The amount of informational materials is simply overwhelming, even the laziest journalist or blogger has gotten into trouble on this topic. And everyone is trying to predict the development of the situation, and everyone is waiting for something extraordinary. And there will be nothing. Strategic deadlock. The world forces here have collided and come into balance, although this practically does not suit any of the players. The most ridiculous topic: “Will Putin give up the Donbass?” Those who ask this question have simply not well studied the psychology and “style of play” of the Russian president.
He is very reluctant to go to risky enterprises, but, as a rule, having got involved in something like that, he does not retreat. And here, there is practically no place for him to retreat: the discharge of Donbas by the “collective Bandera” will be sharply negatively assessed in Russia (political stability can be completely disrupted) and undermine the international prestige of Moscow. The funny thing is that the West has absolutely nothing to offer Russia in return. Well, they will remove the sanctions, and in a couple of years they will again impose (under the specious pretext).
There are no political reasons for such a decision. They are not visible. In fact, Mr. Putin took a great position - a position that absolutely does not suit anyone. Neither patriots, nor Westerners, nor foreign "partners." As for the “rush to Kharkov” and the big Novorossia: it's not customary to talk about it somehow, but we and the Donbas have had big political problems with local leaders, and everything is not so “chocolate”. Even in the face of frank aggression from Kiev. What would happen if Russian troops were brought in from Kharkov to Odessa, I’m even afraid to make plans.
The Ukrainian economy is falling "fast jack", housing and communal services prices soar, but the growth of pro-Russian sentiment is not seen there. This is in the complete absence of "Russian occupation." In theory, Ukrainians should increasingly hate the West and turn to Russia. However. We do not observe anything like this. By the way, I don’t know why. Take the same Saakashvili - he came to Odessa as a US protege. But this is our native Soviet-Artek Mishiko. And with another turn of events he could have come to Odessa with Russian tanks... Only, I'm afraid, would have met him in a completely different way. The same Mishiko, the same ties ... He in every way mocks at the inhabitants of Odessa, but they tolerate it. If he came from Russia, then the protests would be immeasurable (throughout Ukraine).
In fact, Ukrainians see us as enemies, and Americans as their masters. What kind of political diversion is possible here is not clear to me. Ukraine leaves us to the “third world”, but leaves ... In military terms, the Ukrainian army (like the entire state) is gradually falling apart and degrading. War is always very expensive. In 2014, they had a chance today not. The “state facility” is getting weaker, plundered more and more, the shells are over, people are tired. And the very unity of Ukraine causes more and more doubts. Late APU with the "victory". The rupture of cooperation with Russia killed the Ukrainian defense industry, and buy weapon and ammunition is expensive.
In general, I am personally waiting for the final collapse of Ukraine on the principality. And then there will be nobody to support the APU and no matter what. About this we observed in 1917 and 1991, and Ukraine is not the Republic of Ingushetia and not the USSR even once. There is such a shy hope. Any civilized society has a certain margin of safety, but it is not unlimited. Not at all unlimited.
The plan of the European Union was a genius to idiocy: forcing Russia to accept all its conditions for Ukraine. With the complete banderization of the Crimea and the Donbass and the continuation of full-fledged financing of Kiev from Moscow, directly and indirectly. Looks like they really believed it. In principle, Putin likes to negotiate, and it was perfectly possible to agree on something reasonable with him. It's already too late. The Minsk agreements really turned out to be a multistage trap: Ukraine sabotages everything and is not going to change anything, but this “de facto” means non-return of the Donbass. That is, it is impossible to remove sanctions from Russia because of its “non-compliance with the Minsk agreements”, but also the prospects for returning to Donbass are decreasing with each passing month. Just because Ukraine and Donbass are moving in very different directions. There were always contradictions, now they are revealed.
Today, Kiev and Donetsk are absolutely incompatible both ideologically and politically. They can not exist in one state. By the way, this is exactly the starting point for the collapse of Ukraine: Donetsk / Lugansk took the blow of the Supreme Court of Ukraine on themselves. And Ukraine has no more serious reserves - everything burned down in the Donbass, but it was not possible to return the Donbass. The process of "building" a united Ukraine came to a standstill. In a kind way, they would “drive” to the Crimea and Donbass, but too much was invested in the propaganda of the “united Krajina” ... Ukraine is very aggressive in its essence: in an intelligent way, they would be able to separate areas where they like Bandera and build their own life, but they started a war.
The process has begun, and the “Ukrainian project” is essentially destroyed. Russia blocked Ukrainian transit trade and imposed an embargo on Ukrainian goods. The stupid situation, when we financed the “Ukrainianship” hostile to us at our own expense, finally ended. Why hostile? France and Germany may not have the warmest feelings for Moscow, but for their existence, hatred of Russia is not necessary for them. Ukraine stands on the hatred of the "Muscovites". This is a completely artificial, “vampire” project. A vampire cannot live without the blood of his victim, but he does not begin to love her. And the relationship "normalized." And you thought?
Those who like to talk about the "fraternal Ukrainian people" can in no way explain the paradoxical behavior of this very people and their fierce hatred of the Russians. Not to the Poles, the Turks or the Germans (which would be understandable), namely to the Russians. Even in Hitler's Germany there were great psychological problems with the planning of an attack on Switzerland. The reason is not neutrality, but the overwhelming German language of it. There was Hitler and the Gestapo, and not the Security Service and Poroshenko. And yet it was precisely the questions. And in "fraternal" Ukraine, hatred of Russians exists as an official ideology. And in the Russia-Ukraine relationship, everything finally fell into place, the horizon was cleared.
I do not recall something of the split and contradictions in Ukraine among politicians and businessmen with respect to the “eastern neighbor”. There was no “pro-Russian party” there. In the winter of 2013 / 14, this pus simply spilled out. We in Russia cannot understand in any way that if people, for example, live in Kiev or Dnepropetrovsk and speak Russian, this does not mean that we will agree easily with them. Any dictatorship, you know, is conditional enough and must rely on the support of a significant part of the population. So, millions of Ukrainians approve of the ATO and the “cleansing” of the Donbass. And what should we do about it?
In general, the conflict around Donbass is interesting enough from the point of view that ordinary viewers see such things, which usually remain “behind the scenes”. The artists went to the hall, the policy went to the masses ... In theory, Putin, Merkel, Hollande were to meet in February 2014 and grind everything. For tightly closed doors. The result would be some kind of "rotten compromise." Why Merkel, Putin and Hollande? And they are all in Europe (and I am in Asia, and proud of it!), And they do not need war in their place of residence. But Putin "put in ignore." From here all troubles. Putin "harbored a grudge." But seriously, in the spring of 2014, all Europeans decided to drive Putin into a corner with a joint effort and presented him with an ultimatum. Hence, his very cautious game, and hence the complete “plug” in Ukraine as a result. In theory, the sanctions could be much tougher and many sought it.
That is, in the spring of 2014, European politicians did not think about what would happen to Ukraine, they thought about how to deal with Mr. Putin. It turned out funny in the end, is not it? Really funny. As a result, Europeans cannot just lift sanctions: this is a complete loss of face. The problem is: Ukraine is not so interesting for European business. And there is slowly growing pressure on European politicians over the lifting of sanctions. But they are completely deprived of freedom of maneuver: the Kiev comrades are inadequate and are not going to carry out any “Minsk agreements” in principle.
In general, yes, in the Donbass there was a war and tragedy, people died. But in general, following the results in Europe, a rather amusing political situation has developed, if you “understand a lot of perversions”. Once again they tried to turn off Russia from the European concert and solve the question of Ukraine without it. According to the results "everything is mixed up in the Oblonskys' house".
First: Putin will not retreat anywhere, forget. The idea that the Russian Federation "quietly" merges the Donbass, and the EU is withdrawing sanctions in response (that’s what our European friends and European enemies are now offering), Putin is not interested. Forget like a bad dream. But they have no other proposals.
Secondly: Ukraine is sick and tired of everyone. Poroshenko in Europe do not want to see. He really knocked them out and continues to enrage. Attitude towards Ukrainians continues to deteriorate. They certainly cannot admit this openly (neither of them).
Thirdly: in France, for example, a serious political crisis, and mass strikes, and enraged farmers. They are not up to Ukraine. The crisis in southern Europe has not gone away either, as has the migrant crisis. And like the cherry on the cake - Brexit ... And Britain was one of the three economic pillars of the EU. And now, the European bureaucrats also urgently need to redraw the budget. It’s not something that someone should be taken, someone should be expelled ... Someone from the “freeloaders”.
Fourthly: one of the trump cards of Germany, as a political leader of the European Union, was “special” relations with Russia. So, they are no more. No from the word at all. Many Europeans suddenly realized that all that Berlin could provide for them was an endless "war on the Eastern Front." Perhaps this is a German national idea, but it is very difficult to make it all-European. And the people jumped in different directions. And Merkel has so spoiled relations with Putin that, in principle, she cannot demonstrate something positive in this regard.
And now after Brexit, the situation becomes really interesting ... German politicians got too carried away with games in the east of Europe and forgot about the west ... And then such a zeal was drawn ... For us, of course, Ukraine is more interesting ... but for the EU and Germany. This is a catastrophe. This is a "tectonic shift in geopolitics." Drawing an analogy with historical events: "second front". The British demonstrated the classic of national geopolitics: “Britain does not have constant friends, but has constant interests ...” And again: “The enemy of Britain will always be the first strongest continental power ...”. And the Germans can now feel a little in the shoes of the Poles in the 39th or the French in the 40th ...
The idea is that resignation should be submitted not only to Cameron, but Merkel and Hollande. They are "discredited with particular cynicism." Britain firmly insisted on EU sanctions against Russia and immediately after the next extension, “dumped” from the European Union. You can not say anything, the Germans successfully podgadali with Donbas and sanctions ... Why do they need London? The main thing - Kramatorsk and Berdichev! The Germans (once again) led an openly anti-Russian policy, which now completely excludes the possibility of a compromise with Moscow. Too they are straightforward. And the conflict has gone too far. Especially got a “baby Hollande”: it was Britain who insisted on the cancellation of Mistral delivery ... It turned out to be funny, wasn't it? The British are able to (substitute "ally"). In fact, the proud Britons staged a “pretty fire in a brothel during a flood ...”. Honor and praise them! Nice to live when they — interesting time...
Thus, the political situation on the European continent is very complicated and it is unlikely to be able to unravel it, and it will not “settle” by itself. Some landmarks are completely lost, and to predict something now is pointless. Europe is most reminiscent of the very "Oblonsky house". There is something interesting ahead.