Military Review

Brexit: US Security Challenge (The National Interest, USA)

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Brexit: US Security Challenge (The National Interest, USA)



For 16 years, since the signing of the Treaty of Rome in 1957 by France, Germany, Italy, Belgium, the Netherlands and Luxembourg, and until 1973, the United Kingdom was not part of what was then called the European Economic Community. Britain was able to recover after World War II, although not quickly, while the Six, as they were then called, guaranteed the continent that the new war between Germany and France, similar to the 1870, 1914 and 1939 wars of the year, is more will not happen.

Another six years, from 1973 to Margaret Thatcher’s residence in Downing Street, 10, in 1979, were characterized by stagnation in the British economy, weakness of the trade unions holding the country by the throat. Membership in an organization then called the European Community brought no improvement in the lives of ordinary British citizens. It was those people who remembered the times that Thatcher came to power, when Great Britain was in the structure that became known as the European Union from 1993 of the year, made up the majority of supporters of the British exit from the EU. Of course, they were joined by others, mainly the population of Central and Northern England, the so-called "rusty belt" of the British Isles. In any case, from processes that have been going on for more than 30 years, starting from the 1957 year, it was concluded that being inside or outside the EU does not have a significant impact on the UK.

While it is completely impossible to predict what the consequences in the economic sphere will be for the exit of Great Britain from the European Union. In accordance with Article No. 50 of the Lisbon Treaty dated 2007 of the year (entered into force two years later), the UK has two years to withdraw from the European Union. It is unclear from which date it is to report these two years, since Article 50 of the agreement simply states that the country’s membership will be considered null and void from the moment the relevant agreement enters into force or, if it is absent, two years from the date of notification. When exactly the notification is supposed to be made is not specified. Moreover, the Council of Europe has the authority to extend the two-year term by agreement with the state going to leave the EU. In other words, it is completely unclear when exactly the UK will leave the EU, and under what conditions. Since both the UK and the EU are interested in minimizing the effect of the exit - the UK for the sake of mitigating the negative economic consequences, and the EU for the sake of preventing the collapse of the European process - many predict that the negotiation process will last for many years.

However, the security implications may come much faster, especially with regard to Britain, the US and NATO itself. The Scottish National Party, calling for Scottish independence and advocating, on the one hand, for EU membership, but on the other, against NATO membership, may again demand a referendum before the UK concludes negotiations with Brussels. If such a referendum takes place, and the Scots support independence, then the Royal Navy will lose the submarine base in Faslane, and the United States will lose the opportunity to use this base if necessary. In this situation, the British the fleet they will have to build a new base for submarines, and this company is not cheap and may entail the cessation of financing of other defense spending in the UK, unless funds for a new base, for example, in Davenport, are allocated from the money saved on Westminster’s break with Scotland.

Until the new base is built, if construction starts first, Washington will have to understand that the US Navy cannot count on using the base in Faslein, as used the base at Holy Loch until 1992, when the Cold War ended. Given the emergence of an aggressive Russia, which again made important what was called “Farrero-Icelandic frontier” (Greenland-Ireland-Uk Gap) during Scottish War passing through Scotland, the inability to use the base in Faslein cannot but cause us concern , UK and NATO in general.

Negotiations on the independence of Scotland, most likely, will be held in parallel with the lengthy negotiations between London and Brussels about the British withdrawal from the European Union. The Scots have already said that they will not insist on the elimination of the British base in Faslein before the 2020 year. Thus, Washington and London have some time to discuss ways to mitigate the influence of Scottish independence on their defensive positions. One possible solution could be the deployment of British Tridents at a base in Kings Bay in Georgia, where the Tridents of the Atlantic fleet are based. This will accelerate the transfer of additional US Tridents to the Third Fleet on the West Coast, as part of the long-discussed turn towards Asia.

Another possibility is to pay Scotland to continue using the base at Faslane. London and Washington could pay as much as the US pays for maintaining their bases in other countries. Given the negative economic consequences of Scottish independence — the separation movement was in effect when oil was twice as expensive as it is now, in addition, Edinburgh will lose subsidies from the UK - the Scots will need a source of money to keep the government afloat.

Despite this, it is very important that the Pentagon and the British Ministry of Defense develop a Plan B to deploy their armed forces in case Scotland does achieve independence. Four years will fly very quickly, and the details of such a Plan B require a long thorough discussion. Those responsible for the defense must admit that officials in London and Brussels hid their heads in the sand for too long over the possibility of Britain’s withdrawal from the European Union, incorrectly assuming that British citizens will never vote against EU membership. Experts and polls supported this opinion and were mistaken. The American and British military and their civilian leaders should keep this in mind when listening to experts and polls claiming that Scotland will never leave the UK.

Dov Zakheim was Deputy Secretary of Defense in the administration of US President George W. Bush and Assistant Deputy Secretary of Defense in the First and Second Administration of Ronald Reagan.
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http://nationalinterest.org/feature/how-brexit-challenges-us-security-16717
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  1. Joe stalin
    Joe stalin 27 June 2016 15: 59
    +6
    This is what! That's when Alaskaexit begins - then we'll talk.
    1. samoletil18
      samoletil18 27 June 2016 16: 07
      +7
      Zvezda has just reported that Erdogan has apologized for the downed plane and expressed condolences for the dead pilot. Without comment from me, I will still remember.
      1. krops777
        krops777 27 June 2016 16: 11
        +11
        Zvezda has just reported that Erdogan has apologized for the downed plane and expressed condolences for the dead pilot. Without comment from me, I will still remember.


        I will say with one well-known phrase "It's too late to drink Borjomi when the kidneys have failed"

        And also from the side of Erdogan this is the highest degree of hypocrisy, most likely the wind of free profits has weakened.
      2. Rus2012
        Rus2012 27 June 2016 16: 14
        +7
        Quote: samoletil18
        Erdogan apologized for the downed plane and condoled with the deceased pilot. Without comment from me, I will still remember.

        ... it just means that the farther backtracked and surrenders to Russia in the face of the threat of the dismemberment of Turkey (who declared the Powerful).
        Now our task is to accept surrender (or not to accept!) And include Turkey in our clip in the "Big Game"!
        1. sa-ag
          sa-ag 27 June 2016 16: 51
          +1
          Quote: Rus2012
          Now our task is to accept surrender

          If after that a Turkish tourist destination "suddenly" opens, then such an apology will be equal to buying an indulgence in the Middle Ages, shot down the plane, apologized and shot it down again ...
        2. Operator
          Operator 27 June 2016 16: 57
          +1
          The SCO's economic and political union with China, Russia, India and Pakistan is a great force (50 percent of the world's population, 75 percent of world GDP and over half of nuclear missile weapons).

          Among the participants of the recent SCO summit in Tashkent were representatives of Egypt, Iran, Saudi Arabia and, lo and behold, Israel (the latter is unofficial). Active interest in the SCO is shown by Japan, South Korea and unnamed European countries.

          So Turkey is in a hurry to catch the departing train.

          PS It is quite possible that it was with the creation of conditions for joining the SCO that the decision of the British government to hold a referendum on leaving the European Union was connected. Two years before the referendum, the investment center of the Rothschild financial clan was transferred from London to Hong Kong.
          1. HERMES
            HERMES 27 June 2016 17: 56
            +1
            Let's just say ... the collapse of the EU is fucking up all over the world quite seriously.
            Azerbaijan has already lost more than $ 1.5 billion just because the euro and pound crashed.
            1. Operator
              Operator 27 June 2016 18: 01
              0
              The ruble against the dollar has increased, however.

              To hell with him, with Azerbaijan, let him determine who he is friends with - Turkey or Russia.
              1. HERMES
                HERMES 27 June 2016 19: 04
                +1
                Quote: Operator
                The ruble against the dollar has increased, however.

                To hell with him, with Azerbaijan, let him determine who he is friends with - Turkey or Russia.


                So you want to say that Azerbaijan needs to send Turkey (whose population understand each other without translators (in fact, both Belarusians and Russians)) in one place and make friends only with Russia, which is an ally of Azerbaijan’s only enemy. Send the hell out of everyone else ... and then don't be surprised that Russia has no true allies except the army and navy.
                The infection of "exclusivity" spread to Russia ...
                1. APASUS
                  APASUS 27 June 2016 20: 58
                  0
                  Quote: HERMES
                  That is, you want to say that Azerbaijan needs to be sent to Turkey (whose population understands each other without translators (in fact, both Belarusians and Russians))

                  You somehow perceive everything literally
                  Quote: HERMES
                  to one place and make friends only with Russia, which is an ally of Azerbaijan’s only enemy.

                  You don’t need to be friends only with Russia, pursue a multi-vector policy where Russia will have a place. At the same time, you don’t notice the role of Russia after the last military clash in Karabakh.
                  Erdogan suggested that you go to the last and he will help you. You can consider it as help, or you can push it to war. At the same time, the leaders of Armenia and Azerbaijan were not discussing peace talks in Ankara. So who is pushing the Russians to war again?
                  Quote: HERMES
                  Send the hell out of everyone else ... and then don't be surprised that Russia has no true allies except the army and navy.

                  And where in the world do you see true allies in Turkey, the EU, the USA?
                  Erdogan invited you to join the family as a relative and they do not want to use you there?
                  All EU countries are equal, so it is declared on every pillar !!!!!!!!!!!!! And as soon as the UK showed a desire to enter the EU, an emergency rally was gathered where 6 countries entered "about a miracle" the Balts, Poland, were not included there, Romania.
                  How is it that all are equal ?????????????????? The fate of Europe can be decided only by strong states, and not hangers-on, but where is the union ????????????
                  Should you write about the USA?
                2. Weyland
                  Weyland 27 June 2016 22: 50
                  0
                  Quote: HERMES
                  Azerbaijan needs to send Turkey (whose population understand each other without translators (in fact, both Belarusians and Russians))


                  Language - not the main thing - admire at least ukrov, and Serbs and Croats generally speak the same language.
                  Azerbaijan, with the exception of very brief episodes, was part of Iran (where Azeri make up a third of the population, and Ayatollah - Ethnic Azeri!)- and now actively friends with Turkey, primarily against Iran (or are you really so afraid of Armenia? laughing)
                3. Weyland
                  Weyland 27 June 2016 22: 50
                  0
                  Quote: HERMES
                  Azerbaijan needs to send Turkey (whose population understand each other without translators (in fact, both Belarusians and Russians))


                  Language - not the main thing - admire at least ukrov, and Serbs and Croats generally speak the same language.
                  Azerbaijan, with the exception of very brief episodes, was part of Iran (where Azeri make up a third of the population, and Ayatollah - Ethnic Azeri!)- and now actively friends with Turkey, primarily against Iran (or are you really so afraid of Armenia? laughing)
      3. GSH-18
        GSH-18 27 June 2016 19: 52
        0
        Brexit: US Security Challenge (The National Interest, USA)

        All that is not under the control of the mattress, all this is a threat to the mattress belay Faken sew, weak-core mattress! bully
    2. Sergej1972
      Sergej1972 27 June 2016 16: 15
      +2
      Well this is unlikely. Apparently, most Alaskans are ardent provincial US patriots. Yes, and, in fact, the exit of states from the United States is prohibited.
      1. Joe stalin
        Joe stalin 27 June 2016 17: 01
        0
        some time ago, a petition for the annexation of Alaska to the Russian Federation gained the necessary 25000 votes for its consideration on the We the People website, but the White House removed it from the vote.
    3. lelikas
      lelikas 27 June 2016 17: 03
      +8
      Quote: Joe Stalin
      This is what! That's when Alaskaexit begins - then we'll talk.

      I did not understand - where are the sanctions, where is the international isolation, where are the national battalions pulling toward the English Channel?
    4. Blondy
      Blondy 27 June 2016 17: 49
      +1
      IMHO, I quote
      Blondy RU June 25, 2016 10:16 | Welt: The question of leaving the EU can be raised in five more countries
      Let it not leave the EU, the people simply did not take into account all the consequences. They, for example, will not want to split off independent Scotland and Northern Ireland, who want to remain in the EU.

      There, already under the petition for a second referendum, 3.2 million people signed up, i.e. approximately one in ten of those eligible to vote (all extraneous people accumulated a total of 70 thousand in excess). Although Cameron has already cast out a second Brexit
      David Cameron rules out second EU referendum after Brexit
      Dismissing a popular petition, Prime Minister's spokesperson says another vote is 'not remotely on the cards' (http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-what-is-eu-refe
      rendum-petition-david-cameron-a7105596.html)
      1. Operator
        Operator 27 June 2016 18: 07
        +1
        Currently, Cameron is speaking in parliament with an action plan to formalize Britain’s exit from the EU.
        Campaign, Cameron at 100 percent fulfilled the order of British capital and competently spread out the supporters of maintaining Britain’s membership in the European Union.
        The pound began to regain its position against the dollar.
        We are waiting for the application of Britain to join the SCO laughing
        1. Amurets
          Amurets 27 June 2016 23: 46
          0
          Quote: Operator
          The pound began to regain its position against the dollar.
          We are waiting for the application of Britain to join the SCO

          And this is a very real option. The British have long shown interest in Asian markets, and since India joined the SCO and owns a stake in British industry, I do not exclude such a development.
      2. Nyrobsky
        Nyrobsky 27 June 2016 21: 32
        0
        Quote: Blondy
        There, already under the petition for a second referendum, 3.2 million people signed up, i.e. approximately one in ten of those eligible to vote (all extraneous people accumulated a total of 70 thousand in excess). Although Cameron has already cast out a second Brexit

        As I understand it, no matter how much it’s signed now, the results will be used only in the direction that is most beneficial to the authorities. And there is always a reason and an excuse for ignoring or taking the results of the referendum as a basis.
        Well-directed and implemented script.
        Look at YouTube what N. Starikov says about this - about Britain’s exit from the EU. Very interesting ...
    5. Persistent
      Persistent 27 June 2016 18: 58
      0
      The worst thing for Britain and the United States is that Scotland has a nuclear submarine base in England. In the event of the separation of Scotland and the secession from NATO, England and after it the United States will lose a convenient and strategically important point of basing its nuclear forces. And this, in turn, will undermine the development of British military programs: it will be necessary to build a new military base, the cost of which can surpass any savings from leaving the European Union. As a result, England, the USA, and NATO will suffer.
  2. Same lech
    Same lech 27 June 2016 16: 00
    +8
    We all remember referenda in GREECE and the NETHERLANDS.
    TSIPRASA was broken in BRUSSELS, and they started attacking the Netherlands there and the will of the people of these countries was lost.
    In the case of the UK, the same thing can happen again ... we will wait until real progress begins and then we will see who is who.
    1. poquello
      poquello 27 June 2016 16: 06
      +3
      Quote: The same Lech
      We all remember referenda in GREECE and the NETHERLANDS.
      TSIPRASA was broken in BRUSSELS, and they started attacking the Netherlands there and the will of the people of these countries was lost.
      In the case of the UK, the same thing can happen again ... we will wait until real progress begins and then we will see who is who.

      yes, how to yell that they have a referendum, so they are the first, but how to fulfill the will of the people, so do not care about the referendum
      1. Vladimirets
        Vladimirets 27 June 2016 16: 51
        +2
        Quote: poquello
        and do not care referendum

        As they say, it is of a corny-shy "advisory character". recourse
    2. Maksus
      Maksus 27 June 2016 16: 35
      +4
      Yes, no one has broken the Greek, it's the election, lie a lot, anyway, no one will do anything with you before the end of the term ...
  3. The comment was deleted.
  4. poquello
    poquello 27 June 2016 16: 01
    +3
    even Zacheim argues as if Scotland's exit is already a fact
    1. Sergej1972
      Sergej1972 27 June 2016 16: 13
      +5
      I think that not all Scots who voted to preserve Britain’s EU membership are necessarily supporters of Scottish independence.
      1. Vladimirets
        Vladimirets 27 June 2016 16: 54
        +1
        Quote: Sergej1972
        I think that not all Scots who voted to preserve Britain’s EU membership are necessarily supporters of Scottish independence.

        Moreover, the independence of Scotland does not mean that it cannot be admitted to NATO in an accelerated manner, and for Britain - to lose the base there. So the problem in the article is far-fetched.
    2. Vladimir 23rus
      Vladimir 23rus 27 June 2016 16: 20
      0
      even Zacheim argues as if Scotland's exit is already a fact
      The fact is not a fact, and the hope of extra money for this case never dies. laughing
  5. ingenera
    ingenera 27 June 2016 16: 03
    +3
    A little where what happened is a challenge to US security. In my opinion this is paranoia on a national scale
  6. Rus2012
    Rus2012 27 June 2016 16: 03
    +4
    Quote: Dov S. Zakheim
    Brexit: US Security Challenge (The National Interest, USA)

    ... comrades from the "regional committee because of a puddle" understand perfectly -
    Brexit - really a threat to national security neocons!

    But, this is just one tactical move in the global "Great Game". The Britons, that is, the Naglo-Saxons, were the first to escape from the sinking ship:
    British Lord Jacob Rothschild in March 2015 outlined three possible options for countries and peoples out of the global crisis of industrial society. It:

    or 1. full-scale world war of arms;
    or 2. slow painful reforms with sanctions, local conflicts and saber rattling;
    either 3. transition to a new currency world.

    The third way to the New Monetary World (p.3) is played by the alliance of the Windsor, Rothschilds and Chinese Dragons.
    Problem: recounting world wealth from zeros of the US petrodollar to ounces of metallic gold and carats of precious stones. By squeezing the Anglo-Saxons to their “lonely island” and drawing the Teutons (high-tech Germany) into service of the Chinese Dream.
    Purpose: creation of the Economic Belt of the New Silk Road as a zone of prosperity with China and the logistic Sea Silk Road of the 21st century from China to Germany “one belt, one road”. The game is played on strong maps of the natural values ​​of gold, drugs, and the powerful commodity economy of a 21st century Chinese factory.
    1. cap
      cap 27 June 2016 16: 57
      +4
      Quote: Rus2012
      The idea: the creation of the Economic Belt of the New Silk Road as a zone of prosperity with China and the logistic Sea Silk Road of the 21st century from China to Germany “one belt, one road”. The game is played on strong maps of the natural values ​​of gold, drugs, and the powerful commodity economy of a 21st century Chinese factory.


      This is the USA headache. The most.
  7. sub307
    sub307 27 June 2016 16: 04
    0
    Well, we, in turn, have to "thank" Mr. Cameron for the "headache" organized for the United States and NATO as a whole.
    1. krops777
      krops777 27 June 2016 16: 18
      +4
      Well, we, in turn, have to "thank" Mr. Cameron for the "headache" organized for the United States and NATO as a whole.


      Why should we thank him, for the United States it is beneficial, a weak pound, not the stability of the world economy, all that the dollar would grow stronger and even more other countries would buy it.
  8. Army soldier2
    Army soldier2 27 June 2016 16: 05
    +3
    I think that the fate of the base in Faslane is lost against the backdrop of a huge range of tasks that need to be solved on a civilized divorce from the EU. I believe that the very time of withdrawal from the European Union, oddly enough, will be beneficial to both parties. The UK will be able to ignore the new, or even old, installations of Brussels, and the EU will receive an annual contribution of Anglo-Saxons (or part of it) in the amount of 8 billion euros. And this process can last decades.
    The results, I emphasize, of a possible referendum in Scotland are not predictable. And not the fact that they want independence.
    The base can be rented - and one is good, and the other.
    So, Mr. Dov Zacheim drives the snowstorm. Apparently, a long time ago they did not contact him with an interview.
  9. Pitot
    Pitot 27 June 2016 16: 09
    +7
    But why are other people's referenda? Remember the referendum on the preservation of the USSR. These lice did not give a damn about the decision of the People and surrendered to the USSR ..... until now and for a long time Russia (as a successor) has not recovered to a normal level. The humps are fucking ...
  10. Asadullah
    Asadullah 27 June 2016 16: 13
    +2
    Experts and polls supported this opinion and made a mistake.


    Haha. Keyword of the article. Aren't "experts" often wrong? I played through in my head more or less significant things over the past five or six years, well, not a single accurate forecast of "experts". But we are talking about a policy that should be predictable by default. What happened? Everything rested on the lie factor. Lying has become a geopolitical tool, one of the most important in Murdoch's concept. In the end, lies turned out to be the only weapon of globalization and penetrated from the geopolitical realm into everything. Social, economic and even scientific. The formula, in which an unproven lie is true, became a placebo for all ailments of society. Here comes the practical work. To be honest, Asadullah is personally surprised. According to my calculations, the system should have worked for another ten years ...
  11. Banishing liberoids
    Banishing liberoids 27 June 2016 16: 22
    +2
    Everything threatens America, even if it doesn’t mean much to them. Well then, let them bomb Britain! Maybe it’s easier.
  12. prior
    prior 27 June 2016 16: 31
    +1
    Of course a security challenge! Following the example of Great Britain, a referendum will be held by residents of Alaska, followed by accession to Chukotka. Referendum in texas with joining mexico and off we go.
    End to the United States of America. Long live Brexit - the bright future of all mankind!
  13. lexx2038
    lexx2038 27 June 2016 16: 43
    0
    But what! The money was taken aback, well, if it’s threatening, then you need to drop a couple of bombs there, send the baking donors ... you have to be consistent.
  14. gladysheff2010
    gladysheff2010 27 June 2016 17: 51
    +1
    Quote: Vladimirets
    Moreover, the independence of Scotland does not mean that it cannot be admitted to NATO in an accelerated manner, and for Britain - to lose the base there. So the problem in the article is far-fetched.

    Well, probably not quite, because the question arises: why were the former Western politicians wise enough (or informed?), And are the current lasses sharpening, but not good at business? Apparently, the habit is to sit in social networks and get information from politicians from there absent in the old days. instructive.
  15. voyaka uh
    voyaka uh 27 June 2016 18: 27
    +1
    "challenge to US security (The National Interest, USA)" ////

    Some strange and them conclusions.
    England was already the most faithful ally of the United States, and now it will be
    even closer.
    With the base of submarines sorted out - a maximum of a couple of years, the British submarines will be
    based in the USA. Scotland is still an English-speaking country, even independent
    she will be with her.

    But in the EU, the US influence will fall. Through England, the States often shoved their
    solutions.
    And the States had hopes that the EU would raise its military budgets by 1-1,5%,
    and the States will switch to the Far East: there China is their new headache.
    And now it’s not known how.
    As if the block of English-speaking countries will strengthen, and NATO - will weaken.
  16. demiurg
    demiurg 27 June 2016 19: 37
    0
    If England dumps from the EU’s EU, then it’s so profitable for her. We are now wondering at the coffee grounds how, why, why. In about 10 years, an event will occur that will clarify everything. But judging by the fact that it is financially detaching itself from Europe, remaining with it in the military bloc, it is necessary to wait for economic shocks.
  17. Wolka
    Wolka 28 June 2016 05: 39
    0
    the Yankees sniffed right, the referendum in England once again showed everyone that England is a blotter in international politics and no ally, always in any situation, especially when it smells of fried, it focuses primarily on its interests, and not corporate, and even more so not allied, world history Conflicts to this are vivid confirmation ...
  18. Vladimir Anatolyevich
    Vladimir Anatolyevich 28 June 2016 09: 59
    +1
    Britain will never let anyone go just like that, especially with a submarine base, especially if you have to pay for rent. With its state structure (constitutional monarchy), the country is a veiled monarchy in its purest form (there is no constitution in Britain. One can say they live by concepts), and the monarchy is an empire. The exit is most likely aimed at re-subordination, that is, the restructuring of the EU according to new rules. And the Americans have nothing to do with it. Sanctions do not help, the Turks did not drag Russia into the war, Syria resists (God forbid) ... This is a long game ... although it is not very profitable for the dollar ... the debt is growing, interest is dripping, there is practically no one to rob! Now who has a "breath" is stronger. Although to be honest, they have never played, do not play, and they will definitely not start playing!