and 10 ^ 10 is the optimal number for a 'phase transition'? Or something different? There must be some explanation

        - you are the first here who didn’t just mumble something like "wow, what a philosophy!" (it's no offense to them, just if they don't need it, then they don't need it))), but tried to make sense of the article.
        For me, the article is interesting because the great scientist tried to explain the harsh processes that we observe now and what will happen to us as a result of all this. And we really see the acceleration of history, sharp changes right before our eyes, for example, the destruction of the institution of the family right before our eyes. This institution of the family has existed for centuries, and here, right before our eyes, instead of mom and dad, "parent # 1 and parent # 2", "children should be raised by professional parents, there is nothing for amateurs to do this just on the basis that they are their children. , gave birth, upbringing is too complicated a process to entrust this to amateurs, "and so on, and so on. On the site, the majority, when observing such phenomena, immediately begin to see someone's evil will, to PERSONALIZE someone's fault in this phenomenon. Kapitsa tried to see in this not someone's specific evil will (or the collective will of the Baruchs-Rothschilds-Rockefellers), namely an objective process due to objective reasons, namely the cause of the phase transition, designated in the article as "demographic transition". Well, physicists have long noticed that during phase transitions with changing substances, things happen that under normal conditions do not happen to them and cannot happen. By analogy with this, things also happen to humanity that we may not really like and which we attribute to the evil will of some very powerful person. After all, we have a stereotype in our heads that objective things happen to inanimate substances, and in a human environment everything can happen only by human will, because the environment is human, which, of course, is not entirely true. It is enough to look at the flow of cars in dynamics, in dynamics to see how traffic jams appear - and any physicist will see that the liquid in the pipe behaves in the same way! But cars are driven by people, and people are not water molecules, but intelligent beings! So no, come on ...
        Right or wrong Kapitsa - time will tell. In any case, many thanks for the article, it was very interesting to read.
        1. Paranoid50
          Paranoid50 14 July 2016 00: 19
          +4
          Quote: aksakal
          and people are not water molecules, but intelligent creatures!

          Dear Aksakal, and if so: "a human being is a reasonable aggregate of water molecules." hi
          1. gridasov
            gridasov 14 July 2016 00: 24
            +4
            One person is a person, but crowds obey the same laws and rules as hydro-gas dynamic flows. By the way, plasma is also completely subject to these rules. Therefore, the time has come to consider processes and dynamics, and not just particular ones.
          2. Civilian62
            Civilian62 14 July 2016 14: 39
            +1
            In general, you are right, not water, but water-fat solutions.
        2. Civilian62
          Civilian62 14 July 2016 14: 36
          +3
          Sorry, but what is great? What scientific achievements does he have? Do not confuse the popular and the great.
          1. aksakal
            aksakal 14 July 2016 21: 07
            +1
            Quote: Civilian62
            Sorry, but what is great? What scientific achievements does he have? Do not confuse the popular and the great.

            you need to know such people. In fact, the Nobel Prize winner of those times when the Americans did not lower this award below the plinth. Stabilization of the pendulum in the upper vertical position with chaotic shocks - this must be worked hard to detect, justify and prove. It’s hard for me even now to imagine - you raised the pendulum up, and you make random fluctuations on the pendulum’s sleep ... And the pendulum stands in its highest position ... There are not many Nobel Prize winners in the USSR, so this is a great physicist.
            1. zennon
              zennon 15 July 2016 17: 15
              0
              Quote: aksakal
              you need to know such people.

              Exactly !!! You do not confuse the great physicist Peter with his mediocre son, Sergei ...
        3. Pavel Koltunov
          Pavel Koltunov 16 July 2016 13: 04
          +1
          long noticed that during phase transitions


          Not only physicists noticed ... but also materialist philosophers and other mass researchers of homo sapiens, outlining the stages of development of human society by formations.
          Phase transitions in the material world = revolutions in human society.
          The question is 10 billion. It is debatable who calculated it. I think the figure is not so important, the main increase (decline) in the population begins in any land with the availability of appropriate conditions.
          1. gridasov
            gridasov 16 July 2016 13: 16
            +1
            If physicists have noticed phase transitions, as separate directions in the development of processes. then it is necessary to consider the transitional stage of such transformations itself. But can modern mathematics justify such phenomena? All that modern mathematics can do is to measure certain mathematical sequences, and then in their uncertainty. At the same time, some new properties of numbers allow one algorithmic process to be compared with another. Moreover, imagine that modern mathematics is able to see and compare in binary logic the effects of positive (numerator) and negative (denominator) subjective perceptions. The new number properties allow comparisons to be carried out as multipolar interactions. Ie immediately compare the formula with the participation of several individual dimensions of mathematical sequences. That is, if we have two parts of the comparison, then it is possible to enter a lot into the same formula without parameters of the parameters of such inputs. And to receive not a single particular solution (as it is now), but to see their algorithms, which means that you can always select a separate particular solution for analysis in the process of its development.
      4. Orionvit
        Orionvit 13 July 2016 23: 04
        0
        There must be some explanation ...
        There is an explanation. I'm even more than sure about it. Only we will never know it, because real knowledge about the foundations of the universe, about the purpose of man in this world, about the greatness of the soul, about the physical and mathematical laws of this world, about real history, is hidden from us. And deliberately. This is what the church has been doing for centuries, and the special services and special institutes are still doing this. And why should people know about the secrets of the universe, let them be a dull herd, it's easier to manage. Why is there so much secrecy in our world? How many interesting documents shedding light on various events are kept in the secret archives of the special services. How much knowledge, for example, has been accumulated over the centuries in the Vatican library, in which no one is allowed. And they will never be allowed, because this will be the end of Christianity, and the Vatican knows this. In general, someone knows perfectly well what is happening in this world, but they will not tell humanity, but will continue to be led by the nose with the help of false religions and "scientific" theories.
        1. Pavel Koltunov
          Pavel Koltunov 16 July 2016 13: 09
          0
          knowledge about the foundations of the universe, about the destiny of man in this world, about the greatness of the soul, about the physical and mathematical laws of this world, about real history, are hidden from us.

          Yeah, tell "you" everything and there will be no need to live.)))
        2. Penzyac
          Penzyac 16 July 2016 18: 23
          0
          Quote: Orionvit
          There must be some explanation ...
          There is an explanation. I'm even more than sure about it. Only we will never know it, because real knowledge about the foundations of the universe, about the purpose of man in this world, about the greatness of the soul, about the physical and mathematical laws of this world, about real history, is hidden from us. And deliberately. This is what the church has been doing for centuries, and the special services and special institutes are still doing this. And why should people know about the secrets of the universe, let them be a dull herd, it's easier to manage. Why is there so much secrecy in our world? How many interesting documents shedding light on various events are kept in the secret archives of the special services. How much knowledge, for example, has been accumulated over the centuries in the Vatican library, in which no one is allowed. And they will never be allowed, because this will be the end of Christianity, and the Vatican knows this. In general, someone knows perfectly well what is happening in this world, but they will not tell humanity, but will continue to be led by the nose with the help of false religions and "scientific" theories.

          All of you who are listed only think that they know something and that others, in their opinion, are supposedly not supposed to know others, in fact no one knows the whole truth. Mankind will always strive to know all truth, but it will never be able to fully know it, otherwise it will be the end of everything, since there will simply be nothing to strive for ...
          But, and all attempts to hide knowledge are also futile, everything secret, sooner or later, always becomes apparent ...
      5. dauria
        dauria 13 July 2016 23: 32
        +4
        Or something different? There must be some explanation ...


        Don't bother with your head. The article contains only hints of mathematics, there is no formula itself. Neither before the phase transition nor after. And any physicist will say that in this place you have to "glue" two different formulas. By the way, the speed X squared in the article (and this is the derivative) assumes a function X in the cube. (and not hyperbole, as in the article)

        And as for explanations, try to explain the experience described in "Science and Life" somewhere in the 70s. The barn, food and water in abundance, a flock of mice multiplied and multiplied and suddenly stopped. Although everything is complete. Yes, they not only stopped, but began to die out without sores - they just did not want to interbreed.

        And the theory itself "the more people, the faster the rate of progress" seems to be correct, but also questionable. Sine and cosine, Heron's formula - BC. Then a thousand years of silence and from the same point the continuation of the development of mathematics in the form of differential-integral calculus, etc. Why the hell are you stuck for a thousand years?

        About the length of the genome, half a century ago, in the village of 3-5 children, in the city of 1-2. And the genome?
        1. gridasov
          gridasov 14 July 2016 00: 07
          +4
          In order for knowledge to meet the needs of reality and contribute to the existence of mankind, there must be a reciprocal relationship. While human needs were satisfied by the potential of using the Earth's resources, then there seemed to be enough knowledge, but as soon as the prerequisites for tension appear, the need for this new knowledge also arises. Therefore, the modern conditions for the existence and development of human civilization are more like a labyrinth. It seems that we have achieved something, but we cannot understand where we are and where we are moving. This is where new knowledge appears. But on the one hand, they appear, but on the other, they must be so important and fundamental that they could not stop the machine or the mechanism of human existence that has been spun in work, but must correctly orient the rotation and the movement of this "machine" in general. That is why I am talking about the pre-fundamental meaning of what will serve as the basis for such a new path of development. And this is a new property of Number, which will form the basis for constructing mathematical analysis of complex and highly dynamic processes with the so-called. large information and data arrays and their streams. And now I'm just sure that I will look like an idiot talking about all this, but when the time comes, this is exactly what will become that straw that will allow, for a start, at least to see the reality of the world, and not its illusion of its perception. And Plato knew this property of NUMBER! The question will remain what did not allow him to say everything openly? ... Why was everything so veiled that it remained a mystery for so long? And why did not a person see the obvious and simple?
          1. uskrabut
            uskrabut 14 July 2016 11: 49
            0
            The reason may be the influence of the "powerful of this world", they are inherent in the imposition of their divine image, ie. without their influence, nothing on earth can happen (now the same thing). And then there is some kind of Plato, some kind of law - disorder. Plato just had the sense not to substitute.
            1. gridasov
              gridasov 14 July 2016 12: 00
              +1
              And this cannot be ignored. Every person must have the ability to correctly assess threats and dangers to life.
        2. gridasov
          gridasov 14 July 2016 10: 11
          +3
          Any complex, if someone understands what it is, can be analyzed not on formulas, but on "copying" the space of interactions by number. Then the number can express not only itself, but also functions of other key parameters of space - this is a vector and potential. Therefore, the example given fully corresponds to the fact that the system is in a relatively favorable state. It seems so to us. In fact, and in its potential it becomes unviable. This is not vitality and is manifested in the fact that it is absorbed by the environment, which is more highly potential in the literal sense of the word. The same thing happens with a person. Place it in a favorable but very limited space of opportunity. And this will be the highest measure of torture sophistication.
      6. gladcu2
        gladcu2 14 July 2016 00: 08
        +4
        dzvero

        I didn’t get it. What phase transition was discussed?

        Mathematical models must always be approached with a degree of criticism. To describe the process often refer to conventions. Accepting such an exception, the model can produce a false result, which however can look beautiful.

        And more.

        Fundamental science is systematized knowledge. The development of fundamental science can absorb the planet's resource. But there is hope that by this time mankind will be moral and competent in order to stop the process of suicide in time.

        The definition of truth is development. Under capitalism, a lot of lies. So far, processes have not improved, such as they were under the USSR. Those. while there is no progress, there is no need to worry about suicide processes. The false system of capitalism works for us.
        1. gridasov
          gridasov 14 July 2016 00: 21
          +2
          It is worth talking about a new definition, which will look like "the rate of growth of the fundamental problems of mankind." Capitalism is not just deceitful, it is merciless to any manifestation of not only opposition, but the rudiments of such individualized thoughts, not to mention deeds. But! fundamental questions of the fight against ideological opponents seem to have been solved by them and they are able to lead the entire world community into chaos, believing that the pace of recovery will be higher for them than for others. However, this is only part of the problem. Real and fundamental questions of real physical survival arose. And these are energy issues. Now there is not a single intelligible and justified type or technology for obtaining one of any types of energy, so that it would be possible not only to talk about long-term forecasts, but also to talk about development in general. Therefore, demography and energy are "two sides of the same coin". And this problem cannot be solved with modern technologies. It is necessary to start everything from scratch, but at the same time on the foundation of existing knowledge and world order.
          1. gladcu2
            gladcu2 14 July 2016 00: 32
            +2
            gridasov

            It’s hard to reason.

            In order to deal with fundamental problems, they should at least be classified. But the problem is not in them. The problem is the development of fundamental science. This development has no boundaries, and therefore it is the path to suicide.

            Capitalism is tenacious, because it is not based on ideology, but pragmatism. Capitalism impedes the development of fundamental science, since this science is difficult to evaluate financially.

            Applied science can be evaluated, and fundamental science is not profitable from the point of view of financial capital.
            1. gridasov
              gridasov 14 July 2016 11: 12
              +2
              Fundamental science solves and is able to solve fundamental problems.
              Suicide is the inability of an individual to measure the ways of solving the problems that have arisen with the potential of the imagination and, as a consequence, the possibilities of solving "problems" of which the individual is capable. Therefore, fundamental knowledge makes it possible to expand the space of human interaction with their environment. It's like math. The introduction of one parameter of composite in the analysis allows you to increase the capacity of variances in such ratios that a person has not yet invented. Imagine that we are using nine numbers for a numerical analysis language. And at the same time, we consider it permissible to talk about infinities as mathematical sequences built on these only nine numbers. But if you knew, and the MAYA Indians knew, that according to the properties of the interactions of numbers, like a nine-number row, you can build a row of thirteen numbers. Then excuse me, how does infinity on nine numbers differ from thirteen. I hope everyone understood correctly that not thirteen numbers, but nine plus four completely new numbers, with their own individual properties. So there you go! If you could (and you cannot), calculate the number of possible variations in a system combination built on nine numbers, then all the processes occurring in this world, from the most basic and fundamental particles of our world to the macro level, invest in this possibility. We humans live in a world built on nine numbers. Of course it's figurative. But there is a world built on extended series of numbers, not the numbers themselves, but those foundations that can be analyzed by them. This means that these worlds in their potential differ from ours. They have a higher density and widening of the boundaries of interactions. In them, the eventuality is deeper and more capacious. And the person is now on the verge of transition to a new level of the state of those physical and informational events that are associated with him. Is it really not visible and not felt?
            2. gridasov
              gridasov 14 July 2016 11: 32
              +1
              So I will continue a bit. Not the infinities themselves built on nine numbers or others with a large number differ from each other, but what is hidden in these sequences. This is where the entire level of development of scientists is hidden, who are not able to transform these series of numbers into a system of sequences of number algorithms, nor even see them, nor understand that such quantitative linear algorithmic sequences are better written not linearly, but radially. And these are not Barankin's fantasies. These are real numbers and their constructions. This is the foundation for dealing with large number sequences from which "local information spaces" can be constructed. Therefore, "smart people" are encouraged to simply behave tactfully, and not seek offensive language.
        2. Cube123
          Cube123 14 July 2016 08: 43
          +6
          Quote: gladcu2
          dzvero
          I didn’t get it. What phase transition was discussed?


          And from this article it is impossible to "cut it in" smile
          To do this, you need to read him and not only his books. In short, it is necessary to consider this work in the paradigm of synergetics. Where, by the way, this work belongs to the classic for many years. But in practice, the indication that population growth is described not by an exponential, but by a power law, translates the problem into the category of processes studied by the theory of disasters, the theory of stability of dynamic processes, and the theory of deterministic chaos. This is where the theory of phase transitions manifests itself, when, roughly speaking, one additional grain of sand leads to the shedding of a large embankment. Those. A small, seemingly insignificant reason leads to disastrous in scale consequences.
          1. aksakal
            aksakal 14 July 2016 09: 53
            +4
            Quote: Cube123
            To do this, you need to read him and not only his books. In short, it is necessary to consider this work in the paradigm of synergetics

            - good I am glad that there are scholars on the site who know what, on what scientific paradigm is based. And Kapitsa was one of the co-authors of this paradigm.
            Quote: Cube123
            one additional grain of sand leads to the shedding of a large embankment.

            - to be more precise, this is the theory of self-organized criticality, authors Buck and Sneppen. The error is small, considering that all these theories differ little from each other laughing The basic paradigms - namely, the synergetics you mentioned (auth. Haken) and the Theory of dissipative systems (the author is a Belgian scientist of Russian origin I. Prigogine) are practically no different, they are the same thing, but they are called differently, which confuse. Do you see copyright ambitions laughing
            1. Cube123
              Cube123 14 July 2016 12: 12
              +3
              Quote: aksakal

              Do you see copyright ambitions laughing

              I think that the main thing is not the author's ambitions. Science is too young. The concepts and the mathematical apparatus were not settled. When it "bronzes", then there will be clear, verified formulations from school textbooks. bully

              And with regard to "self-organized criticality" - this was just one of the simple illustrative examples. Another practical example can be cited from economics: If there is a successfully working bowling alley in a small town, then opening a second one there will most likely lead to bankruptcy of both. There is not enough food for two. smile I think this is closer to the topic of the article. It may turn out that exceeding a certain threshold in numbers leads to disaster. This may be a lack of resources, a violation of the ecological balance, a general epidemic with open borders (epidemics spread faster with a high population density), the long-term consequences of an unreasonable genetic modification (the goal is good - to provide a growing population with cheap food), a global war for resources, territory .. There are many options. This is an interesting theory. Learning by model, when learning in practice is too expensive or too dangerous.
              1. aksakal
                aksakal 14 July 2016 21: 02
                +2
                Quote: Cube123
                I think that the main thing is not the author's ambitions. Science is too young. The concepts and the mathematical apparatus were not settled. When it "bronzes", then there will be clear, verified formulations from school textbooks.

                - so be it, I will not argue.
                Quote: Cube123
                And with regard to "self-organized criticality" - this was just one of the simple visual examples

                - This is precisely the theory, and it has its own range of problems, namely, the tendency of many systems to catastrophic behavior. There are many such systems - accumulations of snow on a hillside, stock market panics with a collapse in prices, the same seismic, explosions in the sun, etc.
                A theory of determinate chaos, which is close to it, studies a slightly different one - the chaotic behavior of systems. Chaos is a hidden, unobservable order, very similar not to random random behavior, but having regularities. Fluctuations in stock prices combines the chaotic behavior of these stock prices and catastrophic from time to time.
                Quote: Cube123
                If a small town has a successful bowling alley, then opening a second one there is likely to lead to bankruptcy of both. The feed base for two is not enough.
                - Not quite right, or rather, completely wrong. Two bowling alleys in a too narrow market will increase the severity of their competition to a level that is called critical and which is just studying the theory of self-organized criticality. At this critical level, there is already a very small reason for a catastrophe to happen. Remember the proverb about a straw that broke the back of a camel? Well, that's from there, people without scientists have long noticed this self-organized criticality. So, at this critical level of competition, one of the bowling alleys needs a little mess, and that's it, and the city will very quickly have one bowling alley again. Both will not collapse, it only happens in our imagination, which is often mistaken.
                Let me give you a similar example - in one city two companies competing for publishing telephone directories competed. Competition has reached unprecedented sharpness, a small town ... And one of the publishers took an extraordinary step - he published his guide a little smaller. And people bought two directories, which did not suit the competitors - the fight was going to death. So, when one directory is smaller, people put it on top, and once on top, they use it more often, and others from other cities see this directory more often. In general, due to such a trifle that served as a straw for the poor fellow-camel's back, as the size of the handbooks, one publication crashed, although its content was no worse than the competitor's handbook.
                1. aksakal
                  aksakal 14 July 2016 21: 16
                  +1
                  Quote: aksakal
                  once from above, it is used more often, and others, from other cities, see this particular guide more often. In general, due to such a trifle that served as a straw for the poor fellow-camel's back, as the size of the handbooks, one publication crashed, although its content was no worse than the competitor's handbook.

                  - and yes, by the way, I run the risk of getting minuses, but I’ll say that the USSR and the USA fell into just such a situation, raised the conflict to a critical level, when a small reason could cause a catastrophe of one of the superstates. And this tiny, but so disastrous for one of the superstates was only one person, one mediocrity, weak and stupid am Usually a person is too small to plunge into a catastrophe a huge and very powerful community of people, but in this case "the camel was so heavily loaded, well, so much that only one straw thrown on top of this camel broke his back."
                  For those who are young, I highly recommend studying this science - the theory of self-organized criticality, definitely will not be superfluous.
                  1. Cube123
                    Cube123 15 July 2016 07: 20
                    +2
                    I cannot agree with your version of the destruction of the USSR. In my opinion, the problem is not the "straw". The problem is in the control system built in the USSR. This is the system of absolute power of the Politburo. As long as the members of the Politburo were young and active, the State could develop and be governed. As they got older, the control system began to deteriorate. This was used by the "ill-keepers". In fact, this is a superbly executed special operation. One of the first cases of an effectively conducted hybrid war.
                    And the population simply found itself in the position of an army devoid of a commander-in-chief. An army like that ALWAYS loses. If you are interested in the technology of this war, I highly recommend the book by Anatoly Utkin - "Treason of the Secretary General. Flight from Europe".
                2. Cube123
                  Cube123 14 July 2016 21: 54
                  +1
                  Quote: aksakal
                  Quote: Cube123
                  And with regard to "self-organized criticality" - this was just one of the simple visual examples

                  - This is precisely the theory, and it has its own range of problems, namely, the tendency of many systems to catastrophic behavior. There are many such systems - accumulations of snow on a hillside, stock market panics with a collapse in prices, the same seismic, explosions in the sun, etc.
                  A theory of determinate chaos, which is close to it, studies a slightly different one - the chaotic behavior of systems. Chaos is a hidden, unobservable order, very similar not to random random behavior, but having regularities. Fluctuations in stock prices combines the chaotic behavior of these stock prices and catastrophic from time to time.

                  Honestly, for me, these theories are only part of a more general direction - synergetics. All this includes its methodology - the study of complex nonlinear self-organizing systems. Here, besides the problems you have listed, there are also questions of the origin of life, the study of the nature and one-sided direction of time, the irreversibility of many physical processes, biological systems, medical diagnostics, the management of states and their interaction among themselves, and a bunch of other directions. All this is combined by close mathematics and methodology, which describes and allows us to study the processes occurring there. Diagnosis of the same chaos is reduced only to the study of a set of Lyapunov exponents describing a dynamical system. But this is used not only in the diagnosis of chaos, but also in the theory of catastrophes and, in principle, in the study of any dynamical systems of high dimensions.
                  And the theories that you have listed, in my opinion, are only different projections of the same subject. As a look at the crystal from different angles will give a slightly different picture, but each of them is an image of the same crystal.
                  With regard to stocks, there is a slightly different situation. Any exchange is an open system. Those. money and shares can be entered and withdrawn at any time. Therefore, not only are there no conservation laws, but the system itself is in many ways different at different times. In my opinion, game theory is more appropriate there. Although, the author of the book "Trading Chaos" (Bill Williams) disagrees with me repeat
                  1. aksakal
                    aksakal 15 July 2016 23: 24
                    +1
                    Quote: Cube123
                    Honestly, for me, these theories are only part of a more general direction - synergetics.
                    - could be so. By the way, they did not mention yet another, but the most interesting of all these subsections of synergetics - the theory of self-organizing systems.
                    Quote: Cube123
                    With regard to stocks, there is a slightly different situation. Any exchange is an open system. Those. money and shares can be entered and withdrawn at any time. Therefore, not only are there no conservation laws, but the system itself is in many ways different at different times. In my opinion, game theory is more appropriate there. Although, the author of the book "Trading Chaos" (Bill Williams) disagrees with me

                    - the same situation, and absolutely. Synergetics arose precisely because synergistic effects, including the effects of system complexity, their self-organization, the ability of systems to evolve and develop can only occur in open systems, systems that exchange matter, information and energy with the environment. And exchanges (by the way, you yourself claim this) are open systems, so exchanges are just in the field of synergetic interests. Game theory is an applied descriptive technology, that is, it does not reveal the essence of this exchange, but simply helps to successfully play on it. Game theory does not explain why the exchange is such, for whatever reason, but simply helps to develop the most optimal game strategy. By the way, game theory is more suitable for politics than for exchanges (for example, the same zero-sum game strategy).
                    1. Cube123
                      Cube123 17 July 2016 10: 41
                      +1
                      Quote: aksakal

                      Quote: Cube123
                      With regard to stocks, there is a slightly different situation. Any exchange is an open system. Those. money and shares can be entered and withdrawn at any time. Therefore, not only are there no conservation laws, but the system itself is in many ways different at different times. In my opinion, game theory is more appropriate there. Although, the author of the book "Trading Chaos" (Bill Williams) disagrees with me

                      - the same situation, and absolutely. Synergetics arose precisely because synergistic effects, including the effects of system complexity, their self-organization, the ability of systems to evolve and develop can only occur in open systems, systems that exchange matter, information and energy with the environment. And exchanges (by the way, you yourself claim this) are open systems, so exchanges are just in the field of synergetic interests. Game theory is an applied descriptive technology, that is, it does not reveal the essence of this exchange, but simply helps to successfully play on it. Game theory does not explain why the exchange is such, for whatever reason, but simply helps to develop the most optimal game strategy. By the way, game theory is more suitable for politics than for exchanges (for example, the same zero-sum game strategy).

                      I agree with that. When I wrote my consideration, I had in mind only that synergetics (in its current state) is not able to offer a winning strategy for guaranteed earnings on the exchange. The exchange is, after all, a competitive struggle and closer to sports competitions. But to understand the processes occurring on the exchange, there is no more effective way than studying synergetics, in my opinion. At least it helps me wink

                      And with regard to the constant complication of systems, this is not entirely true. In synergetics, the effect of suppression of weak modes by strong ones is known. Those. under certain conditions, a complex system begins to behave more simply than its components. This is due to the reduction in the number of degrees of freedom. ("self-organization" in your interpretation. But, in my opinion, the general direction of this effect is wider.) And this is what allows you to analyze truly complex systems. "Theory of channels and jokers". And that is why the purely stochastic system, which is the exchange, behaves quite predictably most of the time.
    4. Cube123
      Cube123 13 July 2016 21: 54
      +5
      Quote: Dr. Bormental
      Well, what is it for? Some kind of mathematical and philosophical opus on the number of people on the planet .. I thought something interesting ((((


      It's just that this article is a rehash of S.P. Kapitsa's book. And the concise format of the article leads to the absence of "chewing" on many fundamental things. Hence the misunderstanding. Try to read the book http://baguzin.ru/wp/?p=3767
      It is becoming clear both the acceleration of the frequency of crisis phenomena and the connection with the constant "increase in the degree" of tension in the world. And this already has a direct connection with the topic of the site.
  3. Kudrevkn
    Kudrevkn 13 July 2016 19: 08
    +12
    "Pessimists say:" Phew this brandy, it smells of bedbugs! "And optimists oppose them - they answer:" May comrades pessimists? These bugs smell of cognac! "(Anecdote from Sergei Petrovich Kapitsa.) Only once did I happen to see this great scientist and patriot of Russia - at a student ball in Moscow, at MEPhI or MIPT! Simple, accessible, not arrogant and very modest PERSON !!!!
  4. chunga-changa
    chunga-changa 13 July 2016 19: 10
    +2
    S.P. Kapitsa, as always, is magnificent.
    1. hirurg
      hirurg 13 July 2016 20: 13
      0
      After the collapse of science in our country, I was forced to spend a year abroad - in Cambridge, where I was born.
      I do not understand something. About the collapse of science or the collapse of the country?
      I had to ... And, I know the pundits who were where, but they stayed!
      On the other hand, Argentina produces so many food products that it can feed the whole world, and not just India, if it strains properly. It is not a lack of resources, but their distribution.
      Oops, and maybe we strain and distribute.
      One of the most popular horror stories is Islamization. But Islamization comes and goes, as more than once in history religious systems have come and gone.
      Horror talk? I am specifically about Islamization, and not about traditional Islam.
      From this whole philosophical article, I had an obsessive feeling of the need to share, work hard and share. Because the population is growing on earth.
      I guess I'm not from his audience. I feel that somewhere na ... t, and where - I do not understand.
      Although he was born in the USSR and watched his programs.
      1. Rivares
        Rivares 13 July 2016 21: 26
        0
        There is enough food for everyone in the world - we discussed this issue in detail at the Club of Rome

        Who are "we? Are not representatives of the golden billion))
        1. Cube123
          Cube123 13 July 2016 22: 18
          +6
          Quote: Rivares
          There is enough food for everyone in the world - we discussed this issue in detail at the Club of Rome

          Who are "we? Are not representatives of the golden billion))


          It doesn’t matter who is discussing. The main thing is that fears of a lack of food and resources are at the core of Western ideology. The propaganda of homosexuality, transsexuals, drug addiction, contraception, narcissism and selfishness is based on one goal - by any possible means to deprive the overwhelming majority of the world's population.
          1. uskrabut
            uskrabut 14 July 2016 11: 58
            0
            I completely agree with you, dear. Iron Lady Margaret believed that a population of 50 million was enough for Russia.
            1. VadimK
              VadimK 14 July 2016 17: 33
              0
              She corrected the translator, who said about 50 million, and repeated - 15!
  5. Atlant-1164
    Atlant-1164 13 July 2016 19: 15
    +2
    for me, this is the smartest person who accompanied me on TV, all my childhood and youth .. I remembered this phrase in his broadcast.


    Oh, how many wonderful discoveries to us
    Prepare an enlightened spirit,
    And the experience of the son of errors difficult,
    And genius, the paradoxes friend
    1. Bramb
      Bramb 13 July 2016 19: 52
      +11
      This is not his phrase.
      The author is A.S. Pushkin. Read at your leisure: the smartest person! )))
      1. Altona
        Altona 13 July 2016 20: 26
        +4
        Quote: Bramb
        The author is A.S. Pushkin. Read at your leisure: the smartest person! )))

        ----------------------
        For some reason, talented poets manage to leave enormous literary baggage in 4 complete or incomplete dozens of their short lives, in which, in addition to good poems, there is a lot of useful information. I'm talking about Pushkin and Vysotsky. And pseudo-literators such as Boris Akunin or Mikhail Weller very vulgarly distort the well-known historical events with the average quality of their works themselves.
        1. Mowgli
          Mowgli 13 July 2016 20: 42
          +3
          like Boris Akunin or Mikhail Weller


          Who are all these people? (with)
      2. The comment was deleted.
      3. masiya
        masiya 13 July 2016 20: 46
        0
        The author is Pushkin only in the USSR it was the motto of the program ... which millions watched, and now ... ???
    2. Altona
      Altona 13 July 2016 20: 11
      +6
      Quote: Atlant-1164
      Oh, how many wonderful discoveries to us
      Prepare an enlightened spirit,
      And the experience of the son of errors difficult,
      And genius, the paradoxes friend

      ----------------------------------------
      And by chance, God is an inventor ... This phrase from Pushkin's poem is generally omitted in the epigraph to the transmission. As I understand it, for not the cleverest ideological reasons. Here there is "chance", and "god", and the restless "inventor", always getting confused under the feet of the royal authorities. The article is generally interesting. One of Kapitsa's last programs was a program about history, where he said that history is a science for all mankind, it is such a complex puzzle. And there is no separate history of Russia, America, Europe, or any separate country. There is a general history, and if different historians write their own history, they will simply mislead descendants. A general scientific approach to history is needed. But we already have ideology everywhere, in spite of any science.
      1. uskrabut
        uskrabut 14 July 2016 12: 01
        +1
        GOOD! Either the Black Sea is dug up, then America is discovered long before Columbus. laughing
    3. Atlant-1164
      Atlant-1164 13 July 2016 21: 37
      +4
      judging by the cons .. dark people on the site rule. however, as in life.
      1. Orionvit
        Orionvit 14 July 2016 18: 08
        0
        I don't know if dark people rule on the site. But judging by the minuses, so many comrades have come to believe in "fundamental" science, which, in their opinion, has already comprehended all the secrets of the universe, and is capable of solving all the problems of mankind. They probably did not realize that all academies are in the service of those in power, and it does not matter what kind of power it is, secret or overt. At the mention of the "Roman club" (where there are no random people by definition), I realized that Kapitsa is not any friend, not only of Russia, but of the rest of humanity. He would also have recalled the "Trilateral Commission" and the "Bilderber Club", where these issues are also regularly discussed. Now it is clear why the article is about nothing, pours from empty to empty, and distorts the facts. In place of the "all-knowing" minus players, I would reflect on the fact that the same "Roman club", themselves and their loved ones, has long been written off from the balance of mankind. It's about 15 million Margaret Thatcher.
    4. Rust0626
      Rust0626 14 July 2016 07: 10
      +2
      And case, god inventor
  6. Banishing liberoids
    Banishing liberoids 13 July 2016 19: 15
    +1
    Science has not been able to derive an absolutely accurate formula for calculating the number of people on the planet, and therefore they use a banal population census.
    1. V.ic
      V.ic 13 July 2016 19: 30
      +1
      Quote: Exorcist Liberoids
      commonplaceеSue

      Probably it’s also not trivialЕsmiling. But the trouble is: I don’t know what the first means and I probably will never know about the second!
      1. Banishing liberoids
        Banishing liberoids 13 July 2016 19: 41
        -1
        V.ik-take heart, Victor, for it is a mystery with seven seals, and besides, it is covered in darkness. crying No. stop
  7. Riv
    Riv 13 July 2016 19: 30
    -5
    Some kind of heresy. Why is she on topvar?
    1. Dr. Bormental
      Dr. Bormental 13 July 2016 19: 57
      -1
      Quote: Riv
      Some kind of heresy. Why is she on topvar?

      No, well, no one belittles Kapitsa, the article is competent, kind of interesting for demographers and philosophers, but here it is out of place, I agree
      1. Bramb
        Bramb 13 July 2016 20: 01
        +7
        I do not agree with this.
        An article is appropriate, because overpopulation is very often a source of war. More precisely. lack of resources due to overpopulation.
        The topic is very interesting, the article is not very. Or cut half.
      2. Altona
        Altona 13 July 2016 20: 21
        +4
        Quote: Dr. Bormental
        No, well, no one belittles Kapitsa, the article is competent, kind of interesting for demographers and philosophers, but here it is out of place, I agree

        ------------------
        But do wars not affect demography, migration flows and the population in general? Two small warriors in Ukraine and in Syria displaced about 5 million people, killed about 500 thousand, and about a million people took part in the hostilities (with rotation). And you say, the article is out of place.
        1. gamer
          gamer 13 July 2016 20: 38
          -2
          Wow Wow wow! Where do these numbers come from?
          1. Aleksey_K
            Aleksey_K 13 July 2016 21: 47
            +3
            Quote: igorek
            Wow Wow wow! Where do these numbers come from?

            Whence such words: "wow-wah-wah!", Reminiscent of the barking of one four-legged with a tail!
            1. Rivares
              Rivares 13 July 2016 21: 59
              0
              Quote: Алексей_К
              Whence such words: "wow-wah-wah!", Reminiscent of the barking of one four-legged with a tail!

              Wow is the name of the letter of the Hebrew alphabet. Now the Semites will attack you)))
        2. Dr. Bormental
          Dr. Bormental 13 July 2016 21: 31
          0
          Well, what conclusions did you personally draw from this article? Something new? That the world is not static, that it moves constantly? If the article is for schoolchildren, then it’s out of place, but if it’s for me, then it’s out of place ... with all these utterances with quotation I have eaten up to my ears .. with all due respect, as they say. I have 2 higher educations, I'm not a boy from the bench, and with this phrasing I can’t get through hi
          1. aksakal
            aksakal 13 July 2016 23: 39
            +4
            Quote: Dr. Bormental
            I have 2 higher educations

            Sorry, for some reason this impression is not created.
            I described my findings with the post above. In short, the current processes taking place with humanity, some of which we do not like at all, have objective reasons. Namely, with a system that grows according to a hyperbolic law, things can happen quite objectively that lead to its qualitative change, especially at the final stage of the process, at the very top of the graph. With the two higher ones, is it easy to imagine what a hyperbole is? High school mathematics ... So, this graph has a slow, gently sloping start, then the graph takes steeper and in the end goes almost vertically. So population growth is on such a schedule. So, we are almost on the vertical part of the schedule, which is really impossible - to give birth to an infinite number of children in a short time. So, at this stage, a system that grows according to a hyperbolic law must go into a different state, at a different qualitative level. Of course, this transition is accompanied by crisis phenomena, increased stress throughout the system, and more. We are here on the site and discuss these phenomena, however, we personify them, thinking that this is all the result of the evil will of a particular person. So the article is in place, just to see it is not given to everyone.
        3. The comment was deleted.
    2. The comment was deleted.
    3. Strezhevchanin
      Strezhevchanin 13 July 2016 20: 03
      +3
      Quote: Riv
      Some kind of heresy. Why is she on topvar?

      Globalization! Here you need to ask a question: who stimulates population growth on the planet, who creates hordes of consumers, and the more of them there are, the better gesheft, huh?
      The greed of some gives rise to a worldwide evolutionary impasse, and the worst thing is that it suits them.
      1. Dr. Bormental
        Dr. Bormental 13 July 2016 20: 11
        0
        Quote: Strezhevchanin
        and who stimulates population growth on the planet

        Chinese? request laughing
        1. Aleksey_K
          Aleksey_K 13 July 2016 21: 50
          -1
          Quote: Dr. Bormental
          Quote: Strezhevchanin
          and who stimulates population growth on the planet

          Chinese? request laughing

          And how do the Chinese stimulate population growth on the planet? Fuck other people's wives or what?
          1. V.ic
            V.ic 14 July 2016 06: 29
            -2
            Quote: Алексей_К
            Fuck other people's wives or what?

            You choose expressions! Well, that's how they "fuck"! The impudent have an expression to make love, in Russian it will be "making love".
            1. CONTROL
              CONTROL 14 July 2016 12: 34
              +1
              Quote: V.ic
              Quote: Алексей_К
              Fuck other people's wives or what?

              You choose expressions! Well, that's how they "fuck"! The impudent have an expression to make love, in Russian it will be "making love".

              "Making love" is fucking!
              Love is not "made", but simply love! ...
              ----------
              а to make love - this translates as "to make love" ... English is an insidious language!
      2. The comment was deleted.
        1. Khariton
          Khariton 13 July 2016 20: 17
          -3
          Quote: Dr. Bormental
          Quote: Strezhevchanin
          and who stimulates population growth on the planet

          Chinese? request laughing

          So Russia will soon begin to play off with the Chinese ...
          1. Altona
            Altona 13 July 2016 20: 29
            -2
            Quote: Chariton
            So Russia will soon begin to play off with the Chinese ...

            -----------------------
            What for? They are quite normal people. Today by the way I saw them, they came to the authorities.
            1. Khariton
              Khariton 13 July 2016 21: 25
              0
              Quote: Altona
              Quote: Chariton
              So Russia will soon begin to play off with the Chinese ...

              -----------------------
              What for? They are quite normal people. Today by the way I saw them, they came to the authorities.

              Everyone was smiling, probably ... Am I right?
    4. Verdun
      Verdun 13 July 2016 20: 06
      +6
      Quote: Riv
      Some kind of heresy. Why is she on topvar?

      That's why he is Sergey Petrovich Kapitsa, and we ... on Topvar. What seems to heresy to a limited mind is a genuine science for such people and a reason for deep analysis. I always admired the intellectual power of both Sergei Petrovich and his father.
      I am not a prophet, I am only learning.
      An attempt to analyze, search for the causes of wars, the development of science, political and economic crises in the very development of mankind ... Alas, it is no longer there, and of those living in Russia it is unlikely anyone will undertake to continue the work of this person. The work is colossal, incomprehensible to many. Especially in conditions
      the collapse of science in our country
      .
      1. aksakal
        aksakal 13 July 2016 23: 21
        0
        Quote: Verdun
        Alas, he is no longer there, and of those living in Russia it is unlikely anyone will undertake to continue the work of this person.

        - No, they will ... laughing With the words "wow, what a philosophy! Eh, in short, demography is the very thing, well, in short! Eh!" and continue laughing
    5. Monos
      Monos 13 July 2016 21: 20
      +12
      Quote: Riv
      Some kind of heresy. Why is she on topvar?


      Heresy? Why are you doing this? What do you think is orthodox? And how do you determine the criteria for the suitability of the material for HE?

      You were given the opportunity to familiarize yourself with one of the ontological causes of the current problems, and you immediately reject the opportunity to think about it. It’s sad.

      We are no longer used to listening to the opinions of smart people.
      1. gladcu2
        gladcu2 14 July 2016 00: 23
        0
        Monos

        You are right.

        And it is possible to determine the death of the planet in another way.

        Overpopulation can be controlled, for example, China.

        But the development of fundamental science is likely to kill the planet. Since the boundaries of knowledge do not exist and it is not known when to stop.

        In this regard, cap. a system that does not provide the growth power of fundamental science is probably a good way out for a person.
        1. CONTROL
          CONTROL 14 July 2016 12: 56
          +1
          Quote: gladcu2
          But the development of fundamental science is likely to kill the planet. Since the boundaries of knowledge do not exist and it is not known when to stop.

          Exist! These boundaries are laid by the biological nature of man, and any religion - confirmation of this.
          Synergetics is an attempt (alas. Just an attempt ...) to break beyond the limits imposed on humanity by its biological nature and scientific method knowledge of the world.
          And besides the scientific method, there are others ... In his last works, Kapitsa is trying - realizing the limitations of the scientific method - to jump "above his head."
          -------------
          To discuss the merits and demerits of Kapitsa's article (a worthy and outstanding person, of course) - fragmentary in the above text - is somehow "inappropriate" ...
          The conclusions from this article are mostly philosophical and religious, except for particular mathematical laws, of course.
          -------------
          Does anyone think that the conversion of many prominent scholars in their declining years to religion is senile senility? ...
          ... especially in the light of the registered facts of "miracles" they performed in contradiction to fundamental science (regeneration of limbs; local control of the weather; "violation of the law of conservation of matter and energy ...)
          ... And no one tries to explain them "scientifically": - these phenomena are outside the limits of the scientific method.
          ... about which, for example, another of the great philosophers of our time wrote - Stanislav Lem!
          1. gridasov
            gridasov 14 July 2016 13: 17
            +1
            Why not try to explain? I would even say that the explanations are also very convincing, only the content of such arguments can be pronounced in a circle of people who are very tolerant to perception.
            Why do prominent scholars turn to religion? Because Faith in idols and God changes and expands to Faith in the actions or creations of God. When you believe in the Image, there is no process of development and understanding of the CREATOR's actions. When you believe in HIS ACTION, you begin to explore and develop, learning and learning the tread of the Wisdom of CREATION. The fact that a simple person is not able to understand but accepts the FAITH, the scientist must pass through the Faith that Everything was created reasonably and according to the logic of rationality, which means in laws and interconnected sequence.
  8. Vladimir61
    Vladimir61 13 July 2016 19: 32
    +1
    I read it three times ... and I didn’t taste the problem of population growth, for myself personally.
    It is understandable, worldview illiteracy! Born in London, studying at Darwin College and living in London in his own house, this is not something that will be born in a village and live more mundane problems.
    1. Bramb
      Bramb 13 July 2016 19: 54
      +1
      But the article does not explain this. The article is about nothing at all. With all my sincere respect for him as the son of a great man.
      Minus corrected, but they will bring it to us. )))
      1. Khariton
        Khariton 13 July 2016 20: 12
        -10%
        Quote: Bramb
        But the article does not explain this. The article is about nothing at all. With all my sincere respect for him as the son of a great man.

        I did not read the article bullshit, it’s immediately clear .. you're right! Just a memory of the former greatness of the USSR! What kind of people were and who their children are ... It's a shame, but nature usually rests on the children of geniuses ..
    2. CONTROL
      CONTROL 14 July 2016 12: 58
      +1
      Quote: Vladimir61
      I read it three times ... and I didn’t taste the problem of population growth, for myself personally.
      It is understandable, worldview illiteracy! Born in London, studying at Darwin College and living in London in his own house, this is not something that will be born in a village and live more mundane problems.

      ... Digging potatoes, talk about the universe! but - to myself ... To avoid!
  9. Evgeny59
    Evgeny59 13 July 2016 19: 38
    +4
    Yes, I also recall with pleasure the programs Obvious - Incredible. For me, a high school student, it was like reading a science fiction novel, great pleasure if you recall the huge shortage on the book shelves. It was always felt that the man Sergei Petrovich Kapitsa was not from the world of the ordinary, ordinary provincial town. Just thanks to him.
  10. vvnab
    vvnab 13 July 2016 19: 39
    0
    Gordon's Kapitsa with this topic



  11. Bramb
    Bramb 13 July 2016 19: 51
    +1
    At first, scientists said that the Earth can feed no more than 3 yards of people, then - no more than 5, now - no more than 10 or 15. And they began to calculate historical periods in man-hours even earlier, actually. )))
    Generally. Inaccurate data is taken and what results are unclear.
    Of course, an exhibitor is forever impossible. Of course, the distribution of food and wealth is uneven. Of course, there are engineering and scientific breakthroughs. It was clear a long time ago. About 200 or 300 years ago. What is the article about? Like, everything will be fine? )))
    1. Rivares
      Rivares 13 July 2016 21: 38
      0
      Quote: Bramb
      What is the article about? Like, everything will be fine?

      Anesthesia before future genocide. Native American on the ball 0.8% left. White 8%.
      Something no one doesn’t feed us, but there is enough food for everyone. Only space is not enough for everyone.
  12. Evgeny59
    Evgeny59 13 July 2016 19: 59
    -7
    An ordinary article by a man who left Russia a hundred years ago, with the usual Western view of our civilization, which Russia is far from, and Russia will live without these European views, which lives and will live, which is the last chance for the survival of Europeans. Good luck.
    1. Verdun
      Verdun 13 July 2016 20: 11
      +6
      Quote: Evgeny59
      Normal article of a man who left Russia a hundred years ago

      You, dear man, are ignorant. Sergey Petrovich Kapitsa lived and worked in the USSR - Russia. And his dad, Pyotr Leonidovich Kapitsa, although he graduated from Cambridge, where his son Sergei was born, also lived and worked in the USSR. These people are the true glory of our science. Not knowing this is a shame! And those who are lower on the topic consider money in the pockets of these people simply do not understand that these scientists not only earned every penny by their contribution to science, but enriched humanity immensely. However, those who do not look up from the feeder to look at the stars, explaining this is pointless.
      1. Igor V
        Igor V 14 July 2016 00: 00
        +1
        Peter Leonidovich was a student and associate of Rutherford. After returning to the Soviet Union, he took out his own laboratory, which became the basis for the Institute of Physical Problems.
    2. Altona
      Altona 14 July 2016 11: 30
      0
      Quote: Evgeny59
      An ordinary article by a man who left Russia a hundred years ago, with the usual Western view of our civilization, which Russia is far from, and Russia will live without these European views, which lives and will live, which is the last chance for the survival of Europeans. Good luck.

      -----------------------
      There is a general scientific approach to the problem. With the development of a mathematical apparatus, taking into account the ongoing processes and available facts. Some "Western" or "Russian" "views" on the problem are already ideology, but it is not some kind of scientific factor.
  13. ALABAY45
    ALABAY45 13 July 2016 20: 00
    0
    My "last article" will be about: wife, children, grandchildren, relatives, school, youth, college, work, extramarital affairs, friends, well-fed and happy pioneer childhood, lustful Komsomol youth, sports, army service, cars, travel, dogs, hunting trophies, motor boats, money (comrades, money has not been canceled yet!), grub in his youth, a snack in the 90s, gastronomic delights in the 2000s, their houses and cars for children, a bunch of planted trees and about albums with my photographs ... I just don't want to teach anyone how to live and analyze, on the eve of imminent death and, moreover, write articles about how bad everything will be ... After all, this will be my last article ?! And, I definitely won't compare Argentina and India! It will be problematic for me, in my 98 years ... wink
    1. Dr. Bormental
      Dr. Bormental 13 July 2016 20: 06
      +2
      Alabai is angry today ... smile hi
      1. Khariton
        Khariton 13 July 2016 20: 50
        -3
        Quote: Dr. Bormental
        Alabai is angry today ... smile hi

        He was just tired of everything ... I understand him perfectly! hi
    2. The comment was deleted.
  14. moskowit
    moskowit 13 July 2016 20: 00
    +4
    I deeply respect S.P. Kapitsa as a popularizer of science and a worthy person. hi
    But nonetheless...

    “... After the collapse of science in our country, I was forced to spend a year abroad - in Cambridge, where I was born. There I was attached to Darwin College; it is part of Trinity College, of which my father was once a member. I was given a small scholarship that supported me, and we lived in a house that my father had built. It was there, thanks to a completely inexplicable coincidence of circumstances, I stumbled upon the problem of population growth ... "

    You see, how glorious ... And where, excuse me, the foremost machine operator and combine operator could have gone when his collective farm or state farm was plundered and sold by "enterprising" privatizers. Where could the miner order bearer who gave out an unimaginable amount of coal to the mountain, when the mines were closed, where the officers forced to leave the army could go, where millions of people who found themselves "at a broken trough" could go and were forced to survive in the truest sense of the word ... broadcast from a cozy house with a scholarship in his pocket, which would be enough for an average Russian family for six months ... Eh, it would be better to keep quiet ...
    1. Bramb
      Bramb 13 July 2016 20: 05
      -3
      Yes, there was on the account mother-not-grieve!
      At that time, the Nobel Prize cost ten times more than now. And my father was paid sour. Plus, in the USSR, everything is ready, just click with your fingers - they will bring it even from the Moon.
      The old man lied, lied ...
  15. python2a
    python2a 13 July 2016 20: 07
    +2
    The Kapitsa family is a family of great thinkers!
  16. bubalik
    bubalik 13 July 2016 20: 20
    +3
    ,,, and I think that the most outstanding expression of Sergei Petrovich: ,, "
    If, instead of the billions spent on the military, there were millions for education and health care, there would be no room for terrorism. "
    1. Aleksey_K
      Aleksey_K 13 July 2016 22: 05
      +5
      Quote: bubalik
      ,,, and I think that the most outstanding expression of Sergei Petrovich: ,, "
      If, instead of the billions spent on the military, there were millions for education and health care, there would be no room for terrorism. "

      Not millions in education and healthcare. The Ovechkin family in the USSR had everything and direct support from the state. And the result is an armed hijacking of an aircraft with the aim of escaping from the USSR.
      And the natives of Australia never had anything, and they did not suit the terrorist acts.
      Everything is much more complicated in our human society.
      1. gridasov
        gridasov 16 July 2016 18: 06
        0
        It can be said somewhat differently, why the essence of what was said does not change. If a person did not commit and did not repeat mistakes, then his evolution would go at a completely different pace and other events determining this development. But having understood this, you come to the conclusion that humanity is the creation of a more perfect mind.
  17. iohanson
    iohanson 13 July 2016 20: 35
    +1
    Probably the world needs to learn life from the Russians. We are 150 million and the niche on the territory of Russian civilization is not crowded, this in turn provides us with a development perspective. Correctly say that Russia is a civilization of the measure.
    1. Rivares
      Rivares 13 July 2016 21: 47
      -1
      Quote: iohanson
      Probably the world needs to learn life from the Russians. We are 150 million and the niche on the territory of Russian civilization is not crowded, this in turn provides us with a development perspective.

      100 years ago there were as many of us. Thanks to the 2 great wars and the Great Revolution, as many have survived us.
      100 years ago, there were as many Chinese as we were a hundred years ago. Now there are more than a billion of them.
      And our lands begin to saw off slowly. It's time for them to instill Christianity)))
      1. Sergej1972
        Sergej1972 13 July 2016 23: 45
        0
        You compare the population of the Russian Federation in its current borders and the population of the Russian Empire. It is not correct. The population of the territory of the present Russian Federation a hundred years ago was much smaller. There were several times more Chinese and a hundred years ago than Russians.
      2. Koshak
        Koshak 14 July 2016 04: 01
        0
        Quote: Rivares
        thanks 2 great wars


        Why thank the war ??? As a result, because of, for a reason ....
        1. gridasov
          gridasov 14 July 2016 10: 33
          0
          War is always a lesson and an opportunity to save at the cost of the lives and sufferings of millions who remain. Therefore, they were and will be. Then a generation appears that in its impulse wants and seeks to live in a full sense of the joy of this life. This is cruel, but after wars there always comes a heyday of life.
  18. Atlant-1164
    Atlant-1164 13 July 2016 20: 36
    +3
    Quote: Bramb
    This is not his phrase.
    The author is A.S. Pushkin. Read at your leisure: the smartest person! )))


    I memorized this phrase in his program. I need to be a little more attentive. Dear.
  19. vano
    vano 13 July 2016 20: 46
    +3
    Bright and smart. It doesn’t matter how much he is right here, it is important that we remember this man who allowed us to touch a real analysis of nature.
  20. Comrade Miguel
    Comrade Miguel 13 July 2016 20: 46
    -1
    well said!
  21. Khariton
    Khariton 13 July 2016 20: 47
    +1
    The gang again went through "cons" ... in many! Give us admin access to see ... Who and why! Why hide this function from users? This is not good, I think, and there would be more order on the site! hi
    1. Aleksey_K
      Aleksey_K 13 July 2016 22: 18
      +4
      Quote: Chariton
      The gang again went through "cons" ... in many! Give us admin access to see ... Who and why! Why hide this function from users? This is not good, I think, and there would be more order on the site! hi

      I am not an admin or a moderator, a simple reader who found the time when this information was available. The disadvantage of this information is that a person can be vindictive and put disadvantages to his offenders. The number of minuses grew catastrophically. Many readers still band together and attack readers they don't like together. If you carefully analyze the comments of readers, you will find that many readers in groups "fight" with others. If there is a comment from a reader from the group, then after a while certain readers begin to echo it.
    2. Bekas1967
      Bekas1967 13 July 2016 23: 21
      +1
      Don’t you know?)))) I've figured it out for a long time .....
    3. CONTROL
      CONTROL 14 July 2016 13: 09
      0
      Quote: Chariton
      The gang again went through "cons" ... in many! Give us admin access to see ... Who and why! Why hide this function from users? This is not good, I think, and there would be more order on the site! hi

      I have known for a long time who is minus me (although I can find out in another way)! This group ...
      Other sites have the same story; well - there are "svidomye nezalezhniki" ...
      ... And sho? But do me need it? ... "... And then this fraer is sick to me ..." (C) (A. Severny)
  22. Ajent cho
    Ajent cho 13 July 2016 20: 54
    +2
    There is enough food for everyone in the world - we discussed this issue in detail at the Club of Rome, comparing the food resources of India and Argentina.

    I wonder if Sergey Petrovich knew that if you feed two million hungry blacks, you will get three million hungry blacks?
    1. Rivares
      Rivares 13 July 2016 21: 50
      0
      As in the song, he knows but is silent))
  23. dojjdik
    dojjdik 13 July 2016 20: 55
    0
    everything is right, to go to Cambridge and arrogantly carry a chatter much nicer than living in Uryupinsk and telling the truth
    1. Aleksey_K
      Aleksey_K 13 July 2016 22: 30
      +3
      Quote: dojjdik
      everything is right, to go to Cambridge and arrogantly carry a chatter much nicer than living in Uryupinsk and telling the truth

      He was born and studied there and this is his homeland. By birth, he is a British citizen. You do not forget your homeland, why should he forget? And at a time when Soviet science began to be destroyed, you would like S.P. Kapitsa to become a Turkish shuttle, when he has accounts and income in England, his home, and where he did a lot of scientific work.
      In addition, in Uryupinsk, the majority of the population speaks FALSE, because supported the blue United Russia.
      1. 2s1122
        2s1122 13 July 2016 22: 56
        0
        Sorry, I wanted to remove the minus, but it turned out the other way around what
      2. dojjdik
        dojjdik 15 July 2016 07: 59
        0
        that's why they began to destroy science, because all these "scientists" rushed to Cambridge and who will develop science in Uryupinsk? first you will leave an island called Moscow and look into the same Uryupinsk then you will pompously rant
    2. CONTROL
      CONTROL 14 July 2016 13: 11
      0
      Quote: dojjdik
      everything is right, to go to Cambridge and arrogantly carry a chatter much nicer than living in Uryupinsk and telling the truth

      It depends on what is the "truth" and whose "chatter" ...
  24. gridasov
    gridasov 13 July 2016 22: 19
    +1
    Humanity is an energy mass. Its quantity always changes with respect to the ability and to exist both in itself and its existence within the framework of influence on the surrounding world. Therefore, we can proceed from the converse that the more people the higher the likelihood of his death in the mass in order to maintain their existence even in some development groups. And the smaller the population of the Earth, the higher its potential and actually the intellectual abilities and capabilities of individuals to influence the entire totality of the Earth process within the framework of the existence of life in the part where this life is possible. Man himself cannot believe this because he is not able to see his place on the planet from outside.
    1. Mordvin 3
      Mordvin 3 13 July 2016 22: 54
      +2
      Comrade Gridasov. What do you propose? Limit the mass? How?
      1. gridasov
        gridasov 13 July 2016 23: 06
        +1
        Already now, one should not wait for decades, as many people will see a catastrophe of the person himself during his lifetime. The problem is that nobody taught us how to live and properly sort information in its growing volumes and contrast. Therefore, you yourself will see what happens. Always and everywhere, vitality was determined by the ability to see the real world, and not by illusion.
        1. gridasov
          gridasov 13 July 2016 23: 23
          +1
          It is important to note that in the search and solution of many energy issues and the preservation of the industrial space there is a problem that will divide humanity into contrasting categories and this will lead to even greater confrontation and, accordingly, the deaths of huge masses of people who simply forgot how to cooperate with nature. The more people, the lower its unit price. Should this virus appear indifference and indifference to one life, there will be a desire to destroy millions. There is no choice - or we will suffocate from modern technologies destroying the world, and gain new knowledge - there will be a desire to manage, rule and destroy the rest.
  25. mik6403
    mik6403 13 July 2016 23: 20
    +4
    The article is very interesting and makes many world problems and challenges look at a different angle. It’s only a pity that 2 out of 5 commenting on it did not understand what it was all about.
  26. bubalik
    bubalik 13 July 2016 23: 30
    0
    Gridasov ,,, sorry the site does not allow you to communicate directly, my opinion is that you are a smart and adequate person hi
    1. gridasov
      gridasov 13 July 2016 23: 43
      +2
      Not everyone thinks so.
    2. vadimtt
      vadimtt 14 July 2016 10: 50
      +1
      However, when trying to read and especially understand what dear Gridasov had in mind, there are major doubts about this. Nevertheless, reading these messages is quite interesting, in addition, it develops cognitive abilities. Although representatives of psychiatric science are unlikely to agree with me wassat
      1. gridasov
        gridasov 14 July 2016 11: 42
        0
        I will not argue! BUT, firstly, some complexity cuts off those who are not at all able to think at such levels. Secondly, sometimes it’s worth straining, and not make perfection of yourself. Thirdly, psychiatry is a science based on statistical data. But they are unlikely to build a model of the prerequisites of what contributed to a certain condition of the patient and analyze the development algorithms of these processes. And thirdly, it’s hardly worth switching to a personality. It is worth talking about the material of the topic under discussion and the expansion of knowledge in this area
  27. Aleksandr2012
    Aleksandr2012 14 July 2016 00: 38
    +1
    No offense, but those pearls that gridasov gives out here remind me, as a person with a physical and mathematical education, and working in a specialty in an engineering position, like crazy stuff.
    1. gridasov
      gridasov 14 July 2016 10: 52
      +1
      It is not for me to judge you, but the world is not always the same as we see it through the prism of our own perception. Your illusion that someone is wrong or is wandering, and that you are ideal in your ability to give accurate assessments of everything that you like or not is just a particularity. In your own words, you only give yourself the self-esteem that you are not able to see the world by the perception of other people. You are no longer capable of generalizing and the possibility of moving on to analysis of particularities and dynamics of process transformations. Do not jump to conclusions. Personally, I accept anyone and everyone. The main thing is that he be self-expressed and desperately sincere (of course, to the extent of tact and ethics)
    2. CONTROL
      CONTROL 14 July 2016 13: 29
      0
      Quote: Aleksandr2012
      No offense, but those pearls that gridasov gives out here remind me, as a person with a physical and mathematical education, and working in a specialty in an engineering position, like crazy stuff.

      Affects the limitations of the scientific method!
      Why am I - with the same education and almost the same (higher ...) position, but - quite adequately perceive "pearls" for myself, and do not assume psychopathology ... gridasov at least? ... (I’ll keep silent about others)
      1. gridasov
        gridasov 14 July 2016 13: 43
        0
        My psychopathology is based on the fact that, on the one hand, I understand the futility of giving an explanation of what humanity for thousands of years could not notice in the properties of number. And I'm already using the method. On the other hand, I am still trying to "force" the perspicacious mind of other people to think and show them a method whereby keeping the particulars of each individual function of number in its constancy, one can show the dynamics of the interactions of these particulars as algorithms. And this is not in the linearity of the recording, but in the radial recording. At the same time, I will note that I myself did not believe in myself for decades, and that this is happening to me. But something still makes me do some communication. Believe me, I always condemn myself as a person for "imposing" my own reasoning, but on the other hand, someone in me and through me is looking for people who are able to understand this. But the fact that I'm not normal is still a fact for myself.
    3. Dym71
      Dym71 14 July 2016 19: 08
      +1
      Quote: Aleksandr2012
      No offense, but the pearls that gridasov produces here


      Well, what are you, how can it be so about gridasov! gridasov is our everything on the site! Find the nickname "evil partisan" on VO and ask about this unique person - he will explain everything to you in detail in a nutshell!
      ps gridasov is difficult to understand of course, but possible! There would be a desire:
      - "From the point of view of banal erudition, each individual who critically motivates abstraction cannot ignore the criteria of utopian subjectivism, conceptually interpreting the generally accepted defanizing polarizers, therefore the consensus reached by the dialectical material classification of universal motivations in the paraogmatic connections of predicates solves the problem of improving the cinematic and planetary hypotheses. aspects. "
      See how simple it is? Only the first step towards mutual understanding is needed! laughing
  28. 15Bars
    15Bars 14 July 2016 00: 43
    0
    well now everything is clear, opened our eyes to the essence of things
  29. zav
    zav 14 July 2016 01: 58
    0
    An article that does not need to do anything special with demography. That, as if according to a certain formula, it had already settled down at a certain mark, and no attempts by mankind would be able to move it either up or down (on a historical scale, of course). However, it is one thing to draw formulas in Cambridge and quite another to fight Islamization in Uryupinsk. That is, an article in no way related to life. If there were no problems with demography, then no one would be interested in the article. But there are problems. The capitalist structure of the world economy and, as a result, the uncontrolled growth of the population are the two main problems. Here it is necessary to take emergency measures, and not rely on mathematics, as a panacea.
  30. Bort radist
    Bort radist 14 July 2016 03: 23
    +4
    Somewhere, I read that the amount of biomass on earth is strictly constant. In flesh to thousandths. In a simple way, when a pair of elephants is born, a thousand mice break away from their place of residence and die in the seas and rivers found along their way. The world order is subject to certain laws, not written by people. Of course in the article everything is scientifically and informatively ...... But do not forget that mathematics only reflects reality, and does not create. Almost all mathematical proofs are based on assumptions - "let's say that A does not equal B ....." remove these assumptions and mathematical proofs will collapse like a house of cards " (Shalva Amonashvili) Einstein also spoke about this. Upon reaching the speed of light, many laws of the material world cease to apply, i.e. become inexplicable from the point of view of material physics. Being part of the biosphere, mankind is trying to live according to its own laws, which were invented in the course of development and which differ from the natural ones. Therefore, to study, try to understand what awaits us, of course, is necessary. Remembering that the world is developing according to its own, unwritten laws, and it is unlikely that we will be able to manage these processes.
    1. gridasov
      gridasov 14 July 2016 10: 45
      +1
      Only not the biomass itself in its such definition, but the potential that it carries in its consistent state with the potential of all other components. Then, internal transformations in this bioamass appear, which we neglect in assessing the reality of the processes. After all, it is obvious that humanity is a part of the entire set of components of the world and nature. Moreover, the processes within humanity itself are always consistent with the processes outside. And this balance can always be analyzed when and what in general terms can happen. And now, confrontations and confrontations within humanity are very closely related to external disasters and phenomena. In the highest potential of such contradictions, that "phase transition" will occur when serious problems associated with the existence of mankind at the next moment will become an impetus for its new development. There is no reason for us to disappear, if only because we are "half way" to what we are capable of in our individual potential of expression.
      1. Bort radist
        Bort radist 14 July 2016 12: 08
        0
        Quote: gridasov
        Just not the biomass itself

        Not exactly in kilograms.
        1. gridasov
          gridasov 14 July 2016 12: 19
          0
          Well this is not true. In kilo is a static definition. After all, there is a dynamic process of transformations and transformations of various substances. Therefore, we can only talk about the potential of biomass associated with various physical conditions of the planet. Indeed, in the desert, for example, the conversion of biomass occurs according to its own algorithms, and in the tropics according to its own. And in general, everything in the world is in motion and transformation, which means that any static definitions are implausible in a certain level of analysis of their condition.
  31. Evgeny59
    Evgeny59 14 July 2016 05: 47
    0
    My post is off topic: Monument to the dead journalists in Tobolsk will be the first and only in Russia.
    http://www.vsluh.ru/news/society/308559
  32. Wolka
    Wolka 14 July 2016 05: 53
    +1
    scientific philosophy is a good thing, an article useful and provoking discussion, Kapitsa’s attempt to calculate the demographic history of mankind is mathematically highly controversial, especially considering Einstein’s theory of relativity, it all depends on the chosen reference frame ...
    1. gridasov
      gridasov 14 July 2016 10: 17
      +1
      It is useless to prove. But the question rests on the methods of such a mathematical justification and what a person can choose as a basic tool for such an analysis. Kapitsa lived in the time of the not so active influence of an array of information on consciousness. Then he could not imagine the current level of development. Therefore, he is the fruit of his time of development. Current times allow us to talk about new fundamental concepts and methods for analyzing capacious processes
      1. CONTROL
        CONTROL 14 July 2016 13: 21
        0
        Quote: gridasov
        It is useless to prove. But the question rests on the methods of such a mathematical justification and what a person can choose as a basic tool for such an analysis.

        As a tool for local application - the method is suitable! But to generalize to ... "Inappropriate!"
  33. grandfather Mih
    grandfather Mih 14 July 2016 08: 25
    +1
    Quote: Dr. Bormental
    Well, mathematicians, physicists are minus me .. technocrats))) I understand that Kapitsa is a diamond, but I'm a doctor, I have my own diamonds))
    Intimidating, doctor! Anecdote on the topic: "Doctor, I wake up in the morning, nothing hurts." - "Yes, you have sclerosis, my friend." The article, as usual for Kapitsa, is brilliant. Looked through the comments. Labels are out of place. For instance. A list and order of documents standing there is usually attached in front of the shelf with documents. Some had to explain in the language they understood: lay down or even lay down. Well, do not hang a label. It is customary for "opponents" who summarize the meaning in a commentary to first respond to the generalization, and then step by step. Correct if I'm wrong. And yes, doctor. You won't wait!
    1. CONTROL
      CONTROL 14 July 2016 13: 17
      0
      Quote: grandfather Mih
      A list and order of documents standing there is usually attached to a shelf with documents. Some had to explain in a language they could understand: to put or even to lay down. Well, do not hang up a shortcut.

      +!
      It depends on what to put and what to lay on ... But at the same time - and whom to hang!
  34. Prince of Pensions
    Prince of Pensions 14 July 2016 09: 40
    0
    After the collapse of science in our country, I was forced to
    Sorry for your country. Science is important. We all thank God so far
    1. gridasov
      gridasov 14 July 2016 10: 28
      0
      You apparently did not read a quote about the experience with rats. When they were placed in favorable living conditions, making it impossible to fight for this life. And the results were deplorable. So a person placed in a system of relatively favorable conditions degrades very quickly. Therefore, I very often speak of a method of expanding the capabilities of a person’s intellectual potential, which is achieved by a harmonious alternation of physical activity with intellectual labor. You can give a lot of examples that balanced conditions of existence are needed, which means that none of the conditions can be thrown out of the system. Therefore, certain hardships of life still strengthen us and make us stronger, if not kill. By the way, this last sentence was said by my nephew, about fifteen years old, who at one time was on the verge of life and death and everyone who was in the real world of our community prayed for him. So, sometimes not everything that seems to us to be RAEM is the same. This is an illusion that we invented for ourselves while in a certain state of mind.
  35. uskrabut
    uskrabut 14 July 2016 11: 06
    0
    I am impressed! The smartest man of our time! I will recommend this article to friends.
  36. Aleksandr2012
    Aleksandr2012 14 July 2016 21: 11
    0
    Quote: gridasov
    It is useless to prove. But the question rests on the methods of such a mathematical justification and what a person can choose as a basic tool for such an analysis. Kapitsa lived in the time of the not so active influence of an array of information on consciousness. Then he could not imagine the current level of development. Therefore, he is the fruit of his time of development. Current times allow us to talk about new fundamental concepts and methods for analyzing capacious processes

    1. Give specific methods in which the question rests.
    2. What new fundamental concepts do current times allow us to talk about regarding Kapitsa's lifetime?
    3. What is the analysis of capacious processes?
    1. gridasov
      gridasov 14 July 2016 22: 02
      0
      The basis of mathematical analysis is now using the function of a variable value of a number. All calculations are reduced to finding the only so-called-correct mathematically formulated solution. using this variable number function for any integration or differentiation, we can get a mathematical sequence, which essentially allows you to see or build graphs as a unit particular process. However, new tasks, such as achieving hyper speeds, achieving new performance characteristics of aircraft flight parameters, the development of the north and the depths of the ocean in terms of providing heat and electricity and livelihoods, as well as a set of tasks for the disposal of liquid radioactive waste, obtaining thermal energy with minimizing costs, efficient use wind power, new safe types of nuclear power plants and much more. which is a field of advanced science, makes you analyze and move on to higher potential physical processes. However, highly dynamic or, as it is called in hydro-gas dynamics, turbulent processes make it necessary to take into account the interconnection of many processes that are coupled and occur each according to its own algorithms and its own vectors. For instance . In order to create a highly efficient aviation turbine it is necessary to achieve such rotational speeds of the rotor when it will be possible to use the potential energy of water or other mobile or liquid substances. Then, the occurring cavitation processes on the blades or blades of the turbines can be used as a source of high temperature and pressure in the combustion chamber. Modern knowledge does not allow constructing the correct algorithms for the outflow of hydrodynamic flows and overcoming the boundaries of rotor failure, which means that this potential energy of water and other substances remains unattainable. Therefore, to build a model of an efficient engine. in which the kinetic energy of the flow and its potential energy will be used, it is necessary to be able to mathematically analyze the processes occurring both in the flow medium and simultaneously on the surface of its outflow. This is a simple model. But even it remains not subject to analysis on a function of a variable value of a number, since it is impossible to construct a mathematical model expressed as an algorithm for the development of a process both in the flow and on the surface of the outflow — simultaneously occurring, but each in itself and in consistency.
    2. gridasov
      gridasov 14 July 2016 22: 03
      +1
      If you understand this, then you can continue further. If not, then I will not waste your attention, but the "evil partisan" of patience. Oh, how he can't stand me.
      We will say that I have already given two new basic definitions — these are the properties of a number that are still not open, and therefore unclaimed, and by definition, a new basic device that allows you to use the gas-gas dynamic flow in its new quality, namely to expand use of kinetic energy and potential energy of this flow.
      Present times are characterized by an increase in the density and polarization of all events without exception. The flow of information has increased many times over. So fast-changing events in a new way need to be analyzed. If they are calculated as particular solutions, then until one solution is found, the processes will be outside the control and attention zone. Therefore, the entire totality of our time period and when the respected KAPITSA lived, is nevertheless incommensurable.
      The answer to the third question is clearly expressed in the text above. If a modern person is looking for correct or incorrect answers and solutions to problems, then the pace of life requires taking into account the entire set of events taking place, and therefore modeling and forecasting in accordance with the goals. And so that all information can be "loaded" into a single analysis process and get a set of solutions corrected by the set benchmarks in the analysis system, you just need to use this new property of NUMBER. Then the solutions will be self-evident.
      If a person creates devices and spends considerable resources of labor, time and finances on experimental refinements, then the best option would be to simulate a physical process in an energy carrier and not in iron, then the device will arise as a natural derivative of the processes in which this energy is taken from.
      1. Aleksandr2012
        Aleksandr2012 14 July 2016 23: 17
        0
        I can cling a lot, but in short: I was waiting for a specific answer, a., B., C. etc. The value of the number is constant by definition! Axiom and point !!! The value of the derivative of a nonsense number, the derivative of a variable equal to a constant number-0, is an axiom and a dot! A variable cannot have a function by definition, just like a woman has male genital organs by definition. Further, high-potential processes do not allow to build modern mathematical models ??? Physical limitations do not allow that modern science is gradually narrowing. There are no problems with a mathematical solution, from a word in general! Further, the properties of a number are fundamental, and cannot change, regardless of the fact that someone has discovered something. Grandma cannot become a grandfather.
        Everyone creates the flow of information for himself to the extent of his depravity. With the same success, one could analyze the movement of the leaves of hundreds of trees at the edge of the forest a thousand years ago.
        1. gridasov
          gridasov 15 July 2016 11: 10
          0
          I have no words! And yes, the seer sees even more, but the hearer hears!
  37. Mengad
    Mengad 14 July 2016 21: 36
    0
    Quote: aksakal
    Quote: aksakal
    once from above, it is used more often, and others, from other cities, see this particular guide more often. In general, due to such a trifle that served as a straw for the poor fellow-camel's back, as the size of the handbooks, one publication crashed, although its content was no worse than the competitor's handbook.

    - and yes, by the way, I run the risk of getting minuses, but I’ll say that the USSR and the USA fell into just such a situation, raised the conflict to a critical level, when a small reason could cause a catastrophe of one of the superstates. And this tiny, but so disastrous for one of the superstates was only one person, one mediocrity, weak and stupid am Usually a person is too small to plunge into a catastrophe a huge and very powerful community of people, but in this case "the camel was so heavily loaded, well, so much that only one straw thrown on top of this camel broke his back."
    For those who are young, I highly recommend studying this science - the theory of self-organized criticality, definitely will not be superfluous.

    Tell me pzhl? when were the missiles deployed in Turkey that reached Moscow, the capital of the USSR? Reference: PGM-19 Jupiter BRDS,
    Range: 2400 km(got to Moscow)
    Accuracy (CVO): 1,5 km
    Warhead Type: Monoblock thermonuclear W49 - 1,44 Mt
    What should the head of the USSR do in your opinion?
  38. Ajevgenij
    Ajevgenij 15 July 2016 22: 05
    0
    An interesting theory. He expanded his knowledge of demography. Generally interested in urban studies, demography is one of the parts of urban studies. And this applies to all of us. How we will live, what affects how to manage it.
  39. Shtyn dwarf
    Shtyn dwarf 15 July 2016 23: 05
    0
    I have long noticed such a thing that there is accelerated technology access for ordinary people. What a simple person can now access as a regular service was previously unthinkable. 3d printers are a vivid confirmation of this. I won’t be surprised if in 20 years anyone can create a helicopter, just by making an ordinary quadrocopter more powerful.
  40. jungler
    jungler 16 July 2016 07: 17
    0
    I applaud while standing! Thanks to the site and thanks to Kapitsa!
  41. Razvedka_Boem
    Razvedka_Boem 16 July 2016 07: 45
    0
    History is like the weather. There is no bad weather. We live in such and such circumstances, and we must accept and understand these circumstances. It seems to me that a step towards understanding has been reached. I do not know how these ideas will develop in future generations; These are their problems. I did what I did: showed how we approached the transition point, and indicated its trajectory. I can’t promise you that the worst is over. But “terrible” is a subjective concept.

    In a hundred years, our time of troubles will fit into a couple of paragraphs in textbooks ..) Something like: "The accumulated contradictions in society and the economy caused serious shocks, which changed the picture of the world that existed at that time."
  42. Jurkovs
    Jurkovs 16 July 2016 08: 36
    -2
    "After the collapse of science in our country, I was forced to spend a year abroad - in Cambridge, where I was born."
    The beginning of the article immediately distorted me. And in general, I do not like this family. The elder refused to make an atomic bomb, was afraid of messing up pens and spent all his life doing science in the kitchen. The youngest, too, was not so much engaged in science as he was a showman on TV.
    These people have never been patriots of Russia; you cannot hide Jewry in your pocket.
    1. Outsider V.
      Outsider V. 16 July 2016 14: 59
      +1
      Ek, everything is simple with you - he spent all his life doing science in the kitchen.
      Probably for kitchen physics he received:

      The Nobel Prize in physics (not "for peace", and not "for literature", this prize will be more serious),

      Twice was a laureate of the Stalin Prize.

      Twice Hero of Labor.

      Etc. etc.
  43. sinys
    sinys 18 July 2016 17: 03
    0
    I watched almost all of his programs. I listened to his program on this topic. He himself said that the world's population growth will stop around 2025 and will be about 7.5 billion but not more than 10 billion people. Enough for everyone. The progress and development of society will go a little differently. But in general, there are no prerequisites for panic. Bright memory to him.
    1. gridasov
      gridasov 18 July 2016 18: 54
      0
      What did you make? Is it really just that a person needs only food for life?
  44. sinys
    sinys 19 July 2016 09: 51
    0
    Quote: gridasov
    What did you make? Is it really just that a person needs only food for life?

    Yes, where does the food ?! There are no problems with food. The bottom line is that with an increase in the quality of life, people are less and less willing to give birth. Progress governs people's lives. The interests of civilization in energy sources. In the 20th century, most wars were for energy. In the modern world, there are already other sources of energy, atomic, solar, wind, and more. Oil at least fill up! What else to share with people, live and enjoy life. But it’s just beneficial for someone to escalate the panic and prevent people from living in peace.