Make a rocket in the same place, where "Topol" and "Yarsy". They have no complaints. So, the problem is not in production, to which the developer, the Moscow Institute of Thermal Engineering (MIT), refers, but in the design flaws of the weapon itself. For land rockets, a transport and launch container (TLC) is used. In it, a rocket travels to the launch site, from which it starts. Sea missiles were loaded into the mine of a submarine without a TPK, its role was played by a mine. So it was until the Mace appeared. For her, they implemented a special scheme: they began to load a rocket in the mine, which is located in the TPC. It is difficult to find a logical explanation for this solution.
In order not to lose too much in the diameter of the rocket, the developer provided a gap between the inner wall of the container and the rocket several times smaller than the gap between the inner wall of the shaft and the rocket. For Americans, for example, the gap between the container and the rocket is smaller than 20 mm. We and the Americans have this gap determined by placing the horizontal damping necessary to ensure the safety of the missile during underwater explosions at a safe distance for the boat. For Bulava, this problem is solved by depreciation placed in the gap between the transport and launch container and the mine. Therefore, the gap between the rocket and the container can indeed be smaller. But it should be sufficient for loading the rocket into the transport and launch container and for the safe launch of the rocket. This is where the questions arise.
When making a working drawing, the designer indicates not only a linear dimension of the part, but also an tolerance for this dimension (plus / minus). Tolerances are determined mainly by the accuracy characteristics of factory machines, presses and other equipment. For this reason, they are never null. These dimensions are controlled by control devices. If the size is in tolerance, then the item is checked. Here it should be noted that the control devices themselves have errors.
Much more difficult with determining the size of assembly units. Their sizes and tolerances for these dimensions are determined by calculations using complex methods of dimensional chains and are already probabilistic values. How does this affect the inside diameter of the transport and launch container and the outer diameter of the rocket? The container is made on a bending mill, followed by welding along a longitudinal seam. The shell of the rocket stage is a reeled cocoon that is not subjected to any machining in outer diameter. It is clear that, taking into account such production technologies, the tolerances for these diameters will be far from zero. And they are difficult to control, given the length of the container and the rocket. Plus, the inevitable distortions of the container and the rocket both in length and in circumference. In addition, there are non-perpendicularity of the docking surfaces of the steps to the theoretical axis of the rocket and temperature changes in the dimensional parameters of the rocket and the transport and launch container due to the temperature difference in the mine of the submarine.
Thus, the rocket is a articulate-compound object with a deviation in all the dimensions specified above, which is located and starts from the transport-launch container, which is also not an ideal cylinder. At the same time, most of the significant dimensions cannot be directly measured, but are calculated and probabilistic.
Essentially, the only criterion of compatibility between the rocket and the container is the fact: the missile “climbed” into the WPK or not ... But the rocket is being dragged into the container at low speeds. The rocket, while not being an absolutely rigid object, “adapts” to the container without large transverse overloads. Another thing start. In this case, the speed of the rocket in the container is very high, and all the bends of the rocket are accompanied by high transverse overloads. At the same time, they are not constant along the length of the rocket and increase in those areas where the degree of deformation increases. If in some areas the transverse overload exceeds the allowable, the individual components of the rocket, located in these areas, have the right to fail.
Thus, in this model it is possible to explain why failures occur in various nodes of the Bulava rocket and practically do not recur. But sometimes the rocket flies. Obviously, in this case, the selected gap between the transport-launch container and the rocket turned out to be commensurate with the technological tolerances.
How can all this be "treated"? The most correct thing is to discard the transport and launch container from the mine and begin designing the rocket from scratch. In this case, we come to the project “Mace-45”, proposed at the beginning of the 2000-s. If you leave the container, it is necessary to increase the gap by reducing the diameter of the rocket. But in this case it is necessary to design a rocket from scratch. You can also consider options with an increase in the diameter of the rocket mines, but what about the already manufactured submarines? You will also need to redesign the transport and launch container and work out a way to start.
MIT, not recognizing its error in the design, however, should not repeat it in Bulava-M, the development of which is already underway. Apparently, in connection with the upcoming alterations of the rocket, it was decided to continue service at least until 2020, of the heavy underwater missile carrier Dmitry Donskoy, which is used as a test platform. About this TASS reported a source in the Russian military-industrial complex. It can be assumed that the new rocket does not have to wait before. Until that time, the strategic component of the Pacific Fleet, in which all hopes were on the SSBN of the 995 and 995А projects, turned into a “lame duck”. After all, no one guarantees that the “Bulava” will be able to reach the designated target.