Military Review

New outcast. Who becomes the driving force of the revolution in the CIS

68
The example of Ukraine shows that not the civil society — human rights activists, democratic activists, but representatives of traditional, more closed structures — organizations of veterans, Cossacks and nationalists — are entering the crisis at the forefront, contrary to expectations. And they are driven not by the desire for democratization, but by the desire to apply their skills in order to jump a few steps in the social hierarchy.

The revolutionary upheavals faced by hybrid regimes in the post-Soviet space are becoming increasingly different from what political science and the classical theory of democratization are used to. The middle class, the traditional mover of revolution, is gradually dissolving in the socio-demographic landscape of the post-Soviet regimes. The reason is, firstly, the permanent economic crisis, which does not allow a more or less dense core of the middle class to form. And secondly, the deliberate actions of the elite to gradually cooptate and transform the middle class into a bureaucratic apparatus, directly dependent on the state, and therefore incapable of presenting democratic demands.

Who then becomes the main conductor of social transformations? Are these people driven by the desire for greater freedom and democratic ideals, or something completely different? You can answer this question by trying to understand the attitudes of people who took part in the last Ukrainian revolution.

Social demography of the revolution

In his recently published book “Revolutions. A very brief introduction. ”American political analyst Jack Goldstone describes cultural, demographic and other reasons that can cause serious social transformations. For example, social elevators that often work poorly in authoritarian regimes, multiplied by stagnant labor market trends, can give rise to the phenomenon of unnecessary people, whose hearts will demand revolutionary changes. In addition, a sharp increase in population size and life expectancy have created a “youth bulge” in many countries in Africa and the Middle East. The “Arab Spring” was based precisely on young people who could not find a place in life because of the outdated structure of the economy.

The influence of such factors can be found in recent stories Russia. American sociologist Georgy Derlugyan, after analyzing the socio-demographic portrait of Caucasian separatism, came to the conclusion that there are two groups that played a key role in the events of the 1990-s. The first group is the intelligentsia, which, especially in the Chechen-Ingush Autonomous Soviet Socialist Republic, felt deprived of its position and could not occupy leadership positions in the party, institutions of science and culture of that period. This was superimposed on the general overproduction of the intelligentsia in the USSR and the lack of social mobility. The symbolic capital accumulated by them could not be applied before the collapse of the USSR, but after the dictatorship was weakened from the center, it opened a window of opportunity for the Caucasian intelligentsia, throwing them into the frontline revolution.

Therefore, among the Chechen separatists we see the poet Zelimkhan Yandarbiyev and the actor of the Grozny drama theater Akhmed Zakayev. Shakespearer Zviad Gamsakhurdia, who became president of Georgia, was soon deposed by modernist sculptor Tengiz Kitovani and film critic Jaba Ioseliani - and this list can be continued for a long time.

The second social group, which also clearly manifested itself during the crisis, is the underclass of the Caucasian and especially Chechen youth. Seeing no opportunity to get a decent profession, they assimilated the code of the street, which replaced them with normal institutions of socialization. Their perceptions and attitudes were articulated by the national intelligentsia, easily dropping the party elite at a crisis moment, but having failed to keep under-class representatives, who felt their strength, from further separatist actions.

Another example: in the middle of 1990, employees of power structures, who lost a significant part of their advantages and social status with the fall of the USSR, came to the fore of the post-Soviet space as “power entrepreneurs”, trying to literally monetize their symbolic capital. It was these people who took advantage of the state’s loss of the monopoly on violence, began to engage in racketeering, put pressure on entrepreneurs and turn it into their own business.

Group portrait

Trying to find the same social groups and assess their impact on the Ukrainian revolution, one must take into account the peculiarities of the post-Soviet regimes. In accordance with the general trend, the middle class of Ukrainian society is weak and remains in a permanent economic crisis. Those who first came to the Maidan in the fall of 2013 of the year can be partly attributed to middle class, civil and social activists formed by an intelligentsia layer. But soon they were joined by other social groups, changing the portrait of the Ukrainian revolutionary.

Who were these people and what were their goals? How much their attitudes were based on the requirements of democratization, and how much their social justice? What did they expect to gain from regime change: greater freedom or the opportunity to use the situation for personal gain?
These questions can be answered by examining the phenomenon of the Ukrainian volunteer battalions, whose participants were ready to defend their interests with weapons in hand.

Having arisen spontaneously, the battalions began to be quickly integrated into the existing state structures, while maintaining, however, sufficient independence. The social status of the battalions, their leaders and combatants grew rapidly due to their participation in hostilities in the south-eastern regions. By about the summer of 2014, the battalions had become one of the pillars of the Ukrainian statehood, along with other security agencies - the police, the army, but to a large extent they remained independent of the latter.

Similar processes took place in the territory of the self-proclaimed republics, where armed groups were also formed under the leadership of pro-Russian activists.
Our study of the volunteer battalion commanders on both sides of the conflict allows us to characterize the overall portrait of this social group.

At first, commanders on both sides can not be attributed to the intelligentsia or the bearers of the traditional emancipatory values ​​of the revolution. Their level of education is low, most of them received diplomas of non-prestigious, regional universities. Among them there are almost no representatives of creative professions, they are completely different from the Caucasian leaders described by Derlugyan. A quarter of the commanders come from law enforcement agencies, about the same number of former small entrepreneurs among them, and even fewer employees and civil servants.

Secondly, among commanders there are no people with high material or social status. The career and life trajectory of most of them was not very successful. Nevertheless, for the formation and management of the battalion requires serious social skills, talent, which the commanders successfully demonstrated. Thus, commanders rather represent a kind of potential counter-elite of the Ukrainian society, which in other socio-political conditions would be able to claim a higher social status.

Thirdly, nearly half of the commanders before the 2014 events of the year had experience in political or social activities. But the nature of this activity is quite specific. The brightest examples are: the ataman of the Don Don Cossacks (Kozitsyn), the chairman of the Krivoy Rog urban organization of the veterans of the Airborne Forces (Kolesnik), the chairman of the council of the Federation of organizations of the peacekeepers of Ukraine (Gumenyuk), the regional leader of the Organization of Ukrainian Nationalists (Kokhanovsky). All of them are difficult to attribute to human rights, civil or democratic activists.

As a result, the Ukrainian and Novorossiysk commanders are, of course, not the social bottom of society, but also not the middle class. At best, this is a coalition of the lower middle class with representatives of the lower class. Speaking in terms of macrosociology, commanders are in their own way a talented social group, perhaps a potential counter-elite, which, having failed to find its place in the current political system, was able to take advantage of the window of opportunity that has opened and sharply improve its social status.

Cossack and veteran

Commanders of volunteer battalions and militia units are a great example of lightning social mobility. Yes, some of them died in battle, someone was killed as a result of internal clashes, someone after a few months returned to his former affairs, but someone became a member of parliament, minister or even the head of the unrecognized republic.

It is unlikely that commanders moved the goals of democratization and the attainment of greater freedom, resistance to corruption and nepotism. They probably saw in the revolution the opportunity to finally apply their own skills and jump over several steps in the social hierarchy. By this, the commanders are similar to the representatives of the Soviet intelligentsia, who played a key role in the revolutionary events of the 1990s.

New outcast. Who becomes the driving force of the revolution in the CIS
The opening ceremony of the monument "They defended their homeland" in honor of the militia, who two years ago defended the cities of the LC. Photo: Taras Dudnik / TASS

The main paradox here is that in the conditions of the crisis, civil society in its classical sense — human rights activists, democratic activists — and representatives of traditional, more closed structures — organizations of veterans, Cossacks, and nationalists — go to the forefront, contrary to expectations.

In early May, a monument was opened in Lugansk “They defended their homeland,” which consists of four figures: a Cossack, a veteran of the Afghan war, a young militiaman and a woman guarded by them. This self-presentation once again confirms this new, unexpected portrait of a revolutionary.

The effectiveness of such closed public organizations in a crisis is explained by the fact that for the successful mobilization of a group, it is necessary not so much trust among all its members as a solid avant-garde activists, followed by the remaining majority. Inside the veteran or other traditional public organizations a clear hierarchical structure is built, there is a cohesive core of leaders. It is easier for them to agree among themselves on collective actions, and then to mobilize the rest of the group for them.

The use of such social groups, with low education, income, social status and often semi-criminal past, various windows of opportunities in the post-Soviet space is already beyond the borders of the Ukrainian crisis. The phenomenon of the private military campaign "Wagner", which operates in Syria, is a vivid example.

Judging by the available data, the socio-demographic portrait of the leaders and fighters of the Wagner PMC coincides with the portrait of the Ukrainian and Novorossiysk combatants. These are in their own way talented people whose career has not developed in a peaceful manner. For some time they found themselves on the periphery of social stratification, but in a crisis they find new uses for themselves. What will happen to them when the hybrid war turns into a smoldering conflict, and the state’s need for them disappears, is an open and very alarming question.

Wider ranks

The influence of such social groups on the landscape of the post-Soviet states will continue to grow in the future. In the region, serious overproduction of security forces. Not finding a job in their specialty, they are looking for alternative ways, but they do not always successfully find them. Therefore, the number of such frustrated young and middle-aged men who are trying to find a place under the sun, including risky actions during a crisis, will grow.

Even those security officials who work in their specialty are far from always satisfied with their position. Career of a serving person is common, but not very prestigious. In a crisis of statehood, this may give rise to a serious problem: instead of being the backbone of the state and regime, service people use the moment to advance.

For Russia, this problem is reinforced by the last reform of the Ministry of Internal Affairs, the reduction of the Federal Drug Control Service, the number of personnel in the military, and so on, as well as the gradual attenuation of the conflict in south-eastern Ukraine and the return of fighters from there. Not understanding how to integrate into a peaceful life at home, ex-combatants will try to find an alternative use for themselves. The recently created All-Russian National Movement is only one of the possible reincarnations.

Finally, an increase in the number of dissatisfied and frustrated social strata is a trend peculiar to not only post-Soviet countries, but also to the rest of the world. Inequality can severely distort the socio-demographic structure of both developed and developing countries in the coming decades. The growing property and status gap, the uncertainty about the future of the enlarged lower segment of the middle class may cause more than one revolutionary transformation.
Author:
Originator:
http://carnegie.ru/commentary/2016/06/09/ru-63776/j1oe
68 comments
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  1. poquello
    poquello 13 June 2016 18: 28
    +18
    What is the revolution in dill? this is organized the excitement of the masses and the coup
    1. Reserve officer
      Reserve officer 13 June 2016 18: 36
      +29
      The article is a rather serious analysis on a very difficult topic. Moreover, the signs of a revolutionary situation, voiced by V.I. Lenin 100 years ago ("The Collapse of the Second International, 1915) is still relevant, but the driving forces of such revolutions have also undergone little change. Everything is the same. And all this can explode not only in Ukraine.
      And there are, in fact, two antidotes - the country's stable economic development and ideology. Dissatisfied and any paid "human rights activists" will always be there anyway, but this is already the field of activity of the relevant bodies.
      1. Altona
        Altona 13 June 2016 19: 07
        +11
        Quote: Reserve officer
        And there are, in fact, two antidotes - the country's stable economic development and ideology. Dissatisfied and any paid "human rights activists" will always be there anyway, but this is already the field of activity of the relevant bodies.

        ------------------
        And in Russia, the ruling elites are successfully knocking the ground out from under the feet of the incumbent President, who, moreover, is a liberal himself and apparently cannot restrain himself from the inaccessibility of Beryozka stores in the USSR, unnecessarily pressing on the “market model”. The acting oligarchs command collectives of up to 30 thousand people, believing that this is the peak of management. Maintenance of drilling rigs and pipes is no longer required, the rest are methodically thrown out into "superfluous people" as the Soviet machine-building factories wither away as hopelessly outdated. Any coup requires a sufficient protest potential, which is useless to try to close it. The boiler lid will rip off anyway.
      2. Dart2027
        Dart2027 13 June 2016 20: 31
        +6
        Quote: Reserve officer
        Not only are there signs of a revolutionary situation

        A sign of a revolutionary situation is Nuland distributing cookies. The rest is already trifles.
        1. Dam
          Dam 13 June 2016 21: 47
          +9
          Nuland is a financier of the revolution. She and other mattresses could not have done anything without a corrupt elite, impotent power and hungry lumpen
          1. Dart2027
            Dart2027 13 June 2016 22: 20
            +1
            Quote: Damm
            She and other mattresses could not have done anything without a corrupt elite, impotent power

            Of course, no revolution is impossible without betrayal at the highest levels. But without this, she could hardly have behaved so freely.
      3. Homo
        Homo 14 June 2016 00: 43
        +2
        Quote: Reserve officer
        The article is a rather serious analysis on a rather complicated topic.

        Is this a serious analysis? "Having emerged spontaneously, the battalions began to quickly integrate into the existing state structures ..." You also say that 5 lamas of greenery were not spent on the organization and all on donations from civilians.
    2. Kos_kalinki9
      Kos_kalinki9 13 June 2016 18: 41
      +12
      Quote: poquello
      What is the revolution in dill? this is organized the excitement of the masses and the coup

      About the revolution, yes, although kakly and trynd about the revolution of gidnosti. And on the second, it is an military coup organized by OUTSIDE.
      1. Altona
        Altona 13 June 2016 19: 10
        +13
        Quote: Kos_kalinki9
        .a according to the second, it is an OUTSIDE military coup d'etat organized.

        ------------------
        Organized from the outside. But you cannot start a revolution if the protest stratum of society is not prepared. That is, you still need people who are confident in the correctness of their actions. In part, such people are "engendered" by the power itself by its stupid asocial policy.
        1. Kos_kalinki9
          Kos_kalinki9 13 June 2016 19: 41
          +9
          [quote] Altona ([quote] [/ quoteBut you cannot make a revolution,] [/ quote]
          Well, what can I argue about if you consider a military coup in Ukraine a revolution. [Quote] A revolution is radical, radical, "revolutionary", deep quality change, a leap in the development of nature, society or knowledge, coupled open gap with previous state. [/ Quote]
          Something of these signs is not observed there. One gang of politicians-traders replaced another. In the bottom line, the people suffered.
        2. Alexei
          Alexei 13 June 2016 20: 31
          0
          Quote: Altona
          In part, such people are "engendered" by the power itself by its stupid asocial policy.
          Only partly. Most of this is created by propaganda aimed at creating an illusion that allows a simple taxi driver or cook to confidently assert and think that the process of government is simple and requires basic will and patriotism, which the current government does not have.
      2. ISSIDOR
        ISSIDOR 13 June 2016 22: 04
        +3
        The Great October Revolution is also not without the outside, and the February one, too, so if a sufficient number of people support the events, the soil was favorable for outside influences, so any revolution is an event with a minus sign and the Maidan fits into the definition of revolution.
        1. Corporal Valera
          Corporal Valera 14 June 2016 00: 54
          +5
          Quote: ISSIDOR
          Maidan fits into the definition of revolution.

          A revolution is a change in social formation, therefore Maidan is not a revolution.
          Quote: ISSIDOR
          therefore, any revolution is an event with a minus sign

          This is not a true statement. In a historical perspective, the revolution resolves the contradictions that have accumulated in society and gives a new impetus to the development of this society. Therefore, not every revolution is a revolution with a minus sign. However, the Chinese are right: God forbid you live in a time of change.
    3. The comment was deleted.
    4. siberalt
      siberalt 14 June 2016 01: 36
      +2
      Is it a revolution or a transformation? The classic scientific terms are pulled out and "transformed" under their own idea of ​​the development of society. Isn't it too small? A revolution is, first of all, a qualitative leap in evolution in the literal sense of the term. And when power is transferred from one group of the ruling elite to another, even through an armed coup, without changing the structure of social relations in a radical way, and above all in relation to the ownership of the means of production, then this is no revolution, since nothing has essentially changed. This is a banal squeeze of the Power for the purpose of personal gain by individual representatives of society. That is why the term "middle class" was coined in order to blur the concept of exploitation by the ruling class of the working class (producers), hiding behind false democracy and liberalism. The entire history of the evolution of mankind, starting with the formation of the state, takes place in the struggle of the people against their exploiters for a fair distribution of the product of their labor activity produced by society.
    5. Simpsonian
      Simpsonian 14 June 2016 02: 22
      +2
      revolution - coup, from the word revolver (translated)
      1. poquello
        poquello 14 June 2016 14: 18
        0
        Quote: Simpsonian
        revolution - coup, from the word revolver (translated)

        but what will be the two words - "revolutionary solution"?
  2. svp67
    svp67 13 June 2016 18: 33
    +5
    For Russia, this problem is reinforced by the last reform of the Ministry of Internal Affairs, the reduction of the Federal Drug Control Service, the number of personnel in the military, and so on, as well as the gradual attenuation of the conflict in south-eastern Ukraine and the return of fighters from there. Not understanding how to integrate into a peaceful life at home, ex-combatants will try to find an alternative use for themselves. The recently created All-Russian National Movement is only one of the possible reincarnations.
    The topic has long been worked out in the West. In order not to let this problem grow, you just need to pass a law on "private" armed companies.
    They probably saw in the revolution the opportunity to finally apply their own skills and jump over several steps in the social hierarchy.
    It's funny to read ... There, people went to their deaths, as if on a scaffold, actually signing their own death warrant, what "opportunities" and "jumping over" is the author talking about? The old "elite" turned out to be not "elite" at all, because it most often has a brown color and always smells bad. And in such a situation, "only a very strong, strong-willed person can pick up a crown that is lying on the ground and is simply kicked, being afraid to pick it up."
    All these "undercover wars" for power begin later, when the mortal threat fades into the background.
  3. Andrey K
    Andrey K 13 June 2016 18: 33
    +10
    New Outcasts. Who becomes the driving force of revolutions in the CIS ...
    At the suggestion of all kinds of non-profit organizations that are sucked by various "democracies" (through USAID, for example, or the "Soros Foundation"): "outcasts" and "offended" are well-paid professions, and not in any way infringed by the state or "tyrants" .. ... negative
  4. Vladimir 1964
    Vladimir 1964 13 June 2016 18: 34
    +9
    The problem raised in the article is really serious and requires an appropriate attitude towards itself. However, the state "conscientiously" ignores the situation, both in the North Caucasus and in the country as a whole, a decrease in the income of the population, and even against the background of the authorities' reports that "everything is good" will lead nowhere. Well, except for the creation of the National Guard. In what way will it ultimately differ from the internal troops? hi
    1. svp67
      svp67 13 June 2016 18: 38
      +2
      Quote: Vladimir 1964
      What is interesting will it ultimately be different from the internal troops?

      At least by the fact that its creation and imparting the function of conducting operational work spurred others to work, already "bronzed"
    2. The comment was deleted.
  5. avva2012
    avva2012 13 June 2016 18: 35
    +3
    "Often, social elevators that work poorly in totalitarian societies."
    The man spoke honestly about Western democracy. The toughest totalitarian regimes are there. For the 1000th history of Europe, its elite practically did not change. So, what about the "elevators", who would say.
    1. The comment was deleted.
    2. siberalt
      siberalt 14 June 2016 01: 52
      +3
      Over the thousand-year history of Europe, three formations have changed, the slave system, the feudal and the capitalist. But only in Russia (USSR) was a social state built without a class of exploiters. And only thanks to this, social transformations began in Europe, such as shortening the working day, the right to work and rest, free mass school education, etc. And in many ways this kept Europe from revolutionary upheavals.
      1. poquello
        poquello 14 June 2016 15: 32
        0
        Quote: siberalt
        But only in Russia (USSR) was a social state built without a class of exploiters. And only because of this in Europe began social transformations, such as shortened working hours, the right to work and rest, free mass school education, etc. ...

        and the general global trend is not? USA 1884, Australia 1900, and in the Republic of Ingushetia since 1897, working hours have been steadily decreasing
  6. poquello
    poquello 13 June 2016 18: 42
    +4
    It is unlikely that the commanders moved the goals of democratization and gaining greater freedom, resistance to corruption and nepotism. They probably saw in the revolution the opportunity to finally apply their own skills and jump over several steps in the social hierarchy.

    Who is there that saw xs in the revolution, but to say that the main motive is to raise oneself of a loved one is some kind of nonsense.
    1. Yura
      Yura 13 June 2016 19: 24
      +9
      Quote: poquello
      the main motive is to raise yourself as a loved one - this is some kind of nonsense.
      I agree with you, the question was simply survival. not before the revolution was in Donetsk and Lugansk. No one there overthrew anyone from the throne, did not overthrow even this junta. What kind of revolution in Ukraine can we talk about if, on the one hand, the oligarchic clique and part of the country's military establishment usurped power by displacing a legitimate government without leaving the other side with options other than taking up arms and defending the right to life. Revolutions arise from class contradictions.
  7. avva2012
    avva2012 13 June 2016 18: 46
    +9
    Article is like a layer cake. It is not clear why the militias and the revolution? People are defending their homes, not fighting the formation. What does the PS and the revolution have to do with it? The animals are brought up consciously by the appropriate structures from outside. About the "war in the Caucasus", this is generally the trend of the liberals. There was an armed revolt, prepared and supported by the same structures as the Ukrainian one.
    Anti-Soviet and Russophobia, and not an article obtained. Pie with human.
  8. 31rus2
    31rus2 13 June 2016 18: 50
    +6
    Dear authors, thank you for the article, I asked for a long time. I disagree with many, for example, the opinion of the Americans, from their position it may be true, but why did you and they decide that the moving force is the middle class and society as a whole !!! the Maidan would not be whole. Another mistake is to mix the events in the Caucasus and Ukraine, and even color revolutions in other countries. Here, each case should be considered separately and by its driving force and support from outside, the religious factor is also important. Then you take the commanders as an example, the same controversial issue, if only because they were commanded or they acted according to the will of the same politicians, and the politicians themselves were not free to make decisions. Another interesting point, even in the essence of the conflicts, the authors put a psychological picture (pictures ) of individuals (without them), but the motivation (for some money, for others freedom, for others social growth, etc.) are examined superficially. I do not pretend to the truth, just thoughts out loud
  9. PKK
    PKK 13 June 2016 18: 56
    .
    The author was pleased, he clearly understood the topic that hung in the air. The answer to this question lies in another parallel area. Here the person fell out of some kind of process. There was only one left. And here is an important point. If a person starts to thirst, drink, dry his brain, and close himself from God and then, of course, there are accusations of power, of society, that I am dying of hunger, and they are fattening. The result is degradation and death.
    Another option: a person starts fasting, starving, meditating, praying, opening up to the Universe and God, improving his health, and here he comes up with a lot of useful ideas, he is suddenly hired, given or increased his pension. You need to starve to dry only 11 days and you young again.
  10. Mountain shooter
    Mountain shooter 13 June 2016 18: 56
    +8
    The article is controversial. But the authors argued the point of view, the statistics, however, did not lead, but we do not have a scientific journal ... The option of "channeling" this energy in the right direction is the law on PMCs. Which in Russia will take a long time, and is unlikely to be accepted. In Russia, the presence of such PMCs is dangerous because a large amount of unrecorded money is wandering around the country, for which these PMCs could be hired for God knows for what purposes (imagine the financial capabilities of the same Khodorkovsky). The issue of social elevators is a key issue in the development of any society.
  11. UVB
    UVB 13 June 2016 18: 58
    +5
    And this is the same monument from the back. In the background is an apartment building with traces of hits, this side of the house was almost unaffected, the entire opposite in the breaches. / clickable /
  12. akudr48
    akudr48 13 June 2016 18: 58
    0
    The meaning of the publication is not very clear, if only something about the support of the regime, its security units.

    The authors are concerned about the loyalty of service people who instead of being the backbone of the state and regime, service people use the moment to advance, that is, they will switch over to the other side, instead of protecting the Friedman, Abramovich, and other Deripassa to the last drop of blood.

    If so, then one should only rejoice at the remaining common sense at the back of the regime, which the authors of the article endow with servants. True, they are unlikely to cross over to the other side of the barricades just for the sake of a career.

    The authors, as it were, signal to their superiors that the problem of falling loyalty and reliability of security structures is exacerbated, which affects the latest reform of the Ministry of Internal Affairs, the reduction of the Federal Drug Control Service, the number of personnel of military personnel and so on, as well as the gradual attenuation of the conflict in southeastern Ukraine and the return of fighters from there. That is, rather stop cutting back on the guards, take care of the number of organs and prepare for the fight against people from the Donbass. Experiencing, then the authors are for power, worried about the future of the regime ...

    Given that the publication does not say anything about the motives for picking future opponents of the regime and about their willingness to go to the barricades, we can only assume that there is nothing to guess, there will be motives and willingness, people will gather, pick out the pavement (until Sobyanin has replaced on a tile) a cobblestone is an instrument of the proletariat, and it will go and it will go, and here it will join the people and organs to change the regime, so there is nothing to worry about, everything will be, give only a term ...

    Strange post.
  13. EvgNik
    EvgNik 13 June 2016 18: 59
    +2
    Who were these people and what were their goals?

    In my opinion, the question contains the answer.
    1. PHANTOM-AS
      PHANTOM-AS 14 June 2016 02: 14
      +1
      Why invent something when everything has already been invented, everything else is just a withdrawal from the topic of revolution.
      ... from the point of view of the dialectical method, evolution and revolution,
      quantitative and qualitative changes are two necessary forms of one
      and the same movement.
      ("Anarchism or Socialism?" V.1, p. 309.)

      A revolution cannot satisfy everyone and everything. She is always one end
      satisfies the working masses, at the other end beats secret and overt enemies
      of these masses.
      Therefore, we must choose: either together with the workers and the peasant poor
      for revolution, or together with capitalists and landlords against revolution.
      ("On the Provisional Government" v.3 p.42.)
      I.V. Stalin.
  14. erased
    erased 13 June 2016 19: 01
    +4
    Well, here’s an attempt at system analysis! At last! Moreover, with the example of today. By the way, they should deal with such an analysis in the FSB (or maybe they do).
    Social status, social activity, field of activity, education, group of participation: the result - a place in the new structure and development prospects, or lack thereof and the consequences of this. Everything is logical.
    Forgotten football fans and those who are in "near football". They have already shown themselves in Ukraine. We have partly after the murder of a Spartak fan in Moscow. Representatives of criminals are not taken into account, but they do not always turn into another in their own environment. Not in the analysis of sports groups. But they are not yet visible anywhere, although their activity is not far off, as one of the supporting forces. Athletes are either part of an ethnic or criminal structure, or generally on the sidelines.
    But the main problem area is managers, officials. Their impotence in terms of work, inability and unwillingness to do their job lead to many problems in all of the above groups. Where it was possible to do just the normal performance of direct duties, there is a hidden and overt sabotage and overt spit.
    As a result, we have spontaneous demonstrations, which, as shown by the Maidan, are quickly led by specialists "from there." As a result, blood, chaos and another "black hole" on the edge of Russia. But it can also arise within the country.
    And it's scary ...
  15. Atlant-1164
    Atlant-1164 13 June 2016 19: 02
    +2
    amerikosy went to the bank .. The only purpose is to destabilize the order in all our neighboring republics .. in troubled waters it is always easier to fish out something.
  16. avg-mgn
    avg-mgn 13 June 2016 19: 10
    +3
    I read and did not understand. We are scared, warned or run into impudent. Who is the current Strelkov for Russia? What kind of decline in combat activity in the southeast are the authors talking about? What does the concept of Ukraine have to the CIS, in general nonsense!
    An article with pseudo-analysis clearly far-fetched. It is not clear why he appeared at VO. Minus.
  17. samarin1969
    samarin1969 13 June 2016 19: 10
    +7
    A revolution is when the misfortunes of nations are stronger than the fear of losing life and property; when there are no expected reforms; when the elite absurdizes their egoism; + inglorious foreign policy.

    At the head of the "Maidan revolution" was the snickering "golden youth" and the same "elite". They were joined by the undead from Western Ukraine. All sorts of Füle, Bildy, Solana, Dali and Radoslava "sanctified" the lawlessness and promised billions of investments ... This is a Civil War, not a revolution.
  18. verb
    verb 13 June 2016 19: 10
    +2
    Well, yes, well, yes ... If it's Mikhail Komin, a political scientist from Novaya Gazeta, and Andrei Shcherbak, who graduated from the Higher School of Economics and works as an associate professor, a "political scientist", everything is clear. The guys do not eat bread for nothing, that is, they work out grants. These are also not up to such "investigated". Spit and grind.
  19. Iskander Sh
    Iskander Sh 13 June 2016 19: 17
    +2
    For Russia, this problem is reinforced by the recent reform of the Ministry of Internal Affairs, the reduction of the Federal Drug Control Service and the number of personnel in the military


    The problem is not reinforced by reform and reduction, but by the lack of opportunities. Although this is again strange in Russia, there is a great shortage of workers, in the near future there will also be demographic greetings from the 90s.
  20. avia1991
    avia1991 13 June 2016 19: 22
    +5
    It is unlikely that the commanders moved the goals of democratization and gaining greater freedom, resistance to corruption and nepotism. They probably saw in the revolution an opportunity to finally apply their own skills and jump over several steps in the social hierarchy
    Guys, DO NOT JUDGE ABOUT PEOPLE BY YOURSELF! Who do you think you are - "elite" ??
    In general, intuitively, the article caused rejection. Such armchair "theorists" are sitting and composing profound conclusions! Information pulled from various sources - yes, for the most part is correct. But their own perception of the picture, the conclusions .. turns away. negative
  21. Berkut24
    Berkut24 13 June 2016 20: 26
    -1
    I read the article and it reminded me of something. Oh yes - a similar lecture I heard in 2002 before the elections to the State Duma. And the circumstances were as follows - I was the chief of the electoral headquarters from the Union of Right Forces in 6 constituencies, and the lecture was given by "comrades" from the NDI, well, yes, the one that seems to be an independent institution promoting democracy around the world. Then I heard a lot of interesting and useful things, after which I disagreed with the Chubais guys.
    So about the article / lecture. In fact, it does not list the causes of the revolution, but the mechanisms that can be used to destabilize society. This is a bare theory that has no personal relationship to the CIS or the Middle East. The fact is that the voiced reasons for the discontent of the population are characteristic of any country, any system and any region. Everywhere there are those who could not achieve in life what they dreamed of as a schoolboy. Communism is not enough for everyone everywhere. And everywhere there are those who personally lacked democracy or who were "not appreciated."
    Therefore, the revolutionary potential can be unearthed in any country, including the United States and Europe. The question is who needs it and who is willing to pay for it.
    And the last thing. As practice shows, there are countries with historical memory that have already been undermined by this several times, and Russia is one of them. Therefore, to the theoreticians of the revolution, we are like a bone in the throat, for in this place their "scientific" theory fails. For our experience says that:
    1) If a revolution happens, then it has not so much a driving force as a generous customer and buyer of this force
    2) The revolution of the problems of the population listed in the article has not yet been solved, but it creates new problems in such numbers that it will take many more years to disentangle.

    And yes, thanks to the Ukrainian schiza for reminding these postulates. The "swamp" are now sad. Their sponsors do too.
  22. midshipman
    midshipman 13 June 2016 20: 36
    +6
    I had 12 enterprises in Ukraine (6GU of the USSR Ministry of Radio Industry), which employed more than 120 thousand specialists. I constantly reported on the situation at enterprises (especially in Lviv) to the Defense Department of the CPSU Central Committee. The country's political leaders simply missed the point. We developed production and science.
    I published an article about this in "VO" "The Price of Betrayal or Incompetence". I have the honor.
    1. Berkut24
      Berkut24 13 June 2016 22: 59
      +3
      Nobody missed the situation. It's easier. Look carefully - at the head of the entire collapse of the USSR were the first secretaries of the regional committees of the party of republics. And they, for the most part, became the presidents of their newborn countries. They did not blink - they were creating the resource that was supposed to lead them to power, because they looked like liberators from the "Soviet occupation". So, ironically, your reports ended up on the table for those officials who were the ultimate beneficiaries of the country's collapse. And you yourself, it turns out, were one of the valuable informants of how Ukraine is ready for secession.
  23. avg-mgn
    avg-mgn 13 June 2016 20: 43
    0
    Quote: MBDA

    If you do not understand, this does not mean that aggression must be included in obscure things. It is necessary to understand the essence of the issue.

    First, what kind of aggression are we talking about?
    Second, what is it about in the article that there are many "bad people" in the country? I assure you, 0,01% of them are known by sight. There will be no repetition of a mess, as in Ukraine, but people like that have always been and always are, many that are smarter are already behind the cordon and sprinkle saliva from there, but here there is foam.
  24. lukke
    lukke 13 June 2016 21: 06
    +1
    It is unlikely that commanders moved the goals of democratization and the attainment of greater freedom, resistance to corruption and nepotism. They probably saw in the revolution the opportunity to finally apply their own skills and jump over several steps in the social hierarchy. By this, the commanders are similar to the representatives of the Soviet intelligentsia, who played a key role in the revolutionary events of the 1990s.
    I absolutely disagree. Following this postulate, it turns out that all "revolutionary commanders" are without ideological careerists, and I will say that without an idea, they simply don’t go for machine guns for a "chair" - the stakes are different. And second: the majority of "revolutionary commanders" just wake up their talents during the struggle, and not like the author - he worked as a mechanic at a factory with the skills of a green beret - a commander of a group for organizing an insurrectionary movement, here again - a revolution! and he is so skillful at once in the "king". About the Cossacks, too, the rut is continuous - the author generally knows nothing about the Cossacks and their foundations.
    In my opinion, this statement applies to units, but in no case is it not a regularity.
  25. Signore Tomato
    Signore Tomato 13 June 2016 21: 58
    0
    The main paradox here is that in a crisis, contrary to expectations, it is not civil society in its classical sense that comes to the forefront - human rights activists, democratic activists, ...



    Well, just boo-ha-ha some!

    ... human rights activists, democratic activists, ...


    That is, the entire lashintellgent feces.

    Someone, give an example of some kind of "revolution" that would have been led and successfully functioned for a more or less long period of time. PS: Not to mention Lenin is another story.
  26. Signore Tomato
    Signore Tomato 13 June 2016 22: 13
    +3
    Sitting vshivoinchilikhenty and argue "Well, why no one takes us to lead some kind of revolution?" Nausea.
  27. bad
    bad 13 June 2016 22: 44
    +2
    ..bad..and judging by the collective duet ..two, judging by the syllable of the essay, civilian units that didn’t realize themselves anywhere..and do they defend their principles weakly with weapons? no .. it’s better to emboss a pompous article with home-grown analysis ... when I started reading I remembered lectures on political economy in the army of the USSR .. the presentation is almost similar but more amateurish .. reasoning from a purely liberal style ..
    1. kon125
      kon125 13 June 2016 23: 30
      0
      Plus, a hundred. Indeed, rotten nonsense. I am upset many now, but the author is not in the subject in any way. In the elderberry garden, but let the experts find out where the author’s uncle and whose nephew is from. The person uses the audience not to be aware of what is happening on South East. I do not know what is happening in the veteran organizations of the Russian Federation. I report.
      The Cossacks of Russia, the Combat Brotherhood and the Union of Russian Paratroopers, are the main organizations of veterans, support the Supreme Commander-in-Chief. This is how you like it or not, a medical fact. For one simple reason. We have families in Russia. Children. We actually live here. We won’t start a revolution. There were attempts. When we went out against Serdyukov to Poklonnaya, we were pulled by the sleeve, we are a religious organization that openly raised our voice against the furniture maker, we still hiccup .. But our Commanders turned to us. General Hero of Russia Shamanov.
      Commander of the Airborne Forces. Former Commanders of the Airborne Forces Shpak Georgy Ivanovich, Kolmakov Alexander Petrovich.
      And although we were very angry with Serdyukov, we made a decision formulated by the former head of intelligence of the Airborne Forces Popovskikh, namely: "Russia has exhausted the limit of revolutions."
      The conversation is over. Simultaneously after the war broke out against Russia. And we understand it precisely as a war, and the veterans of the military service who are here will agree with me.
      An unequivocal position has been taken to support in everything Russia, its Supreme Commander-in-Chief Putin. Whatever happens.
    2. sa-ag
      sa-ag 14 June 2016 07: 03
      0
      Quote: bad
      .a weakly defend their principles with weapons? no .. it’s better to emboss a high-profile article with home-grown analysis ..

      But first you need to formulate the principles, this is not an easy task - the generation of the idea of ​​community, they uphold the principles in the heads of people, they take up arms when an open confrontation begins with those who disagree
  28. atamankko
    atamankko 13 June 2016 23: 04
    +2
    The article did not like, some kind of muddy.
  29. kit_bellew
    kit_bellew 13 June 2016 23: 11
    +2
    In a good way, it is useful to publish two or three such articles a week on the site. Firstly, it’s fun to read demoshizoidny nonsense:
    Quote: article
    civil society - human rights defenders, democratic activists

    Quote: article
    The middle class is the traditional engine of revolution

    Quote: article
    At the beginning of May in Lugansk a monument “They Defended the Homeland” was unveiled, the composition of which includes four figures: a Cossack, a veteran of the Afghan war, a young militia and a woman protected by them. This self-presentation once again confirms this new, unexpected portrait of a revolutionary.

    My selection wassat
    The passage about cultural scientists of the 80th level was especially impressed:
    Quote: article
    Therefore, among the Chechen separatists we see the poet Zelimkhan Yandarbiyev and the actor of the Grozny drama theater Akhmed Zakayev. Shakespearer Zviad Gamsakhurdia, who became president of Georgia, was soon deposed by modernist sculptor Tengiz Kitovani and film critic Jaba Ioseliani - and this list can be continued for a long time.

    Well, and secondly, they can not but rejoice the reader’s comments:
    Quote: Stock Officer
    signs of a revolutionary situation voiced by V.I. Lenin 100 years ago ("The Collapse of the Second International, 1915) are still relevant

    Excuse me, what signs are you talking about? What the tops can’t, but the lower classes don’t want? Ha! What a situation it was: top РјРѕРіР »Ryo to live in the old way, just in a new way they paid more; Well, the lower classes as it was x ... y the drum is left;
    Quote: MBDA
    After those who are slighted by the state appear, then they can then be "paid well", and not create a paid army from scratch.

    Well, yes, of course, a lot of the highest ranks of the Russian Empire, demanding the abdication of Nicholas II, were thoroughly infringed on the state. Oh yes! It was probably the middle class! The driving force of all revolutions! wassat
    Not that I approve of Nicholas II as an intelligent sovereign and especially commander, but what gentlemen generals did in February 1917 (all as one rear rats), braking riots in Petrograd, Kronstadt, etc. - This is a direct violation of the oath and betrayal. And this is at a time when the situation on the fronts of the First World War was already more than six months as broken in our favor. Having google and google.
    In Ukraine, there was no revolution. As the oligarchy of the ancient sample was there, it remained. And about civil society in the person of ganjuberserkov I think I’ll keep silent human rights defenders hi
  30. kit_bellew
    kit_bellew 13 June 2016 23: 31
    0
    In general, the article is fiercely, frantically delivers. Guys, write more! It is a pity that it is impossible to put a mark here "two for knowledge, plus for diligence" wassat
    1. kon125
      kon125 13 June 2016 23: 54
      -2
      .that this is some kind of trend, articles are constantly appearing on the site, not about military topics, but some runs that are groping for lines of division.
      In relation to red and white, on a national basis, etc.
      And on a social basis.
      Yes, let the experts sitting here from non-military, adjacent, so to speak structures speak out and explain where to look for rioters.
      - 1Instigators and ideologists. all stripes. Offended. In a broad sense. Failed policies.
      Retired criminal businessmen.
      Nazis, pagans, adherents of anti-systemic cults.
      racists.
      Another interesting layer is the community of securities traders, stock speculators.
      Here is a nutrient medium. They have information and contacts in the USA, they attend training there, regularly hold seminars, we’ll raise a frenzy on any crises. Insider information and tips, in the USA. They have rookery there, as Zheglov would say. They live in Russia, apartments in London. Here they are the group that initiates the revolution.
      Justify, as they say in well-known communities.
      What is revolution. This is devastation, chaos, loss of property. Who is it fearless?
      Those who have it in the place where it takes place does not have material values. We add two and two.
      The chaos in Russia has only two beneficiaries. Capital outside of Russia. International corporations.
      And stock speculators inside it, they have nothing material, they can quickly concentrate their funds, and in case of chaos they can buy a piece of the Motherland cheaply ... this is the ABC, this is their direct investment, since ancient times, all the burglars have been credited by usurers .. At that time how the indigenous population will lose a lot.
      Skilled political technologists who will give money to informal Nazi and pseudo-patriotic associations will become tools and guides for financiers.
  31. Borus017
    Borus017 13 June 2016 23: 43
    0
    Thanks to the authors, an important topic has been raised. Article plus - as a short piece of "on the topic". Of course, in reality there are many more working factors. The siloviki, in my opinion, were dragged in in vain. Consider the Maidan and the DPR / LPR war - Ukraine and linearly transferring to the Russian Federation is a mistake.
    1. kit_bellew
      kit_bellew 14 June 2016 00: 09
      0
      Quote: Vladimir 1964
      The problem raised in the article is really serious and requires a corresponding attitude.

      Quote: 31rus2
      Dear authors, thank you for the article, it has long been asked.

      Quote: PKK
      The author was pleased, clearly revealed the topic that hung in the air.

      Quote: Borus01
      Thanks to the authors, an important topic has been raised.

      Dear transmission, on Saturday, almost crying,
      All Kanatchikova dacha to the TV was torn,
      Instead of eating, washing, pricking and forgetting,
      The whole insane hospital at the screen gathered.
      Quote: Beef Tannen
      Ale, McFly! Is there anyone at home?

      From the point of view of banal erudition, an undoubtedly important topic has been raised. But what topic?
      Quote: article
      Contrary to expectations, the crisis is leading not civil society - human rights activists, democratic activists, but representatives of traditional, more closed structures - veteran organizations, Cossacks and nationalists

      This is the main topic of the article. Instead of Herzen, Ogarev, Chernyshevsky and others like them - suddenly Bakunin, Vera Zasulich, Alexander Ulyanov and hell knows who else. The mind is incomprehensible!
      Quote: +100500
      How can this be? !!
      I sincerely hope that the people whose quotes I cited above are just graphomaniacs who do not care if they could write, but why and on what topic - this is the tenth thing. Because otherwise it turns out that they either did not learn history, or provocateurs.
      PS: By the way, why grant civilians and LGBTrace are not ranked among civil society?
  32. The comment was deleted.
  33. kon125
    kon125 14 June 2016 00: 33
    -2
    Indeed, the Military Review portal is turning ...
  34. Pavel Koltunov
    Pavel Koltunov 14 June 2016 01: 32
    -2
    Quote: kon125
    . "Russia has exhausted the limit of revolutions."


    The generals said ... Well, well, what do you think? Or a warrior thinks bad, hey generals Incidentally, in the 17th revolution and the civil war, soldiers (with generals) of the tsarist army willingly sided with the Workers 'and Peasants' Red Army = volunteers.
    The "transformation" of capitalism into socialism occurs through revolution and nothing else. The authors tried to consider the driving forces, including the generals, of the future revolution in the CIS.
  35. Ros 56
    Ros 56 14 June 2016 07: 26
    0
    It’s not necessary to take such publications unambiguously, but this is definitely an article-warning to those in power, do not bury your guys in their pursuit to fill their pockets, do at least something for the country and for people, people don’t need reports and beautiful pictures. The number of stores and malls is growing, and the number of existing enterprises is decreasing. From the Urals to the Far East there is nowhere and no one to work on. God forbid the situation explodes, the Donbass will seem like flowers in the garden, and then that's it, we kirdyk. No one will gather the country, neither God, nor the king and not the hero. Wow, even the International itself was remembered.
    So think, rulers, you can’t allow such a stratification of society, otherwise they will bury it with their pockets.