When preparing analytical materials, I always find great interest in analyzing the results historical events and their projection onto modern geopolitical processes, for, as Cervantes said: "History is a treasure house of our deeds, a witness of the past, an example and a lesson for the present, a warning for the future."
In the course of the continuous process of imposing Western sanctions on Russia over the last couple of years, it would be nice to recall the establishment of various sanctions in the world on a visible historical horizon and, on this basis, to identify patterns and consequences.
When economic pressure on enemies was first applied, we do not know, but this is definitely not the idea of yesterday’s day. However, it is reliably known that in 432 BC, on the eve of the Peloponessian war between ancient Greek Athens and Sparta, the city of Megara offered political asylum to fugitive Athenian slaves, which naturally curtailed the authority of the king of the Athenians Pericles, which is why he forbade Megara merchants to trade in the jurisdiction of the Athens Maritime Union, which includes half of ancient Greece. After some time, trade sanctions affected both the small megarian economy and the large Athenian economy. Following these events, the head of the formidable Sparta Corinth decided to stand up for the Meghars in order to demonstrate the bipolarity of the ancient Greek civilization in establishing the rules of the political game, which led to the great Peloponnesian war that lasted about 30 years, and the victory in which was won by the defendant account of well-organized military power. This example for the first time clearly clarified the main point: sanctions are effective only when they are applied to a state that can be defeated on the battlefield.
Now I propose to go back to the 20th century, when the United States of America, having forgotten this principle, decided to test the strength of the Soviet ideology and the Russian spirit. After the Great October Socialist Revolution, especially after the consolidation of Comrade Stalin’s power in 1924, Soviet Russia needed a huge amount of equipment and technology to create the means of production and building socialism in order to reduce its dependence on the export of raw materials. To prevent the Great Leader’s plan in 1925, Western countries, led by the United States, made a seemingly totally irrational decision not to take gold from us as payment for the technologies, machines and equipment we needed. Only oil, timber and grain were recognized as means of payment, and by the year 1930 only grain was accepted. Continuing the chronology, in the '32 year, the States impose a total ban on the import of goods from the USSR, but already in 1934, the West again began to accept our gold in the calculations. How so? What was behind the series of these unexplainable requirements and conditions? What was the meaning of such sanctions against us? After all, design without intent is fiction.
So, let me remind you that in the 1929 year in Russia, not only did the civil war actually end, and the political feuds stopped, but the first five-year plan began. For the time being, the West is preparing economically, without military intervention, to strangle Soviet Russia. The first step towards this was taken in advance - a refusal to accept gold from the USSR, which forced Russia to extreme economic vulnerability when supplying its raw materials (oil, wood and especially grain) abroad, which was now the only source of foreign exchange in the country. Then, after the expulsion of Trotsky from the USSR, we are dealt another blow: an embargo is imposed on the purchase of Soviet goods by the West — in fact, the import of our timber and oil products, that is, everything that is paid for deliveries of western machines and machines for the destroyed Soviet economy, stops. We look at the dates: the first five-year plan begins in '29. In a strange way, over the next three years, all future “allies” in the fight against Hitler introduced the embargo. But it remains interesting that, at first, the West refused to accept our gold as payment, and then everything else that was so necessary for them ... except for grain!
This behavior is clearly illogical. At that time, the Great Depression was raging there (it began just in 1929 year). In the US, overproduction of various products, including grain. The US government destroys its wheat in huge batches, condemning its own people to hunger in order to increase demand and, accordingly, prices, and immediately intends to take from Russia only grain as payment for its machines instead of gold, oil and other much more needed US raw materials. Englishmen behave even more stupidly: while the USSR was the main customer of English machine tool builders - in 1932, 80% of the export of machines from England went to the Soviet Union - the British leadership did everything to make these deliveries impossible, refusing to accept payments for machines only gold, but also England's necessary timber, ore, coal and oil. Everything except the grain, which the British could buy from the States much cheaper. But such a policy was pursued only to ensure that the Bolsheviks took the grain from the peasants, initiating mass hunger, which, in turn, could lead to an internal explosion and a shift of power. Thus, the leadership of the USSR was faced with a choice: either to abandon the restoration of industry (capitulation to the West), or to continue industrialization, leading to a terrible internal crisis. Whatever Stalin chooses - in any case, the West remains the winner. In chess, this is called zugzwang.
However, Joseph Vissarionovich and his entourage decide to go right through. From the summer of 1929, the collectivization of agriculture begins. The state collects grain and sends it to the West, but not at all in order to starve a part of the country's population, but because there is no other option to pay for supplies of equipment other than the organization of joint farming in the village. All the hope of Stalin was a new crop, which is too small due to the succession of droughts. The USSR cannot buy food either for gold (the golden blockade) or for the currency (an embargo of our goods). Attempts are being made to urgently bring grain from Persia, where they are willing to accept gold, but the authorities do not have time, and a catastrophe happens, the same one that in Ukraine is now called the “Famine”. However, the hunger of 1932 – 33, which was carefully organized by the West, did not give the desired result, since the Bolsheviks retained power and continued industrialization. During these years, a lot of people died, but Stalin managed to consolidate his position in the country's leadership, after which the West was again ready to take oil, timber and precious metals from Russia. Naturally, in 1934, grain exports from the USSR completely stopped. The economic measures under the all-European weakness did not work, and only the military remained, so it is not surprising that Adolf Hitler came to power in 1933 in Germany, openly writing about his aggressive goals in the boundless Russian plains.
From these historical data, it becomes obvious that the famine in 30-ies was provoked by the West in order to overthrow the existing power in the USSR. They managed to kill millions of people, but not to overthrow the steel Stalin. For this, Hitler had to be raised to try to crush the Russians with the hands of the Germans. But, having filled the edge of the edge, the States imposed very effective sanctions against small Japan, depriving it of American oil. This was done in order to find a reason to join the war and finally include Japan in its zone of influence. To this end, the attack on Pearl Harbor 7 December 1941 of the year was provoked. Here everything was done correctly: Japan did not have sufficient resources to wage any lengthy war. At one of the meetings of the military and government leaders of Japan, Colonel Ivakuro gave the following comparative data on available resources from the United States and Japan. Steel - 20: 1, oil - 100: 1, coal - 10: 1, aircraft - 5: 1, warships - 2: 1, labor - 5: 1. The overall ratio of the potential of the United States and Japan - 10: 1.
After Germany occupied France, Japan used the entire military infrastructure in French colonial Indochina. In response, the US imposed partial sanctions against Japan, freezing accounts and assets, and for importing each batch of goods, including petroleum products from the United States, Japan was obliged to obtain a separate license, which was extremely problematic. Since the Land of the Rising Sun was almost completely dependent on oil imports from the United States and Russia, it was inconvenient, unprofitable and humiliating for it, especially given the militaristic ambitions in the Pacific Ocean. However, Roosevelt did not want a total ban on trade with Japan, so that "the stigma remained in the gun." Nevertheless, the Americans succeeded in supervising the ambitions of the Japanese and provoking aggression against themselves through the issuance of licenses. In the summer of 1941, the Japanese oil reserves were reduced by 28 000 tons every day. According to Admiral Nagano, "the fleet burns 400 tons of oil per hour." Therefore, the goal of the Japanese command was extremely obvious: the early seizure of oil resources of the Dutch East Indies (Indonesia), as well as other mineral resources of Malaysia and the Philippines. And for this it was necessary to neutralize ... US Pacific Fleet! To this sacrifice of Japan, Adolf Aloizovich was kindly short-sighted, because the consequences of the attack on Pearl Harbor are well known to all: Japan’s military benefits were insignificant compared to the benefits to the United States from their entry into the war.
If we draw some historical parallels, a number of interesting features emerge. The first. Japan after the American sanctions gained self-confidence, letting itself provoke and organizing Pearl Harbor, of which Roosevelt naturally knew in advance, since the attack was good for America. Japan was framed and driven into a corner, as a result of which it became an American military and economic experimental rat, which is still, despite its mental political encryption. In the situation with the Land of the Rising Sun, the United States did everything clearly, according to the theory of imposing sanctions.
The second. Soviet Union. Borrowing foreign experience, raising the national spirit, implementing the idea of universal social justice, and, most importantly, maximizing the realization of one’s own industrial potential — all this made it possible to defend one’s honor and protect the Russian civilization model, even despite the famine provoked by the outside. The union was great and impenetrable because it was based on ideological infrastructural power.
Third. Ancient Greece. Yes, the Peloponnesian War ended in 30 years with the victory of Sparta, but a well-organized and disciplined military and social structure decayed a few decades later, absorbing the Athenian democratic parasitic way of life. The Spartans could not resist the luxury and free-thinking, giving themselves to the subsequent beating of Macedonia and Persia.
The fact is that all the cases described in world history were based on contradictions of hegemony, which were always built on a real basis, and not on the sale of raw materials. Accordingly, all enemies can be repulsed only by a real product that was created by the population of the national education itself - be it weapon, machine tools or cattle. However, the main condition for this is a high degree of commitment of national elites to that goal, which reflects the subjective true path of the state in a certain historical period of its development. Let us call this an ideology that, in the opinion of any other people, may be erroneous, but the desire for its purification, preservation and security forms the impenetrable national spirit. At the same time, a pure state ideology can be based solely on the desire for independence and independence from other states in all senses, and various sanctions like the current ones in a “healthy” state just play a positive role.
Unfortunately, import substitution in today's Russia occurs only on our television screens. The country's leadership is spending huge amounts on a PR campaign for building new facilities and launching production, instead of building at least one necessary factory for everyone to make any progressive change in exchange for the Chinese. I'm not talking about medical equipment and cars. We are told that abruptly the “ultra-modern” T-50 aircraft and the T-90 tank appeared, but at the same time, the people for some reason fly only on Boeing and Airbus. "Carcass", "Yaki" and "Ana" somehow gradually disappeared into oblivion.
I agree that Tanks and fighters, of course, will be useful to us in everyday life, simplify our lives, or at least help to gain protection from the visible enemy, but they certainly will not help in gaining independence from the invisible enemy, which still regulates the output of Russian rubles. The main thing is not to burst like the USSR, focusing only on the military industry. And I can’t but doubt the novelty of the technologies, knowing that according to the old drawings we couldn’t re-master the production of the An-124 Ruslan. And about the ekranoplans and even more so no one remembers, despite the fact that the military and civilian advantages of this technique remain indisputable.
Structural projects and systemic changes aimed at our well-being, economic independence and the prosperity of Russian civilization are needed. Anatoly Wasserman in his book “Acute Strategic Failure” very time gives examples of Stalin's projects to change the flow of rivers, the construction of forest belts, the massive opening of various research institutes and the construction of nuclear power plants. Of course, there are “strategists” who will not agree with this, while remaining true to the word “Fatherland”. For the sake of such stupid patriots of Russia who focus only on our weapons and geographic power, I recognize that only the Siberian Federal District in 5,2 million km2 and C-400 can be made to choke the entire European Union with an area of only 4,3 million km2. Well, then what? Are we becoming stronger, richer, happier?
While in Russia economic growth and the fight against corruption remain only a television screen, behind which the orgy of the traitors of Russian civilization continues on the bones of our ancestors, there can be no talk of happiness or universal well-being. Without our patriots knowing the basics of political economy, without focusing on applied science and culture, without understanding their exemplary structure and the goals of supranational financial structures, it will always remain a mystery to why the opinion of such tiny countries like Luxembourg, Liechtenstein or Vatican, and how to deal with it.
God forbid Russia to face the same sanctions as the USSR — in the almost complete absence of production of means of production, that is, machine tools, and in the absence of an understanding of the need to establish such production, possible Western sanctions to restrict the supply of not only drilling and defense, but all high-tech Industrial equipment can be overwhelming. The same applies to the one-sided development of agriculture in Russia on the western technological base, so we eat "excellent Russian cheese made on Italian equipment." Stalin felt such a threat on himself, and therefore he climbed out of his skin, seeking technological independence, because the machine can make both an airplane, and sausage, and a pram.
We must remember one thing: until we finally destroy our industrial potential, we will suck oil. And during this process, if we, the Russian People, do not change or change anything, we will weaken so much that we will not be able to protect ourselves, after which we will be split, divided, enslaved and reduced in number. It was precisely this that Hitler behind the scenes was trying to achieve, and that’s what the whole world’s own, as well as our own elite, that fifth column, is now thirsting for.