The triangle is a rigid figure, therefore, in building frames, railway bridges, towers, pylons of high-voltage power lines, etc., they try to use triangular elements as much as possible. As examples of trinity (stability) we can cite the fundamental laws of dialectics (unity and struggle of opposites, mutual transfer of quantity into quality, negation of negation), matter (matter, energy, information), time (past, present, future), physical fields (electromagnetic , gravitational, quantum), signs of a revolutionary situation (crisis of the tops, bottoms do not want to live as before, a significant increase as a result of the activity of the masses). Manifestations of the triad are the beginning, middle, end; thought, will, action; body, soul, spirit; dialectic "thesis - antithesis - synthesis", etc.
Let us draw an analogy of the stability of a triangle (triad) with ensuring stability and security. History humanity gives evidence of this.
At the end of World War II, the three leaders of the most powerful world powers — the leaders of the anti-Hitler coalition, Franklin Delano Roosevelt (USA), Joseph Stalin (USSR) and Winston Leonard Spencer-Churchill (Great Britain) at the Yalta Conference in Crimea, held 4 – 11 February 1945 , made major decisions on the future division of the spheres of global influence between the victor countries and on the future world order.
By the way, the aggressor states that unleashed World War II were also united into a triad: "Rome - Berlin - Tokyo."
Further, formally, in connection with decolonization, Great Britain by the middle of 50 began to lose its power of the world power, although in 1952 it became the third in the nuclear club. There are two states left in the world - the USA and the USSR, which determined world politics, the stability and security of the world on Earth until the end of the 80 of the XX century. Unfortunately, before the collapse of the Soviet Union, a third center of power did not arise, which would participate in the world order and replace the USSR. The hegemony of one state began to lead humanity to the growing wars and military conflicts of varying intensity around the world (Iraq, Yugoslavia, Libya, Ukraine, Syria). There was no one to prevent the United States from doing whatever it pleased.
China has failed to replace the Soviet Union on the world stage, although it has achieved significant success in the economy. It was assumed that a united Europe in the form of the EU, created in 1992, and now including 28 states, would also be a counterbalance to the United States. This, alas, did not happen.
Unfortunately or fortunately, the world is arranged in such a way that the determining position of a state on the world political arena is determined primarily by the power of the armed forces, and only then by the rest. Here it is worth remembering the well-known phrase raised to the rank of a categorical imperative: “With a good word and a pistol you can achieve much more than with a good word.” From this it is necessary to proceed.
The military power of any state in modern conditions is again conditioned by a triad or a strategic triangle, that is, the presence of strategic nuclear forces (SNF), an echeloned antimissile defense (ABM), high-precision weapons (WTO).
We will conduct a comparative analysis of the mentioned forces and means available in the USA, Russia and China, as the most influential at the present stage and in a number of other states, in order to assess the balance of forces.
Modern strategic nuclear forces in the form of a nuclear triad - land-based intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) (land-based strategic nuclear forces) as part of mobile and stationary groups, ballistic missiles mounted on submarines (naval strategic nuclear forces), and strategic aviation (airborne strategic nuclear forces) - capable of delivering nuclear missile strikes (nuclear weapons) at any time of the day and hitting objects at the right point on the globe in order to inflict specified (unacceptable) damage on any state. In the future, space strategic nuclear forces may appear. Strategic nuclear forces are one of the main deterrent forces. Sometimes the possession of such weapons becomes the meaning of the state’s activities to ensure sovereignty and territorial integrity.
Currently, there are eight countries in the nuclear club. According to the chronology of the first tests, these are the USA, Russia (USSR), Great Britain, France, China, India, Pakistan, and the DPRK. Israel does not officially recognize its nuclear weapons.
The United States, Russia, and, in the near future, China possess the capabilities of the nuclear triad in full. The latter builds up nuclear capacity. According to the American edition of The Washington Free Beacon, citing US intelligence agencies, the 5 of December 2015 of China conducted a test launch of the Dongfeng-41 ICBM (DF-41) from a mobile mobile installation.
In addition, according to estimates of the International Commission on fissile materials, India may have 80 – 100 nuclear charges, Pakistan - 90 – 100. Both states have the groundwork for their buildup. Israel, in the unanimous opinion of all experts, has owned its own-developed nuclear warheads from the end of the 60's - the beginning of the 70's.
The United States and Russia have approximately equal power in the strategic nuclear forces in the modern world. Slowly but surely, China is approaching them.
Do not stand under the "Arrow"
As for the echeloned missile defense, its origins were laid during the Second World War in connection with the creation and use of ballistic (V-2) and cruise (V-1) missiles by Germany for attacking targets in England (the Tamper project). The first combat launch of the German BR in London was 8 September 1944.
Modern missile defense systems are able to detect and hit any space and air targets. Today only the United States has such capabilities. The forces and means in this direction are rapidly increasing in Israel. He has already created a three-echelon missile defense system and successfully applies it (“Cloud Pillar” is the codename of the anti-terrorist operation in the Gaza Strip, conducted on November 14 – 21, “Unbreakable Rock” is the codename of the military operation in the same place from July 7 on August 26 of August 2014).
Israel is close to creating an upper, fourth echelon with its missile defense system Arrow-3 (Strela-3). Representatives of the Israel Defense Department of the Israeli Defense Ministry and the US Missile Defense Agency 10 on December 2015 announced the launch of the first successful test of an Arrow-3 long-range missile defense system with interception of a target missile.
Four tiers will include:
1. Protection against ICBMs located outside the atmosphere is the Hetz-3 system.
2. Protection against medium-range ballistic missiles (1000 – 5500 km) and BB ICBMs that entered the atmosphere are Hetz-2.
3. Protection against short-range ballistic missiles (500 – 1000 km according to the American classification) or operational-tactical and tactical ballistic missiles (OTBR, TBR according to the Russian classification), in addition to the above, can provide the universal Patriot PAC-3 anti-missile system and the anti-missile system (PPK) "Sling of David."
4. Protection from unguided rockets, artillery shells and mortar shells at a distance from 4 to 70 kilometers, as well as to intercept airplanes, helicopters and unmanned aerial vehicles at a height of up to 10 kilometers - the tactical system "Iron Dome".
Moreover, it is planned to create the fifth missile defense line of Israel - the deployment of a laser system “Iron ray” (Iron Beam) short range.
The United States is striving hard to create a multi-tier national missile defense system. 1 November 2015 officially announced the successful conduct of complex test shooting in the area of Wake Island in the Western Pacific, designated as FTO-02 E2a. The AEGIS and THAAD missile defense systems were tested. 10 December 2015 of the year became known about the successful conduct of the first test firing with the interception of a land-based missile defense system AEGIS ASHORE, located in Hawaii.
The development of US missile defense is envisaged not only in the territory of the state itself, where two positional areas were created (the Fort Greely airbase in Alaska and Vandenberg in California), but also globally on the European part (the so-called European missile defense system), in Asia and the United States. Pacific region (South Korea, Japan, Australia).
The plans for the development of the US national missile defense system for the period up to 2025 include the creation of the third missile defense area of the continental US territory covering the industrial centers of the Atlantic coast, as well as bringing the total number of GMD missiles in the US to 56 (28 in Alaska, 14 in California and 14 on the Atlantic coast), in the future - to 100 anti-GBI.
They strive to have a missile defense system similar to the US, Russia, China, India, Japan, South Korea and some other states.
The third component of the strategic triangle under consideration is high-precision weapons. This is a system that includes a carrier and a guided munition equipped with means of aiming and end guidance, capable of hitting land and sea targets in any conditions, taking into account temporary changes, with a probability of no less than 0,5 with one shot (launch, discharge) within the affected area. In addition, precision weapons allow selective destruction of critical objects at a given point during any air defense.
With the liberation of Kuwait (“Desert Storm”, 1991), the WTO accounted for 10 percent of the total number of aircraft used, in the war against Yugoslavia (1999) - up to 40 percent, and against Iraq (2003) - up to 80 percent.
Understanding the importance and high efficiency of the WTO, 18 January 2003, 43, US President George Walker Bush, signed a directive on the concept of a fast global strike. Its essence is the development of high-precision conventional weapons of strategic use, which allow striking non-nuclear high-precision weapons against targets of any country without radioactive contamination of the terrain, and paralyze the response.
Today, only the United States has such capabilities. And in the near future it is unlikely that any state will have such a number of similar means of destruction in ordinary equipment.
The US-published results of the exercise suggest that when striking a fairly large and highly developed country with an 3500 – 4000 expenditure of a conventional WTO for four to six hours, it loses its ability to resist the aggressor and incurs unacceptable losses in the economy.
1 May 2013 in the United States passed the fourth successful tests of the X-51A Waverider hypersonic missile. They were held in the Pacific. The rocket was launched from the aircraft B-52 at an altitude of 15 200 meters, then using an accelerator rose to 18 200 meters. During the flight, which lasted six minutes, the X-51A Waverider developed speed in 5,1 Mach numbers (6100 km / h). Flying distance 426 kilometers, the rocket was destroyed.
The United States transfers part of the tasks that were previously assigned to nuclear weapons, to weapons of global range and the highest accuracy that an ordinary warhead carries. Four nuclear-powered submarines of the "Ohio" type have long been re-equipped with Tomahawks for firing. On each - on 154 cruise missiles BGM-109.
Russia and China are trying to keep up with the United States.
Starting from October 7 2015, the Russian aerospace forces have deployed cruise missiles from Kaliber-NKE surface carriers, Caliber-PLE submarines and X-101, X-555 submarines in Syria testifies to confident steps to create, modernize and combat use of the WTO. Understanding this, the administration of US President Barack Obama announced plans to spend a trillion dollars in the next one and a half decades to modernize the WTO’s arsenal.
It is making efforts to create the WTO and the People’s Liberation Army of China. 9 January 2014 of the year over the territory of the country held the first successful flight test of the "super-high-speed" spacecraft, which was named WU-14. According to American military experts who have access to test information, it is designed to launch using an intercontinental ballistic missile. After that, the ship is separated and continues to fly in planning mode at an altitude of approximately 100 kilometers from the surface of the Earth. On the way to the target, the hypersonic glider maneuvers in near-earth space at speeds almost 10 times the speed of sound, that is, approximately 11 000 kilometers per hour (according to other data, 8 to 12 Mach), and uses an airborne radar for targeting.
In the future, the situation may arise that the unification of the WTO and missile defense systems will make it possible to deliver a disarming strike by conventional means against the strategic nuclear forces of any state, and the remaining ballistic missiles and their combat units will be struck by anti-missile defense systems.
The logic of the triangular world
The strategic stability of the modern world order will be violated if at least one of the sides of the designated strategic triangle dominates or is significantly ahead of others in similar components. Today, the US superiority to Russia in the WTO and the development of the missile defense system are traced. Therefore, a further reduction of the strategic nuclear forces of both countries without considering the consideration of other components - missile defense and WTO - in favor of the United States.
The paradox is that further reduction of ballistic missiles according to treaty relations, in particular, between the Russian Federation and the United States, which do not take into account the nuclear potential of Great Britain and France, China, leads to an increase in the likelihood of a nuclear war, rather than reducing it, as we are often .
In the 80-s, when the USSR-US nuclear triad was more than 10 000 warheads in each country, subject to the agreement between the USA and the USSR on limiting missile defense systems in any scenario, the SNF caused irreparable damage (400 ammunition), which corresponded to the death of 28 percent of the population and the destruction of 76 percent of the industrial potential of the USA and the USSR, not to mention the achievement of the threshold of significant damage (10 – 40 charges).
Unilateral US withdrawal from the 1972 agreement on missile defense, a possible reduction in the threshold of deployed strategic carriers in accordance with the Treaty on Measures to Further Reduce and Limit Strategic Offensive Arms from 8 April 2010 (START III) between Russia and the United States to a thousand warheads lead to the situation when it is easier to win a nuclear war (if it can be a strategic gain), if you start first. The development of the WTO and missile defense and their combat use level off the possibilities of retaliation. The remaining ICBMs, SLBMs and their combat units can be destroyed by a deployed global echelon missile defense system, if we are talking about the possibility of using the United States triad.
A special feature of the START III Treaty is that it does not impose clear restrictions on the development of missile defense systems in Europe, but Article XIV and the unilateral statement by the President of Russia, which is an integral part of the document, imply that the United States’s qualitative and quantitative capabilities exceptional circumstances that threaten the highest interests of the Russian Federation, and is the basis for withdrawal from the contract. He also takes into account only the strategic nuclear potential of both countries, but does not apply to conventional weapons and cruise missiles, the superiority in which the United States is obvious.
Moreover, the new START Treaty allows the United States to transfer all heavy bombers (TB) to "non-nuclear". The design of the aircraft provides for the possibility of suspending up to 14 air-launched cruise missiles (ALCM) on six twin and two single front-body nodes.
China should be remembered with its triad, which did not join the treaty on the limitation of medium and shorter-range missiles between the USA and the USSR. Its 118 MRBR 1700 – 4000 kilometers range is an additional strategic potential. Probably, not without intent, geographical maps and textbooks appeared in Chinese schools, where the territory of Siberia to the Urals is designated as belonging to the Middle Kingdom.
This strategic triangle - the SNF, ABM and the WTO - should provide various technical means of reconnaissance, navigation, electronic warfare, communications based on a new technological structure: information, which is rapidly entering the growth phase.
The presence of the triad state (SNF, missile defense and the WTO) turns it into a world power, which is considered. This is an axiom of the current stage of human development.
Answering the question why the EU could not replace the USSR in the international arena, we note: it did not create a triad. France and Britain have nuclear weapons and their means of delivery, but there are no other components - missile defense and WTO. Therefore, Europe has fallen to the United States, which have a triad, and thereby in a certain way influences events in the world, using the US military-strategic potential.
Non-triad states cannot influence international politics and should join one of the sides or vertices of the current Asia-Pacific folding triangle, that is, the United States, Russia or China. The political leadership of our country, realizing this, is taking emergency steps to form a triad. Its presence will allow for an independent foreign and domestic policy, to ensure sovereignty and territorial integrity. China is doing it quickly. Other states (for example, India, Iran) are also making some efforts to create separate components and the triad as a whole.
Thus, it can be concluded that in the near future a triangle will reappear on the political arena of the world, one side of which will be Russia, and the other - China. And this is a historical fact.
Today, Turkey, Iran and even Poland declare their imperial ambitions, but they, if we accept the above view, can be confirmed only if these states have the strategic nuclear forces, missile defense and the WTO.
The presence of a triad state will ensure the stability, sustainability and security of the world. It is hardly possible to find another explanation for the exclusion of a new world war.