Write this article encouraged me to read the publication "Washington's Last Dream" on KONT At first, a simple comment arose, but as it was compiled, it became apparent that the problem was much wider, which means that a detailed explanation cannot be avoided. The author does not just talk about the upcoming Third World War, he formulated extremely similarly all the alarmist forecasts, the number of which has increased significantly over the past year. Moreover, the farther, the more friendly the media becomes the support of an extremely emasculated primitive: the West is afraid of Russia's strengthening so much that it is ready to go to a direct hot war with it. Which, of course, will immediately spill over into the Third World War. With all the accompanying clichés in the form of throws tanks NATO to Moscow and the exchange of strategic nuclear strikes. Well, or forcing our tank armies of the Vistula, Oder and Rhine. For nothing, have we already begun to restore one such one! This, of course, is only my private opinion, however, I believe the author is categorically mistaken in his estimates. Let's try to put aside the stamps and rise above the situation.
What kind of threat can Russia constitute to the West? The country, with a population of 145 million. will conquer united Europe with a population of 750 million? Seriously? And in the appendix to that, she also the United States with their 325 million win / occupy? Why don't they bomb China with its 1,37 billion? Because Beijing has a nuclear weaponwhich he will "answer" immediately? So Russia also has it, and obviously more and more perfect, but for some reason the West does not frighten it. Strange, isn't it?
Maybe Russia is some other threat, for example, financial? Well, there, having accumulated 100500 ohrenilionov dough, Moscow will just come and buy everything to immediately disassemble and take it to itself? Factories - for the Urals. Road surface - to Siberia. Houses - to the Far East. Again, no. The volume of Russian direct accumulated investment in Europe and the United States is about 2% of China’s foreign investment and even less of the amount of money that Arabs have invested in the EU and the US.
What then? Maybe in Russia absolutely crazy and reckless scumbags came to power, dreaming to immediately use nuclear weapons in order to turn the whole world into one “cleansing ashes”? Also somehow not at all like.
Does Russia refuse to play according to Western economic rules? And what? According to the World Bank for 2014 year global GDP is 108,4 trillion. dollars. However, the decisive factor in it is the total share of the leading developed countries (about 30 of the states from the 193 on the planet existing), which is approximately 72 trillion. USD Total Western GDP 18,4 trillion US + 17,4 trillion. EU = 35,8 trillion or 53,3% of GDP of the leading economies of the world. Plus separately 18 trillion. China - 25% of it. These three players together make up 78,3% of the entire global economy. Russia's GDP barely exceeds 3,7 trillion. or 5,1% of the world. Five and one tenth percent, Karl! Fence and forget what the name was! What problems? Poles will have nowhere to put their apples, and the Finns - their milk? And what? The sanctions will soon begin the third year, and the Western economy has not failed at all from the problems of the Poles, the Balts and the Scandinavians. Small funny difficulties, yes, but no more.
So why would Russia so demonically diligently demonize and draw from it Mordor, the wall of Darkness slowly creeping from the horizon into the “world of people”? Why these talks about the insurmountable contradictions between Russia and the West, which can not be resolved without the Great War? And the contradictions, what are they manifested in? Strange as it may sound, however, in reality there are no such particularly deep fundamentally insurmountable contradictions between us and them. As well as the objective reasons for the inevitability of the Great War - as well. Everything is much simpler and fundamentally different.
The West has lost solidity. Uniform and solid, he was not before, you should not flatter yourself, but then he had someone to rob in the outside world. Individual countries could throw little tricks at each other, build tricks and weave intrigues, but everything was done, firstly, utterly not publicly, secondly, it did not affect the main principle: we, the civilizers, rob the rest of savages. All their differences were something of a minor friction between relatives within the clan. They are important and serious, but the clan has always stood against the rest of the world as a united front. The problem is that the outside world is over. Totally. Rob no one else. All that there is delicious, or already scooped up to the bottom, or already belongs to some "gentleman from the West." The West has never been able to live solely with its work. All his well-being in the closest way based on a model of the economy, which is based only on robbery.
With the only difference that in the days of the Crusaders, he literally expressed himself — he came, took valuables, took it with him, and burned the rest — and today this is called foreign investment. Although the essence remains the same. Came, bought cheaply, became the owner, thereby forcing the local to work for themselves, took the profit and took it with him. In an ordinary economy, the profit, even if it had settled in the pocket of the oligarch, still remained within the national territory. The oligarchs were spent on the palaces, but they were built by local hard workers from local materials. The rich merchants good roads and bridges laid primarily for their own benefit, but in the end all enjoyed them. Patrons donated money to museums, monuments, institutes of their own name or funds that pay access to education to the poor. And these foreign investors take profits to spend it on the same thing, but only at home. Those. roads, bridges and educational grants that only their people can use.
However, today the world is changing. China and Russia are beginning to block access to plundering their wealth to the West. It is still possible to plow and plow to full success, but in general the process has already gained momentum and reached the level from which the Western model of the economy no longer has the resources to function. Here is the system and went into the dressing. The West no longer sees itself as a common gang with a single interest, in which "one for all and all for one." To survive, the Germans need all the resources of the rest of Europe. Only this will allow Berlin, which has its own GDP (by PPP, 2014 g) in 3,7 trillion. dollars to take a profit from the entire EU GDP in 18,4 trillion. dollars and thus preserve for themselves the usual high standard of living, as well as dictate the rules of the rest of the world "how he should live." Exactly the same plans, but strictly in their favor, are trying to implement all the others. First of all, France (2,57 trillion), Great Britain (2,56 trillion) and even Poland (0,94 trillion), although the Polish claims look frankly ridiculous. And the United States wants to eat them all, both to ensure that the cumulative profits are consumed in their favor, and to prolong their political domination in the world.
What does Russia have to do with it? She needs strictly as a scarecrow. It should be recognized that Russia for this role is the only, and, moreover, ideal, candidate. It is large, several times larger than Europe in size. It is rich, above all with raw materials and energy resources. It is technologically advanced enough to have a strong army and demonstrate really formidable armaments, for a number of which it has already clearly surpassed the level of the West. It is quite “not like that” in the sense of culture. Especially in the field of "Western democratic values", for example, such as tolerance and the rights of minorities, primarily sexual. She publicly demonstrates her unwillingness to merge into the Western world, especially as a powerless colony. And with all this, it is adequate! The latter is especially important. It’s all there Islamic radicals can be offended by some stupid act of some individual American or European and begin to organize mass terrorist attacks like the massacre in Paris. And Russia is not. She understands too well the geopolitical responsibility inherent in the status of a great power. I emphasize that it is responsibility, and not weakness or cowardice at all, as populists or liberals like to shout about it.
For whom is this scarecrow meant? For internal use only. For millennia, the best, sometimes the only, means of rallying the motley crowd was the presence of an external enemy. The more terrible, the better. The Western elites, who are becoming isolated, are in such an acute need today. From this, they unite and swing the bogey of the Russian military threat. That is why they so fiercely popularize the idea of the “approaching Great War”. For only this can create the appearance of the validity of your own ambitions and the justification of claims to "you must give your money to me."
So it is very good that Russia does not go into hysterics at the slightest pretext, as it happens in Europe, and is not going to attack anyone, and does not intend to take anything away. For, on their own initiative to go to Russia in a real war, the first in the West are no fools. Ukraine? And who said she is Europe? This is a strange country, for some reason, the "mad cow milk." Poland? A country with an economy in 3,97 times smaller than the Russian, a population of 3,76 times smaller and the size of the army in 80 thousand people, which in number is inferior even to the armed forces of the LC? Indeed? Oh, yes, I forgot. By the year 2019, the Poles are going to double the size of their armed forces, bringing them up to as many as 150 thousand. Does this general change somehow fundamentally change? The Poles themselves think quite differently. They say bluntly that “if something happens,” the task of the Polish army, as in 1939, is only to hold out until the approach of military units from other NATO countries. German battalion panzer, French foreign legion, British "red uniforms" and all kinds of American "green berets". Seriously obliged to fight strictly someone else, not Poles. However, the irony is that everyone in the West, the Balts, the British, the French, the Germans, the Belgians, the Dutch and even the political leadership of the United States think exactly the same way in the West. None of the Western countries, even in theory, is going to bear the brunt of the war only on their shoulders. Just pick it up. And also that each "I" got off with the minimum possible participation. Best of all - the rear. Even better - purely technical. And ideally, in general, so that it can be limited to only one "kind word" in the style of "Je suis Charlie". Well, or there are small things in the metropolitan area to depict something sentimental. What, with such a psychology of elites, can there be a Great War?
However, joyfully throwing caps in the air should not be in a hurry. Because the Great War is already underway. It began with the events of August 2008, and continues to this day. Only it is conducted by methods and methods that are very different from traditional ones. There are no "aine marches marches", "zweine marches marches", "dri marchers marches". And in general, it goes not in Russia, it rages in Europe. We hear its echo and neighbors sometimes fly heads, capable of causing devastating fires. There, for example, from the firehead in 2011, Libya burned to the ground. In the same year Syria flared up, the civil war which continues to this day. Egypt almost burned out. Clearly puffed up in Turkey. But in the main theater of warfare, the armies are not fighting, for the example of Libya itself demonstrates the senselessness of conducting classical warfare for purposes of conquest. In modern war, victory is achieved at the price of complete destruction of civilization in all theaters, the winner gets the ruins, from which there is nothing left to take. At least - to take quickly, to immediately turn into a specie. And now not territorial states, but corporations are fighting among themselves. They need to have time to show the profit from the war in the next quarterly, the edge - the annual report for shareholders. To seize the ruins, so that after ten years from my own pocket, invest in restoration, before there is a chance to get the first profit, not their option.
The world has changed, gentlemen. By inertia, it still seems to consist of states, but in reality, the First Gulf War (January 17 - February 28, 1991) was initiated not by America as a state, but by American transnational corporations that used US state institutions as a technical tool. We are all somehow accustomed to considering the state superior to any private company, regardless of its size. In the real world, this is no longer the case. In Russia, the state model is still close to this ideal, although even in our country it does not fully correspond to it. In Europe, the degree of inconsistency is higher, although in general, the financial well-being of the lion's share of large corporate capital is still strongly tied to its influence, primarily on its nation states. But in the United States, the picture is completely different. Take a list of America's XNUMX largest economic pillars, who are there? JP Morgan Chase. General Electric. Citigroup. AT&T. Wal-Mart. Pfizer. PepsiCo. Coca-Cola. Cisco. Apple. Microsoft. Intel. Oracle. American Express. Boeing. Google. Absolutely the entire list consists of transnational corporations that profit from the economies of all countries of the world. They are American only at the place of registration of the headquarters. America, as a state, is only a socio-political instrument for achieving their economic goals. Simply because the United States has a legal place in the UN Security Council, and some Phillip Morris International cannot get it there for any money. At least for now.
American TNCs need to conquer the only available market for them - Europe. But to conquer in such a way as to not turn it into useless ruins in the process. Therefore, instead of tanks, bomber, cruise missiles and multiple rocket launchers, TTIP negotiations are used. And in order for the "partners" to be more self-explanatory, they create numerous problems on the periphery in various ways. The Middle East turned out to be the first to be scorched precisely because it was largely the food base of the European "national", i.e. focused on the preservation of their national governments, corporations of Germany, France and the UK. And in the confrontation with Russia, by stirring up a civil war in Ukraine, American TNCs invaded Europe for the same purpose. To maximize the EU benefits from economic cooperation with Russia.
However, one should not think that all the above gives grounds for complacency. They say that this is not our war, even if they kill each other, but we will live more peacefully. Not a damn thing like that. Any war, regardless of the form of its conduct, is always aimed at destroying the infrastructure of the enemy. In the broadest sense of the word. From the literal, - to bomb bridges and power stations, - to the system one, - to violate in any way the fundamentals of the functioning of the state control system of society. Although Abbott Laboratories or Google are not hammering across Tomorrow or Berlin, the problem of blocking migrants in the EU copes with the task of blocking the work of European state mechanisms.
The general destabilization of the system of state administration of society leads to the destruction of this very society. In every sense, from economic, to ideological. Sly Europe falls apart and the speed of destructive processes increases. However, problems in the US are growing too. Not only in shale mining. In the current economic environment, it has been a financial bubble right from the start. It is far more important that the reduction of the food supply base of the American segment of Western capitalism led to the drying up of the purchasing power of the US domestic market. On so much significant that the financial shoaling of consumers has become a major obstacle to returning production capacity from China back to America. In order for them to remain competitive, their total robotization is required, and this is a very big amount of money, which is no longer a fact that they can fight off in sales within a clear current planning horizon. As a result, the total energy demand has begun to drastically decrease in the United States. First of all - in the electric. The matter has already reached the point where the number of unprofitable NPPs has begun to grow, some of which, as announced, will most likely be closed by the end of this year.
This is the practical embodiment in real life of the abstract concept of "systemic destruction of infrastructure". Only America is far from us and the 325 million people living there will be enough local territory to somehow reduce the urbanization density of megacities. Another thing - Europe, 750-ty millions of people who, in the event of a significant disintegration of the state system, really have nowhere to go. Their usual level of well-being was no less than half dependent on the income received by European business outside Europe. Moreover, to a large extent it was also provided with social subsidies from the state budgets. The destruction of this system at some point will lead to the beginning of a rapid decline in social programs, an increase in unemployment and an overall total decline in the standard of living. Not for a couple - three percent, not for a tenth - twentieth part, but at once in two, three, and even four times. In other words, about half of Europeans very quickly become redundant. EU internal resources will not be able to provide them with any means of livelihood. From the word - nothing at all.
It is not difficult to imagine how then events in Europe will develop further. When just a couple of tens of thousands of people are laid off at once, Paris is captured by gangs of marauders. The Germans with the Austrians in this sense are noticeably calmer, but they often sneak up to mass pogroms, although they are of a short-term local nature. But this is only until beyond survival will not be at least about the 200 millions of Europeans at once. Then all the tolerance will fall down from them, like old plaster from a damp wall. With all the attendant charms, in the form of religious, ethnic, ideological and property squabbles, enhanced by a progressive level of impunity, as the police no longer come to the cries of the victims.
And the most unpleasant thing for us is that the lion's share of this crowd of angry and desperate people, from Europe, which quickly turned into one huge Walk-field, will not be difficult to guess in which direction. And not at all to Australia or the USA with Canada. Far away across the ocean, and there too the situation will be no better than European. But Russia, with all its flaws, will abruptly begin to seem the coveted sea of calm and security. Even with the prevailing views among EU citizens about us as a grim Mordor. Because this shaft will roll to us. It will be very large, larger than our own population, and very muddy, according to the ethical, religious, ethnic composition and level of law-abiding. And what kind of law-abiding can there be, if there is only horror, destruction, hunger and death behind your back? We see that for Europe the resettlement of last year only 1,9 million "refugees" ended ... and they will be moved a hundred times more towards us.
So, even though the Great War has been going on for the ninth year, the hardest and largest battles are still waiting for us ahead. Only they will look completely different from what they are trying to predict today. Not an exchange of massive nuclear strikes between Russia and the West, but, so to speak, the tsunami of the Great Exodus, which, under certain circumstances, can wash us off.
However, a certain hope is inspired by the fact that, judging by external manifestations, Putin’s team is very seriously and very thoroughly preparing for something like this.
So there is a chance to win ...