Modern Iraq as a collection of quasi-states

According to the Constitution of Iraq, the republic is a "union and free democratic state with a parliamentary system." However, the actual situation is far from constitutional ideals: it is far from a union state and not a single parliamentary one.

Modern Iraq as a collection of quasi-states

Modern Iraq is a collection of three quasi-states, into which the republic risks splitting in the medium term. Other meanings of “quasi-state” are “non-state territories” (English ungoverned territory), “territories not controlled by the state”, “gray zones”, “islands of transit statehood”, etc.

The first part to be considered is the Shiite territories (territories densely populated by Shiite Arabs);

The second “gray zone” is the Sunni territories (territories under the control of the Muslims of the Sunni wing);

The third quasi-state is Kurdish-controlled territories (including the autonomy of Iraqi Kurdistan), with a population of about 5,5 million people (17,5% of the total population of the country);

According to the Iraqi Constitution, the country's prime minister (constitutionally key position) is Shiite, the president is Kurdish, and the chairman of parliament is Sunni. This was the US demand, based on the principle of pluralism and the consensus of three ethno-religious communities of Iraqi society: Shiite Arabs, Sunni Arabs and Kurds.

The unspoken part can be called the territories controlled by the Islamic State Islamic Islamic Organization (ISIL).

The first two forces - the Sunni and Shiite wing - are in a state of a long-term fratricidal war for ensuring their political rights in Iraq and the truth of their persuasion.

Shiites of Iraq

Shiites are 10% of all Muslims in the world. The area of ​​their residence is the “Shiite belt” [1], the followers of this sense determine the absolute majority of the population of Iran, more than half of Iraq, a significant part of the Muslims of Azerbaijan, Lebanon, Yemen and Bahrain. Shiite Arabs in Iraq make up about 60% of the total population (about 20 million), for a long time they remained “second-rate people”, and only after the overthrow of the regime of Saddam Hussein (in the opinion of the author, the main Iraqi Sunni stories), the Shiites were able to feel part of the civil society of Iraq. An interesting fact: out of ten charges brought in court against Saddam Hussein, only one was chosen - the killing of 148 Shiites.

Today, Shiites can be safely called a serious political force in the Middle East. Iraqi Shiites hope and, in general, receive support from Shiite Iran (the vast majority of Iraqi Shiites receive their spiritual education in Iran). In addition, the south of Iraq, inhabited predominantly by Shiites, is adjacent to Iran, which has its own interests in the Persian Gulf (for this reason, repeated military conflicts occurred between Iraq and Iran, including the Iran-Iraq war of 1980-1988). Thus, Iran is playing the "Shiite card" for power in the Gulf. Another "card player" - the United States - keeps the Shiites on a leash, since their place of residence is assigned to the richest oil-bearing regions. A researcher at the Royal Institute of International Affairs in London, May Yamani, shortly after the overthrow of Saddam Hussein, wrote: “Now that the dust of the war in Iraq has settled, it became clear that Shiites were unexpected victors. The West has realized that the location of the main oil reserves coincide with those areas in which Shiites make up the majority - Iran, Eastern Province of Saudi Arabia [2], Bahrain and Southern Iraq. ” Since the withdrawal of American troops in 2011, Shiites have again taken up weapon. The new Rubicon was crossed on 30 on April of this year, when, under the leadership of Shiite Muqtada al-Sadr, influential in Iraq (known as the Emir of Basra, named for the country's main port), a crowd broke into the building of the highest legislative body, beat deputies, defeated the premises, held a picnic on the Celebration Square, after which, left the “International Zone” - the very one that is officially considered the safest place in Iraq. The reason was the demand for reform. In turn, Iraqi Prime Minister Haider Al-Abadi promised to replace some officials in the Government and carry out anti-corruption reforms, however, numerous parties continually slow down the reformation process. Currently, Shiite groups are developing a plan to create their own independent theocratic Shiite state.

Sunni Iraq

The weakest link among the main groups of Iraq today are Sunnis (about 35% of the Muslim composition, 12 million people), they are localized in the “Sunni triangle” (see fig. 1, in its northern part - the city of Tikrit, the birthplace of Saddam Hussein) .

1 Figure - Sunni Triangle Area

An interesting Sunni saying is “kill Shiite - go to heaven”. Their oppressed position is due to several factors:

The reign of S. Hussein, which led to a negative attitude towards the Sunnis of Shiites and Kurds (against the latter, a massive genocide was carried out; as a result of the well-known operation Anfal, more than 182000 Kurds were killed).

The position of the "oppressed" people in relations with the American troops. Sunnis suffered maximum losses from the invasion of US troops, because, as mentioned above, the states adhere to the Shiite position. If during the regime of S. Hussein, the Sunnis largely ruled the country, after its overthrow they were on the other side of the barricades - in opposition.

It is the Sunnis who live in the zone of the absence of oil sources. In Iraq, oil is located in the northern and southern parts (Kurdish and Shiite, respectively), in the center - where the Sunnis are located - there are no resources.

The lack of access to the sea in the area of ​​residence of the Sunnis.

Like the Shiites, the Sunnis intend to gain their political self-determination.

Terrorists of the "Islamic State"

Representatives of the Islamic State (ISIL) [3], a group of people wishing to create their own “caliphate”, partially control the “Sunni triangle” zone.

It is a terrorist international organization, numbering (according to various estimates) from 80 to 300 thousands of military personnel.

The main religion of ISIS terrorists declared Sunni Islam with radical ideas. At the same time, the group itself is absolutely “heterogeneous” and multinational. The radical organization of ISIS is recognized as a terrorist by most countries. The movement originated in 2006, on the basis of 11 Islamist organizations + 8 small groups, including an al-Qaida unit. The prerequisite was that the United States overthrew the then existing regime of Saddam Hussein, without offering anything in return. What radical groups have used, deciding to unite in the name of creating a unified theocratic state. The US troops, though they destroyed the regime that was customary at that time, they nevertheless liberated the Kurdish people from the dominant Saddam tyranny.

The purpose of creating ISIS is the absolute subordination of the territories and the elimination of the borders established as a result of the division of the Ottoman caliphate, and the creation of an orthodox Islamic state at least in Iraq and Sham (Levant) - Syria, Lebanon, the Sinai Peninsula, as a maximum - throughout the Islamic world. ISIS is a radical group, rallying its members based primarily on ideology. A. Chetvertak ( notes: “These are Sunnis, who adhere primarily to the Hanbali school, which is distinguished by the greatest severity among all four existing legal schools in Sunni Islam. ISIS received support from the Sunni population, not because it banned the teaching of biology, physics, music, and social sciences (especially as regards democracy), not because members of this group cut off their heads to their opponents and declared world jihad, but because they are Sunni and fight against Shiite domination [4]. " So it is: without such support, LIH would not have received such an impressive influence. The most oppressed part of the victims of ISIS is the Yezidis (a religious society within the Kurdish ethnic group) who suffered genocide. The fact of genocide was recognized by the United Nations, the United States, the European Parliament, the Parliament of Great Britain and international organizations of world scale. Currently, according to the UN Commission, more than 3,5 thousands of Yezidi women and children are among the prisoners of Islamists.

The support of ISIS by the Sunnis is due to the fact that the Sunni units are not represented in the state power of the regions, and this makes them an “oppressed minority”. In this connection, there is an absolutely objective desire to be complicit in the life of the country.

Consider ISIS revenue line items:

Oil smuggling from the controlled deposits of Syria and Iraq (80 thousand barrels / day ~ 100 $ million per month) and the subsequent sale of Turkey and even to Iran.

Robbery (especially banking)

Extortion and medium and large businesses

Taxation of non-Muslim population

Customs duty on transportation

As you can see, these resources are completely independent from external "allies" and fully self-sufficient. A number of analysts call today ISIS the richest and most secured radical grouping and estimate its fortune at 2 billion dollars. Unlike their opponents (the Syrian and Iraqi army), who have limited opportunities for militant confrontation.

The Kurdish movement and its de facto independent homeland - Iraqi Kurdistan - are recognized as an active rival force of ISIL.

Iraqi Kurdistan

Kurds in Iraq are second only to Arabs in size (ca. 8 million people, 25% of the country's population). Iraqi Kurdistan occupies the sixth part of the entire territory of Iraq (about 40 thousand sq. Km. (70 thousand sq. Km including the so-called disputed territories - editorial note)), comparable to the territory of Holland.

Iraqi Kurdistan is a de facto independent state entity in the north of the republic, de jure enshrined as autonomy. According to an oriental researcher A. Rafaat: “Iraqi Kurdistan, even without becoming an independent state, becomes the center of regionalization and internationalization of the Kurds as a force to be reckoned ... Kurds are becoming active players in the Middle East policy” [5].

According to Section 1, Art. 113, of the Constitution of Iraq, Kurdistan has received the status of a federal region and very broad powers even for a subject of a federal state:

- the right to own legislation (subject to non-contradiction of the federal Constitution);

- own system of legislative, executive and judicial power;

- own security forces, their own representative offices at Iraqi embassies abroad.

Autonomy has extremely broad, in fact, state powers: in addition to its own airports, official universities, the three branches of government and the regular army, Iraqi Kurdistan also has its own oil pipeline.

The dominant economic spheres of Iraqi Kurdistan are currently energy (oil), tourism and agriculture. Three important features make the region il. Kurdistan is a more attractive region, which makes it stand out from the background of Iraq and neighboring countries:

- favorable investment conditions for foreign companies

-liberal market conditions, coupled with a macro-stable economy,

- relative security from the threat of terrorism (as far as security can be judged in an ever-burning Middle East).

Consider the growth themes of the Kurdistan economy:

In 2004, per capita income was 50% higher than in the rest of Iraq.

By the 2009 year - higher by 200%.

In 2005-2008, the highest growth rates were achieved (around 12,7%).

In 2010-2012, growth rates were 11,5%

From 2012, growth has stabilized from 7% to 8%.

From 2013, the growth rate of the autonomy's economy fell from 8% to 3%, poverty doubled.

It must be admitted that Iraqi Kurdistan is an autonomy with a market economy, and for many years it has been developing on the basis of market principles, and quite successfully. The fight against ISIS, of course, led to new challenges in the region (financial crisis + provision of refugees and military forces), but before it in Kurdistan there was one of the highest economic growth rates in the world - almost 12% per year.

The social side of Iraqi Kurdistan is also at a higher level than the rest of Iraq and its neighboring countries:

- free and quality education to university level,

- free medical services (up to providing them in rural areas),

- liberal labor legislation (for example, starting a business in Ir. Kurdistan takes up to 4x),

- licensing is required only in the alcohol, defense and tobacco spheres.

Thus, we have considered the main political forces of the Iraqi state, which the republic risks in the medium term. Certainly, the caliphate of the “Islamic State” does not realize itself (it will not allow this civilized world), however, complete nationalization of Iraqi Kurdistan is quite possible. There is one big problem in Iraq - the contradictions of two Arab sects, each of which is confident in its absolute right to rule the country: Sunni Arabs intend to return the former Saddam domination in Iraq, actively cooperating with ISIL and not allowing to build a real federation, and Shiite Arabs, Guided by my own numerical majority, I consider the only true to be my exclusive participation in government. In the struggle of two Muslim forces today, Iraqi Kurdistan occupies a decent position, more than ever close to its independence. For good reason the minorities rebel against the dominant power. The World Declaration of Human Rights states: “Human rights must be protected by power so that a person is not forced to resort to rebellion against tyranny and oppression as the last resort.”

Author: Jamila Kochoyan, Political Journalist
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  1. 0
    27 2016 June
    If Iraq falls apart, then the war will be there all the time.
    1. +1
      27 2016 June
      Quote: Teberii
      If Iraq falls apart, wars will be there all the time

      And he already fell apart
      According to the Iraqi Constitution, the country's prime minister (constitutionally key position) is Shiite, the president is Kurdish, and the chairman of parliament is Sunni. This was the US demand, based on the principle of pluralism and the consensus of three ethno-religious communities of Iraqi society: Shiite Arabs, Sunni Arabs and Kurds.

      doesn’t resemble anything?
      The Lebanese model (Confessionalism) of the state system, existing for more than half a century, was created in 1943 in the process of Lebanon gaining independence from France. In order to ensure more or less equal access to supreme authority for all religious faiths, the following procedure was developed: the president should be a Maronite Christian, the prime minister should be a Sunni Muslim, the parliamentary speaker should be a Shiite Muslim, and in the government Christians and Muslims are equally represented. According to the constitution, Lebanon is a parliamentary republic.

      Well, who will call Lebanon a state?
      Syria is waiting for the same thing - a set of quasi-states - at war with each other
      In Iraq, there is one big problem - the contradictions of two Arab sects, each of which is confident in its absolute right to rule the country: Sunni Arabs intend to regain their former Saddam dominance in Iraq, actively cooperating with ISIS and not allowing to build a real federation, and Shiite Arabs, Guided by their numerical majority, I consider their exclusive participation in public administration to be the only true one. In the struggle of the two Muslim forces today, it is Iraqi Kurdistan that is closer than ever to its independence.

      Alawites + Shiites - Sunnis - Kurds .------ SWAMP
      1. 0
        27 2016 June
        atalef (9) IL
        Alawites + Shiites - Sunnis - Kurds .------ SWAMP

        I think this is more like the Yellowstone Caldera. Can smell at any time.
        1. 0
          27 2016 June
          Quote: Kos_kalinki9
          atalef (9) IL
          Alawites + Shiites - Sunnis - Kurds .------ SWAMP

          I think this is more like the Yellowstone Caldera. Can smell at any time.

          Yes, it has already fallen, a swamp is for all rescuers.
          1. -1
            27 2016 June
            Yes, it has already fallen, a swamp is for all rescuers.

            Now the idea is clear. I agree.
      2. -1
        27 2016 June
        It’s too early to rip off the siri, you can leave your own there. In this case, it is better for you Jews to touch a rag and not shine. There, serious guys put things in order, the Russian VKS. with Iraq, yes, everything is very bad. It should not be otherwise, where there is a pin doo, there is death and destruction. What the hell is democracy? The one who has more rights is always right there! Until a completely exclusive ghoul appears, and does not restore order with the help of a carrot and a stick, there will be a mess there. Well, actually, this was conceived by the fighters for global shit democracy.
  2. PKK
    27 2016 June
    Thanks to Jamil! The article turned out to be complete and accessible. The alignment of forces in the region became clear. It would be more complete to add the role of the United States, otherwise it is not clear: the United States supports Shiites and immediately creates ISIS. It is more complete to identify the policy vectors of each group. Iran. To the author plus.
    1. -1
      27 2016 June
      Quote: PKK
      It would not be clear to add the full role of the United States, but the United States supports Shiites and immediately creates ISIS.

      Let's not. It is the support of the United States that Prime Minister Malik and Shiites created ISIS,
      The USA did not create it, it was a reaction of the oppressed Sunni minority
      Quote: PKK
      More fully identify the policy vectors of each grouping

      And what to designate is a religious war.
      Burns hate others and those who are in power - that and grandmother
      Quote: PKK
      The news is that stolen oil went to Iran. The author is a plus.

      Yes, no news.
      In Libya - war - by war - and oil was pumped. The same thing happened in Chechnya, in Iraq and in Syria.
    2. 0
      27 2016 June
      Quote: PKK
      It would be unclear to add the full role of the USA, otherwise the USA supports Shiites and immediately creates ISIS

      I think that everything is clear here: their constant impudent Saxon principle is at work - "We have no permanent friends, we have permanent interests." They will never miss their own, what will happen to the country or the people (peoples) of that country, they do not care how much.
      1. +3
        27 2016 June
        Quote: venaya
        I think that everything is clear here: their constant impudent Saxon principle is at work - "We have no permanent friends, we have permanent interests."

        normal position.
        First of all, you must observe your interests.
        Quote: venaya
        what will happen there with the country or people (peoples) of that country, not how many of them shake.

        But does it really bother you? wink
        Over in 3 weeks, a million people were chopped up for mincemeat - I don’t think that you slept badly and stood on Red Square with a banner - save Huta.
        1. +1
          27 2016 June
          Quote: atalef
          Over in 3 weeks, a million people were chopped up for mincemeat - I don’t think that you slept badly and stood on Red Square with a banner - save Huta.

          And there that which was not divided, the tribe worshiping the gopher God, saw a threat in the tribe worshiping the jerboa god.

          The theatrical is healthy. It’s boring for you, every day it’s the same, someone shoots at someone. Someone is wetting someone, it’s not clear why.
          After 300 years, experts from all over the world will break their heads, arguing about what they shared there.
  3. +1
    27 2016 June
    Good article. For the reader who has no idea about what is happening in Iraq, the article will be extremely useful, as it is presented correctly, in a simple and accessible style. The author is a big plus for serious and informative work. For myself, it’s clear that I haven’t discovered anything new, but this in no way pleads with the merits of the author and the article. hi
  4. -1
    27 2016 June
    An article from the US series is high, and local residents are full of downers and loafers. In the countries of the US region, they act on the principle of divide and conquer, and our departure from there will come out a hundred times to us sideways.
  5. 0
    27 2016 June
    The way it is. Next is Oman, the Saudis. Under the guise of Qatar. And play the role of an affectionate but distant friend. And a friend, and an arbiter, and an evil, good cop.
  6. 0
    27 2016 June
    It’s all beneficial only for the USA sitting overseas. They don’t give a damn that if all of Eurasia is a gangster region that you can use as you like, it’s bad for Eurasia itself and for its countries. Therefore, we need to make a lot of efforts to prevent this. Good times are gone in the summer.
  7. 0
    27 2016 June
    Quote: atalef
    Over in 3 weeks, a million people chopped up for minced meat in Rwanda

    The Middle East, like Africa, is a cesspool with a predominantly underdeveloped population, hence the endless wars from scratch, and the population’s ability to develop. There is no USSR and no one will help the backward countries for development. The Caucasus and Central Asia are more fortunate as they geographically close to Russia, as well as the same level of development as in Africa or Afghanistan.
    1. 0
      27 2016 June
      You somehow look one-sidedly at things: Geyropeytsov and psi.d.sovs seem to be considered to be "developed", however, they ignited local wars and took part in them a lot, but they are "developed" ?! Some "softness" in religious relations between Catholics and Orthodox is determined by the presence of the so-called. "European politician", and in the Muslim East there is clannishness, relationships within the clan, plus blood feud has not been canceled; imposes on all this also the existing mentality of the local population, plus the existing intolerance in religious movements within Islam; and also the desire of the heads of clans to take a warm place in power and "cut", according to their concepts, the budget.
      And, no less important, a completely different attitude to life and death.

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