Military Review

Three security whales

70
It is known that one of the stable figures in nature is an equilateral (right triangle) or the so-called triad - a unity formed by three separate members (parts). The sides uniquely determine the angles of the triangle, which is not subject to deformation. Three - the minimum number of points that ensure the stability of any system.


The triangle is a rigid figure, therefore, in building frames, railway bridges, towers, pylons of high-voltage power lines, etc., they try to use triangular elements as much as possible. As examples of trinity (stability) we can cite the fundamental laws of dialectics (unity and struggle of opposites, mutual transfer of quantity into quality, negation of negation), matter (matter, energy, information), time (past, present, future), physical fields (electromagnetic , gravitational, quantum), signs of a revolutionary situation (crisis of the tops, bottoms do not want to live as before, a significant increase as a result of the activity of the masses). Manifestations of the triad are the beginning, middle, end; thought, will, action; body, soul, spirit; dialectic "thesis - antithesis - synthesis", etc.

Let us draw an analogy of the stability of a triangle (triad) with ensuring stability and security. History humanity gives evidence of this.

At the end of World War II, the three leaders of the most powerful world powers — the leaders of the anti-Hitler coalition, Franklin Delano Roosevelt (USA), Joseph Stalin (USSR) and Winston Leonard Spencer-Churchill (Great Britain) at the Yalta Conference in Crimea, held 4 – 11 February 1945 , made major decisions on the future division of the spheres of global influence between the victor countries and on the future world order.

By the way, the aggressor states that unleashed World War II were also united into a triad: "Rome - Berlin - Tokyo."

Further, formally, in connection with decolonization, Great Britain by the middle of 50 began to lose its power of the world power, although in 1952 it became the third in the nuclear club. There are two states left in the world - the USA and the USSR, which determined world politics, the stability and security of the world on Earth until the end of the 80 of the XX century. Unfortunately, before the collapse of the Soviet Union, a third center of power did not arise, which would participate in the world order and replace the USSR. The hegemony of one state began to lead humanity to the growing wars and military conflicts of varying intensity around the world (Iraq, Yugoslavia, Libya, Ukraine, Syria). There was no one to prevent the United States from doing whatever it pleased.

China has failed to replace the Soviet Union on the world stage, although it has achieved significant success in the economy. It was assumed that a united Europe in the form of the EU, created in 1992, and now including 28 states, would also be a counterbalance to the United States. This, alas, did not happen.

Why?

Unfortunately or fortunately, the world is arranged in such a way that the determining position of a state on the world political arena is determined primarily by the power of the armed forces, and only then by the rest. Here it is worth remembering the well-known phrase raised to the rank of a categorical imperative: “With a good word and a pistol you can achieve much more than with a good word.” From this it is necessary to proceed.

Three security whales


The military power of any state in modern conditions is again conditioned by a triad or a strategic triangle, that is, the presence of strategic nuclear forces (SNF), an echeloned antimissile defense (ABM), high-precision weapons (WTO).

We will conduct a comparative analysis of the mentioned forces and means available in the USA, Russia and China, as the most influential at the present stage and in a number of other states, in order to assess the balance of forces.

Modern strategic nuclear forces in the form of a nuclear triad - land-based intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) (land-based strategic nuclear forces) as part of mobile and stationary groups, ballistic missiles mounted on submarines (naval strategic nuclear forces), and strategic aviation (airborne strategic nuclear forces) - capable of delivering nuclear missile strikes (nuclear weapons) at any time of the day and hitting objects at the right point on the globe in order to inflict specified (unacceptable) damage on any state. In the future, space strategic nuclear forces may appear. Strategic nuclear forces are one of the main deterrent forces. Sometimes the possession of such weapons becomes the meaning of the state’s activities to ensure sovereignty and territorial integrity.

Currently, there are eight countries in the nuclear club. According to the chronology of the first tests, these are the USA, Russia (USSR), Great Britain, France, China, India, Pakistan, and the DPRK. Israel does not officially recognize its nuclear weapons.

The United States, Russia, and, in the near future, China possess the capabilities of the nuclear triad in full. The latter builds up nuclear capacity. According to the American edition of The Washington Free Beacon, citing US intelligence agencies, the 5 of December 2015 of China conducted a test launch of the Dongfeng-41 ICBM (DF-41) from a mobile mobile installation.

In addition, according to estimates of the International Commission on fissile materials, India may have 80 – 100 nuclear charges, Pakistan - 90 – 100. Both states have the groundwork for their buildup. Israel, in the unanimous opinion of all experts, has owned its own-developed nuclear warheads from the end of the 60's - the beginning of the 70's.

The United States and Russia have approximately equal power in the strategic nuclear forces in the modern world. Slowly but surely, China is approaching them.

Do not stand under the "Arrow"

As for the echeloned missile defense, its origins were laid during the Second World War in connection with the creation and use of ballistic (V-2) and cruise (V-1) missiles by Germany for attacking targets in England (the Tamper project). The first combat launch of the German BR in London was 8 September 1944.



Modern missile defense systems are able to detect and hit any space and air targets. Today only the United States has such capabilities. The forces and means in this direction are rapidly increasing in Israel. He has already created a three-echelon missile defense system and successfully applies it (“Cloud Pillar” is the codename of the anti-terrorist operation in the Gaza Strip, conducted on November 14 – 21, “Unbreakable Rock” is the codename of the military operation in the same place from July 7 on August 26 of August 2014).

Israel is close to creating an upper, fourth echelon with its missile defense system Arrow-3 (Strela-3). Representatives of the Israel Defense Department of the Israeli Defense Ministry and the US Missile Defense Agency 10 on December 2015 announced the launch of the first successful test of an Arrow-3 long-range missile defense system with interception of a target missile.

Four tiers will include:

1. Protection against ICBMs located outside the atmosphere is the Hetz-3 system.

2. Protection against medium-range ballistic missiles (1000 – 5500 km) and BB ICBMs that entered the atmosphere are Hetz-2.

3. Protection against short-range ballistic missiles (500 – 1000 km according to the American classification) or operational-tactical and tactical ballistic missiles (OTBR, TBR according to the Russian classification), in addition to the above, can provide the universal Patriot PAC-3 anti-missile system and the anti-missile system (PPK) "Sling of David."

4. Protection from unguided rockets, artillery shells and mortar shells at a distance from 4 to 70 kilometers, as well as to intercept airplanes, helicopters and unmanned aerial vehicles at a height of up to 10 kilometers - the tactical system "Iron Dome".

Moreover, it is planned to create the fifth missile defense line of Israel - the deployment of a laser system “Iron ray” (Iron Beam) short range.

The United States is striving hard to create a multi-tier national missile defense system. 1 November 2015 officially announced the successful conduct of complex test shooting in the area of ​​Wake Island in the Western Pacific, designated as FTO-02 E2a. The AEGIS and THAAD missile defense systems were tested. 10 December 2015 of the year became known about the successful conduct of the first test firing with the interception of a land-based missile defense system AEGIS ASHORE, located in Hawaii.

The development of US missile defense is envisaged not only in the territory of the state itself, where two positional areas were created (the Fort Greely airbase in Alaska and Vandenberg in California), but also globally on the European part (the so-called European missile defense system), in Asia and the United States. Pacific region (South Korea, Japan, Australia).

The plans for the development of the US national missile defense system for the period up to 2025 include the creation of the third missile defense area of ​​the continental US territory covering the industrial centers of the Atlantic coast, as well as bringing the total number of GMD missiles in the US to 56 (28 in Alaska, 14 in California and 14 on the Atlantic coast), in the future - to 100 anti-GBI.

They strive to have a missile defense system similar to the US, Russia, China, India, Japan, South Korea and some other states.

Global caliber

The third component of the strategic triangle under consideration is high-precision weapons. This is a system that includes a carrier and a guided munition equipped with means of aiming and end guidance, capable of hitting land and sea targets in any conditions, taking into account temporary changes, with a probability of no less than 0,5 with one shot (launch, discharge) within the affected area. In addition, precision weapons allow selective destruction of critical objects at a given point during any air defense.


With the liberation of Kuwait (“Desert Storm”, 1991), the WTO accounted for 10 percent of the total number of aircraft used, in the war against Yugoslavia (1999) - up to 40 percent, and against Iraq (2003) - up to 80 percent.

Understanding the importance and high efficiency of the WTO, 18 January 2003, 43, US President George Walker Bush, signed a directive on the concept of a fast global strike. Its essence is the development of high-precision conventional weapons of strategic use, which allow striking non-nuclear high-precision weapons against targets of any country without radioactive contamination of the terrain, and paralyze the response.

Today, only the United States has such capabilities. And in the near future it is unlikely that any state will have such a number of similar means of destruction in ordinary equipment.

The US-published results of the exercise suggest that when striking a fairly large and highly developed country with an 3500 – 4000 expenditure of a conventional WTO for four to six hours, it loses its ability to resist the aggressor and incurs unacceptable losses in the economy.

1 May 2013 in the United States passed the fourth successful tests of the X-51A Waverider hypersonic missile. They were held in the Pacific. The rocket was launched from the aircraft B-52 at an altitude of 15 200 meters, then using an accelerator rose to 18 200 meters. During the flight, which lasted six minutes, the X-51A Waverider developed speed in 5,1 Mach numbers (6100 km / h). Flying distance 426 kilometers, the rocket was destroyed.

The United States transfers part of the tasks that were previously assigned to nuclear weapons, to weapons of global range and the highest accuracy that an ordinary warhead carries. Four nuclear-powered submarines of the "Ohio" type have long been re-equipped with Tomahawks for firing. On each - on 154 cruise missiles BGM-109.

Russia and China are trying to keep up with the United States.

Starting from October 7 2015, the Russian aerospace forces have deployed cruise missiles from Kaliber-NKE surface carriers, Caliber-PLE submarines and X-101, X-555 submarines in Syria testifies to confident steps to create, modernize and combat use of the WTO. Understanding this, the administration of US President Barack Obama announced plans to spend a trillion dollars in the next one and a half decades to modernize the WTO’s arsenal.

It is making efforts to create the WTO and the People’s Liberation Army of China. 9 January 2014 of the year over the territory of the country held the first successful flight test of the "super-high-speed" spacecraft, which was named WU-14. According to American military experts who have access to test information, it is designed to launch using an intercontinental ballistic missile. After that, the ship is separated and continues to fly in planning mode at an altitude of approximately 100 kilometers from the surface of the Earth. On the way to the target, the hypersonic glider maneuvers in near-earth space at speeds almost 10 times the speed of sound, that is, approximately 11 000 kilometers per hour (according to other data, 8 to 12 Mach), and uses an airborne radar for targeting.

In the future, the situation may arise that the unification of the WTO and missile defense systems will make it possible to deliver a disarming strike by conventional means against the strategic nuclear forces of any state, and the remaining ballistic missiles and their combat units will be struck by anti-missile defense systems.

The logic of the triangular world

The strategic stability of the modern world order will be violated if at least one of the sides of the designated strategic triangle dominates or is significantly ahead of others in similar components. Today, the US superiority to Russia in the WTO and the development of the missile defense system are traced. Therefore, a further reduction of the strategic nuclear forces of both countries without considering the consideration of other components - missile defense and WTO - in favor of the United States.

The paradox is that further reduction of ballistic missiles according to treaty relations, in particular, between the Russian Federation and the United States, which do not take into account the nuclear potential of Great Britain and France, China, leads to an increase in the likelihood of a nuclear war, rather than reducing it, as we are often .

In the 80-s, when the USSR-US nuclear triad was more than 10 000 warheads in each country, subject to the agreement between the USA and the USSR on limiting missile defense systems in any scenario, the SNF caused irreparable damage (400 ammunition), which corresponded to the death of 28 percent of the population and the destruction of 76 percent of the industrial potential of the USA and the USSR, not to mention the achievement of the threshold of significant damage (10 – 40 charges).

Unilateral US withdrawal from the 1972 agreement on missile defense, a possible reduction in the threshold of deployed strategic carriers in accordance with the Treaty on Measures to Further Reduce and Limit Strategic Offensive Arms from 8 April 2010 (START III) between Russia and the United States to a thousand warheads lead to the situation when it is easier to win a nuclear war (if it can be a strategic gain), if you start first. The development of the WTO and missile defense and their combat use level off the possibilities of retaliation. The remaining ICBMs, SLBMs and their combat units can be destroyed by a deployed global echelon missile defense system, if we are talking about the possibility of using the United States triad.

A special feature of the START III Treaty is that it does not impose clear restrictions on the development of missile defense systems in Europe, but Article XIV and the unilateral statement by the President of Russia, which is an integral part of the document, imply that the United States’s qualitative and quantitative capabilities exceptional circumstances that threaten the highest interests of the Russian Federation, and is the basis for withdrawal from the contract. He also takes into account only the strategic nuclear potential of both countries, but does not apply to conventional weapons and cruise missiles, the superiority in which the United States is obvious.

Moreover, the new START Treaty allows the United States to transfer all heavy bombers (TB) to "non-nuclear". The design of the aircraft provides for the possibility of suspending up to 14 air-launched cruise missiles (ALCM) on six twin and two single front-body nodes.

China should be remembered with its triad, which did not join the treaty on the limitation of medium and shorter-range missiles between the USA and the USSR. Its 118 MRBR 1700 – 4000 kilometers range is an additional strategic potential. Probably, not without intent, geographical maps and textbooks appeared in Chinese schools, where the territory of Siberia to the Urals is designated as belonging to the Middle Kingdom.

This strategic triangle - the SNF, ABM and the WTO - should provide various technical means of reconnaissance, navigation, electronic warfare, communications based on a new technological structure: information, which is rapidly entering the growth phase.

The presence of the triad state (SNF, missile defense and the WTO) turns it into a world power, which is considered. This is an axiom of the current stage of human development.

Answering the question why the EU could not replace the USSR in the international arena, we note: it did not create a triad. France and Britain have nuclear weapons and their means of delivery, but there are no other components - missile defense and WTO. Therefore, Europe has fallen to the United States, which have a triad, and thereby in a certain way influences events in the world, using the US military-strategic potential.

Non-triad states cannot influence international politics and should join one of the sides or vertices of the current Asia-Pacific folding triangle, that is, the United States, Russia or China. The political leadership of our country, realizing this, is taking emergency steps to form a triad. Its presence will allow for an independent foreign and domestic policy, to ensure sovereignty and territorial integrity. China is doing it quickly. Other states (for example, India, Iran) are also making some efforts to create separate components and the triad as a whole.

Thus, it can be concluded that in the near future a triangle will reappear on the political arena of the world, one side of which will be Russia, and the other - China. And this is a historical fact.

Today, Turkey, Iran and even Poland declare their imperial ambitions, but they, if we accept the above view, can be confirmed only if these states have the strategic nuclear forces, missile defense and the WTO.

The presence of a triad state will ensure the stability, sustainability and security of the world. It is hardly possible to find another explanation for the exclusion of a new world war.
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Originator:
http://vpk-news.ru/articles/31307
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  1. poquello
    poquello 6 July 2016 19: 35
    +11
    our Chinese have specifically hinted that it’s time to block in antinato, this is the second proposal after Iran, it’s interesting to see
    1. oleg-gr
      oleg-gr 6 July 2016 21: 14
      +3
      There is a process of replenishment of losses in the 90s. A strong state is feared and respected. On the weak they wipe their feet. Europe hides under the umbrella of the Americans and obediently obeys their orders. For the species, it can also stand out in front of the boss.
    2. The comment was deleted.
    3. siberalt
      siberalt 6 July 2016 22: 32
      +9
      The author is terribly caught up with his three whales. The scenario of a nuclear war cannot be accurately calculated (if only because of the large number of mobile launch sites for nuclear weapons). A global blow to one of the parties is meaningless by an answer with irreparable damage. There is no such missile defense working with 100% efficiency. Even a preemptive strike from anywhere in the ball will inevitably lead to a response in the United States. Not a single US military specialist will guarantee that it is impossible to get a real answer from Russia. And they will never receive such a guarantee.
      1. ty60
        ty60 7 July 2016 00: 04
        +1
        And about the accuracy of work, you can compare in Syria. Any war on a global scale, the complete degradation of humanity at least.
  2. Reserve officer
    Reserve officer 6 July 2016 19: 36
    +3
    "The presence of a triad (SNF, ABM and WTO) makes the state a world power to be reckoned with. This is an axiom of the current stage of human development."


    The strong have always been respected. At any stage in the history of mankind. But sometimes it was stronger.
    And that is precisely why - "The presence of a triad in the state will ensure the stability, stability and security of the world. It is hardly possible to find another explanation for the exclusion of a new world war."
    In this case, the winners, i.e. stronger, will not be.
    1. Bramb
      Bramb 6 July 2016 19: 48
      -1
      Will be. No need to repeat the nonsense of journalists.
      1. vovanpain
        vovanpain 6 July 2016 20: 00
        +16
        Quote: Bramb
        Will be. No need to repeat the nonsense of journalists.

        Of course they will. hi The truth is, if planet Earth survives after World War II. request
        1. Karasik
          Karasik 6 July 2016 20: 11
          +3
          Quote: vovanpain
          ... if planet Earth survives after World War II.

          The planet is saved. There will be no humanity.
          1. Bramb
            Bramb 6 July 2016 20: 24
            -8
            And humanity will survive.
            Well, let's roll back to the middle of the 20th century - and that’s it.
            1. poquello
              poquello 6 July 2016 20: 30
              +6
              Quote: Bramb
              And humanity will survive.
              Well, let's roll back to the middle of the 20th century - and that’s it.

              not so optimistic, population decline, survival problems - 17th century
              1. Bramb
                Bramb 6 July 2016 20: 46
                -5
                Blows will be carried out on large industrial centers, military centers and large crowds: cities. 2/3 of the missiles will not reach and will not explode. Surely there will be medium and small cities, distant cities, almost all villages and towns. Those. 90% of the minimum knowledge will remain. Even some of the advanced technologies and industries will be preserved, such as mobile communications and satellite communications (except for the initial period due to EMR).
                So, no 17 centuries. The middle of the 20th century. And this is quite a norm.))
                1. vovanpain
                  vovanpain 6 July 2016 22: 02
                  +7
                  Quote: Bramb
                  Even some of the advanced technologies and industries will be preserved, such as mobile communications and satellite communications (except for the initial period due to EMR).
                  So, no 17 centuries. The middle of the 20th century. And this is quite a norm.))

                  A colleague, could it have been possible to live after the accident in Chernobyl? Don’t forget about radiation, plus radioactive ashes, the effect of a nuclear winter, who will survive will finish them. If the United States and Russia start (oh God forbid) exchange vigorous loaves, like not to slide into the Stone Age. request
                  1. Bramb
                    Bramb 7 July 2016 04: 41
                    0
                    It is possible to compare radioactive releases from nuclear power plants after a nuclear explosion, but they are very different. About once every 10-50.
                    30 years passed after the Chernobyl accident and 10 years ago it was possible to live normally there. But the pollution from nuclear weapons is different: they decay many times faster. And without cleaning after 5 years it is possible. It's about the epicenter.
                    I myself live in a place that is strategic, and in case of war I won't even have time to escape. All that remains is to watch the beautiful clouds and mushrooms. )) But at one time he calculated the consequences of explosions, and the consequences of radio clouds and the so-called nuclear winter. Well, this "winter" does not work out in any way! I believe it was invented for fear and in order to prevent a third world war. And from this point of view, it is correct. But from a technical point of view, this is 90% horror stories. Although, the remaining 10 percent is also enough to regret.))
                    And in cities, the shock wave attenuates very quickly due to buildings. For example, Moscow needs about 100-300 Hiroshima level bombs. And then much remains.
                    So, no stone ages. The middle of the 20th century. And yes: envy the Siberians! They will definitely survive and the clouds will bypass them.))
                2. Dimontius
                  Dimontius 7 July 2016 00: 17
                  0
                  do not forget about yellowstone, it will draw the world into permafrost due to gigantic ash, and not only it, but it is full of large volcanoes that are waiting for a shake to hide the sun for 100 years
                  1. Bramb
                    Bramb 7 July 2016 05: 02
                    0
                    Hope this is such a bad joke?
                    Do not drag here all the yellowness from MK and other ren-tv.
                3. poquello
                  poquello 7 July 2016 01: 08
                  0
                  Quote: Bramb
                  ... 2/3 of the missiles will not reach and will not explode. Surely there will be medium and small cities, distant cities, almost all villages and towns. Those. 90% of the minimum knowledge will remain. Even some of the advanced technologies and industries will be preserved, such as mobile communications and satellite communications (except for the initial period due to EMR).
                  ...

                  the dust will rise, there will be a sharp change in temperature, storms, hurricanes, etc. will intensify several times, the cataclysm will be healthy, and how much time will pass before a condition suitable for normal life is better not to experiment
                  1. Bramb
                    Bramb 7 July 2016 04: 58
                    +2
                    Where is normal life?
                    There will be no sharp average temperature change, of course. You cannot heat a bucket of water with a grenade. We just consider the heat capacity as a first approximation, so as not to write about temperature.
                    If in places of explosions, then from 5 to 10 years maximum. If in remote areas, then somewhere they will not notice, and in the central part of Russia in 0,5-2 years.
                    Well, the Americans are worse off: they can leave the coastal zones, all of California, Pennsylvania, Florida and major cities for a long time. And there they have a lot of concentrated. They will roll back much further. And if our landmines have been updated, then in general you can forget about this continent)). And in Siberia there will be norms almost everywhere. In Australia, except that planes will fly less often: there will be nowhere. Well, except for Norilsk. )))
                    So everywhere will be different. But experiments have already been conducted. Hence the knowledge. Better not, yes.)
                    1. poquello
                      poquello 7 July 2016 21: 42
                      0
                      Quote: Bramb
                      There will be no sharp average temperature change, of course.

                      it’s for you, of course, but for me it’s not clear, why did everyone suddenly switch from atmospheric to underground nuclear weapons tests?
                4. Maki Avellevich
                  Maki Avellevich 7 July 2016 06: 11
                  +3
                  Bramb (2) RU Yesterday, 20:46 ↑ New
                  Blows will be carried out on large industrial centers, military centers and large crowds: cities. 2/3 of the missiles will not reach and will not explode. Surely there will be medium and small cities, distant cities, almost all villages and towns. Those. 90% of the minimum knowledge will remain. Even some of the advanced technologies and industries will be preserved, such as mobile communications and satellite communications (except for the initial period due to EMR).
                  So, no 17 centuries. The middle of the 20th century. And this is quite a norm.))


                  panic
                  economic disruption
                  breakdown of process chains
                  anarchy
                  loss of medical technology

                  continue? if 10% of something is preserved this will be the success of mankind.
              2. Maki Avellevich
                Maki Avellevich 7 July 2016 06: 07
                +1
                poquello (3) RU Yesterday, 20:30 ↑ New
                Quote: Bramb
                And humanity will survive.
                Well, let's roll back to the middle of the 20th century - and that’s it.
                not so optimistic, population decline, survival problems - 17th century


                I'm afraid we’ll bomb ourselves to Mad Max ...
            2. ALEA IACTA EST
              ALEA IACTA EST 6 July 2016 20: 46
              +10
              Quote: Bramb
              Well, let's roll back to the middle of the 20th century - and that’s it.

              XX century what era?
            3. asiat_61
              asiat_61 7 July 2016 01: 10
              +3
              BC.
  3. Verdun
    Verdun 6 July 2016 19: 39
    +9
    Thus, it can be concluded that in the near future a triangle will reappear on the political arena of the world, one side of which will be Russia, and the other - China. And this is a historical fact.
    In order for this to become a fact, the Russian economy must rise to the level of the Chinese economy. Otherwise, the triangle will not be equilateral, with a strong bias, and will not last long. Only a strong economy makes it possible to maintain a strong army. I.V. understood this very well. Stalin. He understands this CCP guide no less well.
    1. Weyland
      Weyland 6 July 2016 19: 54
      +2
      Quote: Verdun
      Otherwise, the triangle will not be equilateral, with a strong bias, and will not last long

      According to game theory, this is not necessary - the main thing is that it be a triangle (i.e. the sum of any two sides was greater than any third). Then even the "weak" side is safe: it is not profitable for any of the rivals to give it up to be torn apart by the 2nd (remember how in the play "A Glass of Water" Bolingbroke explains this situation to Lady Abigail?) - and at the same time she can actually change the balance of power in one way or another the other side.
      1. Verdun
        Verdun 6 July 2016 20: 09
        +1
        Quote: Weyland
        According to game theory, this is not necessary

        Life is not a game. If you do not feed the boxing champion or the genius of chess, both will die of hunger. A tightrope walker, constantly maintaining a risky balance, if he doesn’t get off the rope in time, sooner or later breaks down. Equally weak consolation is the position of the badger, living on the border of the territories of two bears. There is always a chance that one of the bears will step on you. Not even from evil, but just awake ....
        1. Weyland
          Weyland 7 July 2016 01: 41
          0
          Quote: Verdun
          There is always a chance that one of the bears will step on you. Not even from evil, but just awake ....


          This is on a badger. And on porcupine I suppose even sleep will not come laughing
          1. Verdun
            Verdun 7 July 2016 17: 36
            0
            Quote: Weyland
            But the porcupine, I suppose, will not even fall asleep

            What for a bear, even a dozen needles in the ass? Yes, it will hurt. And even a shame. But absolutely not deadly. But the porcupine will die ... ((
    2. Muvka
      Muvka 6 July 2016 20: 05
      +2
      Quote: Verdun
      Thus, it can be concluded that in the near future a triangle will reappear on the political arena of the world, one side of which will be Russia, and the other - China. And this is a historical fact.
      In order for this to become a fact, the Russian economy must rise to the level of the Chinese economy. Otherwise, the triangle will not be equilateral, with a strong bias, and will not last long. Only a strong economy makes it possible to maintain a strong army. I.V. understood this very well. Stalin. He understands this CCP guide no less well.

      Comrade, please give birth to 1,2 billion people and we will immediately catch up and overtake China in terms of GDP.
      1. Verdun
        Verdun 6 July 2016 20: 15
        +5
        Quote: Muvka
        Comrade, please give birth to us

        The point is not to give birth a lot, but to live long and live fruitfully. At the same time, catching up with China in terms of GDP, having the resources of Russia, there are chances if you use the available opportunities wisely. Moreover, if this is not done, someone stronger will come and select these resources.
      2. Sergey39
        Sergey39 6 July 2016 20: 19
        -10%
        Why give birth? You can offer Ukrainians, Poles and other French hectares in Siberia.
        1. Mikhail Krapivin
          Mikhail Krapivin 6 July 2016 20: 30
          +8
          Quote: Sergey39
          Why give birth? You can offer Ukrainians, Poles and other French hectares in Siberia.


          To the French, you might think. Khokhlam and the Poles - for no reason.
        2. Verdun
          Verdun 6 July 2016 20: 33
          +5
          Quote: Sergey39
          Why give birth? You can offer Ukrainians, Poles and other French hectares in Siberia.
          With what ease are the descendants of those people who gathered our lands together, paying later with blood, ready to give them right and left today ... And why the French and Poles? What is not immediately Americans?
        3. Chisayna
          Chisayna 6 July 2016 20: 43
          +4
          As well as Azerbaijanis, Tajiks, Uzbeks, Moldovans, Armenians, per hectare. Well, no, I have a grandfather born in 1903 as a young teenager in 1918, joined the army of Shchetinkin and Kravchenko.
          in order to fight with the Kolchakites, the Belachekhs and the White Cossacks. As he told, many of them had to be buried in Siberia.
        4. Bramb
          Bramb 6 July 2016 20: 52
          +7
          Quote: Sergey39
          Why give birth? You can offer Ukrainians, Poles and other French hectares in Siberia.

          Minus. I won’t even explain why. Even if the irony.
          1. Sergey39
            Sergey39 6 July 2016 21: 27
            +2
            You probably prefer the Chinese? Or do you give birth yourself?
      3. Lt. Air Force stock
        Lt. Air Force stock 6 July 2016 20: 48
        +4
        Quote: Muvka
        Comrade, please give birth to 1,2 billion people and we will immediately catch up and overtake China in terms of GDP.

        And what's the point? China is strong in economic power, yes, but because of the large population, the standard of living there is worse even than ours. Not everyone receives a pension.
        China will never be able to provide the same level of social security as in the West, nor can it be compared with the West in terms of salaries.
        China has developed economically thanks to cheap labor, if they start raising salaries at a fast pace, the country will cease to be attractive to manufacturers from all over the world.
        1. Verdun
          Verdun 6 July 2016 21: 12
          +6
          Quote: Lt. air force reserve
          And what's the point?

          On the one hand, you have not studied economics well. On the other - not very up to date with current events. As soon as the Chinese economy develops to a certain level, it can well exist without Europe and the United States. After all, the products produced in the Middle Kingdom will be bought by its citizens without any problems, which will be a serious incentive for economic development. The purchasing power of the billionth population will allow this to happen. And now, China has bought a significant part of the African lands rich in various resources and is investing in their development. Including - in the production of agricultural products and mining. They have a lot to develop, and most importantly - they think about it and want it. They don’t hide money in airbags.
          1. Lt. Air Force stock
            Lt. Air Force stock 6 July 2016 22: 47
            0
            Quote: Verdun
            After all, the products produced in the Middle Kingdom will be bought by its citizens without any problems, which will be a serious incentive for economic development.

            Now do not buy? Buying just need to produce their competitive products for the global market, and not focus on the domestic market.
            I doubt that in China in the next 50 years a rival computer company, IBM, or a manufacturer of graphics cards and other electronics, will appear.
            Quote: Verdun
            And now, China has bought a significant part of the African lands rich in various resources and is investing in their development.

            For such a large population somewhere in Africa to develop the bowels is not an option. Many people like to give an example of the Middle East oil countries, their standard of living and social benefits, only in countries like Qatar, the population is 1,9 million, and in China 1,3 billion.
            Quote: Verdun
            On the one hand, you have not studied economics well. On the other - not very up to date with current events.

            Let’s think logically, the GDP according to purchasing power parity in China is 19392 billion dollars, in the USA 17947, the population in the USA 325 million people, in China 1 billion 373 million.
            In order for the standard of living in China to be like in the USA, their GDP should grow at least 4,5 times from 19 trillion to 87 trillion dollars a year, the entire world GDP is less than this figure.
            Well, and how will China develop? Yes, they can eventually reduce the share of low-skilled labor and begin to develop their technologies and highly skilled labor, but the US and the EU will never buy the same COMAC aircraft and other high-tech products for political reasons. And with the help of domestic consumption, you cannot achieve a Western standard of living.
            1. Verdun
              Verdun 6 July 2016 23: 17
              +1
              Quote: Lt. air force reserve
              And with the help of domestic consumption, you cannot achieve a Western standard of living.

              The Western standard of living is maintained not by consumption, but by the cheap labor of both migrants and residents of countries with a lower standard of living. And this is one of the reasons why dollar-denominated GDP is a rather dubious measurement criterion. At the same time, this development path is increasingly beginning to resemble the situation with the experiments of Professor Vibegallo on "Monday starts on Saturday". Remember with the homunculi? The second stage, apparently, has already been passed ...
  4. masiya
    masiya 6 July 2016 19: 42
    +1
    according to the presented data, it seems that parity is seen, and if we cooperate with China, we can stake out two angles, and maybe India can be considered for balance ... also a nuclear power, though ... although of course ... ???
  5. weksha50
    weksha50 6 July 2016 19: 43
    +2
    Well, analytics seems to be normal ...
    The normal alignment of the goals pursued by the United States under all these agreements ... That is, they take into account only the approximate parity of nuclear weapons between the USA and the Russian Federation, but do not take into account other owners of nuclear weapons, as well as the excess of the USA over the Russian Federation in the WTO ...

    And again, as always historically for Russia-RI-USSR-Russia, we have catastrophically little time to at least catch up with at least the USA in matters of air defense-missile defense ...
    1. Ingvar 72
      Ingvar 72 6 July 2016 21: 07
      +3
      Greetings George! hi
      Quote: weksha50
      Well, analytics seems to be normal ..
      I didn’t like it. Beginning with
      The military power of any state in modern conditions is again determined by the triad or strategic triangle, that is, the presence of strategic nuclear forces (SNF), layered missile defense (ABM), and high-precision weapons (WTO).
      I immediately remembered the old soldier's saying - "A soldier without welding is like a blank cartridge." And economically, we do not pull. Imagine such a situation - China makes peace with the West, and introduces sanctions against Russia (an unrealistic option, but such a possibility cannot be completely ruled out). All, I repeat all (including the military-industrial complex), our industry is left without high-tech electronics, and thanks to the efforts of RosNano, we are left with developments ten years ago. Not to mention the rest.
      So that the triangle is the most stable figure, I agree with the author. That's just the fulcrum of the triangle, he voiced clearly not the same. request

      Quote: weksha50
      at least catch up with at least the United States in matters of air defense-missile defense ...

      We’ll catch up forever, the United States has more (financial) resources. A horse needs a move. For example, withdrawal from the agreement on the non-deployment of nuclear weapons in space (no missile defense will help), the prohibition of overflights of reconnaissance satellites over the territory of Russia (our sky, our space too, let them get out as they like), shoot down military satellites. This is exactly our, primordially Russian way - to win is NOT logical. In the meantime, we are following the development vector set by the West. And he promises us the role of the eternal catching up. hi
      1. andj61
        andj61 6 July 2016 21: 21
        +3
        Quote: Ingvar 72
        A horse needs a move. For example, withdrawal from the agreement on the non-deployment of nuclear weapons in space (no missile defense will help), the prohibition of overflights of reconnaissance satellites over the territory of Russia (our sky, our space too, let them get out as they like), shoot down military satellites. This is exactly our, primordially Russian way - to win is NOT logical.

        Greetings, Igor! hi
        Horseback riding is, of course, wonderful! But how to consider whether the satellite violated the borders of OUR outer space or not? How will we project the satellite position on our territory? And shooting down satellites is not a trivial task ... Well, if it is in low orbit, but if it is in high? How do you get it there? But what about satellites at a geostationary? They can only spy on the road, and they don’t hang at all over our territory ... request There are many questions, but something is not visible ...
        And nuclear weapons in outer space are a way to mutual destruction, and very fast. In the end, either we or the Americans are all the same, but someone will not survive and deliver a disarming strike from outer space first - and win! Or he won’t win ... but the temptation is to strike .. wink
        Therefore, they prohibited the deployment of nuclear weapons in space, as they understood that this was a direct way to nowhere!
        1. Ingvar 72
          Ingvar 72 6 July 2016 21: 46
          +4
          Good evening, Andrew! hi
          Quote: andj61
          And nuclear weapons in space are a way to mutual destruction

          It was also considered earlier about all nuclear weapons. In principle, any weapon is the path to destruction. But the absence thereof is a guarantee of the destruction of one of the opponents.
          Quote: andj61
          and deliver the disarming strike from outer space first - and win! Or he won’t win ... but the temptation is to strike.

          The temptation has always been. But there was a fear of an answer. And when you strike first, you will not disarm the enemy, there is an SSBN, there will be the same satellites with nuclear weapons. The pendos point is also not iron.
          And how to divide space - as well as the Arctic, along the shelf. And you can shoot down in any orbit, if you have weapons in space, and not on the ground. You can say utopia, fantasy, but "Twenty thousand leagues under the water" Jules Verne wrote in 1870, and "Aelita" Tolstoy wrote in 1923. Everything is embodied, there would be a desire.
          Quote: andj61
          Therefore, they prohibited the deployment of nuclear weapons in space, as they understood that this was a direct way to nowhere!

          TNW was also prohibited, missile defense was limited, but what's the point? All contracts were violated unilaterally, and not by us. request
          In general, I expressed my proposed ways of solving the problem, not the fact that they are correct, but the horse needs a definite move! hi
      2. weksha50
        weksha50 7 July 2016 15: 02
        +1
        Quote: Ingvar 72
        But economically we are not pulling. Imagine this situation - China is reconciled with the West, and imposes sanctions against Russia (the option is unrealistic, but such an opportunity cannot be completely ruled out). All, I repeat all (including the military-industrial complex), our industry remains without high-tech electronics, and thanks to the efforts of RosNano, we are left with ten-year-old developments. Not to mention the rest.


        I agree completely ... Well, with the rest too ...

        Although there is hardly enough political power and steel in some bodies for the proposed ...
  6. Havoc
    Havoc 6 July 2016 19: 44
    +4
    Good must be with fists.
  7. APASUS
    APASUS 6 July 2016 19: 55
    +5
    Today, Turkey, Iran and even Poland declare their imperial ambitions, but they, if we accept the above view, can be confirmed only if these states have the strategic nuclear forces, missile defense and the WTO.

    In principle, even the creation of a highly echeloned missile defense does not guarantee security against nuclear weapons defeat in countries such as Poland, Iran, Turkey or Israel. Exploding a nuclear strike near the country's borders will damage communications systems, fires, and contaminate the earth and atmosphere. Territory factor plays a role on the percentage of targets hit.
    1. poquello
      poquello 6 July 2016 20: 11
      +2
      Quote: APASUS
      Today, Turkey, Iran and even Poland declare their imperial ambitions, but they, if we accept the above view, can be confirmed only if these states have the strategic nuclear forces, missile defense and the WTO.

      In principle, even the creation of a highly echeloned missile defense does not guarantee security against nuclear weapons defeat in countries such as Poland, Iran, Turkey or Israel. Exploding a nuclear strike near the country's borders will damage communications systems, fires, and contaminate the earth and atmosphere. Territory factor plays a role on the percentage of targets hit.

      and how it plays, if we take the plans for bombarding the USSR with nuclear bombs from the beginning of their creation - the main problem for the bourgeoisie was one, our large territory, yes, a strong army, yes, the people that you’ll break FIGs, etc., but you couldn’t cover at once, always bourgeois understood that we are stretched out, we will not give up and we will tumble
  8. hirurg
    hirurg 6 July 2016 20: 01
    +2
    From the point of view of geometry, it is more correct to say that a triangle is more rigid, and not stable. And, if you take the most rigid figure - this is a circle. So you need to organize a circle with the least number of angles.
    And to whom and with whom to organize such figures - time will tell.
  9. Muvka
    Muvka 6 July 2016 20: 03
    +1
    On May 1, 2013, the fourth successful tests of a hypersonic missile X-51A Waverider. They were held in the Pacific. The missile was launched from the aircraft B-52 at an altitude of 15 meters, then with the help of an accelerator it rose to 200 meters. During the flight, which lasted six minutes, the X-18A Waverider developed a speed of 200 Mach numbers (51 km / h). Flying a distance of 426 kilometers, the rocket was destroyed.

    The logic was lost somewhere along the way apparently. And here it is:

    The United States transfers part of the tasks that were previously assigned to nuclear weapons, to weapons of global range and the highest accuracy that an ordinary warhead carries. Four nuclear-powered submarines of the "Ohio" type have long been re-equipped with Tomahawks for firing. On each - on 154 cruise missiles BGM-109.

    Why is this mentioned after hypersound info? Tomahawks are subsonic and with them an instant hit will not work.
  10. iliitchitch
    iliitchitch 6 July 2016 20: 15
    +1
    It was interesting, reading, thanks for the article. For the human brain, "two" is not enough, "four" is a lot, the options multiply that your cockroaches. So they think for three, that's it. wassat. Like in a fairy tale - three sons, three attempts ...
  11. Vladimir 1964
    Vladimir 1964 6 July 2016 20: 45
    +1
    The triangle is a rigid figure, therefore, in building frames, railway bridges, towers, pylons of high-voltage power lines, etc., they try to use triangular elements as much as possible. As examples of trinity (stability) we can cite the fundamental laws of dialectics (unity and struggle of opposites, mutual transfer of quantity into quality, negation of negation), matter (matter, energy, information), time (past, present, future), physical fields (electromagnetic , gravitational, quantum), signs of a revolutionary situation (crisis of the tops, bottoms do not want to live as before, a significant increase as a result of the activity of the masses). Manifestations of the triad are the beginning, middle, end; thought, will, action; body, soul, spirit; dialectic "thesis - antithesis - synthesis", etc.

    The article is probably cool, I won’t lie I didn’t read it. Enough of the above quote. Why? I will try to explain.
    The theory of the Trinity itself dates back to distant times. But the authors in the preface to their opus cite examples so far from theory that it causes some confusion. At least on the question of dialectical materialism, for the question of the relationship between "top and bottom", purely according to Marx, does not imply a third force. The situation is similar for dialectics and matter. Of course, you probably need to respect the work of people "writing" for the site, but you don't want to feel like a stupid idiot, even here. hi
    1. Bramb
      Bramb 6 July 2016 21: 14
      +1
      Do not be so strict.
      We have many philosophers. And although often their conclusions are incorrect, and the reasoning is naive, they are very interesting people.
      1. Vladimir 1964
        Vladimir 1964 6 July 2016 21: 16
        0
        Quote: Bramb
        Do not be so strict.
        We have many philosophers. And although often their conclusions are incorrect, and the reasoning is naive, they are very interesting people.

        Dear namesake, I haven’t offended the authors. Extremely subjective opinion. what , like. hi
  12. ALABAY45
    ALABAY45 6 July 2016 20: 58
    +1
    "... a unity formed by three separate members ..."
    Yes, God forbid! The dream of an elderly single mother ... By the way, the most stable trapezoid figure is there is no angle, no stress concentrator! ... Wales or Portugal ?! Beer hissing and light-salted nelmochka, with a bulb and dill (a plant like that, or else it’s banned) ... Real football, only just beginning! drinks
    1. family tree
      family tree 6 July 2016 22: 00
      0
      Yept! Mother and Maths! Well, almost a joke,
      The commander, we deservedly don’t remember what holiday, a hangover, six in the morning, we gave out, all of us, potential Heroes of the Soviet Union, in this state, when we are captured, we’ll give a hundred points to any partisan and even shoot ourselves we won’t be able to, because we don’t know which end the PMKs are holding on to, therefore we will deafly incoherently mislead the opponent’s input
      It seems like they drove, with minimal losses, but, at the end of the PM what NO SUCH DETAILS IN PM! No, it’s necessary to have a hangover brain. Since there is no end, then PM infinity, derivative of PM, is a shot, derivative of infinity does not exist, the conclusion is, it is impossible to shoot yourself from PM. Applied hangover math, cho repeat
  13. Vladimir 1964
    Vladimir 1964 6 July 2016 21: 07
    0
    I read comments and rejoice, our country, with all its problems, is invincible. For if two, probably well-known journalists (naturally ours, Russian) can answer the question:
    Answering the question why the EU could not replace the USSR in the international arena, we note: did not create a triad.

    we are invincible, if only because only in the Russian army were we able to connect space and time. This I mean that we are digging a trench from "post to lunch".
    Probably on the question of creating a "triad" the authors may be right, but in dialectics and materialism they are clearly dilettantes. laughing drinks
    1. family tree
      family tree 6 July 2016 22: 29
      0
      Quote: Vladimir 1964
      digging a trench from "post to lunch".

      Yeah, and then from lunch to the end and beyond '' belay drinks
  14. Gardamir
    Gardamir 6 July 2016 21: 10
    +1
    Voynushka is an interesting thing, but I didn’t see anything about the triad. Or did everyone forget how, without a single shot, despite the presence of nuclear weapons, the Soviet Union was destroyed? Therefore, in our time, the triad is as follows: Armed Forces, Economics and Finance, Culture and traditions.
    Everything is clear about the army. But if there is not enough money, then there is nothing to shoot. If there are no traditions, there will be no one to defend the country, they will say better a bad world and leave for Turkey.
  15. sabakina
    sabakina 6 July 2016 21: 28
    +1
    From the article:
    Modern missile defense systems are capable of detecting and hitting any space and air targets. Only the United States has such capabilities today.

    "On the concept of rapid global impact." Its essence is the development of high-precision conventional strategic weapons, which make it possible to strike non-nuclear high-precision weapons against objects of any country without radioactive contamination of the area, and paralyze the response. Today, only the United States has such capabilities.

    Judging by the article, it's time to wrap yourself in a white blanket and slowly crawl towards the nearest cemetery. But as Comrade Sukhov said: "It is better to suffer."
    I understand that we also have not everything in the "openwork", but nevertheless I will tear the button accordion.

    1. Vadim237
      Vadim237 6 July 2016 22: 39
      +1
      Everything with the nuclear arsenal and delivery vehicles is in order - everything is being modernized.
      1. sabakina
        sabakina 6 July 2016 23: 42
        +1
        Quote: Vadim237
        Everything with the nuclear arsenal and delivery vehicles is in order - everything is being modernized.

        Well, it remains to see, see ...
      2. Bramb
        Bramb 7 July 2016 04: 24
        0
        You came to this conclusion after inspecting their factories and arsenals. Or do you just think so?
  16. Mordvin 3
    Mordvin 3 6 July 2016 21: 34
    +2
    A triangle will appear soon ... And this is a historical fact. fool
  17. Mikhail m
    Mikhail m 6 July 2016 22: 10
    +2
    Today, only the United States has such capabilities.

    It painfully often comes across this phrase in the text.
    To the author’s concept of triangles, I responsibly declare that the three-finger shape is the most stable, and the most popular of the three letters.
  18. Tusv
    Tusv 6 July 2016 22: 33
    +1
    Three - the minimum number of points that provide stability

    Leonardo da Vinci’s horse still stands on two hooves in Milan and does not fall. The paradox or genius of Leonardo? This is so, ordinary sophism.
    And so the triad in the modern world is inferior to the quadriga. According to the article on nuclear weapons, the WTO, missile defense, the author forgot about nuclear weapons
  19. lexx2038
    lexx2038 6 July 2016 23: 23
    +1
    Our oligarchs need to impose a separate tax on the country's defense, since so much money has been "earned", it means that there must be smart people - therefore, they must understand, as soon as the ndos cease to be afraid, the money will be taken away from them, the chocolate factories will be bombed, and they themselves will be expended. they have close to their oligarchs. I would have helped myself, but unfortunately my salary or pension will not be enough. Of course, you can speculate about geometric shapes until you see contrails at an angle of 60 degrees to the ground nearby.
  20. Andrey VOV
    Andrey VOV 6 July 2016 23: 24
    0
    I found one logical inconsistency between the authors .... namely, they write that the United States has 4 missile defense lines and only they are a super duper for the WTO .. ​​at the same time, they give a table in which there is no information that Russia has such lines in China , and the authors put equality, there is no information and practically no ... they knew one thing about calibers, but de facto another, and very ... so ... nevertheless, the authors of paint have thickened ... and I consider the laws of physics and mechanics to be directly transferred to politics incorrectly
  21. Rambylbafen
    Rambylbafen 7 July 2016 00: 16
    0
    and enlighten me close to the ground, how our air defense differs wassat as far as I know, our air defense was created with the ability to bring down everything flying (including tomahawks) and now ballistics or people are lying laughing
  22. Wolka
    Wolka 7 July 2016 05: 35
    0
    Well, to be more precise, the most stable figure is not a triangle, but a tetraider with its four points of support in space, and that's right, from which side do not look, all one triangle looms ... so this fourth point in the overall defense system - the attack will be a motivating component, this system will work successfully if the people who manage it are accordingly motivated and correctly oriented in relation to the tasks assigned ...
  23. bogdan4ik
    bogdan4ik 7 July 2016 06: 43
    0
    According to the WTO, an article on HE was - there were no massive opportunities to hit 3-4.5 thousand Tomahawks and their analogues on this planet. About missile defense systems have also been written enough to draw conclusions about its, to put it mildly unreliable. Especially delivered about Israel. Straight country from the future. They have a systemic crisis with scientists, teachers and just teachers at school, there is no way out, but here are 5 echelons of missile defense and combat lasers. An article is written just to be written.