Once I saw recently in the vast soc. Network article about the PLA, and their plans, that here, they say, they want to seize the Russian Far East. Here is the article itself:
China vs Russia. Victory will not be ours
The question is not whether China will attack Russia, but when. The author, deputy director of the Institute of Political and Military Analysis, believes that if large-scale military aggression in the “classical” form is ever committed against Russia, then with probability 95% (if not 99,99%), China will be the aggressor.
The colossal overpopulation of this country, combined with its rapid economic growth, creates an extremely complex set of problems, for a very brief description of which a large separate article is required. Moreover, the interconnection of these problems is such that the solution of some aggravates others. China is objectively not viable within its current borders. He must become much larger if he does not want to become much smaller. He cannot do without external expansion to seize resources and territories, this is the reality. You can close your eyes to her, but she will not go anywhere from this. In addition, there is no need to imagine that Southeast Asia will become the main direction of China's expansion. There is quite a bit of territory and resources, with a lot of local population. The opposite situation: there is a lot of territory, huge resources, there is very little population in Kazakhstan and the Asian part of Russia. And this is where China's expansion will go. Moreover, the trans-Ural territories of the Russian Federation in China are considered to be their own. A brief description of the relevant Chinese historical concepts can be devoted to another long article. Only a person who has absolutely no idea what China and the Chinese are can believe that the border problem between the Russian Federation and the PRC has been resolved.
Of course, for China, the peaceful form of expansion (economic and demographic) is preferable. But the military is not excluded. It is extremely significant that in recent years the Chinese army has been conducting exercises that it is simply impossible to interpret as preparations for aggression against Russia, and the scale of the exercises (spatial scale and number of troops involved) is constantly growing.
At the same time, apparently, we still do not realize that we have long lost not only quantitative but also qualitative superiority over China in military equipment. In Soviet times, we had both, and this, as the microwaves behind Damansky showed, compensated for China's tremendous superiority in manpower.
Carl from Clara stole corals
China lived for a very long time by giving it the USSR in the 1950's - the beginning of the 1960's. However, after warming relations with the West, he gained access to some samples of American and European technology, and from the end of the 1980-x began to acquire the latest technology in the USSR, and then in Russia, thanks to this, in many classes, "jumping over" a generation. In addition, China has always had the exceptional ability to steal technology. In 1980, Chinese intelligence even managed to obtain in the United States blueprints of the latest W-88 warhead from a Trident-2 ballistic missile for submarines. And as usual, China steals equipment in large quantities.
For example, nothing is known about the fact that Russia sold the PRC multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS) Smerch or, all the more, a license to manufacture them. However, first, the Chinese army appeared the MLRS A-100, very similar to the "Tornado", and then the PHL-03 - its complete copy. The self-propelled artillery installation of the Tour 88 (PLZ-05) is very similar to our "Mstu", which we again did not sell in the PRC. We never sold China a license to manufacture the C-300 anti-aircraft missile system, which did not prevent the Chinese from copying it under the name HQ-9. However, the French, for example, successfully stole the Crotal anti-aircraft missile system, the Exochet anti-ship missile, the M68 shipboard artillery, and so on.
Synthesizing foreign technologies and adding something of their own, the Chinese military-industrial complex begins to create fairly original samples: the Tourn 95 anti-aircraft missile system (PGZ-04), the PLL-05 and PTL-02 self-propelled guns, and the BMP ZBD-05, etc.
Made in China
In general, as has already been said, in almost all classes of conventional weapons, the qualitative superiority of Russia is a thing of the past. In some ways, China even got around us - for example, in drones and in rifle weapons. The Chinese are gradually changing the Kalashnikovs to the latest automatic rifles created according to the bullpup scheme based on both the same AK and Western rifles (FA MAS, L85).
Moreover, although some experts believe that China is technologically dependent on the Russian Federation as its main supplier of weapons (therefore, it cannot attack us), this is a pure myth.
China acquired in Russia only such weapons, which were intended for operations against Taiwan and the United States (while Beijing was seriously planning an operation to seize the island). It is obvious that a sea war between the PRC and the Russian Federation is almost impossible, there is no need for either side or the other. The war will be ground character.
In this regard, it should be noted that China did not acquire any equipment in Russia for its ground forces, since it will be used against Russia in the event of war.
Even in the field of the Air Force, China got rid of its dependence on the Russian Federation. He bought in Russia a limited number of Su-27 fighter jets - in total 76 units, of which 40 is Su-27UB. From such a unique ratio of combat and combat training vehicles, it is quite obvious that Russian-made Su-27 were purchased for flight crew training. Then, as is known, China abandoned the licensed production of Su-27 from Russian components, having built only 105 aircraft from the planned 200. At the same time, he copied this fighter and began its unlicensed production called J-11В with its own engines, weapons and avionics. Moreover, if in China 1960-s copying of the Soviet samples was their deliberate primitivization, then J-11В, judging by the available data, is almost no worse than Su-27.
It may be noted that in recent times, China’s military-technical cooperation with Russia is being curtailed. In part, this can be explained by the fact that the rapidly degrading Russian military industrial complex is no longer able to offer China the weapons and equipment that it needs. Another explanation is that Beijing is seriously considering the possibility of conducting combat operations against the RF Armed Forces in the foreseeable future.
Since the J-11B in its tactical and technical characteristics is approximately equal to the Su-27, and created on the basis of the Israeli “Lavi”, but using Russian and its own technologies, the J-10 is quite comparable to the MiG-29, we have no qualitative superiority in the air . A quantitative superiority will certainly be on the side of China, especially given the almost complete collapse of the Russian air defense system (primarily in the Far East). According to the Su-30, it will be generally overwhelming: China has more than 120, ours - 4. The main drawback of the Chinese aviation - the absence of normal attack aircraft and attack helicopters, but this will not be a big disaster for them, because on land the situation for Russia is even worse.
Best chinese Tanks - Ture 96 and Ture 99 (aka Ture 98G) - practically no worse than our best tanks - T-72B, T-80U, T-90. Actually, they are all “close relatives,” and therefore their characteristics are very close. At the same time, the leadership of the Russian Defense Ministry has already announced the actual liquidation of our tank troops. 2000 tanks should remain in all of Russia. China has about the same number of modern tanks now. There are much more numerous (at least 6000) old tanks (from Ture 59 to Ture 80), created on the basis of the T-54. They are quite effective in the fight against infantry fighting vehicles and armored personnel carriers, as well as to create a "mass effect". It is likely that the PLA command uses these very machines for the first strike. All the same, they will inflict some kind of loss on us, and most importantly, they will divert our anti-tank weapons, after which an exhausted and weakened defense will be hit with the use of already modern technology. By the way, in air, a similar "mass effect" can create old fighters of the J-7 and J-8 types.
That is, according to modern models of armaments, the Armed Forces of Russia and the Chinese Army now have approximate equality (qualitative and quantitative), which confidently (and not very slowly) turns into the advantage of the Chinese army. At the same time, the latter has a huge “overhang” of old, but still quite “good” samples, which are perfect as an “expendable” material to wear out the defense of the Russian troops. Due to the presence of such a unique problem in China as the “shortage of brides”, the loss of several hundred thousand young males for the Chinese leadership seems to be not only a problem, but a blessing. And certainly not the problem of "recycling" in the battle of several thousand units of outdated armored vehicles.
Already, only two of the seven military districts of the Chinese army — the Beijing and Shenyansky, adjacent to the border with Russia — are stronger than all the Russian Armed Forces (from Kaliningrad to Kamchatka). And at the potential theater of military operations (Trans-Baikal and the Far East), the forces of the parties are simply incomparable, China surpasses us not even times, but dozens of times. In this case, the transfer of troops from the west in the event of a real war will be almost impossible, since Chinese saboteurs are guaranteed to cut the Trans-Siberian at once in many places along its length, and we don’t have other communications with the east (we can transport people by air, but not heavy equipment) .
Tanks are not our fast
At the same time, and in combat training, especially in units and formations equipped with the most modern equipment, the Chinese army has long bypassed us. Thus, in the 38 Army of the Beijing Military District, the artillery is fully automated, it is still inferior in accuracy to the American, but already surpassed the Russian. The rate of advance of the 38 Army reaches 1000 km per week (150 km per day).
Accordingly, in an ordinary war we have no chances. Unfortunately, nuclear weapons do not guarantee salvation, because China also has them. Yes, while we have superiority in strategic nuclear forces, but they are rapidly declining. At the same time, we do not have medium-range ballistic missiles, but China does have them, which almost eliminates their lag in intercontinental ballistic missiles (which is also declining). The ratio of tactical nuclear weapons is unknown, only you need to understand that we will have to use it on our own territory. As for the exchange of strategic nuclear forces, the Chinese potential is more than enough to destroy the main cities of European Russia, which they do not need (there are many people and few resources). There are very strong suspicions that, understanding this, the Kremlin will not go for the use of nuclear weapons. Therefore, nuclear deterrence against China is the same myth as its technological dependence on us. Learn Chinese
Of the seven military districts of China, two are the most powerful - with headquarters in Beijing and Shenyang - adjacent to the border with Russia. The first is focused on our Siberian military district, the second - on the Far East. These districts comprise four of the nine tank and six of the nine mechanized divisions, six of the twelve PLA ground forces brigades.
Two more tank divisions and one tank brigade are part of the Lanzhou military district (occupies the western part of the country, is focused on Central Asia, Mongolia and Siberia west of Baikal), and one tank, one mechanized division, two tank and the only PLA mechanized brigades - to the Jingnan VO. The latter is located in the center of the country and is a strategic reserve for the Beijing, Shenyang, Lanzhou and Nanjing districts.
1 October Parade 2009 Military Parade on Tiananmen Square
Military parades of this magnitude just do not hold: and expensive, and secret weapons without a special purpose is not shown. Such parades are a kind of open message. Question: what and to whom?
On the one hand, the newest amphibious light tanks, self-propelled guns, amphibious armored vehicles and anti-ship complexes gave one answer: of course, this is another “final and decisive” warning to Taiwan. But the newest main tanks, heavy self-propelled artillery, volley fire systems, powerful air defense systems, a full range of nuclear missiles - from operational-tactical to intercontinental - this is ours. Like, the second Damanskiy will not.
A simple analysis shows that almost everything that was possible, the Chinese have either bought or stolen from our military-industrial complex. For example, the 300-mm MLRS PHL-03 is a copy of our MLRS Smerch, the HQ-9 SAMs - a copy of the Russian S-300 SAMs, 155-mm SAU PLZ-05 - a copy of our 152-mm SAU "Msta". And many of the samples, in which Soviet roots are visible, even went ahead, so it’s fit for us to steal Chinese technologies.
Main tank Type 99
Further development of the tank Type 98. It features a more powerful 1500-strong turbodiesel, improved armor protection (clearly visible influence of the German Leopard-II), an improved fire control system.
With equal firepower, the latest Chinese tanks are much more power-equipped (HP 1500 diesel engines vs. HP 840 diesel engines from T-90), have better fire control systems, more advanced navigation and are equipped with thermal sights. The tank is equipped with an integrated active protection system JD-3. The sensor detects the laser beam of the enemy’s guidance systems and automatically turns the turret in their direction. The LSDW “laser gun” with a weak-power laser beam determines the exact location of the target, and then switches to maximum power mode, disabling the guidance system or burning out the gunner’s eyes.
Well, how? Smacks of delirium? Feels like REN-TV style? I thought so too, for several days I walked in meditations, occasionally shouting: “Yes, this can not be!”. And I brought weighty arguments to myself, they say, yes, our army is not the one that 10 years ago, and the SCO, the CSTO, and the BRICS for some reason have been created. Yes, and our intelligence works well. And saboteurs, whom I imagined polluting sources of water or spilling anthrax there. Then, after some time, an article appears on the VO, how the Chinese relate to Russians. And this is another plus in favor of the unreality of the war between China and Russia. Well, a country that wants to seize the territory of another country cannot (analogies with the Crimea are not appropriate here) just take the troops out of the way like this and send troops to fight ... you still need to prepare the people somehow. How, for example, is hysteria going on in the West? Or even how Hitler prepared everyone for the “liberation” war? But this impact is extremely important. Well, you know that without me.
And on the June holiday there was a transfer of Besogon TV Mikhalkov NS, and there he talks about the war between Russia and China during the New Year holidays. I think many people watched this issue and made conclusions:
Fearfully? Very ... Really? Is complete. And it's hard not to agree with the arguments, it seems. And how everything is signed by the minute. Ah, the brave Chinese special forces. Just think, the whole of Khabarovsk was not woken up by helicopters. And the people then we both died! No need to work, not even the police! No random onlookers. All right with them. Our military is full of profane ... even in their own fighting places they are busy with everything, but only not in service. But this is only a scenario. Good. Suppose China has developed success, and the scenario that Mikhalkov told it turned out to be real ... And then what? What gave it to China?
Summit of the Heads of the SCO member states
And it gave, in fact, except for head problems, nothing. For the whole world, China is now the aggressor number 1. And such a big number. Now, and God forbid, Moscow plays a kind of intermediary between Delhi and Beijing. After all, India and China are geopolitical opponents. Who will guarantee that Delhi will not be untied, and they will not attack China in response to the aggression against Russia? There is no one to hold the two geopolitical adversary giants with a large population that make up half the Earth from the meat grinder between each other. The USA will only warm their hands on this and will contribute in every possible way to this. Yes, now there may be secret non-aggression pacts, mutual assistance in case of an attack by 3 countries. But if by Mikhalkov, it will not work.
So, new northern territories must now be mastered. And make a huge infusion there. Projects of more than one decade, serious money. But, I think, there will be no problems ... External contacts. And who will be in contact with the country that has launched an open war? China is not the United States, and does not hold half the world for a soft yuan. Technological development and industry. Well, yes, Vostochny’s cosmodrome, advanced development territories, and aircraft factories, which keep secret documentation for T-50 airplanes, will be captured. Even scientists are not needed ... well, if someone stays behind the golden gingerbread. And what about the people? And they will not need people. The male population is either annihilated or transferred to the status of “non-citizens” with no rights whatsoever. Only work as slaves. With the female half, I think you yourself know what will happen ... Yes, there are definitely prospects, but the prospects to face such countries as India or South Korea + Japan + USA without international support, China clearly does not want. So who will give it, if you are a clear aggressor? And to whom should I give it now? Pakistan? Or African republics? And if you run into all geopolitical opponents at once ??? And no matter how inviting the endless forests of taiga are almost without a population, the risk of remaining China without international support will be great. They will not be able to fight with the whole world.
PS And what will happen next in the rest of Russia? There, everyone will sprinkle ashes on their heads. Maybe a revolution will happen ... and there will be no our country.